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BoJo’s Tories are arguably more vulnerable to the LDs at the next election than LAB – politicalbetti
BoJo’s Tories are arguably more vulnerable to the LDs at the next election than LAB – politicalbetting.com
Thanks to the excellent Election Maps site for the list of LD targets. It has produced charts like the above for all the parties based on what happened at GE2019.
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Who is the we?
The PB Herd becomes the PB Drove.
5. Rest of planet breathes a sigh of relief that the infants have had their toy drum removed.
I'm currently on holiday but I took a call from an old friend who moves in these circles.
Says Cummings is concentrating on wiping out Johnson and Sunak (whom he recently gave the kiss of death) and others.
Gove is clearing the decks, hence the divorce, expect a few other revelations before conference season.
Gove is more of a committed Unionist than he is a Brexiteer, he doesn't want to be remembered as the midwife of Scottish independence.
It is no coincidence that Cummings was Gove's consigliere.
The talk of replacing/ousting Johnson after the 2019 GE was reminiscent of Gove taking out Johnson after winning the referendum of 2016.
Now back to my holiday and sweating like a 70s DJ in a police station.
I can see Scotland ending up in the same position for similar reasons.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap
Is Johnson being rated at Minus 44% with them a swing from the last General Election, or is it already baked into the pre-existing figures?
I'm not saying that's a bad strategy, just difficult to execute in a national election.
Well it's a plan but not one I would be implementing - I can just see too many ways in which Indy wins.
It would need an independent currency which means balancing it's books and I dread to think what the Scottish budget deficit looks like.
On the list of things that keep the RotW awake at night, the UK's possession of nuclear weapons figures very low indeed.
..
But "joyous & civic" (sic) Scottish Nationalism is so much better than anyone else's nationalism...
Michael Gove is a genius. He’s world champ in 5D chess. He’ll win IndyRef2 easy peasy. Now, where does he get hold of Anas and Cole-Hamilton for the first BetterTogether2 photie?
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1417780226755604482?s=20
The question is which way will the smaller parties lean in the event of a minority government? Suspect there is far more chance they would vote with a minority Labour government than a minority Tory one.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
Long answers for everything except about Boris which went
Baroness Suttie (Lib Dem) asked him how important it was for the PM to “play a full and active role” in dealing with the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Very, followed by Yes and Very when pushed further.
https://www.eetimes.com/helion-energy-achieves-key-fusion-milestone/
At first glance, it looks considerably more practicable than others approaches.
If we’re leaving the UK, you can keep your own debt.
The interview wouldn't have been much different had he written the questions himself.
The transcript is here.
The key ideas of the "we" are twofold:
*******************
* there's a genetic super-elite
* the genetic super-elite are super-needed, because humanity is at high risk of super-trouble.
*******************
On the risk of super-trouble, see the Global Challenges Foundation, the Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford, connected to the Centre for Effective Altruism), the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (Cambridge), etc.
Mostly the "EA" scene is composed of young male turds who believe that many previously unsolved problems can be solved in the blink of an eye by brilliant geniuses such as themselves, and who are so busy at their keyboards they rarely even see daylight, let alone attract any female interest, plus a small number of older men who manage to arrange lucrative pop-sci book contracts having crafted some buzzphrases and then spread them around at dinner parties. Closer to the core are a few billionaires who love hearing that "some people alive now" will live forever or at least for another 500 or 1000 years. See people like Laszlo Szombatfalvy and Peter Thiel.
I shall read Toby Ord's book "Precipice" in which he says there's a 1 in 6 chance that human society will fall off a cliff before 2100, mainly because I'm intrigued as to what preparations might be being made by certain insane billionaires for "if it happens". The concept of "existential risk" has been crafted to allow for the possible survival of a few. Their plans for "bugging out" will be very different from those of most "preppers".
As for PM Gove, as Jim Hacker's Chief Whip put it- who is suitable for the job? The only way to find out is to suck it and see.
The whole Lib Dem campaign was attuned in 2019 to mitigating or even reversing the disastrous Boris policy of leaving the EU, with no idea of the consequences or plans for dealing with the problems. Whether this particular line will be so prominent next time I do not know. I do not think it was so in the two recent byelections.
What really did for the Tories in these bye-elections, in addition to the incompetence and corruption, was the impression that Boris and his gang were arrogant authoritarians who did not pay any attention to the needs and aspirations of local people. It is very hard to see how the Tories can reverse this impression, except by clearing out the present Cabinet. Including Gove, of course.
Personally I would be very happy with PM Gove, have met him once and he is very polite and probably the most intelligent and articulate Cabinet minister but unfortunately he has to get past the voters and they have decided they don't like him. Labour would be cuck a hoop if Gove not Sunak replaced Boris as PM
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/3326218/michael-gove-ill-be-enjoying-my-retirement-before-indyref2/
By fiddling the rules because The European Project is spiritually and emotionally incomplete without them.
Kuenssberg is such a f***ing patsy. Otherwise she would have asked questions such as
"What positions are your 'few dozen' in already?"
"Do you have anyone in the cabinet for example?
"Are you all British?"
English antibody prevalence estimates from the ONS
Week beginning May 3: 75.9%
Week beginning May 17: 80.3%
Week beginning June 7: 86.6%
Week beginning June 14: 89.8%
Week beginning June 28: 91.9%
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1417785998222692354?s=20
https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1417787390438092802?s=20
Only a Tory vote can possibly deliver a majority government.
This will shore up the centre right vote.
No other configuration of possible government is stable.
Consequences for LDs:
They need to clarify three areas of policy
1) How to build millions of houses everywhere except next to whoever they are speaking to while enabling your children to buy a house in the village.
2) Where do they stand in relation to support for Labour when the SNP's support is also needed - in particular about Ref2.
3) What is their medium/long term Brexit policy, and which bits are non negotiable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-54325592
Liverpool has been stripped of its World Heritage status because of developments on the city's waterfront. The decision was made following a secret ballot by the Unesco committee at a meeting in China. Unesco had previously warned that the developments, which include Everton FC's new stadium, had resulted in "irreversible loss of attributes". The decision was described as "incomprehensible" by Liverpool Mayor Joanne Anderson."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57879475
Apart from that, the biggest hitter the anti-Johnson Tories have is Mrs May.
The problem that the Conservatives have is quite simply that they do not have anybody who could replace Johnson. They are all contaminated or too feeble.
1) Brownfield sites need to be fully exploited, and including allowing the building of homes in former retail areas which are now just charity shop jungles
2) All suppoirt for other parties must only extend to S+C, (i think it's called), until a proper PR system is introduced
3) Brexit has happened, so there doesn't need to be a policy on that. What we now need is a renegotiated Customs/Trade/ freedom of movement system.
But separatists don't give a toss about any of that. All they want is their "freedom". They know they're better than England any day of the week. And anyone who thinks otherwise has either been brainwashed by fake news from the "London media", or else they're an English b*stard to start with. That's the true mentality of Scottish separatists.
Its now very clear which seats are in play, we have a lot of seats where we have momentum in 2nd place. The internal party investigation into 2019 (described as a "high speed car crash") has learned lessons and made changes. So yes, I have high hopes that this time we can rebuild lost seats where the Tories are under threat.
Questions to puzzle over would include these: If poshness and education are enough for LDs to come close why are seats like Arundel so Tory and the LDs so distant?
Whatever the answer is - and I think the question is significant - I think there are a very finite number of seats which LDs can aspire to.
It is also possible that when the next election comes the options will be stark: You are voting for two possibilities only, a Tory majority government or an unknown form of centre left alliance in which Lab, LD, Green and SNP are essential to its working.
It is not yet clear that the good people of, say, Wokingham, will certainly prefer the Burgon/Pidcock/Sturgeon/Davey/tree hugging alliance to John Redwood. That will be their choice.
Just putting it out there, don't shoot the messenger please...
Of course, the Scot Nats could bring down the government if they chose - as they did before - and put in a Tory government. But that did not work out well for the country last time, and I have no doubt it would be equally disastrous next time round, both for the country and the SNP. So I do not see that as being on the cards.
Voting Lib Dem next time is the best way of keeping out the extremists, at both extremes.
On algarkirk's hypothesis, for all the doubts about Starmer's positive ideas, few people will feel he's going to be a puppet of Burgon and Pidcock (if they've even heard of them). Is a possible post-election understanding with Sturgeon going to seem very terrifying in Wokingham? Will voters there care much about that? As for tree-huggers, lots of wealthy folk are quite open to a bit of greenery.
In more cutting off nose to spite face news..
Someone 'interesting' seems considerably less important today than someone sane.
Just One. It's all in asking.
Much more vulnerable are the Tory seats in Sussex surrounding Brighton, as house prices in Brighton send many liberals/lefties scurrying to Shoreham, Worthing etc. to the west and smaller coastal towns to the east. Lewes is also likely to be regained from the Tories next time round.
Hence you can use the Euro criteria as part of the EU membership criteria.
But look at the (relative) scale of the thing - the energy fluxes are much smaller than conventional fusion approaches, a great deal of the energy is being extracted directly as electricity, and the engineering challenges ought therefore to be significantly less.
It's still going to take quite some time to be a workable product, but it's not quite so much an impossible dream.