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Kamala Harris declining sharply in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Kamala Harris declining sharply in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Following on from our discussion yesterday on Joe Biden the chart above shows how punters are increasingly negative about Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the next President at WH2024. This follows declining poll ratings for the VP and a series of reports suggesting that all is not well in her office.
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If Biden runs again in 2024, then Harris cannot be running against him. If Biden steps down early, then Harris will already be the sitting President. So the price of any Democrat other than Biden or Harris must factor in the probability that Biden decides not to seek a second term but is not so debilitated that he is not forced into early retirement. That's a fairly narrow window. The value might still lie with Biden himself, dutched with Harris.
I'd be more inclined to look for an outsider on the Republican side.
As others said on the last couple of threads, Buttigieg will have a succession of infrastructure successes (touch wood) to report to the American people.
But is his name a problem? It is hard to spell and not obvious how to pronounce Buttigieg. Will this mean people fall back to using "Mayor Pete" and does that undersell or even undermine his claim to be President Pete?
"Chipmunks near Lake Tahoe test positive for the plague"
There's a good piece in the FT on the Biden side of this equation.
Why Joe Biden is such an elusive target for his critics - https://on.ft.com/3yoINFk
ETA skateboarding is like women's gymnastics used to be – half the contestants are too young to vote.
Which is unsurprising, given that 200 mammalian species have been observed to be susceptible (as carriers, at least).
It also complicates the issue of finding - if it exists - the direct host species.
UK’s education policies during Covid under fire in damning report
Paywalled but here is the IFG report it is based on:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/schools-and-coronavirus.pdf
On Wednesday 18 March 2020, with just two days’ notice, Boris Johnson, in the second of his televised broadcasts from Downing Street, announced that England’s 24,000 schools were to close “until further notice” from that Friday evening. Exams, due to take place three months later, were cancelled.
What followed was easily the most disruptive period in children’s education since at least the start of the Second World War. Schools closed only to be opened, closed, and then re-opened again. Exams were cancelled, not once but twice, with knock- on effects to university admissions that will be felt for years to come. Parents, heads and teachers struggled – with access to laptops for home schooling, with the home schooling itself, and with coronavirus testing regimes for pupils and staff. Free school meals became a burning political issue. When it came to education, U-turn was to follow U-turn. Well into March 2021, and indeed beyond, pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and BTecs remained unclear about precisely how they were to be assessed. At times it felt as though the school system was in chaos.
What follows is an analysis of what went wrong – and a few things that went right – in the hope that some lessons might be learnt should the education system ever have to go through anything similar again.
But… don’t ignore the massive advantages of the incumbent VP. Should Biden find himself indisposed, she is President. And even if he doesn’t, she is massive favorite to succeed.
Add in the Republicans potentially picking Trump as nominee, and you have the perfect storm for a very poor candidate to end up in the Oval Office.
Very young competitors used to feature in women's gymnastics – Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci et al – but aiui the rules were changed and a minimum age imposed. Should this happen here? Watching young girls fall and cry becomes wearing at best.
I'd be shocked if he ran again and replaced her though. These rumours float around constantly but never pan out, in part because of the danger that a disgrunted ex-VP could pose.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58080232
Probably best to ignore it. We will start getting reports from the actual experts - teachers - in the next few months and those will be the ones to pay attention to.
Incidentally the FT is another paper where quality is dropping off a cliff. Five years ago it was the one paper that still had top quality journalism. Now it can’t even get basic statistics right (it’s constantly shrieking that Oakervee said HS2 will cost ‘not less than £106 billion,’ which is a lie so transparent even Archer would blush at it).
*Gavin Williamson announced the closure of schools in the House of Commons. The press conference was where Johnson announced the cancellation of exams.
Not only have they ruled out doing it, but Gavin Williamson is opposed to it. There’s no surer sign that it’s what they’ll end up doing.
So I can announce today and Gavin Williamson making statement now in House of Commons that after schools shut their gates from Friday afternoon
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-18-march-2020
I may be talking rubbish (as usual).
Maybe this also explains why there were so many flagged long jumps, with athletes unable to time their run-ups correctly.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/03/labours-factions-keir-starmer-left-party-right
Not just factions fighting within Labour for control of the party, but sub-factions fighting for control of the factions…..
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2020-03-18/debates/FCD4DEB2-86A8-4F95-8EB8-D0EF4C752D7D/EducationalSettings
But actually the more pertinent question is not how do we avoid that, but why did we end up with those problems? How is it that we still select far too many civil servants on the basis of who mummy was shagging nine months before they were born, despite the fact they are thick as mince and lazy as Dominic Cummings? And how do they tend to end up in certain departments? Why is our school building stock so bad at dealing with viruses, given they are such a common problem? Why are they so overcrowded, making transmission easier? Those are the reasons we had to shut them. Why do we not routinely issue laptops or tablets to secondary school age children, as we should have been doing for five years? Think how much easier remote learning and catch-up would have been if we did.
I’m going to be controversial here and say I don’t think Covid in and of itself caused the problems in our education system. What it has done is shine an absolutely pitiless spotlight on how many things are wrong with it and how fragile the system is, due to the very high stress it is always under.
And the issue is that by discussing the impact of Covid, the point that it was a systemic issue will be missed.
Boxing has a minimum age of 18 for the Olympics and disappointingly maybe for pbers considering a career change a cap of 40
My wife has taken voluntary redundancy, and daughter is switching careers.
Sad to hear about your family. Mind you, I’m not surprised. At Easter three of my extended family were in teaching. As of last month I’m the only one left, and I’m considering all my options.
Boris Johnson Blamed For 'Unforgivable' School Closure Delays And Exam Chaos
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/schools-covid-contingency-planning-institute-for-government_uk_610961e4e4b0552883e5e0db
All the best with whatever you decide.
A lesson for Labour anyway: try and pick the best candidate, not the one with the right genitalia.
It's only DeSantis.
https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1422677158472785926?s=19
It turns out Floridians are more concerned about not catching Covid than we first thought.
So possibly Good Morning is appropriate.
And Ydoethur, two (so far) teachers in my family plan to continue to do so, although another has left the classroom to become an Ed Psych. Currently just finished, satisfactorily, the first year.
About the only time it really grapples with the issues Covid highlighted are when they talk about the fragmentation of the education system and the sidelining of local authorities. But here again, it draws exactly the wrong conclusion and says the DfE needs to work more with local authorities, who are so hollowed out when it comes to education that there is little point.
It even praises the laptop rollout, which was eight months late and totally inadequate.
I’m thinking I was unfair to Laurence Fox...
We need somebody with 0% here to complete the set.
Incidentally, I am seriously pissed off with Essex after yesterday. How on earth did you win from the position five overs out?
Any agreement which gives both parties seats in Cabinet, a shared programme of legislation and an agreed Budget is a coalition. End of.
But I agree the ‘duck’ principle would seem to apply.
Mr. Root, I hope that's utterly wrong. 30C is loathsome.
Whether he’s showing shrewd judgment or just amazingly lucky is another question, but given how important it is let’s not quibble.
And Snater's had quite a lot of stick on the Essex messageboard.
Sadly, I've not been able to watch them this year.
But again, the real mistake was arguably to keep them open so far into December.
Although you could say that that happened when he had to deal with Covid!
Incidentally, I like the smile on the policeman's face.
If you betting on DeSantis for POTUS you are betting on Trump being so infirm with health issues or jail that he can't run. Otherwise the nomination is his.
Or is it like the loss of Foundation Doctors a symptom of much deeper malaise within the system?
Getting more men into the profession could help. Could even give some kids from broken homes a male role model or two.
Johnson had taken the decision that it was time to consider the economy and people's wider well being and not just covid. It looks likely that Javid fully agreed with him and that's one of the reasons he got the job when Hancock imploded.
https://www.epi.org/publication/u-s-schools-struggle-to-hire-and-retain-teachers-the-second-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/
There are reasons for it. First of all, it’s bloody hard work, and not jus pt because of the nature of the beast. Teachers are the only profession I know where hard work is almost a fetish, so you will (true story) hear a primary school teacher boast that she takes her marking everywhere, even to her daughter’s swimming lessons. Such an attitude does bring pressure on the others and to those who don’t know how to find their own pace and stick to it, can be fatal.
There is also far too much pointless meddling by non-experts in media and the government which makes it very difficult to do effectively. Spielman is the epitome of this with her comical ineptitude designed to generate click bait in the Mail, but it affects most of the DfE. Woodhead was of course another example. It’s rather demoralising to be told you’re useless and lazy by functionally illiterate lowlifes who work 37 hour weeks in cosy offices when working 60 hour weeks under tough conditions.
And, of course, a lot go into teaching with high ideals and/or the expectation of short hours and long holidays and find the reality so different they just can’t take it. Woodhead, again, being an example, although he was forced out of teaching for other reasons.
But I think ultimately teaching in the British way is just very hard to do. To encourage discussion, thought, creativity and do it among 30 people a significant minority of whom don’t want to be there and can actually be violent is very, very tough. To do it on average 4.6 times a day forty weeks a year is even harder.
… and now The Plague.
The only thing missing is the asteroid strike or imminent destruction of Japan, California and the Pacific rim by earthquake and associated tsunamis.
I am slightly shocked to learn that the average age of a civilisation is only 336 years!! That’s tiny! And then ponder how long ago The Enlightenment was.
Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
"Collapse is often quick and greatness provides no immunity. The Roman Empire covered 4.4 million sq km (1.9 million sq miles) in 390. Five years later, it had plummeted to 2 million sq km (770,000 sq miles). By 476, the empire’s reach was zero."
Sure. Miss out the Crisis of the Third Century. Or the survival of the Eastern Empire until the mid-15th century.
But we don’t get paid extra for it.
Our contracts are based on working 1263 hours a year. 31.5 hours a week for 40 weeks a year.
No full time teacher works 31.5 hours per week. You have to spend 22 hours in the classroom alone, ignoring tutor time, break duties and then planning and marking.
At least I have an excuse. I have ridiculously long holidays, an easy time at work and I am not the chief income earner (hurrah for feminism!!)
Incidentally, “presenteeism” is the pest of our age: lots of people holding positions just for the sake of it but being horrifically poor at their actual jobs. Eg The Clown.
Either way, Scotland elected 73 explicitly pro-independence MSPs giving a comfortable majority. Despite HYUFD's endless whining that it isn't a majority, it is. I will be greatly entertained to watch nippy bleat on about a referendum without actually producing one, but that is the "settled will of the Scottish people" or whatever the Tories latest phrase is.
Just because Gavin Ooh Betty Williamson says do something stupid doesn't mean anyone should listen.
We are pretty nifty at these non-sport sports.
I agree with you that we must consider Constantinople as the continuation of Rome.
I recently went through every single In Our Time concerning ancient Greece, Rome, Persia etc. Bragg can be an intolerable fool, but the academics are usually outstanding. Very good introduction to often difficult topics.
But the best episode was outwith that area, instead concerning Doggerland. Absolutely fascinating. It wasn’t a “land bridge” but could well have been the richest and most densely inhabited part of northern Europe in its heyday. That was our lost Atlantis.
No doubt a few do.
I agree with you about an indyref2 mandate but I genuinely believe it will not happen this side of the next GE
@HYUFD make lots of antagonistic comments on the subject but in truth we are little over 2 and a half years from GE 24 believe it or not and that is not long, especially with covid still an issue
Furthermore and notwithstanding the gung-ho nature of the Nationalists they have not even started to provide an answer to the big issues including
Currency
Hard border
Pensions
The timing of re-admittance to the EU
Investment decision deferred due to unknowns and uncertainty
(to name a few)
Additionally, there has been a drift away by the Scots themselves to even holding indyref2, let alone voting for it, that it seems to me that it is unlikely to happen anytime soon
I just hope our children and their children manage to enjoy their lives, but thereafter I suspect the old Dickson DNA will get obliterated along with everyone else’s. I just hope it happens quickly for the poor buggers and they aren’t forced to suffer too much.
Starmer said it was a mistake to see the SNP government as a progressive force, as many on Labour’s left still do. He said: “A test of how progressive you are is what you’re doing on climate change and they’ve manifestly failed on that. The SNP has failed to live up to the promises it made the people of Scotland.”
He added: “Take, for example, wind turbines, an obvious part the next generation’s power supply. It is beyond belief that those wind turbines are coming from places such as Indonesia instead of being built in Scotland, which is where they should be built.” Research has revealed just one in 20 of the Scottish offshore wind jobs the SNP promised to create by 2020 has materialised.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-says-no-deal-24680358
There is therefore a strong chance that if Harris were the Democratic candidate Trump would beat her as he beat Hillary and return to the Oval Office to complete the second term Biden denied him in 2020.
I therefore think it highly likely Biden will run for re election and as OGH suggests he may even replace Harris as his running mate