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Biden recovering a touch in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 19 in General
imageBiden recovering a touch in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen in the latest WH2024 betting Biden has taken a bit of a tumble following the blistering criticism that he has been under after his Afghanistan withdrawal decision. It looks as though he has failed though it was his predecessor, Trump, who reached a deal with the Taliban.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,189
    First
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    Second!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    Sound advice.

    Of course like myself you thought he would crash and burn in the 2020 Primaries (technically I believe you thought he would withdraw before Iowa so not 'in' the Primaries, I thought he would withdraw after doing disastrously in Iowa).

    So take the advice of us Biden sceptics with a pinch of salt.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,497
    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,235
    edited August 19
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    Off topic. Robert - are you planning to do any more of your informative videos? I enjoyed them and my eldest (who was doing Economics at Uni) found them quite handy when arguing positions with her tutor. She got a 1st btw. I might forgive her that she's now training to be a CA with a tax consultancy team.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    +1. Most screaming lay in the history of political betting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    First split? I thought the Biden camp hated Johnson already.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    Sound advice.

    Of course like myself you thought he would crash and burn in the 2020 Primaries (technically I believe you thought he would withdraw before Iowa so not 'in' the Primaries, I thought he would withdraw after doing disastrously in Iowa).

    So take the advice of us Biden sceptics with a pinch of salt.
    Yeah, fair point.

    It's amazing how much the Democrats were fucked over by (1) the chaos in Iowa, and (2) Mike Bloomberg.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    Off topic. Robert - are you planning to do any more of your informative videos? I enjoyed them and my eldest (who was doing Economics at Uni) found them quite handy when arguing positions with her tutor. She got a 1st btw. I might forgive her that she's now training to be a CA with a tax consultancy team.
    That's very kind.

    Sadly I started an auto insurance company, and that's taken all my time...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,127

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    Worth an FOI in a bit to see how much the rebrand costs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,947

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    Sounds like an acknowledgement that it is England that is a nation, rather than the UK.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,497
    tlg86 said:

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    Worth an FOI in a bit to see how much the rebrand costs.
    LinkedIn reckons £7m
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,189

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    Has it?

    https://highwaysengland.co.uk/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    Yes, I agree with you and your Pa. it’s not so much the Debacle of Kabul, tho that is tragic enough, it’s Biden’s confused, unconvincing demeanor in interviews since. He looks miserable, bewildered and guilty, and he is so old I’m not at all sure he can ‘bounce back’. The Dems will - must - find someone younger

    By 2024 Americans will be YEARNING for a relatively youthful president
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    EXCL: The permanent secretaries of the Foreign Office, Home Office and Ministry of Defence are ALL on holiday during the Afghanistan evacuation
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1428457171902156802
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    Cannot be right as you maintain everyone was on holiday
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    We report tomorrow:
    * Foreign Office’s top civil servant has been on holiday all week + still is
    * Dominic Raab was on hol in Greece all last week as well as weekend
    * Eye witness has new claims on Raab’s beach time on Sunday

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/19/dominic-raab-defies-calls-resign-failure-phone-afghanistans/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    England is a nation.

    Scans better.

    All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 723
    Apologies for the non reply to the person who asked me yesterday to comment on rumours of tensions between US & UK forces at Kabul and that UK miltary were venturing out to do extraction operatiosn in kabul.

    I could not quite add all the rumours up and was wondering why such operations, assumed very quietly done, were being reported by people who you couldnt link up with the right channels. I also had no concept of the how.

    24 hours later, still trying to fully work it out. Given that the UK is reportedly working through intermediaries rather than direct with Taliban representatatives the facilitation of extraction may have been agreed somewhere because if it was a genuine covert operation without agreement, somebody has rather large balls. Not impossible because the British are more willing to do things like that with a light footprint than other countries. Even though this story looks to be mainstream, there is still gaps in that story.

    the pciture at KBL seems confused, the stats tell you the evacuation has moved into a higher gear, yet Im hearing other stories that there is still major problems both for US citizens and, as is now public, eligible Afghans to get to the airport safely. Perhaps an indicator will be what the private security firms who advise and provide support for Westerners wokring there start telling their customers to do.

    As of earlier today it seems some are telling their customers to try to make it to the airport. Others are saying stay put.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 723
    On topic

    Biden is a one term President.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,931

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    Because it sets highways standards for the whole of the UK and it sounds a bit more Unionist.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,931
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic,

    SELL

    .

    I'd rate his chance of standing in 2024 at no better than one-in-six, and he's hardly a shoo in to win. (Indeed, he's more likely to be the sacrificial lamb candidate if the election looks like a certain loss.)
    +1. Most screaming lay in the history of political betting.
    Nah, that was Mike Bloomberg in 2020 or Andrea Leadsome in 2019.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

    He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.

    Big point in his favour.
    The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?

    Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,931
    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    The last conflict I think we could have led in with the absence of the US was Kosovo under Blair. And that would have just been Kfor peacekeeping after the air campaign had been won, as we had nothing like the air or naval assets of the US.

    Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    Yokes said:

    On topic

    Biden is a one term President.

    Really, I'm reckoning he's more likely to be a 0.3 term President.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    As I said .. from dawn till zzzzs...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,931

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    England is a nation.

    Scans better.

    All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.
    So, you hate Transport Scotland then?

    https://www.transport.gov.scot/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157
    MrEd said:

    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

    Biden leaves Afghanistan on the brink of civil war. A charge he shares with Trump.

    Trump left the USA on the brink of civil war.
  • The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

    He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.

    Big point in his favour.
    The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?

    Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”

    You ask for a reason and then get angry when one is given to you.

    Were you asking in good faith?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157

    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    As I said .. from dawn till zzzzs...
    You would have appreciated Scott a dozen years ago, when he was beating up on Gordon Brown.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568
    Tonight's arslikhan award goes to..




  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    Evidence of a government falling apart?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    I'm not sure that even Corbyn can be blamed for the Afgani government falling apart.

    Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    Evidence of a government falling apart?
    So you haven't caught up with Raab's refusal to make a phonecall whilst on his holibobs then?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19
  • If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.

    So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,965
    Scott_xP said:

    We report tomorrow:
    * Foreign Office’s top civil servant has been on holiday all week + still is
    * Dominic Raab was on hol in Greece all last week as well as weekend
    * Eye witness has new claims on Raab’s beach time on Sunday

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/19/dominic-raab-defies-calls-resign-failure-phone-afghanistans/

    Thanks, Scott, do keep us posted on everyone's holidays.

    And maybe take one yourself ?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    Evidence of a government falling apart?
    So you haven't caught up with Raab's refusal to make a phonecall whilst on his holibobs then?
    It’s hardly ‘crisis, what crisis’ is it? I’m not entirely sure what the government is supposed to be doing right now. Things have moved out of any nominal control we might have had.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965
    Biden's rating has certainly plunged since the withdrawal from 53% to 46% now with Reuters/Ipsos (the same rating as Harris was on).
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-approval-drops-lowest-level-this-year-after-taliban-takeover-2021-08-17/

    A poll yesterday also had Trump beating Biden 43% to 37%
    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2021/election_regrets_most_wouldn_t_vote_to_reelect_biden
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

    He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.

    Big point in his favour.
    The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?

    Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”

    You ask for a reason and then get angry when one is given to you.

    Were you asking in good faith?
    Not particularly. And certainly not as angry as you got, nor indeed as personal, when I commented when Trump was the better choice over Biden.

    Before you comment on the splinter in somebody else’s eye, Young man, take a look at the plank in your own.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,189

    OT Why has Highways England rebranded as ‘National Highways’? :|

    England is a nation.

    Scans better.

    All these “X blah-land” names look so shite. A bit meh, and faintly American.
    So, you hate Transport Scotland then?

    https://www.transport.gov.scot/
    In Wales, it's Transport FOR Wales (and in London, Transport FOR London).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833

    If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.

    So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency

    Labour didnt cause the GFC, but there is much that can be said about Gordon browns use of PFI, and breaking his own spending rules. He truly believed he had ended boom and bust, but he was wrong...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,111
    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    I'm not sure that even Corbyn can be blamed for the Afgani government falling apart.

    Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.
    It's the butterfly effect of Corbyn. If he had never existed none of this would have happened... possibly.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486

    If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.

    So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency

    Hello @CorrectHorseBattery you are right of course, oppositions - which ever party - will try and tie the ruling Government to failure. It’s cynical, maybe sometimes justified but it’s politics.

    FWIW, I don’t think Johnston really could have done much to prevent this, it is clear Biden doesn’t listen to him. Nor do our military chiefs seem much better than the US ones.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    Evidence of a government falling apart?
    So you haven't caught up with Raab's refusal to make a phonecall whilst on his holibobs then?
    How is that the government falling apart?

    As far as I understand that phone call happened with someone else making it.

    What a non story. 😴
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Means naught without a Trafalgar.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 512
    I'm sorry but it's not particularly surprising that a lot of the Civil Service and some ministers go on holiday in August. I watched a documentary about the 2011 riots recently and it was the same then. If Parliament's not sitting and it's silly season then they can go on holiday.

    The real question that tweet doesn't ask is whether they came home early enough. In my view, no they didn't, although the level of difference that could have been made is up for debate.
  • Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19

    Boobies and other bits of nudity.

    They are ditching the live show element.

    But I suspect those will go in the future.

    I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.

    Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447

    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    As I said .. from dawn till zzzzs...
    You would have appreciated Scott a dozen years ago, when he was beating up on Gordon Brown.
    I remmember it well. .. but he was right about Brown who was bonkers. Scottnpaste has gone bonkers.. beware about spending your life on an anti brexit agenda...you could end up like Scottnpaste
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.

    Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.

    Which is in its way quite apt.

    https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.

    So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency

    Of course Brown caused the financial crisis. Slight difference there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    As an aside, good work Ms Lagarde.

    In the Doha surrender, the US promised to help the Taliban get economic assistance. (Come on @MrEd, defend that.)

    And the Taliban asked for $500m of transitional funding.

    And Ms Lagarde has said "non". Good for her.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447

    If Labour was in power right now the Tories would find a way to blame them for this disaster, just as Labour caused the GFC.

    So it is the Tories we must blame for Afghanistan, in the name of consistency

    Labour didnt cause the GFC, but there is much that can be said about Gordon browns use of PFI, and breaking his own spending rules. He truly believed he had ended boom and bust, but he was wrong...
    He listened to Balls who talked balls anout his neo endogenous growth theory.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568
    MattW said:

    On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.

    Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.

    Which is in its way quite apt.

    https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127

    I don’t think the Taliban were ever our ‘brave allies’..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965
    edited August 19
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
    46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.

    47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, good work Ms Lagarde.

    In the Doha surrender, the US promised to help the Taliban get economic assistance. (Come on @MrEd, defend that.)

    And the Taliban asked for $500m of transitional funding.

    And Ms Lagarde has said "non". Good for her.

    Not a hard decision, though.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 566

    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    The last conflict I think we could have led in with the absence of the US was Kosovo under Blair. And that would have just been Kfor peacekeeping after the air campaign had been won, as we had nothing like the air or naval assets of the US.

    Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.
    Didn't the UK and France take the lead in Libya with the US in a supporting role?

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, good work Ms Lagarde.

    In the Doha surrender, the US promised to help the Taliban get economic assistance. (Come on @MrEd, defend that.)

    And the Taliban asked for $500m of transitional funding.

    And Ms Lagarde has said "non". Good for her.

    Haha Robert, since you’ve mentioned it, I have to answer. I won’t defend it but I will hazard a guess at Trump’s strategy.

    I think with Doha Trump was taking a bet, and not a particularly scrupulous one at that, namely that if was re-elected, the Taliban would not dare to run over Afghanistan because they knew that Trump would not countenance the consequences and so would have blasted them to kingdom come. However, if he wasn’t re-elected, Biden would have to deal with the issue and would get all the brickbats for it.

    Do I condemn Trump for it? Yes with the caveat the States could not have stayed for ever but it was all about how the withdrawal was managed. It was a cynical ploy and it has screwed Afghanistan.


  • TazTaz Posts: 2,004
    MattW said:

    On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.

    Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.

    Which is in its way quite apt.

    https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127

    Depressingly the same old responses underneath about ‘looking after our own’ or ‘veterans’
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    edited August 19
    Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19

    Presumably cake, the non-sexually explicit nudity (!) the statement says they will continue to permit, and whatever they have managed to get out of it,
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19

    Can someone explain why Brexit and lorry drivers are behind this?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965
    edited August 19
    dodrade said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🇬🇧 🇺🇸 The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle is the first split in the Johnson-Biden relationship. London tried to convince DC to keep troops or maintain an ambassadorial presence, all to no avail.

    @FinancialTimes dive with @helenwarrell @KatrinaManson https://www.ft.com/content/fda20df5-29a6-4dd4-b514-21432e985adf

    The last conflict I think we could have led in with the absence of the US was Kosovo under Blair. And that would have just been Kfor peacekeeping after the air campaign had been won, as we had nothing like the air or naval assets of the US.

    Also, we had a much larger army in 1999 and it was within the European theatre, which is easier for us to do and sustain.
    Didn't the UK and France take the lead in Libya with the US in a supporting role?

    They did, Sarkozy and Cameron were more hawkish and led that conflict with Obama more reluctant and only joining in later.

    Apart from George W Bush most recent US Presidents have actually been less interested in getting involved in military action abroad than their British and French counterparts.

    Indeed of post war US Presidents only JFK and and George W Bush really were ideological and evangelical in terms of promoting liberal democracy and freedom abroad

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,004

    Tonight's arslikhan award goes to..




    Dear a God, that’s abysmal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427

    Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19

    Boobies and other bits of nudity.

    They are ditching the live show element.

    But I suspect those will go in the future.

    I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.

    Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.
    It will go crypto. The tyranny of the paypals and mastercards is about to end
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, good work Ms Lagarde.

    In the Doha surrender, the US promised to help the Taliban get economic assistance. (Come on @MrEd, defend that.)

    And the Taliban asked for $500m of transitional funding.

    And Ms Lagarde has said "non". Good for her.

    Not a hard decision, though.
    Actually, it's pretty normal for the IMF to step in post revolutions, civil wars, etc. Certainly both the WSJ and the FT were reporting yesterday that they expected the IMF to approve the emergency loans.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
    46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.

    47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
    Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.

    I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19

    Can someone explain why Brexit and lorry drivers are behind this?
    Someone's got to be buying all that Only Fans content.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,597
    Taz said:

    Tonight's arslikhan award goes to..




    Dear a God, that’s abysmal.
    Could be sarcasm?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,576
    So only 35% for Biden and Harris combined.

    That doesn't sound like the betting money is expecting things to go well for the Dems during the next three years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    The Government is falling apart, this is what happens when we put Jeremy Corbyn up for PM, let this be a lesson for us all!

    I'm not sure that even Corbyn can be blamed for the Afgani government falling apart.

    Some of the Silly Season stories this year are less silly and more tragic, but Biden made this decision and that's it really.
    It's the butterfly effect of Corbyn. If he had never existed none of this would have happened... possibly.
    As far as I know, three consecutive Presidents have been elected pledging to take the US back out of Afghanistan. In fact excluding Bush who was handling the Twin Towers aftermath, as far as I know no POTUS has been elected on a platform of having US troops in Afghanistan.

    So I don't think it's realistic to put Biden's decision on Corbyn. Even if not Biden, another POTUS of either party could have done the same thing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

    He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.

    Big point in his favour.
    The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?

    Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”

    No one is saying the Democrats are the saviour of democracy.

    But they aren't Trump.

    Obama, Bush and every other President in recent times handed over power peacefully.

    I have no doubt that if (or perhaps more like when...) Harris loses, then she will hand over peacefully.

    Respecting democracy when you lose is the single most important thing for any political system.

    I'd rather have a government that banned alcohol and made insurance companies illegal and taxed me at 99% but which could be evicted by voters, than one that taxed me ay 10%, but which refused to depart if the voters said "be gone".
    Which is, by the by, an eloquent argument for Brexit. No matter how shit the UK government, we can throw them out, and they meekly leave

    Not so the European Commission
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
    46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.

    47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
    Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.

    I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
    I don't think the 25h would be a curve ball, I think it would be putting a tired old man out of his misery.

    But I think Biden will choose retire on the grounds of ill health in 2022 rather than have the 25th invoked. Of course, Harris is hardly on the left of the Democratic Party, so I wouldn't expect to see AOC get her wish list were she to take over.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 648
    MattW said:

    On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.

    Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.

    Which is in its way quite apt.

    https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127

    Not necessarily particularly surprising. One suspects that the pull up the drawbridge and open borders tendencies are both very loud but very small. Truth is, most people and most MPs are quite willing to accept refugees; rather, the debate is about two things, namely who is being accepted and how many. Security vetted vulnerable families, rescued directly from Kabul in known and manageable numbers, are bound to get a better press than dinghy loads of randoms (predominantly single young men) from who knows where, washing up in an unregulated and uncontrolled tide upon the Kentish shore.

    One suspects that Mr Anderson has the former in mind and not the latter as the intended recipients for his constituents' necessarily finite reserves of generosity, and I imagine that most of them would concur.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles from October 1st Only Fans will be banning the posting of sexually-explicit conduct.

    Are you able to tell us what would be left on the site once they implement the ban?

    https://twitter.com/danprimack/status/1428420774449266691?s=19

    Boobies and other bits of nudity.

    They are ditching the live show element.

    But I suspect those will go in the future.

    I'm aware of the financial service providers who have put pressure on OnlyFans and I think they will crank up the pressure further.

    Although the nightmare scenario is if OnlyFans goes Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency and brings back the live shows.
    It will go crypto. The tyranny of the paypals and mastercards is about to end
    Yes.

    PBers. If I were asked about crypto, I would say one word "Monero". The darknet marketplaces are increasingly moving away from Bitcoin and towards Monero, and yet Monero's market cap is less than 1% of Bitcoin's.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965
    edited August 19
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
    46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.

    47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
    Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.

    I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
    Except Harris polls no better than Biden or generally worse.

    If Biden wants a replacement candidate for the top job in 2024 he would be better replacing Harris with someone like Buttigieg and making the latter Secretary of State for instance to be a serious contender for Harris.

    Buttigieg could then be Macron to his Hollande as they try to stop the return of Trump/Sarkozy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
    46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.

    47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
    Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.

    I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
    Except Harris polls no better than Biden or generally worse.

    If Biden wants a younger VP to be a replacement candidate for the top job in 2024 he would be better replacing Harris with someone like Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg could then be Macron to his Hollande as they try to stop the return of Trump/Sarkozy
    Sorry. What scenario are you imagining?

    (1) Biden won't be running in 2024.
    (2) Biden won't be replacing his Vice President.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805

    I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.

    Looks like they need to get to work in those poppyfields. That is 90% of Afghanistans exports.

    Incidentally, we had a notice today that there is some "heroin" on the streets cut with a very strong synthetic opiate. There has been a spate of fatal overdoses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    As a total aside, I think the liberal US press has come out of Afghanistan rather well. They've not been cheerleaders for the administration, but have been willing to call it out for its failures.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    His poll ratings remain reasonably OK, if you discount Rasmussen:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Most now seem to be in the 46%/47% approval rating though rather than the over 50% it was before
    There has been a very wide range for Biden’s ratings with Rasmussen and YouGov at the lower end and Morning Consult and Politico at the higher end.

    Probably what is better to look at is the trend line within each pollster. That is clearly declining.
    46/47% of course is danger territory for Biden/Harris.

    47% is closer to the 48% Kerry, Gore and Clinton got and well below the 51% Biden got in 2020 when he beat Trump or the over 50% Obama got in 2008 and 2012
    Personally, I think Biden is toast. I know many on here will say “you would say that” but I don’t know how he recovers from this, particularly the images, the ABC interview (how can you say one of Biden’s key strengths is compassion after that?) and the poor performance of his Sec of Defence.

    I think Harris knows that as well, plus a fair few other Democrat leaders. To many, particularly on the left, Biden has served his purpose and a President Harris would better suit their purposes when there is still time to push through an agenda. If you want a curveball, don’t be too surprised if you start to hear murmurings that the 25th should be invoked for Biden.
    Come on man, it’s been 5 days, maybe 6, since we left 38,000 Afghanis to be tortured to death by the Taliban, and you’re STILL banging on about it??
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    edited August 19
    Foxy said:

    I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.

    Looks like they need to get to work in those poppyfields. That is 90% of Afghanistans exports.

    Incidentally, we had a notice today that there is some "heroin" on the streets cut with a very strong synthetic opiate. There has been a spate of fatal overdoses.
    The reason that the Taliban have recently overrun Afghanistan is because the price of organic fair trade heroin has been hammered by the rise of synthetic opiates. The previous Afghan government was unable to bring prosperity, and that made the Taliban suddenly a whole bunch more attractive.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,004

    I wonder how much hard currency the Taliban need to settle debts they've incurred to get to their current position. Maybe rather a large amount.

    They can sell all the mineral assets to the Chinese who have the need and the cash.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,111
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    On unexpected stances, here is my local MP Lee Anderson speaking up for refugees from Afghanistan coming to the UK.

    Drawing an analogy with Eastern Europeans who sought refuge here after WW2 from Stalin's persecution.

    Which is in its way quite apt.

    https://www.facebook.com/LeeAndersoninAshfieldEastwood/posts/355718079560127

    Depressingly the same old responses underneath about ‘looking after our own’ or ‘veterans’
    I posted on our local forums in similar vein, a few people came out with the 'vets'/'looking after our own' line, and they were completely swamped by a 7-1 margin. Nobody's against looking after veterans too.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066

    I haven't read the comments below the line yet so may just be repeating what others have said. If so, my apologies.

    But I think there has been a fair bit of misdirection by those Biden supporters and apologists who make something of the fact it was Trump who agreed the withdrawal terms. It is not the withdrawal or the terms of the agreement with the Taliban that are the source of the immediate outrage (even if it was a pretty rubbish deal), it is the way that the withdrawal has been so badly mishandled by both Biden and Johnson.

    They have known for more than a year that this was coming. They have had time to plan for it and do some really basic things like identifying and evacuating all those who would be in immediate danger because of their work for the Western allies. They could have offered asylum to those women who they had persuaded to join the Afghan police and military. They certainly could have made sure that all those who worked directly with the western forces had the opportunity to leave the country and seek sanctuary in the West if they wanted to. They have done none of this. They have waited until the last minute and then panicked and there are tens of thousand of people who trusted the West and who worked with us to make our job easier and to make their country a better place to live who we have just thrown to the wolves.

    If you want an idea of the scale of just how badly Biden has fucked this up, just consider the Wall Street Journal yesterday said there are some 15,000 US citizens now trapped in Afghanistan with no means of escape. That is before you even start to consider the thousands of Afghans who we should be looking to get out to safety.

    The leadership of both the UK and the US have been criminally negligent over this.

    Yes, spot on.

    In fact it may even turn out that they've managed to screw up to the extent that there will be significant US and UK casualties in coming days, let alone Afghans who have worked with us.
  • Sorry did Phil just say Gordon Brown caused the Global Financial Crisis, on the sauce early again were we
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805

    So only 35% for Biden and Harris combined.

    That doesn't sound like the betting money is expecting things to go well for the Dems during the next three years.

    Or that they expect another Dem to emerge.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,486
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    still reckon he’s better than Trump :) ?

    And, if so, how?

    He hasn't tried to over throw a democratic election.

    Big point in his favour.
    The Democrats are somehow the saviours of Democracy? What a joke. Have you read HR1? What about the blatant attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court by launching a panel to see whether it needs to be expanded just so the Democrats have a permanent majority? Or strong arming independent Congressional staff to justify Reconciliation for Biden’s spending plans?

    Hey, but that’s all ok because “it’s not Trump”

    No one is saying the Democrats are the saviour of democracy.

    But they aren't Trump.

    Obama, Bush and every other President in recent times handed over power peacefully.

    I have no doubt that if (or perhaps more like when...) Harris loses, then she will hand over peacefully.

    Respecting democracy when you lose is the single most important thing for any political system.

    I'd rather have a government that banned alcohol and made insurance companies illegal and taxed me at 99% but which could be evicted by voters, than one that taxed me ay 10%, but which refused to depart if the voters said "be gone".
    I’ll be blunt, I don’t think the Democrats would necessarily peacefully handover the reins of power if they lost. Obama had to tell Hilary Clinton to accept she lost in 2016 and things have got more polarised since then.

    And logically why would the Democrats - if they believe their rhetoric about the GOP and Trump - believe it is right to hand over power to a party they say is anti-democratic? Surely better to come up with an excuse as to why they shouldn’t. They don’t have to worry about their own side accepting - the NYT, Washington Post etc will lap it up.

    If you think that is hyperbole, what about the latest DHS advice which infers that if you raise questions about the 2020 election, it’s akin to domestic terrorism? It’s not too far a step from this to using national security reasons to start saying the Republicans should not be allowed to contest elections:
This discussion has been closed.