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Another post-BoJo quarantine U-turn poll sees CON below 40% and LAB within 4% – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,992

    Hugh Osmond
    @hughosmond
    Nightclub bosses ready to take Government to court over Covid vaccine passports ⁦
    @EssexPR

    I know tweets have limited space, but I'd like to know on what basis they intend to challenge, since you don't generally just get to go to court for not liking a decision (not that it stops people trying that), and the precise angle of approach they are taking would be interesting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    Would rather undermine their founding purpose, and would i imagine break legal covenants...
    Interesting challenge.

    It's a helluva big job.

    I might suggest Princess Anne.

    Naff Orf.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,504
    Danny Dyer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,636
    kle4 said:

    I know tweets have limited space, but I'd like to know on what basis they intend to challenge, since you don't generally just get to go to court for not liking a decision (not that it stops people trying that), and the precise angle of approach they are taking would be interesting.
    Initially they seem to be saying it will unlawful if there is not a proper consultation period with the industry.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    edited July 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Shocked. Absolutely shocked.
    2 in 20 years FFS?

    I'm still using the same gratererer that mum had when I was 5.

    How on earth do you break these things?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,132

    Off topic: Can anyone explain to me why Stonehenge with the A303 alongside it merits World Heritage Status but Stonehenge without the A303 in sight doesn't?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/23/stonehenge-may-be-next-uk-site-to-lose-world-heritage-status

    Liverpool has already lost World Heritage Status:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57927744
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    MattW said:

    2 in 20 years FFS?

    I'm still using the same gratererer that mum had when I was 5.

    How on earth do you break these things?
    You’re clearly not trying hard enough.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited July 2021
    kle4 said:

    I know tweets have limited space, but I'd like to know on what basis they intend to challenge, since you don't generally just get to go to court for not liking a decision (not that it stops people trying that), and the precise angle of approach they are taking would be interesting.
    Not a lawyer, but we can all speculate until somebody more expert puts us right... ;)

    I imagine they would be challenging the legal basis for the Government implementing restrictions on individual businesses. And if the Government manages to pass primary legislation then challenging if they are particularly singling out individual businesses. Especially if there are venues of similar levels of Covid risk where such restrictions are not required.

    As i suggested above, i can imagine that the Government's purpose for imposing requirements would be a big question. If it is because nightclubs without vaxports are deemed unsafe (in which case why are they allowed to open at present)? Or is it because they are being exploited because of their particular client base in order to co-erce their customers to get vaccinated. I can see that the Government could be on dodgy ground there...
  • That's such a Charles post, I feel like sometimes he just posts like an arrogant arse to get a reaction
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    alex_ said:

    Would rather undermine their founding purpose, and would i imagine break legal covenants...
    In that case Cumstain is the ideal candidate for the job.

    #Cum4NT
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    Indeed. Last time me and the wife were in Scotland we were given some real anti-English zingers from Scots we met on the assumption we were both American (the wife tends to do most of the talking in our relationship). It’s real.

    I was in Queensferry some years ago for a for a friend’s wedding to a local girl.

    Only place - anywhere in the world - I’ve been made to feel unwelcome because of my accent
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Liverpool has already lost World Heritage Status:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57927744
    A rather superfluous link given it is in the first paragraph of the article! ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    Surely the obvious candidate for head of NT, resident flint knapper Leon.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,992
    Cyclefree said:

    Christ! That's a real risk - he's a trustee of the National Portrait Gallery.

    George Osborne could probably add it to his 6879 other jobs.
    Rich people don't have jobs, just interests and hobbies.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    Chris Packham
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    Wouldn't that involve up and down movements of the right hand? Very hard work.

    The nice thing about real hunks of Parmesan is that they last for a very very long time - nearly 2 years in the freezer.
    Burying it in the garden is more authentic

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,636

    Surely the obvious candidate for head of NT, resident flint knapper Leon.....

    He's too busy playing 'hunt the cat collar' with his new vet girlfriend.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    rcs1000 said:

    Sure.

    But ultimately, it is in the interests of Germany to have as many pipelines going into then as possible. It's probably in the interests of the broader EU to have similar, although the rise of LNG makes natural gas security generally better for importers.

    It sucks, of course, for Ukraine. Because their leverage over Russia was stopping gas exports to Europe. But LNG was also beginning to chip away at that leverage.
    Indeed. Ultimately post-war Germany always follows the money and the security.

    One interesting one will whether the new "import of carbon" tariff gets applied.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    Charles said:

    I was in Queensferry some years ago for a for a friend’s wedding to a local girl.

    Only place - anywhere in the world - I’ve been made to feel unwelcome because of my accent
    You have an Edinburgh accent?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    You don't need a flawed observational study to prove sars cov 2 affects Brain function, you just need to open Twitter.

    The real q is if the effect is direct or indirect.


    https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1419043204083568641?s=20
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554

    Since you ask...

    I think the NT should focus on natural heritage and dump all of the big old houses.
    That's what Nature England is for.
    pigeon said:

    I was under the impression that Osborne had junked his sidelines to concentrate on making huge sums of money at some bank catering to the fantastically wealthy?

    I didn't know about Grayling's existing gig. Yes, I think he'd do very well.

    Chairmanship plus a life peerage incoming...
    Osborne joined Robey Warshaw to become an investment banker but then also announced he would be the next Chair of the British Museum.

    Perhaps the gig should go to David Cameron. He's not going to get many other offers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,093
    kle4 said:

    Other archaelogical aspects in the surrounding countryside, or presumed archaelogical aspects underground, I would assume. I don't think the tunnel opposers have done a great job of explaining that, though I imagine they still have majority support.

    But I must say the opening seems to suggest a somewhat irrational approach to judging Heritage Status, since I don't see why other sites would have a harsher spotlight thrown on them because of the Liverpool decision. Surely such decisions should be based on the individual situations of each site, the whole point being they are of unique heritage interest. So they should be viewed just as softly or harshly as they were before.
    I'm not really sure how losing WHS would make the slightest difference to Stonehenge tbh.

    I still think they should make a replica in the visitor centre car park of how the stone circle would have looked at its peak. Most visitors wouldn't bother to make the 2km walk from the visitor centre to the actual stones, thus protecting the real site.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Is this the first real world data we have of AZ against beta?

    It’s rather depressing the amount of crap AZ get re their vaccine when it’s astonishing good against *all variants* and after *1 dose* at protecting against severe disease.

    A big shame as it’s an excellent vaccine.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1417399667541827603?s=20
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,293
    kle4 said:

    Other archaelogical aspects in the surrounding countryside, or presumed archaelogical aspects underground, I would assume. I don't think the tunnel opposers have done a great job of explaining that, though I imagine they still have majority support.

    But I must say the opening seems to suggest a somewhat irrational approach to judging Heritage Status, since I don't see why other sites would have a harsher spotlight thrown on them because of the Liverpool decision. Surely such decisions should be based on the individual situations of each site, the whole point being they are of unique heritage interest. So they should be viewed just as softly or harshly as they were before.
    Not that I expect anyone to care but my parents life is blighted by what they did at Stonehenge. The new visitor centre being built led to far more people diverting off the 303 through their village. It has become a horrific rat run. The idiots who oppose the tunnel spout nonsense about destroying valuable history. Well you’ve had centuries to dig it up and haven’t bothered so far. It can all be surveyed and will be before digging starts.
    I genuinely love history and science, but I doubt that there is anything buried on the plain that will change our view of history. Almost all the shit they spout about Stonehenge is pure supposition. We cannot know what they used it for. Anyone who says different is lying.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    BTW, some PBers may recall that the other day I found £20 in our garden. Well this afternoon, after mowing, I found another £20 in almost the same spot.

    Very puzzling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    Leon said:

    I dunno, I think I might be nearer the truth

    There really was an expectation that after the Holyrood election there would be this unstoppable momentum towards sindyref2, incredible moral pressure on Boris, the Tories would cave. At the same time people like malc thought Alba would win six seats at least, putting pressure on Sturgeon to go for it

    None of that has happened, pressure for a vote has dissipated, rather than grown, the polls have not budged. NO have a small lead, a vote isn't happening til after the next GE, and even then it is extremely hard to force

    Sindyref2 now recedes towards 2030, I don't expect one until the late 2020s, at the earliest

    That's tough for a lot of Nats who thought they were on the edge of the next plebiscite.

    And of course by, say, 2028 or whatever, the UK will have drifted further from the EU and indy in the EU will seem even more of a wrench.....
    Bad take, I think. Or premature at best. It's driven too much by what you want to be the case. Once Covid is over I expect Sturgeon to be right on it for Sindy. People underestimate her and they do so in 2 ways. 1. That she doesn't really want to fight for Sindy because she's happy with her current top dog position. Think that's very clear bollocks. 2. That she's in any case powerless because Johnson can just say No and that's the end of it. Also bollocks. The situation is more nuanced than this. A ref by 2025 is drifting towards 2/1 and for me that's getting close to being worth a look.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Cyclefree said:

    Osborne joined Robey Warshaw to become an investment banker but then also announced he would be the next Chair of the British Museum.

    Perhaps the gig should go to David Cameron. He's not going to get many other offers.
    Ah! I'd somehow forgotten about the whole British Museum thing.

    You did ask for a useless incompetent. David Cameron's historic feat of contriving to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union against his own wishes may mean that he doesn't necessarily merit a position amongst the front rank of British statesmen, but he did at least manage to win a General Election.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,407

    Not that I expect anyone to care but my parents life is blighted by what they did at Stonehenge. The new visitor centre being built led to far more people diverting off the 303 through their village. It has become a horrific rat run. The idiots who oppose the tunnel spout nonsense about destroying valuable history. Well you’ve had centuries to dig it up and haven’t bothered so far. It can all be surveyed and will be before digging starts.
    I genuinely love history and science, but I doubt that there is anything buried on the plain that will change our view of history. Almost all the shit they spout about Stonehenge is pure supposition. We cannot know what they used it for. Anyone who says different is lying.
    Bollocks we know what it was for it was a primitive lottery number predictor
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    edited July 2021

    And they're off!

    Taken them a while to crank up the outrage bus.....original tweet 6 hours old....

    Being cautious & protecting oneself & others isn't 'cowering'? Many want to protect themselves & loved ones, including CEV & those who're unvaccinated, who are even greater risk. Those who are vaccinated can get infected, transmit & get long COVID. What sort of messaging is this?

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1419031354268917760?s=20

    Will that reach not-pology or apology status?

    Hmmm.

    On World Heritage Status, don't we mainly need to remember that UNESCO has always been a shitshow?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    BTW, some PBers may recall that the other day I found £20 in our garden. Well this afternoon, after mowing, I found another £20 in almost the same spot.

    Very puzzling.

    Is someone playing an elaborate prank? Are these new plastic £20s or old fashioned paper ones?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    BTW, some PBers may recall that the other day I found £20 in our garden. Well this afternoon, after mowing, I found another £20 in almost the same spot.

    Very puzzling.

    If you have in fact found the magic money tree then do please share your secret with the rest of us.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,407
    DougSeal said:

    Is someone playing an elaborate prank? Are these new plastic £20s or old fashioned paper ones?
    Perhaps some planted pound coins and is growing money trees
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,392
    Pretty significant drop in life expectancy in South Africa.

    Total Life Expectancy (LE) at birth declined from 65,5 to 62 years. Decline in Life expectancy is due to the rise in excessive deaths during #COVID19 pandemic.

    Read more here: https://t.co/2ApxFr2gdh

    #StatsSA #SApopulation https://t.co/ct3hZTcMxo
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,407
    Foxy said:

    Pretty significant drop in life expectancy in South Africa.

    Total Life Expectancy (LE) at birth declined from 65,5 to 62 years. Decline in Life expectancy is due to the rise in excessive deaths during #COVID19 pandemic.

    Read more here: https://t.co/2ApxFr2gdh

    #StatsSA #SApopulation https://t.co/ct3hZTcMxo

    How many excess deaths are due to the disturbed situation?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Downing St briefing that Javid behind France Amber Plus:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419048830071345152?s=20

    Nice of them to wait until he recovered.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    kinabalu said:

    Bad take, I think. Or premature at best. It's driven too much by what you want to be the case. Once Covid is over I expect Sturgeon to be right on it for Sindy. People underestimate her and they do so in 2 ways. 1. That she doesn't really want to fight for Sindy because she's happy with her current top dog position. Think that's very clear bollocks. 2. That she's in any case powerless because Johnson can just say No and that's the end of it. Also bollocks. The situation is more nuanced than this. A ref by 2025 is drifting towards 2/1 and for me that's getting close to being worth a look.
    But I was right that there would be no indyref whatever happened at Holyrood 2021, as Boris would just say No. Many on here - can't remember if you were one - were sure that the Tories would cave.

    FWIW I think whoever wins the next GE will also resist an indyref, including Starmer, and so it will be punted into the late 2020s. By then Sturgeon, however formidable, will be gone

    By the late 2020s the very powerful "once in a generation" argument will be wearing thin, so Sindyref2 will happen in the years 2028-2032, the same way the 2nd Quebec referendum came 15 years after the 1st.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087

    BTW, some PBers may recall that the other day I found £20 in our garden. Well this afternoon, after mowing, I found another £20 in almost the same spot.

    Very puzzling.

    Did you pick up the original £20?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,992
    Pagan2 said:

    Bollocks we know what it was for it was a primitive lottery number predictor
    Nonsense, it was the creation of a former club footed psychopath who spent decades ruining peoples lives for his deranged fantasy and cuckolded his brother into the bargain, Bernard Cornwell told me so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,392
    Pagan2 said:

    How many excess deaths are due to the disturbed situation?
    I don't think the recent riots would be affecting official figures yet. The economic problems stoking the riots, quite possibly though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884

    So no change from Opinium...lol

    I'm sick to death of their pre-poll tweets claiming something interesting is about to happen.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    You’re a fan of Dido, then ?
    (Her sole positive contribution to British society.)
    The singer? She’s a sweetheart
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,992

    Not that I expect anyone to care but my parents life is blighted by what they did at Stonehenge. The new visitor centre being built led to far more people diverting off the 303 through their village. It has become a horrific rat run. The idiots who oppose the tunnel spout nonsense about destroying valuable history. Well you’ve had centuries to dig it up and haven’t bothered so far. It can all be surveyed and will be before digging starts.
    I genuinely love history and science, but I doubt that there is anything buried on the plain that will change our view of history. Almost all the shit they spout about Stonehenge is pure supposition. We cannot know what they used it for. Anyone who says different is lying.
    Just seems to me that enhancing the current site brings some pretty big heritage improvements vs various bits that are and will remain buried or of less significance, though there are arguments about the length and siting of the tunnel. But pretty sure you used to be able to drive pretty damn close to them and they've been treated far worse even before they restored some of it.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,707

    Yes, Hove lawns last weekend - in a bus - seemed to be doing steady business.
    It was, until they suspended it because the staff on the bus were being intimidated by an anti-vaccine demo led by, guess who, Piers Corbyn. Tossers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,992
    edited July 2021

    BTW, some PBers may recall that the other day I found £20 in our garden. Well this afternoon, after mowing, I found another £20 in almost the same spot.

    Very puzzling.

    Did a drug dealer used to live there?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,644
    Leon said:



    I have a new girlfriend

    She is a veterinary nurse

    She is 23

    And, yes, she is a Corbynite (tho going off him a bit)

    I do not joke. I must just attract them somehow

    Does your path ever cross with these girls fathers? #awkward 😂
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    He's too busy playing 'hunt the cat collar' with his new vet girlfriend.
    Anecdote:

    When I met the vet last week, after some online flirting, she said OMG it's you, I really have seen you before

    She recognised me because I occasionally take my older daughter's new dog to her veterinary surgery in Hampstead. True story. Pure coincidence

    Fate?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,992
    Charles said:

    The singer? She’s a sweetheart
    I'm a fan.

    Though of course a posh guy would be a fan of someone named Florian Cloud de Bounevialle O'Malley Armstrong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,644

    Is this the first real world data we have of AZ against beta?

    It’s rather depressing the amount of crap AZ get re their vaccine when it’s astonishing good against *all variants* and after *1 dose* at protecting against severe disease.

    A big shame as it’s an excellent vaccine.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1417399667541827603?s=20

    Oh nice! That's the one I had! :D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,641

    Toby Young
    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Dominic Cummings (I don't know what he'd do but it'd be interesting...)
  • CandyCandy Posts: 51



    I think there's more a dawning realisation that if we have Indyref2 and they lose it then that it is for Scottish Independence for a very long time.

    A bit like Quebec, there was a second referendum which the Nats lost by 1% in 1995 and that was it, for a generation and then some.

    I think it may explain Nicola Sturgeon's reticence on Indyref2.


    Careful. The 1995 Quebec referendum changed facts on the ground in ways that the 2014 Scottish ref (and the Quebec 1980 ref) didn't.

    Prior to 1995, Montreal was the most established commercial city in Canada, it was like the London of Canada, because all big businesses established an office there, as it had the "network effect".

    A big part of the Quebec independence movement was based around the idea that "we" generate more than half Canada's GDP, why are we sharing this with the rest of Canada?

    After 1995 ref - where No won by 50.58% to 49.42% - the anglo-canadians were convinced that the next referendum was "sure" to win independence in the next ref and they didn't have any place in that country given the passive-aggressive attitude to non-French speakers.

    Overnight people packed their bags and moved to Toronto. Businesses, individuals, if you were either Anglo, or non-French immigrant, you got out.

    But that had an economic consequence.Quebec no longer generated the bulk of Canadian GDP. Ontario (the province where Toronto was located) did. And suddenly Quebec independence was no longer viable - because big (Anglo) business had fled. Which is why there hasn't been another ref since.

    Scotland isn't quite in the post-1995 Quebec landscape. No big business has fled, mainly because they all think independence won't happen. The oil price has collapsed from 2014 levels, but Scots don't feel it the way say Venezuelans or Russians do, because transfers from the UK govt have cushioned the effect.

    The independence movement in Scotland will only collapse if business starts to move south. But that will only happen if they lose a second ref. But they could win a second ref because voters don't realise that there might be an exodus after, in the same way 1995 Quebec didn't realise there would be an exodus. They might look at England after Brexit and think, "Nissan hasn't left, what if we're more like the English in strength than those weak Quebecois?"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    GIN1138 said:

    Does your path ever cross with these girls fathers? #awkward 😂
    Yes. And Yes. It's awkward
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656

    That's such a Charles post, I feel like sometimes he just posts like an arrogant arse to get a reaction

    Did I miss one, Horse?

    Are graters intimidating, or was it another one? :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279

    Quite some spin from Devi in response to Javid's tweet:

    This must be painful to read for those who were severely ill & for those who lost loved ones to COVID. It wasn’t because they were weak- just unnecessarily exposed to a virus. And wanting to avoid getting COVID isn’t ‘cowering’- it’s being sensible & looking out for others.

    https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1419028469514752003?s=20

    She appears to be objecting to this: "Please - if you haven’t yet - get your jab, as we learn to live with, rather than cower from, this virus."

    Is her objection to people getting vaccinated?

    Or that we will have to live with COVID?

    She was a Zero COVID fan, then argued "zero didn't mean zero".....

    I think she's objecting to the ridiculous infantile language. She probably expects the Health Sec not to talk like a total dick.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,392

    Dominic Cummings (I don't know what he'd do but it'd be interesting...)
    Jeremy Corbyn might be good at it. He might have fellow feeling for old relics.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,802
    edited July 2021
    Avoided the Olympics Road Race all day to watch on Eurosport on replay.
    There is no commentary!
    Is anything less comprehensible an event with no one to guide you?
    Especially as everyone has changed colours from the Tour into national uniforms.
    Some Belgians are setting the pace. For van Aert I assume. But I don't even know the route, so no idea how long this climb is.
    I appreciate the commentary 100% more now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884
    Leon said:

    If you want to talk about my love life, I have an announcement to make

    I have a new girlfriend

    She is a veterinary nurse

    She is 23

    And, yes, she is a Corbynite (tho going off him a bit)

    I do not joke. I must just attract them somehow
    Is she mixed-race?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    edited July 2021
    I thought it was a bit odd when i turned on the coverage last night...i presumed it was because it was Day 1 and / or something to do with covid....but no.

    "Discovery have sold back some of the rights to the BBC, allowing the Games to remain on free-to-air TV – but only around 10 per cent of the action (and only 2 live sports at any one time)."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884
    Pagan2 said:

    How many excess deaths are due to the disturbed situation?
    Too early to say, I'd expect.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited July 2021
    Candy said:


    Careful. The 1995 Quebec referendum changed facts on the ground in ways that the 2014 Scottish ref (and the Quebec 1980 ref) didn't.

    Prior to 1995, Montreal was the most established commercial city in Canada, it was like the London of Canada, because all big businesses established an office there, as it had the "network effect".

    A big part of the Quebec independence movement was based around the idea that "we" generate more than half Canada's GDP, why are we sharing this with the rest of Canada?

    After 1995 ref - where No won by 50.58% to 49.42% - the anglo-canadians were convinced that the next referendum was "sure" to win independence in the next ref and they didn't have any place in that country given the passive-aggressive attitude to non-French speakers.

    Overnight people packed their bags and moved to Toronto. Businesses, individuals, if you were either Anglo, or non-French immigrant, you got out.

    But that had an economic consequence.Quebec no longer generated the bulk of Canadian GDP. Ontario (the province where Toronto was located) did. And suddenly Quebec independence was no longer viable - because big (Anglo) business had fled. Which is why there hasn't been another ref since.

    Scotland isn't quite in the post-1995 Quebec landscape. No big business has fled, mainly because they all think independence won't happen. The oil price has collapsed from 2014 levels, but Scots don't feel it the way say Venezuelans or Russians do, because transfers from the UK govt have cushioned the effect.

    The independence movement in Scotland will only collapse if business starts to move south. But that will only happen if they lose a second ref. But they could win a second ref because voters don't realise that there might be an exodus after, in the same way 1995 Quebec didn't realise there would be an exodus. They might look at England after Brexit and think, "Nissan hasn't left, what if we're more like the English in strength than those weak Quebecois?"
    But there is another very big difference between Quebec and Scotland

    Quebec has the power to call an indy referendum whenever the Quebec government wants. That's the Canadian Constitution. It seems mad to me, but there it is.

    Edinburgh does not have that power. It is expressly reserved to the British government at Westminster

    Holyrood knows that if they call another vote, and lose, London will not grant another for 40 years. If ever. The instability will not be tolerated. That's it.

    Sindyref2 is their last chance for many decades and they have to win this time. Which is why they need to wait for polls to be heavily in their favour - say 60/40 - for a couple of years. And then they have to persuade London to agree. As the polls tell London to say No?

    It really is very hard for Holyrood to line up all these ducks to be shot in one go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,093
    edited July 2021

    I thought it was a bit odd when i turned on the coverage last night...i presumed it was nust because it was Day 1 and / or something to do with covid....but no.

    Discovery have sold back some of the rights to the BBC, allowing the Games to remain on free-to-air TV – but only around 10 per cent of the action.

    Discussed on here earlier today. Two streams only apparently.

    Capitalism in action, hurrah!
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298

    Toby Young
    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Prince Charles
    Prince Andrew
    Margaret Hodge
    Evgeny Lebedev
    Mike Ashley
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    DougSeal said:

    Is someone playing an elaborate prank? Are these new plastic £20s or old fashioned paper ones?
    Pukka plastic notes.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    dixiedean said:

    Avoided the Olympics Road Race all day to watch on Eurosport on replay.
    There is no commentary!
    Is anything less comprehensible an event with no one to guide you?
    Especially as everyone has changed colours from the Tour into national uniforms.
    Some Belgians are setting the pace. For van Aert I assume. But I don't even know the route, so no idea how long this climb is.
    I appreciate the commentary 100% more now.

    I watched the last half hour on BBC and they were largely reliably misleading in what was going on.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Sure.

    But ultimately, it is in the interests of Germany to have as many pipelines going into then as possible. It's probably in the interests of the broader EU to have similar, although the rise of LNG makes natural gas security generally better for importers.

    It sucks, of course, for Ukraine. Because their leverage over Russia was stopping gas exports to Europe. But LNG was also beginning to chip away at that leverage.
    That was leverage Russia had over Ukraine. Whenever Ukraine tried to increase its fees Russia switched off the gas.

    Now they can do that without losing hard currency.

    Germany has just fucked Eastern Europe

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,093
    Leon said:

    If you want to talk about my love life, I have an announcement to make

    I have a new girlfriend

    She is a veterinary nurse

    She is 23

    And, yes, she is a Corbynite (tho going off him a bit)

    I do not joke. I must just attract them somehow
    What happened to Mrs T ...er, Mrs Leon?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    kinabalu said:

    Bad take, I think. Or premature at best. It's driven too much by what you want to be the case. Once Covid is over I expect Sturgeon to be right on it for Sindy. People underestimate her and they do so in 2 ways. 1. That she doesn't really want to fight for Sindy because she's happy with her current top dog position. Think that's very clear bollocks. 2. That she's in any case powerless because Johnson can just say No and that's the end of it. Also bollocks. The situation is more nuanced than this. A ref by 2025 is drifting towards 2/1 and for me that's getting close to being worth a look.
    Since the angry squad appears to have retired for the night I shall chance a reply.

    I think you're right on your first point. Nicola Sturgeon obviously wants to achieve independence.

    How she goes about it is rather more complicated. Boris Johnson's obstructionism is a genuinely serious impediment, but even more importantly she has work to do with public opinion at home. Let's set aside whether or not there's a tiny margin in favour of independence in one poll or a tiny margin against in another: the general pattern is that Scotland is split right down the middle on this question. So long as this is the case, there is (a) the serious risk of losing a second referendum (in which case, the Quebec precedent comes into play - she has to be concerned that her cause might be sunk for a very long time); but also (b) the serious risk of having to undertake a state-building project to which almost half of the country did not consent.

    The difficulties posed by scenario (b) ought not to be underestimated. We've seen what's happened with Brexit: five years since the referendum it is still heartily resented by a substantial section of public opinion, who continue to blame it for all manner of problems - and that was "only" a decision to leave a trading bloc. Secession from a full political union that has been around for over three centuries is an order of magnitude more complex, and liable to be very expensive for the Scottish taxpayer to boot.

    If we assume that the Scottish Government will ask for a Section 30 order once the immediate Plague crisis abates, and that the UK Government refuses to grant it, then the former can try to rally public opinion against the latter by claiming that Scotland is being held against its will - but there have been years of complaints already, along the lines of 'being removed from the EU against our will' and 'a material change of circumstances justifies a second vote', and to what effect? There's no evidence that a substantial, settled majority of public opinion is prepared to secede in a rematch. So, if that still doesn't change, what then?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ok I now believe in ghosts.

    I mean only the ghost of Monty could be behind this.



    https://twitter.com/ArmyJew/status/1418877863634382853

    Edit - Definitely the Ghost of Monty.

    https://twitter.com/ArmyJew/status/1418882831577714694

    Relatively unknown except by General Marshall who plucked him out of obscurity because of some work that Ike did for him. Brought him to General Staff and mentored him. Sent him to Africa to run Torch. Passed up the opportunity to command Overlord because he though Ike would do a better job.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    What happened to Mrs T ...er, Mrs Leon?
    We *consciously uncoupled* a year ago. It was jolly sad for both. We move on, and I draw a veil....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,093
    Leon said:

    We *consciously uncoupled* a year ago. It was jolly sad for both. We move on, and I draw a veil....
    Sorry to hear that. But onwards and, er upwards, eh?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    Thinking about the NT job more seriously, Trevor Phillips might be a good choice.

    He wrote a very good article about how best to approach the good and bad in Britain's history - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trevor-phillips-when-you-erase-a-nations-past-you-threaten-its-future-xx9rqzqh9.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    pigeon said:

    Since the angry squad appears to have retired for the night I shall chance a reply.

    I think you're right on your first point. Nicola Sturgeon obviously wants to achieve independence.

    How she goes about it is rather more complicated. Boris Johnson's obstructionism is a genuinely serious impediment, but even more importantly she has work to do with public opinion at home. Let's set aside whether or not there's a tiny margin in favour of independence in one poll or a tiny margin against in another: the general pattern is that Scotland is split right down the middle on this question. So long as this is the case, there is (a) the serious risk of losing a second referendum (in which case, the Quebec precedent comes into play - she has to be concerned that her cause might be sunk for a very long time); but also (b) the serious risk of having to undertake a state-building project to which almost half of the country did not consent.

    The difficulties posed by scenario (b) ought not to be underestimated. We've seen what's happened with Brexit: five years since the referendum it is still heartily resented by a substantial section of public opinion, who continue to blame it for all manner of problems - and that was "only" a decision to leave a trading bloc. Secession from a full political union that has been around for over three centuries is an order of magnitude more complex, and liable to be very expensive for the Scottish taxpayer to boot.

    If we assume that the Scottish Government will ask for a Section 30 order once the immediate Plague crisis abates, and that the UK Government refuses to grant it, then the former can try to rally public opinion against the latter by claiming that Scotland is being held against its will - but there have been years of complaints already, along the lines of 'being removed from the EU against our will' and 'a material change of circumstances justifies a second vote', and to what effect? There's no evidence that a substantial, settled majority of public opinion is prepared to secede in a rematch. So, if that still doesn't change, what then?
    Yes, that's accurate. I think Sindy is rather stuck, as a cause. Lots of passionate support, but also lots of passionate opposition.

    It may be in this holding pattern for many many years

  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    Charles said:

    That was leverage Russia had over Ukraine. Whenever Ukraine tried to increase its fees Russia switched off the gas.

    Now they can do that without losing hard currency.

    Germany has just fucked Eastern Europe

    Ukraine revenue from gas transfer fees *was* running at £2 billion a year.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    Charles said:

    That was leverage Russia had over Ukraine. Whenever Ukraine tried to increase its fees Russia switched off the gas.

    Now they can do that without losing hard currency.

    Germany has just fucked Eastern Europe

    Again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    Leon said:

    This just isn't true, Scott, and until you learn why you are wrong, you will never heal your Brexit psychosis

    I'll spell it out for you one more time. Cummings is a kind of revolutionary. He believes the British state was locked into permanent stagnation, favouring one class over all the others - the London Remainer class, essentially. He felt that this was wrong, and that the UK was never going to reform in the radical way needed until it was released from the anti-democratic structures of the EU. To succeed in this reform, Brexit was not necessary - but not sufficient. Hence his later frustration with Boris - not radical enough.

    You can disagree with this, but this is what he sincerely believed - and believes. He didn't do Brexit to "fuck over people" - tho he surely enjoyed winning as an underdog - who wouldn't? He thinks Brexit is a good idea, still. As he said in his Laura K interview.
    The London Remainer class is an imaginary construct.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884

    Pukka plastic notes.
    I thought you were going to say you found it in coins.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Sorry to hear that. But onwards and, er upwards, eh?
    Thanks, and yes. I'm not sure the lovely vet nurse is forever, but it's a pleasant distraction. Also I get a discount on worming
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808

    Liverpool has already lost World Heritage Status:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57927744
    Is that because of Brexit, or in spite of?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    kinabalu said:

    The London Remainer class is an imaginary construct.
    It absolutely is not. You're part of it
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    Charles said:

    Don’t all your standard 99p graters come with a single blade for flaking?

    I’ve had 2 of them in the last 20 years (the posh metal ones for 5.99) and they’ve worked fine
    Yes, of course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    Charles said:

    I was in Queensferry some years ago for a for a friend’s wedding to a local girl.

    Only place - anywhere in the world - I’ve been made to feel unwelcome because of my accent
    Exactly how Brummie is it though?
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    edited July 2021
    kinabalu said:

    I think she's objecting to the ridiculous infantile language. She probably expects the Health Sec not to talk like a total dick.
    I don't know what he said. But she seems to have found herself wedged at least for a while down soundbite alley recently:

    "Zero Covid is misunderstood - it's about zero tolerance for COVID-19, and using a vaccine & public health strategies to stop transmission of COVID within communities, push to lowest possible #s, and get back more normal life."

    She may well have some good points. But I'm disinclined to listen to her when she lectures on the semantics of a coinage that is basically a mudthrower's term and which has only been around for less than two years to boot. That said, if she has changed her mind or developed her thinking, there's nothing wrong with that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    One might also add that the Government have been running "trials" of large scale events which haven't involved compulsory vaccination, the results of which haven't largely been published in detail. If it turned out that things like football matches (being outdoors etc) were not particularly notable "spreader events", then this would be a problem for the govt trying to assert a "public health benefit" defence.

    If they think it's essential that everyone gets vaccinated then maybe they should just legislate for it...

    I think the trial actually showed that the virus spread much more in the football events, probably due to the fact people are shouting and cheering more.
    alex_ said:

    You have previously expressed the view that it wouldn't be necessary to lockdown again. This smacks a bit of the Government not implementing measures to prevent lockdown, but to accommodate public opinion.
    I personally don't think it will be necessary, but I'm a bit of a hawk and I recognise that. I also personally thought we should have the Stage 3 lifting of lockdown in March instead of May, the Stage 4 in June instead of July. The government isn't following my advice and is being more cautious throughout.

    I don't think that this step of vaxports is necessary, but if there's going to be any restrictions then I'd infinitely prefer they be inconveniencing those too stupid or too selfish to get vaccinated than anyone else.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Is she mixed-race?
    I had a mixed race boyfriend once, did both the 100m and triathlon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Quite a “divided” for the Scottish tax payer too….

    The SNP say that after independence 'the Scottish Government is likely to require around thirty-five thousand new posts'

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1419056546940600322?s=20
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,093
    Leon said:

    Thanks, and yes. I'm not sure the lovely vet nurse is forever, but it's a pleasant distraction. Also I get a discount on worming
    That should help you avoid the perils of sushi.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237951-fish-used-for-sushi-now-carry-283-times-more-parasites-than-in-1980s/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    edited July 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    Thinking about the NT job more seriously, Trevor Phillips might be a good choice.

    He wrote a very good article about how best to approach the good and bad in Britain's history - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trevor-phillips-when-you-erase-a-nations-past-you-threaten-its-future-xx9rqzqh9.

    If we are more serious, I wonder about Matthew Taylor.

    Did not used to be a fan, but I have mellowed on him a little.

    My other maundering is a duo of a figurehead thinker and an administrative maker-happener.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    What annoyed my grandfather was the way he mishandled his tanks.

    If I tell you he was a staff officer in 9th Armoured Brigade and his elder brother was a squadron commander in the same brigade, you will understand why.
    My grandfather was on Jumbo Wilson’s staff so they may well have encountered each other!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,802
    Leon said:

    But there is another very big difference between Quebec and Scotland

    Quebec has the power to call an indy referendum whenever the Quebec government wants. That's the Canadian Constitution. It seems mad to me, but there it is.

    Edinburgh does not have that power. It is expressly reserved to the British government at Westminster

    Holyrood knows that if they call another vote, and lose, London will not grant another for 40 years. If ever. The instability will not be tolerated. That's it.

    Sindyref2 is their last chance for many decades and they have to win this time. Which is why they need to wait for polls to be heavily in their favour - say 60/40 - for a couple of years. And then they have to persuade London to agree. As the polls tell London to say No?

    It really is very hard for Holyrood to line up all these ducks to be shot in one go.
    Here is another vital difference. Quebec is c 24% of the population of Canada. Around 3 times as big a proportion as Scotland is to the UK.
    You would need 2/3rds of the seats in Anglo Canada to win a majority without it.
    You can't govern the whole country for very lengthy periods whilst being totally dismissive of the place.
    Ironically, Alberta is more likely to have the next referendum. As you can win without it.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,407

    I think the trial actually showed that the virus spread much more in the football events, probably due to the fact people are shouting and cheering more. I personally don't think it will be necessary, but I'm a bit of a hawk and I recognise that. I also personally thought we should have the Stage 3 lifting of lockdown in March instead of May, the Stage 4 in June instead of July. The government isn't following my advice and is being more cautious throughout.

    I don't think that this step of vaxports is necessary, but if there's going to be any restrictions then I'd infinitely prefer they be inconveniencing those too stupid or too selfish to get vaccinated than anyone else.
    And you dont give a shit if they also inconvenience those who reject government overreach....how extremely liberal of you
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited July 2021

    I think the trial actually showed that the virus spread much more in the football events, probably due to the fact people are shouting and cheering more. I personally don't think it will be necessary, but I'm a bit of a hawk and I recognise that. I also personally thought we should have the Stage 3 lifting of lockdown in March instead of May, the Stage 4 in June instead of July. The government isn't following my advice and is being more cautious throughout.

    I don't think that this step of vaxports is necessary, but if there's going to be any restrictions then I'd infinitely prefer they be inconveniencing those too stupid or too selfish to get vaccinated than anyone else.
    I think it is very harsh to accuse 20-30 year old, in particular, of being “too stupid or selfish”. I mean they even have health authorities around the world telling them that the AZ vaccine is to dangerous for them to take. It would only be natural for some to have concerns about other issues emerging in future. And this on top of the sacrifices they have been required to make over the last 15 months for, it is usually implied, the good of others. Older vaccine refuseniks, more reasonably.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    MattW said:

    If we are more serious, I wonder about Matthew Taylor.

    Did not used to be a fan, but I have mellowed on him a little.

    My other maundering is a duo of a figurehead thinker and an administrative maker-happener.
    Don't know much about him. Will look him up.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    And you dont give a shit if they also inconvenience those who reject government overreach....how extremely liberal of you
    I do actually. I've said I oppose vaxports on principle.

    However if there are going to be some illiberal choices to be made this winter, then government overreach affecting all of us is far worse than government overreach affecting those too stupid to get vaccinated.

    Vaxports are wrong in principle but a far lesser evil than another lockdown.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884
    edited July 2021
    Quincel said:

    I had a mixed race boyfriend once, did both the 100m and triathlon.
    I only asked because Leon has said before that he prefers mixed-race women.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    Cyclefree said:

    Don't know much about him. Will look him up.
    If Neil McGregor could be tempted back from Germany, he'd be a good choice too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex_ said:

    I think it is very harsh to accuse 20-30 year old, in particular, of being “too stupid or selfish”. Older vaccine refuseniks, more reasonably.
    Not really. The science is that the 20-30 year old should be getting vaccinated.

    If they're refusing to do so because they're gullible enough to fall for some stupid antivaxx video they've seen on TikTok or Twitter then absolutely "too stupid" is the entirely correct term to use.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,407

    I do actually. I've said I oppose vaxports on principle.

    However if there are going to be some illiberal choices to be made this winter, then government overreach affecting all of us is far worse than government overreach affecting those too stupid to get vaccinated.

    Vaxports are wrong in principle but a far lesser evil than another lockdown.
    No imposing vaccine passports is far far worse than just letting the vax decliners take their chances we unlock anyway
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,656
    edited July 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    Don't know much about him. Will look him up.
    Son of Laurie Taylor (I did not know that). Has run the RSA since 2006, about when I let my membership lapse. Head of Policy Unit to Blair.

    So some familiarity with running organisations / membership organisations, and a very broad awareness / vision of society and how to deal with varied coalitions. I think the latter is critical for NT as it can be very factional. Presumably well connected.

    The weak point imo may be running very large organisations, but a suitable Deputy could fill that gap.
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298

    Not that I expect anyone to care but my parents life is blighted by what they did at Stonehenge. The new visitor centre being built led to far more people diverting off the 303 through their village. It has become a horrific rat run. The idiots who oppose the tunnel spout nonsense about destroying valuable history. Well you’ve had centuries to dig it up and haven’t bothered so far. It can all be surveyed and will be before digging starts.
    I genuinely love history and science, but I doubt that there is anything buried on the plain that will change our view of history. Almost all the shit they spout about Stonehenge is pure supposition. We cannot know what they used it for. Anyone who says different is lying.
    The new visitor centre and the projected tunnel are both crap.

    But the mortise and tenon joints in the trilithons are cool. Talk about built to last!

This discussion has been closed.