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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207


    Y0kel has a habit of musing about the world without quoting any sources, academic or otherwise.

    Y0kel has a habit of musing from an informed perspective that is invariably ahead of the curve.

    He's also the person on pb.com I would least like to piss off.....

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Syria: Historical fact.

    The Assad regime both Bashar and his late Da have supported Jihadi groups to a greater or lesser extent for 30 years. Links with ISIL and Syrian intelligence goes back to the aftermath of invasion of Iraq.

    Assad used the Jihadi threat as a very useful tool before they actually appeared on the scene.

    Assad's Shia friends in Iraq happily let the Sunni radicals (read ISIL) troupe over the border to fight in Syria as a handy way of getting them off their patch only to be bittem on the arse later.

    ISIL have never fought the Assad regime with the aim of toppling Assad in the same way the other insurgent groups have. Instead it has focussed on carving out some territory, mainly in the north and east of the country.

    ISIS has clashed almost as often with other insurgent groups as it has done with Assads forces.

    In addition:

    Al Qaeda labelled ISIL as damaging the fight against Assad.

    ISIS has smuggled and provided oil to Assad's regime via its long held control of elements production and distribution assets in parts of Iraq.

    This is not some clear cut story on Assad vs ISIL. Never has been.

    No evidence for your so called historical fact I notice.
    What do you want an academic treatise? Go look it up. There is nothing there new or revelatory.

    Alternatively you tell me which of the above are absolutely incorrect.
    Y0kel has a habit of musing about the world without quoting any sources, academic or otherwise.
    Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.

    Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.
    Huzzah! So you CAN post links to verifiable sources after all!
    Keep up the good work!

    How are things in E. Belfast, BTW?
    Any halfwit can get something off the Internet to support their case. The question is sourcing, filtering and interpretation. I filter and interpret of my own accord rather than just take things wholesale.

    You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.

    Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.

    What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.

  • Y0kel has a habit of musing about the world without quoting any sources, academic or otherwise.

    Y0kel has a habit of musing from an informed perspective that is invariably ahead of the curve.

    He's also the person on pb.com I would least like to piss off.....

    Ooo-er! Not a Loyalist?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far.... ]

    Fairly sure it is unlikely the average EngScotWel PBer is going to be able to pick up on the ferocity of the marching season.
  • JBriskin said:

    [You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far.... ]

    Fairly sure it is unlikely the average EngScotWel PBer is going to be able to pick up on the ferocity of the marching season.

    Maybe 'cos we on the "mainland" have moved on from the late 17th century? Is that true?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @schofieldkevin: Calling all #indyref fans: we've got a YouGov poll going in tomorrow's paper. Worth buying a copy for, I'd say.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    JBriskin said:

    [You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far.... ]

    Fairly sure it is unlikely the average EngScotWel PBer is going to be able to pick up on the ferocity of the marching season.

    Maybe 'cos we on the "mainland" have moved on from the late 17th century? Is that true?
    Well, err, I was under the understanding that mainland had negative connotations - they probably all do. To be honest - I was just trying to get my point across as quick as possible. I thought the thought was reasonable enough.

    As for 1688 - Yeah I'm a fan, sorry.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    taffys said:

    Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.

    Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.

    What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.

    That is a major worry for me too, and Cameron and the rest in Brussels want to bring Turkey into the EU too.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    JBriskin said:

    [You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far.... ]

    Fairly sure it is unlikely the average EngScotWel PBer is going to be able to pick up on the ferocity of the marching season.

    Maybe 'cos we on the "mainland" have moved on from the late 17th century? Is that true?
    Seems to me the world is heading to a place a lot earlier than that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    edited August 2014
    Y0kel said:

    But here if you fancy a few links randomly from the Internet. None of which again are new
    and are reporting it onward from much the same open sources as I got it from in the 1st place.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-assad-isis-rebel-forces-iraq-syria

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10585391/Syrias-Assad-accused-of-boosting-al-Qaeda-with-secret-oil-deals.html

    http://world.time.com/2014/01/27/syria-assad-geneva-al-qaeda/

    Channel 4 quotes The Telegraph's story. The Telegraph quotes unnamed intelligence sources. Time quotes a 'Western' diplomat quoting unnamed intelligence sources. You can believe it if you wish; I will continue to think it's an absurd PR fig leaf.

    By the way, did you read that Channel 4 link?

    'This raises the even more heartbreaking possibility of foreigners in Syria believing they are there to overthrow Assad, only to find themselves embroiled in something far darker.'

    'Heartbreaking'? That they thought they were beheading people against Assad but may have been beheading them for him? Those poor innocent embroiled darlings. Genuinely sick stuff from C4 before the ISIS stuff really hit the fan.

    As for 'involvement', there's far more material evidence of MI5's involvement with one of the killers of Lee Rigby: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638314/Did-MI5-help-Lee-Rigby-killer-escape-Kenyan-jail-murdered-soldier-MPs-probe-claims-Adebolajo-sprung-free-arrested-trying-join-terror-group.html

    Are we to implicate David Cameron by the same token?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    edited August 2014
    MikeK said:

    taffys said:

    Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.

    Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.

    What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.

    That is a major worry for me too, and Cameron and the rest in Brussels want to bring Turkey into the EU too.
    I wouldn't worry too much - yet, at any rate - we've just had a Turkish girl student work with us for a month or so in our lab as part of her Undergrad in Ankara, and she dressed very, shall we say, un-conservatively, and even drank alcohol too :)

    I'm sure Mr Jessop of this parish may also have a word or two to add on this subject, being married to highly educated Turkish lady!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Yokel No, it will be another long-haul battle
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Assad probably kills more muslims in a day than Israel does in two weeks. Yet there are no 150,000 strong protests against Assad in central london.

  • taffys said:

    Assad probably kills more muslims in a day than Israel does in two weeks. Yet there are no 150,000 strong protests against Assad in central london.

    Are there any stats to back up that? How about Muslims killed by IS in Syria? Or even the "moderate" Nusra Front?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: Calling all #indyref fans: we've got a YouGov poll going in tomorrow's paper. Worth buying a copy for, I'd say.

    Crucial poll, this.

    Widening NO lead? Pretty much game over..

    Narrowing NO lead? So unexpected it might change the narrative.
    Tough gig for No, aren't YouGov the most No-friendly?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    I had bacon as part of my meal tonight.

    Delicious.

  • taffys said:

    Dave is right to keep his political powder dry on ISIS and Gaza.

    These events are changing the game here in Britain, but a rash emotional misstep could be extremely costly.

    You mean Dave is a follower, not a leader?
  • Y0kel said:



    Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.

    Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.

    OK, let's see, dude.

    In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?

    http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/

    At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).

    http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_press_release_2011.pdf

    So 41%, 42%, 45%. Not a great deal of variance.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: Calling all #indyref fans: we've got a YouGov poll going in tomorrow's paper. Worth buying a copy for, I'd say.

    Crucial poll, this.

    Widening NO lead? Pretty much game over..

    Narrowing NO lead? So unexpected it might change the narrative.
    Tough gig for No, aren't YouGov the most No-friendly?
    Of course it might just be MOE changes and the Sun is just trying to sell papers, as is to be expected.
    Yep, I guess a unchanged position will be seized upon by the Nats, however there are only a few weeks left to close the gap.
  • I had bacon as part of my meal tonight.

    Delicious.

    Hopefully not a "rasher" decision!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139

    MikeK said:

    taffys said:

    Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.

    Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.

    What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.

    That is a major worry for me too, and Cameron and the rest in Brussels want to bring Turkey into the EU too.
    I wouldn't worry too much - yet, at any rate - we've just had a Turkish girl student work with us for a month or so in our lab as part of her Undergrad in Ankara, and she dressed very, shall we say, un-conservatively, and even drank alcohol too :)

    I'm sure Mr Jessop of this parish may also have a word or two to add on this subject, being married to highly educated Turkish lady!
    Indeed, treating Turkey as just one country with the same mindset is like saying all UK citizens have a Home Counties (or Scottish, or Welsh) mindset. It is far too easy to generalise, and in so doing miss where the real pressure points and dangers lie. Of all the divisions, the secularist / Islamist one is the most important to us here in the UK, and in that the Islamists are winning, as the news tonight shows.

    In some ways secularist Turkey is way ahead of us: for instance there is a far higher proportion of women undergoing engineering degrees (1). This matters to me, if only because I was fed up with there only being a handful of women in the entire engineering department during my aborted degree in London!

    I have to be careful when talking about such things for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the Turks I associate with generally tend to be from the secular and educated strands, and are therefore not representative of those in other (e.g. some rural) areas of the country. It is therefore far too easy for me to go the other way, and assume that all Turks are of the same general mindset as the ones I know.

    See my post yesterday morning about why people who were against helping the FSA, yet want to help the Kurds, are missing a rather big elephant in the room.

    (1): http://www.baskent.edu.tr/~bdengiz/women in eng.pdf
  • The Sunil on Sunday proposes a new currency for Scotland, should "Yes" prevail:

    The BitCameron!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    ex al-queada guy's slant on what's happening, pretty interesting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    The Sunil on Sunday proposes a new currency for Scotland, should "Yes" prevail:

    The BitCameron!

    If they said they were going for a Silver backed ScotPound I'd vote Yes.

    Oh Romanticism
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited August 2014
    Lucky Guy.

    Your sources are at least no better because you are looking a conspiracy to fit your world view. I'm not here to persuade you otherwise and I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by you. It isn't going to happen so you may forget even trying. I do my thing, you do yours, I couldn't care less because I'll back what knowledge and information I have above yours. And my knowledge of Middle East sourced insurgency. politics, conflicts and movements is in excess than yours.

    Nothing you can say or do will persuade me otherwise.

    More evidence of MI5 involvement? Old news. That he was on the radar of the Security Services was known within days of the killing. In fact on this very forum in the hours after the killing I posted that it was very unlikely both these guys were complete unknowns.

    The fact that you even compare a highly centralised regime intelligence apparatus like Assad's having links, both intelligence and economic, with a ISIS and its forerunners with MI5 tracking an individual then not tracking him and the PM knowing that detail tells me all I need to know about the World you live in in your head.

    You have made up your mind, I have made up my mind. Thankfully in democratic society we can do that. In Assad's world or ISIS world or any other dictators world that kind of diversity might get you in trouble.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:



    Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.

    Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.

    OK, let's see, dude.

    In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?

    http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/

    At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).

    http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_press_release_2011.pdf

    So 41%, 42%, 45%. Not a great deal of variance.
    Sunil, you were on here earlier this quoting constituencies religious background as if this was going to have a material effect on the elections in 2014. As I pointed out to you and you actually acknowledged at the time the census records all population, not who is eligible to vote.

    In short it wasn't going to impact on diddle. Give it 10 years it might.

    Bearing in mind you have studied NI elections before you should known that and promptly failed to mention it. To that end what you quoted and the manner you quoted it was plain misleading to the uninitiated.
  • Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:



    Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.

    Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.

    OK, let's see, dude.

    In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?

    http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/

    At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).

    http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_press_release_2011.pdf

    So 41%, 42%, 45%. Not a great deal of variance.
    Sunil, you were on here earlier this quoting constituencies religious background as if this was going to have a material effect on the elections in 2014. As I pointed out to you and you actually acknowledged at the time the census records all population, not who is eligible to vote.

    In short it wasn't going to impact on diddle. Give it 10 years it might.

    Bearing in mind you have studied NI elections before you should known that and promptly failed to mention it. To that end what you quoted and the manner you quoted it was plain misleading to the uninitiated.
    Apologies, should have summarised like this -

    2011 religion brought up in = 45% Catholic
    2010 election NI vote = 42% Nationalist

    Census figure running slightly above Nationalist vote because under-18s are counted in the Census.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @schofieldkevin: BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.
  • Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    Scotland voting NO will make it so much easier for Labour to win elections in and after 2015!

    Be careful what you wish for!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    So basically no change, within MOE... this should be fun.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    Sorry, I meant this is a sensational poll for Yes... obviously :')
  • Kevin Schofield ‏@schofieldkevin 4m
    BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    Changes since last poll end of June, No +1, Yes, no change
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "In fact, it’s even easier to be comforted by the margin of error: even those 4% movements could easily be within it (for a 3% MoE poll), if they went from, say, 2% above the true position to 2% below it."

    Sorry, David, you can't do that.

    Having a poll that was 2 points below the true has some percentage likelihood; when we ask whether it it has then gone to +2 the true value, the probability is reduced accordingly. However what we can do as observers is create a false true value, which minimises this percentage.

    More simply for any poll with a quoted MoE, this poll could be one of the twenty - the one YouGov every month - that is out by more that also.

    (Also, as I have tried to describe before, the quoted margin of error is nothing like the real margin of error, since it accounts for only one sort of error when there are several.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: EXCL: Blow for Salmond as poll reveals Scotland on course to vote overwhelmingly to stay in the Union: http://t.co/1tNXbn8Lpf
  • The settled sovereign will of the Scottish people is to give wee Eck one hell of a beating.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Grandiose said:

    "In fact, it’s even easier to be comforted by the margin of error: even those 4% movements could easily be within it (for a 3% MoE poll), if they went from, say, 2% above the true position to 2% below it."

    Sorry, David, you can't do that.

    Having a poll that was 2 points below the true has some percentage likelihood; when we ask whether it it has then gone to +2 the true value, the probability is reduced accordingly. However what we can do as observers is create a false true value, which minimises this percentage.

    More simply for any poll with a quoted MoE, this poll could be one of the twenty - the one YouGov every month - that is out by more that also.

    (Also, as I have tried to describe before, the quoted margin of error is nothing like the real margin of error, since it accounts for only one sort of error when there are several.)

    I remember such movements being previously described as margin of error on the margin of error.
  • DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Kevin Schofield ‏@schofieldkevin 4m
    BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    Changes since last poll end of June, No +1, Yes, no change

    Not for the first time Eck won't be fancying something sub 40..
  • Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    Scotland voting NO will make it so much easier for Labour to win elections in and after 2015!
    No it won't. If NO does win, it will be on the basis of "change is too risky", which makes it harder for SLAB to argue for change in 2015.
  • Based on the first two full polls post debate, the one thing we can deduce, Yes have not received a boost.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I had bacon as part of my meal tonight.

    Delicious.

    Mr. Hopkins, there was a fellow, I think it might have been Al Murray, who insisted that Bacon was the proof that God exists - "even vegetarians like bacon"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The settled sovereign will of the Scottish people is to give wee Eck one hell of a beating.

    Hey Alex, your tea's oot!
  • If the polls remain where they are, and Yes do win next month, this would be the greatest polling upset since 1992, and it would damage the polling industry for a generation.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I had bacon as part of my meal tonight.

    Delicious.

    Mr. Hopkins, there was a fellow, I think it might have been Al Murray, who insisted that Bacon was the proof that God exists - "even vegetarians like bacon"
    Yeast is better evidence. It eats sugar and pisses alcohol!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    edited August 2014
    Y0kel said:

    Lucky Guy.

    Your sources are at least no better because you are looking a conspiracy to fit your world view. I'm not here to persuade you otherwise and I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by you. It isn't going to happen so you may forget even trying. I do my thing, you do yours, I couldn't care less because I'll back what knowledge and information I have above yours. And my knowledge of Middle East sourced insurgency. politics, conflicts and movements is in excess than yours.

    Nothing you can say or do will persuade me otherwise.

    More evidence of MI5 involvement? Old news. That he was on the radar of the Security Services was known within days of the killing. In fact on this very forum in the hours after the killing I posted that it was very unlikely both these guys were complete unknowns.

    The fact that you even compare a highly centralised regime intelligence apparatus like Assad's having links, both intelligence and economic, with a ISIS and its forerunners with MI5 tracking an individual then not tracking him and the PM knowing that detail tells me all I need to know about the World you live in in your head.

    You have made up your mind, I have made up my mind. Thankfully in democratic society we can do that. In Assad's world or ISIS world or any other dictators world that kind of diversity might get you in trouble.

    I haven't made up my mind at all actually, but I have determined to keep it open.

    Clearly the irony was lost on you, but I am not actually trying to make a case that David Cameron was involved in the murder of Lee Rigby, I am saying that there is as much material evidence for it as there is for any 'links' between Assad and Isis. If you had any material evidence of Assad agents meeting with and assisting someone from ISIS, the way MI5 appear to have done with this man, it would be the smoking gun in this conversation.

    On the contrary, it is you who is pushing a conspiracy theory here. One of the most surprising aspects of recent mainstream press coverage of world events is that it's now perfectly socially acceptable to be a conspiracy theorist -as long as you're accusing 'the other'. So it's ok to believe tales of destabilisation, irregular arms length warfare, manufactured insurgencies etc., as long as it's all Russia who's supposedly responsible. It's ok to believe in clandestine links and secret deals between Governments and terrorist groups, as long as it's Assad. Of course if you believe these things about 'The West', you're still a nutter.

    Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour' Dougie Alexander:

    Dave needs to call his bluff, not just for political reasons but because ISIL needs to be pushed back so the Iraqi minorities can be protected from their evil. It is the right thing to do and Dave is weak.


    Could you really make a proposal this critical without consensus in the government / breaking the Coalition?

    Is the idea that a prime minister should actually have principles and values that he or she is prepared to articulate and stand by, even if it means losing the baubles of office, really so out of date?
    ,
    The Tories in the Cabinet could easily be convinced. Both Fallon and Hammond are hawkish, so I'm sure they would itching to get involved.
    I suspect so - although I doubt anyone is "itching" to get involved. In my experience, foreign office ministers in particular - but all Cabinet Ministers - take this sort of thing incredibly seriously. (As an aside, I think that Warsi's resignation indicates the thinking among ministers as a whole, perhaps more than Cameron)

    But the issue is the LibDems - you've seen Clegg's weasel words already, and there is a strong "Ward" tendency within the party as well.

    I know you shouldn't think about matters in these terms, but it would be interesting to see what a split on war/peace would do - could it enable the LibDems to reclaim the anti-Iraq vote from Labour - or force Ed Miliband to take an anti-war position? (which might actually be popular)
    'Cleggs weasel words' Yes, another indicator as to what a waste of space he really is. I was prepared to give his a fair run as someone in govt but he has disappointed. But then again he is a prisoner of the libdem pacifists. Its just another indicator showing how they cannot make decisions when faced with choices. The left fundamentally do not like the west the west they are a part of. Any anti west faction gets their vote.


    So was the Lib Dem opposition to the Iraq war right or wrong?

    Was Tony Blair's and George Bush's idea of regime change in Iraq right or wrong?

    Was the Cameron/Sarcozy idea to bring down Gadaffi right or wrong?
    My opinion?
    It was the right thing to invade Iraq.
    It was right to support the rebels in Libya and prevent mass slaughter.

    There is a lot more to say on the subject but it is not in our interest to let the world go to hell in a hand cart and lefty efforts to prevent interventions on behalf of those we see as pro west as opposed to pro fruitcake are what give the frutcakes a free run.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.

    LuckyGuy,

    Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.

    He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    MrJones said:

    ex al-queada guy's slant on what's happening, pretty interesting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg

    A very worthwhile watch.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
  • Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.

    Scotland voting NO will make it so much easier for Labour to win elections in and after 2015!
    No it won't. If NO does win, it will be on the basis of "change is too risky", which makes it harder for SLAB to argue for change in 2015.
    So, how many seats will Lab lose in Scotland in 2015?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
  • RobD said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
    If TSE likes a film, it means it's bad (only kidding!)
  • Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    I'll pretend you didn't say that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
    It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    I'll pretend you didn't say that.
    Can you explain the plot to me then?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
    It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
    You went to watch that at the cinema? I assume you were dragged... LOL
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
    It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
    You went to watch that at the cinema? I assume you were dragged... LOL
    My MiL offered to babysit and it was either that or Transformers...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    For some reason raw samples seem to contain too many respondents who were born in England, and English born people are more likely to vote NO (Panelbase found the same, and also adopted place of birth as an extra weighting variable in their latest poll). This additional weight does makes a slight difference to final result, making the results slightly more “YES”. Under the old weighting scheme the results would have been YES 38%, NO 62%, a slight shift towards NO.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was funny but the 3 D was terrible and made many of the action sequences plain confusing. The extra scene at the end was weird and not worth the wait. My son was very pleased one of the WWE stars (Batista ?) was in it.

    The arrow thing was a very direct copy of a micro missile in Iain Banks unless it was in the comic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
    It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
    You went to watch that at the cinema? I assume you were dragged... LOL
    My MiL offered to babysit and it was either that or Transformers...
    You poor thing!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited August 2014
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    I'll pretend you didn't say that.
    Can you explain the plot to me then?
    Yes. (Spoiler Alert for anyone who hasn't seen Guardians yet)

    Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.

    Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.

    Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, Drax the Destroyer and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.

    They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.

    Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    Charles said:



    Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.

    LuckyGuy,

    Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.

    He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
    Well that's the difference, I'm not asking for anyone to believe anything I say on the basis of my 'credibility', I show people what I've seen that makes me believe my argument, and I ask them to judge that for themselves.

    A lot of people these days could do themselves a lot of favours by judging the information, not the source.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited August 2014
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was funny but the 3 D was terrible and made many of the action sequences plain confusing. The extra scene at the end was weird and not worth the wait. My son was very pleased one of the WWE stars (Batista ?) was in it.

    The arrow thing was a very direct copy of a micro missile in Iain Banks unless it was in the comic.
    See it in IMAX 3D, normal 3D sucks the [moderated]

    Yes, Drax was played by the WWE chap, not that I ever watch WWE
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    I'll pretend you didn't say that.
    Can you explain the plot to me then?
    Yes. (Spoiler Alert for anyone who hasn't seen Guardians yet)

    Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.

    Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.

    Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.

    They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.

    Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
    Yes, I got all that. It just seemed a little pointless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    My sons next target is Hercules. Anyone had that inflicted on them yet ?
  • The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.

    LuckyGuy,

    Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.

    He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
    Well that's the difference, I'm not asking for anyone to believe anything I say on the basis of my 'credibility', I show people what I've seen that makes me believe my argument, and I ask them to judge that for themselves.

    A lot of people these days could do themselves a lot of favours by judging the information, not the source.

    When someone has been consistently right, that makes their judgment more dependable.

    Your is, shall we say, unproven.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    YouGov really are dumb... WHY time the polling like that? Utter absurdity.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I've been listening to Radio 4 for OGH :(

    Still - at least I'll remember that programme as an option to look to on a Sunday night.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.

    A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.

    Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
    Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.

    Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
    Best Marvel film ever.

    It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
    It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
    I'll pretend you didn't say that.
    Can you explain the plot to me then?
    Yes. (Spoiler Alert for anyone who hasn't seen Guardians yet)

    Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.

    Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.

    Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, Drax The Destroyer and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.

    They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.

    Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
    Yes, I got all that. It just seemed a little pointless.
    It is setting up the plots for at least another 3 films, Avengers: The Age of Ultron, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and Avengers 3.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:



    Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.

    LuckyGuy,

    Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.

    He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
    Yeah, that's right ! So much so, one wonders if he has connection or even speaks for an important country in the Middle East. I don't mean Turkey.
  • RobD said:

    The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    YouGov really are dumb... WHY time the polling like that? Utter absurdity.
    It makes no sense.
  • JBriskin said:

    I've been listening to Radio 4 for OGH :(

    Still - at least I'll remember that programme as an option to look to on a Sunday night.

    Mike's segment got dropped.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    YouGov really are dumb... WHY time the polling like that? Utter absurdity.
    On the other hand, we can compare the two results [ even if they are sub samples but presumably representative - only numbers will be too small ].
  • Don't forget chaps and chapesses.

    Tomorrow should be mega polling Monday,

    We definitely should see Populus, YouGov, Ashcroft and if we're lucky ICM.
  • "Memento" on Film4 in about 5 minutes...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    As an ex-LSE alumni, I would recommend LSE which has a very good Law faculty. Mind you, I am not a Lawyer and I graduated in 1979.
  • DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    IIRC Antifrank did law at Durham, so they do have a good track record.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited August 2014
    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    Conrats to your daughter DavidL! You should be proud.

    I can't help with the Uni advice.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Almost impossible to see YES coming back from this. Five weeks out and the momentum is with NO, and they were already well ahead.

    I'm now predicting 58:42 for NO:YES

    I will maintain my 60 - 40. No - Yes.
  • DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    Congrats to you and your daughter. I only got 2 As and a B at A-level.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    "Memento" on Film4 in about 5 minutes...

    Great film - a bit too much for me now though. I guess I could look at my (literal) radio times...

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    Bizarre choice of timing, - who on earth commissioned this poll?
  • The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    Bizarre choice of timing, - who on earth commissioned this poll?
    The Sun.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    surbiton said:

    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    As an ex-LSE alumni, I would recommend LSE which has a very good Law faculty. Mind you, I am not a Lawyer and I graduated in 1979.
    London is the great temptation for LSE. It is the honey pot of the world.

    And yes I am very proud of her.

    We are going to see Durham next month. It would be good for the cricket.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    YouGov really are dumb... WHY time the polling like that? Utter absurdity.
    On the other hand, we can compare the two results [ even if they are sub samples but presumably representative - only numbers will be too small ].
    They were clearly trying to do such an analysis on the cheap! Commission two polls FFS.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    IIRC Antifrank did law at Durham, so they do have a good track record.
    Do you know when he is back from his sabbatical ?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    IIRC Antifrank did law at Durham, so they do have a good track record.
    Do you know when he is back from his sabbatical ?
    End of September.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    Congrats to you and your daughter. I only got 2 As and a B at A-level.
    Thanks Sunil. I didn't get anything like that either. What I find particularly satisfying and impressive is that she is no genius. She has achieved this through hard work and determination. Bodes well for her future I think.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    DavidL said:

    On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.

    As an ex-LSE alumni, I would recommend LSE which has a very good Law faculty. Mind you, I am not a Lawyer and I graduated in 1979.
    London is the great temptation for LSE. It is the honey pot of the world.

    And yes I am very proud of her.

    We are going to see Durham next month. It would be good for the cricket.
    Everyone should live in London for a bit. I am glad that I went to med school there, and even happier to leave. My brother had a great time at at LSE.
  • DavidL said:

    My sons next target is Hercules. Anyone had that inflicted on them yet ?

    I inflicted it upon myself. It's full of very lengthy and uninteresting battle sequences. I was bored and my girlfriend slept through almost half of it - though she probably didn't miss anything vital.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2014

    The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928

    Bizarre choice of timing, - who on earth commissioned this poll?
    The Sun.
    I appreciate that TSE - I was referring to the bright spark who set the dates. - two polls before and after would be more expensive but would have made some sense. this poll reveals diddly squat and therefore is a waste of time, money and effort.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119

    Don't forget chaps and chapesses.

    Tomorrow should be mega polling Monday,

    We definitely should see Populus, YouGov, Ashcroft and if we're lucky ICM.

    I think I Ashcroft is finished until early September now isn't he?

    Nevertheless, any Monday that includes ICM is indeed #MegaPollingMonday

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    My sons next target is Hercules. Anyone had that inflicted on them yet ?

    I inflicted it upon myself. It's full of very lengthy and uninteresting battle sequences. I was bored and my girlfriend slept through almost half of it - though she probably didn't miss anything vital.

    My wife still goes on about The Two Towers in that respect and contracted out the third film refusing point blank to go. Even I would admit the battle scenes were somewhat over done.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119
    edited August 2014
    I feel a bit bad about how I spoke to MalcG earlier - Being horrible to people isn't me (though in mitigation he did call me a cockroach! LOL!)
This discussion has been closed.