LAB to get a poll lead before Oct 12th – new betting market – politicalbetting.com

Interesting polling from savanta comres on faith in the uk;

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Tearfund_Prayer-Survey_all-respondents.pdf

Here’s the BBC’s writeup;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58681075

Table 173 on p205 gives average self-declared income by faith, which is quite intriguing. Sikh’s earn (slightly) more than Jews in the sample, which busts a stereotype.

P207, those who pray every day have significantly higher income than those who pray less regularly. We can have fun arguing about causation with that!

Other than that, Muslims are pretty strong believers, more strongly believing that their prayers are answered vs most other religions/Christian denominations. Muslims who pray are also much more likely to have children compared with other religions/denominations.

Andy_JS said:

williamglenn said:

Mali's PM told the UN General Assembly that France abandoned his country with a "unilateral" decision to withdraw troops, and his government was justified to "seek other partners" - likely to be Russian paramilitaries

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1441885472716906497

British forces were assisting the French troops in Mali. I don't know whether they're still there or not.

Op. Barkhane doesn't actually conclude until next year and the British contribution will continue until then.

It's being replaced by EU Task Force Takuba with which, for reasons of performative nationalism, the UK will have no involvement. The Danish Air Force will be providing the air mobility.

Good morning, everyone.

F1: browsing the markets for value. Still a suggestion that Mercedes might force a new engine on Bottas to mess with Verstappen. Think that's a dumb idea, myself, but there we are.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: browsing the markets for value. Still a suggestion that Mercedes might force a new engine on Bottas to mess with Verstappen. Think that's a dumb idea, myself, but there we are.

That’s a really silly idea. Let Bottas try and get up to second behind Lewis, to maximise the constructors’ points, there’s McLarens, Aston Martins and Williamses who can stop Max getting too many points.

Weather looks like showers all day, so the race could end up being quite turbulent. Note that the scheduled start is 13:00 UK time, not the usual 14:00.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I saw the start time. I prefer that, I think.

I don’t! That’s 16:00 for me, instead of 17:00, on a work day. Not sure I can bunk off that early, so will have to watch it delayed. Hoping for rain and a one-hour delay

Safety car seems a god bet, at almost any price.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, working on a Sunday? Alas.

Don't they have Sundays on Fridays out there?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. JohnL, that sounds unnecessarily confusing.

It's like Australians having Christmas in the summer and asking Santa for an Ashes win.

Sandpit said:

Not an awful lot of sport to go now - it’s going to be the Olympians, Emma Raducanu, and Lewis Hamilton if he wins the title several also rans.

FTFY 😀

Those who got on her before she won the tournament have the right to feel unbearably smug.

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Maybe it widens the gap between the in work and out of work, including pensioners? Globalisation pops it’s head around the corner, excited by British workers pricing themselves out of a job? Can nice pay rises have an impact on inflation? Are they sure to be uniform across the country, that is it helps levelling up rather than throw light on it’s not level?

I cant think of a government ever aiming for a "low wage economy" although the public sector probably feel that the last 12 years have been one of low wage growth and higher taxes.

ping said:

Interesting polling from savanta comres on faith in the uk;

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Tearfund_Prayer-Survey_all-respondents.pdf

Here’s the BBC’s writeup;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58681075

Table 173 on p205 gives average self-declared income by faith, which is quite intriguing. Sikh’s earn (slightly) more than Jews in the sample, which busts a stereotype.

P207, those who pray every day have significantly higher income than those who pray less regularly. We can have fun arguing about causation with that!

Other than that, Muslims are pretty strong believers, more strongly believing that their prayers are answered vs most other religions/Christian denominations. Muslims who pray are also much more likely to have children compared with other religions/denominations.

There could be mild scepticism, especially in non Bame parts of the country, at the claim on the BBC item linked above that 49% of 18-34 attend worship at least once a month, compared with 16% of over 55s.

If it is true, something startling is going on in our culture.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

Let’s just say the Ukrainian half of my household is the happier this morning, following the overnight boxing match.

One more name scratched off the SPoTY nominations list. Can’t see any golfers on it either, unless there’s quite the turnaround at Whistling Straights this evening.

Not an awful lot of sport to go now - it’s going to be the Olympians, Emma Raducanu, and Lewis Hamilton if he wins the title.

Probably not Lewis Hamilton again because, if we assume the shortlist is compiled in November, there will still be three or four grands prix to come and it is unlikely he will have clinched the championship by then. Emma Raducanu is a best-price1/12 and a lot less in places.

The final race of the season is on the afternoon of the public vote, 12th December.

I’ve got tickets to the race, so won’t be watching the awards live, will probably wake up in the morning and need to find the easiest way to send @Philip_Thompson £100.

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, working on a Sunday? Alas.

Don't they have Sundays on Fridays out there?

Yes. Their God expects you to tell him or her how wonderful he is on Friday, while ours mostly listens on Sunday.

You can see how somebody from Mars might be confused. Or maybe the Martian God is a Tuesday person.

Ummm…it’s *the same* God.

No wonder He's got a worship rota going among the major faiths then. Smart guy.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Not an awful lot of sport to go now - it’s going to be the Olympians, Emma Raducanu, and Lewis Hamilton if he wins the title several also rans.

FTFY 😀

Those who got on her before she won the tournament have the right to feel unbearably smug.

Not sure. If anyone backed Emma after Wimbledon, yes, but during the US Open she was generally the same price for the tennis and SPotY, if not longer, so arguably SPotY was a mugs' bet. At least, that is what I told myself. I backed Raducanu for the US Open at 9/1 which was probably at the quarter-final stage or maybe the round before. One PBer was on at 100/1 iirc.

Betfair has opened SPotY "top 3" and "without ER" markets. Pretty thin atm.

@NIAbbot: Foreign lorry drivers: please forget all the stuff we said about wanting you to go back to where you came from, we were kidding. As a special offer, we will allow you to come back to help us for a limited period before we tell you to get out again.

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Wages should equal the marginal productivity of labour (see Wicksell et al.). Any attempt to increase it above that level will hit some or all of the following:

a) if companies take the hit, corporate profits, causing reduced investment and employment
b) if exporters take the hit, exports, causing balance of payments problems
c) if consumers take the hit, retail prices, causing a redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers.

You can't pay-rise yourself to prosperity, as we and the Italians demonstrated conclusively in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the medium and long runs it's productivity that counts.

There is the chance of an outlier, like that previous YouGov, but beyond that it is unlikely given that there seems to be very little the Tories can do that will stop 40% or so of the electorate supporting them.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

AIUI, France and Germany pay more for drivers than the UK does - because under the EU rules, more Eastern European workers found it prefereble to work in the UK so supply of labour was higher. Now there’s no longer FoM, and no new drivers coming over, the supply of labour is more restricted and the price is going up - heading towards the same price as we see in France and Germany.

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

AIUI, France and Germany pay more for drivers than the UK does - because under the EU rules, more Eastern European workers found it prefereble to work in the UK so supply of labour was higher. Now there’s no longer FoM, and no new drivers coming over, the supply of labour is more restricted and the price is going up - heading towards the same price as we see in France and Germany.

But wages are higher across the board in Germany ( and many other European countries besides ). it can't be be isolated to a short-term process in one sector.

ThomasNashe said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Maybe it widens the gap between the in work and out of work, including pensioners? Globalisation pops it’s head around the corner, excited by British workers pricing themselves out of a job? Can nice pay rises have an impact on inflation? Are they sure to be uniform across the country, that is it helps levelling up rather than throw light on it’s not level?

The big problem with inflation is that it could force interest-rate rises. Then we’d all be f*cked.

Not people with savings who are fucked by low interest rates.

WhisperingOracle said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

AIUI, France and Germany pay more for drivers than the UK does - because under the EU rules, more Eastern European workers found it prefereble to work in the UK so supply of labour was higher. Now there’s no longer FoM, and no new drivers coming over, the supply of labour is more restricted and the price is going up - heading towards the same price as we see in France and Germany.

But wages are higher across the board in Germany ( and many other European countries besides ). it can't be be isolated to a short-term process in one sector.

The UK chose to gut its trade union movement, so making it much harder for employees to work together to secure good wages. There are any number of people on this board and beyond proclaiming the need for better salaries across multiple sectors who have spent years routinely denouncing each and every strike ever called designed to secure higher pay and improved conditions.

ping said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Maybe it widens the gap between the in work and out of work, including pensioners? Globalisation pops it’s head around the corner, excited by British workers pricing themselves out of a job? Can nice pay rises have an impact on inflation? Are they sure to be uniform across the country, that is it helps levelling up rather than throw light on it’s not level?

The big problem with inflation is that it could force interest-rate rises. Then we’d all be f*cked.

Not people with savings who are fucked by low interest rates.

True. Although I think, if rates went up, savers would get fucked by the government (any government) desperate for cash.

If rates go up, savers will have already been REFUKed by galumphing inflation.

Fishing said:

ping said:

Fishing said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Wages should equal the marginal productivity of labour (see Wicksell et al.). Any attempt to increase it above that level will hit some or all of the following:

a) if companies take the hit, corporate profits, causing reduced investment and employment
b) if exporters take the hit, exports, causing balance of payments problems
c) if consumers take the hit, retail prices, causing a redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers.

You can't pay-rise yourself to prosperity, as we and the Italians demonstrated conclusively in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the medium and long runs it's productivity that counts.

C) the redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers

^ that’s what is happening, imo. Rebalancing from capital to labour is exactly what is needed after a long period in which govt policy was (in many ways, still is) designed to achieve the opposite.

The little guy without assets and/or inheritance, and only his labour to sell is being a little bit less screwed. That’s great. If it keeps going, he might even be able to afford a house, one day.

I'm afraid it won't work like that. Given that supply is constrained, if more people can afford lower-class houses, house prices will rise - in fact, they're likely to rise faster in price than manufactured goods, which are set to a large extent by global prices. The solution to the house problem is either more houses or fewer people. I favour the former.

Ultimately, the little guy wants to pay himself more than he earns. Which is understandable, and works in the short term, but in the long run will be counter-productive. That's why Mrs Thatcher rightly destroyed union power in the 1980s.

The process was considerably exaggerated and excessive, leading to many of the structural economic problems of the UK and US today. It was a scorched-earth where these economies needed something much more subtle - continental even, you might say.

WhisperingOracle said:

Fishing said:

ping said:

Fishing said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Wages should equal the marginal productivity of labour (see Wicksell et al.). Any attempt to increase it above that level will hit some or all of the following:

a) if companies take the hit, corporate profits, causing reduced investment and employment
b) if exporters take the hit, exports, causing balance of payments problems
c) if consumers take the hit, retail prices, causing a redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers.

You can't pay-rise yourself to prosperity, as we and the Italians demonstrated conclusively in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the medium and long runs it's productivity that counts.

C) the redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers

^ that’s what is happening, imo. Rebalancing from capital to labour is exactly what is needed after a long period in which govt policy was (in many ways, still is) designed to achieve the opposite.

The little guy without assets and/or inheritance, and only his labour to sell is being a little bit less screwed. That’s great. If it keeps going, he might even be able to afford a house, one day.

I'm afraid it won't work like that. Given that supply is constrained, if more people can afford lower-class houses, house prices will rise - in fact, they're likely to rise faster in price than manufactured goods, which are set to a large extent by global prices. The solution to the house problem is either more houses or fewer people. I favour the former.

Ultimately, the little guy wants to pay himself more than he earns. Which is understandable, and works in the short term, but in the long run will be counter-productive. That's why Mrs Thatcher rightly destroyed union power in the 1980s.

The process was considerably exaggerated and excessive, leading to many of the structural economic problems in the UK and US today. It was a scorched-earth where these economies needed something much more subtle - continental even, you might say.

aka 'You Were Only Supposed To Blow The Bloody Doors Off'

SouthamObserver said:

Given that there are plentiful supplies of fuel, when do we expect the panic buying to end? I am hoping that once the idiots have all filled up, the rest of us will be able to.

The queues outside the petrol station next to my flat have finally after 36 hours gone. I don’t know whether that’s because all the idiots have now filled up, or because they’ve run out of petrol. But at least some peace has been restored.

Fishing said:

ping said:

Fishing said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Wages should equal the marginal productivity of labour (see Wicksell et al.). Any attempt to increase it above that level will hit some or all of the following:

a) if companies take the hit, corporate profits, causing reduced investment and employment
b) if exporters take the hit, exports, causing balance of payments problems
c) if consumers take the hit, retail prices, causing a redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers.

You can't pay-rise yourself to prosperity, as we and the Italians demonstrated conclusively in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the medium and long runs it's productivity that counts.

C) the redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers

^ that’s what is happening, imo. Rebalancing from capital to labour is exactly what is needed after a long period in which govt policy was (in many ways, still is) designed to achieve the opposite.

The little guy without assets and/or inheritance, and only his labour to sell is being a little bit less screwed. That’s great. If it keeps going, he might even be able to afford a house, one day.

I'm afraid it won't work like that. Given that supply is constrained, if more people can afford lower-class houses, house prices will rise - in fact, they're likely to rise faster in price than manufactured goods, which are set to a large extent by global prices. The solution to the house problem is either more houses or fewer people. I favour the former.

Ultimately, the little guy wants to pay himself more than he earns. Which is understandable, and works in the short term, but in the long run will be counter-productive. That's why Mrs Thatcher rightly destroyed union power in the 1980s.

Pff

With respect, that’s bollox

The stagnation of wages at the bottom end has been a complete disaster when coupled with ever increasing house price/earnings ratios. The losers in this game are the ones who have benefitted the most over the past few decades from rising asset prices.

The little guy, reliant on only his labour, has been paid less than he earns for too long.

eek said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Maybe it widens the gap between the in work and out of work, including pensioners? Globalisation pops it’s head around the corner, excited by British workers pricing themselves out of a job? Can nice pay rises have an impact on inflation? Are they sure to be uniform across the country, that is it helps levelling up rather than throw light on it’s not level?

The big problem with inflation is that it could force interest-rate rises. Then we’d all be f*cked.

Not people with savings who are fucked by low interest rates.

If inflation kicks off and we don’t increase interest rates we are equally f*cked.

From what I can tell, that’s the governments plan.

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that there are plentiful supplies of fuel, when do we expect the panic buying to end? I am hoping that once the idiots have all filled up, the rest of us will be able to.

Would be nice if this was soon. Didn’t join the crazy, crazy so now having to ration trips, which means explaining to teenagers why I might not be able to take the to their sport clubs. Not a huge amount of fun.

All the petrol stations with 10 miles are cleaned out.

Yep, here too.

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

Coincidentally I was speaking to an ex HGV driver yesterday and he said whatever money they offer he wouldn’t be tempted back as (a) he loves his current job and (b) he hated being an HGV driver even though he earned more than he does now.

(No, he is not an Albanian taxi driver. He’s a fitness instructor at Chase Leisure Centre where I have been going for gym sessions to work on a muscle problem.)

We need to invest in automated HGVs as a matter of urgency. The technology is showing great promise in the US

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, working on a Sunday? Alas.

Don't they have Sundays on Fridays out there?

Yes. Their God expects you to tell him or her how wonderful he is on Friday, while ours mostly listens on Sunday.

You can see how somebody from Mars might be confused. Or maybe the Martian God is a Tuesday person.

Ummm…it’s *the same* God.

I would say that the Muslim God is quite clearly not the same as the Christian one, despite a certain amount of overlap in texts.

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

AIUI, France and Germany pay more for drivers than the UK does - because under the EU rules, more Eastern European workers found it prefereble to work in the UK so supply of labour was higher. Now there’s no longer FoM, and no new drivers coming over, the supply of labour is more restricted and the price is going up - heading towards the same price as we see in France and Germany.

Are the French or German drivers more productive?

Or do their customers pay less? Or are British haulier firms more profitable?

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, working on a Sunday? Alas.

Don't they have Sundays on Fridays out there?

Yes. Their God expects you to tell him or her how wonderful he is on Friday, while ours mostly listens on Sunday.

You can see how somebody from Mars might be confused. Or maybe the Martian God is a Tuesday person.

Ummm…it’s *the same* God.

S/he needs to sort out the communication, then, since self-contradiction isn't a good look for the omnipotent.

There is, to be pedantic, no English pronoun that clearly describes God. In Hebrew and Arabic God is referred to as neither male nor female, but there is no non-clumsy way of describing a person as ‘it’ in English, so ‘he’ was used as a shortcut.

What's wrong with "you"?

eek said:

SouthamObserver said:

eek said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

Simple.

For lower paid workers we allowed unlimited eu competition, heck there were factories in places where you needed to speak polish to get a job because the rest of the workforce was now polish.

That doesn’t exist in other parts of Europe, want job in France, you need to speak French. And a lot of Eastern Europeans speak English because that was what their tv consisted of (with subtitle in the local language)

Shorter read: we almost eliminated trade unions from the private sector.

Trade unions haven’t been able to control who was appointed since I can’t remember (was it the 70s?)

Which means that didn’t help here, companies wanted cheap labour willing to work for as little as possible and an Eastern European was a way better prospect than a uk school leaver.

Strong trade unions lead to better wages and better working conditions. They also ensure that the illegal discrimination that you are claiming took place would not be possible.

ping said:

Fishing said:

ping said:

Fishing said:

gealbhan said:

Our Tory government are going for a high wage economy. Are there any negatives to a high wage economy?

Wages should equal the marginal productivity of labour (see Wicksell et al.). Any attempt to increase it above that level will hit some or all of the following:

a) if companies take the hit, corporate profits, causing reduced investment and employment
b) if exporters take the hit, exports, causing balance of payments problems
c) if consumers take the hit, retail prices, causing a redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers.

You can't pay-rise yourself to prosperity, as we and the Italians demonstrated conclusively in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the medium and long runs it's productivity that counts.

C) the redistribution of wealth from non-workers to workers

^ that’s what is happening, imo. Rebalancing from capital to labour is exactly what is needed after a long period in which govt policy was (in many ways, still is) designed to achieve the opposite.

The little guy without assets and/or inheritance, and only his labour to sell is being a little bit less screwed. That’s great. If it keeps going, he might even be able to afford a house, one day.

I'm afraid it won't work like that. Given that supply is constrained, if more people can afford lower-class houses, house prices will rise - in fact, they're likely to rise faster in price than manufactured goods, which are set to a large extent by global prices. The solution to the house problem is either more houses or fewer people. I favour the former.

Ultimately, the little guy wants to pay himself more than he earns. Which is understandable, and works in the short term, but in the long run will be counter-productive. That's why Mrs Thatcher rightly destroyed union power in the 1980s.

Pff

With respect, that’s bollox

The stagnation of wages at the bottom end has been a complete disaster when coupled with ever increasing house price/earnings ratios. The losers in this game are the ones who have benefitted the most over the past few decades from rising asset prices.

The little guy, reliant on only his labour, has been paid less than he earns for too long.

With respect, that's bollox. House prices are set by inadequate supply, which is why they are far too high in the regions where people want to live, which have tight regulations, and low in those that don't.

More housebuilding would also benefit those at the lower end through more demand for their labour.

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

Coincidentally I was speaking to an ex HGV driver yesterday and he said whatever money they offer he wouldn’t be tempted back as (a) he loves his current job and (b) he hated being an HGV driver even though he earned more than he does now.

(No, he is not an Albanian taxi driver. He’s a fitness instructor at Chase Leisure Centre where I have been going for gym sessions to work on a muscle problem.)

You expect us to believe this story? You must take us for mugs.

I posted separately on Friday that a few fuel tanker drivers I know were looking at standard HGV driving as it’s now less hassle for the same money (and they don’t really care about more money)

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that there are plentiful supplies of fuel, when do we expect the panic buying to end? I am hoping that once the idiots have all filled up, the rest of us will be able to.

Would be nice if this was soon. Didn’t join the crazy, crazy so now having to ration trips, which means explaining to teenagers why I might not be able to take the to their sport clubs. Not a huge amount of fun.

All the petrol stations with 10 miles are cleaned out.

Yep, here too.

Mrs RP sent a photo yesterday from her vantage point in "Annie's Cakery" of a full forecourt and queue down the road at the little Gleaner station in Macduff. OK so we're all reliant on cars up here, but the transition from no real flap on Friday to all the big filling stations emptied by Saturday lunchtime was bonkers.

I wryly suggested she get down there and ask if they have a 3 pin you can plug your car into so you don't miss out.

This feels a bit different to previous panics. Not seen such a complete clean out before. I hope it get sorted out in the next 48hrs, but would not be surprised if it wasn’t.

eek said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

Simple.

For lower paid workers we allowed unlimited eu competition, heck there were factories in places where you needed to speak polish to get a job because the rest of the workforce was now polish.

That doesn’t exist in other parts of Europe, want job in France, you need to speak French. And a lot of Eastern Europeans speak English because that was what their tv consisted of (with subtitle in the local language)

Also Blair was idiotic enough to allow unrestricted immigration several years earlier than other western European countries, meaning that they were more likely to come here, because there were established communities.

He managed to screw over both much of rural Eastern Europe, which is trapped in a depopulating death spiral, and our own working class communities, which were deluged with cheap labour.

SouthamObserver said:

By relaxing the visa regime the government will have raised expectations that supply problems will now be resolved. By relaxing the visa regime in the way it has the government has almost certainly ensured that supply problems will not be resolved. There will either have to be further u-turns or this is going to be a long-term problem in multiple sectors.

Yes. Why yield to the pressure by allowing in 5,000 only? You lose the "no forrin" policy and you still don't "save Christmas". Stupid.

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that there are plentiful supplies of fuel, when do we expect the panic buying to end? I am hoping that once the idiots have all filled up, the rest of us will be able to.

Would be nice if this was soon. Didn’t join the crazy, crazy so now having to ration trips, which means explaining to teenagers why I might not be able to take the to their sport clubs. Not a huge amount of fun.

All the petrol stations with 10 miles are cleaned out.

Yep, here too.

Mrs RP sent a photo yesterday from her vantage point in "Annie's Cakery" of a full forecourt and queue down the road at the little Gleaner station in Macduff. OK so we're all reliant on cars up here, but the transition from no real flap on Friday to all the big filling stations emptied by Saturday lunchtime was bonkers.

I wryly suggested she get down there and ask if they have a 3 pin you can plug your car into so you don't miss out.

This feels a bit different to previous panics. Not seen such a complete clean out before. I hope it get sorted out in the next 48hrs, but would not be surprised if it wasn’t.

Panics always die down. The point I made on a local PB group was that there was no shortage up here. No problem with deliveries. Until people saw the panic 600 miles away and said "oh no!!!!" and went to fill up.

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/25/european-lorry-drivers-will-not-want-to-come-to-uk-warn-haulage-chiefs

European Road Hauliers Association says temporary visa scheme won't tempt many EU drivers to the UK because pay and conditions are better in the EU, in part thanks to new EU rules, while Brexit red tape at customs is a big disencentive to driving to the UK.
Rather bursts the bubble of those claiming we had to leave the EU to create a workers' paradise. Brexit = more red tape at the border + deregulation internally = fewer right for workers. It's a massive con perpetrated against the British working class by the Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world.

The truckers are all getting pay rises, I’m not sure they’re complaining too much.

The ERHA are also confusing cross-border freight traffic into the UK, with UK-based hauliers looking to recruit drivers from abroad.

If being in the EU undercut UK pay and conditions, how come pay and conditions are better in the EU than here? If the EU damages workers' rights, how come EU rules are more generous to workers than ours are?
AIUI the UK driver shortage affects both cross border and purely internal routes (and there is a lot of overlap between the two, one of the great benefits of the Single Market being that it gets rid of these artificial distinctions created by borders).

AIUI, France and Germany pay more for drivers than the UK does - because under the EU rules, more Eastern European workers found it prefereble to work in the UK so supply of labour was higher. Now there’s no longer FoM, and no new drivers coming over, the supply of labour is more restricted and the price is going up - heading towards the same price as we see in France and Germany.

But wages are higher across the board in Germany ( and many other European countries besides ). it can't be be isolated to a short-term process in one sector.

The UK chose to gut its trade union movement, so making it much harder for employees to work together to secure good wages. There are any number of people on this board and beyond proclaiming the need for better salaries across multiple sectors who have spent years routinely denouncing each and every strike ever called designed to secure higher pay and improved conditions.

Yes the PBers waving onions under their noses over the plight of the working classes in terms of pay bargaining do seem to have kept quiet over many decades of Toryism.

I suppose they will be backing the Nurses in their mooted industrial action, after all the number of vacancies are huge.

We do seem to be back to the Seventies (albeit with worse music) in terms of inflation, petrol queues and forthcoming power cuts.

Could I recommend getting ahead of the curve and buying candles before stocks run out?

My wife is on that already. Candles seem to be a lot more expensive than they used to be. And smellier!

Jonathan said:

Would be nice if the government actually thought about solving problems rather than creating headlines and defending their dogma against reality.

When you have a Peronist government run by journalists, you're not going to get anything other than what we have.

not_on_fire said:

Three month visas, what a joke. “ Hi Johnny Foreigner, please come and deliver our stuff for three months so Christmas will go smoothly. Then bugger off so we can enjoy it without you”

Yep, it’s not going to work but it does (at a cost to the Government) move the problem back to haulage companies.

Speaking to a friend yesterday, her son wishes to be a lorry driver but it takes time to find the £3k + to pay for the course as most haulage firms won’t pay for the training of new drivers.

That needs to be highlighted way more prominently to ensure the industry changes it shortsightedness.

The highlights of the Ryder cup seem to feature loads of Americans and John Rahm

not_on_fire said:

Three month visas, what a joke. “ Hi Johnny Foreigner, please come and deliver our stuff for three months so Christmas will go smoothly. Then bugger off so we can enjoy it without you”

Do you think it's a joke because it won't work or because it's unfair? Isn't this what happens/happened with fruit pickers?

Fishing said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, working on a Sunday? Alas.

Don't they have Sundays on Fridays out there?

Yes. Their God expects you to tell him or her how wonderful s/he is on Friday, while ours mostly listens on Sunday.

You can see how somebody from Mars might be confused. Or maybe the Martian God is a Tuesday person.

To be fair, he’s the same God so he’s just balancing his workload

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

Three month visas, what a joke. “ Hi Johnny Foreigner, please come and deliver our stuff for three months so Christmas will go smoothly. Then bugger off so we can enjoy it without you”

Do you think it's a joke because it won't work or because it's unfair? Isn't this what happens/happened with fruit pickers?

It won’t work. Fruit picking is itinerary work we’re you move to where the crops are at that moment in time.

Would you quit a lorry driving job for 3 months in the Uk and a risk of no job to return to when the UK kicks you out 3 months later.