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Biden should be a stronger favourite than this to win a second term – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 2 in General
imageBiden should be a stronger favourite than this to win a second term – politicalbetting.com

Joe Biden will be 79 in November and provided his health holds then he’ll surely seek to retain the White House at WH2024.

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,974
    qq
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554
    edited August 2
    First! (After the derny bike)
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831
    Ian you are foiled!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,572
    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    @Sandy Rentool, you're arguing that we could have escaped with 29,000 deaths from COVID? Seriously?

    How would we have achieved this miracle?

    We've had just over 150,000 deaths in the UK. I remember when it was announced that 40,000 would be a good result. Allowing a 10,000 margin on top of that, and 100,000 is the excess resulting from government incompetence.
    Nope, they died from Covid. A novel disease first known in 2019, that has killed millions round the world. You can rage and shout at the sun that the government got everything wrong, and if they had only done this and that, then no one would have died. I’m sure some decisions were wrong, but they were made at the time, not with the benefit of hindsight. I’ve said before that if we knew for certain that the vaccines would work and would start going into arms in December 2020, we could have locked down for much of the autumn and winter. We didn’t know. How many posts on here claimed that the vaccines would always be ‘coming’ and never arrive, like Christmas in Narnia?
    At the time we tried to balance risk of Covid and staying open, the tiers. My belief is that they were working until the Kent variant came and screwed it over. Counter factual is great fun. Military history buffs love it. I’d suggest waiting for the inquiry to see how we’ll spread the ‘blame’ goes.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    @Sandy Rentool, you're arguing that we could have escaped with 29,000 deaths from COVID? Seriously?

    How would we have achieved this miracle?

    We've had just over 150,000 deaths in the UK. I remember when it was announced that 40,000 would be a good result. Allowing a 10,000 margin on top of that, and 100,000 is the excess resulting from government incompetence.
    Nope, they died from Covid. A novel disease first known in 2019, that has killed millions round the world. You can rage and shout at the sun that the government got everything wrong, and if they had only done this and that, then no one would have died. I’m sure some decisions were wrong, but they were made at the time, not with the benefit of hindsight. I’ve said before that if we knew for certain that the vaccines would work and would start going into arms in December 2020, we could have locked down for much of the autumn and winter. We didn’t know. How many posts on here claimed that the vaccines would always be ‘coming’ and never arrive, like Christmas in Narnia?
    At the time we tried to balance risk of Covid and staying open, the tiers. My belief is that they were working until the Kent variant came and screwed it over. Counter factual is great fun. Military history buffs love it. I’d suggest waiting for the inquiry to see how we’ll spread the ‘blame’ goes.
    I knew the vaccines were coming and could date it to within about an 8 week window from late summer 2020. It defies logic that the Prime Minister didn’t have the same info. He just chose to listen to someone else instead.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,572
    moonshine said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    @Sandy Rentool, you're arguing that we could have escaped with 29,000 deaths from COVID? Seriously?

    How would we have achieved this miracle?

    We've had just over 150,000 deaths in the UK. I remember when it was announced that 40,000 would be a good result. Allowing a 10,000 margin on top of that, and 100,000 is the excess resulting from government incompetence.
    Nope, they died from Covid. A novel disease first known in 2019, that has killed millions round the world. You can rage and shout at the sun that the government got everything wrong, and if they had only done this and that, then no one would have died. I’m sure some decisions were wrong, but they were made at the time, not with the benefit of hindsight. I’ve said before that if we knew for certain that the vaccines would work and would start going into arms in December 2020, we could have locked down for much of the autumn and winter. We didn’t know. How many posts on here claimed that the vaccines would always be ‘coming’ and never arrive, like Christmas in Narnia?
    At the time we tried to balance risk of Covid and staying open, the tiers. My belief is that they were working until the Kent variant came and screwed it over. Counter factual is great fun. Military history buffs love it. I’d suggest waiting for the inquiry to see how we’ll spread the ‘blame’ goes.
    I knew the vaccines were coming and could date it to within about an 8 week window from late summer 2020. It defies logic that the Prime Minister didn’t have the same info. He just chose to listen to someone else instead.
    I don’t agree that we knew for absolute certain and how well they would work. That is rewriting history. There was talk of 60% efficacy being a good result. The ones we have smash that out the park, even for the newer variants. But it’s just not true to say we knew this in advance.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831
    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    It’s a complex thing the British psyche. The self hating end of the British national identity spectrum is perhaps the most interesting, but also the most irritating.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    It’s a complex thing the British psyche. The self hating end of the British national identity spectrum is perhaps the most interesting, but also the most irritating.
    Starmer was tweeting this shit the other day. Britain has the worst death rate in Europe!

    He must, surely, know this is bollocks. Does he not have researchers who check this kind of thing? Or is he also locked in some Strasbourg Syndrome of self loathing where he refuses to do two minutes of googling in case he finds out he's wrong?

    Weird
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,483
    "Joe Biden will be 79 in November, and provided his health holds."
    And there you have the reason why he isn't the overwhelming favourite.
    That and a somewhat irrational over estimate of the abilities and electability of Trump and the Republican Party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    edited August 2
    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    It’s a complex thing the British psyche. The self hating end of the British national identity spectrum is perhaps the most interesting, but also the most irritating.
    Starmer was tweeting this shit the other day. Britain has the worst death rate in Europe!

    He must, surely, know this is bollocks. Does he not have researchers who check this kind of thing? Or is he also locked in some Strasbourg Syndrome of self loathing where he refuses to do two minutes of googling in case he finds out he's wrong?

    Weird
    Ah, so that’s what I’ve got?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831

    moonshine said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    @Sandy Rentool, you're arguing that we could have escaped with 29,000 deaths from COVID? Seriously?

    How would we have achieved this miracle?

    We've had just over 150,000 deaths in the UK. I remember when it was announced that 40,000 would be a good result. Allowing a 10,000 margin on top of that, and 100,000 is the excess resulting from government incompetence.
    Nope, they died from Covid. A novel disease first known in 2019, that has killed millions round the world. You can rage and shout at the sun that the government got everything wrong, and if they had only done this and that, then no one would have died. I’m sure some decisions were wrong, but they were made at the time, not with the benefit of hindsight. I’ve said before that if we knew for certain that the vaccines would work and would start going into arms in December 2020, we could have locked down for much of the autumn and winter. We didn’t know. How many posts on here claimed that the vaccines would always be ‘coming’ and never arrive, like Christmas in Narnia?
    At the time we tried to balance risk of Covid and staying open, the tiers. My belief is that they were working until the Kent variant came and screwed it over. Counter factual is great fun. Military history buffs love it. I’d suggest waiting for the inquiry to see how we’ll spread the ‘blame’ goes.
    I knew the vaccines were coming and could date it to within about an 8 week window from late summer 2020. It defies logic that the Prime Minister didn’t have the same info. He just chose to listen to someone else instead.
    I don’t agree that we knew for absolute certain and how well they would work. That is rewriting history. There was talk of 60% efficacy being a good result. The ones we have smash that out the park, even for the newer variants. But it’s just not true to say we knew this in advance.
    I did not know the efficacy would be as stellar as it has proved to be. But it is true to say that quite a lot of people did get told on the tick that they would work to a degree that was at least highly satisfactory. Matt Hancock is said to have tried explaining this to Cabinet who allegedly called him delusional. Probably because he always fucking lied to them about everything else.

    As for variants, it’s not a virus that stays in a locked state for ever. But the private sector modelling is about a year old that indicated it would be relatively immutable and eventually most likely lead down an evolutionary dead end. So, yes. It was considered by many ahead of time that it was not worth shitting a brick about variants. Our own vaccine specialists have said the same for a while, as have the leading minds in the vaccine development teams.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    The number of places where excess deaths is lower than the number of recorded Covid deaths seems to be increasing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    I think it could literally be in the hundreds of thousands, maybe even a million

    An absolute epochal scandal. Horrific. They should be thrown in a dungeon for the rest of time, along with the fuckers from the lab in Wuhan. And the Chinese government
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554
    edited August 2
    Boris Johnson has ditched plans for tougher quarantine restrictions for some holidaymakers after days of chaos, as it emerged the chief of the Joint Biosecurity Centre that advises on travel rules has departed the job leaving it “rudderless”.

    After a revolt in the cabinet and a backlash from the travel industry, government sources said the prime minister would not be going ahead with proposals for a new “amber watchlist” to warn travellers which countries were at risk of turning red.

    Cabinet sources said the plans were killed off by the Treasury and Department for Transport, as ministers grow in confidence about the drop in cases, which fell to 21,052 on Monday. [Johnson] backed away from the idea on Monday, with senior cabinet sources saying the plan had been killed off by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, over fears it would leave holidaymakers in limbo.

    Just hours earlier, the government had defended the proposals for an amber watchlist, with Matt Warman, the minister for digital infrastructure, said it would provide people with more information so they could make “informed decisions”.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,483
    edited August 2
    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,776
    Leon said:

    Starmer was tweeting this shit the other day. Britain has the worst death rate in Europe!

    He must, surely, know this is bollocks. Does he not have researchers who check this kind of thing? Or is he also locked in some Strasbourg Syndrome of self loathing where he refuses to do two minutes of googling in case he finds out he's wrong?

    Weird

    Starmer seems to say quite a lot of things that can easily be demonstrated to be wrong. He doesn't seem like a particularly curious or numerate person.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited August 2
    IanB2 said:

    Boris Johnson has ditched plans for tougher quarantine restrictions for some holidaymakers after days of chaos, as it emerged the chief of the Joint Biosecurity Centre that advises on travel rules has departed the job leaving it “rudderless”.

    After a revolt in the cabinet and a backlash from the travel industry, government sources said the prime minister would not be going ahead with proposals for a new “amber watchlist” to warn travellers which countries were at risk of turning red.

    Cabinet sources said the plans were killed off by the Treasury and Department for Transport, as ministers grow in confidence about the drop in cases, which fell to 21,052 on Monday.

    That's a confusing report - the first and third paragraphs seem to put the reason for the end of the plans on completely different things. Ok, more than one reason can exist, but if the main reason was growing confidence then the ditching of plans would be a sign of strength, whereas if the main reason was backlash over chais and departure of an official then it is a sign of weakness.

    Edit: Written when only three paras in the initial post
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,572
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    @Sandy Rentool, you're arguing that we could have escaped with 29,000 deaths from COVID? Seriously?

    How would we have achieved this miracle?

    We've had just over 150,000 deaths in the UK. I remember when it was announced that 40,000 would be a good result. Allowing a 10,000 margin on top of that, and 100,000 is the excess resulting from government incompetence.
    Nope, they died from Covid. A novel disease first known in 2019, that has killed millions round the world. You can rage and shout at the sun that the government got everything wrong, and if they had only done this and that, then no one would have died. I’m sure some decisions were wrong, but they were made at the time, not with the benefit of hindsight. I’ve said before that if we knew for certain that the vaccines would work and would start going into arms in December 2020, we could have locked down for much of the autumn and winter. We didn’t know. How many posts on here claimed that the vaccines would always be ‘coming’ and never arrive, like Christmas in Narnia?
    At the time we tried to balance risk of Covid and staying open, the tiers. My belief is that they were working until the Kent variant came and screwed it over. Counter factual is great fun. Military history buffs love it. I’d suggest waiting for the inquiry to see how we’ll spread the ‘blame’ goes.
    I knew the vaccines were coming and could date it to within about an 8 week window from late summer 2020. It defies logic that the Prime Minister didn’t have the same info. He just chose to listen to someone else instead.
    I don’t agree that we knew for absolute certain and how well they would work. That is rewriting history. There was talk of 60% efficacy being a good result. The ones we have smash that out the park, even for the newer variants. But it’s just not true to say we knew this in advance.
    I did not know the efficacy would be as stellar as it has proved to be. But it is true to say that quite a lot of people did get told on the tick that they would work to a degree that was at least highly satisfactory. Matt Hancock is said to have tried explaining this to Cabinet who allegedly called him delusional. Probably because he always fucking lied to them about everything else.

    As for variants, it’s not a virus that stays in a locked state for ever. But the private sector modelling is about a year old that indicated it would be relatively immutable and eventually most likely lead down an evolutionary dead end. So, yes. It was considered by many ahead of time that it was not worth shitting a brick about variants. Our own vaccine specialists have said the same for a while, as have the leading minds in the vaccine development teams.
    I think it would have very difficult to lockdown on the assumption that the vaccines, which were still in blinded trials, were going to be here in dec 2020.
    I thought they were coming for sure, but we had to try to live with Covid and open up, hence the approach in the autumn. Hindsight calls it a wrong choice, but just like backing multiple vaccines, we’ve also backed multiple routes out of the pandemic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Starmer was tweeting this shit the other day. Britain has the worst death rate in Europe!

    He must, surely, know this is bollocks. Does he not have researchers who check this kind of thing? Or is he also locked in some Strasbourg Syndrome of self loathing where he refuses to do two minutes of googling in case he finds out he's wrong?

    Weird

    Starmer seems to say quite a lot of things that can easily be demonstrated to be wrong. He doesn't seem like a particularly curious or numerate person.
    Certainly, not very "forensic"

    Anyway I need an early night as tomorrow I have to rise at 6.30am to get a passport for my daughter so we can do a mad summer trip to Tbilisi. We hope

    Night night!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,483
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Starmer was tweeting this shit the other day. Britain has the worst death rate in Europe!

    He must, surely, know this is bollocks. Does he not have researchers who check this kind of thing? Or is he also locked in some Strasbourg Syndrome of self loathing where he refuses to do two minutes of googling in case he finds out he's wrong?

    Weird

    Starmer seems to say quite a lot of things that can easily be demonstrated to be wrong. He doesn't seem like a particularly curious or numerate person.
    Perfectly qualified to be PM then.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Starmer was tweeting this shit the other day. Britain has the worst death rate in Europe!

    He must, surely, know this is bollocks. Does he not have researchers who check this kind of thing? Or is he also locked in some Strasbourg Syndrome of self loathing where he refuses to do two minutes of googling in case he finds out he's wrong?

    Weird

    Starmer seems to say quite a lot of things that can easily be demonstrated to be wrong. He doesn't seem like a particularly curious or numerate person.
    Here’s a curious one. The self same people who decry how someone as unserious as Boris Johnson can become Minister, have nothing to say about someone as woolly minded as Kier Starmer becoming head of the CPS.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,898
    edited August 2
    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    You must have me mixed up with someone else. I have never argued that Britain has a particularly high covid death rate. Indeed I have long said that by the end of it all, there won't be much to choose between developed countries.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    You must have me mixed up with someone else. I have never argued that Britain has a particularly high covid death rate. Indeed I have long said that by the end of it all, there won't be much to choose between developed countries.
    You'll have to forgive him, it's getting late. :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited August 2
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You do realise that just makes him look somewhat endearing (and also Patel, FWIW)

    No one is looking at this and raging (apart from you)

    It's excellent publicity for Brand Boris. He probably staged it all
    Not sure about staging it but I watched it live and to be fair Boris handled it well and I do not think this incident did him any harm
    I'm joking about staging, but Boris has a natural comic gift. He can turn a potentially embarrassing incident into a laugh-with-me moment

    He did it with the zipwire. He made is somehow part of his shtick

    He has many many faults but a lack of showmanship is not one of them. He has an instinctive knack. And this is not unimportant, politicians can be damaged by this stuff - eg Miliband and the bacon sandwich
    I agree, he's definitely got a natural comic gift. It's just not what the country needs in a Prime Minister though, sadly.
    Particularly considering the sombre nature of the event, opening a police memorial.
    I really do not understand why people keep mentioning that - given one does not generally choose to have a brollie mishap what, exactly, should he have done once he encountered difficulty? People keep bringing it up, so presumably there's something egregiously terrible about being clumsy with an umbrella at a sombre event.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,512
    edited August 2
    I agree, President Biden still has a solid approval rating of 51% on average and even if he is old so is Trump and the Donald looks likely to be the GOP nominee again if he wants it.

    By contrast VP Harris has a significantly lower average approval rating of just 46%. There is a risk therefore that if Biden steps aside in 2024 the uncharismatic, relatively unpopular Harris will turn out to be Hillary 2 for the Dems and allow Trump to return to the Oval Office by the back door to complete the second term Biden denied him in 2020

    https://nypost.com/2021/07/29/democrats-worried-about-kamala-harris-approval-numbers/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You do realise that just makes him look somewhat endearing (and also Patel, FWIW)

    No one is looking at this and raging (apart from you)

    It's excellent publicity for Brand Boris. He probably staged it all
    Not sure about staging it but I watched it live and to be fair Boris handled it well and I do not think this incident did him any harm
    I'm joking about staging, but Boris has a natural comic gift. He can turn a potentially embarrassing incident into a laugh-with-me moment

    He did it with the zipwire. He made is somehow part of his shtick

    He has many many faults but a lack of showmanship is not one of them. He has an instinctive knack. And this is not unimportant, politicians can be damaged by this stuff - eg Miliband and the bacon sandwich
    I agree, he's definitely got a natural comic gift. It's just not what the country needs in a Prime Minister though, sadly.
    Particularly considering the sombre nature of the event, opening a police memorial.
    I really do not understand why people keep mentioning that - given one does not generally choose to have a brollie mishap what, exactly, should he have done once he encountered difficulty? People keep bringing it up, so presumably there's something egregiously terrible about being clumsy with an umbrella at a sombre event.
    The thing that is egregiously terrible is that he is Boris. Once you understand that, all will become clear.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,898
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,242
    edited August 2
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You do realise that just makes him look somewhat endearing (and also Patel, FWIW)

    No one is looking at this and raging (apart from you)

    It's excellent publicity for Brand Boris. He probably staged it all
    Not sure about staging it but I watched it live and to be fair Boris handled it well and I do not think this incident did him any harm
    I'm joking about staging, but Boris has a natural comic gift. He can turn a potentially embarrassing incident into a laugh-with-me moment

    He did it with the zipwire. He made is somehow part of his shtick

    He has many many faults but a lack of showmanship is not one of them. He has an instinctive knack. And this is not unimportant, politicians can be damaged by this stuff - eg Miliband and the bacon sandwich
    I agree, he's definitely got a natural comic gift. It's just not what the country needs in a Prime Minister though, sadly.
    Particularly considering the sombre nature of the event, opening a police memorial.
    I really do not understand why people keep mentioning that - given one does not generally choose to have a brollie mishap what, exactly should he have done once he encountered difficulty? People keep bringing it up, so presumably there's something egregiously terrible about being clumsy with an umbrella at a sombre event.
    Maybe it’s the types getting off on the charming brilliance of BJ’s clowning that encourage others to bring up the setting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,898
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    I suspect it's driven by AZN's UK connection.

    Welcome to the brave new world of UK global influence.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    While I basically take Menon's side on the actual point, this is a classic example of an argument where either person could make themselves look good and the other person less bad if they just unilaterally stopped fighting back. It's just assertion and counter-assertion with increasing bad temper - take a deep breath and walk away.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,016
    edited August 2

    LEFT: Sunak’s team brief Sunday Times

    Sunak calls to ‘save holidays’

    RIGHT: Johnson in Telegraph

    ‘PM steps in to save holidays’

    There is now a MAJOR briefing war between the advisors of Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak over who can be seen to ‘save’ holidays by scrapping quarantine


    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1422308800288206851?s=20
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You do realise that just makes him look somewhat endearing (and also Patel, FWIW)

    No one is looking at this and raging (apart from you)

    It's excellent publicity for Brand Boris. He probably staged it all
    Not sure about staging it but I watched it live and to be fair Boris handled it well and I do not think this incident did him any harm
    I'm joking about staging, but Boris has a natural comic gift. He can turn a potentially embarrassing incident into a laugh-with-me moment

    He did it with the zipwire. He made is somehow part of his shtick

    He has many many faults but a lack of showmanship is not one of them. He has an instinctive knack. And this is not unimportant, politicians can be damaged by this stuff - eg Miliband and the bacon sandwich
    I agree, he's definitely got a natural comic gift. It's just not what the country needs in a Prime Minister though, sadly.
    Particularly considering the sombre nature of the event, opening a police memorial.
    I really do not understand why people keep mentioning that - given one does not generally choose to have a brollie mishap what, exactly, should he have done once he encountered difficulty? People keep bringing it up, so presumably there's something egregiously terrible about being clumsy with an umbrella at a sombre event.
    One wonders if this sort of thing happened to other PMs a lot but it didn't match their image so the press didn't run with it, or Johnson was mucking about with the brollie some how in a way other PMs wouldn't? I agree with you though, probably just the former.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    edited August 2
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    You must have me mixed up with someone else. I have never argued that Britain has a particularly high covid death rate. Indeed I have long said that by the end of it all, there won't be much to choose between developed countries.
    Indeed. My apologies

    We shifted thread and I got confused. It was FF43 that made this claim. I get Remoaners confused because you all sound exactly the same

    Soz!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    edited August 2
    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,898
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I agree with OGH that the Biden price is wrong. But I think the GOP side is wide open. Trump has the same age issue as Biden, worse exercise and diet, an affinity for quack doctors, and a potential criminal prosecution issue to boot.

    DeSantis was flavour of the month last month because he seemed to be getting good covid results while sticking with right-wing orthodoxy but that's kind of been spoiled by the tendency of unvaccinated elderly people to get covid and die.

    I'd add that if we assume that Biden is running again, the electorate on the GOP side isn't necessarily the electorate that currently identifies as GOP. Parties running against near-uncontested incumbents usually pick moderates - Biden to fight Trump, Romney to fight Obama, Kerry to fight Bush, Dole to fight Clinton, Dukakis to fight Bush. This is partly because their party is often done indulging itself by that point, but it's also because moderate voters who are into voting vote in the only contested primary they've got.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    You must have me mixed up with someone else. I have never argued that Britain has a particularly high covid death rate. Indeed I have long said that by the end of it all, there won't be much to choose between developed countries.
    Indeed. My apologies

    We shifted thread and I got confused. It was FF43 that made this claim. I get Remoaners confused because you all sound exactly the same

    Soz!
    No problem, just correcting the record.

    Brexit is still a crock of shite though 😀
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,443


    LEFT: Sunak’s team brief Sunday Times

    Sunak calls to ‘save holidays’

    RIGHT: Johnson in Telegraph

    ‘PM steps in to save holidays’

    There is now a MAJOR briefing war between the advisors of Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak over who can be seen to ‘save’ holidays by scrapping quarantine


    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1422308800288206851?s=20

    I suspect the same majority that consistently thinks the Government is relaxing too quickly also thinks that making foreign travel easier and potentially bringing home exotic new variants is bonkers. I know several people who don't even feel the first (i.e. they're now pretty relaxed in their local area, seeing friends and shopping), but who definitely feel the second.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
    This is in some ways an even worse fuck up than Macron’s comments. Azn is supposed to be the work horse of the world so the reticence to hold back approval in America is causing incalculable damage, given how much smaller countries pay attention to the US regulator. Compounded of course by the pig headedness of not at least giving it an exception status for foreigners visiting the US who have had it. And finally all the doses they had sitting there for months in fridges.

    Had Trump overseen this, we’d never heard the end of it. I’m increasingly sure Biden’s term will go down as the worst they’ve ever had. Perhaps until Trump #2 next time!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
    I think Kamala only gets the nomination if she is President already.

    I wouldn't put it past Elizabeth Warren having another crack at it. Age is no bar in US politics.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,572

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    The food in shops is just a weird one. I have seen the odd item out of stock during my usual shopping but nothing out of the ordinary. I think if it hadn’t been in the news I wouldn’t have even noticed it. I’m not claiming that there have been no issues any where, but it has surely been hugely overstated.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited August 2

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You do realise that just makes him look somewhat endearing (and also Patel, FWIW)

    No one is looking at this and raging (apart from you)

    It's excellent publicity for Brand Boris. He probably staged it all
    Not sure about staging it but I watched it live and to be fair Boris handled it well and I do not think this incident did him any harm
    I'm joking about staging, but Boris has a natural comic gift. He can turn a potentially embarrassing incident into a laugh-with-me moment

    He did it with the zipwire. He made is somehow part of his shtick

    He has many many faults but a lack of showmanship is not one of them. He has an instinctive knack. And this is not unimportant, politicians can be damaged by this stuff - eg Miliband and the bacon sandwich
    I agree, he's definitely got a natural comic gift. It's just not what the country needs in a Prime Minister though, sadly.
    Particularly considering the sombre nature of the event, opening a police memorial.
    I really do not understand why people keep mentioning that - given one does not generally choose to have a brollie mishap what, exactly should he have done once he encountered difficulty? People keep bringing it up, so presumably there's something egregiously terrible about being clumsy with an umbrella at a sombre event.
    Maybe it’s the types getting off on the charming brilliance of BJ’s clowning that encourage others to bring up the setting.
    Maybe, but it just doesn't work as a counter unless people think he was intentionally clowning around, and thus able to be criticised. If it's unintentional because he's a clutz then the location is irrelevant.

    Doing a comic pratfall at a funeral would be inappropriate, but accidentally slipping onto your arse and people chuckling about it would not be inappropriate. And other people getting over enthused about how amusing it was wouldn't magically make the accidental fall inappropriate.

    Thinking more of him because he's clumsy may well be weird, but I'm bemused at the idea that we should think less of him because he was clumsy at a sombre event, yet that is the clear implication. If people are wanting to point out the irrationality of the former I don't see how that is achieved by being irrational about the latter.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    edited August 2
    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Excess deaths for the EU running from Jan 2020 to May 2021 is 11.9%. I can't find the equivalent date range for the UK. It was 20% in the year to Feb 2021, but that obviously covers the worst period for the UK. The FT chart shows Spain and the UK being the same, which implies a rate on the same date range of 14.8%.

    This would make the excess death rate in the UK 24% higher than the EU.

    Sources:https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics#Excess_mortality_in_the_European_Union_between_January_2020_and_May_2021

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
    This is in some ways an even worse fuck up than Macron’s comments. Azn is supposed to be the work horse of the world so the reticence to hold back approval in America is causing incalculable damage, given how much smaller countries pay attention to the US regulator. Compounded of course by the pig headedness of not at least giving it an exception status for foreigners visiting the US who have had it. And finally all the doses they had sitting there for months in fridges.

    Had Trump overseen this, we’d never heard the end of it. I’m increasingly sure Biden’s term will go down as the worst they’ve ever had. Perhaps until Trump #2 next time!
    The American regulator is responsible for American healthcare, not sending a message to some unspecified small country. The US has sufficient supply of the best vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna), so what's the emergency that would justify emergency-use approval of a shittier one?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You do realise that just makes him look somewhat endearing (and also Patel, FWIW)

    No one is looking at this and raging (apart from you)

    It's excellent publicity for Brand Boris. He probably staged it all
    Not sure about staging it but I watched it live and to be fair Boris handled it well and I do not think this incident did him any harm
    I'm joking about staging, but Boris has a natural comic gift. He can turn a potentially embarrassing incident into a laugh-with-me moment

    He did it with the zipwire. He made is somehow part of his shtick

    He has many many faults but a lack of showmanship is not one of them. He has an instinctive knack. And this is not unimportant, politicians can be damaged by this stuff - eg Miliband and the bacon sandwich
    I agree, he's definitely got a natural comic gift. It's just not what the country needs in a Prime Minister though, sadly.
    Particularly considering the sombre nature of the event, opening a police memorial.
    I really do not understand why people keep mentioning that - given one does not generally choose to have a brollie mishap what, exactly should he have done once he encountered difficulty? People keep bringing it up, so presumably there's something egregiously terrible about being clumsy with an umbrella at a sombre event.
    Maybe it’s the types getting off on the charming brilliance of BJ’s clowning that encourage others to bring up the setting.
    Maybe, but it just doesn't work as a counter unless people think he was intentionally clowning around, and thus able to be criticised. If it's unintentional because he's a clutz then the location is irrelevant.

    Doing a comic pratfall at a funeral would be inappropriate, but accidentally slipping onto your arse and people chuckling about it would not be inappropriate. And other people getting over enthused about how amusing it was wouldn't magically make the accidental fall inappropriate.

    Thinking more of him because he's clumsy may well be weird, but I'm bemused at the idea that we should think less of him because he was clumsy at a sombre event, yet that is the clear implication. If people are wanting to point out the irrationality of the former I don't see how that is achieved by being irrational about the latter.
    It's that sort of thing that leads to silly things like people getting in trouble because they smiled at sombre events, so they have to have the discipline of an automaton. I'm sure politicians would get in trouble if they were show sharing at a state funeral or something, which is a shame, you probably get some good dark jokes at a funeral.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Excess deaths for the EU running from Jan 2020 to May 2021 is 11.9%. I can't find the equivalent date range for the UK. It was 20% in the year to Feb 2021, but that obviously covers the worst period for the UK. The FT chart shows Spain and the UK being the same, which implies a rate on the same date range of 14.8%.

    This would make the excess death rate in the UK 24% higher than the EU.

    Sources:https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics#Excess_mortality_in_the_European_Union_between_January_2020_and_May_2021

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
    I've just shown you the Economist data, the best there is

    We are behind 14 EU nations (ie the majority) in excess deaths from Covid
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,572
    edited August 2
    Deleted as I can’t read or comprehend or both😀
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
    This is in some ways an even worse fuck up than Macron’s comments. Azn is supposed to be the work horse of the world so the reticence to hold back approval in America is causing incalculable damage, given how much smaller countries pay attention to the US regulator. Compounded of course by the pig headedness of not at least giving it an exception status for foreigners visiting the US who have had it. And finally all the doses they had sitting there for months in fridges.

    Had Trump overseen this, we’d never heard the end of it. I’m increasingly sure Biden’s term will go down as the worst they’ve ever had. Perhaps until Trump #2 next time!
    The American regulator is responsible for American healthcare, not sending a message to some unspecified small country. The US has sufficient supply of the best vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna), so what's the emergency that would justify emergency-use approval of a shittier one?
    Oh so now America doesn’t care about sending a message to small countries! It is not appreciably “shittier” but it is sold at cost by a foreign firm, rather than at considerable profit by an American one.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831
    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
    I think Kamala only gets the nomination if she is President already.

    I wouldn't put it past Elizabeth Warren having another crack at it. Age is no bar in US politics.
    How sure are we that if Biden wants a second term, the nomination is definitely his?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Excess deaths for the EU running from Jan 2020 to May 2021 is 11.9%. I can't find the equivalent date range for the UK. It was 20% in the year to Feb 2021, but that obviously covers the worst period for the UK. The FT chart shows Spain and the UK being the same, which implies a rate on the same date range of 14.8%.

    This would make the excess death rate in the UK 24% higher than the EU.

    Sources:https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics#Excess_mortality_in_the_European_Union_between_January_2020_and_May_2021

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
    I've just shown you the Economist data, the best there is

    We are behind 14 EU nations (ie the majority) in excess deaths from Covid
    Fine, but I compared apples to apples.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    The food in shops is just a weird one. I have seen the odd item out of stock during my usual shopping but nothing out of the ordinary. I think if it hadn’t been in the news I wouldn’t have even noticed it. I’m not claiming that there have been no issues any where, but it has surely been hugely overstated.
    The only shortage I have seen is the absurd one I mentioned, a temporary lack of flaked Parmesan in Marks and Spencers

    If you go on Twitter, the majority of photos of alleged empty shelves on UK supermarkets are actually - and obviously - photos taken in Australia, America, sometimes not even English speaking countries, and often they have no clear link to Covid in any way

    It is mad Remoaners and others just wishing this to be the case
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
    This is in some ways an even worse fuck up than Macron’s comments. Azn is supposed to be the work horse of the world so the reticence to hold back approval in America is causing incalculable damage, given how much smaller countries pay attention to the US regulator. Compounded of course by the pig headedness of not at least giving it an exception status for foreigners visiting the US who have had it. And finally all the doses they had sitting there for months in fridges.

    Had Trump overseen this, we’d never heard the end of it. I’m increasingly sure Biden’s term will go down as the worst they’ve ever had. Perhaps until Trump #2 next time!
    The American regulator is responsible for American healthcare, not sending a message to some unspecified small country. The US has sufficient supply of the best vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna), so what's the emergency that would justify emergency-use approval of a shittier one?
    Oh so now America doesn’t care about sending a message to small countries! It is not appreciably “shittier” but it is sold at cost by a foreign firm, rather than at considerable profit by an American one.
    Well, quite. The allegation is that American regulators saw quite a benefit in bringing many many billions of profit to big pharma companies in America, rather than the non profit making good guys in UK/Sweden

    Colour me unskeptical. I believe this is plausible
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    The food in shops is just a weird one. I have seen the odd item out of stock during my usual shopping but nothing out of the ordinary. I think if it hadn’t been in the news I wouldn’t have even noticed it. I’m not claiming that there have been no issues any where, but it has surely been hugely overstated.
    The only shortage I have seen is the absurd one I mentioned, a temporary lack of flaked Parmesan in Marks and Spencers
    Steady on, don't bring that up again, it'll trigger my PTSD.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,242
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    You must have me mixed up with someone else. I have never argued that Britain has a particularly high covid death rate. Indeed I have long said that by the end of it all, there won't be much to choose between developed countries.
    Indeed. My apologies

    We shifted thread and I got confused. It was FF43 that made this claim. I get Remoaners confused because you all sound exactly the same

    Soz!
    Funny you say that, you sound exactly the same as 4 or 5 previous PBers. Easy to get confused!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,512
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
    I think Kamala only gets the nomination if she is President already.

    I wouldn't put it past Elizabeth Warren having another crack at it. Age is no bar in US politics.
    How sure are we that if Biden wants a second term, the nomination is definitely his?
    Well he is the Democrats best chance of keeping Trump out that is for sure and no President since WW2 who has sought re election and fought all the primaries has failed to win their party's nomination
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    edited August 2
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
    I think Kamala only gets the nomination if she is President already.

    I wouldn't put it past Elizabeth Warren having another crack at it. Age is no bar in US politics.
    How sure are we that if Biden wants a second term, the nomination is definitely his?
    Conditional on him running I'd back him at 1/5, probably even at 1/10. No-one is challenging a sitting President who is frankly pretty popular in his party.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    I think there is no way in hell he is well enough to run again
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,512
    edited August 2

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I agree with OGH that the Biden price is wrong. But I think the GOP side is wide open. Trump has the same age issue as Biden, worse exercise and diet, an affinity for quack doctors, and a potential criminal prosecution issue to boot.

    DeSantis was flavour of the month last month because he seemed to be getting good covid results while sticking with right-wing orthodoxy but that's kind of been spoiled by the tendency of unvaccinated elderly people to get covid and die.

    I'd add that if we assume that Biden is running again, the electorate on the GOP side isn't necessarily the electorate that currently identifies as GOP. Parties running against near-uncontested incumbents usually pick moderates - Biden to fight Trump, Romney to fight Obama, Kerry to fight Bush, Dole to fight Clinton, Dukakis to fight Bush. This is partly because their party is often done indulging itself by that point, but it's also because moderate voters who are into voting vote in the only contested primary they've got.
    Usually but not always. The Democrats in 1972 picked the cultural leftist McGovern to take on Nixon and the GOP in 1964 picked the icon of the New Right Goldwater to take on Johnson.

    However if the GOP do decide to go for a moderate they could do worse than pick Romney again, untainted by Trump and experienced and intelligent and prepared to stand up to Putin and China and not abandon Afghanistan to its fate he would be ideal. Neither Biden nor Harris are a match for Obama either so he would have a real shot of winning the general too
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
    This is in some ways an even worse fuck up than Macron’s comments. Azn is supposed to be the work horse of the world so the reticence to hold back approval in America is causing incalculable damage, given how much smaller countries pay attention to the US regulator. Compounded of course by the pig headedness of not at least giving it an exception status for foreigners visiting the US who have had it. And finally all the doses they had sitting there for months in fridges.

    Had Trump overseen this, we’d never heard the end of it. I’m increasingly sure Biden’s term will go down as the worst they’ve ever had. Perhaps until Trump #2 next time!
    The American regulator is responsible for American healthcare, not sending a message to some unspecified small country. The US has sufficient supply of the best vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna), so what's the emergency that would justify emergency-use approval of a shittier one?
    Oh so now America doesn’t care about sending a message to small countries! It is not appreciably “shittier” but it is sold at cost by a foreign firm, rather than at considerable profit by an American one.
    I mean they're all good, but on available data AZ does seem to be appreciably less good than Pfizer/Moderna, eg the British got 88% effective for Pfizer vs 60% for AZ. A bunch of other people finding the same thing here:
    https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-covid-vaccine-effectiveness-protection-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-2021-7?op=1

    AZ is easier to store, but Americans have fridges.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,451
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    The food in shops is just a weird one. I have seen the odd item out of stock during my usual shopping but nothing out of the ordinary. I think if it hadn’t been in the news I wouldn’t have even noticed it. I’m not claiming that there have been no issues any where, but it has surely been hugely overstated.
    The only shortage I have seen is the absurd one I mentioned, a temporary lack of flaked Parmesan in Marks and Spencers

    If you go on Twitter, the majority of photos of alleged empty shelves on UK supermarkets are actually - and obviously - photos taken in Australia, America, sometimes not even English speaking countries, and often they have no clear link to Covid in any way

    It is mad Remoaners and others just wishing this to be the case
    Well I have no idea of the reason but Sainsbury's Cobham was out of pasta, tin tomatoes, rice, chilli beans, etc on Friday. The usual stuff people panic buy. It did have bread flour and loo rolls however which seem a favourite for disappearing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    In next week's episode:

    Bozo attempts to put up a deck chair.

    The episode involving a chain saw has been dropped.

    I am looking forward to his carrying a plank down a busy pedestrianised street.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,512
    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Someone mentioned Kamala

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1421859390106263552

    Kamala Harris has become the most unpopular US vice president six months into an administration since at least the 1970s, according to polls.

    Alarmed Democrat strategists are grappling with the Vice President's floundering poll numbers which show she is now "underwater," meaning more Americans disapprove, than approve, of her job performance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,242
    Foxy said:

    In next week's episode:

    Bozo attempts to put up a deck chair.

    The episode involving a chain saw has been dropped.

    I am looking forward to his carrying a plank down a busy pedestrianised street.
    Raab is quite capable of making his own way down a busy pedestrianised street. Probably.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
    I think Kamala only gets the nomination if she is President already.

    I wouldn't put it past Elizabeth Warren having another crack at it. Age is no bar in US politics.
    How sure are we that if Biden wants a second term, the nomination is definitely his?
    I am not sure that he would get it.

    I think Trump gets the Republican nomination, but then loses the POTUS.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,443
    Waverley councillors have been having a course on equalities and discrimination, about which I'm sure there is the usual difference of opinion here. However, I think nearly everyone here might enjoy this TED talk which it was built around - if you can spare 18 minutes, I think you will:

    https://www.ted.com/talks/chimamanda_ngozi_adichie_the_danger_of_a_single_story/transcript?language=en
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    edited August 2
    Floater said:

    Someone mentioned Kamala

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1421859390106263552

    Kamala Harris has become the most unpopular US vice president six months into an administration since at least the 1970s, according to polls.

    Alarmed Democrat strategists are grappling with the Vice President's floundering poll numbers which show she is now "underwater," meaning more Americans disapprove, than approve, of her job performance.

    Another reason to think Biden will run again even if they have to pickle him in formaldehyde and wiggle his arms around with strings. He's not going to want to leave the Dems with a lemon, especially if it risks letting Trump back in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    The food in shops is just a weird one. I have seen the odd item out of stock during my usual shopping but nothing out of the ordinary. I think if it hadn’t been in the news I wouldn’t have even noticed it. I’m not claiming that there have been no issues any where, but it has surely been hugely overstated.
    The only shortage I have seen is the absurd one I mentioned, a temporary lack of flaked Parmesan in Marks and Spencers

    If you go on Twitter, the majority of photos of alleged empty shelves on UK supermarkets are actually - and obviously - photos taken in Australia, America, sometimes not even English speaking countries, and often they have no clear link to Covid in any way

    It is mad Remoaners and others just wishing this to be the case
    Well I have no idea of the reason but Sainsbury's Cobham was out of pasta, tin tomatoes, rice, chilli beans, etc on Friday. The usual stuff people panic buy. It did have bread flour and loo rolls however which seem a favourite for disappearing.
    I have used up some surplus flour at the weekend making hard tack. It keeps for years it seems, as long as you store it dry.

    No particular reason, just thought it interesting to do. Real jawbreaker stuff it is too.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,755
    Floater said:

    Someone mentioned Kamala

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1421859390106263552

    Kamala Harris has become the most unpopular US vice president six months into an administration since at least the 1970s, according to polls.

    Alarmed Democrat strategists are grappling with the Vice President's floundering poll numbers which show she is now "underwater," meaning more Americans disapprove, than approve, of her job performance.

    She can be oddly stilted sometimes. Almost like a West Coast version of Gordon Brown.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    Foxy said:

    In next week's episode:

    Bozo attempts to put up a deck chair.

    The episode involving a chain saw has been dropped.

    I am looking forward to his carrying a plank down a busy pedestrianised street.
    Raab is quite capable of making his own way down a busy pedestrianised street. Probably.
    I think that for the routine to work, it needs to be a long plank not a short plank.

    Perhaps the two could do a double act with a large pane of glass?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,483
    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Note. Those odds imply a 40% chance of none of the named five.
    I find that somewhat implausible.
    The chances of the Dem, who have won the vote in 7 of the last 8, not being one of Biden or Harris is slight.
    The chances of a relative unknown beating Trump to the nomination must be minimal.
    Might be value in a nibble on all five.

    I wouldn't entirely rule out Trump deciding against a run, but I mostly agree with you. The value lay is surely Harris: Who needs Biden to step down, and to win a likely contested nomination, and to win the general. All that at just 6/1? I guess it depends how likely you think the first step is, but I'm very skeptical.

    Quite agree with OGH: Biden should be 2/1 absolute max, probably lightly odds on.
    I think Kamala only gets the nomination if she is President already.

    I wouldn't put it past Elizabeth Warren having another crack at it. Age is no bar in US politics.
    Except it literally is.
    35 to be eligible to be President. ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,831
    edited August 2

    Waverley councillors have been having a course on equalities and discrimination, about which I'm sure there is the usual difference of opinion here. However, I think nearly everyone here might enjoy this TED talk which it was built around - if you can spare 18 minutes, I think you will:

    https://www.ted.com/talks/chimamanda_ngozi_adichie_the_danger_of_a_single_story/transcript?language=en

    I'm pretty sure these type of courses are divisive and we'd all be better off without them. I will watch the TED talk though, they're usually interesting.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,869

    Floater said:

    Someone mentioned Kamala

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1421859390106263552

    Kamala Harris has become the most unpopular US vice president six months into an administration since at least the 1970s, according to polls.

    Alarmed Democrat strategists are grappling with the Vice President's floundering poll numbers which show she is now "underwater," meaning more Americans disapprove, than approve, of her job performance.

    Another reason to think Biden will run again even if they have to pickle him in formaldehyde and wiggle his arms around with strings. He's not going to want to leave the Dems with a lemon, especially if it risks letting Trump back in.
    Biden could feel obliged to run again because his own VP pick turned out to be useless? Could happen.

    The problem is, he was able to hide his decrepitness because the pandemic affected campaigning - indeed, he tried to make a virtue out of hiding in his basement for most of the campaign. He definitely will not get away with that a second time.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    Endillion said:

    Floater said:

    Someone mentioned Kamala

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1421859390106263552

    Kamala Harris has become the most unpopular US vice president six months into an administration since at least the 1970s, according to polls.

    Alarmed Democrat strategists are grappling with the Vice President's floundering poll numbers which show she is now "underwater," meaning more Americans disapprove, than approve, of her job performance.

    Another reason to think Biden will run again even if they have to pickle him in formaldehyde and wiggle his arms around with strings. He's not going to want to leave the Dems with a lemon, especially if it risks letting Trump back in.
    Biden could feel obliged to run again because his own VP pick turned out to be useless? Could happen.

    The problem is, he was able to hide his decrepitness because the pandemic affected campaigning - indeed, he tried to make a virtue out of hiding in his basement for most of the campaign. He definitely will not get away with that a second time.
    This is a party talking point not analysis - he was perfectly capable of walking around and giving speeches standing up, which is all he'd have needed.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,869

    Endillion said:

    Floater said:

    Someone mentioned Kamala

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1421859390106263552

    Kamala Harris has become the most unpopular US vice president six months into an administration since at least the 1970s, according to polls.

    Alarmed Democrat strategists are grappling with the Vice President's floundering poll numbers which show she is now "underwater," meaning more Americans disapprove, than approve, of her job performance.

    Another reason to think Biden will run again even if they have to pickle him in formaldehyde and wiggle his arms around with strings. He's not going to want to leave the Dems with a lemon, especially if it risks letting Trump back in.
    Biden could feel obliged to run again because his own VP pick turned out to be useless? Could happen.

    The problem is, he was able to hide his decrepitness because the pandemic affected campaigning - indeed, he tried to make a virtue out of hiding in his basement for most of the campaign. He definitely will not get away with that a second time.
    This is a party talking point not analysis - he was perfectly capable of walking around and giving speeches standing up, which is all he'd have needed.
    I'm making a point about his energy levels, not accusing him of having dementia.

    Although I can see how my use of "decrepitness" was misleading.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,576
    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    I'm sorry to be pedantic, but I don't believe that excess death per 100,000 is a particularly useful measure. All it does is identify how old a country's population is.

    Much more useful is excess deaths, percentage-wise. Because that accounts for the fact that some countries have higher natural death rates (because of older populations).

    The FT uses this as its metric, and it's much, much more useful.

    It makes very little difference to the European numbers, except to make Belgium look worse and Italy look better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,576
    moonshine said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    On the topic of incompetence and excess deaths, how many excess deaths do we think the whole AZN smearing debacle will actually cause? Looking at you Macron and Mr 8%.

    Not so many, judging by the (rather impressive) French vaccination performance.

    Which is not to diminish the criminal stupidity of Macron's comments.
    That doesn't tell you much. They suspended vaccination for an entire week if memory serves. The number now is almost irrelevant.
    I'm sure the number could be estimated quite well, based on the increased risk to those whose vaccination was delayed for a period, plus the number who were put off having a jab altogether (although the willingness in France to be vaccinated has I believe gone up overall since Macron's comments).
    Then you have to add the knock-on effect of all this negative publicity on take-up around the world, especially in countries relying on COVAX. In the end we'll never know for certain, as we won't know what the take-up rates would have been without this unfortunate episode.

    The most remarkable thing is that AZN and Pfizer have very similar safety profiles, and yet 99% of the negative coverage is on AZN.
    Also remarkable that AZN is still not approved in the US.
    This is in some ways an even worse fuck up than Macron’s comments. Azn is supposed to be the work horse of the world so the reticence to hold back approval in America is causing incalculable damage, given how much smaller countries pay attention to the US regulator. Compounded of course by the pig headedness of not at least giving it an exception status for foreigners visiting the US who have had it. And finally all the doses they had sitting there for months in fridges.

    Had Trump overseen this, we’d never heard the end of it. I’m increasingly sure Biden’s term will go down as the worst they’ve ever had. Perhaps until Trump #2 next time!
    The story in the US is a bit more complex than you make out. AstraZeneca filed. The FDA asked for more information. And AstraZeneca - four or five months later - has still not supplied that information.

    Should the FDA not have asked for the information? Maybe. But they did. It was AZ who decided not to supply it.

    If one had a cynical hat on, it was because it allowed AZ to sell its US-destined doses for higher prices to the rest of the world.

    For the record, I don't see how Trump being President would have made any different whatsoever to this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    Bloody hell

    It very very definitely came from the lab. This is a minority Republican report, but I predict Biden’s official US intel report will not significantly differ. Explosive

    https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ORIGINS-OF-COVID-19-REPORT.pdf
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,576
    Leon said:

    Bloody hell

    It very very definitely came from the lab. This is a minority Republican report, but I predict Biden’s official US intel report will not significantly differ. Explosive

    https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ORIGINS-OF-COVID-19-REPORT.pdf

    the preponderance of evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 was accidentally released from a Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory sometime prior to September 12, 2019. The virus, or the viral sequence that was genetically manipulated, was likely collected in a cave in Yunnan province, PRC, between 2012 and 2015. Researchers at the WIV, officials within the CCP, and potentially American citizens directly engaged in efforts to obfuscate information related to the origins of the virus and to suppress public debate of a possible lab leak.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    Tl;dr

    (But read it, jeez)


    ‘It is the opinion of Committee Minority Staff, based on the preponderance of available information; the documented efforts to obfuscate, hide, and destroy evidence; and the lack of physical evidence to the contrary; that SARS-CoV-2 was accidentally released from a Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory sometime prior to September 12, 2019.

    ‘The virus, which may be natural in origin or the result of genetic manipulation, was likely collected in the identified cave in Yunnan province, PRC, sometime between 2012 and 2015. Its release was due to poor lab safety standards and practices, exacerbated by dangerous gain-of-function research being conducted at inadequate biosafety levels, including BSL-2.

    ‘The virus was then spread throughout central Wuhan, likely via the Wuhan Metro, in the weeks prior to the Military World Games. Those games became an international vector, spreading the virus to multiple continents around the world.’
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,061
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Bloody hell

    It very very definitely came from the lab. This is a minority Republican report, but I predict Biden’s official US intel report will not significantly differ. Explosive

    https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ORIGINS-OF-COVID-19-REPORT.pdf

    the preponderance of evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 was accidentally released from a Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory sometime prior to September 12, 2019. The virus, or the viral sequence that was genetically manipulated, was likely collected in a cave in Yunnan province, PRC, between 2012 and 2015. Researchers at the WIV, officials within the CCP, and potentially American citizens directly engaged in efforts to obfuscate information related to the origins of the virus and to suppress public debate of a possible lab leak.
    The level of detail of the evidence is mind-boggling

    They’re going after Daszak, too
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,755
    edited August 3
    "The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory’s BSL-4 lab was constructed as a result of an agreement between the PRC and France that was signed after the 2003 SARS pandemic. At the time, all BSL-3 labs in the PRC were controlled by the PRC’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Then-President of France, Jacques Chirac,and his Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, approved the project despite concerns from both the French Ministry of Defense and French intelligence services – Raffarin himself described it as “a political agreement.” The PRC was suspected of having a biological warfare program, and the military and intelligence services were worried that the dual-use technology required to build a BSL-4 lab could be misused by the PRC government."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Whats p(lab leak) now? It's always been very suspicious that the outbreak occurred in the city where they were conducting coronavirus research.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
    edited August 3
    BBC News - Goldman Sachs raises banker pay after 95-hour week complaint
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58054983

    For that kind of payrise, they should definitely now be doing 95hr weeks.....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    edited August 3
    Leon said:

    Bloody hell

    It very very definitely came from the lab. This is a minority Republican report, but I predict Biden’s official US intel report will not significantly differ. Explosive

    https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ORIGINS-OF-COVID-19-REPORT.pdf

    I don't think it shows anything very very definitely, it's the existing somewhat persuasive circumstantial evidence arranged as a single story and narrated in a confident tone of voice.

    I expect Biden is getting the same basic substance but with a lot more "may have" and "could have".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
    Simon Gleave

    Head of sports analysis, Nielsen Gracenote

    Team GB's 35 medals are now six ahead of the number our pre-Olympic Virtual Medal Table forecast had at this stage.

    We have therefore adjusted our projected British medal total upwards to 58, including 16 gold medals as the number of golds is also two ahead of schedule.

    At this stage, it looks like Great Britain should finish fourth on total medals, ahead of host nation Japan.

    The current Gracenote forecast of 16 for Great Britain would almost certainly mean fifth place on the final medal table. Track cycling will probably be the key for this number to go higher to challenge the Russian Olympic Committee on golds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
    Israel COVID update: More than 3,800 new cases, highest since March

    - New cases: 3,849
    - Average: 2,419 (+255)
    - In hospital: 387 (+20)
    - In ICU: 48 (+5)
    - New deaths: 10

    Population vaccinated:
    - 1st dose: 62.27% (+0.04)
    - 2nd dose: 57.86% (+0.04)
    - 3rd dose: 0.48% (+0.26)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
    edited August 3
    Adam Gemilli pulled up in heats...sigh....

    Disaster for Team GB sprinting at these Olympics.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
    edited August 3
    Emotional seeing Gemili.

    Tears his hamstring in the warm up, tells them to strap it up and will give it a go anyway, clearly can't run, but still completes.

    He was in tears in the post race interview. Injury has wrecked opportunities in big races so many times during his career.

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1422391209377640465?s=19
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
    BBC News - Afghanistan: Street fighting rages as Taliban attack key city
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58051481

    20 years will overturned in 20 months....maybe 20 weeks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    New WR in the men’s 400m by someone from Norway of all places.
This discussion has been closed.