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The latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll where I was part of the sample – politicalbetting.com

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  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Carnyx said:

    PS I remember seeing the exhibtion from Athens about however many millennia of democracy it was in Edinburgh some years back now. My favourite bit was the voting slip (pottery sherd) wwith the candidate's name scratched on it. Wonder if you get to see that sort of thing on yoiur trip?
    The pottery sherd (ostrakon) was usually used not to elect someone but to banish them. Ostracism was the process whereby each year the Athenian demos would deposit ostraka with the name of the person each citizen felt should be excluded from the city. Whoever got the most was banished for ten years. If they tried to return they could be executed, but they kept their property and were allowed to direct the management of it from abroad.

    I often wonder what would be the effect if any modern state reintroduced the idea.

    BTW if visiting Athens, the National Archaeology Museum is a must. The Antikythera Mechanism is unmissable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:


    ‘Calabrian Greek
    Greko
    Native to Italy
    Region Calabria
    Ethnicity Greeks
    Native speakers c. 2,000 (2010)[1]

    The Calabrian dialect of Greek, or Grecanico[2] is the variety of Italiot Greek used by the ethnic Griko people in Calabria, as opposed to the Italiot Greek dialect spoken in the Grecìa Salentina. Both are remnants of the Ancient and Byzantine Greek colonization of the region.’


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calabrian_Greek

    Some dispute as to its ancientry. No doubts that it is Greek. I went to Griko
    'Ndrangheta is indisputably Greek.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    Grim interviews from Afghanistan on C4 news. You have to wonder why the government leadership has been so gutless (I can’t speak to the qualities of the ground troops but I dare say their morale is affected by those at the top). Interesting that 2 of the interviewees specifically said they did not blame the US.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    Missed tests are a big red flag according to Conte (of Belco labs fame). Clean atheletes don't miss drugs tests according to him, certainly not more than one.
    Yup. The whining about it is always funny. It's not like they don't know the rules or the schedule of tests....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213

    The only reason I post the first comment is to check that the commenting system is working.
    That’s your story, Mike.
    About as convincing as being randomly picked for the poll which shows Lib Dem gains. :smile:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rpjs said:

    The pottery sherd (ostrakon) was usually used not to elect someone but to banish them. Ostracism was the process whereby each year the Athenian demos would deposit ostraka with the name of the person each citizen felt should be excluded from the city. Whoever got the most was banished for ten years. If they tried to return they could be executed, but they kept their property and were allowed to direct the management of it from abroad.

    I often wonder what would be the effect if any modern state reintroduced the idea.

    BTW if visiting Athens, the National Archaeology Museum is a must. The Antikythera Mechanism is unmissable.
    Whereas you voted by putting a pebble, psephos, in a jar. Hence psephology.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    rpjs said:

    The pottery sherd (ostrakon) was usually used not to elect someone but to banish them. Ostracism was the process whereby each year the Athenian demos would deposit ostraka with the name of the person each citizen felt should be excluded from the city. Whoever got the most was banished for ten years. If they tried to return they could be executed, but they kept their property and were allowed to direct the management of it from abroad.

    I often wonder what would be the effect if any modern state reintroduced the idea.

    BTW if visiting Athens, the National Archaeology Museum is a must. The Antikythera Mechanism is unmissable.
    Yes, of coiurse - brain eructation. Thanks!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    OK some PB top trumps. Who has heard the rarest living language spoken by a native?

    My go: I have heard this language spoken in a high valley in the Dolomites. Cimbrian German. It sounds like they are singing. Like Anglo-Saxon. Most odd

    400 native speakers

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimbrian_language
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313

    Grim interviews from Afghanistan on C4 news. You have to wonder why the government leadership has been so gutless (I can’t speak to the qualities of the ground troops but I dare say their morale is affected by those at the top). Interesting that 2 of the interviewees specifically said they did not blame the US.

    Biden is sort of right. The Afghans really should look after themselves. It's simply ridiculous that they don't want to do so, and, unfortunately, that's down to the West.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,737
    Leon said:

    OK some PB top trumps. Who has heard the rarest living language spoken by a native?

    My go: I have heard this language spoken in a high valley in the Dolomites. Cimbrian German. It sounds like they are singing. Like Anglo-Saxon. Most odd

    400 native speakers

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimbrian_language

    Has our PB native Cornish speaker spoken Cornish to himself?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited August 2021

    Grim interviews from Afghanistan on C4 news. You have to wonder why the government leadership has been so gutless (I can’t speak to the qualities of the ground troops but I dare say their morale is affected by those at the top). Interesting that 2 of the interviewees specifically said they did not blame the US.

    Afghanistan hasn’t had a ‘government’ since 1978. There have been various different factions competing for control with the aid, or not, of outside powers. The Soviets had their Red govenrment, and the Americans chose Karzai as the leader of a major tribe. But neither of them had any luck at state building. China from 1911 to 1934 would be the nearest parallel.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited August 2021
    It will go down as one of Trump's biggest mistakes, I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    @Leon

    Just as a matter of interest, what's the Ancient Greek word for smartphone?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Leon said:

    OK some PB top trumps. Who has heard the rarest living language spoken by a native?

    My go: I have heard this language spoken in a high valley in the Dolomites. Cimbrian German. It sounds like they are singing. Like Anglo-Saxon. Most odd

    400 native speakers

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimbrian_language

    Who was involved in the first ever electronic trade on the LIFFE exchange. Me! (Euromark futures on ATP)

    One possible incidence (there may have been up to 4 people involved).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    MattW said:

    Has our PB native Cornish speaker spoken Cornish to himself?
    Hah. i still don’t quite grasp that story. He sounds so sincere

    Amazing if true

    My Aussie daughter’s grandfather specialized in aboriginal culture for a while - made documentaries about them, and so on. I believe he has heard languages spoken by the last living native speaker. Quite hard, indeed impossible, to beat that

    The death of a language is a very sad thing. So much goes with it, jokes to memes to memories
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    We didn't have any choice but to follow. We don't have the military power to remain there without the US.
    We didn't have the military power to remain there with the US.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited August 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    'Ndrangheta is indisputably Greek.
    There is still Greek spoken is some villages way north of Calabria, if some of what my Italian friends have told me on occasion is anything to go by. Mussolini and even the Risorgimento may have pushed it way underground, in the service of the project of national identity and harmonising north and south.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    Omnium said:

    Biden is sort of right. The Afghans really should look after themselves. It's simply ridiculous that they don't want to do so, and, unfortunately, that's down to the West.

    Not any more. If China wants global supremacy, let China rule Afghanistan. They’ll probably do it quite well, albeit in the Roman style. Ruthlessly and violently. The Chinese have the cultural self confidence we have lost
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    rpjs said:

    The pottery sherd (ostrakon) was usually used not to elect someone but to banish them. Ostracism was the process whereby each year the Athenian demos would deposit ostraka with the name of the person each citizen felt should be excluded from the city. Whoever got the most was banished for ten years. If they tried to return they could be executed, but they kept their property and were allowed to direct the management of it from abroad.

    I often wonder what would be the effect if any modern state reintroduced the idea.

    BTW if visiting Athens, the National Archaeology Museum is a must. The Antikythera Mechanism is unmissable.
    Maybe we should have a similar process here on PB, with votes, and one poster getting sent to ConHome for a month.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Leon said:


    Not any more. If China wants global supremacy, let China rule Afghanistan. They’ll probably do it quite well, albeit in the Roman style. Ruthlessly and violently. The Chinese have the cultural self confidence we have lost
    I'd be quite happy to see the Chinese intervene in Afghanistan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Leon said:


    Not any more. If China wants global supremacy, let China rule Afghanistan. They’ll probably do it quite well, albeit in the Roman style. Ruthlessly and violently. The Chinese have the cultural self confidence we have lost
    You mean, like the Soviets did?

    Afghanistan is not Tibet or Xinjiang. Historically trying to subjugate it with violence tends to make matters worse, not better.
  • Q2. As a sometime British nationalist, are you a Unionist?
    No.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    Omnium said:

    I'd be quite happy to see the Chinese intervene in Afghanistan.
    Every other global empire has been unable to resist, I see no reason why China should be uniquely untempted. And not all have failed. I believe the Mongols were quite rigorous
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    rcs1000 said:

    Maybe we should have a similar process here on PB, with votes, and one poster getting sent to ConHome for a month.
    Were the Athenians allowed to nominate the same chap every 10 years? You'd need to decide on that for PB as well.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Leon said:

    Every other global empire has been unable to resist, I see no reason why China should be uniquely untempted. And not all have failed. I believe the Mongols were quite rigorous
    The idea that Afghanistan is some unconquerable bastion is ridiculous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Who says that? Nobody with half a brain thinks Team GB is 100% clean, however there is a world of difference between here and Russia or China or even the US.

    You get caught cheating and you are lottery funded, not only do you lose your funding forever, they chase you for all the money back and you will be a total outcast should you ever cone back from your ban.

    Remember with Dwayne Chambers they even fought legal action to have to select him, despite him getting qualifying times. And even when they lost the court case, it was very much you get no help, no assistant, we don't want anything to do with you.

    Comparison Tyson Gay, 3 times he has been busted for drugs, and the Americans don't appear to be bothered, as soon as he is off his ban, back to the forefront.

    The one big grey cloud in UK is the cycling.
    Yes, UK cycling seems to recruit from the asthma clinic...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Omnium said:

    The idea that Afghanistan is some unconquerable bastion is ridiculous.
    Why?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    ydoethur said:

    Why?
    Because it's obvious that given time and manpower you can choose the tactics for the territory.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Leon said:

    Every other global empire has been unable to resist, I see no reason why China should be uniquely untempted. And not all have failed. I believe the Mongols were quite rigorous
    Alexander, too. The policy was to kill everything that moved, and burn everything that did not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Omnium said:

    Because it's obvious that given time and manpower you can choose the tactics for the territory.
    Such as what?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    Carnyx said:



    I'm not so sure it was a porky. Danish/Icelandic has a fair bit in common with Scots, abd Cumbrians are just Scots who had the bad luck to be born after the border revisions. I went to a conference in Copnehagen and a Scots colleaguer and I went to have a look at the geological museum - we were able to get a sense of quite a few of the Danish labels eg. earthquake = jordskælv (cf Scots yird + skelp).

    A dear friend of mine from a Moray family was boarded out in the eastern Borders during the war years - Teviotdale or perhaps Kelso way. His academic career led him to South Africa and he discovered that if he relaxed and didn't try hard he could get a very good sense of the Boers in front of him discussing this rooinek in front of them. A tactically very useful accomplishment at times.

    Agreed - if you know English and German then Danish is pretty easy, and Danish and Icelandic have an overlap - I can understand a bit, because I know the former. I'm missing something in the story - why should it be odd to understand a language if you were based there?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Leon said:

    OK some PB top trumps. Who has heard the rarest living language spoken by a native?

    My go: I have heard this language spoken in a high valley in the Dolomites. Cimbrian German. It sounds like they are singing. Like Anglo-Saxon. Most odd

    400 native speakers

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimbrian_language

    We do have a native Cornish speaker...

    I stayed in New Caledonia with some Melanesians. There are 20 different mutually unintelligible languages on New Caledonia. A few thousand speakers of each.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    ydoethur said:

    You mean, like the Soviets did?

    Afghanistan is not Tibet or Xinjiang. Historically trying to subjugate it with violence tends to make matters worse, not better.
    There’s a whole Twitter debate on this. The myth that you can’t conquer Afghanistan. The answer, it seems, is to enter with a mood of total brutality. “If everyone in Afghanistan dies, so be it”. That works

    The Mongols did it
    .
    ‘Allied with the Uzbeks, Hazaras and other Turkic communities in the north Genghis Khan’s dominance over Afghanistan was long-lasting, allowing him for his future successful conquests in Central Anatolia against the Ottomans.[5]’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasions_of_Afghanistan

    Xi’s China seems like the kind of place that could muster that attitude
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    ydoethur said:

    Why?
    The Chinese would probably import population - which is one way to defeat the locals. Truth on the ground, as Arkan used to say....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    ydoethur said:

    Such as what?
    I'm not a military man. Wait until you know. Overwhelming force can't be a losing situation after all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    There is still Greek spoken is some villages way north of Calabria, if some of what my Italian friends have told me on occasion is anything to go by. Mussolini and even the Risorgimento may have pushed it way underground, in the service of the project of national identity and harmonising north and south.
    When the Danube frontier collapsed in the 7th century, many Greeks fled to Imperial territories in Southern Italy. When the Balkans were overrun by the Ottomans, likewise. So, their descendants are a big element of the population
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Leon said:

    There’s a whole Twitter debate on this. The myth that you can’t conquer Afghanistan. The answer, it seems, is to enter with a mood of total brutality. “If everyone in Afghanistan dies, so be it”. That works

    The Mongols did it
    .
    ‘Allied with the Uzbeks, Hazaras and other Turkic communities in the north Genghis Khan’s dominance over Afghanistan was long-lasting, allowing him for his future successful conquests in Central Anatolia against the Ottomans.[5]’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasions_of_Afghanistan

    Xi’s China seems like the kind of place that could muster that attitude
    Some of the Mongols’ most brutal massacres were in Afghanistan, Balkh, Merv, Herat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited August 2021
    Omnium said:

    I'm not a military man. Wait until you know. Overwhelming force can't be a losing situation after all.
    115,000 men was insufficient for the Soviets.

    390,000 including the Nato backed Afghan army was insufficient for NATO.

    Do you honestly think the Chinese could commit more than that and still hold down Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Tibet?

    Edit - sorry, my mistake, you hadn’t suggested the Chinese might try to occupy it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    Omnium said:

    I'm not a military man. Wait until you know. Overwhelming force can't be a losing situation after all.
    Overwhelming force worked on “unconquerable Imperial Japan in 1945”

    ‘We will nuke you from 40,000 feet until you are all dead and the entire nation is a wasteland’

    They surrendered after 2 bombs, and this was a nation that invented the suicide plane-bomb
  • UK announces around 600 troops are to be deployed to Afghanistan to assist British nationals to leave
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Despite the general good news on vaccinations and reduced deaths I feel pessimistic. Here in Wales I get little sense that the remaining restrictions are likely to be removed anytime soon. Indeed I would like to ask those in power what it would take for them to remove those restrictions. A local theatre venue was publicising re-opening in September but pointed out social distancing would be required and face masks would need to be worn at all times. Which made me think - can I really be bothered?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Omnium said:

    The idea that Afghanistan is some unconquerable bastion is ridiculous.
    Indeed, the USA conquered it in a week in 2001. It is holding onto it that is the problem.

    We haven't learnt from South Vietnam, which is why we are reliving the fall of Saigon.

    Corrupt puppet regimes funded by foreigners and enforced by foreign troops are inherently unstable. The locals will support any group of fanatics willing to boot them out. That is how the Viet Cong and Khymer Rouge won, ISIL too, at least for a while.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The Chinese would probably import population - which is one way to defeat the locals. Truth on the ground, as Arkan used to say....
    They have form in that for sure
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    ydoethur said:

    115,000 men was insufficient for the Soviets.

    390,000 including the Nato backed Afghan army was insufficient for NATO.

    Do you honestly think the Chinese could commit more than that and still hold down Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Tibet?
    Easily, but they'd not do so. They could easily play a very long game, and the Taliban would certainly lose.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2021
    I'd like to post the latest graphs of Leader Ratings, but the photos are coming up miniscule, whats all that about?


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Omnium said:

    I'm not a military man. Wait until you know. Overwhelming force can't be a losing situation after all.
    As we have seen there is no political will to try to subjugate a country far away. You would need hundreds of thousands of troops which no one is in the mood to commit.

    Plus they would be sent to a country that doesn't value life in the way that people in the West value life and that would have consequences for the political leaders of those troops to say nothing of the troops themselves.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Leon said:

    There’s a whole Twitter debate on this. The myth that you can’t conquer Afghanistan. The answer, it seems, is to enter with a mood of total brutality. “If everyone in Afghanistan dies, so be it”. That works

    The Mongols did it
    .
    ‘Allied with the Uzbeks, Hazaras and other Turkic communities in the north Genghis Khan’s dominance over Afghanistan was long-lasting, allowing him for his future successful conquests in Central Anatolia against the Ottomans.[5]’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasions_of_Afghanistan

    Xi’s China seems like the kind of place that could muster that attitude
    Any power that can summon overwhelming force and apply it with a sufficient degree of ruthlessness can effect a successful occupation. If your definition of success is to totally suppress the resistance of the local population, or to kill them.

    The Chinese could probably do that if they really wanted to. But is Afghanistan worth the effort to them, or to anyone else?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Omnium said:

    Easily, but they'd not do so. They could easily play a very long game, and the Taliban would certainly lose.
    The Americans and the Soviets thought the same.

    I’d just point out they were both wrong.
  • Foxy said:

    Indeed, the USA conquered it in a week in 2001. It is holding onto it that is the problem.

    We haven't learnt from South Vietnam, which is why we are reliving the fall of Saigon.

    Corrupt puppet regimes funded by foreigners and enforced by foreign troops are inherently unstable. The locals will support any group of fanatics willing to boot them out. That is how the Viet Cong and Khymer Rouge won, ISIL too, at least for a while.

    Corrupt regimes have existed for decades across the globe. They just need their own troops too, willing and able to do whatever it takes to enforce their power.

    The Taliban/Vietcong are/were more willing to do 'whatever it takes' than the regimes.

    Syria is a corrupt puppet regime funded now by the Russians and aided by the Russian military and since the leadership is prepared to gas its own people, and the Russians support it unquestioningly, they've "won" their conflict from what seemed an unwinnable position.
  • ydoethur said:

    The Americans and the Soviets thought the same.

    I’d just point out they were both wrong.
    The Chinese have a ruthlessness the Americans do not.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    ydoethur said:

    115,000 men was insufficient for the Soviets.

    390,000 including the Nato backed Afghan army was insufficient for NATO.

    Do you honestly think the Chinese could commit more than that and still hold down Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Tibet?

    Edit - sorry, my mistake, you hadn’t suggested the Chinese might try to occupy it.
    Indeed. They wouldn’t occupy, that’s a fool’s errand. They would wipe it out, or threaten to, after a couple of nukes dropped on Kabul and Herat

    The Afghans would meekly comply, as they did with the Mongols

    For the avoidance of doubt I am not saying this is a good, wise or advisable thing. It is hellish. And evil. But history shows it is the only way to subdue violently defiant territories like Afghanistan (or the Japan of 1945) - should you wish to subdue them. If the Chinese are sensible they will just pay off the warlords and accept the moral mess (as we should have done)

    A great and costly tragedy is now unfolding in Afghanistan
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    The Chinese have a ruthlessness the Americans do not.
    and the Soviets don’t?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292
    edited August 2021
    Foxy said:

    We do have a native Cornish speaker...

    I stayed in New Caledonia with some Melanesians. There are 20 different mutually unintelligible languages on New Caledonia. A few thousand speakers of each.
    Livonian... 40 speakers, 210 with some knowledge. Though its a cousin of Estonian and you can make some sense of it. Definitely a separate language and not an Estonian dialect though.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    ydoethur said:

    The Americans and the Soviets thought the same.

    I’d just point out they were both wrong.
    Potentially some millions of men - no real issues with supply lines, and no real care about casualties. China would breeze it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    isam said:

    I'd like to post the latest graphs of Leader Ratings, but the photos are coming up miniscule, whats all that about?


    It’s been doing that for a few days at least.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    edited August 2021

    Corrupt regimes have existed for decades across the globe. They just need their own troops too, willing and able to do whatever it takes to enforce their power.

    The Taliban/Vietcong are/were more willing to do 'whatever it takes' than the regimes.

    Syria is a corrupt puppet regime funded now by the Russians and aided by the Russian military and since the leadership is prepared to gas its own people, and the Russians support it unquestioningly, they've "won" their conflict from what seemed an unwinnable position.
    You missed out the key thing. Corrupt governments are ten a penny, but corrupt puppet regimes funded by foreigners and enforced by foreign troops are not.

    After all, if we had such a regime here, wouldn't you expect continued violent resistance? becoming more radical as time goes on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Leon said:

    Indeed. They wouldn’t occupy, that’s a fool’s errand. They would wipe it out, or threaten to, after a couple of nukes dropped on Kabul and Herat

    The Afghans would meekly comply, as they did with the Mongols

    For the avoidance of doubt I am not saying this is a good, wise or advisable thing. It is hellish. And evil. But history shows it is the only way to subdue violently defiant territories like Afghanistan (or the Japan of 1945) - should you wish to subdue them. If the Chinese are sensible they will just pay off the warlords and accept the moral mess (as we should have done)

    A great and costly tragedy is now unfolding in Afghanistan
    Dropping a nuke 300 miles from a nuclear power would obviously not be problematic.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:


    ‘Calabrian Greek
    Greko
    Native to Italy
    Region Calabria
    Ethnicity Greeks
    Native speakers c. 2,000 (2010)[1]

    The Calabrian dialect of Greek, or Grecanico[2] is the variety of Italiot Greek used by the ethnic Griko people in Calabria, as opposed to the Italiot Greek dialect spoken in the Grecìa Salentina. Both are remnants of the Ancient and Byzantine Greek colonization of the region.’


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calabrian_Greek

    Some dispute as to its ancientry. No doubts that it is Greek. I went to Griko
    Like I said, be very wary of Wikipedia.

    2,000 native speakers my arse. And the chances of you actually overhearing any are zilch.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Leon said:

    Indeed. They wouldn’t occupy, that’s a fool’s errand. They would wipe it out, or threaten to, after a couple of nukes dropped on Kabul and Herat

    The Afghans would meekly comply, as they did with the Mongols

    For the avoidance of doubt I am not saying this is a good, wise or advisable thing. It is hellish. And evil. But history shows it is the only way to subdue violently defiant territories like Afghanistan (or the Japan of 1945) - should you wish to subdue them. If the Chinese are sensible they will just pay off the warlords and accept the moral mess (as we should have done)

    A great and costly tragedy is now unfolding in Afghanistan
    On the contrary, nuking Kabul and Herat would be a treat for the Taliban. Their strength is in the rural areas, their enemies in the decadent cities. You would be doing them a favour.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    ydoethur said:

    Dropping a nuke 300 miles from a nuclear power would obviously not be problematic.
    Why drop a nuke when not doing so can be a training exercise for 100k men.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    ydoethur said:

    and the Soviets don’t?
    No, the Soviets did not have the ruthlessness of Xi’s China. Also, Xi’s China is just cleverer: they would never invade and occupy, it is pointless. Just encircle it with allies - Pakistan, Iran, Russia, starve it into submission, drop a few bombs, kill 30,000 people in a couple of days, job done. A subdued Afghanistan. Meanwhile offer the carrot of endless Chinese investment in valuable mines

    If you want to be an empire, moral self doubt is a fatal flaw. The British resisted it for centuries, but succumbed in the 20th century. America now follows. Probably China will have some Afghan Lives Matter movement in about 50 years, and they too will quail

    But China’s grievous national memories of humiliation and famine are too recent for that to be a problem, at the moment. Especially for such an ancient nation which has long felt itself the centre of the world

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Who says that? Nobody with half a brain thinks Team GB is 100% clean, however there is a world of difference between here and Russia or China or even the US.

    You get caught cheating and you are lottery funded, not only do you lose your funding forever, they chase you for all the money back and you will be a total outcast should you ever cone back from your ban.

    Remember with Dwayne Chambers they even fought legal action to have to select him, despite him getting qualifying times. And even when they lost the court case, it was very much you get no help, no assistant, we don't want anything to do with you.

    Comparison Tyson Gay, 3 times he has been busted for drugs, and the Americans don't appear to be bothered, as soon as he is off his ban, back to the forefront.

    The one big grey cloud in UK is the cycling.
    A very, very, very grey cloud.

    Vroom, Vroom. Ahem.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Leon said:

    Indeed. They wouldn’t occupy, that’s a fool’s errand. They would wipe it out, or threaten to, after a couple of nukes dropped on Kabul and Herat

    The Afghans would meekly comply, as they did with the Mongols

    For the avoidance of doubt I am not saying this is a good, wise or advisable thing. It is hellish. And evil. But history shows it is the only way to subdue violently defiant territories like Afghanistan (or the Japan of 1945) - should you wish to subdue them. If the Chinese are sensible they will just pay off the warlords and accept the moral mess (as we should have done)

    A great and costly tragedy is now unfolding in Afghanistan
    Nuking the cities would not really bother the Taliban. They would just retreat into the countryside where their power base is. You might even be doing them a favour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912

    Like I said, be very wary of Wikipedia.

    2,000 native speakers my arse. And the chances of you actually overhearing any are zilch.
    Look, I know you’re a twat. That’s accepted. But I went there. Griko. It’s a place in the hills of southern italy. They speak Greek there. And they do it proudly. I heard grannys talking it to kids. This is not disputed

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griko_people
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021
    Lol, what an over in the Hundred....

    200.on the cards.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    I'm not so sure it was a porky. Danish/Icelandic has a fair bit in common with Scots, abd Cumbrians are just Scots who had the bad luck to be born after the border revisions. I went to a conference in Copnehagen and a Scots colleaguer and I went to have a look at the geological museum - we were able to get a sense of quite a few of the Danish labels eg. earthquake = jordskælv (cf Scots yird + skelp).

    A dear friend of mine from a Moray family was boarded out in the eastern Borders during the war years - Teviotdale or perhaps Kelso way. His academic career led him to South Africa and he discovered that if he relaxed and didn't try hard he could get a very good sense of the Boers in front of him discussing this rooinek in front of them. A tactically very useful accomplishment at times.
    It was unmitigated nonsense.

    As a bilingual English-Swedish speaker, with a good understanding of Scots, Danish and Norwegian, and a smattering of Gaelic and Icelandic, I can say without a scintilla of doubt that it was utterly impossible for a 20th century Cumbrian to understand 20th century Icelandic, without a considerable amount of study. Go back 10 centuries and I’m sure it was another kettle of fish.

    Sharing cognates does not mutual intelligibility make. Swedish is jam-packed full of cognates with Scots. That does not make the languages mutually intelligible.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    Foxy said:

    On the contrary, nuking Kabul and Herat would be a treat for the Taliban. Their strength is in the rural areas, their enemies in the decadent cities. You would be doing them a favour.
    The Taliban might be religiously primitive. But they do not desire to be cavemen. They want houses, schools, mosques, hospitals. Islam is a civilisation of the city, the madrasa, the minaret, not the fields and rocks. Level everything with superpower bombing and you defeat them.

    I’m not suggesting this as a desirable moral policy, it is just a fact. Probably a universal human fact.

    Also Afghanistan is not much of a prize. There is little to be won there. All you need is suitable Genghis Khan style ruthlessness to lead you through it to greater geopolitical prizes, should you so desire
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153

    Lol, what an over in the Hundred....

    200.on the cards.

    "Over"? That word is banned in the Hundred!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:


    Not any more. If China wants global supremacy, let China rule Afghanistan. They’ll probably do it quite well, albeit in the Roman style. Ruthlessly and violently. The Chinese have the cultural self confidence we have lost
    Famously the Russian occupation was known for its genteel approach and that was the reason for its failure.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Biden decision was some of the worse American foreign policy… I can only imagine the outcry if that were Trumps decision

    (Though the fact we followed as usual says it all)
    TBF on this occasion it was the right thing to do. We’d have been absolutely mullered if we stayed when the Americans left
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Leon said:

    No, the Soviets did not have the ruthlessness of Xi’s China. Also, Xi’s China is just cleverer: they would never invade and occupy, it is pointless. Just encircle it with allies - Pakistan, Iran, Russia, starve it into submission, drop a few bombs, kill 30,000 people in a couple of days, job done. A subdued Afghanistan. Meanwhile offer the carrot of endless Chinese investment in valuable mines

    If you want to be an empire, moral self doubt is a fatal flaw. The British resisted it for centuries, but succumbed in the 20th century. America now follows. Probably China will have some Afghan Lives Matter movement in about 50 years, and they too will quail

    But China’s grievous national memories of humiliation and famine are too recent for that to be a problem, at the moment. Especially for such an ancient nation which has long felt itself the centre of the world

    At one time the Chinese did control much of Central Asia on the Silk Road.

    I wonder if those so keen on a Chinese extermination of the Afghans are the same as those horrified at the Uighurs genocide, being done for the ostensible reason of Islamism?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    Has anyone any news of what is happening in Plymouth at the moment..?
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158
    Helicopter skids time approaches in Saigon Kabul. The US seem to have asked Turkey to help hold the airport while they evacuate. What a trouser-clip moment. I wonder how that will play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/12/us-others-laying-groundwork-afghanistan-embassy-evacuations-kabul-taliban-

    Practically nobody has mentioned the Vietnam disaster since the day George Bush declared in response to 911 that the US would invade Afghanistan, to the sound of loud cheering from jihadists everywhere. Can we have the term "Vietnam Syndrome" back now, or will we get "Afghan Syndrome"?

    Probably we won't get either term, and even hints of a comparison with Vietnam wlll stay verboten. Nobody will write for example that the effort to "save Afghanistan from the Afghans" has failed. In the 1960s the USG couldn't control its own soldiers, and on top of that its propaganda in its home market was akin to p*ssing in the wind. Thus its efforts blew up in its face on a number of occasions - some of which are still referred to, and not just by students of photojournalism. Now? There's no conscription, there's embedding, and most of the US population couldn't GAF because they're too busy picking their smartphones. Nor could the political class GAF, when it really comes down to it. So I doubt any "syndrome" will get a look-in. The evacuation marks a shift in the global strategic balance nonetheless.




  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021
    Thread on Afghanistan...

    HUNDREDS of Paras will swoop into Kabul to evacuate the British Embassy and up to 4,000 Brits, contractors and staff – amid fears the city will fall to the Taliban.

    Only a skeleton staff including ambassador Sir Laurie Bristow will stay in the besieged Afghan capital.

    https://twitter.com/jeromestarkey/status/1425890912639590402?s=19
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313

    Has anyone any news of what is happening in Plymouth at the moment..?

    None - what have you heard?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    Charles said:

    TBF on this occasion it was the right thing to do. We’d have been absolutely mullered if we stayed when the Americans left
    A fair point - but still a sad situation after so many years
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited August 2021

    Like I said, be very wary of Wikipedia.

    2,000 native speakers my arse. And the chances of you actually overhearing any are zilch.
    I think Leon may be right, actually. I've seen a couple of programmes about these Griko-speakers in Calabria on Greek TV while in Greece. They have their own festivals, costumes and rituals, and contacts with the Greek government in the bargain, judging by who was coming to appear on screen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    edited August 2021

    Grim interviews from Afghanistan on C4 news. You have to wonder why the government leadership has been so gutless (I can’t speak to the qualities of the ground troops but I dare say their morale is affected by those at the top). Interesting that 2 of the interviewees specifically said they did not blame the US.

    Why would it be the fault of other countries if the Afghans can't seem to run their own country?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    Thread on Afghanistan...

    HUNDREDS of Paras will swoop into Kabul to evacuate the British Embassy and up to 4,000 Brits, contractors and staff – amid fears the city will fall to the Taliban.

    Only a skeleton staff including ambassador Sir Laurie Bristow will stay in the besieged Afghan capital.

    https://twitter.com/jeromestarkey/status/1425890912639590402?s=19

    I'm not usually averse to leaks, but really this sort of thing should not be announced in advance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021
    Vaccine passports are “almost inevitable” for travel, probably for mass events and possibly for optional venues such as nightclubs, as long as they are accompanied by testing. Starmer had previously suggested they were against “British instinct”. But he said there was a “world of difference between the rules in play for a nightclub, and [essential services] people need to access”, such as doctors’ surgeries, mental health services or food shops, which should not be subject to vaccine passports.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/12/keir-starmer-forcing-people-return-offices-wrongheaded-work-from-home
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    Omnium said:

    None - what have you heard?
    A major incident of some kind..reports sound quite grim
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    I think Leon may be right, actually. I've seen a couple of programmes about these Griko-speakers on Greek TV while in Greece. They have their own festivals, costumes and rituals, and contacts with the Greek government, judging by who was coming on screen.
    Wikipedia itself is often bollocks but it is a source of citations and if you follow the cited link for Leon’s claim it does seem legit.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021

    Has anyone any news of what is happening in Plymouth at the moment..?

    Seems somebody has been going around shooting people. Some suggestion it is family dispute.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    Thread on Afghanistan...

    HUNDREDS of Paras will swoop into Kabul to evacuate the British Embassy and up to 4,000 Brits, contractors and staff – amid fears the city will fall to the Taliban.

    Only a skeleton staff including ambassador Sir Laurie Bristow will stay in the besieged Afghan capital.

    https://twitter.com/jeromestarkey/status/1425890912639590402?s=19

    Shameful and this will define the Biden-Harris administration now, whatever else it does this will be the greatest US humiliation since Vietnam.

    We are not much better either as we also prepare to abandon our Embassy, however we are not big enough alone to stay in Afghanistan and maintain security and keep out the Taliban and terrorists without US support
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021

    I'm not usually averse to leaks, but really this sort of thing should not be announced in advance.
    I am not sure it is a leak, the Guardian, the BBC etc have basically the same story.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Shameful and this will define the Biden-Harris administration now, whatever else it does this will be the greatest US humiliation since Vietnam.

    We are not much better either as we also prepare to abandon our Embassy, however we are not big enough alone to stay in Afghanistan and maintain security and keep out the Taliban and terrorists without US support
    It should never be a Carter-like imprint on Biden. It was purely Trump's modish populist impulse to begin the plan to withdraw, which Biden has simply completed.
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158

    A fair point - but still a sad situation after so many years
    The British decision to follow the US decision to leave was sensible. The "all" that it "says" is this: "we're not completely insane and desirous of taking an even worse thrashing than the one we already got, just to prove, er, well nothing really". If you want an instance of Britain following the US that it's far better to deplore, look at the decision to participate in the invasion of Afghanistan in the first place.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    I think Leon may be right, actually. I've seen a couple of programmes about these Griko-speakers on Greek TV while in Greece. They have their own festivals, costumes and rituals, and contacts with the Greek government, judging by who was coming on screen.
    A few years ago I read an interesting book on the making of Modern Greece and Turkey. The problem was that defining who was which became quite a problem. In the end it was defined on religion. I expect that they are not such distinct communities any more, but for decades there were villages of Turkish speaking "Greeks" from Anatolia in Greek Macedonian resettlement, and Greek speaking ethnic Greek, but Muslim, communities in what is now Turkey.

    At the boundary, ethnicity is very fluid, take our PM for example. Excessive flag waving patriotism is a feature despite his Turkish ancestry, birth in the USA and being brought up in Belgium.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Omnium said:

    Because it's obvious that given time and manpower you can choose the tactics for the territory.
    US and British forces have been deployed continuously in Afghanistan for 20 years. That’s a lot of time and manpower, yet they have failed dismally
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    Some excrement icing on the cake of shit.

    https://twitter.com/mikehudema/status/1425897457943203841?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Foxy said:

    Indeed, the USA conquered it in a week in 2001. It is holding onto it that is the problem.

    We haven't learnt from South Vietnam, which is why we are reliving the fall of Saigon.

    Corrupt puppet regimes funded by foreigners and enforced by foreign troops are inherently unstable. The locals will support any group of fanatics willing to boot them out. That is how the Viet Cong and Khymer Rouge won, ISIL too, at least for a while.

    Better a puppet regime (elected too remember) we support militarily and financially for decades if not centuries if needed than a Taliban led regime becoming once again a haven for terrorist attacks on major western cities and further 9/11s.

    John McCain wanted a permanent US military presence in Afghanistan, events will soon show he was right
    https://www.npr.org/2015/10/07/446499466/sen-mccain-expects-a-permanent-u-s-presence-in-afghanistan.

    The Russians with Assad and neighbouring client states like Belarus and the Chinese too increasingly support puppet states when needed, so sometimes must we
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Why would it be the fault of other countries if the Afghans can't seem to run their own country?
    https://twitter.com/mattduss/status/1425888313609760769?s=19
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158

    Thread on Afghanistan...

    HUNDREDS of Paras will swoop into Kabul to evacuate the British Embassy and up to 4,000 Brits, contractors and staff – amid fears the city will fall to the Taliban.

    Only a skeleton staff including ambassador Sir Laurie Bristow will stay in the besieged Afghan capital.

    https://twitter.com/jeromestarkey/status/1425890912639590402?s=19

    The only purpose of him or any other staff staying is to ensure a successful evacuation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited August 2021
    New polling analysis with @mattholehouse at the @TheEconomist shows that owning a car is far more predictive of voting behavior than social class.

    https://t.co/3MhRgWELdB https://t.co/Ijje6NqFBu

    Although i don't agree with the premise, i think its more to do with big urban centres less likely to own a car, especially if poorer. However, reminder, how petrol prices and expensive move away from petrol cars could really piss off Tory voting block.

    Petrol prices have really risen during the pandemic. Certainly no room for Sunak to whack a load of extra tax on the motorist if he wants.to.remain popular with Tory voters.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hugely interesting USA Census results.

    Big falls in rural areas and rises in City populations may make the Redistricting process less damaging to Dems than expected.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,292
    Andy_JS said:

    Why would it be the fault of other countries if the Afghans can't seem to run their own country?
    The parallels with South Vietnam in the spring of 1975 seem quite compelling.

    The Ghani government, rather like that of Nguyen van Thieu, has been shown to be a house of cards without substantial foreign military support.

    Ghani, like Karzai before him, seems incapable of persuading more than a small number his regime is worth fighting for and dying for. The Taliban, for whatever reason, don't seem to have those issues and although no match for the technology of air power are seemingly more than capable when it comes to the awful minutiae of street fighting within towns and cities.

    The argument "he's a bastard but he's OUR bastard" is all we have - it's the same argument used in the Cold War to back some appalling regimes on the simple premise they were anti-communist.

    I imagine Ghani and those close to him will find exile and solace somewhere as Afghanistan plunges seemingly into darkness. The contrast between the negotiator in Doha and the commander in Helmand was stark - the excesses and barbarities of Islamic orthodox theocracy will be vested once more on the people of Kabul, Kandahar and Kunduz.

    What then? Will any kind of containment work or will Iran and Pakistan covertly support the new Government? Will China do business with the new rulers? The reality of 21st century realpolitik suggests the answer to both questions is yes.

    Yet what else could we or should we have done? Would capitalism work or is corruption too ingrained, too endemic, to encourage both actual liberalisation and the desire to fight for that liberalisation or does it come down to the simple truth the West is a ready market for the drugs so easily and readily sourced from Afghanistan?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292

    Perhaps the only difference is that multiple modern forms of Latin emerged, whereas there is only one modern Greek.
    er. sorry to disappoint you, there is both a formal and a colloquial (demotic) modern Greek.

    Also I speak Italian, but Spanish has a Lot of weird Arabic stuff which I do not get, so I wonder how accurate your comprehension is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    YoungTurk said:

    The British decision to follow the US decision to leave was sensible. The "all" that it "says" is this: "we're not completely insane and desirous of taking an even worse thrashing than the one we already got, just to prove, er, well nothing really". If you want an instance of Britain following the US that it's far better to deplore, look at the decision to participate in the invasion of Afghanistan in the first place.
    67 UK citizens died on 9/11 as well as 2,605 US citizens in an attack planned by Bin Laden in Afghanistan
  • Foxy said:

    At one time the Chinese did control much of Central Asia on the Silk Road.

    I wonder if those so keen on a Chinese extermination of the Afghans are the same as those horrified at the Uighurs genocide, being done for the ostensible reason of Islamism?
    I don't think anyone is keen on it are they?

    I think it's a horrific and scary prospect that could happen, if they chose to proceed with it.

    Just because it can happen, doesn't mean it should. Let alone mean if it does, it won't be horrific.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,559
    HYUFD said:

    Shameful and this will define the Biden-Harris administration now, whatever else it does this will be the greatest US humiliation since Vietnam.

    We are not much better either as we also prepare to abandon our Embassy, however we are not big enough alone to stay in Afghanistan and maintain security and keep out the Taliban and terrorists without US support
    So when are the Essex volunteers being deployed?
This discussion has been closed.