Biden recovering a touch in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Biden recovering a touch in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen in the latest WH2024 betting Biden has taken a bit of a tumble following the blistering criticism that he has been under after his Afghanistan withdrawal decision. It looks as though he has failed though it was his predecessor, Trump, who reached a deal with the Taliban.
Comments
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First0
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Second!0
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On topic,
SELL
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I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)1 -
Sound advice.rcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
Of course like myself you thought he would crash and burn in the 2020 Primaries (technically I believe you thought he would withdraw before Iowa so not 'in' the Primaries, I thought he would withdraw after doing disastrously in Iowa).
So take the advice of us Biden sceptics with a pinch of salt.2 -
OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
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Off topic. Robert - are you planning to do any more of your informative videos? I enjoyed them and my eldest (who was doing Economics at Uni) found them quite handy when arguing positions with her tutor. She got a 1st btw. I might forgive her that she's now training to be a CA with a tax consultancy team.rcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)1 -
🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf0 -
+1. Most screaming lay in the history of political betting.rcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)0 -
First split? I thought the Biden camp hated Johnson already.Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf2 -
Yeah, fair point.Alistair said:
Sound advice.rcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
Of course like myself you thought he would crash and burn in the 2020 Primaries (technically I believe you thought he would withdraw before Iowa so not 'in' the Primaries, I thought he would withdraw after doing disastrously in Iowa).
So take the advice of us Biden sceptics with a pinch of salt.
It's amazing how much the Democrats were fucked over by (1) the chaos in Iowa, and (2) Mike Bloomberg.0 -
That's very kind.ExiledInScotland said:
Off topic. Robert - are you planning to do any more of your informative videos? I enjoyed them and my eldest (who was doing Economics at Uni) found them quite handy when arguing positions with her tutor. She got a 1st btw. I might forgive her that she's now training to be a CA with a tax consultancy team.rcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
Sadly I started an auto insurance company, and that's taken all my time...0 -
Worth an FOI in a bit to see how much the rebrand costs.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
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Sounds like an acknowledgement that it is England that is a nation, rather than the UK.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
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LinkedIn reckons £7mtlg86 said:
Worth an FOI in a bit to see how much the rebrand costs.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
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still reckon he’s better than Trump
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And, if so, how?
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Has it?Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
https://highwaysengland.co.uk/0 -
Yes, I agree with you and your Pa. it’s not so much the Debacle of Kabul, tho that is tragic enough, it’s Biden’s confused, unconvincing demeanor in interviews since. He looks miserable, bewildered and guilty, and he is so old I’m not at all sure he can ‘bounce back’. The Dems will - must - find someone youngerrcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
By 2024 Americans will be YEARNING for a relatively youthful president0 -
EXCL: The permanent secretaries of the Foreign Office, Home Office and Ministry of Defence are ALL on holiday during the Afghanistan evacuation
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/14284571719021568020 -
Cannot be right as you maintain everyone was on holidayScott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf0 -
We report tomorrow:
* Foreign Office’s top civil servant has been on holiday all week + still is
* Dominic Raab was on hol in Greece all last week as well as weekend
* Eye witness has new claims on Raab’s beach time on Sunday
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/19/dominic-raab-defies-calls-resign-failure-phone-afghanistans/0 -
England is a nation.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
Scans better.
All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.0 -
Apologies for the non reply to the person who asked me yesterday to comment on rumours of tensions between US & UK forces at Kabul and that UK miltary were venturing out to do extraction operatiosn in kabul.
I could not quite add all the rumours up and was wondering why such operations, assumed very quietly done, were being reported by people who you couldnt link up with the right channels. I also had no concept of the how.
24 hours later, still trying to fully work it out. Given that the UK is reportedly working through intermediaries rather than direct with Taliban representatatives the facilitation of extraction may have been agreed somewhere because if it was a genuine covert operation without agreement, somebody has rather large balls. Not impossible because the British are more willing to do things like that with a light footprint than other countries. Even though this story looks to be mainstream, there is still gaps in that story.
the pciture at KBL seems confused, the stats tell you the evacuation has moved into a higher gear, yet Im hearing other stories that there is still major problems both for US citizens and, as is now public, eligible Afghans to get to the airport safely. Perhaps an indicator will be what the private security firms who advise and provide support for Westerners wokring there start telling their customers to do.
As of earlier today it seems some are telling their customers to try to make it to the airport. Others are saying stay put.
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https://www.linkedin.com/posts/highways-england_today-we-have-become-national-highways-with-activity-6834165620100100096-b-3SSunil_Prasannan said:
Has it?Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
https://highwaysengland.co.uk/1 -
On topic
Biden is a one term President.0 -
Because it sets highways standards for the whole of the UK and it sounds a bit more Unionist.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
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Nah, that was Mike Bloomberg in 2020 or Andrea Leadsome in 2019.IshmaelZ said:
+1. Most screaming lay in the history of political betting.rcs1000 said:On topic,
SELL
.
I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)0 -
The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?Alistair said:
He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
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The last conflict I think we could have led in with the absence of the US was Kosovo under Blair. And that would have just been Kfor peacekeeping after the air campaign had been won, as we had nothing like the air or naval assets of the US.Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf
Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.2 -
As I said .. from dawn till zzzzs...Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf0 -
So, you hate Transport Scotland then?StuartDickson said:
England is a nation.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
Scans better.
All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.
https://www.transport.gov.scot/0 -
Biden leaves Afghanistan on the brink of civil war. A charge he shares with Trump.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Trump left the USA on the brink of civil war.0 -
The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!1
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You ask for a reason and then get angry when one is given to you.MrEd said:
The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?Alistair said:
He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
Were you asking in good faith?1 -
You would have appreciated Scott a dozen years ago, when he was beating up on Gordon Brown.squareroot2 said:
As I said .. from dawn till zzzzs...Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf0 -
Tonight's arslikhan award goes to..
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Evidence of a government falling apart?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
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I'm not sure that even Corbyn can be blamed for the Afgani government falling apart.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.1 -
So you haven't caught up with Raab's refusal to make a phonecall whilst on his holibobs then?turbotubbs said:
Evidence of a government falling apart?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
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@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=190 -
If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.
So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency0 -
No one is saying the Democrats are the saviour of democracy.MrEd said:
The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?Alistair said:
He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
But they aren't Trump.
Obama, Bush and every other President in recent times handed over power peacefully.
I have no doubt that if (or perhaps more like when...) Harris loses, then she will hand over peacefully.
Respecting democracy when you lose is the single most important thing for any political system.
I'd rather have a government that banned alcohol and made insurance companies illegal and taxed me at 99% but which could be evicted by voters, than one that taxed me ay 10%, but which refused to depart if the voters said "be gone".6 -
Thanks, Scott, do keep us posted on everyone's holidays.Scott_xP said:We report tomorrow:
* Foreign Office’s top civil servant has been on holiday all week + still is
* Dominic Raab was on hol in Greece all last week as well as weekend
* Eye witness has new claims on Raab’s beach time on Sunday
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/19/dominic-raab-defies-calls-resign-failure-phone-afghanistans/
And maybe take one yourself ?4 -
It’s hardly ‘crisis, what crisis’ is it? I’m not entirely sure what the government is supposed to be doing right now. Things have moved out of any nominal control we might have had.Mexicanpete said:
So you haven't caught up with Raab's refusal to make a phonecall whilst on his holibobs then?turbotubbs said:
Evidence of a government falling apart?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
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Biden's rating has certainly plunged since the withdrawal from 53% to 46% now with Reuters/Ipsos (the same rating as Harris was on).
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-approval-drops-lowest-level-this-year-after-taliban-takeover-2021-08-17/
A poll yesterday also had Trump beating Biden 43% to 37%
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2021/election_regrets_most_wouldn_t_vote_to_reelect_biden0 -
Not particularly. And certainly not as angry as you got, nor indeed as personal, when I commented when Trump was the better choice over Biden.Alistair said:
You ask for a reason and then get angry when one is given to you.MrEd said:
The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?Alistair said:
He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
Were you asking in good faith?
Before you comment on the splinter in somebody else’s eye, Young man, take a look at the plank in your own.0 -
In Wales, it's Transport FOR Wales (and in London, Transport FOR London).Casino_Royale said:
So, you hate Transport Scotland then?StuartDickson said:
England is a nation.Gallowgate said:OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’?
Scans better.
All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.
https://www.transport.gov.scot/0 -
Labour didnt cause the GFC, but there is much that can be said about Gordon browns use of PFI, and breaking his own spending rules. He truly believed he had ended boom and bust, but he was wrong...CorrectHorseBattery said:If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.
So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency0 -
His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/0 -
It's the butterfly effect of Corbyn. If he had never existed none of this would have happened... possibly.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not sure that even Corbyn can be blamed for the Afgani government falling apart.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.0 -
Hello @CorrectHorseBattery you are right of course, oppositions - which ever party - will try and tie the ruling Government to failure. It’s cynical, maybe sometimes justified but it’s politics.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.
So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency
FWIW, I don’t think Johnston really could have done much to prevent this, it is clear Biden doesn’t listen to him. Nor do our military chiefs seem much better than the US ones.1 -
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/0 -
How is that the government falling apart?Mexicanpete said:
So you haven't caught up with Raab's refusal to make a phonecall whilst on his holibobs then?turbotubbs said:
Evidence of a government falling apart?CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
As far as I understand that phone call happened with someone else making it.
What a non story. 😴0 -
Means naught without a Trafalgar.NickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/2 -
I'm sorry but it's not particularly surprising that a lot of the Civil Service and some ministers go on holiday in August. I watched a documentary about the 2011 riots recently and it was the same then. If Parliament's not sitting and it's silly season then they can go on holiday.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The real question that tweet doesn't ask is whether they came home early enough. In my view, no they didn't, although the level of difference that could have been made is up for debate.1 -
Boobies and other bits of nudity.Alistair said:@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19
They are ditching the live show element.
But I suspect those will go in the future.
I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.
Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.0 -
I remmember it well. .. but he was right about Brown who was bonkers. Scottnpaste has gone bonkers.. beware about spending your life on an anti brexit agenda...you could end up like ScottnpasteMexicanpete said:
You would have appreciated Scott a dozen years ago, when he was beating up on Gordon Brown.squareroot2 said:
As I said .. from dawn till zzzzs...Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf1 -
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.1 -
On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.
Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.
Which is in its way quite apt.
https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127
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Of course Brown caused the financial crisis. Slight difference there.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.
So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency1 -
He listened to Balls who talked balls anout his neo endogenous growth theory.turbotubbs said:
Labour didnt cause the GFC, but there is much that can be said about Gordon browns use of PFI, and breaking his own spending rules. He truly believed he had ended boom and bust, but he was wrong...CorrectHorseBattery said:If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.
So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency0 -
I don’t think the Taliban were ever our ‘brave allies’..MattW said:On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.
Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.
Which is in its way quite apt.
https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/3557180795601270 -
46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.MrEd said:
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 20120 -
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Didn't the UK and France take the lead in Libya with the US in a supporting role?Casino_Royale said:
The last conflict I think we could have led in with the absence of the US was Kosovo under Blair. And that would have just been Kfor peacekeeping after the air campaign had been won, as we had nothing like the air or naval assets of the US.Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf
Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.
0 -
Haha Robert, since you’ve mentioned it, I have to answer. I won’t defend it but I will hazard a guess at Trump’s strategy.rcs1000 said:As an aside, good work Ms Lagarde.
In the Doha surrender, the US promised to help the Taliban get economic assistance. (Come on @MrEd, defend that.)
And the Taliban asked for $500m of transitional funding.
And Ms Lagarde has said "non". Good for her.
I think with Doha Trump was taking a bet, and not a particularly scrupulous one at that, namely that if was re-elected, the Taliban would not dare to run over Afghanistan because they knew that Trump would not countenance the consequences and so would have blasted them to kingdom come. However, if he wasn’t re-elected, Biden would have to deal with the issue and would get all the brickbats for it.
Do I condemn Trump for it? Yes with the caveat the States could not have stayed for ever but it was all about how the withdrawal was managed. It was a cynical ploy and it has screwed Afghanistan.
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Depressingly the same old responses underneath about ‘looking after our own’ or ‘veterans’MattW said:On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.
Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.
Which is in its way quite apt.
https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/3557180795601272 -
Presumably cake, the non-sexually explicit nudity (!) the statement says they will continue to permit, and whatever they have managed to get out of it,Alistair said:@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=190 -
Can someone explain why Brexit and lorry drivers are behind this?Alistair said:@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=191 -
They did, Sarkozy and Cameron were more hawkish and led that conflict with Obama more reluctant and only joining in later.dodrade said:
Didn't the UK and France take the lead in Libya with the US in a supporting role?Casino_Royale said:
The last conflict I think we could have led in with the absence of the US was Kosovo under Blair. And that would have just been Kfor peacekeeping after the air campaign had been won, as we had nothing like the air or naval assets of the US.Scott_xP said:🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf
Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.
Apart from George W Bush most recent US Presidents have actually been less interested in getting involved in military action abroad than their British and French counterparts.
Indeed of post war US Presidents only JFK and and George W Bush really were ideological and evangelical in terms of promoting liberal democracy and freedom abroad
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I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.0
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Dear a God, that’s abysmal.Theuniondivvie said:Tonight's arslikhan award goes to..
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It will go crypto. The tyranny of the paypals and mastercards is about to endTheScreamingEagles said:
Boobies and other bits of nudity.Alistair said:@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19
They are ditching the live show element.
But I suspect those will go in the future.
I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.
Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.1 -
Actually, it's pretty normal for the IMF to step in post revolutions, civil wars, etc. Certainly both the WSJ and the FT were reporting yesterday that they expected the IMF to approve the emergency loans.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.HYUFD said:
46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.MrEd said:
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.0 -
Someone's got to be buying all that Only Fans content.Philip_Thompson said:
Can someone explain why Brexit and lorry drivers are behind this?Alistair said:@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=192 -
Could be sarcasm?Taz said:
Dear a God, that’s abysmal.Theuniondivvie said:Tonight's arslikhan award goes to..
0 -
So only 35% for Biden and Harris combined.
That doesn't sound like the betting money is expecting things to go well for the Dems during the next three years.0 -
As far as I know, three consecutive Presidents have been elected pledging to take the US back out of Afghanistan. In fact excluding Bush who was handling the Twin Towers aftermath, as far as I know no POTUS has been elected on a platform of having US troops in Afghanistan.Mexicanpete said:
It's the butterfly effect of Corbyn. If he had never existed none of this would have happened... possibly.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not sure that even Corbyn can be blamed for the Afgani government falling apart.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.
So I don't think it's realistic to put Biden's decision on Corbyn. Even if not Biden, another POTUS of either party could have done the same thing.0 -
Which is, by the by, an eloquent argument for Brexit. No matter how shit the UK government, we can throw them out, and they meekly leavercs1000 said:
No one is saying the Democrats are the saviour of democracy.MrEd said:
The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?Alistair said:
He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
But they aren't Trump.
Obama, Bush and every other President in recent times handed over power peacefully.
I have no doubt that if (or perhaps more like when...) Harris loses, then she will hand over peacefully.
Respecting democracy when you lose is the single most important thing for any political system.
I'd rather have a government that banned alcohol and made insurance companies illegal and taxed me at 99% but which could be evicted by voters, than one that taxed me ay 10%, but which refused to depart if the voters said "be gone".
Not so the European Commission3 -
I don't think the 25h would be a curve ball, I think it would be putting a tired old man out of his misery.MrEd said:
Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.HYUFD said:
46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.MrEd said:
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
But I think Biden will choose retire on the grounds of ill health in 2022 rather than have the 25th invoked. Of course, Harris is hardly on the left of the Democratic Party, so I wouldn't expect to see AOC get her wish list were she to take over.0 -
Not necessarily particularly surprising. One suspects that the pull up the drawbridge and open borders tendencies are both very loud but very small. Truth is, most people and most MPs are quite willing to accept refugees; rather, the debate is about two things, namely who is being accepted and how many. Security vetted vulnerable families, rescued directly from Kabul in known and manageable numbers, are bound to get a better press than dinghy loads of randoms (predominantly single young men) from who knows where, washing up in an unregulated and uncontrolled tide upon the Kentish shore.MattW said:On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.
Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.
Which is in its way quite apt.
https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127
One suspects that Mr Anderson has the former in mind and not the latter as the intended recipients for his constituents' necessarily finite reserves of generosity, and I imagine that most of them would concur.0 -
Yes.Leon said:
It will go crypto. The tyranny of the paypals and mastercards is about to endTheScreamingEagles said:
Boobies and other bits of nudity.Alistair said:@TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19
They are ditching the live show element.
But I suspect those will go in the future.
I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.
Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.
PBers. If I were asked about crypto, I would say one word "Monero". The darknet marketplaces are increasingly moving away from Bitcoin and towards Monero, and yet Monero's market cap is less than 1% of Bitcoin's.1 -
Except Harris polls no better than Biden or generally worse.MrEd said:
Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.HYUFD said:
46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.MrEd said:
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
If Biden wants a replacement candidate for the top job in 2024 he would be better replacing Harris with someone like Buttigieg and making the latter Secretary of State for instance to be a serious contender for Harris.
Buttigieg could then be Macron to his Hollande as they try to stop the return of Trump/Sarkozy0 -
I haven't read the comments below the line yet so may just be repeating what others have said. If so, my apologies.
But I think there has been a fair bit of misdirection by those Biden supporters and apologists who make something of the fact it was Trump who agreed the withdrawal terms. It is not the withdrawal or the terms of the agreement with the Taliban that are the source of the immediate outrage (even if it was a pretty rubbish deal), it is the way that the withdrawal has been so badly mishandled by both Biden and Johnson.
They have known for more than a year that this was coming. They have had time to plan for it and do some really basic things like identifying and evacuating all those who would be in immediate danger because of their work for the Western allies. They could have offered asylum to those women who they had persuaded to join the Afghan police and military. They certainly could have made sure that all those who worked directly with the western forces had the opportunity to leave the country and seek sanctuary in the West if they wanted to. They have done none of this. They have waited until the last minute and then panicked and there are tens of thousand of people who trusted the West and who worked with us to make our job easier and to make their country a better place to live who we have just thrown to the wolves.
If you want an idea of the scale of just how badly Biden has fucked this up, just consider the Wall Street Journal yesterday said there are some 15,000 US citizens now trapped in Afghanistan with no means of escape. That is before you even start to consider the thousands of Afghans who we should be looking to get out to safety.
The leadership of both the UK and the US have been criminally negligent over this.7 -
Sorry. What scenario are you imagining?HYUFD said:
Except Harris polls no better than Biden or generally worse.MrEd said:
Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.HYUFD said:
46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.MrEd said:
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
If Biden wants a younger VP to be a replacement candidate for the top job in 2024 he would be better replacing Harris with someone like Buttigieg.
Buttigieg could then be Macron to his Hollande as they try to stop the return of Trump/Sarkozy
(1) Biden won't be running in 2024.
(2) Biden won't be replacing his Vice President.1 -
Looks like they need to get to work in those poppyfields. That is 90% of Afghanistans exports.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.
Incidentally, we had a notice today that there is some "heroin" on the streets cut with a very strong synthetic opiate. There has been a spate of fatal overdoses.0 -
As a total aside, I think the liberal US press has come out of Afghanistan rather well. They've not been cheerleaders for the administration, but have been willing to call it out for its failures.3
-
Come on man, it’s been 5 days, maybe 6, since we left 38,000 Afghanis to be tortured to death by the Taliban, and you’re STILL banging on about it??MrEd said:
Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.HYUFD said:
46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.MrEd said:
There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.HYUFD said:
Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was beforeNickPalmer said:His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.0 -
The reason that the Taliban have recently overrun Afghanistan is because the price of organic fair trade heroin has been hammered by the rise of synthetic opiates. The previous Afghan government was unable to bring prosperity, and that made the Taliban suddenly a whole bunch more attractive.Foxy said:
Looks like they need to get to work in those poppyfields. That is 90% of Afghanistans exports.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.
Incidentally, we had a notice today that there is some "heroin" on the streets cut with a very strong synthetic opiate. There has been a spate of fatal overdoses.0 -
They can sell all the mineral assets to the Chinese who have the need and the cash.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.
0 -
I posted on our local forums in similar vein, a few people came out with the 'vets'/'looking after our own' line, and they were completely swamped by a 7-1 margin. Nobody's against looking after veterans too.Taz said:
Depressingly the same old responses underneath about ‘looking after our own’ or ‘veterans’MattW said:On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.
Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.
Which is in its way quite apt.
https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/3557180795601270 -
Yes, spot on.Richard_Tyndall said:I haven't read the comments below the line yet so may just be repeating what others have said. If so, my apologies.
But I think there has been a fair bit of misdirection by those Biden supporters and apologists who make something of the fact it was Trump who agreed the withdrawal terms. It is not the withdrawal or the terms of the agreement with the Taliban that are the source of the immediate outrage (even if it was a pretty rubbish deal), it is the way that the withdrawal has been so badly mishandled by both Biden and Johnson.
They have known for more than a year that this was coming. They have had time to plan for it and do some really basic things like identifying and evacuating all those who would be in immediate danger because of their work for the Western allies. They could have offered asylum to those women who they had persuaded to join the Afghan police and military. They certainly could have made sure that all those who worked directly with the western forces had the opportunity to leave the country and seek sanctuary in the West if they wanted to. They have done none of this. They have waited until the last minute and then panicked and there are tens of thousand of people who trusted the West and who worked with us to make our job easier and to make their country a better place to live who we have just thrown to the wolves.
If you want an idea of the scale of just how badly Biden has fucked this up, just consider the Wall Street Journal yesterday said there are some 15,000 US citizens now trapped in Afghanistan with no means of escape. That is before you even start to consider the thousands of Afghans who we should be looking to get out to safety.
The leadership of both the UK and the US have been criminally negligent over this.
In fact it may even turn out that they've managed to screw up to the extent that there will be significant US and UK casualties in coming days, let alone Afghans who have worked with us.0 -
Sorry did Phil just say Gordon Brown caused the Global Financial Crisis, on the sauce early again were we2
-
Or that they expect another Dem to emerge.another_richard said:So only 35% for Biden and Harris combined.
That doesn't sound like the betting money is expecting things to go well for the Dems during the next three years.0 -
I’ll be blunt, I don’t think the Democrats would necessarily peacefully handover the reins of power if they lost. Obama had to tell Hilary Clinton to accept she lost in 2016 and things have got more polarised since then.rcs1000 said:
No one is saying the Democrats are the saviour of democracy.MrEd said:
The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?Alistair said:
He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.MrEd said:still reckon he’s better than Trump
?
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
But they aren't Trump.
Obama, Bush and every other President in recent times handed over power peacefully.
I have no doubt that if (or perhaps more like when...) Harris loses, then she will hand over peacefully.
Respecting democracy when you lose is the single most important thing for any political system.
I'd rather have a government that banned alcohol and made insurance companies illegal and taxed me at 99% but which could be evicted by voters, than one that taxed me ay 10%, but which refused to depart if the voters said "be gone".
And logically why would the Democrats - if they believe their rhetoric about the GOP and Trump - believe it is right to hand over power to a party they say is anti-democratic? Surely better to come up with an excuse as to why they shouldn’t. They don’t have to worry about their own side accepting - the NYT, Washington Post etc will lap it up.
If you think that is hyperbole, what about the latest DHS advice which infers that if you raise questions about the 2020 election, it’s akin to domestic terrorism? It’s not too far a step from this to using national security reasons to start saying the Republicans should not be allowed to contest elections:
-1
