The Assad regime both Bashar and his late Da have supported Jihadi groups to a greater or lesser extent for 30 years. Links with ISIL and Syrian intelligence goes back to the aftermath of invasion of Iraq.
Assad used the Jihadi threat as a very useful tool before they actually appeared on the scene.
Assad's Shia friends in Iraq happily let the Sunni radicals (read ISIL) troupe over the border to fight in Syria as a handy way of getting them off their patch only to be bittem on the arse later.
ISIL have never fought the Assad regime with the aim of toppling Assad in the same way the other insurgent groups have. Instead it has focussed on carving out some territory, mainly in the north and east of the country.
ISIS has clashed almost as often with other insurgent groups as it has done with Assads forces.
In addition:
Al Qaeda labelled ISIL as damaging the fight against Assad.
ISIS has smuggled and provided oil to Assad's regime via its long held control of elements production and distribution assets in parts of Iraq.
This is not some clear cut story on Assad vs ISIL. Never has been.
No evidence for your so called historical fact I notice.
What do you want an academic treatise? Go look it up. There is nothing there new or revelatory.
Alternatively you tell me which of the above are absolutely incorrect.
Y0kel has a habit of musing about the world without quoting any sources, academic or otherwise.
Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.
Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.
Huzzah! So you CAN post links to verifiable sources after all! Keep up the good work!
How are things in E. Belfast, BTW?
Any halfwit can get something off the Internet to support their case. The question is sourcing, filtering and interpretation. I filter and interpret of my own accord rather than just take things wholesale.
You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far....
Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.
Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.
What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.
[You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far.... ]
Fairly sure it is unlikely the average EngScotWel PBer is going to be able to pick up on the ferocity of the marching season.
Maybe 'cos we on the "mainland" have moved on from the late 17th century? Is that true?
Well, err, I was under the understanding that mainland had negative connotations - they probably all do. To be honest - I was just trying to get my point across as quick as possible. I thought the thought was reasonable enough.
Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.
Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.
What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.
That is a major worry for me too, and Cameron and the rest in Brussels want to bring Turkey into the EU too.
But here if you fancy a few links randomly from the Internet. None of which again are new and are reporting it onward from much the same open sources as I got it from in the 1st place.
Channel 4 quotes The Telegraph's story. The Telegraph quotes unnamed intelligence sources. Time quotes a 'Western' diplomat quoting unnamed intelligence sources. You can believe it if you wish; I will continue to think it's an absurd PR fig leaf.
By the way, did you read that Channel 4 link?
'This raises the even more heartbreaking possibility of foreigners in Syria believing they are there to overthrow Assad, only to find themselves embroiled in something far darker.'
'Heartbreaking'? That they thought they were beheading people against Assad but may have been beheading them for him? Those poor innocent embroiled darlings. Genuinely sick stuff from C4 before the ISIS stuff really hit the fan.
Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.
Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.
What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.
That is a major worry for me too, and Cameron and the rest in Brussels want to bring Turkey into the EU too.
I wouldn't worry too much - yet, at any rate - we've just had a Turkish girl student work with us for a month or so in our lab as part of her Undergrad in Ankara, and she dressed very, shall we say, un-conservatively, and even drank alcohol too
I'm sure Mr Jessop of this parish may also have a word or two to add on this subject, being married to highly educated Turkish lady!
Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.
Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.
OK, let's see, dude.
In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?
At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).
Our politicians are like rabbits in the headlights. I really don;t think they know what to do next. I really don;t. They just want a situation they have all helped to create to just go away - and instead it just gets worse.
Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.
What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.
That is a major worry for me too, and Cameron and the rest in Brussels want to bring Turkey into the EU too.
I wouldn't worry too much - yet, at any rate - we've just had a Turkish girl student work with us for a month or so in our lab as part of her Undergrad in Ankara, and she dressed very, shall we say, un-conservatively, and even drank alcohol too
I'm sure Mr Jessop of this parish may also have a word or two to add on this subject, being married to highly educated Turkish lady!
Indeed, treating Turkey as just one country with the same mindset is like saying all UK citizens have a Home Counties (or Scottish, or Welsh) mindset. It is far too easy to generalise, and in so doing miss where the real pressure points and dangers lie. Of all the divisions, the secularist / Islamist one is the most important to us here in the UK, and in that the Islamists are winning, as the news tonight shows.
In some ways secularist Turkey is way ahead of us: for instance there is a far higher proportion of women undergoing engineering degrees (1). This matters to me, if only because I was fed up with there only being a handful of women in the entire engineering department during my aborted degree in London!
I have to be careful when talking about such things for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the Turks I associate with generally tend to be from the secular and educated strands, and are therefore not representative of those in other (e.g. some rural) areas of the country. It is therefore far too easy for me to go the other way, and assume that all Turks are of the same general mindset as the ones I know.
See my post yesterday morning about why people who were against helping the FSA, yet want to help the Kurds, are missing a rather big elephant in the room.
Your sources are at least no better because you are looking a conspiracy to fit your world view. I'm not here to persuade you otherwise and I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by you. It isn't going to happen so you may forget even trying. I do my thing, you do yours, I couldn't care less because I'll back what knowledge and information I have above yours. And my knowledge of Middle East sourced insurgency. politics, conflicts and movements is in excess than yours.
Nothing you can say or do will persuade me otherwise.
More evidence of MI5 involvement? Old news. That he was on the radar of the Security Services was known within days of the killing. In fact on this very forum in the hours after the killing I posted that it was very unlikely both these guys were complete unknowns.
The fact that you even compare a highly centralised regime intelligence apparatus like Assad's having links, both intelligence and economic, with a ISIS and its forerunners with MI5 tracking an individual then not tracking him and the PM knowing that detail tells me all I need to know about the World you live in in your head.
You have made up your mind, I have made up my mind. Thankfully in democratic society we can do that. In Assad's world or ISIS world or any other dictators world that kind of diversity might get you in trouble.
Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.
Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.
OK, let's see, dude.
In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?
At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).
Sunil, you were on here earlier this quoting constituencies religious background as if this was going to have a material effect on the elections in 2014. As I pointed out to you and you actually acknowledged at the time the census records all population, not who is eligible to vote.
In short it wasn't going to impact on diddle. Give it 10 years it might.
Bearing in mind you have studied NI elections before you should known that and promptly failed to mention it. To that end what you quoted and the manner you quoted it was plain misleading to the uninitiated.
Sunil you are the genius who failed to comprehend that in Northern Ireland that the Catholic Protestant mix in the Census didn't relate a) to the current voting population and b) relate to their basic politics on the Union.
Worse you've had involvement in accumulating and studying figures related to elections in NI and didnt even get those fundamental facts.
OK, let's see, dude.
In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?
At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).
Sunil, you were on here earlier this quoting constituencies religious background as if this was going to have a material effect on the elections in 2014. As I pointed out to you and you actually acknowledged at the time the census records all population, not who is eligible to vote.
In short it wasn't going to impact on diddle. Give it 10 years it might.
Bearing in mind you have studied NI elections before you should known that and promptly failed to mention it. To that end what you quoted and the manner you quoted it was plain misleading to the uninitiated.
Apologies, should have summarised like this -
2011 religion brought up in = 45% Catholic 2010 election NI vote = 42% Nationalist
Census figure running slightly above Nationalist vote because under-18s are counted in the Census.
Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin 4m BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.
Changes since last poll end of June, No +1, Yes, no change
"In fact, it’s even easier to be comforted by the margin of error: even those 4% movements could easily be within it (for a 3% MoE poll), if they went from, say, 2% above the true position to 2% below it."
Sorry, David, you can't do that.
Having a poll that was 2 points below the true has some percentage likelihood; when we ask whether it it has then gone to +2 the true value, the probability is reduced accordingly. However what we can do as observers is create a false true value, which minimises this percentage.
More simply for any poll with a quoted MoE, this poll could be one of the twenty - the one YouGov every month - that is out by more that also.
(Also, as I have tried to describe before, the quoted margin of error is nothing like the real margin of error, since it accounts for only one sort of error when there are several.)
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
"In fact, it’s even easier to be comforted by the margin of error: even those 4% movements could easily be within it (for a 3% MoE poll), if they went from, say, 2% above the true position to 2% below it."
Sorry, David, you can't do that.
Having a poll that was 2 points below the true has some percentage likelihood; when we ask whether it it has then gone to +2 the true value, the probability is reduced accordingly. However what we can do as observers is create a false true value, which minimises this percentage.
More simply for any poll with a quoted MoE, this poll could be one of the twenty - the one YouGov every month - that is out by more that also.
(Also, as I have tried to describe before, the quoted margin of error is nothing like the real margin of error, since it accounts for only one sort of error when there are several.)
I remember such movements being previously described as margin of error on the margin of error.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin 4m BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.
Changes since last poll end of June, No +1, Yes, no change
Not for the first time Eck won't be fancying something sub 40..
Mr. Hopkins, there was a fellow, I think it might have been Al Murray, who insisted that Bacon was the proof that God exists - "even vegetarians like bacon"
If the polls remain where they are, and Yes do win next month, this would be the greatest polling upset since 1992, and it would damage the polling industry for a generation.
Mr. Hopkins, there was a fellow, I think it might have been Al Murray, who insisted that Bacon was the proof that God exists - "even vegetarians like bacon"
Yeast is better evidence. It eats sugar and pisses alcohol!
Your sources are at least no better because you are looking a conspiracy to fit your world view. I'm not here to persuade you otherwise and I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by you. It isn't going to happen so you may forget even trying. I do my thing, you do yours, I couldn't care less because I'll back what knowledge and information I have above yours. And my knowledge of Middle East sourced insurgency. politics, conflicts and movements is in excess than yours.
Nothing you can say or do will persuade me otherwise.
More evidence of MI5 involvement? Old news. That he was on the radar of the Security Services was known within days of the killing. In fact on this very forum in the hours after the killing I posted that it was very unlikely both these guys were complete unknowns.
The fact that you even compare a highly centralised regime intelligence apparatus like Assad's having links, both intelligence and economic, with a ISIS and its forerunners with MI5 tracking an individual then not tracking him and the PM knowing that detail tells me all I need to know about the World you live in in your head.
You have made up your mind, I have made up my mind. Thankfully in democratic society we can do that. In Assad's world or ISIS world or any other dictators world that kind of diversity might get you in trouble.
I haven't made up my mind at all actually, but I have determined to keep it open.
Clearly the irony was lost on you, but I am not actually trying to make a case that David Cameron was involved in the murder of Lee Rigby, I am saying that there is as much material evidence for it as there is for any 'links' between Assad and Isis. If you had any material evidence of Assad agents meeting with and assisting someone from ISIS, the way MI5 appear to have done with this man, it would be the smoking gun in this conversation.
On the contrary, it is you who is pushing a conspiracy theory here. One of the most surprising aspects of recent mainstream press coverage of world events is that it's now perfectly socially acceptable to be a conspiracy theorist -as long as you're accusing 'the other'. So it's ok to believe tales of destabilisation, irregular arms length warfare, manufactured insurgencies etc., as long as it's all Russia who's supposedly responsible. It's ok to believe in clandestine links and secret deals between Governments and terrorist groups, as long as it's Assad. Of course if you believe these things about 'The West', you're still a nutter.
Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
Dave needs to call his bluff, not just for political reasons but because ISIL needs to be pushed back so the Iraqi minorities can be protected from their evil. It is the right thing to do and Dave is weak.
Could you really make a proposal this critical without consensus in the government / breaking the Coalition?
Is the idea that a prime minister should actually have principles and values that he or she is prepared to articulate and stand by, even if it means losing the baubles of office, really so out of date?
,
The Tories in the Cabinet could easily be convinced. Both Fallon and Hammond are hawkish, so I'm sure they would itching to get involved.
I suspect so - although I doubt anyone is "itching" to get involved. In my experience, foreign office ministers in particular - but all Cabinet Ministers - take this sort of thing incredibly seriously. (As an aside, I think that Warsi's resignation indicates the thinking among ministers as a whole, perhaps more than Cameron)
But the issue is the LibDems - you've seen Clegg's weasel words already, and there is a strong "Ward" tendency within the party as well.
I know you shouldn't think about matters in these terms, but it would be interesting to see what a split on war/peace would do - could it enable the LibDems to reclaim the anti-Iraq vote from Labour - or force Ed Miliband to take an anti-war position? (which might actually be popular)
'Cleggs weasel words' Yes, another indicator as to what a waste of space he really is. I was prepared to give his a fair run as someone in govt but he has disappointed. But then again he is a prisoner of the libdem pacifists. Its just another indicator showing how they cannot make decisions when faced with choices. The left fundamentally do not like the west the west they are a part of. Any anti west faction gets their vote.
So was the Lib Dem opposition to the Iraq war right or wrong?
Was Tony Blair's and George Bush's idea of regime change in Iraq right or wrong?
Was the Cameron/Sarcozy idea to bring down Gadaffi right or wrong?
My opinion? It was the right thing to invade Iraq. It was right to support the rebels in Libya and prevent mass slaughter.
There is a lot more to say on the subject but it is not in our interest to let the world go to hell in a hand cart and lefty efforts to prevent interventions on behalf of those we see as pro west as opposed to pro fruitcake are what give the frutcakes a free run.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
LuckyGuy,
Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.
He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
If TSE likes a film, it means it's bad (only kidding!)
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
You went to watch that at the cinema? I assume you were dragged... LOL
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
You went to watch that at the cinema? I assume you were dragged... LOL
My MiL offered to babysit and it was either that or Transformers...
For some reason raw samples seem to contain too many respondents who were born in England, and English born people are more likely to vote NO (Panelbase found the same, and also adopted place of birth as an extra weighting variable in their latest poll). This additional weight does makes a slight difference to final result, making the results slightly more “YES”. Under the old weighting scheme the results would have been YES 38%, NO 62%, a slight shift towards NO.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was funny but the 3 D was terrible and made many of the action sequences plain confusing. The extra scene at the end was weird and not worth the wait. My son was very pleased one of the WWE stars (Batista ?) was in it.
The arrow thing was a very direct copy of a micro missile in Iain Banks unless it was in the comic.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
Sounds like a summer blockbuster to me!
It was even worse than Sex Tape & that is saying something!
You went to watch that at the cinema? I assume you were dragged... LOL
My MiL offered to babysit and it was either that or Transformers...
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
I'll pretend you didn't say that.
Can you explain the plot to me then?
Yes. (Spoiler Alert for anyone who hasn't seen Guardians yet)
Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.
Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.
Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, Drax the Destroyer and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.
They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.
Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
LuckyGuy,
Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.
He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
Well that's the difference, I'm not asking for anyone to believe anything I say on the basis of my 'credibility', I show people what I've seen that makes me believe my argument, and I ask them to judge that for themselves.
A lot of people these days could do themselves a lot of favours by judging the information, not the source.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was funny but the 3 D was terrible and made many of the action sequences plain confusing. The extra scene at the end was weird and not worth the wait. My son was very pleased one of the WWE stars (Batista ?) was in it.
The arrow thing was a very direct copy of a micro missile in Iain Banks unless it was in the comic.
See it in IMAX 3D, normal 3D sucks the [moderated]
Yes, Drax was played by the WWE chap, not that I ever watch WWE
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
I'll pretend you didn't say that.
Can you explain the plot to me then?
Yes. (Spoiler Alert for anyone who hasn't seen Guardians yet)
Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.
Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.
Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.
They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.
Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
Yes, I got all that. It just seemed a little pointless.
Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
LuckyGuy,
Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.
He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
Well that's the difference, I'm not asking for anyone to believe anything I say on the basis of my 'credibility', I show people what I've seen that makes me believe my argument, and I ask them to judge that for themselves.
A lot of people these days could do themselves a lot of favours by judging the information, not the source.
When someone has been consistently right, that makes their judgment more dependable.
Is that no change? If so a little disappointing for no but quite acceptable given that Yougov were pretty much outliers on the margin of victory already.
A little over a month to go, over the weekend, you've had two pollsters deliver with leads of 14% and 22%.
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Oh I agree and the first rule of politics is when your opponent is down you need to keep kicking him where it hurts. Yes will have a better GOTV operation on the day and there are still some risks like a big Tory poll lead but there is a good chance of demoralisation and division on the Yes side. As I have said before I would like to see this question settled for a generation. That looked unlikely until the debate.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
Best Marvel film ever.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
It was terrible. so bad that I fell asleep for 45 minutes in the middle and still didn't miss any of the plot.
I'll pretend you didn't say that.
Can you explain the plot to me then?
Yes. (Spoiler Alert for anyone who hasn't seen Guardians yet)
Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.
Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.
Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, Drax The Destroyer and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.
They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.
Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
Yes, I got all that. It just seemed a little pointless.
It is setting up the plots for at least another 3 films, Avengers: The Age of Ultron, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and Avengers 3.
Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
LuckyGuy,
Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.
He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
Yeah, that's right ! So much so, one wonders if he has connection or even speaks for an important country in the Middle East. I don't mean Turkey.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
As an ex-LSE alumni, I would recommend LSE which has a very good Law faculty. Mind you, I am not a Lawyer and I graduated in 1979.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
IIRC Antifrank did law at Durham, so they do have a good track record.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
Conrats to your daughter DavidL! You should be proud.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
Congrats to you and your daughter. I only got 2 As and a B at A-level.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
As an ex-LSE alumni, I would recommend LSE which has a very good Law faculty. Mind you, I am not a Lawyer and I graduated in 1979.
London is the great temptation for LSE. It is the honey pot of the world.
And yes I am very proud of her.
We are going to see Durham next month. It would be good for the cricket.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
IIRC Antifrank did law at Durham, so they do have a good track record.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
IIRC Antifrank did law at Durham, so they do have a good track record.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
Congrats to you and your daughter. I only got 2 As and a B at A-level.
Thanks Sunil. I didn't get anything like that either. What I find particularly satisfying and impressive is that she is no genius. She has achieved this through hard work and determination. Bodes well for her future I think.
On a more serious note I have been really restrained and only mentioned once so far that my daughter did really well in her Highers getting straight As. After some work experience she is minded to take law at University but probably English law. She is minded to try Durham which she already had in mind for English. I would be grateful if anyone had any comments about Durham or possibly LSE as options for law.
As an ex-LSE alumni, I would recommend LSE which has a very good Law faculty. Mind you, I am not a Lawyer and I graduated in 1979.
London is the great temptation for LSE. It is the honey pot of the world.
And yes I am very proud of her.
We are going to see Durham next month. It would be good for the cricket.
Everyone should live in London for a bit. I am glad that I went to med school there, and even happier to leave. My brother had a great time at at LSE.
My sons next target is Hercules. Anyone had that inflicted on them yet ?
I inflicted it upon myself. It's full of very lengthy and uninteresting battle sequences. I was bored and my girlfriend slept through almost half of it - though she probably didn't miss anything vital.
Bizarre choice of timing, - who on earth commissioned this poll?
The Sun.
I appreciate that TSE - I was referring to the bright spark who set the dates. - two polls before and after would be more expensive but would have made some sense. this poll reveals diddly squat and therefore is a waste of time, money and effort.
My sons next target is Hercules. Anyone had that inflicted on them yet ?
I inflicted it upon myself. It's full of very lengthy and uninteresting battle sequences. I was bored and my girlfriend slept through almost half of it - though she probably didn't miss anything vital.
My wife still goes on about The Two Towers in that respect and contracted out the third film refusing point blank to go. Even I would admit the battle scenes were somewhat over done.
Comments
He's also the person on pb.com I would least like to piss off.....
You may have noticed that it has been a remarkably quiet marching season so far....
Of course if they had a free hand at home that would help, but they don't because Britain is now home to three million muslims and growing. Immigrants they in many cases let in.
What is desperately worrying for me is TURKEY. If Erdogan tightens the conservative grip there after his election, that is just so, so grim.
Fairly sure it is unlikely the average EngScotWel PBer is going to be able to pick up on the ferocity of the marching season.
As for 1688 - Yeah I'm a fan, sorry.
By the way, did you read that Channel 4 link?
'This raises the even more heartbreaking possibility of foreigners in Syria believing they are there to overthrow Assad, only to find themselves embroiled in something far darker.'
'Heartbreaking'? That they thought they were beheading people against Assad but may have been beheading them for him? Those poor innocent embroiled darlings. Genuinely sick stuff from C4 before the ISIS stuff really hit the fan.
As for 'involvement', there's far more material evidence of MI5's involvement with one of the killers of Lee Rigby: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638314/Did-MI5-help-Lee-Rigby-killer-escape-Kenyan-jail-murdered-soldier-MPs-probe-claims-Adebolajo-sprung-free-arrested-trying-join-terror-group.html
Are we to implicate David Cameron by the same token?
I'm sure Mr Jessop of this parish may also have a word or two to add on this subject, being married to highly educated Turkish lady!
Delicious.
In 2010 (Westminster), SF got 25.5% of the NI vote, while the SDLP got 16.5%. So that makes a Nationalist total of 42.0%, correct?
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/
At the 2011 UK Census, the NI population with a Catholic "Community Background" (religion brought up in) was 45% (or a figure of 41% if you prefer the "religion" question).
http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_press_release_2011.pdf
So 41%, 42%, 45%. Not a great deal of variance.
In some ways secularist Turkey is way ahead of us: for instance there is a far higher proportion of women undergoing engineering degrees (1). This matters to me, if only because I was fed up with there only being a handful of women in the entire engineering department during my aborted degree in London!
I have to be careful when talking about such things for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the Turks I associate with generally tend to be from the secular and educated strands, and are therefore not representative of those in other (e.g. some rural) areas of the country. It is therefore far too easy for me to go the other way, and assume that all Turks are of the same general mindset as the ones I know.
See my post yesterday morning about why people who were against helping the FSA, yet want to help the Kurds, are missing a rather big elephant in the room.
(1): http://www.baskent.edu.tr/~bdengiz/women in eng.pdf
The BitCameron!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg
Oh Romanticism
Your sources are at least no better because you are looking a conspiracy to fit your world view. I'm not here to persuade you otherwise and I sure as hell am not going to be persuaded by you. It isn't going to happen so you may forget even trying. I do my thing, you do yours, I couldn't care less because I'll back what knowledge and information I have above yours. And my knowledge of Middle East sourced insurgency. politics, conflicts and movements is in excess than yours.
Nothing you can say or do will persuade me otherwise.
More evidence of MI5 involvement? Old news. That he was on the radar of the Security Services was known within days of the killing. In fact on this very forum in the hours after the killing I posted that it was very unlikely both these guys were complete unknowns.
The fact that you even compare a highly centralised regime intelligence apparatus like Assad's having links, both intelligence and economic, with a ISIS and its forerunners with MI5 tracking an individual then not tracking him and the PM knowing that detail tells me all I need to know about the World you live in in your head.
You have made up your mind, I have made up my mind. Thankfully in democratic society we can do that. In Assad's world or ISIS world or any other dictators world that kind of diversity might get you in trouble.
In short it wasn't going to impact on diddle. Give it 10 years it might.
Bearing in mind you have studied NI elections before you should known that and promptly failed to mention it. To that end what you quoted and the manner you quoted it was plain misleading to the uninitiated.
2011 religion brought up in = 45% Catholic
2010 election NI vote = 42% Nationalist
Census figure running slightly above Nationalist vote because under-18s are counted in the Census.
Be careful what you wish for!!!
BREAKING: Exclusive #indyref YouGov poll for The Sun puts No on 55% and Yes on 35%. Without Don't Knows, it's No 61% and Yes 39%.
Changes since last poll end of June, No +1, Yes, no change
Sorry, David, you can't do that.
Having a poll that was 2 points below the true has some percentage likelihood; when we ask whether it it has then gone to +2 the true value, the probability is reduced accordingly. However what we can do as observers is create a false true value, which minimises this percentage.
More simply for any poll with a quoted MoE, this poll could be one of the twenty - the one YouGov every month - that is out by more that also.
(Also, as I have tried to describe before, the quoted margin of error is nothing like the real margin of error, since it accounts for only one sort of error when there are several.)
Complacency would appear to the biggest danger to the Union.
Clearly the irony was lost on you, but I am not actually trying to make a case that David Cameron was involved in the murder of Lee Rigby, I am saying that there is as much material evidence for it as there is for any 'links' between Assad and Isis. If you had any material evidence of Assad agents meeting with and assisting someone from ISIS, the way MI5 appear to have done with this man, it would be the smoking gun in this conversation.
On the contrary, it is you who is pushing a conspiracy theory here. One of the most surprising aspects of recent mainstream press coverage of world events is that it's now perfectly socially acceptable to be a conspiracy theorist -as long as you're accusing 'the other'. So it's ok to believe tales of destabilisation, irregular arms length warfare, manufactured insurgencies etc., as long as it's all Russia who's supposedly responsible. It's ok to believe in clandestine links and secret deals between Governments and terrorist groups, as long as it's Assad. Of course if you believe these things about 'The West', you're still a nutter.
Well I'm sorry, I don't buy your conspiracy theory. Show me some evidence and I might start.
It was the right thing to invade Iraq.
It was right to support the rebels in Libya and prevent mass slaughter.
There is a lot more to say on the subject but it is not in our interest to let the world go to hell in a hand cart and lefty efforts to prevent interventions on behalf of those we see as pro west as opposed to pro fruitcake are what give the frutcakes a free run.
Went to see Guardians today with my son. Good fun but best film ever? I take it that was a joke.
It was the 70s and 80s soundtrack that clinched it for me (and the sense of humour)
Y0kel's been posting here a lot longer than you and, to date, has been extremely accurate and well informed about the Middle East and, usually, ahead of the curve in his analysis.
He's got a heck of a lot more credibility than you have, sonny.
The arrow thing was a very direct copy of a micro missile in Iain Banks unless it was in the comic.
Thanos, the chap we saw during the Avengers, is using Ronan The Accuser, to collate the various infinity stones throughout the galaxy, some of which we saw in Thor: The Dark World to ultimate destroy and control the universe.
Ronan doesn't know this, and just wants to destroy the planet Xandar.
Star Lord, Groot, Rocket, Drax the Destroyer and Gamora (Thanos' daughter of sorts) eventually get together to stop Ronan destroying Xandar.
They call themselves the Guardians of the Galaxy.
Ultimately The Guardians and The Avengers will unite in Avengers 3 to defeat Thanos.
A lot of people these days could do themselves a lot of favours by judging the information, not the source.
Yes, Drax was played by the WWE chap, not that I ever watch WWE
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8928
Your is, shall we say, unproven.
Still - at least I'll remember that programme as an option to look to on a Sunday night.
Tomorrow should be mega polling Monday,
We definitely should see Populus, YouGov, Ashcroft and if we're lucky ICM.
I can't help with the Uni advice.
And yes I am very proud of her.
We are going to see Durham next month. It would be good for the cricket.
Nevertheless, any Monday that includes ICM is indeed #MegaPollingMonday