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Biden recovering a touch in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Biden recovering a touch in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen in the latest WH2024 betting Biden has taken a bit of a tumble following the blistering criticism that he has been under after his Afghanistan withdrawal decision. It looks as though he has failed though it was his predecessor, Trump, who reached a deal with the Taliban.
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SELL
.I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
Of course like myself you thought he would crash and burn in the 2020 Primaries (technically I believe you thought he would withdraw before Iowa so not 'in' the Primaries, I thought he would withdraw after doing disastrously in Iowa).
So take the advice of us Biden sceptics with a pinch of salt.
@FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf
It's amazing how much the Democrats were fucked over by (1) the chaos in Iowa, and (2) Mike Bloomberg.
Sadly I started an auto insurance company, and that's taken all my time...
And, if so, how?
Big point in his favour.
https://highwaysengland.co.uk/
By 2024 Americans will be YEARNING for a relatively youthful president
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1428457171902156802
* Foreign Office’s top civil servant has been on holiday all week + still is
* Dominic Raab was on hol in Greece all last week as well as weekend
* Eye witness has new claims on Raab’s beach time on Sunday
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/19/dominic-raab-defies-calls-resign-failure-phone-afghanistans/
Scans better.
All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.
I could not quite add all the rumours up and was wondering why such operations, assumed very quietly done, were being reported by people who you couldnt link up with the right channels. I also had no concept of the how.
24 hours later, still trying to fully work it out. Given that the UK is reportedly working through intermediaries rather than direct with Taliban representatatives the facilitation of extraction may have been agreed somewhere because if it was a genuine covert operation without agreement, somebody has rather large balls. Not impossible because the British are more willing to do things like that with a light footprint than other countries. Even though this story looks to be mainstream, there is still gaps in that story.
the pciture at KBL seems confused, the stats tell you the evacuation has moved into a higher gear, yet Im hearing other stories that there is still major problems both for US citizens and, as is now public, eligible Afghans to get to the airport safely. Perhaps an indicator will be what the private security firms who advise and provide support for Westerners wokring there start telling their customers to do.
As of earlier today it seems some are telling their customers to try to make it to the airport. Others are saying stay put.
Biden is a one term President.
Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”
Small things, but important.
Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.
https://www.transport.gov.scot/
Trump left the USA on the brink of civil war.
Were you asking in good faith?
Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.
Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?
https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19
So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency
But they aren't Trump.
Obama, Bush and every other President in recent times handed over power peacefully.
I have no doubt that if (or perhaps more like when...) Harris loses, then she will hand over peacefully.
Respecting democracy when you lose is the single most important thing for any political system.
I'd rather have a government that banned alcohol and made insurance companies illegal and taxed me at 99% but which could be evicted by voters, than one that taxed me ay 10%, but which refused to depart if the voters said "be gone".
And maybe take one yourself ?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-approval-drops-lowest-level-this-year-after-taliban-takeover-2021-08-17/
A poll yesterday also had Trump beating Biden 43% to 37%
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2021/election_regrets_most_wouldn_t_vote_to_reelect_biden
Before you comment on the splinter in somebody else’s eye, Young man, take a look at the plank in your own.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
FWIW, I don’t think Johnston really could have done much to prevent this, it is clear Biden doesn’t listen to him. Nor do our military chiefs seem much better than the US ones.
As far as I understand that phone call happened with someone else making it.
What a non story. 😴
The real question that tweet doesn't ask is whether they came home early enough. In my view, no they didn't, although the level of difference that could have been made is up for debate.
They are ditching the live show element.
But I suspect those will go in the future.
I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.
Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.
Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.
Which is in its way quite apt.
https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127
In the Doha surrender, the US promised to help the Taliban get economic assistance. (Come on @MrEd, defend that.)
And the Taliban asked for $500m of transitional funding.
And Ms Lagarde has said "non". Good for her.
47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
I think with Doha Trump was taking a bet, and not a particularly scrupulous one at that, namely that if was re-elected, the Taliban would not dare to run over Afghanistan because they knew that Trump would not countenance the consequences and so would have blasted them to kingdom come. However, if he wasn’t re-elected, Biden would have to deal with the issue and would get all the brickbats for it.
Do I condemn Trump for it? Yes with the caveat the States could not have stayed for ever but it was all about how the withdrawal was managed. It was a cynical ploy and it has screwed Afghanistan.
Apart from George W Bush most recent US Presidents have actually been less interested in getting involved in military action abroad than their British and French counterparts.
Indeed of post war US Presidents only JFK and and George W Bush really were ideological and evangelical in terms of promoting liberal democracy and freedom abroad
I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
That doesn't sound like the betting money is expecting things to go well for the Dems during the next three years.
So I don't think it's realistic to put Biden's decision on Corbyn. Even if not Biden, another POTUS of either party could have done the same thing.
Not so the European Commission
But I think Biden will choose retire on the grounds of ill health in 2022 rather than have the 25th invoked. Of course, Harris is hardly on the left of the Democratic Party, so I wouldn't expect to see AOC get her wish list were she to take over.
One suspects that Mr Anderson has the former in mind and not the latter as the intended recipients for his constituents' necessarily finite reserves of generosity, and I imagine that most of them would concur.
PBers. If I were asked about crypto, I would say one word "Monero". The darknet marketplaces are increasingly moving away from Bitcoin and towards Monero, and yet Monero's market cap is less than 1% of Bitcoin's.
If Biden wants a replacement candidate for the top job in 2024 he would be better replacing Harris with someone like Buttigieg and making the latter Secretary of State for instance to be a serious contender for Harris.
Buttigieg could then be Macron to his Hollande as they try to stop the return of Trump/Sarkozy
But I think there has been a fair bit of misdirection by those Biden supporters and apologists who make something of the fact it was Trump who agreed the withdrawal terms. It is not the withdrawal or the terms of the agreement with the Taliban that are the source of the immediate outrage (even if it was a pretty rubbish deal), it is the way that the withdrawal has been so badly mishandled by both Biden and Johnson.
They have known for more than a year that this was coming. They have had time to plan for it and do some really basic things like identifying and evacuating all those who would be in immediate danger because of their work for the Western allies. They could have offered asylum to those women who they had persuaded to join the Afghan police and military. They certainly could have made sure that all those who worked directly with the western forces had the opportunity to leave the country and seek sanctuary in the West if they wanted to. They have done none of this. They have waited until the last minute and then panicked and there are tens of thousand of people who trusted the West and who worked with us to make our job easier and to make their country a better place to live who we have just thrown to the wolves.
If you want an idea of the scale of just how badly Biden has fucked this up, just consider the Wall Street Journal yesterday said there are some 15,000 US citizens now trapped in Afghanistan with no means of escape. That is before you even start to consider the thousands of Afghans who we should be looking to get out to safety.
The leadership of both the UK and the US have been criminally negligent over this.
(1) Biden won't be running in 2024.
(2) Biden won't be replacing his Vice President.
Incidentally, we had a notice today that there is some "heroin" on the streets cut with a very strong synthetic opiate. There has been a spate of fatal overdoses.
In fact it may even turn out that they've managed to screw up to the extent that there will be significant US and UK casualties in coming days, let alone Afghans who have worked with us.
And logically why would the Democrats - if they believe their rhetoric about the GOP and Trump - believe it is right to hand over power to a party they say is anti-democratic? Surely better to come up with an excuse as to why they shouldn’t. They don’t have to worry about their own side accepting - the NYT, Washington Post etc will lap it up.
If you think that is hyperbole, what about the latest DHS advice which infers that if you raise questions about the 2020 election, it’s akin to domestic terrorism? It’s not too far a step from this to using national security reasons to start saying the Republicans should not be allowed to contest elections: