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Has Biden’s Afghan move put the mockers on the 2024 nomination? – politicalbetting.com
Has Biden’s Afghan move put the mockers on the 2024 nomination? – politicalbetting.com
Even though 78 year old Biden has only been in office since January the speculation is starting to build around 2024. Is Biden, as some reports suggest, going to seek re-election in three years’ time when he will be in his early 80s.
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All in all, those numbers aren’t too bad.
20% is just a ludicrous number for 2024. People at the top hardly ever quit voluntarily, and incumbent presidents usually win. You can't predict the result by a news cycle three years out. If his health holds up he's likely to run again, and if he runs again he's at least a 50-50 shot, probably quite a bit better.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9917275/Marseilles-clash-Nice-ABANDONED-home-fans-storm-pitch-ATTACK-players.html
NZ has jumped from 21 to 35 cases. Their concern will be that they are rapidly losing the opportunity to get it under early control.
Both of them under severe restrictions. We have 30K+ cases per day with almost no restrictions. Australia have now accepted that they can't stop it and just need to vaccinate as many as the UK to remove restrictions. NZ still on their Zero Covid approach but one wonders for how long.
EDIT: forget that; it’s Australian.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/22/hidden-immunity-booster-jabs-may-not-needed/
I don't know where they got this stat, but if correct, it is incredibly encouraging.
These Bubble governments really do have a talent for spaffing good money up the wall. Sitting duck aircraft carrier with no planes, Trident, Afghanistan, Iraq, HS2, Brexit, the public service pension reform fiasco, the list is endless. It’s almost as if they’ve rejected Maggie’s attempted supply side revolution.
The Scotland-Ireland bridge is very obviously an enormous squirrel. It is indicative of the mind of someone who doesn’t know about and doesn’t care about the transport needs of those countries. A fraction of the £33 billion* sum would make a huge difference to existing transport infrastructure. Give £5 billion one-off payments each to Stormont and Holyrood, drop the idiotic bridge nonsense, and watch transport infrastructure flourish in NI and Scotland.
The 1.4 bn wasted on the Millennium Dome and the £10 bn wasted on Concorde pale into insignificance compared to the Scotland-Ireland bridge white elephant.
(*£33 billion is, of course, a preposterous underestimate)
It already is more than hot air because I see them working on it nearly every day.
I have (extremely reluctantly) given up correcting American spellings and grammar. They are so prolific that it is like trying to eradicate Rhododendron ponticum with one handsaw. However, a pet hate of mine is the mixing of American English and English English in one and the same document. Pick a version and bloody stick to it, you ignorant buffoons.
I can only presume that post-cognitive dissonance has not kicked in with Biden voters yet. If you look at Johnson you now see only 34% approval, and that figure is bound to fall as the Covid crisis recedes and the full horror of Brexit takes shape.
If Kabul turns into a Suez bloodbath then both Biden’s and Johnson’s approval ratings will drop off a cliff. Anthony Eden has a good excuse: he was seriously ill. What excuses are Biden and Johnson going to come up with?
According to the BBC a surprisingly small number - 20 - have died at Kabul airport so far. That will surely not be the final figure.
How much have you wagered on this market?
Our middle child got his second vaccination yesterday. He was delighted and so am I. That’s all four adults done. Just the wee one left and he’s as fit as a fiddle and ineligible anyway.
If and when we do get it (we did antibody tests, and no one’s had it yet), I’m still expecting a dreadful week, but I’m kinda hoping I don’t end up in hospital.
The papers running on chaos obviously isn't helpful to the president but the 2024 election isn't going to turn on the GOP criticizing Biden for not getting enough Afghan refugees into America.
I am a bit of a fan of our crown princess Victoria. A lovely woman doing a good job*. However, one day I heard her speaking English and I was horrified. Pure Yankee. Somehow you expect royals to speak English like the Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha clan.
I avoid speaking English with Swedes. They just annoy the crap out of me. Working for the state I am mercifully not obliged to speak English at work very often, unlike those poor buggers at Volvo, AstraZeneca and nearly every other large concern who are forced to speak “the company language”. “Volvo English” is a favourite object of scorn.
One of my involuntary pastimes is proof reading documentation written by Swedes in English. Sometimes you lose the will to live.
(* I’m a republican in Scotland and a monarchist in Sweden. Go figure. As the Yanks say.)
You do realise that being “unfailingly charming” is just a tool, don’t you? Just like your name-dropping.
The Taliban meets Sky News in Doha to discuss what happens next - and issues a stark warning about the withdrawal of troops from the country.
Taliban spokesperson Dr Suhail Shaheen said: "It's a red line. President Biden announced that on 31 August they would withdraw all their military forces. So if they extend it that means they are extending occupation while there is no need for that."
He added: "If the US or UK were to seek additional time to continue evacuations - the answer is no. Or there would be consequences.
"It will create mistrust between us. If they are intent on continuing the occupation it will provoke a reaction." "
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/afghanistan-taliban-warns-there-will-be-consequences-if-biden-delays-withdrawal-of-us-troops-12388436
A persistent problem with polling is that a percentage for/against something indicates breadth of a view but not really depth (and that might be something even the individuals in questions can't accurately assess). If 20% of people are mildly peeved that matters less than if 8% are livid and won't forget, and have their vote determined by said cause of fury.
"Afghanistan: Boris Johnson to personally plead with Joe Biden to extend deadline for US withdrawal
The PM will use an emergency G7 summit of the world's most powerful leaders to appeal to the president to delay the 31 August deadline to tackle the chaos and mayhem at Kabul airport."
Edit fixed link
https://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan-boris-johnson-to-personally-plead-with-joe-biden-to-extend-deadline-for-us-withdrawal-12388435
The big story in the US is whether Biden is going to get his finance package through or not. If he does Buttigieg will practically never be off the news as the US infrastructure finally gets refurbished. That will make him a serious player but apparently there are some Democrats who are not supporting it at the moment.
Either way I think the hardest bit will be getting the last few troops out of whatever nationality. Nobody defending the airport perimeter then.
Maybe boris wants US to say they might stay beyond August so the attacks being planned for Sept 1st fail because we all disappeared in the night.
"Along with the drop in approval, there's been a more specific impact on qualities the public sees in Mr. Biden. He'd been positive on qualities like competence, focus, and effectiveness — now those are each at least slightly net negative."
And
"With the Taliban now in control, Americans fear the threat of terrorism will go up. It may come as no surprise that this view is held in even higher numbers by Republicans, for whom it is often a larger concern and a point on which to criticize the Biden administration. "
And
"On some of these measures we find a lot of partisan agreement, more than we commonly see on other topics these days. Most in each party say the way troops were withdrawn has gone badly, and most across party lines agree that the U.S. ought to help Afghans who helped the U.S."
All bad news for Biden. As they note cross party condemnation is a big deal these days.
London spaffs money at the north, mostly on stuff Northerners don't actually want (see also very expensive trainsets so the London politicians can do their "northern" photo ops in Manchester and be sure to be back home in London in time for tea). They then have the cheek to expect the north to be grateful for their largesse.
Its also a circular game - London is full of consultants and lobbyists, tax payer funded pressure groups and the rest. They say they are investing £x in infrastructure in the North, then shovel half of the £x to their mates in London, before half the time cancelling the project anyway. This sort of activity is actually London subsidising London.
Of course this utter misdirection of funds happens at every level of government which is why the state should be cut back to being as small as possible, with as much direct democracy as possible.
A trivial example. My local council decided to paint 20mph signs on the road past my house. It makes zero difference to the speed of anyone driving down that street, and probably cost the equivalent of my entire council tax payment for the year. No rational person asked "would you like us to spend all your council tax on white paint" would say yes, but they did it anyway, at a time when they were also whinging and groaning about having no money because of government cuts.
Australia has changed its laws to combat foreign interference, and America says eight out of ten industrial espionage cases now involve China. So what is the United Front doing in the UK? Jane Corbin investigates this powerful but shadowy organisation. Has influence become interference as China bids to become the most powerful nation on earth?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000z2yt
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58277226
HS2 Phase 1 is being constructed at the moment.
HS2 Phase 2a is currently at the enabling works stage.
HS2 Phase 2b (both legs) are at the advanced planning stage, with work possible starting next year. If one or both legs are not canned.
People are just lazily leaving off the phase and mangling it together with the project name.
Saturday I had a bit of a sore throat / headache. Sunday morning I still had them, plus a bit of a fever, and flu like aching joints. Spent most of Sunday in bed feeling grim. No lose of taste or smell, no cough, sneezed a couple of times but not persistently.
Concluded it was probably manflu.
Was chatting to my young lady (she's 165 miles away) and she insisted I took a LFT - came up strongly positive in seconds.
Got a drive through PCR to go to this morning, but I'm pretty sure it will be positive. Feeling a bit better this morning - still got a terrible sore throat (getting a throat swab for the PCR may actually cause so much pain I won't be able to do it - the LFT was a nasal one), but no fever.
Looks like I get 10 days isolation at home, which feels as if its probably going to be a bit silly - at the current rate of progress I think I'll be back to normal (and thus not infectious) in another couple of days.
And Good Morning everybody. Weather looked, yesterday evening as though it was brightening up, but the cloud cover is back this morning. Fractionally warmer though, at 13.9degC.
That's two projects that have swallowed up nearly all that money. Necessary projects; yes (though I still think the Queensferry Bridge should have had a walkway/cyclepath), but such money soon disappears.
I'm paraphrasing what seems a rather complex legislative situation, so hope I have got it roughly right.
In other news Buttigieg announced he is to have a child with his partner.
Biggest gamble? Delegating to the Taliban on a point of honour the task of ensuring a least bad withdrawal of those eligible.
Biggest risk? They lose interest or, as likely, other factions choose the airport to make a play for power or a place at the table with bloody consequences for all.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapores-covid-19-travel-lane-with-germany-should-you-go
As an example: the little 'un had some jabs at ?four? years old. One in each arm. The next morning, one had come up with a 50-p sized redness. It was not bothering him, but I told the teacher. I got a phone call at lunchtime from the school telling me that his arm was swollen; they had fetched the nurse from the adjacent village college who had said he needed to see a doctor immediately.
I got his medical book and phoned the GP surgery. I told them a school nurse had said he needed to see a doctor, and they said they'd book him in the next week. They were adamant.
I went to the school, and his entire arm was swollen and red, and he had a fever. I had two choices: to take him to A&E, or try the doctor first as it was much nearer. I did the latter, stood in the queue, and when I reached the front, they said I'd have to take the original appointment. So I took his shirt off in the queue and showed them his arm, and explained it was an injection done at their surgery.
Five minutes later, I was in with a doctor. They called in the nurse who gave the injections, who could not remember which injection had gone into which arm.
Fortunately he was okay after a couple of days, but we still don't know which injection he had the reaction to ...
And this was one story of many. They really are utterly hopeless, yet there is not much chance of a change.
In simple terms, a having a 20moh zone is a very effective way of limiting speeds to 30mph, whereas the pre-existing occasional 30 sign on a lamppost is not.
So the likelihood is that your council tax money was well spent. And your neighbour’s contribution spent on something else.
I'm glad your son was ok, but (though I said it flippantly) it's a serious problem for the country that the NHS and GPs have a nigh on religious status.
Ian will bat for United Kingdom business Down Under and help them seize the opportunities created by our historic trade deal.
He’ll do a brilliant job
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1429685742691835907?s=20
SAS extraction snatch squad picked up a couple of dozen of their own near Kandahar, using a Hercules landed in the desert.
Reading between the lines, it looks like they were down there trying to reopen the airfield, but the Taliban got there first and our boys decided it wasn’t worth the fight.
It also tells us there’s a lot of special forces hiding in the ‘Stan at the moment, presumably trying to mop up Westerners before the safe routes out close.
Who dares wins.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9917109/SAS-dramatic-desert-raid-save-troops-Taliban.html
The most "amusing" of which is, when I had a suspected broken bone they made an appointment to see a doctor five weeks later to discuss treatment.
I was at a private consultant the following day (and yes readers it was broken).
https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1429691053360259075?s=20
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05007275
Not sure about the situation now, but training of receptionists, the front-line staff, the people who control access used to be 'inadequate. Too often it appeared to patients that the receptionists duty was to 'protect' the GP from patients.
And record-keeping, especially in the days of hand-writing could be abysmal.
IMHO the basic problem is the contractual system; GP's are usually (not invariably nowadays) small businesses, possibly single handed, maybe 2+ partners 'in contract' to provide services, perhaps with a practice manager, maybe not. And while some of those services are essential, some can be cherry-picked.
You're quite right that if people don't move about, they can't compare; I'm prepared to bet (!) that if I went to the practice where you had your awful experience I could find a few patients who thought the place was wonderful.
5,725: The number of people airlifted out of Afghanistan on U.K. flights since August 13.
3,100: The number of those who are Afghans.
1,000: The number evacuated in a 14-hour period this weekend.
6,000: The number the Times’ Steve Swinford reports Britain wants to evacuate from Afghanistan this week. The last RAF evacuation flight had been due to take off tomorrow. Swinford reports that will now be pushed back to Friday or Saturday to get more people out. He says ministers still fear “hundreds, if not thousands” will be left behind.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-bide-your-time-58-days-of-summer-reshuffle-rumor-mill/
Another story: I needed an urgent scan on my lungs. It is arranged and I go to Hinchinbrooke. A couple of days later I get a letter from the doctor saying the results are in. So I turn up with Mrs J, who is very worried, and the doctor doesn't know anything about it. I show him a letter, from the GP surgery, with his name, telling me to come in for the results. We wait, but they cannot find them. The result was that I had to take time off and go back to Hunchinbrooke for more scans...
The surgery blamed Hinchinbrooke. But I doubt it: why did the GP surgery send me a letter saying they had the results, along with an appointment time?
We have other stories, and I have heard worse from other people. Yet our previous GP in Romsey (Southampton, not Town), was superb: proactive, efficient, professional. And the one before that south of Cambridge was the same.
Problem is, this government usually does cave in to pressure like this - see schools reopening and the postponement of June unlocking - although I wonder if it was a tactical error leaking this one in the Mirror rather than the Mail.
The bigger problem, and why this is genius on the part of the road lobby, is that without the HS2 extension to Leeds and the reduction in pressure on the ECML there is no realistic prospect of reopening any closed lines or otherwise improving local services in the East Midlands and particularly in Yorkshire, as the station capacity simply won’t be there.
I only found that out after 45 mins on hold trying to speak to their receptionist, who was pretty rude and unhelpful when I finally got hold of her.
I think I'm now registered with a local practice, but don't really know 100% as I filled in all the forms online, and only got an instantaneous automated email which literally just said (in plain text, nothing else) "thank you for registering with *** medical practice."
I got my jab my driving 30 miles to a no questions asked walk in centre. I'll probably have to repeat the process for the second dose (I've no booking).
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1429696651984261126?s=20
Brilliant service. I was offered an ambulance to the nearest A&E in Inverness, which was three hours away. Instead I awaited for my dad and sister to come and rescue me, as I couldn't drive.
GP services really are varied.
They're terrible when it comes to conditions they cannot diagnose or categorise.
I've no idea about mental health conditions, but I doubt it's overall good.
It's not the most egregious bit of "traffic calming" they've done on my estate - on the main route out, they decided to repaint the lines so the main road suddenly turns right into a tiny side road, with the intention that everyone who wants to go straight on (99% of people) has to stop and look because they don't have right of way anymore.
The problem is that as there is hardly ever any traffic coming from the side road, a lot of people ignore the whole thing, and carry straight on - with the predictable result of quite a lot of near misses and the occasional direct hit whenever anyone is actually headed out of the side road.
There are some very good GPs and it is a hard job to do well, but very patchy. I saw a middle aged diabetic last week with no blood tests for 4 years. That isn't covid, just bad medicine.
http://www.cambourneparishcouncil.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/item-7-healthcare.pdf
I have no idea if this is true, but a couple of people have said that the issue is that GP surgeries get paid not just by population, but by age as well. Since we have a very young population, they get less funding than if we we had more elderly people.
Anyone know if that's correct?
Sore throat – get some Chloraseptic spray. It's magic.
Anything as you say complicated or involving MDTs or cross department liaison or which requires further investigation beyond first glance they are too often dreadful.
The use of salaried staff doesn't of itself give rise to problems either. In fact, it should improve the situation. Your, Dr F, are salaried, after all!
AFAIK GP training doesn't include business management, and, to be fair, nor should they be expected to have good business management skills. As you say, ' it is a hard job to do well'!
FPT That is a stonkingly good article. Really detailed and informative. I do love the growing tendency of some papers (the NYT and the Guardian being the best examples) to go for the 'long' article looking at issues or events in real depth.
Anyway, many thanks for posting Nigel.
With original SARS-CoV-2, Pfizer & Moderna were over 90% effective at stopping infection (& stopping transmission). With delta, this has dropped to ~50%. https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1429525708565487616
I tested positive for COVID this week, along with 9 of 12 fully vaxxed friends (among others), days after we attended an outdoor wedding (that required proof of vaccination) in 1 of the lowest-risk states in the country.
https://twitter.com/drmeowza/status/1429221776270135296
Regarding badly designed junctions, one recent phenomenon is dashcam footage being sent to traffic departments. Whether it helps, or the planners just blame stupid motorists, I could not say. Here is an example I saw yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MeToxTpoco
Makes absolutely no difference whatsoever to those in the UK.
After seeing my doctor 3 times over a year with a worrying skin condition and being told it was nothing, it was a locum who finally decided it should be seen by a specialist who confirmed it was a Basal Cell Carcinoma and also asked why I had taken so long to come and see her about it.
That said, in terms of the actual running of the practice my GPs is the best I have ever used. They serve a large rural community and suffer terribly from pressures brought about by lack of space and a rapidly increasing population due to lots of new housing developments in the local villages. And yet they have adopted technology and tools such as 'Ask my GP' to make their systems both effective and quick. They use it as I envisage it should be used for rapid triage of cases so that they can concentrate on those that actually need a face to face appointment. This means that generally you get a face to face at the surgery on the same day and they have more time to actually talk to people and discuss general health to identify any possible issues that have not been raised.
Compare this with my sister's surgery back in Newark where waiting times to see a GP are still measured in weeks and they will discuss nothing but the specific issue you booked to see them about.
Two months later I was in hospital being treated for cancer.
Said GP has now left, to go into private practice.
Levelling up my arse.
I have an annual check at The Mole Clinic. The thought of a GP knowing a dimple from a blister from something more sinister and then being able to refer you on is laughable.
Yours is another from the PB NHS shop of horrors anecdotes.
"
Monkfield Medical Practice (MMP) had extra funding to start with because of the new town factor, this has now stopped. The Carr-Hill Formula is the main funding formula for medical practices and it takes account of average population: you get extra funding for older people living in the area.
Cambourne’s age distribution doesn’t fit the classic bell shape. Under this formula MMP stood to lose half its funding. They wrote a bid for exceptional case funding, which was successful but they will still lose £100,000 of funding. However they have been told by the Primary Care Trust (PCT) that this is as good as we can get so the situation has changed as MMP is no longer trying to kick up a fuss about the funding, they are trying to make the best of it. They are looking at where they can make cutbacks internally, e.g. by sending patients text messages, rather than sending letters. Their system sends automated text reminders for appointments. There were 300 appointments in November that people didn’t attend, which represents a huge amount of money lost.
Comment from audience: “you should charge the people who do not attend”.
MMP: “unfortunately we can’t”.
"
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/opinion/afghanistan-us-taliban.html