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Davey reminds us of the threat his party poses in “blue wall” seats – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 19 in General
Davey reminds us of the threat his party poses in “blue wall” seats – politicalbetting.com

“Standing between the British people and our fair deal is a big blue wall”Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey tells his party conference “it’s up to us to tear it down” as he closes his conference speechhttps://t.co/R0tqSZh7pz pic.twitter.com/I98atlhfD0

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,969
    edited September 19
    COMMENTS NOW working
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,361
    Afternoon all :)

    Hardly a surprising strategy and it encompasses some of the breakthrough seats from 1997 where the LD tradition and strength has been quickest to recover.

    Much though we'd all like the LDs to win 450 seats at the next election, the truth is 25-30 seats would be at the top end of ambition and a solid mid-teens share of the vote. Whether that's enough to deprive the Conservatives of their majority will depend on events elsewhere and it's certainly no commitment to going into Government with Starmer.

    We know so little of Starmer's plan and vision for mid-2020s Britain and beyond, anyone can project anything. I'm not as convinced as some there will be huge areas of common ground between the LDs and Labour so we'll see.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,773
    3...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,476
    Don't they know it's "over" ..?

    How post-Brexit bureaucracy is driving up the cost of UK gardening https://on.ft.com/3tUFzIr
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,693
    Aukus forever
  • It would be great to know as a potential blue to orange switcher what Davey's vision is with taxes and spending?

    From the sound of it Davey was talking earlier this week about tax rises but I'm not sure which?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Hardly a surprising strategy and it encompasses some of the breakthrough seats from 1997 where the LD tradition and strength has been quickest to recover.

    Much though we'd all like the LDs to win 450 seats at the next election, the truth is 25-30 seats would be at the top end of ambition and a solid mid-teens share of the vote. Whether that's enough to deprive the Conservatives of their majority will depend on events elsewhere and it's certainly no commitment to going into Government with Starmer.

    We know so little of Starmer's plan and vision for mid-2020s Britain and beyond, anyone can project anything. I'm not as convinced as some there will be huge areas of common ground between the LDs and Labour so we'll see.

    In 2001, 2005 and 2010 they were aiming for 60 to 80 seats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,698
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Hardly a surprising strategy and it encompasses some of the breakthrough seats from 1997 where the LD tradition and strength has been quickest to recover.

    Much though we'd all like the LDs to win 450 seats at the next election, the truth is 25-30 seats would be at the top end of ambition and a solid mid-teens share of the vote. Whether that's enough to deprive the Conservatives of their majority will depend on events elsewhere and it's certainly no commitment to going into Government with Starmer.

    We know so little of Starmer's plan and vision for mid-2020s Britain and beyond, anyone can project anything. I'm not as convinced as some there will be huge areas of common ground between the LDs and Labour so we'll see.

    The LDs would be foolish to rerun 2010 but with Labour as a partner.

    However, the desire to remove Johnson from Downing Street would be compelling for Davey, and I can't see how he does that without at least some tacit arrangement with Labour assuming of course the numbers stack up. It would be an easy sell.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182
    Off-topic:

    Whilst minor countries talk about submarines, the colossus of North Korea has a train-launched ballistic missile!

    https://www.nknews.org/2021/09/north-korea-tested-new-train-launched-ballistic-missile-system-kcna/

    (The US and Russia tried similar things yonks ago.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880

    It would be great to know as a potential blue to orange switcher what Davey's vision is with taxes and spending?

    From the sound of it Davey was talking earlier this week about tax rises but I'm not sure which?

    The Lib Dems are the party of the NIMBY
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177

    It would be great to know as a potential blue to orange switcher what Davey's vision is with taxes and spending?

    From the sound of it Davey was talking earlier this week about tax rises but I'm not sure which?

    Good question, and it'll feed into my decision too. Although it's a lot less important to me that I think it is to you.
    Would love to get the lay of the land from any of the LDs on here (do we have any party members?)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880

    It would be great to know as a potential blue to orange switcher what Davey's vision is with taxes and spending?

    From the sound of it Davey was talking earlier this week about tax rises but I'm not sure which?

    The Lib Dems are the party of the NIMBY
    ...and England is full of NIMBYs. Fertile ground for the yellow peril.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,361

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Hardly a surprising strategy and it encompasses some of the breakthrough seats from 1997 where the LD tradition and strength has been quickest to recover.

    Much though we'd all like the LDs to win 450 seats at the next election, the truth is 25-30 seats would be at the top end of ambition and a solid mid-teens share of the vote. Whether that's enough to deprive the Conservatives of their majority will depend on events elsewhere and it's certainly no commitment to going into Government with Starmer.

    We know so little of Starmer's plan and vision for mid-2020s Britain and beyond, anyone can project anything. I'm not as convinced as some there will be huge areas of common ground between the LDs and Labour so we'll see.

    The LDs would be foolish to rerun 2010 but with Labour as a partner.

    However, the desire to remove Johnson from Downing Street would be compelling for Davey, and I can't see how he does that without at least some tacit arrangement with Labour assuming of course the numbers stack up. It would be an easy sell.
    There won't be a pact or anything formal of course but we all know there are seats where the LDs are competitive against the Conservatives and Labour aren't and vice versa and it makes no sense to work a seat which isn't even remotely likely.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,676
    Scott_xP said:

    Don't they know it's "over" ..?

    How post-Brexit bureaucracy is driving up the cost of UK gardening https://on.ft.com/3tUFzIr

    Paywall, so can't read. What exactly is more expensive?


    Peat compost? Good, it should be banned. Peat extraction destroys habitats and emits large quantities of CO2.

    Trees from Holland? Good. Biosecurity might improve. Ash dieback has been particularly bad this year. We should be growing our own native trees and avoiding the import of diseases as far as possible.

    Garden flowers, also from Holland? Good. Again, there's no need to import this stuff.

    Workers in nurseries not being prepared to work for peanuts? Good.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177

    Scott_xP said:

    Don't they know it's "over" ..?

    How post-Brexit bureaucracy is driving up the cost of UK gardening https://on.ft.com/3tUFzIr

    Paywall, so can't read. What exactly is more expensive?


    Peat compost? Good, it should be banned. Peat extraction destroys habitats and emits large quantities of CO2.

    Trees from Holland? Good. Biosecurity might improve. Ash dieback has been particularly bad this year. We should be growing our own native trees and avoiding the import of diseases as far as possible.

    Garden flowers, also from Holland? Good. Again, there's no need to import this stuff.

    Workers in nurseries not being prepared to work for peanuts? Good.
    Out of interest, is there any cross-border horticultural trade that is acceptable?
  • ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880
    ping said:
    He's been posting about this non-stop on LinkedIn
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    I mean you wouldn't expect supply interruption as really the concept of "energy supplier" is a fiction
  • Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20
  • ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    I mean you wouldn't expect supply interruption as really the concept of "energy supplier" is a fiction
    Yes but some may worry about continuity of supply
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,676
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Don't they know it's "over" ..?

    How post-Brexit bureaucracy is driving up the cost of UK gardening https://on.ft.com/3tUFzIr

    Paywall, so can't read. What exactly is more expensive?


    Peat compost? Good, it should be banned. Peat extraction destroys habitats and emits large quantities of CO2.

    Trees from Holland? Good. Biosecurity might improve. Ash dieback has been particularly bad this year. We should be growing our own native trees and avoiding the import of diseases as far as possible.

    Garden flowers, also from Holland? Good. Again, there's no need to import this stuff.

    Workers in nurseries not being prepared to work for peanuts? Good.
    Out of interest, is there any cross-border horticultural trade that is acceptable?
    Between specialist growers, perhaps. The pile 'em high trade for B&Q and the like is bad in many ways.

    Declaration of interest: the Flatlands here include the two largest lowland bogs in the UK which were effectively destroyed by the peat industry. There's no need for us to export the destruction to Estonia as well.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,361
    While it's entertaining to discuss the Liberal Democrats, a more immediate election in offing to the north-west as Iceland votes next Saturday.

    A poll I've not seen on Europe elects but was on the front page of the Morgenbladio, which as we all know is Iceland's most popular daily paper and the website (see below) is apparently Iceland's most visited.

    https://www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2021/09/18/vinstri_sveifla_thegar_vika_er_eftir/

    For those whose Icelandic isn't quite up to it, try Google Translate or the figures (changes on 2017 Althing election);

    Independence Party: 20.3% (-4.9)
    Social Democrats: 13.0% (+0.9)
    Progressive: 12.7% (+2.0)
    Left-Green Movement: 12.1% (-4.8)
    Pirate: 11.8% (+2.6)
    Reform Party: 10.7% (+4.0)
    Icelandic Socialist: 8.6% (+8.6)
    People's Party: 5.6% (-1.3)
    Centre Party: 4.6% (-6.3)

    The government coalition of Independence, Progressive and Left-Green is down just under eight points from last time and would lose their majority in the Althing on these figures. I don't quite see the alternative Government coalition and I suspect this will be a messy inconclusive election.

    Threshold is 5% and there are 63 seats in the Althing (as we all know).

    The lead stories are a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands and whether there is any need for capital letters in the Icelandic language.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 19
    ping said:
    I don't understand how having 70 companies in this market could ever survive, it just isn't efficient. All these tiny companies like this with < 200 employers, who don't produce any of the energy and simply betting on correctly spotting the cost in the future.
  • pingping Posts: 1,412
    edited September 19

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,693

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Oh good, activists and lobbyists now involved.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Are you saying they should Axe articles about rivers?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    4h
    This is genuinely extraordinary. The Orwellian double-think needed to make such statements is terrifying.

    A woman is an adult human female. That's a fact. Trans women are biological men who choose to live as women, as they should be free to do. But they're not women. #IAmAWoman

    ===

    She's talking about Ed Davey's statement that a trans woman is a woman.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,482
    Farooq said:

    It would be great to know as a potential blue to orange switcher what Davey's vision is with taxes and spending?

    From the sound of it Davey was talking earlier this week about tax rises but I'm not sure which?

    Good question, and it'll feed into my decision too. Although it's a lot less important to me that I think it is to you.
    Would love to get the lay of the land from any of the LDs on here (do we have any party members?)
    For Scotland they are anti democracy , anti Scotland and so irrelevant it is a wasted vote.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,738
    stodge said:

    While it's entertaining to discuss the Liberal Democrats, a more immediate election in offing to the north-west as Iceland votes next Saturday.

    A poll I've not seen on Europe elects but was on the front page of the Morgenbladio, which as we all know is Iceland's most popular daily paper and the website (see below) is apparently Iceland's most visited.

    https://www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2021/09/18/vinstri_sveifla_thegar_vika_er_eftir/

    For those whose Icelandic isn't quite up to it, try Google Translate or the figures (changes on 2017 Althing election);

    Independence Party: 20.3% (-4.9)
    Social Democrats: 13.0% (+0.9)
    Progressive: 12.7% (+2.0)
    Left-Green Movement: 12.1% (-4.8)
    Pirate: 11.8% (+2.6)
    Reform Party: 10.7% (+4.0)
    Icelandic Socialist: 8.6% (+8.6)
    People's Party: 5.6% (-1.3)
    Centre Party: 4.6% (-6.3)

    The government coalition of Independence, Progressive and Left-Green is down just under eight points from last time and would lose their majority in the Althing on these figures. I don't quite see the alternative Government coalition and I suspect this will be a messy inconclusive election.

    Threshold is 5% and there are 63 seats in the Althing (as we all know).

    The lead stories are a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands and whether there is any need for capital letters in the Icelandic language.

    Think that should be Morgunblaðið
  • ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    The contact was extended at the same rate when EDF took over the supply, but the contact expired on the 31st August and I signed a new fixed rate 2 year deal with them and commented on here at the time that there was a 40% increase

    However, in view of what is happening now that 2 year contact to the 31st August 2023 looks a very good deal
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,361

    stodge said:

    While it's entertaining to discuss the Liberal Democrats, a more immediate election in offing to the north-west as Iceland votes next Saturday.

    A poll I've not seen on Europe elects but was on the front page of the Morgenbladio, which as we all know is Iceland's most popular daily paper and the website (see below) is apparently Iceland's most visited.

    https://www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2021/09/18/vinstri_sveifla_thegar_vika_er_eftir/

    For those whose Icelandic isn't quite up to it, try Google Translate or the figures (changes on 2017 Althing election);

    Independence Party: 20.3% (-4.9)
    Social Democrats: 13.0% (+0.9)
    Progressive: 12.7% (+2.0)
    Left-Green Movement: 12.1% (-4.8)
    Pirate: 11.8% (+2.6)
    Reform Party: 10.7% (+4.0)
    Icelandic Socialist: 8.6% (+8.6)
    People's Party: 5.6% (-1.3)
    Centre Party: 4.6% (-6.3)

    The government coalition of Independence, Progressive and Left-Green is down just under eight points from last time and would lose their majority in the Althing on these figures. I don't quite see the alternative Government coalition and I suspect this will be a messy inconclusive election.

    Threshold is 5% and there are 63 seats in the Althing (as we all know).

    The lead stories are a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands and whether there is any need for capital letters in the Icelandic language.

    Think that should be Morgunblaðið
    Clearly, my Icelandic isn't up to it either !!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,625
    AIUI industrial users of gas on interruptible contracts (which are cheaper than non-interruptible ones) are the first in line to get cut off. Let us just hope that there are no longer any hospitals or schools with such contracts. There certainly used to be when I researched the topic ~25 years ago.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880
    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,738

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    I currently don't have one. Octopus closed my account in error, they thought I was moving out. I'm still using gas and electricity, no idea who it belongs to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 19

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    Inflation throughout the economy here and here to stay for a number of years. US are at over 5% and predict they are going to be a 4% for another 3 years.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    I saw someone swimming in the Great Ouse in Godmanchester the other morning.

    First time in ages I'd seen anyone doing it. They're a lot braver than I am...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    Several factors.

    My supplier, Good Energy has done a blog item on it:

    https://www.goodenergy.co.uk/blog/2021/09/15/why-are-wholesale-energy-prices-so-high-and-what-does-it-mean/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,024
    I see the weird PB obsession with wild swimming literature continues.

    Wild swimming is fantastic.

    If you don’t like it, fine. But the books, and the articles, are useful.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    It would be great to know as a potential blue to orange switcher what Davey's vision is with taxes and spending?

    From the sound of it Davey was talking earlier this week about tax rises but I'm not sure which?

    Good question, and it'll feed into my decision too. Although it's a lot less important to me that I think it is to you.
    Would love to get the lay of the land from any of the LDs on here (do we have any party members?)
    For Scotland they are anti democracy , anti Scotland and so irrelevant it is a wasted vote.
    SNP and Green are in contention for my vote too. We'll see.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 19

    I see the weird PB obsession with wild swimming literature continues.

    Wild swimming is fantastic.

    If you don’t like it, fine. But the books, and the articles, are useful.

    It because its the Guardian equivalent.of Daily Express Diana stories....even other members of the media are taking the piss now.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 718


    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    4h
    This is genuinely extraordinary. The Orwellian double-think needed to make such statements is terrifying.

    A woman is an adult human female. That's a fact. Trans women are biological men who choose to live as women, as they should be free to do. But they're not women. #IAmAWoman

    ===

    She's talking about Ed Davey's statement that a trans woman is a woman.

    Isn't this debate easily solved by the fact that sex and gender are different things, which usually align but not 100%. Sex describes someone's genitalia and gender describes someone's brain chemistry and identity.
  • ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    I currently don't have one. Octopus closed my account in error, they thought I was moving out. I'm still using gas and electricity, no idea who it belongs to.
    Ofgem will tell you
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    A combination of things, including the French interconnector being down due to a fire.

    But in the medium term, we're going to have to get used to higher energy prices. That's the cost of going green.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,024

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    I saw someone swimming in the Great Ouse in Godmanchester the other morning.

    First time in ages I'd seen anyone doing it. They're a lot braver than I am...
    Spent much of the summer swimming in English rivers. You should try it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534

    ping said:
    I don't understand how having 70 companies in this market could ever survive, it just isn't efficient. All these tiny companies like this with < 200 employers, who don't produce any of the energy and simply betting on correctly spotting the cost in the future.
    Nottingham City Council tried to play this game creating their own energy company. Went bust a few months ago iirc leaving council tax payers a bill of millions.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 718
    Reading French political forums and it seems the public are 100% being ginned up by Le Strop. People talking about giving asylum to Snowden over the "betrayal"...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,024

    I see the weird PB obsession with wild swimming literature continues.

    Wild swimming is fantastic.

    If you don’t like it, fine. But the books, and the articles, are useful.

    It because its the Guardian equivalent.of Daily Express Diana stories....even other members of the media are taking the piss now.
    Nope. Most of the articles in the press are useful. And the books are superb. I have had absolutely stunning swimming trips to France and Italy that simply wouldn’t have happened with the literature.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894
    Scott_xP said:

    Don't they know it's "over" ..?

    How post-Brexit bureaucracy is driving up the cost of UK gardening https://on.ft.com/3tUFzIr

    Our gardening company tried to push through a 40% rise (after 25% last year).

    I said no. They were fine with it. I’m guessing journalists don’t negotiate?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,526
    Aslan said:

    Reading French political forums and it seems the public are 100% being ginned up by Le Strop. People talking about giving asylum to Snowden over the "betrayal"...

    Well, this was probably the single largest arms export order in French history.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534
    Aslan said:


    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    4h
    This is genuinely extraordinary. The Orwellian double-think needed to make such statements is terrifying.

    A woman is an adult human female. That's a fact. Trans women are biological men who choose to live as women, as they should be free to do. But they're not women. #IAmAWoman

    ===

    She's talking about Ed Davey's statement that a trans woman is a woman.

    Isn't this debate easily solved by the fact that sex and gender are different things, which usually align but not 100%. Sex describes someone's genitalia and gender describes someone's brain chemistry and identity.
    Should woman's sport entry be decided by gender or sex under your model?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    While it's entertaining to discuss the Liberal Democrats, a more immediate election in offing to the north-west as Iceland votes next Saturday.

    A poll I've not seen on Europe elects but was on the front page of the Morgenbladio, which as we all know is Iceland's most popular daily paper and the website (see below) is apparently Iceland's most visited.

    https://www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2021/09/18/vinstri_sveifla_thegar_vika_er_eftir/

    For those whose Icelandic isn't quite up to it, try Google Translate or the figures (changes on 2017 Althing election);

    Independence Party: 20.3% (-4.9)
    Social Democrats: 13.0% (+0.9)
    Progressive: 12.7% (+2.0)
    Left-Green Movement: 12.1% (-4.8)
    Pirate: 11.8% (+2.6)
    Reform Party: 10.7% (+4.0)
    Icelandic Socialist: 8.6% (+8.6)
    People's Party: 5.6% (-1.3)
    Centre Party: 4.6% (-6.3)

    The government coalition of Independence, Progressive and Left-Green is down just under eight points from last time and would lose their majority in the Althing on these figures. I don't quite see the alternative Government coalition and I suspect this will be a messy inconclusive election.

    Threshold is 5% and there are 63 seats in the Althing (as we all know).

    The lead stories are a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands and whether there is any need for capital letters in the Icelandic language.

    Think that should be Morgunblaðið
    Clearly, my Icelandic isn't up to it either !!
    Morgun is "morning"
    blað is "leaf", transmitted to mean "page", from the same root that gives us "blade".

    Foreign languages are easy when you have related languages.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,031
    edited September 19
    Aslan said:


    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    4h
    This is genuinely extraordinary. The Orwellian double-think needed to make such statements is terrifying.

    A woman is an adult human female. That's a fact. Trans women are biological men who choose to live as women, as they should be free to do. But they're not women. #IAmAWoman

    ===

    She's talking about Ed Davey's statement that a trans woman is a woman.

    Isn't this debate easily solved by the fact that sex and gender are different things, which usually align but not 100%. Sex describes someone's genitalia and gender describes someone's brain chemistry and identity.
    Yes - I've been saying similar for months. Gender is what you identify as and sex is what sex you are. It must be possible for sex and gender to differ or what would be the point of having two words for the same thing. Hartley-Brewer is spot on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 19

    ping said:
    I don't understand how having 70 companies in this market could ever survive, it just isn't efficient. All these tiny companies like this with < 200 employers, who don't produce any of the energy and simply betting on correctly spotting the cost in the future.
    Nottingham City Council tried to play this game creating their own energy company. Went bust a few months ago iirc leaving council tax payers a bill of millions.
    Its seems like all the people who think they can day trade from their bedroom on leverage. You have all the disadvantages, little upside and you get it wrong and you will be wrecked.
  • Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    How disgusting. We all know that rivers only exist for farmers and water companies to dump shit in. Thank you for performing this vital public service and alerting us to this sick filth.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894

    Off-topic:

    Whilst minor countries talk about submarines, the colossus of North Korea has a train-launched ballistic missile!

    https://www.nknews.org/2021/09/north-korea-tested-new-train-launched-ballistic-missile-system-kcna/

    (The US and Russia tried similar things yonks ago.)

    Crap military strategy but good PR

    Typical Boris Kim Jong-un
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,927
    Ed Davey's interview with Marr this morning was interesting, and not good for Davey / the Lib Dems.

    Marr pointed out that the candidate in Chesham and Amersham had won by going against national Lib Dem positions on planning and HS2. On the former Davey mounted his own rather half-hearted attack on the planning reforms, without explaining what the Lib Dem alternative to fix housing supply is. On the latter, he argued that Sarah Green had the same stance as Cheryl Gillan, as if this was a relevant point. Clearly the Lib Dems can win by-elections by taking different and contradictory positions according to the circumstances of the place, but the tactic isn't as applicable to general elections.

    On trans rights, and being asked why a member was disciplined for wearing a 'Woman: adult human female' t-shirt, his response was to blame Boris Johnson for 'toxifying the debate', which is odd as I can't recall Johnson mentioning the trans/sex-based rights issue once in his premiership. He also confirmed the Lib Dem position as one which would allow people to identify their way into spaces intended for the opposite sex, which goes down like a cup of cold sick with a lot of women.

    Finally, Davey just doesn't look or sound like a party leader. There's no fire in his belly. He makes SKS look exciting.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    Probably the vaccine, or China I guess.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,031

    Aslan said:


    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    4h
    This is genuinely extraordinary. The Orwellian double-think needed to make such statements is terrifying.

    A woman is an adult human female. That's a fact. Trans women are biological men who choose to live as women, as they should be free to do. But they're not women. #IAmAWoman

    ===

    She's talking about Ed Davey's statement that a trans woman is a woman.

    Isn't this debate easily solved by the fact that sex and gender are different things, which usually align but not 100%. Sex describes someone's genitalia and gender describes someone's brain chemistry and identity.
    Should woman's sport entry be decided by gender or sex under your model?
    No. Sport is a matter of sex not gender. Gender, in the context being discussed, wasn't even invented until the 50s and not in common usage until the 70s at least.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,277
    edited September 19

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    A combination of things, including the French interconnector being down due to a fire.

    But in the medium term, we're going to have to get used to higher energy prices. That's the cost of going green.
    Alok Sharma was asked this morning if the £150 annual green levy may be cancelled

    He was non committal but how many know abut this green charge
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008
    As a LibDem member, as I understand the party policy on economics, it is similar to Tory and Labour i.e. borrow for investment in infrastructure and education where there is a return greater than the interest on the borrowing, but tax for consumption including NHS, benefits and defence.

    This is from the 2019 manifesto:
    A good government should responsibly manage the nation’s finances: taking advantage of opportunities to borrow to invest in key infrastructure while making sure that day-to-day spending does not exceed the amount of money raised in taxes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534
    rcs1000 said:

    Re energy suppliers.

    This what happens when you sell fixed, and buy variable. I.e., the price of wholesale electricity is not fixed, but the price at which you sell to consumers is. Suppliers could could have hedged (i.e. forward bought electricity), but they instead decided to take a chance to earn some extra profits.

    Why has the price of wholesale electricity gone through the roof?

    Well, that’s a classic knock on effect of Covid.

    The price of electricity is (largely) set by the price of natural gas. Because that is the marginal producer.

    Now, 18 months ago, as Covid hit, demand for electricity and natural gas collapsed. This resulted in a massive pull back by onshore oil and gas drillers. The number of rigs drilling in the US dropped by two-thirds.

    In the old days, this wouldn’t have mattered so much. In the old days, oil and gas projects were long-term, and a drop in investment would only show up in production some time later. With onshore unconventionals, that’s not true any more. These new wells have pretty short lives. If you stop drilling, then the natural gas (and oil) stops flowing.

    The market then did what it was supposed to do. The price of natural gas stabilised as drilling capacity got taken out the market.

    This year, Covid is on the way out, and demand for natural gas is rising. The problem is that some people who worked on rigs got other jobs. And so, the rig count is taking more time to rise than one would expect for the current price of oil and gas. And this is feeding through to even higher natural gas prices.

    Of course, this will overshoot the other way now. As natural gas prices get high and stay high, oil & gas companies will feel more confident in investing in production. And it’s not like we don’t know where the gas is. So this is a short term problem. But a very painful one for some energy companies.

    My irritation here is that this is not a difficult market to hedge. Some things don’t have active futures markets, and so intermediaries are taking big risks. Energy isn’t like that. You want to sell an MMBTU in 2024 - you can do that. Suppliers got greedy. They thought - why bother hedging, when I can take extra profit. But they forgot that if they called it wrong they wouldn’t have a business.

    Sounds like you are saying that a lot of energy suppliers don't know how to run their business basically. Which given all these start-ups with funny names run by ten avocado-on-toast kids with laptops is probably the case.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,263
    We should be willing to pay more for food too: bring back mixed, even organic, farming and employ more people. Treat the earth with respect.

    P/S Reverend Sue, and others---good on yah.

    https://christianclimateaction.org/2021/03/18/revd-sue-parfitt-79-commits-contempt-of-court-over-climate-emergency/
  • Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    How disgusting. We all know that rivers only exist for farmers and water companies to dump shit in. Thank you for performing this vital public service and alerting us to this sick filth.
    This is where my friends and I swam last week. We’ve all been ill since our last swim trek up the river. This new knowledge is making me feel even queasier 🤢 Thank you @Feargal_Sharkey 😩 https://t.co/wGPP3PC96z

    https://twitter.com/jowhiley/status/1437767225390374915?s=19
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,318
    The LibDem leader always makes me think of this:

    Cause I'm Ed Davey, yes, I'm the real Davey
    All you other Ed Daveys, are just imitating
    So won't the real Ed Davey, please stand up
    Please stand up, please stand up

    I'm not sure why.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 19
    Time for 7hrs of commercial free foooootballl.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,880
    Thanks everyone re. energy prices
  • Farooq said:

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    Probably the vaccine, or China I guess.
    It's an infernal cabal of the French, wild swimmers, the metropolitan liberal elite, statue topplers, Romanians, Remainers, the BBC, Gary Lineker, Muslims, Gareth Southgate, Meghan and Harry and everyone working in the arts, funded by Bill Gates and the European Commission.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    How disgusting. We all know that rivers only exist for farmers and water companies to dump shit in. Thank you for performing this vital public service and alerting us to this sick filth.
    This is where my friends and I swam last week. We’ve all been ill since our last swim trek up the river. This new knowledge is making me feel even queasier 🤢 Thank you @Feargal_Sharkey 😩 https://t.co/wGPP3PC96z

    https://twitter.com/jowhiley/status/1437767225390374915?s=19
    An ex-colleague of mine was a rower on the Cam. A friend of his got very ill after a dunking with a waterborne disease (I cannot remember which one); the other crew in his eights were fine. This sort of thing can be distressingly random.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,738
    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    While it's entertaining to discuss the Liberal Democrats, a more immediate election in offing to the north-west as Iceland votes next Saturday.

    A poll I've not seen on Europe elects but was on the front page of the Morgenbladio, which as we all know is Iceland's most popular daily paper and the website (see below) is apparently Iceland's most visited.

    https://www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2021/09/18/vinstri_sveifla_thegar_vika_er_eftir/

    For those whose Icelandic isn't quite up to it, try Google Translate or the figures (changes on 2017 Althing election);

    Independence Party: 20.3% (-4.9)
    Social Democrats: 13.0% (+0.9)
    Progressive: 12.7% (+2.0)
    Left-Green Movement: 12.1% (-4.8)
    Pirate: 11.8% (+2.6)
    Reform Party: 10.7% (+4.0)
    Icelandic Socialist: 8.6% (+8.6)
    People's Party: 5.6% (-1.3)
    Centre Party: 4.6% (-6.3)

    The government coalition of Independence, Progressive and Left-Green is down just under eight points from last time and would lose their majority in the Althing on these figures. I don't quite see the alternative Government coalition and I suspect this will be a messy inconclusive election.

    Threshold is 5% and there are 63 seats in the Althing (as we all know).

    The lead stories are a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands and whether there is any need for capital letters in the Icelandic language.

    Think that should be Morgunblaðið
    Clearly, my Icelandic isn't up to it either !!
    Morgun is "morning"
    blað is "leaf", transmitted to mean "page", from the same root that gives us "blade".

    Foreign languages are easy when you have related languages.
    And the final -ið is the definite article. Scandinavian languages like to tag them onto the end.

    There is a Danish newspaper called Morgenblad I think.

    For other uses of the word blade = leaf, in Old English, maegdblaed = vulva. (Apologies for the spelling, but I don't seem to have ash on my keyboard despite having eð and þorn)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894
    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    Account balances are honoured too (or at least they were when my orovide went under a few years ago). I’m sure the regulator has to cover the cost somehow.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,318

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Can you combine wild swimming with wild camping and foraging for your dinner to claim some kind of triple crown of wankness?
  • Watching Spurs v Chelsea, Kane must be very disillusioned
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    The contact was extended at the same rate when EDF took over the supply, but the contact expired on the 31st August and I signed a new fixed rate 2 year deal with them and commented on here at the time that there was a 40% increase

    However, in view of what is happening now that 2 year contact to the 31st August 2023 looks a very good deal
    My fixed rate expires in November.

    ESB is sending me lots and lots of emails offering me £50 to break my contract and sign up to a new 2 year contract today.

    When someone is pushing something that hard… I didn’t even both to check the terms because I guessed it wasn’t going to be in my interest…
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    I saw someone swimming in the Great Ouse in Godmanchester the other morning.

    First time in ages I'd seen anyone doing it. They're a lot braver than I am...
    Spent much of the summer swimming in English rivers. You should try it.
    I'm not against the idea; I'm not a very good swimmer, and I have other hobbies.

    I once spent a year walking around the coast. in all that time by the sea, including the scorchingly hot summer of 2003, I only took one dip in the sea, and also a loch on the same day.

    And had sex in the loch.

    Thinking about it, that's perhaps why I don't like wild swimming: who knows what other people have been up to in the water! ;)
  • Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Can you combine wild swimming with wild camping and foraging for your dinner to claim some kind of triple crown of wankness?
    I think the guardian wild swimming brigade are more the glamping types are they not?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    Russia constraining supply plus a suspicious/mysterious fire at the interconnector facility.

    #ButIt’sProbablyAllBecauseOfBrexit @Farooq
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,031
    edited September 19
    Feck me - is this sufficient to assess Gillick competence in 12-15 year olds?

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016819/UKHSA_12073_COVID-19_easy_read_jab_consent_form_CYP.pdf

    My daughter's school (large state school) has had calls from parents concerned that the jabs will be provided at school and to make it clear that they do not give permission for this. The school has responded by sending a letter to all parents saying that this is in fact nothing to do with the school, it will all be run by the NHS when they visit the school site. (The above PDF was not enclosed with the letter, I'm assuming it will be shown to each child on the day.)

    AFAIK the NHS team will not be contacting parents in advance of their visit. This will just be a tick-box exercise production line.

    I find this all very concerning indeed.
  • Charles said:

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    The contact was extended at the same rate when EDF took over the supply, but the contact expired on the 31st August and I signed a new fixed rate 2 year deal with them and commented on here at the time that there was a 40% increase

    However, in view of what is happening now that 2 year contact to the 31st August 2023 looks a very good deal
    My fixed rate expires in November.

    ESB is sending me lots and lots of emails offering me £50 to break my contract and sign up to a new 2 year contract today.

    When someone is pushing something that hard… I didn’t even both to check the terms because I guessed it wasn’t going to be in my interest…
    Probably on this occasion?????
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    I currently don't have one. Octopus closed my account in error, they thought I was moving out. I'm still using gas and electricity, no idea who it belongs to.
    You should find out otherwise you will get a nasty surprise when they ask you to pay the back cost
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    I saw someone swimming in the Great Ouse in Godmanchester the other morning.

    First time in ages I'd seen anyone doing it. They're a lot braver than I am...
    Spent much of the summer swimming in English rivers. You should try it.
    I'm not against the idea; I'm not a very good swimmer, and I have other hobbies.

    I once spent a year walking around the coast. in all that time by the sea, including the scorchingly hot summer of 2003, I only took one dip in the sea, and also a loch on the same day.

    And had sex in the loch.

    Thinking about it, that's perhaps why I don't like wild swimming: who knows what other people have been up to in the water! ;)
    Was it Loch Ard?
  • glwglw Posts: 7,759
    rcs1000 said:

    My irritation here is that this is not a difficult market to hedge. Some things don’t have active futures markets, and so intermediaries are taking big risks. Energy isn’t like that. You want to sell an MMBTU in 2024 - you can do that. Suppliers got greedy. They thought - why bother hedging, when I can take extra profit. But they forgot that if they called it wrong they wouldn’t have a business.


    Yep, the market is working just fine, and a bunch of spivs are about to be "corrected" out of existence.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182
    My old school's most famous alumnus is perhaps Quentin Crisp. Here are some of his last words on his sexuality;

    "I never came ‘out’ as transgender or gay because I was never ‘in’ and I’ve never known anything except the life I have. I either lived in the dream world in which I was a woman or else I lived awkwardly in the outside world where I was inadequate."

    "The only thing in my life I have wanted and didn’t get was to be a woman. It will be my life’s biggest regret. If the operation had been available and cheap when I was young, say when I was twenty-five or twenty-six, I would have jumped at the chance. My life would have been much simpler as a result. I would have told nobody. Instead, I would have gone to live in a distant town and run a knitting wool shop and no one would ever have known my secret. I would have joined the real world and it would have been wonderful."

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/11/21/quentin-crisp-reflects-on-trans-identity-in-exclusive-final-autobiography/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,773

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    A combination of things, including the French interconnector being down due to a fire.

    But in the medium term, we're going to have to get used to higher energy prices. That's the cost of going green.
    Alok Sharma was asked this morning if the £150 annual green levy may be cancelled

    He was non committal but how many know abut this green charge
    Absurd suggestion.

    1 - The small ones going bust don't pay it.
    2 - It's the only working green programme currently running.
    3 - All the people complaining about over high prices because they haven't invested in their homes can get help from it to improve their insulation and so on.

    Lord save us from this clowning...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177
    Charles said:

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    Russia constraining supply plus a suspicious/mysterious fire at the interconnector facility.

    #ButIt’sProbablyAllBecauseOfBrexit @Farooq
    :wink:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,894
    rcs1000 said:

    Re energy suppliers.

    This what happens when you sell fixed, and buy variable. I.e., the price of wholesale electricity is not fixed, but the price at which you sell to consumers is. Suppliers could could have hedged (i.e. forward bought electricity), but they instead decided to take a chance to earn some extra profits.

    Why has the price of wholesale electricity gone through the roof?

    Well, that’s a classic knock on effect of Covid.

    The price of electricity is (largely) set by the price of natural gas. Because that is the marginal producer.

    Now, 18 months ago, as Covid hit, demand for electricity and natural gas collapsed. This resulted in a massive pull back by onshore oil and gas drillers. The number of rigs drilling in the US dropped by two-thirds.

    In the old days, this wouldn’t have mattered so much. In the old days, oil and gas projects were long-term, and a drop in investment would only show up in production some time later. With onshore unconventionals, that’s not true any more. These new wells have pretty short lives. If you stop drilling, then the natural gas (and oil) stops flowing.

    The market then did what it was supposed to do. The price of natural gas stabilised as drilling capacity got taken out the market.

    This year, Covid is on the way out, and demand for natural gas is rising. The problem is that some people who worked on rigs got other jobs. And so, the rig count is taking more time to rise than one would expect for the current price of oil and gas. And this is feeding through to even higher natural gas prices.

    Of course, this will overshoot the other way now. As natural gas prices get high and stay high, oil & gas companies will feel more confident in investing in production. And it’s not like we don’t know where the gas is. So this is a short term problem. But a very painful one for some energy companies.

    My irritation here is that this is not a difficult market to hedge. Some things don’t have active futures markets, and so intermediaries are taking big risks. Energy isn’t like that. You want to sell an MMBTU in 2024 - you can do that. Suppliers got greedy. They thought - why bother hedging, when I can take extra profit. But they forgot that if they called it wrong they wouldn’t have a business.

    When do you expect prices to fall?

    I’m locked in until November and wondering when to refix (I like certainty for budgeting purposes) or whether I should ride the tiger down for a bit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,277
    edited September 19
    MattW said:

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    A combination of things, including the French interconnector being down due to a fire.

    But in the medium term, we're going to have to get used to higher energy prices. That's the cost of going green.
    Alok Sharma was asked this morning if the £150 annual green levy may be cancelled

    He was non committal but how many know abut this green charge
    Absurd suggestion.

    1 - The small ones going bust don't pay it.
    2 - It's the only working green programme currently running.
    3 - All the people complaining about over high prices because they haven't invested in their homes can get help from it to improve their insulation and so on.

    Lord save us from this clowning...
    It was a simple question put to him by Marr

    And do you know how much homeowners have availed themselves of the scheme

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177
    More allegations about Prince Charles. Who would vote for this idiot if we had any say?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182
    Farooq said:

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    I saw someone swimming in the Great Ouse in Godmanchester the other morning.

    First time in ages I'd seen anyone doing it. They're a lot braver than I am...
    Spent much of the summer swimming in English rivers. You should try it.
    I'm not against the idea; I'm not a very good swimmer, and I have other hobbies.

    I once spent a year walking around the coast. in all that time by the sea, including the scorchingly hot summer of 2003, I only took one dip in the sea, and also a loch on the same day.

    And had sex in the loch.

    Thinking about it, that's perhaps why I don't like wild swimming: who knows what other people have been up to in the water! ;)
    Was it Loch Ard?
    I'd have had a long run to the sea! It was Sandwood Bay. If you catch it right, on a hot summer's day, then the loch (it's mostly just waist deep) warms up massively. Swim in the sea, cross the dunes and throw yourself into the freshwater.

    Glorious.

    AFAICR Sandwood Bay is where the last sighting of a Mermaid was made in the UK. And, by personal attestation, where the whisky fairies live. Perhaps there's a connection between the two...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,773

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Can you combine wild swimming with wild camping and foraging for your dinner to claim some kind of triple crown of wankness?
    I think the guardian wild swimming brigade are more the glamping types are they not?
    This one is quite tasty.

    They are arguing for people to trespass and swim in reservoirs in violation of the standing rules, and piggybacking on the very questionable case for a right of navigation on all English waterways. I see injunctions incoming if this takes off, because if it moves beyond the hardcore who really know their stuff people will die.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/sep/19/in-at-the-deep-end-the-activists-plunging-into-the-wild-swimming-campaign

  • Spurs v Chelsea is simply embarrassing with Spurs desperate for the final whistle to lose 2 nil

    Whoops now 3 nil
  • Hmm. I wonder how much influence Carrie had over the setting up of AUUKUS. The Australian Liberal Party has traditionally been the most climate-sceptic in the western world. They'll be under huge pressure to subscribe to Biden's environmental policies now that he and Boris/Carrie have so much power over their military. Same goes with the Tory Right here - they can hardly start lambasting the green agenda when it's their man Uncle Joe who's pushing it. Carrie might just have played a blinder here.
  • Farooq said:

    More allegations about Prince Charles. Who would vote for this idiot if we had any say?

    His mother?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,318

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Can you combine wild swimming with wild camping and foraging for your dinner to claim some kind of triple crown of wankness?
    I think the guardian wild swimming brigade are more the glamping types are they not?
    Christ. Glamping. Another concept that should burn in hell for all eternity.

    If you don't want to rough it in a tent, stay in a fecking hotel.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,403
    Stocky said:

    Aslan said:


    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    4h
    This is genuinely extraordinary. The Orwellian double-think needed to make such statements is terrifying.

    A woman is an adult human female. That's a fact. Trans women are biological men who choose to live as women, as they should be free to do. But they're not women. #IAmAWoman

    ===

    She's talking about Ed Davey's statement that a trans woman is a woman.

    Isn't this debate easily solved by the fact that sex and gender are different things, which usually align but not 100%. Sex describes someone's genitalia and gender describes someone's brain chemistry and identity.
    Yes - I've been saying similar for months. Gender is what you identify as and sex is what sex you are. It must be possible for sex and gender to differ or what would be the point of having two words for the same thing. Hartley-Brewer is spot on.
    It's facile though imo.

    - "You are a man who identifies as a woman."
    - "No, I'm a woman who was born a boy."

    I don't see that this get us very far.

    The issue, at heart and in practice, is about what you are legally, a man or a woman, the process/controls around changing from one to the other, and to what extent (if any) female only spaces and activities should be able to exclude transwomen.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,177
    edited September 19

    Farooq said:

    More allegations about Prince Charles. Who would vote for this idiot if we had any say?

    His mother?
    I imaging she'd be torn between voting for him or Andrew. Pair of reprobates.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488

    Regret to inform you all that the Guardian has done *another* piece on wild swimming.

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1439624266618753030?s=20

    Can you combine wild swimming with wild camping and foraging for your dinner to claim some kind of triple crown of wankness?
    I think the guardian wild swimming brigade are more the glamping types are they not?
    Christ. Glamping. Another concept that should burn in hell for all eternity.

    If you don't want to rough it in a tent, stay in a fecking hotel.
    I don't know. We once stayed overnight in a nature reserve out in the hills above Adelaide where mirabile dictu the usual families and school parties were absent and we had it to ourselves overnight. The place was wall to wall marsupials during the midnight walk with the ranger. We could hear the noises off through the canvas - though Mrs C was not entirely happy in the morning as she had difficulty sleeping for the male koalas' cries.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 893
    MattW said:

    ping said:

    ping said:
    If it helps ours failed in May and Ofgem arranged EDF to take over the contract on the same terms and with no supply interruption
    Honouring existing tariffs is optional. Right now, I don’t think any company taking over can afford to honour cheap fixes.

    A few months ago, Green were encouraging customers to top up their accounts, giving 10% extra credit. I read on one forum, there are customers who took advantage and now have five figure credit balances.

    This could all get very messy…
    I am a little bit worried about this spike in energy prices. Do we know what is causing it?
    A combination of things, including the French interconnector being down due to a fire.

    But in the medium term, we're going to have to get used to higher energy prices. That's the cost of going green.
    Alok Sharma was asked this morning if the £150 annual green levy may be cancelled

    He was non committal but how many know abut this green charge
    Absurd suggestion.

    1 - The small ones going bust don't pay it.
    2 - It's the only working green programme currently running.
    3 - All the people complaining about over high prices because they haven't invested in their homes can get help from it to improve their insulation and so on.

    Lord save us from this clowning...
    I've no particular opinion on the Green Levy, but I would beg to point out that investing in home insulation isn't an option for anyone who lives in a flat or is renting, which together constitutes a very substantial fraction of the population.
This discussion has been closed.