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Kamala Harris declining sharply in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 4 in General
imageKamala Harris declining sharply in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

Following on from our discussion yesterday on Joe Biden the chart above shows how punters are increasingly negative about Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the next President at WH2024. This follows declining poll ratings for the VP and a series of reports suggesting that all is not well in her office.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,979
    test
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856
    Second.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    This is a hard market, and my inclination is to steer clear. It is a bit like the next Prime Minister market in that it depends when and how the vacancy arises.

    If Biden runs again in 2024, then Harris cannot be running against him. If Biden steps down early, then Harris will already be the sitting President. So the price of any Democrat other than Biden or Harris must factor in the probability that Biden decides not to seek a second term but is not so debilitated that he is not forced into early retirement. That's a fairly narrow window. The value might still lie with Biden himself, dutched with Harris.

    I'd be more inclined to look for an outsider on the Republican side.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,943
    mwadams said:

    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?

    I think it’s more that Biden has given her a bunch of really difficult stuff to do (eg solve immigration across the Mexican border). He’s basically stitched her up
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    In the last couple of minutes, a Betfair punter has taken all the 55s (which was only about a tenner) against Pete Buttigieg.

    As others said on the last couple of threads, Buttigieg will have a succession of infrastructure successes (touch wood) to report to the American people.

    But is his name a problem? It is hard to spell and not obvious how to pronounce Buttigieg. Will this mean people fall back to using "Mayor Pete" and does that undersell or even undermine his claim to be President Pete?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,736
    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,736

    In the last couple of minutes, a Betfair punter has taken all the 55s (which was only about a tenner) against Pete Buttigieg.

    As others said on the last couple of threads, Buttigieg will have a succession of infrastructure successes (touch wood) to report to the American people.

    But is his name a problem? It is hard to spell and not obvious how to pronounce Buttigieg. Will this mean people fall back to using "Mayor Pete" and does that undersell or even undermine his claim to be President Pete?

    Father of Chickens is so much easier to remember, too.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    Charles said:

    mwadams said:

    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?

    I think it’s more that Biden has given her a bunch of really difficult stuff to do (eg solve immigration across the Mexican border). He’s basically stitched her up
    That is also true - but is this not the "wasp cake" strategy? She's there to soak up all the heat on issues for which Biden's persona and voting record offer no natural protection.

    There's a good piece in the FT on the Biden side of this equation.

    Why Joe Biden is such an elusive target for his critics - https://on.ft.com/3yoINFk
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    edited August 4
    Sky Brown is up soon. Just a reminder that SPotY has a separate category for Young SPotY so I'd not back Sky for the main award. Fingers crossed.

    ETA skateboarding is like women's gymnastics used to be – half the contestants are too young to vote.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    Why does the skateboarding have an arena commentator? Is there anyone there who does not know what is going on? Presumably everyone is connected with one of the teams and anyone else speaks Japanese.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,630
    @Tim
    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    I’m assuming “the plague” means CV19.

    Which is unsurprising, given that 200 mammalian species have been observed to be susceptible (as carriers, at least).

    It also complicates the issue of finding - if it exists - the direct host species.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760

    Sky Brown is up soon. Just a reminder that SPotY has a separate category for Young SPotY so I'd not back Sky for the main award. Fingers crossed.

    ETA skateboarding is like women's gymnastics used to be – half the contestants are too young to vote.

    Jinxed. Bronze. Fell off twice. Gold and silver to Japan.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    FT front page.
    UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report

    Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf

    On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.

    What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.

    What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,630
    On topic: like many, I’m not a massive Harris fan, and think Buttigieg far superior.

    But… don’t ignore the massive advantages of the incumbent VP. Should Biden find himself indisposed, she is President. And even if he doesn’t, she is massive favorite to succeed.

    Add in the Republicans potentially picking Trump as nominee, and you have the perfect storm for a very poor candidate to end up in the Oval Office.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    Quincel said:

    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!

    Not even the youngest on the podium. Silver medallist Kokona Hiraki is only 12.

    Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: like many, I’m not a massive Harris fan, and think Buttigieg far superior.

    But… don’t ignore the massive advantages of the incumbent VP. Should Biden find himself indisposed, she is President. And even if he doesn’t, she is massive favorite to succeed.

    Add in the Republicans potentially picking Trump as nominee, and you have the perfect storm for a very poor candidate to end up in the Oval Office.

    I mostly agree with this, though there's a chance Biden would not endorse in a primary if he stood down or wasn't President which would make her position much more surmountable.

    I'd be shocked if he ran again and replaced her though. These rumours float around constantly but never pan out, in part because of the danger that a disgrunted ex-VP could pose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: like many, I’m not a massive Harris fan, and think Buttigieg far superior.

    But… don’t ignore the massive advantages of the incumbent VP. Should Biden find himself indisposed, she is President. And even if he doesn’t, she is massive favorite to succeed.

    Add in the Republicans potentially picking Trump as nominee, and you have the perfect storm for a very poor candidate to end up in the Oval Office.

    Wait. I've seen this movie. The deep state steals the election and there's a riot in Congress.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: like many, I’m not a massive Harris fan, and think Buttigieg far superior.

    But… don’t ignore the massive advantages of the incumbent VP. Should Biden find himself indisposed, she is President. And even if he doesn’t, she is massive favorite to succeed.

    Add in the Republicans potentially picking Trump as nominee, and you have the perfect storm for a very poor candidate to end up in the Oval Office.

    I mostly agree with this, though there's a chance Biden would not endorse in a primary if he stood down or wasn't President which would make her position much more surmountable.

    I'd be shocked if he ran again and replaced her though. These rumours float around constantly but never pan out, in part because of the danger that a disgrunted ex-VP could pose.
    Someone suggested on a previous thread that a Harris/Buttigieg ticket is likely if Biden does call it a day.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908
    Report: JCVI set to recommend Covid vaccination for all 16 and 17 year olds.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58080232
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    edited August 4

    FT front page.
    UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report

    Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf

    On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.

    What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.

    What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.


    The IFG is a pretty useless organisation that Laurence Fox look objective and intelligent, and is just as ignorant of educational matters as the DfE itself. Since it makes a very basic error of fact in the first paragraph* I am not optimistic about the quality of the report.

    Probably best to ignore it. We will start getting reports from the actual experts - teachers - in the next few months and those will be the ones to pay attention to.

    Incidentally the FT is another paper where quality is dropping off a cliff. Five years ago it was the one paper that still had top quality journalism. Now it can’t even get basic statistics right (it’s constantly shrieking that Oakervee said HS2 will cost ‘not less than £106 billion,’ which is a lie so transparent even Archer would blush at it).

    *Gavin Williamson announced the closure of schools in the House of Commons. The press conference was where Johnson announced the cancellation of exams.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    ydoethur said:

    FT front page.
    UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report

    Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf

    On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.

    What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.

    What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.


    The IFG is a pretty useless organisation that Laurence Fox look objective and intelligent, and is just as ignorant of educational matters as the DfE itself. Since it makes a very basic error of fact in the first paragraph* I am not optimistic about the quality of the report.

    Probably best to ignore it. We will start getting reports from the actual experts - teachers - in the next few months and those will be the ones to pay attention to.

    Incidentally the FT is another paper where quality is dropping off a cliff. Five years ago it was the one paper that still had top quality journalism. Now it can’t even get basic statistics right (it’s constantly shrieking that Oakervee said HS2 will cost ‘not less than £106 billion,’ which is a lie so transparent even Archer would blush at it).

    *Gavin Williamson announced the closure of schools in the House of Commons. The press conference was where Johnson announced the cancellation of exams.
    The announcements were intended to be simultaneous. Here is what Boris said:-
    So I can announce today and Gavin Williamson making statement now in House of Commons that after schools shut their gates from Friday afternoon
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-18-march-2020
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248

    ydoethur said:

    FT front page.
    UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report

    Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf

    On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.

    What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.

    What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.


    The IFG is a pretty useless organisation that Laurence Fox look objective and intelligent, and is just as ignorant of educational matters as the DfE itself. Since it makes a very basic error of fact in the first paragraph* I am not optimistic about the quality of the report.

    Probably best to ignore it. We will start getting reports from the actual experts - teachers - in the next few months and those will be the ones to pay attention to.

    Incidentally the FT is another paper where quality is dropping off a cliff. Five years ago it was the one paper that still had top quality journalism. Now it can’t even get basic statistics right (it’s constantly shrieking that Oakervee said HS2 will cost ‘not less than £106 billion,’ which is a lie so transparent even Archer would blush at it).

    *Gavin Williamson announced the closure of schools in the House of Commons. The press conference was where Johnson announced the cancellation of exams.
    The announcements were intended to be simultaneous. Here is what Boris said:-
    So I can announce today and Gavin Williamson making statement now in House of Commons that after schools shut their gates from Friday afternoon
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-18-march-2020
    Well, they weren’t.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586
    You wonder if they have measured the 400m for the hurdles correctly…
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586

    Quincel said:

    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!

    Not even the youngest on the podium. Silver medallist Kokona Hiraki is only 12.

    Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
    It does seem wrong. I do hope chimney-sweeping isn’t coming back as an Olympic event.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!

    Not even the youngest on the podium. Silver medallist Kokona Hiraki is only 12.

    Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
    It does seem wrong. I do hope chimney-sweeping isn’t coming back as an Olympic event.
    Chimney sweeping as a sport went to pot long ago.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382
    IanB2 said:

    You wonder if they have measured the 400m for the hurdles correctly…

    If they haven't stride patterns would be wrong and I suspect times slower as athletes adapt to a changed length.
    I may be talking rubbish (as usual).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    IanB2 said:

    You wonder if they have measured the 400m for the hurdles correctly…

    There was discussion a couple of days ago that the torrential rain followed by baking sun would speed up the track.

    Maybe this also explains why there were so many flagged long jumps, with athletes unable to time their run-ups correctly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586
    A brief insight into the internecine complexity of political factionalism within Labour:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/03/labours-factions-keir-starmer-left-party-right

    Not just factions fighting within Labour for control of the party, but sub-factions fighting for control of the factions…..
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FT front page.
    UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report

    Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf

    On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.

    What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.

    What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.


    The IFG is a pretty useless organisation that Laurence Fox look objective and intelligent, and is just as ignorant of educational matters as the DfE itself. Since it makes a very basic error of fact in the first paragraph* I am not optimistic about the quality of the report.

    Probably best to ignore it. We will start getting reports from the actual experts - teachers - in the next few months and those will be the ones to pay attention to.

    Incidentally the FT is another paper where quality is dropping off a cliff. Five years ago it was the one paper that still had top quality journalism. Now it can’t even get basic statistics right (it’s constantly shrieking that Oakervee said HS2 will cost ‘not less than £106 billion,’ which is a lie so transparent even Archer would blush at it).

    *Gavin Williamson announced the closure of schools in the House of Commons. The press conference was where Johnson announced the cancellation of exams.
    The announcements were intended to be simultaneous. Here is what Boris said:-
    So I can announce today and Gavin Williamson making statement now in House of Commons that after schools shut their gates from Friday afternoon
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-18-march-2020
    Well, they weren’t.
    Was Boris late then? Late starts were not unknown in Downing Street press statements. Hansard times Gavin Williamson at 5.16pm.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2020-03-18/debates/FCD4DEB2-86A8-4F95-8EB8-D0EF4C752D7D/EducationalSettings
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586
    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    You wonder if they have measured the 400m for the hurdles correctly…

    If they haven't stride patterns would be wrong and I suspect times slower as athletes adapt to a changed length.
    I may be talking rubbish (as usual).
    You are probably right if the hurdles were spaced closer. But the initial runup or finishing section could be wrong. Of course this isn’t a serious concern, but it is remarkable that world records have been beaten by three competitors now in the same event.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    edited August 4
    One of the issues with reports like this is those who aren’t experts on education will almost certainly focus on the wrong things. They will talk about how the DfE constantly made the wrong decisions. About the impact of school closures. About the failure to get technology rolled out to those who needed it.

    But actually the more pertinent question is not how do we avoid that, but why did we end up with those problems? How is it that we still select far too many civil servants on the basis of who mummy was shagging nine months before they were born, despite the fact they are thick as mince and lazy as Dominic Cummings? And how do they tend to end up in certain departments? Why is our school building stock so bad at dealing with viruses, given they are such a common problem? Why are they so overcrowded, making transmission easier? Those are the reasons we had to shut them. Why do we not routinely issue laptops or tablets to secondary school age children, as we should have been doing for five years? Think how much easier remote learning and catch-up would have been if we did.

    I’m going to be controversial here and say I don’t think Covid in and of itself caused the problems in our education system. What it has done is shine an absolutely pitiless spotlight on how many things are wrong with it and how fragile the system is, due to the very high stress it is always under.

    And the issue is that by discussing the impact of Covid, the point that it was a systemic issue will be missed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,522

    Quincel said:

    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!

    Not even the youngest on the podium. Silver medallist Kokona Hiraki is only 12.

    Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
    Unless skateboarding starts using puberty blockers there's really no need for it.
    Boxing has a minimum age of 18 for the Olympics and disappointingly maybe for pbers considering a career change a cap of 40
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FT front page.
    UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report

    Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf

    On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.

    What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.

    What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.


    The IFG is a pretty useless organisation that Laurence Fox look objective and intelligent, and is just as ignorant of educational matters as the DfE itself. Since it makes a very basic error of fact in the first paragraph* I am not optimistic about the quality of the report.

    Probably best to ignore it. We will start getting reports from the actual experts - teachers - in the next few months and those will be the ones to pay attention to.

    Incidentally the FT is another paper where quality is dropping off a cliff. Five years ago it was the one paper that still had top quality journalism. Now it can’t even get basic statistics right (it’s constantly shrieking that Oakervee said HS2 will cost ‘not less than £106 billion,’ which is a lie so transparent even Archer would blush at it).

    *Gavin Williamson announced the closure of schools in the House of Commons. The press conference was where Johnson announced the cancellation of exams.
    The announcements were intended to be simultaneous. Here is what Boris said:-
    So I can announce today and Gavin Williamson making statement now in House of Commons that after schools shut their gates from Friday afternoon
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-18-march-2020
    Well, they weren’t.
    Was Boris late then? Late starts were not unknown in Downing Street press statements. Hansard times Gavin Williamson at 5.16pm.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2020-03-18/debates/FCD4DEB2-86A8-4F95-8EB8-D0EF4C752D7D/EducationalSettings
    Yes, probably. All I can tell you is I watched both live and Williamson was first by around half an hour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,130
    ydoethur said:

    One of the issues with reports like this is those who aren’t experts on education will almost certainly focus on the wrong things. They will talk about how the DfE constantly made the wrong decisions. About the impact of school closures. About the failure to get technology rolled out to those who needed it.

    But actually the more pertinent question is not how do we avoid that, but why did we end up with those problems? How is it that we still select far too many civil servants on the basis of who mummy was shagging nine months before they were born, despite the fact they are thick as mince and lazy as Dominic Cummings? And how do they tend to end up in certain departments? Why is our school building stock so bad at dealing with viruses, given they are such a common problem? Why are they so overcrowded, making transmission easier? Those are the reasons we had to shut them. Why do we not routinely issue laptops or tablets to secondary school age children, as we should have been doing for five years? Think how much easier remote learning and catch-up would have been if we did.

    I’m going to be controversial here and say I don’t think Covid in and of itself caused the problems in our education system. What it has done is shine an absolutely pitiless spotlight on how many things are wrong with it and how fragile the system is, due to the very high stress it is always under.

    And the issue is that by discussing the impact of Covid, the point that it was a systemic issue will be missed.

    Much of that is down to resource constraints, so don’t expect it to change any time soon.
    My wife has taken voluntary redundancy, and daughter is switching careers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    edited August 4
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    One of the issues with reports like this is those who aren’t experts on education will almost certainly focus on the wrong things. They will talk about how the DfE constantly made the wrong decisions. About the impact of school closures. About the failure to get technology rolled out to those who needed it.

    But actually the more pertinent question is not how do we avoid that, but why did we end up with those problems? How is it that we still select far too many civil servants on the basis of who mummy was shagging nine months before they were born, despite the fact they are thick as mince and lazy as Dominic Cummings? And how do they tend to end up in certain departments? Why is our school building stock so bad at dealing with viruses, given they are such a common problem? Why are they so overcrowded, making transmission easier? Those are the reasons we had to shut them. Why do we not routinely issue laptops or tablets to secondary school age children, as we should have been doing for five years? Think how much easier remote learning and catch-up would have been if we did.

    I’m going to be controversial here and say I don’t think Covid in and of itself caused the problems in our education system. What it has done is shine an absolutely pitiless spotlight on how many things are wrong with it and how fragile the system is, due to the very high stress it is always under.

    And the issue is that by discussing the impact of Covid, the point that it was a systemic issue will be missed.

    Much of that is down to resource constraints, so don’t expect it to change any time soon.
    My wife has taken voluntary redundancy, and daughter is switching careers.
    I know why it is, I’m just pointing out why Covid was such a train crash was not ultimately because of the virus.

    Sad to hear about your family. Mind you, I’m not surprised. At Easter three of my extended family were in teaching. As of last month I’m the only one left, and I’m considering all my options.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,115
    IanB2 said:

    A brief insight into the internecine complexity of political factionalism within Labour:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/03/labours-factions-keir-starmer-left-party-right

    Not just factions fighting within Labour for control of the party, but sub-factions fighting for control of the factions…..

    Meh. Group most of the sub-factions together largely into the two groups. The ones who think the worst election defeat since 1935 was a Bad Thing. And those who pretend there was no 2019 election and instead look at 2017 which Jeremy almost won and would have done if not for the evil Labour MPs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    .@BorisJohnson attempt to "bluff" his way through pandemic caused misery for pupils, new report finds

    Boris Johnson Blamed For 'Unforgivable' School Closure Delays And Exam Chaos

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/schools-covid-contingency-planning-institute-for-government_uk_610961e4e4b0552883e5e0db
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,130
    edited August 4
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    One of the issues with reports like this is those who aren’t experts on education will almost certainly focus on the wrong things. They will talk about how the DfE constantly made the wrong decisions. About the impact of school closures. About the failure to get technology rolled out to those who needed it.

    But actually the more pertinent question is not how do we avoid that, but why did we end up with those problems? How is it that we still select far too many civil servants on the basis of who mummy was shagging nine months before they were born, despite the fact they are thick as mince and lazy as Dominic Cummings? And how do they tend to end up in certain departments? Why is our school building stock so bad at dealing with viruses, given they are such a common problem? Why are they so overcrowded, making transmission easier? Those are the reasons we had to shut them. Why do we not routinely issue laptops or tablets to secondary school age children, as we should have been doing for five years? Think how much easier remote learning and catch-up would have been if we did.

    I’m going to be controversial here and say I don’t think Covid in and of itself caused the problems in our education system. What it has done is shine an absolutely pitiless spotlight on how many things are wrong with it and how fragile the system is, due to the very high stress it is always under.

    And the issue is that by discussing the impact of Covid, the point that it was a systemic issue will be missed.

    Much of that is down to resource constraints, so don’t expect it to change any time soon.
    My wife has taken voluntary redundancy, and daughter is switching careers.
    I know why it is, I’m just pointing out why Covid was such a train crash was not ultimately because of the virus.

    Sad to hear about your family. Mind you, I’m not surprised. At Easter three of my extended family were in teaching. As of last month I’m the only one left, and I’m considering all my options.
    Thanks. While it’s as much personal circumstances as the current state of education - positive as well as negative reasons - the latter tipped the balance.

    All the best with whatever you decide.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760

    IanB2 said:

    A brief insight into the internecine complexity of political factionalism within Labour:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/03/labours-factions-keir-starmer-left-party-right

    Not just factions fighting within Labour for control of the party, but sub-factions fighting for control of the factions…..

    Meh. Group most of the sub-factions together largely into the two groups. The ones who think the worst election defeat since 1935 was a Bad Thing. And those who pretend there was no 2019 election and instead look at 2017 which Jeremy almost won and would have done if not for the evil Labour MPs.
    It was Boris and CCHQ that learned the lessons of 2017. Labour did not; neither the leadership, who ran in 2019 a Milibandesque campaign, nor the right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586
    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    2nd half Aug is supposed to be 30c all the way...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!

    Not even the youngest on the podium. Silver medallist Kokona Hiraki is only 12.

    Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
    It does seem wrong. I do hope chimney-sweeping isn’t coming back as an Olympic event.
    Chimney sweeping as a sport went to pot long ago.
    It's been brushed away to give other sports a chance.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    edited August 4
    Charles said:

    mwadams said:

    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?

    I think it’s more that Biden has given her a bunch of really difficult stuff to do (eg solve immigration across the Mexican border). He’s basically stitched her up
    Choosing a medocrity because of her race and gender and giving her difficult stuff to do without the means to do it - how could that possibly end badly?

    A lesson for Labour anyway: try and pick the best candidate, not the one with the right genitalia.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    edited August 4
    Do you know who else has declining ratings relevant for people doing next President betting

    It's only DeSantis.

    https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1422677158472785926?s=19

    It turns out Floridians are more concerned about not catching Covid than we first thought.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,286
    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366
    Quincel said:

    Sturgeon on brink of cooperation deal with Scottish Greens
    Exclusive: agreement would cement a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and may give Greens ministerial seats

    The formal deal, which will stop short of a full coalition of the kind agreed by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats under David Cameron and Nick Clegg in 2010, would give the Scottish National party and Scottish Greens a clear majority of seats at Holyrood.

    It would allow the first minister to present a strong pro-climate agenda in advance of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow this November, and outvote anti-independence parties in Holyrood.

    It would be the first time after 14 years in power the SNP had signed a formal deal with another party

    The deal will present Scottish Labour, currently Holyrood’s third-largest party, with a significant political challenge. It is likely to give Sturgeon a resilient centre-left majority and removes her need to seek deals with Labour to get policies through the devolved parliament.

    the Conservatives are taking a softer line on the potential for a fresh independence referendum

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens

    Forgive my pedantry, but if there is a formal deal which gives Greens ministerial seats then in what way does it stop short of full coalition?
    Very good question, which the article fails to answer.

    Any agreement which gives both parties seats in Cabinet, a shared programme of legislation and an agreed Budget is a coalition. End of.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248

    Quincel said:

    Sturgeon on brink of cooperation deal with Scottish Greens
    Exclusive: agreement would cement a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and may give Greens ministerial seats

    The formal deal, which will stop short of a full coalition of the kind agreed by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats under David Cameron and Nick Clegg in 2010, would give the Scottish National party and Scottish Greens a clear majority of seats at Holyrood.

    It would allow the first minister to present a strong pro-climate agenda in advance of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow this November, and outvote anti-independence parties in Holyrood.

    It would be the first time after 14 years in power the SNP had signed a formal deal with another party

    The deal will present Scottish Labour, currently Holyrood’s third-largest party, with a significant political challenge. It is likely to give Sturgeon a resilient centre-left majority and removes her need to seek deals with Labour to get policies through the devolved parliament.

    the Conservatives are taking a softer line on the potential for a fresh independence referendum

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens

    Forgive my pedantry, but if there is a formal deal which gives Greens ministerial seats then in what way does it stop short of full coalition?
    Very good question, which the article fails to answer.

    Any agreement which gives both parties seats in Cabinet, a shared programme of legislation and an agreed Budget is a coalition. End of.
    Possibly junior ministerial not full cabinet?

    But I agree the ‘duck’ principle would seem to apply.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,398
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Root, I hope that's utterly wrong. 30C is loathsome.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    edited August 4
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,286
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Good question; I thought we were dead and buried when I saw who was left to bat. However, although I wasn't always impressed with Nijjar, he seems to have come on of late.
    And Snater's had quite a lot of stick on the Essex messageboard.
    Sadly, I've not been able to watch them this year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
    Not so good when opening schools for a day in early January.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
    Not so good when opening schools for a day in early January.
    Well, no.

    But again, the real mistake was arguably to keep them open so far into December.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
    Not so good when opening schools for a day in early January.
    ...the shortest term ever
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,863
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    My youngest sister is a teacher and AFAIK has no plans to change. HTH.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,586
    I see that (diesel-car driving) Allegra Stratton's job title is now "Environmental Advisor to the PM". Despite having no obvious qualifications for experience for such a position.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    My youngest sister is a teacher and AFAIK has no plans to change. HTH.
    House!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640
    Fishing said:

    Charles said:

    mwadams said:

    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?

    I think it’s more that Biden has given her a bunch of really difficult stuff to do (eg solve immigration across the Mexican border). He’s basically stitched her up
    Choosing a medocrity because of her race and gender and giving her difficult stuff to do without the means to do it - how could that possibly end badly?

    A lesson for Labour anyway: try and pick the best candidate, not the one with the right genitalia.
    The Mexican border is like our dingy problem, not easily soluble. There is vast poverty and societal disorder in Central America, often a result of US policy over the decades. Desperate people are willing to take major risks to escape it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    IanB2 said:

    I see that (diesel-car driving) Allegra Stratton's job title is now "Environmental Advisor to the PM". Despite having no obvious qualifications for experience for such a position.

    Surely you mean she has no particulate qualifications?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,286
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
    He does seem to be amazingly lucky. Does that quote about practising hard apply, or is will there come a point when Lady Luck announces that his allowance has expired.
    Although you could say that that happened when he had to deal with Covid!

    Incidentally, I like the smile on the policeman's face.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    Alistair said:

    Do you know who else has declining ratings relevant for people doing next President betting

    It's only DeSantis.

    https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1422677158472785926?s=19

    It turns out Floridians are more concerned about not catching Covid than we first thought.

    thx.

    If you betting on DeSantis for POTUS you are betting on Trump being so infirm with health issues or jail that he can't run. Otherwise the nomination is his.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,398
    Mr. B2, she's an overt hypocrite. Surely that counts as a qualification?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,398
    Dr. Foxy, I wonder how the sex balance stacks up. Vast majority of primary school teachers are female and I think there's a majority likewise in secondary schools.

    Getting more men into the profession could help. Could even give some kids from broken homes a male role model or two.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
    He does seem to be amazingly lucky. Does that quote about practising hard apply, or is will there come a point when Lady Luck announces that his allowance has expired.
    Although you could say that that happened when he had to deal with Covid!

    Incidentally, I like the smile on the policeman's face.
    Don't think it is luck in case of July 19th. Don't forget he had been told by advisors, and Javid had reiterated, that cases would rise with opening up but we could cope in NHS and vaccines would do their work. Learn to live with it. Javid expected 100K cases a day within a few weeks of 19th.

    Johnson had taken the decision that it was time to consider the economy and people's wider well being and not just covid. It looks likely that Javid fully agreed with him and that's one of the reasons he got the job when Hancock imploded.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
    Difficult to compare with other countries because teacher systems tend to be quite idiosyncratic. So for example in France it is expected a large number of graduates go into teaching, are assigned to a school, do it for 2-3 years and then do something else. But in the USA, where many state systems would be roughly comparable, around 8% a year leave teaching whereas a ‘natural’ rate would be about 3%. That’s a bit lower than ours but it’s not ridiculously different.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/

    There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.

    There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.

    And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.

    But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366
    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,398
    Mr. Dickson, I must take issue with at least parts of that link.

    "Collapse is often quick and greatness provides no immunity. The Roman Empire covered 4.4 million sq km (1.9 million sq miles) in 390. Five years later, it had plummeted to 2 million sq km (770,000 sq miles). By 476, the empire’s reach was zero."

    Sure. Miss out the Crisis of the Third Century. Or the survival of the Eastern Empire until the mid-15th century.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,863
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
    Difficult to compare with other countries because teacher systems tend to be quite idiosyncratic. So for example in France it is expected a large number of graduates go into teaching, are assigned to a school, do it for 2-3 years and then do something else. But in the USA, where many state systems would be roughly comparable, around 8% a year leave teaching whereas a ‘natural’ rate would be about 3%. That’s a bit lower than ours but it’s not ridiculously different.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/

    There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.

    There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.

    And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.

    But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
    "Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish" - try solicitors or accountants, both obsessed with chargeable hours and presenteeism.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    2nd half Aug is supposed to be 30c all the way...
    No thanks. I spent most of June and July in daytime temps up to 32, nighttime temps around 22 and almost no rain. I’ve had enough. I was looking forward to a cool August.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,495
    Fishing said:

    Charles said:

    mwadams said:

    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?

    I think it’s more that Biden has given her a bunch of really difficult stuff to do (eg solve immigration across the Mexican border). He’s basically stitched her up
    Choosing a medocrity because of her race and gender and giving her difficult stuff to do without the means to do it - how could that possibly end badly?

    A lesson for Labour anyway: try and pick the best candidate, not the one with the right genitalia.
    I'm sure that no mediocre white men have ever got the job because they were a white man. It's merely a remarkable coincidence that every previous occupant of Ms Harris's office has been white and male.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,668
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
    Difficult to compare with other countries because teacher systems tend to be quite idiosyncratic. So for example in France it is expected a large number of graduates go into teaching, are assigned to a school, do it for 2-3 years and then do something else. But in the USA, where many state systems would be roughly comparable, around 8% a year leave teaching whereas a ‘natural’ rate would be about 3%. That’s a bit lower than ours but it’s not ridiculously different.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/

    There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.

    There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.

    And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.

    But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
    "Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish" - try solicitors or accountants, both obsessed with chargeable hours and presenteeism.
    Try writing software in the bleeding edge/start up end of the industry.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
    Difficult to compare with other countries because teacher systems tend to be quite idiosyncratic. So for example in France it is expected a large number of graduates go into teaching, are assigned to a school, do it for 2-3 years and then do something else. But in the USA, where many state systems would be roughly comparable, around 8% a year leave teaching whereas a ‘natural’ rate would be about 3%. That’s a bit lower than ours but it’s not ridiculously different.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/

    There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.

    There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.

    And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.

    But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
    "Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish" - try solicitors or accountants, both obsessed with chargeable hours and presenteeism.
    Er...yes. That doesn’t surprise me.

    But we don’t get paid extra for it.

    Our contracts are based on working 1263 hours a year. 31.5 hours a week for 40 weeks a year.

    No full time teacher works 31.5 hours per week. You have to spend 22 hours in the classroom alone, ignoring tutor time, break duties and then planning and marking.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,863

    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
    Having just turned 60 I've decided I don't really mind dying. I used to regret missing out on the advances humanity would make, the expansion towards the stars etc. Now I think I know how it ends. A couple of hundred years left max, Mars is peak expansion, just hope for my sons sake The Road is not too much of a documentary.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,934
    Fishing said:

    Charles said:

    mwadams said:

    Without reference to the veracity of the story, or otherwise, it should be no surprise that line of attack is on the non-white woman in the White House. The Dems must have discussed strategy for this before the nomination, surely?

    I think it’s more that Biden has given her a bunch of really difficult stuff to do (eg solve immigration across the Mexican border). He’s basically stitched her up
    Choosing a medocrity because of her race and gender and giving her difficult stuff to do without the means to do it - how could that possibly end badly?

    A lesson for Labour anyway: try and pick the best candidate, not the one with the right genitalia.

    The Tories chose Boris Johnson to be their leader because they thought it gave them the best chance of winning an election, not because he was the best candidate to do the difficult work a PM is supposed to do. Harris was Biden's pick for exactly the same reasons.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,863
    GOOOOOLD in womens 470s sailing
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
    Difficult to compare with other countries because teacher systems tend to be quite idiosyncratic. So for example in France it is expected a large number of graduates go into teaching, are assigned to a school, do it for 2-3 years and then do something else. But in the USA, where many state systems would be roughly comparable, around 8% a year leave teaching whereas a ‘natural’ rate would be about 3%. That’s a bit lower than ours but it’s not ridiculously different.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/

    There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.

    There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.

    And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.

    But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
    "Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish" - try solicitors or accountants, both obsessed with chargeable hours and presenteeism.
    What confuses me is all the folk around here who claim to have high-powered jobs, but spend all day on an obscure blog. I think most of you are actually sitting in stained string vests, surrounded by pizza boxes and still living off the Bank of Mum and Dad.

    At least I have an excuse. I have ridiculously long holidays, an easy time at work and I am not the chief income earner (hurrah for feminism!!)

    Incidentally, “presenteeism” is the pest of our age: lots of people holding positions just for the sake of it but being horrifically poor at their actual jobs. Eg The Clown.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,115

    Quincel said:

    Sturgeon on brink of cooperation deal with Scottish Greens
    Exclusive: agreement would cement a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and may give Greens ministerial seats

    The formal deal, which will stop short of a full coalition of the kind agreed by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats under David Cameron and Nick Clegg in 2010, would give the Scottish National party and Scottish Greens a clear majority of seats at Holyrood.

    It would allow the first minister to present a strong pro-climate agenda in advance of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow this November, and outvote anti-independence parties in Holyrood.

    It would be the first time after 14 years in power the SNP had signed a formal deal with another party

    The deal will present Scottish Labour, currently Holyrood’s third-largest party, with a significant political challenge. It is likely to give Sturgeon a resilient centre-left majority and removes her need to seek deals with Labour to get policies through the devolved parliament.

    the Conservatives are taking a softer line on the potential for a fresh independence referendum

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens

    Forgive my pedantry, but if there is a formal deal which gives Greens ministerial seats then in what way does it stop short of full coalition?
    Very good question, which the article fails to answer.

    Any agreement which gives both parties seats in Cabinet, a shared programme of legislation and an agreed Budget is a coalition. End of.
    It would be a sensible assumption that the Green Party will get the Environment brief. If they are in government but not in coalition then what? Are the SNP handing the entire environment brief and policy over to the Green Party to run independently?

    Either way, Scotland elected 73 explicitly pro-independence MSPs giving a comfortable majority. Despite HYUFD's endless whining that it isn't a majority, it is. I will be greatly entertained to watch nippy bleat on about a referendum without actually producing one, but that is the "settled will of the Scottish people" or whatever the Tories latest phrase is.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    IshmaelZ said:

    GOOOOOLD in womens 470s sailing

    The French have protested
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,115
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    In fairness, he is good at opening things up. He was right to open schools on March 8th and experts, e.g. me, were wrong. He was right to open up last month and experts, or at least, SAGE, were wrong.

    Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
    Not so good when opening schools for a day in early January.
    ...the shortest term ever
    Who actually sent their kids in that one day? We didn't - rang the school and said they're not coming in. As did all of our kids friends. School was absolutely fine with it.

    Just because Gavin Ooh Betty Williamson says do something stupid doesn't mean anyone should listen.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,538

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    Looks like we have our youngest medalist!

    Not even the youngest on the podium. Silver medallist Kokona Hiraki is only 12.

    Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
    It does seem wrong. I do hope chimney-sweeping isn’t coming back as an Olympic event.
    Chimney sweeping as a sport went to pot long ago.
    It's been brushed away to give other sports a chance.
    Let's hope they managed to "step in time"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,384
    BMX. Skateboarding.

    We are pretty nifty at these non-sport sports.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,863
    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GOOOOOLD in womens 470s sailing

    The French have protested
    I refer them to the precedent of 1805. And 1794. And 1798. And 1805 and 1805 and 1805.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366

    Mr. Dickson, I must take issue with at least parts of that link.

    "Collapse is often quick and greatness provides no immunity. The Roman Empire covered 4.4 million sq km (1.9 million sq miles) in 390. Five years later, it had plummeted to 2 million sq km (770,000 sq miles). By 476, the empire’s reach was zero."

    Sure. Miss out the Crisis of the Third Century. Or the survival of the Eastern Empire until the mid-15th century.

    Well, that’s the dumbed down BBC for you.

    I agree with you that we must consider Constantinople as the continuation of Rome.

    I recently went through every single In Our Time concerning ancient Greece, Rome, Persia etc. Bragg can be an intolerable fool, but the academics are usually outstanding. Very good introduction to often difficult topics.

    But the best episode was outwith that area, instead concerning Doggerland. Absolutely fascinating. It wasn’t a “land bridge” but could well have been the richest and most densely inhabited part of northern Europe in its heyday. That was our lost Atlantis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,130

    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
    A more pertinent question is whether we'll be recognisably human in a century's time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,130
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    All sub 15C 0700 temps this week, after a long run of warm mornings up to 21C. Have we seen the best of the summer already?

    12.6C here. At least it's sunny, and I think the forecast is optimistic after the weekend.

    So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.

    And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
    So we have @Nigelb with 100% out, me with 67% out, and you with 33% out.

    We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.

    Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
    Do other countries have such ferocious attrition of teachers? Or is it a British problem? Apart from the staffing issues it seems very wasteful.

    Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
    Difficult to compare with other countries because teacher systems tend to be quite idiosyncratic. So for example in France it is expected a large number of graduates go into teaching, are assigned to a school, do it for 2-3 years and then do something else. But in the USA, where many state systems would be roughly comparable, around 8% a year leave teaching whereas a ‘natural’ rate would be about 3%. That’s a bit lower than ours but it’s not ridiculously different.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/

    There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.

    There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.

    And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.

    But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
    "Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish" - try solicitors or accountants, both obsessed with chargeable hours and presenteeism.
    Er...yes. That doesn’t surprise me.

    But we don’t get paid extra for it.

    Our contracts are based on working 1263 hours a year. 31.5 hours a week for 40 weeks a year.

    No full time teacher works 31.5 hours per week. You have to spend 22 hours in the classroom alone, ignoring tutor time, break duties and then planning and marking.
    Also assumes that solicitors and accountants work particularly hard during those hours they're present and/or bill.
    No doubt a few do.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,329
    edited August 4

    Quincel said:

    Sturgeon on brink of cooperation deal with Scottish Greens
    Exclusive: agreement would cement a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and may give Greens ministerial seats

    The formal deal, which will stop short of a full coalition of the kind agreed by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats under David Cameron and Nick Clegg in 2010, would give the Scottish National party and Scottish Greens a clear majority of seats at Holyrood.

    It would allow the first minister to present a strong pro-climate agenda in advance of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow this November, and outvote anti-independence parties in Holyrood.

    It would be the first time after 14 years in power the SNP had signed a formal deal with another party

    The deal will present Scottish Labour, currently Holyrood’s third-largest party, with a significant political challenge. It is likely to give Sturgeon a resilient centre-left majority and removes her need to seek deals with Labour to get policies through the devolved parliament.

    the Conservatives are taking a softer line on the potential for a fresh independence referendum

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens

    Forgive my pedantry, but if there is a formal deal which gives Greens ministerial seats then in what way does it stop short of full coalition?
    Very good question, which the article fails to answer.

    Any agreement which gives both parties seats in Cabinet, a shared programme of legislation and an agreed Budget is a coalition. End of.
    It would be a sensible assumption that the Green Party will get the Environment brief. If they are in government but not in coalition then what? Are the SNP handing the entire environment brief and policy over to the Green Party to run independently?

    Either way, Scotland elected 73 explicitly pro-independence MSPs giving a comfortable majority. Despite HYUFD's endless whining that it isn't a majority, it is. I will be greatly entertained to watch nippy bleat on about a referendum without actually producing one, but that is the "settled will of the Scottish people" or whatever the Tories latest phrase is.
    Good morning

    I agree with you about an indyref2 mandate but I genuinely believe it will not happen this side of the next GE

    @HYUFD make lots of antagonistic comments on the subject but in truth we are little over 2 and a half years from GE 24 believe it or not and that is not long, especially with covid still an issue

    Furthermore and notwithstanding the gung-ho nature of the Nationalists they have not even started to provide an answer to the big issues including

    Currency
    Hard border
    Pensions
    The timing of re-admittance to the EU
    Investment decision deferred due to unknowns and uncertainty


    (to name a few)


    Additionally, there has been a drift away by the Scots themselves to even holding indyref2, let alone voting for it, that it seems to me that it is unlikely to happen anytime soon
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366
    IshmaelZ said:

    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
    Having just turned 60 I've decided I don't really mind dying. I used to regret missing out on the advances humanity would make, the expansion towards the stars etc. Now I think I know how it ends. A couple of hundred years left max, Mars is peak expansion, just hope for my sons sake The Road is not too much of a documentary.
    Yepp, I know exactly what you mean.

    I just hope our children and their children manage to enjoy their lives, but thereafter I suspect the old Dickson DNA will get obliterated along with everyone else’s. I just hope it happens quickly for the poor buggers and they aren’t forced to suffer too much.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,329
    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
    A more pertinent question is whether we'll be recognisably human in a century's time.
    I won't and in a much shorter time frame as tempus fugit
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,041
    edited August 4
    Keir Starmer would sit down with Nicola Sturgeon to tackle the climate change emergency but has ruled out any deal with the SNP leader on the constitution. Ahead of a two-day campaign visit to Scotland, during which he will attack the nationalist government for failing to reach green targets, the Labour leader made it clear he is willing to talk with Sturgeon on anything but the independence question....

    Starmer said it was a mistake to see the SNP government as a progressive force, as many on Labour’s left still do. He said: “A test of how progressive you are is what you’re doing on climate change and they’ve manifestly failed on that. The SNP has failed to live up to the promises it made the people of Scotland.”


    He added: “Take, for example, wind turbines, an obvious part the next generation’s power supply. It is beyond belief that those wind turbines are coming from places such as Indonesia instead of being built in Scotland, which is where they should be built.” Research has revealed just one in 20 of the Scottish offshore wind jobs the SNP promised to create by 2020 has materialised.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-says-no-deal-24680358
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366
    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
    A more pertinent question is whether we'll be recognisably human in a century's time.
    The prime minister is recognisably simian.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Now here's a headline you really don't ever want to read:

    "Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"

    Between escalating nuclear stockpiles, a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical climate, indications of Cold War II, a multi-year pandemic, the Greenland ice sheet close to total failure, the Arctic soon history, self-sufficiency being unfashionable, trade friction beginning to hamper food supplies, a population explosion and concomitant annihilation of other species and habitats and astonishingly poor world leaders, one wonders if we’re not about to get an uncomfortably realistic exposition of life in the Middle Ages.

    … and now The Plague.

    The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.

    I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.

    Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
    A more pertinent question is whether we'll be recognisably human in a century's time.
    The prime minister is recognisably simian.
    It's only 8.30 and you are already insulting the Prime Minister. A pretty lane insult anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,584
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: like many, I’m not a massive Harris fan, and think Buttigieg far superior.

    But… don’t ignore the massive advantages of the incumbent VP. Should Biden find himself indisposed, she is President. And even if he doesn’t, she is massive favorite to succeed.

    Add in the Republicans potentially picking Trump as nominee, and you have the perfect storm for a very poor candidate to end up in the Oval Office.

    If Biden does not run again Harris as VP would be heir apparent for the Democratic nomination and she comfortably leads the early Democratic primary polls without Biden for 2024. However as the thread header relates she is basically Hillary 2 as her own staff will attest.

    There is therefore a strong chance that if Harris were the Democratic candidate Trump would beat her as he beat Hillary and return to the Oval Office to complete the second term Biden denied him in 2020.

    I therefore think it highly likely Biden will run for re election and as OGH suggests he may even replace Harris as his running mate
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,366

    Keir Starmer would sit down with Nicola Sturgeon to tackle the climate change emergency but has ruled out any deal with the SNP leader on the constitution.

    Ahead of a two-day campaign visit to Scotland, during which he will attack the nationalist government for failing to reach green targets, the Labour leader made it clear he is willing to talk with Sturgeon on anything but the independence question.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-says-no-deal-24680358

    It is his prerogative to reject his only feasible route to office, and according to the Daily Record (cough) that is exactly what he has chosen to do. This is (supposedly) a betting blog, so the wagers will now flood in. Not.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GOOOOOLD in womens 470s sailing

    The French have protested
    Are they revolting as well?
This discussion has been closed.