BoJo’s Tories are arguably more vulnerable to the LDs at the next election than LAB – politicalbetti

felix said:

glw said:

Leon said:

"The Delta variant is different," says Dr. Rick Barr of the Arkansas Children's Health System.

"We have 12 children admitted to the hospital now with Covid... they seem to be much sicker. Most of them are teenagers, and a number of them are in the ICU and have Covid pneumonia."

https://twitter.com/cnnnewsroom/status/1417572641884495873?s=21

We have to start vaxing our kids NOW

This is also alarming

‘Virulence of Delta, the evidence

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Compared with the non-variant of concerns

Increases with Delta variant

120% (93-153%) for hospitalization
287% (198-399%) for ICU admission
137% (50-230%) for death.’

‘A significantly larger and more lethal pandemic’

https://twitter.com/rougematisse/status/1417697218291773443?s=21

I'm too hot and tired to ponder the numbers, but all those pauses and restrictions on the use of vaccines back in the spring are looking like particularly stupid decisions now.

I got my second AZT jab last Saturday - I'm 67 and in Spain the 65-69 cohort got left behind while Spain p****d around deciding who not to give AZT to. Delta is now surging in the country and I've no doubt many in my cohort will fall victim to these shenanigens. Hope I will be OK because my area is relatively light on cases. However, it has been a close and concerning shave! About 10 more days before I should be well protected.

These suggestions about how Delta is much more dangerous for children and hence we must vaccinate now and (probably by implication shut schools until this is done). With Leon panicking like it’s March 2020.

I think a bit of perspective here - “much more dangerous to children”, does not by any stretch mean “dangerous to children”

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Labour opposing vaccine passports

Not necessarily for clubs and sports events though and Labour have also come out for mandatory Covid testing in order to gain access to venues instead which would be even more of a hassle and more expensive

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1417866274638553090?s=20
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1417854510953897989?s=20

US life expectancy dropped 1.5 years last year: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/21/us/american-life-expectancy-report.html

Thanks to Covid.

JosiasJessop said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

It’s time to finish off the wine cellar

Don't try this at home @Charles!

Okay... what's the machine on the right? A way of getting corks into bottles, or something to restrain SeanT when he tries to drink the cellar's entire contents?

That looks like a champagne cellar, and it’s possibly a specialist, antique machine for champagne corks

MaxPB said:

44k cases.

School's out for summer…

algarkirk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do have to laugh at somebody lecturing others on racism when they endorse a party with an Islamophobia problem.

You shouldn't be so harsh on yourself.....

You make jokes about racism, which is pretty low. The Tories have an Islamophobia problem and you know it.

I think the country as a whole has an islamophobia problem, and that is reflected in ALL political parties, at least at the level of voters. Its tricky, because some evil, probably psychopathic, mentally ill, people have been committing atrocities in the name of Islam and your average person on the street reacts to that. That some elements of the muslim religion seem to want to live separate lives in the UK gets on some peoples wicks. Are all muslims terrorists? Of course not, the vast majority are decent everyday people, but the evil ones end up tarring the rest, no matter how unfair that is.

Its wrong to discriminate against Muslims, but there is a greater threat to society from Islamic extremists than there is the other way around. Same thing all around the globe wherever people adopt extremist religions.

Organised religion is a pox on the globe.

Two things: Remove the issue from Islam for a moment. If in the UK there were, say, 2,000 or even 200 self identifying Methodists who went around blowing people up, organising violence and generally causing mayhem, including killing little girls, then the public at large would have some sort of problem with Methodism as a whole. The BBC and the Guardian would be critically appraisingf the wider issues of what has gone wrong. Think how the history of the IRA and of various prot loonies in NI affect in little way the way people think about the wider cultural and religious communities.

Secondly, the view, I am sure sincerely held, that organised religion is a pox on the globe won't really do. Firstly it is false - just think of those nice sincere decent people running the food banks in their spare time; secondly religion is (in this respect if no other) like sex. It is a naturally occurring phenomenon with some malign effects, some great and indispensable features and is, despite the efforts of those who should know better, ineradicable.

I'm fairly agnostic* on religion, but I'm not that convinced that religion makes people do good things particularly** or bad things particularly. Our local vicar is an astoundingly lovely man and he's at the heart of much that's good in our community, but I don't for a moment think he'd stop doing good things if he had a crisis of faith. Many food banks are not religious, where they are I'd suggest that it's more just a focal point of the community - I've done charity work in collaboration with the local church, but I don't attend and am agnostic/atheist. If we didn't have religion, would another community focus point take the lead? Maybe.

Organised religion has been cover for many bad things, obviously. Maybe it's easier to argue that the Catholic child abuse scandals are due to their policies - would those people be sex offenders if able to marry or publicly enter a same sex relationship, for example - many probably would, but perhaps some would have not taken advantage of vulnerable young people in private if able to have an open sex-life (they of course had a choice to leave the priesthood to do that, too, so I'm not trying to offer any kind of defence here!)

*pun not originally intended, but then I realised and left it in anyway - it's probably still a better word than 'ambivalent'... 'neutral', maybe
** Islam may actually be an exception here, as I believe there is a strong ethic of giving away a percentage of income/wealth (zakat?). Likely also present in other religions, I'm no expert here...

DougSeal said:

I think today’s 4% increase from last Wednesday is the smallest week on week daily reported increase we have seen since May. I think.

Lets hope. The quicker that Covid fucks off the better. We all want the case numbers figure to go down to insignificant and to stay there.

Leon said:

felix said:

MaxPB said:

felix said:

williamglenn said:

I've just been reading about the vaccine situation in Australia. It seems like a complete shambles and they're currently not giving AZ to people under 60 despite having spare domestic production capacity.

What is the latest on vaccoine efficacy for AZT/Moderna/Pfizer, etc. I thought they were all looking good for all the current variants but Leon is semihyper-ventilating about Delta so I wonder if there is some news I've missed.

This is still the most up to date comparative study. Both vaccines come out pretty well against delta. I think the Canadian numbers have also been basically the same but is based on a smaller data set. The Israeli studies are the most interesting because it could point to efficacy decline being more of an issue for delta than we had previously hoped.

Thank you - they seem to be extraordinarily good given the speed of their development. Leon refers to alarm bells about the Delta variant affecting children quite seriously in the US. I'm a little sceptical as it would surely have emerged in other countries already - India/UK/Europe.

Perhaps it has

‘Children’s hospital admissions England only. Yellow - delta variant.’

https://twitter.com/kidscovidgamble/status/1417809284079960072?s=21


NB - I have not checked the source of that graph. Caveat emptor

You’ve got to be very careful with “kids in hospital with COVID” stats - Humza Useless got himself into a pickle over this recently when he made claims about “kids in hospital with COVID” when it turned out that most of them were in hospital for something else and had only tested positive on admission.

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Boris says it's "common sense" to let people cram into nightclubs for ten weeks before demanding a Covid passport. It's a view.

Just close nightclubs forever FFS. "Changed world" and all that. It's not a huge price to pay. I'm fed up with hearing representatives of "the nightclub industry" say nightclubs should open without restrictions. They would say that, wouldn't they? I'm almost as fed up with them as I am with politicians who imply that nightclubs are what every youngster wants, or that most people's main form of socialisation is going down the pub.

alex_ said:

felix said:

glw said:

Leon said:

"The Delta variant is different," says Dr. Rick Barr of the Arkansas Children's Health System.

"We have 12 children admitted to the hospital now with Covid... they seem to be much sicker. Most of them are teenagers, and a number of them are in the ICU and have Covid pneumonia."

https://twitter.com/cnnnewsroom/status/1417572641884495873?s=21

We have to start vaxing our kids NOW

This is also alarming

‘Virulence of Delta, the evidence

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Compared with the non-variant of concerns

Increases with Delta variant

120% (93-153%) for hospitalization
287% (198-399%) for ICU admission
137% (50-230%) for death.’

‘A significantly larger and more lethal pandemic’

https://twitter.com/rougematisse/status/1417697218291773443?s=21

I'm too hot and tired to ponder the numbers, but all those pauses and restrictions on the use of vaccines back in the spring are looking like particularly stupid decisions now.

I got my second AZT jab last Saturday - I'm 67 and in Spain the 65-69 cohort got left behind while Spain p****d around deciding who not to give AZT to. Delta is now surging in the country and I've no doubt many in my cohort will fall victim to these shenanigens. Hope I will be OK because my area is relatively light on cases. However, it has been a close and concerning shave! About 10 more days before I should be well protected.

These suggestions about how Delta is much more dangerous for children and hence we must vaccinate now and (probably by implication shut schools until this is done). With Leon panicking like it’s March 2020.

I think a bit of perspective here - “much more dangerous to children”, does not by any stretch mean “dangerous to children”

The Israelis disagree with you


‘The Israeli Director General of the Ministry of Health, Prof. Nachman Ash, does not rule out return to school capsules or bubbles. Nachman Ash told Ynet that “we are preparing for a situation where there will be no choice but to reduce the size of the classrooms in red areas.” That the number of patients will rise sharply, not to follow the dangerous path of Britain.’

‘Severe cases of pneumonia in adolescents related to the delta variant in the US - among those who haven't been vaccinated. And yet, we've chosen not to offer this option to our children. Of whom 40-50 are being hospitalised daily.’

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417770521513631744?s=21

Anabobazina said:

So being cynical, Labour took one look at the clubbing queues on Sunday night and thought ‘um… that’s our core vote right there…’

And has subsequently opposed clubbing vaxpasses.

Interesting times.

Yet come out in favour of mandatory testing to get into clubs instead which is even more of a hassle for clubbers and more expensive than passports to implement for clubs.

So in essence no difference to the Tories apart from being a different policy to oppose for the sake of it

SandyRentool said:

Switch to GB News...

John Redwood...

Switch back to BBC pronto!

Why would you switch to GB News - what is the point of annoying yourself like that.

Selebian said:

algarkirk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do have to laugh at somebody lecturing others on racism when they endorse a party with an Islamophobia problem.

You shouldn't be so harsh on yourself.....

You make jokes about racism, which is pretty low. The Tories have an Islamophobia problem and you know it.

I think the country as a whole has an islamophobia problem, and that is reflected in ALL political parties, at least at the level of voters. Its tricky, because some evil, probably psychopathic, mentally ill, people have been committing atrocities in the name of Islam and your average person on the street reacts to that. That some elements of the muslim religion seem to want to live separate lives in the UK gets on some peoples wicks. Are all muslims terrorists? Of course not, the vast majority are decent everyday people, but the evil ones end up tarring the rest, no matter how unfair that is.

Its wrong to discriminate against Muslims, but there is a greater threat to society from Islamic extremists than there is the other way around. Same thing all around the globe wherever people adopt extremist religions.

Organised religion is a pox on the globe.

Two things: Remove the issue from Islam for a moment. If in the UK there were, say, 2,000 or even 200 self identifying Methodists who went around blowing people up, organising violence and generally causing mayhem, including killing little girls, then the public at large would have some sort of problem with Methodism as a whole. The BBC and the Guardian would be critically appraisingf the wider issues of what has gone wrong. Think how the history of the IRA and of various prot loonies in NI affect in little way the way people think about the wider cultural and religious communities.

Secondly, the view, I am sure sincerely held, that organised religion is a pox on the globe won't really do. Firstly it is false - just think of those nice sincere decent people running the food banks in their spare time; secondly religion is (in this respect if no other) like sex. It is a naturally occurring phenomenon with some malign effects, some great and indispensable features and is, despite the efforts of those who should know better, ineradicable.

I'm fairly agnostic* on religion, but I'm not that convinced that religion makes people do good things particularly** or bad things particularly. Our local vicar is an astoundingly lovely man and he's at the heart of much that's good in our community, but I don't for a moment think he'd stop doing good things if he had a crisis of faith. Many food banks are not religious, where they are I'd suggest that it's more just a focal point of the community - I've done charity work in collaboration with the local church, but I don't attend and am agnostic/atheist. If we didn't have religion, would another community focus point take the lead? Maybe.

Organised religion has been cover for many bad things, obviously. Maybe it's easier to argue that the Catholic child abuse scandals are due to their policies - would those people be sex offenders if able to marry or publicly enter a same sex relationship, for example - many probably would, but perhaps some would have not taken advantage of vulnerable young people in private if able to have an open sex-life (they of course had a choice to leave the priesthood to do that, too, so I'm not trying to offer any kind of defence here!)

*pun not originally intended, but then I realised and left it in anyway - it's probably still a better word than 'ambivalent'... 'neutral', maybe
** Islam may actually be an exception here, as I believe there is a strong ethic of giving away a percentage of income/wealth (zakat?). Likely also present in other religions, I'm no expert here...

Some people do good and will do good regardless of whether organised religion exists or did not exist.
Some people do bad and will do bad regardless of whether organised religion exists or did not exist.

My big problem with organised religion, and it can be similar to politics, is that it gets people to switch off their critical faculties. People assume that something is right because they know that it is, which makes it much, much harder to shift minds when its actually wrong. Or it becomes a case of 'my side right or wrong' leading to people turning a blind eye to the abuse etc

Drop the organised religion elements and people can do good, but the bad don't have the same space to hide.

not_on_fire said:

DougSeal said:

I think today’s 4% increase from last Wednesday is the smallest week on week daily reported increase we have seen since May. I think.

Could it be the rules for self-isolation etc. are starting to discourage people from getting tested? I get that this is the opposite of the "more tests" argument people try to use to explain rises in cases...

Testing is broadly flat compared to last week.

Gnud said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Boris says it's "common sense" to let people cram into nightclubs for ten weeks before demanding a Covid passport. It's a view.

Just close nightclubs forever FFS. "Changed world" and all that. It's not a huge price to pay. I'm fed up with hearing representatives of "the nightclub industry" say nightclubs should open without restrictions. They would say that, wouldn't they? I'm almost as fed up with them as I am with politicians who imply that nightclubs are what every youngster wants, or that most people's main form of socialisation is going down the pub.

“Not a huge price to pay”. Nice.

CarlottaVance said:

Leon said:

felix said:

MaxPB said:

felix said:

williamglenn said:

I've just been reading about the vaccine situation in Australia. It seems like a complete shambles and they're currently not giving AZ to people under 60 despite having spare domestic production capacity.

What is the latest on vaccoine efficacy for AZT/Moderna/Pfizer, etc. I thought they were all looking good for all the current variants but Leon is semihyper-ventilating about Delta so I wonder if there is some news I've missed.

This is still the most up to date comparative study. Both vaccines come out pretty well against delta. I think the Canadian numbers have also been basically the same but is based on a smaller data set. The Israeli studies are the most interesting because it could point to efficacy decline being more of an issue for delta than we had previously hoped.

Thank you - they seem to be extraordinarily good given the speed of their development. Leon refers to alarm bells about the Delta variant affecting children quite seriously in the US. I'm a little sceptical as it would surely have emerged in other countries already - India/UK/Europe.

Perhaps it has

‘Children’s hospital admissions England only. Yellow - delta variant.’

https://twitter.com/kidscovidgamble/status/1417809284079960072?s=21


NB - I have not checked the source of that graph. Caveat emptor

You’ve got to be very careful with “kids in hospital with COVID” stats - Humza Useless got himself into a pickle over this recently when he made claims about “kids in hospital with COVID” when it turned out that most of them were in hospital for something else and had only tested positive on admission.

A few may even have caught it while they were in hospital.

I recon I’ve got a 25% chance of leaving hospital with an infection I didn’t have when I went in, based on more experience than I’d like…

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

malcolmg said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

UK says it wants to substantially rewrite Northern Ireland Brexit protocol

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/21/uk-substantially-rewrite-northern-ireland-brexit-protocol

Rewriting the Northern Ireland Protocol is in the Never Happening bucket. Which leaves the the UK Government with the options of tearing it up, which it appears not to be willing to do, or stalling.

To the extent I can detect any strategy at all, it is to be so awkward that the other side gives up. It may work up to a point, But at a huge cost. Firstly in the goodwill that is needed to make the rest of the relationship with the EU work and secondly in the damage the lack of a commitment to a solution will do to Northern Ireland, which is a fragile place at the best of times

So what should the UK government do? Implement the Protocol and make the best of it. Once you eliminate the worse alternatives this is where you end up.

They thought it up and signed up to it so they should get on with it. Will soon be next to no trade between UK and NI in any case, they will use easy option and by in Eire.

Is support for Northern Ireland’s place in the union higher or lower in Scotland than in England? Presumably nationalists such as yourself don’t have a strong view either way?

Well imagine the Orange Lodge adherents will want to keep it and Scotland in the union but they are a dwindling bunch of dinosaurs. I personally would think it better to have a united Ireland but it is up to the people of NI/Eire, just as it should be to the people of Scotland to decide what they want at any time of their choosing when there are 50% + 1 wanting the choice.

I think I agree with what you actually mean, although of course if Scotland were to become independent then the people of Scotland wouldn't have the right to re-enter a union with England just because a majority of them wanted to, nor to have their cake and eat it, for example by joining the EU and having a soft land border at the same time - or for that matter to have a soft land border while being outside the EU.

DougSeal said:

Gnud said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Boris says it's "common sense" to let people cram into nightclubs for ten weeks before demanding a Covid passport. It's a view.

Just close nightclubs forever FFS. "Changed world" and all that. It's not a huge price to pay. I'm fed up with hearing representatives of "the nightclub industry" say nightclubs should open without restrictions. They would say that, wouldn't they? I'm almost as fed up with them as I am with politicians who imply that nightclubs are what every youngster wants, or that most people's main form of socialisation is going down the pub.

“Not a huge price to pay”. Nice.

Perhaps Gnud wants to bring back illegal raves in fields.

Gnud said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Boris says it's "common sense" to let people cram into nightclubs for ten weeks before demanding a Covid passport. It's a view.

Just close nightclubs forever FFS. "Changed world" and all that. It's not a huge price to pay. I'm fed up with hearing representatives of "the nightclub industry" say nightclubs should open without restrictions. They would say that, wouldn't they? I'm almost as fed up with them as I am with politicians who imply that nightclubs are what every youngster wants, or that most people's main form of socialisation is going down the pub.

How about we stop the bedwetting authoritarianism and just accept the risk of infectious diseases for which we have both vaccines and treatments...

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

44,104

That was a LOT lower than I expected.

It’s definitely encouraging - if it’s not just a statistical glitch caused by schools closing?

Scotland cases have continued to decline over the last two weeks, so I don't think it's a glitch.

Simply, schools are big vectors for transmission.

You may have been very close with your wild prediction. Kudos, if so. I will eat humble pie and groveling gravy

However I’m finding it hard to reconcile the two strands of data. Cases are plateauing in the UK even as we open up, and yet there’s a new strain of the bug which is horribly infectious and nasty, and we’re still some distance from herd immunity

Does delta just collapse perhaps? Holland is also intriguing

Perhaps Delta is simply running out of people to infect, that is, maybe we're not so far from herd immunity? My lad currently has Covid and at least half of his classmates either have or have had it. I may have caught it off him - I was feeling a bit ropey a few days ago - but won't know until I eventually get the results of my PCR test.

I think we're getting close to this number for what our restrictions were last week. I think this for step 4 we'll probably need another 10% of the population to get COVID antibodies vs the current ca. 80% that have them at the moment. That's another 6.8m first doses or infections in people with no antibodies. The former is impossible and I think the upper limit without 12-17 year olds is about another 4m people getting jabbed under threat of vaccine passports to go to the pub, cinema, restaurant or bar etc... which means another 3m people will need to get it via infection.

Hopefully we reverse the decision not to vaccinate kids because that would be a really easy way to get herd immunity and to protect kids from delta.

Pulpstar said:

Tests are way down this week, the drop could be artefactual - hope it isn't.

Only slightly:

20/07 885k
19/07 1,074k
18/07 1,041k
17/07 784k
16/07 976k

13/07 932k
12/07 1,075k
11/07 1,125k
10/07 743k
09/07 902k

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Fysics_Teacher said:

williamglenn said:

DougSeal said:

Gnud said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Boris says it's "common sense" to let people cram into nightclubs for ten weeks before demanding a Covid passport. It's a view.

Just close nightclubs forever FFS. "Changed world" and all that. It's not a huge price to pay. I'm fed up with hearing representatives of "the nightclub industry" say nightclubs should open without restrictions. They would say that, wouldn't they? I'm almost as fed up with them as I am with politicians who imply that nightclubs are what every youngster wants, or that most people's main form of socialisation is going down the pub.

“Not a huge price to pay”. Nice.

Perhaps Gnud wants to bring back illegal raves in fields.

Anybody over thirty who is personally glad that nightclubs are opening needs to have a long hard look in the mirror.

If you are under thirty, that’s fine: I’m happy for you.

What if you're personally glad for others? While having no intention of going yourself?

I don't want to rob people of another summer.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

So being cynical, Labour took one look at the clubbing queues on Sunday night and thought ‘um… that’s our core vote right there…’

And has subsequently opposed clubbing vaxpasses.

Interesting times.

Yet come out in favour of mandatory testing to get into clubs instead which is even more of a hassle for clubbers and more expensive than passports to implement for clubs.

So in essence no difference to the Tories apart from being a different policy to oppose for the sake of it

Sums up Labour's response to COVID really.

The government should scrape home anyway, it is reported there are up to 42 Tory MPs prepared to rebel against Covid passports, given the governnment has a majority of 80 even if Labour and all other opposition parties vote against the government with the rebels they should win the vote assuming SF do not take their seats to vote against too.

maaarsh said:

Pulpstar said:

Tests are way down this week, the drop could be artefactual - hope it isn't.

885k vs 932k last week is not quite way down.

Ah ye I read back to the 14th for some reason, 21 - 7 = 14. It's the 13th

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

It’s time to finish off the wine cellar

One of the most depressing programmes I saw was the documentary on Dignitas. They interviewed some old bloke with MND who was there to kill himself and was, of course, compos mentis, as you have to be. And his wife, when they were sitting there waiting for the nurse to come in with the deadly cocktail, said something like, you have a lovely wine cellar at home for people to enjoy...

And I thought why not go home that minute, spend another two months drinking the fucking wine cellar yourself then get back to Switzerland if you must.

Perhaps because he was in pain, or because in a few months he might not be compos mentis enough, or physically able, to travel?

We really need to have a strong debate over end-of-life in this country. Thousands of people are suffering when they don't want to suffer. But it is a moral and practical minefield.

Oh definitely. In this case, he didn't seem in pain but he also seemed the type not to show it. It just seemed so agonising.

End of life often is.

As an aside, I'm currently reading Katie Mack's excellent "The end of everything". It's not about how life ends, or the Earth, or even the solar system. It's about how the universe ends. And according to at least one of the competing theories, it could happen at any moment.

When I was a teenager, a book by a Russian physicist (whose name I've annoyingly forgotten) on this subject frightened me intensely. It's only got grimmer - even if most scenarios are billions of years away.

Just think: the end of everything. It's heart-rending. Literally, as your heart gets ripped apart as molecules crack open, nuclei dissipate, and eventually space-time itself is destroyed. (the Big Rip).

https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Everything-Astrophysically-Speaking/dp/024137233X

On a cheerier note, perhaps it's time to start watching Zoolander on loop.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Starmer - "Testing for access to venues would be more efficient, and would give people and businesses more certainty"

More efficient? So either you deep your phone with your vaccine passport....or you have to either take a test prior to going and still have to deep your phone in some way or take a test outside the venue....

Vaccines work, testing doesn't.

Its time to stop testing, not escalate it.

Leon said:

alex_ said:

felix said:

glw said:

Leon said:

"The Delta variant is different," says Dr. Rick Barr of the Arkansas Children's Health System.

"We have 12 children admitted to the hospital now with Covid... they seem to be much sicker. Most of them are teenagers, and a number of them are in the ICU and have Covid pneumonia."

https://twitter.com/cnnnewsroom/status/1417572641884495873?s=21

We have to start vaxing our kids NOW

This is also alarming

‘Virulence of Delta, the evidence

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Compared with the non-variant of concerns

Increases with Delta variant

120% (93-153%) for hospitalization
287% (198-399%) for ICU admission
137% (50-230%) for death.’

‘A significantly larger and more lethal pandemic’

https://twitter.com/rougematisse/status/1417697218291773443?s=21

I'm too hot and tired to ponder the numbers, but all those pauses and restrictions on the use of vaccines back in the spring are looking like particularly stupid decisions now.

I got my second AZT jab last Saturday - I'm 67 and in Spain the 65-69 cohort got left behind while Spain p****d around deciding who not to give AZT to. Delta is now surging in the country and I've no doubt many in my cohort will fall victim to these shenanigens. Hope I will be OK because my area is relatively light on cases. However, it has been a close and concerning shave! About 10 more days before I should be well protected.

These suggestions about how Delta is much more dangerous for children and hence we must vaccinate now and (probably by implication shut schools until this is done). With Leon panicking like it’s March 2020.

I think a bit of perspective here - “much more dangerous to children”, does not by any stretch mean “dangerous to children”

The Israelis disagree with you


‘The Israeli Director General of the Ministry of Health, Prof. Nachman Ash, does not rule out return to school capsules or bubbles. Nachman Ash told Ynet that “we are preparing for a situation where there will be no choice but to reduce the size of the classrooms in red areas.” That the number of patients will rise sharply, not to follow the dangerous path of Britain.’

‘Severe cases of pneumonia in adolescents related to the delta variant in the US - among those who haven't been vaccinated. And yet, we've chosen not to offer this option to our children. Of whom 40-50 are being hospitalised daily.’

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417770521513631744?s=21

I wouldn’t exactly trust your primary source though. She’s not exactly one who can be relied upon to present a balanced view of the evidence and scientific opinion...

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

44,104

That was a LOT lower than I expected.

It’s definitely encouraging - if it’s not just a statistical glitch caused by schools closing?

Scotland cases have continued to decline over the last two weeks, so I don't think it's a glitch.

Simply, schools are big vectors for transmission.

You may have been very close with your wild prediction. Kudos, if so. I will eat humble pie and groveling gravy

However I’m finding it hard to reconcile the two strands of data. Cases are plateauing in the UK even as we open up, and yet there’s a new strain of the bug which is horribly infectious and nasty, and we’re still some distance from herd immunity

Does delta just collapse perhaps? Holland is also intriguing

Perhaps Delta is simply running out of people to infect, that is, maybe we're not so far from herd immunity? My lad currently has Covid and at least half of his classmates either have or have had it. I may have caught it off him - I was feeling a bit ropey a few days ago - but won't know until I eventually get the results of my PCR test.

I think we're getting close to this number for what our restrictions were last week. I think this for step 4 we'll probably need another 10% of the population to get COVID antibodies vs the current ca. 80% that have them at the moment. That's another 6.8m first doses or infections in people with no antibodies. The former is impossible and I think the upper limit without 12-17 year olds is about another 4m people getting jabbed under threat of vaccine passports to go to the pub, cinema, restaurant or bar etc... which means another 3m people will need to get it via infection.

Hopefully we reverse the decision not to vaccinate kids because that would be a really easy way to get herd immunity and to protect kids from delta.

Some doc on Twitter says that our refusal of jabs for kids is simply because of limited supplies

‘They're not mutually exclusive & are both important. If the reason we're not offering doses to children now is lack of supply, we need to be honest about this, rather than saying this is supported by the evidence. Does JCVI have risk-benefit, analysis like this one by the CDC?’

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417868591991492610?s=21

Deepti Gurdasani…‘nuff said.

contrarian said:

Labour has come out against vaccine passports.

I may yet be able to go to a nightclub in October (!).

Really? Finally some opposition from SKS.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

44,104

That was a LOT lower than I expected.

It’s definitely encouraging - if it’s not just a statistical glitch caused by schools closing?

Scotland cases have continued to decline over the last two weeks, so I don't think it's a glitch.

Simply, schools are big vectors for transmission.

You may have been very close with your wild prediction. Kudos, if so. I will eat humble pie and groveling gravy

However I’m finding it hard to reconcile the two strands of data. Cases are plateauing in the UK even as we open up, and yet there’s a new strain of the bug which is horribly infectious and nasty, and we’re still some distance from herd immunity

Does delta just collapse perhaps? Holland is also intriguing

Perhaps Delta is simply running out of people to infect, that is, maybe we're not so far from herd immunity? My lad currently has Covid and at least half of his classmates either have or have had it. I may have caught it off him - I was feeling a bit ropey a few days ago - but won't know until I eventually get the results of my PCR test.

I think we're getting close to this number for what our restrictions were last week. I think this for step 4 we'll probably need another 10% of the population to get COVID antibodies vs the current ca. 80% that have them at the moment. That's another 6.8m first doses or infections in people with no antibodies. The former is impossible and I think the upper limit without 12-17 year olds is about another 4m people getting jabbed under threat of vaccine passports to go to the pub, cinema, restaurant or bar etc... which means another 3m people will need to get it via infection.

Hopefully we reverse the decision not to vaccinate kids because that would be a really easy way to get herd immunity and to protect kids from delta.

Some doc on Twitter says that our refusal of jabs for kids is simply because of limited supplies

‘They're not mutually exclusive & are both important. If the reason we're not offering doses to children now is lack of supply, we need to be honest about this, rather than saying this is supported by the evidence. Does JCVI have risk-benefit, analysis like this one by the CDC?’

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417868591991492610?s=21

If supply is a problem, let's just do what we can. 16/17 year olds first.

kjh said:

NerysHughes said:

kinabalu said:

NerysHughes said:

kinabalu said:

NerysHughes said:

kinabalu said:

ridaligo said:

On the Marcus Rashford thing, here's my (admittedly cynical take).

He's taken up social causes that are easy to support and difficult to challenge in order to build his brand - Saint Marcus the champion of the underprivileged, squeaky clean, future Knight of the Realm.

That his people have come out swinging with a pre-emptive strike against the Spectator is telling - get your retaliation in first, frame the narrative. The Luvvies are already circling the wagons in defence of Marcus (I'm looking at you BBC and your front page puff piece).

But that statement from the Rashford camp is very carefully worded, as some on here have noted. He doesn't "need" to partner with brands ... well no-one does, do they, unless they want them to pay for stuff. And "most" of any fees goes to the good good causes. Hmmm.

Brand building doesn't come cheap ... staffers to pay, "operating expenses" and so on.

Yes, I'm an old cynic, but the Spectator is right to shine a light on this.

On a related point, I'm amazed that there hasn't been more of an expose of footballer tax affairs given the public's appetite for taking the super rich down a peg or two. How much of Rashford's £10m salary finds it's way to the HMRC? If I were earning that amount I'd only see, what, £6m of it under PAYE and the rest would go to Rishi (but then I'm not a tax accountant).

I see. So this multi-millionaire young black sports star from an impecunious background has decided to campaign against child food poverty not because he's genuinely concerned about child food poverty but in order to boost his personal brand and make himself even more rich and famous than he already is. Such a take is not "cynicism". It's something else entirely. Something putrid.

It's also devoid of logic. Like, the 'evidence' for this is that the cause he selected is soft and cuddly and almost impossible to oppose. Implication - in order to show he isn't doing it for brand building reasons, he ought to be campaigning for hardcore divisive stuff. Defund the police perhaps. Then you'd be 100% behind him, right? No sniping from you then? I should cocoa.

He has a vast personal fortune, money he does not need, why not give 50% of that to the poorer people of Manchester if he is that concerned about them? Now that would be good.

That's a VERY high bar you're setting to earn your approval when it comes to young black footballers from working class backgrounds campaigning for government action to end child food poverty. Perhaps some sweet day one of them will manage to clear it. I wonder what you'll use then as a reason to snipe? Will you be able to come up with something new and creative? I say yes. My money's on you to rise to the challenge.

A high bar?? He will be left with £25 million plus earning a million a month. How will he cope?

So a wealthy person can't campaign for government to spend more money on something unless they cough up a chunk of their own.

That effectively means rich people must shut up about politics unless they're campaigning for lower tax and spending cuts.

If you can't see what a nonsense that is, I can't help you.

I think the term "put your money where your mouth is" comes to mind.

Im afraid that if a extremely rich person is campaigning for the Government to spend taxpayers money on some cause then they should donate a decent wedge to that cause.

He has 8 houses, does he need 8 houses? There are numerous poor people in Manchester living in run down over crowded conditions. Why not give away some of these houses?

I don't think I have ever seen such a load of spiteful and envious posts before here. Assumptions made that he is a tax fiddler and doesn't donate his own money based on no evidence provided whatsoever. In the grand scheme of things I know who gets my vote as a decent human being and Rashford beats you hands down. You should be embarrassed to post such stuff.

Too right. Welcome back btw. Been on a PB break, I believe.

https://twitter.com/JeremyClarkson/status/1417775596566990848?s=20

Am deelirhterd tuh seirhethu reahtuourn ourwf maih fewivourhiriwight TV show haha hehhehah

https://twitter.com/MrC4meron/status/1417776413172719617?s=20

SandyRentool said:

Switch to GB News...

John Redwood...

Switch back to BBC pronto!

If you never want to hear any right-of-centre views, you did the right thing.

Labour would introduce mandatory testing now for entry to nightclubs, not delay until September

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1417872566790901774?s=20

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

Revealed: The Scottish government is now one of the biggest media operations in the country after spending millions on an expanding cohort of press officers.

https://twitter.com/magnusllewellin/status/1417367812356648963?s=20

Which country is that then?

According to figures released to The Times, there are 54.9 full-time equivalent (FTE) frontline media roles in the government. That is an increase of 42 per cent compared with the 38.6 FTE jobs in 2016-17.

As the government’s press operation has swollen, cutbacks have taken place across most of the Scottish media. The BBC has 34 reporters — 17 for general news and 17 specialist correspondents — meaning even the publicly funded broadcasters have fewer people asking questions than the government has to answer them.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mucormycosis, a rare and deadly infection known as "black fungus", has killed more than 4,300 people in India, the health ministry has reported.

The country has recorded 45,374 cases of the illness. Doctors say the fungus has a link with the steroids used to treat Covid, and diabetics are at particular risk.

But the scale of the problem could be even greater. Dr Raghuraj Hegde, a Bangalore-based eye surgeon who has treated a number of mucormycosis patients, told the BBC that there had been "massive undercounting of both cases and deaths" from the disease.

"Typically, deaths in mucormycosis occur weeks to months after getting the disease. Our present systems are not good to capture that data," he said.

---

There was a report the other day that said Indian deaths might be as high as x10 the official figure, so 4+ million.

Yes, it appears that it's hammering people who previously had Covid. Not good.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Priti Patel and Boris Johnson say they're going to take action wrt the channel crossings, but nothing actually happens. Are they in charge or not?

We are doing something. We're going to pay the French to discourage them from setting off fro France.

Which is probably the most effective thing we can do.

So on one hand we are paying the french to patrol their shores and discourage people from leaving while at the same time the French do everything they can to discourage those same people to remain in France.

How exactly does that work out?

Fysics_Teacher said:

williamglenn said:

DougSeal said:

Gnud said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Boris says it's "common sense" to let people cram into nightclubs for ten weeks before demanding a Covid passport. It's a view.

Just close nightclubs forever FFS. "Changed world" and all that. It's not a huge price to pay. I'm fed up with hearing representatives of "the nightclub industry" say nightclubs should open without restrictions. They would say that, wouldn't they? I'm almost as fed up with them as I am with politicians who imply that nightclubs are what every youngster wants, or that most people's main form of socialisation is going down the pub.

“Not a huge price to pay”. Nice.

Perhaps Gnud wants to bring back illegal raves in fields.

Anybody over thirty who is personally glad that nightclubs are opening needs to have a long hard look in the mirror.

If you are under thirty, that’s fine: I’m happy for you.

31-year-olds don’t go to clubs?

Hameed 92 not out....drop the Dom for the test matches....

FrancisUrquhart said:

Starmer - "Testing for access to venues would be more efficient, and would give people and businesses more certainty"

More efficient? So either you deep your phone with your vaccine passport....or you have to either take a test prior to going and still have to deep your phone in some way or take a test outside the venue....

And nightclubs, it is bad enough policing vaccine passport, but having to be messing around with whose tested, whose not, etc....that isn't more efficient, that's even more hassle.

That's complete nonsense from Kier. Every time I do an LFT as well as the time it takes to do, and then log the result, there is a 30 minute wait for it to work. Does he even know what the testing involves? It doesn't sound like it.

HYUFD said:

Labour would introduce mandatory testing now for entry to nightclubs, not delay until September

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1417872566790901774?s=20

A negative test doesn't mean you don't have covid.

Barnesian said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

It’s time to finish off the wine cellar

One of the most depressing programmes I saw was the documentary on Dignitas. They interviewed some old bloke with MND who was there to kill himself and was, of course, compos mentis, as you have to be. And his wife, when they were sitting there waiting for the nurse to come in with the deadly cocktail, said something like, you have a lovely wine cellar at home for people to enjoy...

And I thought why not go home that minute, spend another two months drinking the fucking wine cellar yourself then get back to Switzerland if you must.

Perhaps because he was in pain, or because in a few months he might not be compos mentis enough, or physically able, to travel?

We really need to have a strong debate over end-of-life in this country. Thousands of people are suffering when they don't want to suffer. But it is a moral and practical minefield.

Oh definitely. In this case, he didn't seem in pain but he also seemed the type not to show it. It just seemed so agonising.

End of life often is.

As an aside, I'm currently reading Katie Mack's excellent "The end of everything". It's not about how life ends, or the Earth, or even the solar system. It's about how the universe ends. And according to at least one of the competing theories, it could happen at any moment.

When I was a teenager, a book by a Russian physicist (whose name I've annoyingly forgotten) on this subject frightened me intensely. It's only got grimmer - even if most scenarios are billions of years away.

Just think: the end of everything. It's heart-rending. Literally, as your heart gets ripped apart as molecules crack open, nuclei dissipate, and eventually space-time itself is destroyed. (the Big Rip).

https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Everything-Astrophysically-Speaking/dp/024137233X

I have a theory that we are in a simulation run by a very advanced technology that looks to us very like God - omniscient, omnipotent, but crucially not benevolent.

Recently I have come to the conclusion that this simulation is actually being run by a bored six year old in this very advanced civilisation, who has recently pressed the "disaster" option just for kicks. But when she gets bored, or it's bedtime, she'll simply switch it off.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/confirmed-we-live-in-a-simulation/

Interesting article that suggest the evidence that we live in a simulation is provided by the limit on the speed of light.

What about E = mc^2 though? If the speed of light were infinite, then you'd need an infinite amount of energy to create any mass, so stuff couldn't exist.

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Keir Starmer will now be told off for "playing politics".

But absolutely right to oppose this stupid idea

His replacement idea is worse, though. He's suggested testing passports instead of vaccine passports. If I had to choose one or the other I'd absolutely prefer vaccine passports as I loathe sticking the swab up my nose and it would rely on trusting people to actually do the test. I can open up a LFT, register it as negative without doing it and it would show up on the NHS app as green for entry to events.

The only way to police a testing based passport is to have testing on site which will mean 20 minute waiting times to enter a venue, now multiply that by 60,000 fans going to watch Spurs vs Arsenal.

You don't even need to open a test up....

Barnesian said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

It’s time to finish off the wine cellar

One of the most depressing programmes I saw was the documentary on Dignitas. They interviewed some old bloke with MND who was there to kill himself and was, of course, compos mentis, as you have to be. And his wife, when they were sitting there waiting for the nurse to come in with the deadly cocktail, said something like, you have a lovely wine cellar at home for people to enjoy...

And I thought why not go home that minute, spend another two months drinking the fucking wine cellar yourself then get back to Switzerland if you must.

Perhaps because he was in pain, or because in a few months he might not be compos mentis enough, or physically able, to travel?

We really need to have a strong debate over end-of-life in this country. Thousands of people are suffering when they don't want to suffer. But it is a moral and practical minefield.

Oh definitely. In this case, he didn't seem in pain but he also seemed the type not to show it. It just seemed so agonising.

End of life often is.

As an aside, I'm currently reading Katie Mack's excellent "The end of everything". It's not about how life ends, or the Earth, or even the solar system. It's about how the universe ends. And according to at least one of the competing theories, it could happen at any moment.

When I was a teenager, a book by a Russian physicist (whose name I've annoyingly forgotten) on this subject frightened me intensely. It's only got grimmer - even if most scenarios are billions of years away.

Just think: the end of everything. It's heart-rending. Literally, as your heart gets ripped apart as molecules crack open, nuclei dissipate, and eventually space-time itself is destroyed. (the Big Rip).

https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Everything-Astrophysically-Speaking/dp/024137233X

I have a theory that we are in a simulation run by a very advanced technology that looks to us very like God - omniscient, omnipotent, but crucially not benevolent.

Recently I have come to the conclusion that this simulation is actually being run by a bored six year old in this very advanced civilisation, who has recently pressed the "disaster" option just for kicks. But when she gets bored, or it's bedtime, she'll simply switch it off.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/confirmed-we-live-in-a-simulation/

Interesting article that suggest the evidence that we live in a simulation is provided by the limit on the speed of light.

"We must never doubt Elon Musk again"

Dated 1st April.

Figures.

.

Fysics_Teacher said:

SKS self-isolating…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57918823

Not important enough to be hand-picked by Boris for a new non-self-isolating pilot scheme for important people though, was he?

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Labour would introduce mandatory testing now for entry to nightclubs, not delay until September

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1417872566790901774?s=20

A negative test doesn't mean you don't have covid.

I would be interested to know the accuracy of LFTs. As administered by the people.

Anecdotally it is pretty poor. Or the administration of the test is poor. Whichever, plenty of LFTs said negative, PCR said positive stories.

Barnesian said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

It’s time to finish off the wine cellar

One of the most depressing programmes I saw was the documentary on Dignitas. They interviewed some old bloke with MND who was there to kill himself and was, of course, compos mentis, as you have to be. And his wife, when they were sitting there waiting for the nurse to come in with the deadly cocktail, said something like, you have a lovely wine cellar at home for people to enjoy...

And I thought why not go home that minute, spend another two months drinking the fucking wine cellar yourself then get back to Switzerland if you must.

Perhaps because he was in pain, or because in a few months he might not be compos mentis enough, or physically able, to travel?

We really need to have a strong debate over end-of-life in this country. Thousands of people are suffering when they don't want to suffer. But it is a moral and practical minefield.

Oh definitely. In this case, he didn't seem in pain but he also seemed the type not to show it. It just seemed so agonising.

End of life often is.

As an aside, I'm currently reading Katie Mack's excellent "The end of everything". It's not about how life ends, or the Earth, or even the solar system. It's about how the universe ends. And according to at least one of the competing theories, it could happen at any moment.

When I was a teenager, a book by a Russian physicist (whose name I've annoyingly forgotten) on this subject frightened me intensely. It's only got grimmer - even if most scenarios are billions of years away.

Just think: the end of everything. It's heart-rending. Literally, as your heart gets ripped apart as molecules crack open, nuclei dissipate, and eventually space-time itself is destroyed. (the Big Rip).

https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Everything-Astrophysically-Speaking/dp/024137233X

I have a theory that we are in a simulation run by a very advanced technology that looks to us very like God - omniscient, omnipotent, but crucially not benevolent.

Recently I have come to the conclusion that this simulation is actually being run by a bored six year old in this very advanced civilisation, who has recently pressed the "disaster" option just for kicks. But when she gets bored, or it's bedtime, she'll simply switch it off.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/confirmed-we-live-in-a-simulation/

Interesting article that suggest the evidence that we live in a simulation is provided by the limit on the speed of light.

Perhaps it is being run by the advanced being equivalent of Leon and they've just raided the wine cellar.


I thought the correct answer was that Entropy Wins. (Statistically speaking). So everything must end up in a uniform state, forever unchanging.

Mexicanpete said:

.

Fysics_Teacher said:

SKS self-isolating…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57918823

Not important enough to be hand-picked by Boris for a new non-self-isolating pilot scheme for important people though, was he?

How would anyone know if SKS is self isolating?

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Labour would introduce mandatory testing now for entry to nightclubs, not delay until September

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1417872566790901774?s=20

A negative test doesn't mean you don't have covid.

I would be interested to know the accuracy of LFTs. As administered by the people.

Anecdotally it is pretty poor. Or the administration of the test is poor. Whichever, plenty of LFTs said negative, PCR said positive stories.

Is that a Rangers gag?