Don't see Portillo's intervention having quite the same impact as Nigel Lawson's but it is a drip, drip effect.
Despite his euroscepticism Portillo was a proto-Cameron. Few have cheered louder for the modernisation agenda Cammie embarked on than Portillo has. He would have done the same if he had the chance. That points to Europe eclipsing Cammies detox project for him and no doubt some MPs will take notice of this.
It's getting dangerously close to the tory party beginning to put their cards on the table on IN and OUT.
I also have to say that I find it amusing, if not as hilarious as Mick seems to find everything, that Osborne's intervention into the Independence debate which was so scorned seems to have had such an effect.
None of the options being put forward by the SNP for the currency are remotely credible.
Firstly, the assert as a matter of right that they are entitled to some sort of currency union with rUK. Osborne points out (a) that there is no such right (b) as an independent country they cannot expect to have influence on the economic decisions of the 58m Scotland have chosen to leave and (c) tellingly, it would require a referendum of rUK to agree to such a relationship. So completely uncertain.
The alternative, promoted by idiots like Blanchflower (how is the 5m unemployed going Dave?), is that Scotland will just use the pound anyway, like Panama using the dollar. But that means no central bank, no lender of last resort and no support for the very important Scottish financial services industry. My understanding is that Panama's financial sector is rather more, shall we say cash driven? In such a scenario the risk to thousands and thousands of Scottish jobs in Edinburgh in particular would be huge as large financial institutions reregsiter in England taking a chunk of tax base with them.
People point to Eire as an example but again Eire did not at that time have a significant financial sector, indeed the incredible boom and bust in their financial sector really only got going with the euro. The risks to the a key part of the Scottish economy are real.
The SNP would have been better going for their own currency. That would have been a more credible position, even if the intention was to tie it to the pound 1:1 in the short term. As it is they seem to have got themselves in rather a hole as Osborne pointed out.
He claims to have seen them, I'd like him to link to them. My money would usually be on Scott not understanding what he posts but on this occasion he seems confident
Surprised you are having trouble tim. They are in all the major papers, right under the leading "Osborne cries at funeral" articles headlining the media narrative.
I also have to say that I find it amusing, if not as hilarious as Mick seems to find everything, that Osborne's intervention into the Independence debate which was so scorned seems to have had such an effect.
None of the options being put forward by the SNP for the currency are remotely credible.
Firstly, the assert as a matter of right that they are entitled to some sort of currency union with rUK. Osborne points out (a) that there is no such right (b) as an independent country they cannot expect to have influence on the economic decisions of the 58m Scotland have chosen to leave and (c) tellingly, it would require a referendum of rUK to agree to such a relationship. So completely uncertain.
The alternative, promoted by idiots like Blanchflower (how is the 5m unemployed going Dave?), is that Scotland will just use the pound anyway, like Panama using the dollar. But that means no central bank, no lender of last resort and no support for the very important Scottish financial services industry. My understanding is that Panama's financial sector is rather more, shall we say cash driven? In such a scenario the risk to thousands and thousands of Scottish jobs in Edinburgh in particular would be huge as large financial institutions reregsiter in England taking a chunk of tax base with them.
People point to Eire as an example but again Eire did not at that time have a significant financial sector, indeed the incredible boom and bust in their financial sector really only got going with the euro. The risks to the a key part of the Scottish economy are real. The SNP would have been better going for their own currency. That would have been a more credible position, even if the intention was to tie it to the pound 1:1 in the short term. As it is they seem to have got themselves in rather a hole as Osborne pointed out.
The currency argument seems to have the nats on the backfoot, most Scots don't want to change currency and as you rightly point out being in a currency Union outside a political union is the worst of all worlds.
Mr. L, that would be a massive change. If the Conservatives won the next election (unlikely as it is) that would mean any such referendum would not see a backbench/frontbench split and Out would have the entirety (excluding Ken Clarke) of a major political party on its side.
The EU is an enormous missed opportunity.
I quite agree. It is immensely frustrating that the statist, corporarist mind set has been so dominant in the EU. I blame de Gaulle keeping us out in the 1960s. By the time we got in the mould had been set and we have been railing against it ineffectually ever since.
An EU that played to the strengths of it distinct cultures and genuinely valued them providing a level playing field of rules and market opportunities could have been a great force for good in the world as well as very good for us. Unfortunately, unless the euro breaks up and such a body rises from those ashes, I fear it is too late.
I also have to say that I find it amusing, if not as hilarious as Mick seems to find everything, that Osborne's intervention into the Independence debate which was so scorned seems to have had such an effect.
So why aren't you demanding he be sent to scotland to posture again? I think we all know the answer to that one thanks.
When you finally work out whether the leader of your party supports IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron referendum (his own MPs don't believe him on) I might start to take your AAA Osbrowne currency scaremongering seriously.
In case you didn't notice the toxic Osbrowne is primarily responsible for the labour lead and the only reason he is still in a job is that he's Cammie's close chum. In the chumocracy that beats competence every time.
The only way you beat back the UKIP threat is on economic competence and you aren't getting that back with omnishambles Osbrowne as chancellor.
Don't see Portillo's intervention having quite the same impact as Nigel Lawson's but it is a drip, drip effect.
Despite his euroscepticism Portillo was a proto-Cameron. Few have cheered louder for the modernisation agenda Cammie embarked on than Portillo has. He would have done the same if he had the chance. That points to Europe eclipsing Cammies detox project for him and no doubt some MPs will take notice of this.
It's getting dangerously close to the tory party beginning to put their cards on the table on IN and OUT.
FPT Mike L shows how out of touch with ordinary people the Cameron cheerleaders are:
"Do you really think a retired homeowner contemplating Miliband grabbing say £150,000 tax on their modest home is going to be more concerned about "chumocracy" nonsense?
Grow up, get real, get in touch with ordinary people, not childish PB anorak nonsense."
Do the cheerleaders have any idea what the value of the average home is ? Let alone a 'modest' ie below average home ? Let alone the value of a home lived in by swing voters in swing seats in the midlands, north and Wales ?
Perhaps this threat of a Miliband tax grab - which I've never heard about - is causing terror to Conservative voters in Surrey and Chelsea. In which case there wont be much chance of Labour gains in Surrey and Chelsea in 2015 but I don't think EdM will be too concerned about that.
Looking at the entrails of this poll, the number of 2010 LDs supporting Labour is now down to "only" 27%, the lowest for a long time. Some of this support has leaked back to the LDs and some has gone to UKIP.
I also have to say that I find it amusing, if not as hilarious as Mick seems to find everything, that Osborne's intervention into the Independence debate which was so scorned seems to have had such an effect.
So why aren't you demanding he be sent to scotland to posture again? I think we all know the answer to that one thanks.
When you finally work out whether the leader of your party supports IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron referendum (his own MPs don't believe him on) I might start to take your AAA Osbrowne currency scaremongering seriously.
In case you didn't notice the toxic Osbrowne is primarily responsible for the labour lead and the only reason he is still in a job is that he's Cammie's close chum. In the chumocracy that beats competence every time.
The only way you beat back the UKIP threat is on economic competence and you aren't getting that back with omnishambles Osbrowne as chancellor.
Mick, personal attacks on Osborne are not an answer to the argument. Do you have one? If so you'd better tell Alex quick.
Mr. P, it'd be interesting to know if women are more likely to vote In during an EU referendum and whether they backed FPTP. I would guess that women are slightly but significantly (in statistical terms) more risk averse than men.
On that note, a woman whose name/job I forget (sorry, whoever you are) recently said as much about women drivers trying to get into F1. Namely, they'll almost always have more of a sense of self-preservation than a man in the same position and brake a tiny bit earlier. However, in an F1 car that tiny bit is a huge difference.
I honestly don't believe that; it's just a massive generalisation. For one thing it misrepresents braking in motorsports; drivers have very different braking spots and lines. It's the difference between a Button/Prost style driver and a Hamilton/Senna style.
One of the problems for women in motorsports is funding. Take Sarah Moore, a brilliantly fast driver who won the Ginetta Juniors championship in 2009. She's sitting out this year due to a lack of funding. What you need nowadays are really rich parents, or to get the eye of one of the major F1/F3 teams at a young age. But anecdotes such as the above hardly help them.
The atmosphere at the tracks in the junior formulae can also be very anti-woman. This is getting better, but there are some awful stories from just a few years ago. Some very promising young girls - or more accurate their families - are put off racing by the atmosphere.
I want women in F1. They could do just as well as men given the same chance.
" My understanding is that Panama's financial sector is rather more, shall we say cash driven?"
In many parts of Central America, Caribbean and South America, cash is king (any cash will do) as parts of their economy rely on a laundering service for cash-rich people.
Mick, personal attacks on Osborne are not an answer to the argument.
You appear to be under the illusion that any of this is new. It isn't. We had the exact same variation on "too poor, too wee and too stupid" parroted by Iain Gray in the 2011 scottish election using economic scaremongering arguments. Didn't turn out too well for SLAB as it went.
You don't seem to understand that all economic arguments come down to trust during a campaign with so much rubbish and conflicting opinions flying about. Same thing will happen at the GE in case you didn't realise it.
The NO campaign think Osbrowne and Darling are the men to trust on matters economic. You don't perhaps see a slight flaw in their plan? No matter. When the scottish public do start to engage in the campaign they shall be reminded of that flaw.
Lest you think that little Ed and labour are master strategists when it comes to matters scottish and will save the day, you may find this amusing.
Ed Balls: So far it is 3-0 to Iain Gray's Labour in Scottish elections... I want the 4th goal against the Nats
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls is heading to Scotland today - and donning the jersey for Iain Gray's team.
I quite agree. It is immensely frustrating that the statist, corporarist mind set has been so dominant in the EU. I blame de Gaulle keeping us out in the 1960s. By the time we got in the mould had been set and we have been railing against it ineffectually ever since.
The UK of the 60s and early 70s would hardly have shifted the balance against statism.
another non story from Smithson, yougov's figures are no different to any other if you take into consideration the margin of error. Stop trying to make the news and trying to influence people
"Our latest poll for The Times finds that support for Scotland remaining part of the UK has increased to its highest level since August 2011.
Among those certain to vote, 59% would vote 'No', up four points since February, while 31% would vote 'Yes', down three points. One in ten Scots are undecided, down a point.
With the exception of a bounce following the SNP’s election victory in 2011, support for independence continues to hover between 30% and 35%, which is in line with the historical average recorded by Ipsos MORI over the last three and a half decades."
The other interesting split from the tabs is seperation is more favoured by DEs than ABs. Given that ABs are more likely to vote than DEs it adds another factor to the mix. Does SNP activism overcome the sit a home factor when it comes to turnout ?
Mick, personal attacks on Osborne are not an answer to the argument.
You appear to be under the illusion that any of this is new. It isn't. We had the exact same variation on "too poor, too wee and too stupid" parroted by Iain Gray in the 2011 scottish election using economic scaremongering arguments. Didn't turn out too well for SLAB as it went.
You don't seem to understand that all economic arguments come down to trust during a campaign with so much rubbish and conflicting opinions flying about. Same thing will happen at the GE in case you didn't realise it.
The NO campaign think Osbrowne and Darling are the men to trust on matters economic. You don't perhaps see a slight flaw in their plan? No matter. When the scottish public do start to engage in the campaign they shall be reminded of that flaw.
Lest you think that little Ed and labour are master strategists when it comes to matters scottish and will save the day, you may find this amusing.
Ed Balls: So far it is 3-0 to Iain Gray's Labour in Scottish elections... I want the 4th goal against the Nats
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls is heading to Scotland today - and donning the jersey for Iain Gray's team.
The SNP arnd Yes campaign are running a cunning plan. Trail hoplessly in the poles by a margain of two to one, mount feeble and incoherent responses to legitimate concerns, then when they have lulled the Unionists into a false sense of security will ambush them with Claymores.
Either that or they are as hopeless and witless as the Scottish football team trying to qualify for a world cup.
It's a funny Clegg-asm type period we're in - Ukip bask in the glow of decent local election results and that rubs off on following polls.
But I'd expect that 17pc share to drift back down again over the next few weeks. Mostly to Tories, but with Labour - who did well last week too - shoring up towards 40s again.
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The UKIP share can increase as much as it likes..what happens when those voters are faced with a choice between a tory government or a labour one is what matters when it comes to a general election.
The whole SNP/Independence campaign is so bad as to defame the word 'poor'. It is as though they have chosen the campaign via a lottery.
It is clear that what the Scots' wish is the nebulous "Devo-Max". Sadly their English parents have told them that they cannot afford it.
What-to-do? Waste money on a campaign that will see the Scottish nation earn a ranking alongside their football team or admit defeat...?
There is a glimmer of hope: One that I hold to and would stress to my Scots cousins; if you do not vote for independence then your place will become nothing more than an appendage to Her Majesty's glorious kingdom. Your say will become ever silent, your will ever deminished. England's voice is all-pervading: Be warned...!
Have to feel sorry for yougov - difficult to craft a question to match the abject fear and panic that will enter the mind of the voters when they are 6 weeks away from the distinct possibility of PM Milibland.
Good Morning: The talk is, that UKIP have the highest hopes for the seat below.
BARKING AND DAGENHAM - Longbridge (Labour died)
2010 - Lab 3292/2900/2559, LD 1239, Con 1221/1109/316, BNP 677, Ind 452/388/369/167, UKIP 383 2006 - Lab 1272/1253/1233, Con 1227/1111/910, Ind 1072, UKIP 701, Grn 588 Feb 2003 by - Con 1186, Lab 578, LD 180 2002 - Lab 869/852/774, Con 811/757/741, LD 379/352/334
Syed AHAMMAD (The Labour Party Candidate) Paul AYER (Conservative) Bert BEDWELL (UK Independence Party) Dave CROFT (Liberal Democrats) Giuseppe DE SANTIS (British National Party)
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
Why would people do that ? At the moment UKIP is the story and it can't be avoided. Cameron's foolishness in insulting potential voters is coming back to hurt him so it remains to be seen if he can pull himself out of the swamp as well as a sheep. But looking at the locals I can't see too much for Ed to be happy with. The kind of switch voters he needs, in the places he needs them aren't switching to Labour, his main hope must be a split vote on the right. His lack of political convictions isn't convincing anyone.
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The UKIP share can increase as much as it likes..what happens when those voters are faced with a choice between a tory government or a labour one is what matters when it comes to a general election.
At what point will that thought stop comforting you? When the Conservatives are polling level with UKIP? When UKIP is polling above the Conservatives?
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The UKIP share can increase as much as it likes..what happens when those voters are faced with a choice between a tory government or a labour one is what matters when it comes to a general election.
The UKIP phenomena is the story of the moment, but has been discussed extensively enough over the week. What more is there to say at present?
I see it driving all parties to the right on a variety of issues, with very little counter argument from the left. The centre is shifting politically, and a Miliband govt will not be able to ignore it.
tim - you were one of those against GO going north to prick the egos of Eck and his financial dimwits - turned out you were utterly wrong on that - the polls have spoken.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 3m Clegg re childcare ratios, points out 1 person looking after 6 two-yr-olds is a nightmare. Says spent 'weeks' talking to PM on it #callclegg
Tim Gatt @TimGattITV 4m RT @itvnews: Shadow education secretary granted an Urgent Question to Michael Gove on childcare ratios at 9.30am.
Dave's flagship attempt to tackle his issues with women voters going well.
The attempt to increase childcare quotas scares me rigid.
A tragedy waiting to happen caused by a cheapskate government.
Since YouGov started polling after the 2001 General Election the blues have never been on this level.
This surprised me, because I recollect that in the darkest[brightest] days of the leadership of IDS the Lib Dems came within a whisker of overtaking the Conservatives in the opinion polls.
I found a Guardian ICM poll from 2003-09-21, which had the Conservatives on 30% and the Lib Dems on 28%, which fits with my recollection, but I can't find a comparable archive of YouGov polls (ukpollingreport only goes back to the 2005 general election).
Granted that ICM poll was during conference season - I wonder how much attention the media will now give the UKIP conference in the autumn?
How many Tory MPs have a Lib Dem in second place? A by-election in that situation would be very interesting with the present polling.
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The UKIP share can increase as much as it likes..what happens when those voters are faced with a choice between a tory government or a labour one is what matters when it comes to a general election.
The UKIP phenomena is the story of the moment, but has been discussed extensively enough over the week. What more is there to say at present?
I see it driving all parties to the right on a variety of issues, with very little counter argument from the left. The centre is shifting politically, and a Miliband govt will not be able to ignore it.
More importantly, what will be the effect on fox hunting! Should you look at improving your home security?
But they [the Coalition] have also failed because too much of the Tory party has simply refused to change in the way that Cameron promised, leaving their leader exposed and weak.
Weak, feeble, simple-minded. A pathetic excuse for a Prime Minister.
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
Why would people do that ? At the moment UKIP is the story and it can't be avoided. Cameron's foolishness in insulting potential voters is coming back to hurt him so it remains to be seen if he can pull himself out of the swamp as well as a sheep. But looking at the locals I can't see too much for Ed to be happy with. The kind of switch voters he needs, in the places he needs them aren't switching to Labour, his main hope must be a split vote on the right. His lack of political convictions isn't convincing anyone.
It's the damage to Cameron which UKIP are doing that counts. The Eurosceptics all over the news yesterday, the taunting of Osborne and Cameron over Dorries are just a couple of signs. He's made a huge strategic error on Europe and Immigration.
The people who made the huge strategic error on immigration are Labour, you've undermined the livelihoods of people who are swing voters. White van man wants to better himself and not live of handouts and that's all Labour is offering him.
trail hoplessly in the poles by a margain of two to one, mount feeble and incoherent responses to legitimate concerns, then when they have lulled the Unionists into a false sense of security will ambush them with Claymores.
I'm not sure the Polish vote is going to be a huge factor. Since your 'legitimate' concerns seem to revolve round an independent Scotland having customs posts like those between Ireland and NI and the SNP's plan to share embassies and a military with the rUK, I don't think you require responses, incoherent or otherwise.
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The next milestone will be when UKIP is closer to the Conservatives than the Lib Dems are to UKIP.
The latest on the EU-US trade negotiations from the FT:
In Europe, Karel De Gucht, the trade commissioner, is working with the bloc’s 27 member states to finalise a negotiating mandate with the hope of beginning formal negotiations in June. While it is still early days, Mr Erixon sees troubling signs that some member states may be inclined to limit the scope of the talks before the parties have sat down at the bargaining table.
France, in particular, has repeatedly insisted that the “cultural exception” – a regime that protects its television and music industries from foreign competition – be off the table in any agreement. The French and others have also argued that the EU should not make any compromises on its food safety standards.
To Mr Erixon, the risk is that any carve-outs by Brussels may trigger retaliatory ones from Washington. “The problem is that after this burst of optimism, we haven’t really seen much signal that [Europe] is willing to do an ambitious deal,” he says.
EU supporters always say that the UK benefits from having the "weight" of the EU behind us in helping us negotiate trade deals. The reality is that that weight is on our shoulders and burdening us down.
It's a funny Clegg-asm type period we're in - Ukip bask in the glow of decent local election results and that rubs off on following polls.
But I'd expect that 17pc share to drift back down again over the next few weeks. Mostly to Tories, but with Labour - who did well last week too - shoring up towards 40s again.
pb lefties - full of noise until after the event - when proven wrong - again.
Gotta live rightwing projection.
They're in charge, the house is falling in, but it's all the Lefties fault.
When will the Right ever take responsibility for what are its own stuff ups?
GO went up to Glasgow and made the case for the union - let me know when the hardmen of the left - Balls and rEd are up there making the case ?
I see Gordon Brown is swanning round Cape Town this week - isn't he supposed to be an MP ?
As for childcare ratios - my sprog aged 4 and 29 other similar aged weans will be looked after by 2 adults - the name of this medieval torture chamber of dreadful ratios ?
The people who made the huge strategic error on immigration are Labour, you've undermined the livelihoods of people who are swing voters.
Immigration is inextricably linked with the EU. Farage will be no more unhappy to see Cameron posture on that than welfare since Cammie postured on welfare before the locals to no avail. Any issue UKIP can outflank him on is a bad issue to posture on. That it hurts little Ed too would only matter if it hurt him equally. It doesn't.
" The critical measure is the LAB-CON gap and there’s little doubt that the main beneficiary of the Ukip rise is Mr. Miliband. "
You know the solution. Competence and the economy. Not while Osbrowne is there.
Member states such as Britain, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands are lobbying for constraints on rights once considered fundamental, even on the founding principle of free movement.
If Germany is willing to restrict one of the four "fundamental freedoms", then why should we be so cowardly about demanding trade policy be changed, namely by making it an open trade bloc rather than a closed one, like NAFTA, Mercosur, ASEAN, the coming Pacific agreement etc etc...
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The next milestone will be when UKIP is closer to the Conservatives than the Lib Dems are to UKIP.
What we need is an Angus Reid poll.
Surely party membership, and fundraising will be the next milestones?
1st quarter 2013 fundraising report should come out late this month (1st quarter 2012 was released 22 May). Will UKIP be raising more money than the LDs?
Then membership. UKIP reported that they had 2000 new members in April, then when their site went down yesterday, they reported signing up 229 new members in one day. At that rate of growth, when will their membership pass the LDs?
If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.
Good odds as well.
I just wonder where those seats could be.
Heres where I think they have their best chance, although the Thanet seats look good too now
S Bas & E Thurrock Thurrock Bromsgrove Halesown & Rowley Regis Staffordshire Moorlands Dudley North Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme** Stoke on Trent South Telford Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE Barking Dag & Rain Plymouth Moor View
And for UnionDivvie on our bet, Salmond has a 4 point lead over Darling with the Badger having 33% don't knows.
All to play for in the next 16 months then.
I know you rate Darling but I don't think the negative campaigning required by Bettertogether really serves him well. Pure anecdata, but my mother, lifelong Labour voter, Darling fancier and probable No is 'very disappointed' in him.
This is a single poll. Albeit showing a continuation of a very recent trend. The most tiresome aspect of UKIP's current buoyancy is the hysteria it provokes all round. But the hysteria is important - that, rather than UKIP's current poll ratings, is likely to have lasting implications. The Conservative leadership's problem is that far too many of its own party want UKIP to succeed.
The Scottish independence poll is also just a single poll. (Though I do note that at 31:59 it is very close to the 2:1 margin against independence that I've been touting for some time.) For these ratings to start shifting in favour of Scottish independence, the Scottish independence campaign needs to start doing something different. There's not much sign of that just yet.
When the polling gap between UKIP and the Tories is smaller than that between Labour and the Tories the PB Tories will avoid the thread subject, that much is clear.
The next milestone will be when UKIP is closer to the Conservatives than the Lib Dems are to UKIP.
What we need is an Angus Reid poll.
Surely party membership, and fundraising will be the next milestones?
1st quarter 2013 fundraising report should come out late this month (1st quarter 2012 was released 22 May). Will UKIP be raising more money than the LDs?
Then membership. UKIP reported that they had 2000 new members in April, then when their site went down yesterday, they reported signing up 229 new members in one day. At that rate of growth, when will their membership pass the LDs?
If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.
Good odds as well.
I just wonder where those seats could be.
Heres where I think they have their best chance, although the Thanet seats look good too now
S Bas & E Thurrock Thurrock Bromsgrove Halesown & Rowley Regis Staffordshire Moorlands Dudley North Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme** Stoke on Trent South Telford Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE Barking Dag & Rain Plymouth Moor View
Not sure why you have the Staffs Moorlands and Newcastle Under Lyme seats on your list , they were areas where UKIP did well in 2009 but made no progress last week and in fact went backwards .
EU supporters always say that the UK benefits from having the "weight" of the EU behind us in helping us negotiate trade deals. The reality is that that weight is on our shoulders and burdening us down.
Don't forget we pay the EU a net 10 billion GBP per year in "protection money"!
trail hoplessly in the poles by a margain of two to one, mount feeble and incoherent responses to legitimate concerns, then when they have lulled the Unionists into a false sense of security will ambush them with Claymores.
I'm not sure the Polish vote is going to be a huge factor. Since your 'legitimate' concerns seem to revolve round an independent Scotland having customs posts like those between Ireland and NI and the SNP's plan to share embassies and a military with the rUK, I don't think you require responses, incoherent or otherwise.
I am for Scottish independence, though will not have a vote on it. One of the many benefits of independence would be avoiding the whining and petulance of the Yes campaign when their own Scots voters vote to remain in the Union.
"its not fair etc etc" ad nauseum, and starting already.
I know you rate Darling but I don't think the negative campaigning required by Bettertogether really serves him well.
I think it's sweet that SLAB and labour think being on the same side as the tories and making all the same negative arguments as Osbrowne won't hurt them in scotland eventually. It certainly didn't do the lib dems any harm after all.
I know you rate Darling but I don't think the negative campaigning required by Bettertogether really serves him well.
I think it's sweet that SLAB and labour think being on the same side as the tories and makiing all the same arguments as Osbrowne won't hurt them in scotland eventually. It certainly didn't do the lib dems any harm after all.
Don't tell me - the GO trip is a "slow burner" - will take 15 months to enter the voters thoughts....
I know you rate Darling but I don't think the negative campaigning required by Bettertogether really serves him well.
I think it's sweet that SLAB and labour think being on the same side as the tories and making all the same negative arguments as Osbrowne won't hurt them in scotland eventually. It certainly didn't do the lib dems any harm after all.
EU supporters always say that the UK benefits from having the "weight" of the EU behind us in helping us negotiate trade deals. The reality is that that weight is on our shoulders and burdening us down.
Don't forget we pay the EU a net 10 billion GBP per year in "protection money"!
The gross number is £18bn. That is what we focus on. Yes, we get £8bn back, but largely on stuff we shouldn't be spending it on, like welfare for agribusiness.
One of the many benefits of staying in the EU would be avoiding the whining and petulance of the OUT campaign when their own tory leadership avoid a referendum and remain in the European Union.
"its not fair etc etc" ad nauseum, and starting already.
EU supporters always say that the UK benefits from having the "weight" of the EU behind us in helping us negotiate trade deals. The reality is that that weight is on our shoulders and burdening us down.
Don't forget we pay the EU a net 10 billion GBP per year in "protection money"!
The gross number is £18bn. That is what we focus on. Yes, we get £8bn back, but largely on stuff we shouldn't be spending it on, like welfare for agribusiness.
Agreed, but I think a few graphs like that on billboards couldn't do the UKIP/BOO campaign any harm at all!
"its not fair etc etc" ad nauseum, and starting already.
Get your excuses in early.
Really? All the Nats on here (including me) seem relatively upbeat about it. You must be drawing these conclusions from somewhere else, or, much like your 'facts', plucking them from the air.
Housebuilder Barratt Developments has said market conditions are "the most positive we have seen for five years".
Higher consumer demand and improving mortgage supply led to a strong performance between 1 January and 5 May, it said, and a government scheme to aid house buyers was also helping.
Private forward sales were up 28.5% to £1bn, compared with £789m for the same period last year.
It expects a "significant" improvement in full-year operating profits.
Chief executive Mark Clare said: "Our improved performance is being underpinned by stronger market conditions."
The government's Help to Buy scheme, which provides homebuyers with a 20% equity loan towards the purchase of a property, had seen "a strong start".
Since the scheme's introduction on 1 April, "we have seen a step up in levels of consumer interest and a strengthening of sales rates", Mr Clare said.
The favourable conditions have encouraged the developer to increase land purchases, with 17,000 plots expected to be bought in the 2013 financial year, compared with 12,085 in 2012.
Regarding Action Man Ed , Lamb saver Dave and Scott and tims squabbling about who staged what, isnt it true that their are photo's of neither incident, there were no press at the scene of either incident, and they could both just be true stories that are good publicity for both men?
It seems that Eds story is better for the narrative than Daves. Saving a mixed race Londoner rather than a sheep in the countryide is probably better for the image they are trying to project.
Alun Ffred Jones (Plaid, Arfon) announces retirement plans for 2016 Welsh Assembly elections. He was born in 1949 and first elected to the Assembly in 2003. At Assembly level, Arfon is safe Plaid: 30.5% majority in 2011.
Graeme Wearden @graemewearden 9m UK industrial output beats forecasts with 0.7% rise in March. Details & reaction in the liveblog http://gu.com/p/3fybz/tw #business
One of the many benefits of staying in the EU would be avoiding the whining and petulance of the OUT campaign when their own tory leadership avoid a referendum and remain in the European Union.
"its not fair etc etc" ad nauseum, and starting already.
Get your excuses in early.
Fixed that for you.
Did you see the latest Times/Mori Scots Independence poll:
If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.
Good odds as well.
I just wonder where those seats could be.
Heres where I think they have their best chance, although the Thanet seats look good too now
S Bas & E Thurrock Thurrock Bromsgrove Halesown & Rowley Regis Staffordshire Moorlands Dudley North Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme** Stoke on Trent South Telford Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE Barking Dag & Rain Plymouth Moor View
Not sure why you have the Staffs Moorlands and Newcastle Under Lyme seats on your list , they were areas where UKIP did well in 2009 but made no progress last week and in fact went backwards .
Hi
I just tried to work out a formula based on by election results since 2010 on where UKIP gained votes from the big 3. Didnt look into any history so some will be very wrong, indeed lots maybe very wrong.
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
But I would back any of the above at a price I have in mind
next bests would be these (according to my formula, any advice on where it may be nonsense appreciated)
Broadland Great Yarmouth Peterborough West Suffolk Burton Cannock Chase Ludlow Stourbridge Bexhill & Battle Dartford Dover Folkestone & Hythe Hastings & Rye Spelthorne N Warks Brirmingham Northfield Stoke on Trent Central Stoke on Trent North West Brom East Birmingham Yardley Solihull Hx & Upm Erith & Thamesmead Bournemouth East Bridgewater & W Somerset Christchurch East Devon Kingswood Newton Abbot Poole SE Cornwall Torridge & W Devon Totnes N Devon Wells
One of the many benefits of staying in the EU would be avoiding the whining and petulance of the OUT campaign when their own tory leadership avoid a referendum and remain in the European Union.
"its not fair etc etc" ad nauseum, and starting already.
Get your excuses in early.
Fixed that for you.
Did you see the latest Times/Mori Scots Independence poll:
Yes 31%, No 59%
Remember Sunil those 59 % aren't proper Scots , only the 31 % true believers count.
The Nats are always wrong upbeat about disastrous polling
At the last scottish local elections the tories lost 20 per cent of their councillors, had their vote fall to 13.31 per cent and local representation cut dramatically and even wiped out in some areas. Was that the scottish tory surge you were thinking of?
"Shamed former Thanet District Council leader Sandy Ezekiel, jailed for 18 months after being found guilty of four charges of misconduct in a public office, will remain a councillor until the time any appeal against his sentence can be lodged runs out."
At first glance, I think they have much better chance to win this than Barking's one.
Comments
It's getting dangerously close to the tory party beginning to put their cards on the table on IN and OUT.
We're not allowed to talk about the Scottish referendum in 2014 until the "weeks and months before" when the campaign "really gets going."
We must content ourselves with discussing the more distant 2015 GE and a possible EU referendum in 2017.....
SQUIRREL!
LOL
None of the options being put forward by the SNP for the currency are remotely credible.
Firstly, the assert as a matter of right that they are entitled to some sort of currency union with rUK. Osborne points out (a) that there is no such right (b) as an independent country they cannot expect to have influence on the economic decisions of the 58m Scotland have chosen to leave and (c) tellingly, it would require a referendum of rUK to agree to such a relationship. So completely uncertain.
The alternative, promoted by idiots like Blanchflower (how is the 5m unemployed going Dave?), is that Scotland will just use the pound anyway, like Panama using the dollar. But that means no central bank, no lender of last resort and no support for the very important Scottish financial services industry. My understanding is that Panama's financial sector is rather more, shall we say cash driven? In such a scenario the risk to thousands and thousands of Scottish jobs in Edinburgh in particular would be huge as large financial institutions reregsiter in England taking a chunk of tax base with them.
People point to Eire as an example but again Eire did not at that time have a significant financial sector, indeed the incredible boom and bust in their financial sector really only got going with the euro. The risks to the a key part of the Scottish economy are real.
The SNP would have been better going for their own currency. That would have been a more credible position, even if the intention was to tie it to the pound 1:1 in the short term. As it is they seem to have got themselves in rather a hole as Osborne pointed out.
Newssense™. All Osborne, all the time...
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scots-want-to-keep-the-pound.21028893
of course this is the currency he was rubbishing a few years back
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/4143731/Alex-Salmond-Euro-membership-is-a-strong-argument-for-independence.html
how times change.
An EU that played to the strengths of it distinct cultures and genuinely valued them providing a level playing field of rules and market opportunities could have been a great force for good in the world as well as very good for us. Unfortunately, unless the euro breaks up and such a body rises from those ashes, I fear it is too late.
When you finally work out whether the leader of your party supports IN or OUT for his own Cast Iron referendum (his own MPs don't believe him on) I might start to take your AAA Osbrowne currency scaremongering seriously.
In case you didn't notice the toxic Osbrowne is primarily responsible for the labour lead and the only reason he is still in a job is that he's Cammie's close chum. In the chumocracy that beats competence every time.
The only way you beat back the UKIP threat is on economic competence and you aren't getting that back with omnishambles Osbrowne as chancellor.
"Do you really think a retired homeowner contemplating Miliband grabbing say £150,000 tax on their modest home is going to be more concerned about "chumocracy" nonsense?
Grow up, get real, get in touch with ordinary people, not childish PB anorak nonsense."
Do the cheerleaders have any idea what the value of the average home is ? Let alone a 'modest' ie below average home ? Let alone the value of a home lived in by swing voters in swing seats in the midlands, north and Wales ?
Perhaps this threat of a Miliband tax grab - which I've never heard about - is causing terror to Conservative voters in Surrey and Chelsea. In which case there wont be much chance of Labour gains in Surrey and Chelsea in 2015 but I don't think EdM will be too concerned about that.
At least the uber-Blairites are rushing to Cammie's defence. How long till comedy Hodges piles in?
One of the problems for women in motorsports is funding. Take Sarah Moore, a brilliantly fast driver who won the Ginetta Juniors championship in 2009. She's sitting out this year due to a lack of funding. What you need nowadays are really rich parents, or to get the eye of one of the major F1/F3 teams at a young age. But anecdotes such as the above hardly help them.
The atmosphere at the tracks in the junior formulae can also be very anti-woman. This is getting better, but there are some awful stories from just a few years ago. Some very promising young girls - or more accurate their families - are put off racing by the atmosphere.
I want women in F1. They could do just as well as men given the same chance.
Callous Cameron lets lambs drown.
In today's poll, the UKIP support in London is nearly twice that of the pattern of support in previous polls.
@DavidL
" My understanding is that Panama's financial sector is rather more, shall we say cash driven?"
In many parts of Central America, Caribbean and South America, cash is king (any cash will do) as parts of their economy rely on a laundering service for cash-rich people.
You don't seem to understand that all economic arguments come down to trust during a campaign with so much rubbish and conflicting opinions flying about. Same thing will happen at the GE in case you didn't realise it.
The NO campaign think Osbrowne and Darling are the men to trust on matters economic.
You don't perhaps see a slight flaw in their plan? No matter. When the scottish public do start to engage in the campaign they shall be reminded of that flaw.
Lest you think that little Ed and labour are master strategists when it comes to matters scottish and will save the day, you may find this amusing. New Balls please.
Among those certain to vote, 59% would vote 'No', up four points since February, while 31% would vote 'Yes', down three points. One in ten Scots are undecided, down a point.
With the exception of a bounce following the SNP’s election victory in 2011, support for independence continues to hover between 30% and 35%, which is in line with the historical average recorded by Ipsos MORI over the last three and a half decades."
The SNP arnd Yes campaign are running a cunning plan. Trail hoplessly in the poles by a margain of two to one, mount feeble and incoherent responses to legitimate concerns, then when they have lulled the Unionists into a false sense of security will ambush them with Claymores.
Either that or they are as hopeless and witless as the Scottish football team trying to qualify for a world cup.
"You don't seem to understand that all economic arguments come down to trust during a campaign ... "
Not JUST trust though.
Also a policy.
Have the Nats got one, yet?
But the longer you keep thinking that, the less likely you are to win.
if it's economics I'd hardly be banking on Swinney, he's made more than enough of his own share of cockups. The latest just this week.
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/politics/scottish-government-calculations-wrong-by-1-8bn-1-2921490
What? Oh...
Vastly amusing.
I wonder why?
"YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm" After posting on independence for most of the thread what will they find to whine about next?
He'll pull himself together in a bit and get right back into his 'fops' and 'osbrowne' groove I'm sure.
@MSmithsonPB: Chart showing trend in Scottish #indyref voting intention from Ipsos-MORI http://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/332398662405738496/photo/1
But I'd expect that 17pc share to drift back down again over the next few weeks. Mostly to Tories, but with Labour - who did well last week too - shoring up towards 40s again.
I asked a question further down the thread: do you know the current status of the Yes Declaration?
The last figure I can find is 143,000 from last November:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20539259
It is clear that what the Scots' wish is the nebulous "Devo-Max". Sadly their English parents have told them that they cannot afford it.
What-to-do? Waste money on a campaign that will see the Scottish nation earn a ranking alongside their football team or admit defeat...?
There is a glimmer of hope: One that I hold to and would stress to my Scots cousins; if you do not vote for independence then your place will become nothing more than an appendage to Her Majesty's glorious kingdom. Your say will become ever silent, your will ever deminished. England's voice is all-pervading: Be warned...!
Like-for-like sales, which strip out the effect of new store openings, excluding fuel fell 1.8% in the 13 weeks to 5 May.
At present, Morrisons is the only one of the "big four" supermarkets not to sell food online.
On Wednesday, Sainsbury's reported that about half of its sales growth had come from online and convenience stores.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22461554
Obviously, Morrisons have a disastrous strategic management and needs a good clear-out at the top.
BARKING AND DAGENHAM - Longbridge (Labour died)
2010 - Lab 3292/2900/2559, LD 1239, Con 1221/1109/316, BNP 677, Ind 452/388/369/167, UKIP 383
2006 - Lab 1272/1253/1233, Con 1227/1111/910, Ind 1072, UKIP 701, Grn 588
Feb 2003 by - Con 1186, Lab 578, LD 180
2002 - Lab 869/852/774, Con 811/757/741, LD 379/352/334
Syed AHAMMAD (The Labour Party Candidate)
Paul AYER (Conservative)
Bert BEDWELL (UK Independence Party)
Dave CROFT (Liberal Democrats)
Giuseppe DE SANTIS (British National Party)
I see it driving all parties to the right on a variety of issues, with very little counter argument from the left. The centre is shifting politically, and a Miliband govt will not be able to ignore it.
Those who have decided how they will vote are more anti-independence than those who may change their minds (yes/no)
Decided: 31:69
May change: 38:62
The strongest support for the Union is among working owner occupiers - Maggie's last laugh?
Strongest support for independence is among not working renters.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOMMay13/Scotland_SPOM_May13_Tables.pdf
A tragedy waiting to happen caused by a cheapskate government.
And lest they think their reheated desperate scaremongering is of any substance or consequence they could try to educate themselves for once.
I found a Guardian ICM poll from 2003-09-21, which had the Conservatives on 30% and the Lib Dems on 28%, which fits with my recollection, but I can't find a comparable archive of YouGov polls (ukpollingreport only goes back to the 2005 general election).
Granted that ICM poll was during conference season - I wonder how much attention the media will now give the UKIP conference in the autumn?
How many Tory MPs have a Lib Dem in second place? A by-election in that situation would be very interesting with the present polling.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/08/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-coalition
They're in charge, the house is falling in, but it's all the Lefties fault.
When will the Right ever take responsibility for what are its own stuff ups?
Since your 'legitimate' concerns seem to revolve round an independent Scotland having customs posts like those between Ireland and NI and the SNP's plan to share embassies and a military with the rUK, I don't think you require responses, incoherent or otherwise.
What we need is an Angus Reid poll.
In Europe, Karel De Gucht, the trade commissioner, is working with the bloc’s 27 member states to finalise a negotiating mandate with the hope of beginning formal negotiations in June. While it is still early days, Mr Erixon sees troubling signs that some member states may be inclined to limit the scope of the talks before the parties have sat down at the bargaining table.
France, in particular, has repeatedly insisted that the “cultural exception” – a regime that protects its television and music industries from foreign competition – be off the table in any agreement. The French and others have also argued that the EU should not make any compromises on its food safety standards.
To Mr Erixon, the risk is that any carve-outs by Brussels may trigger retaliatory ones from Washington. “The problem is that after this burst of optimism, we haven’t really seen much signal that [Europe] is willing to do an ambitious deal,” he says.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be0634bc-b17d-11e2-9315-00144feabdc0.html
EU supporters always say that the UK benefits from having the "weight" of the EU behind us in helping us negotiate trade deals. The reality is that that weight is on our shoulders and burdening us down.
I see Gordon Brown is swanning round Cape Town this week - isn't he supposed to be an MP ?
As for childcare ratios - my sprog aged 4 and 29 other similar aged weans will be looked after by 2 adults - the name of this medieval torture chamber of dreadful ratios ?
School.
" The critical measure is the LAB-CON gap and there’s little doubt that the main beneficiary of the Ukip rise is Mr. Miliband. "
You know the solution. Competence and the economy. Not while Osbrowne is there.
Member states such as Britain, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands are lobbying for constraints on rights once considered fundamental, even on the founding principle of free movement.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/baf1d114-b17d-11e2-9315-00144feabdc0.html
If Germany is willing to restrict one of the four "fundamental freedoms", then why should we be so cowardly about demanding trade policy be changed, namely by making it an open trade bloc rather than a closed one, like NAFTA, Mercosur, ASEAN, the coming Pacific agreement etc etc...
1st quarter 2013 fundraising report should come out late this month (1st quarter 2012 was released 22 May). Will UKIP be raising more money than the LDs?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis
Then membership. UKIP reported that they had 2000 new members in April, then when their site went down yesterday, they reported signing up 229 new members in one day. At that rate of growth, when will their membership pass the LDs?
https://twitter.com/RobBurberry/status/332178785220820993
S Bas & E Thurrock
Thurrock
Bromsgrove
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Staffordshire Moorlands
Dudley North
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme**
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
Barking
Dag & Rain
Plymouth Moor View
I know you rate Darling but I don't think the negative campaigning required by Bettertogether really serves him well. Pure anecdata, but my mother, lifelong Labour voter, Darling fancier and probable No is 'very disappointed' in him.
The Scottish independence poll is also just a single poll. (Though I do note that at 31:59 it is very close to the 2:1 margin against independence that I've been touting for some time.) For these ratings to start shifting in favour of Scottish independence, the Scottish independence campaign needs to start doing something different. There's not much sign of that just yet.
Better news from industry. Manufacturing output up by 1.1% in March, overall industrial production up 0.7%: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_309178.pdf …
http://t.co/4FH2Oryd8I
"its not fair etc etc" ad nauseum, and starting already.
Get your excuses in early.
It certainly didn't do the lib dems any harm after all.
There's a by-election in Thanet today, in a safish Con ward with the previous Cllr disqualified after a prison sentence.
If David Moyes is confirmed as Manckies' next manager then I have a question. How long until PaddyPower put up a next ManU manager market...?
I think Moyes should stay with 'The Toffies'. Martinez would be a better interim manager....
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44144
Salmond is slipping ;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10045820/Alex-Salmond-in-mire-after-independence-support-drops-to-31-per-cent.html
Antifrank's 66% No 33% Yes to " Independence " is looking good.
Really? All the Nats on here (including me) seem relatively upbeat about it. You must be drawing these conclusions from somewhere else, or, much like your 'facts', plucking them from the air.
Higher consumer demand and improving mortgage supply led to a strong performance between 1 January and 5 May, it said, and a government scheme to aid house buyers was also helping.
Private forward sales were up 28.5% to £1bn, compared with £789m for the same period last year.
It expects a "significant" improvement in full-year operating profits.
Chief executive Mark Clare said: "Our improved performance is being underpinned by stronger market conditions."
The government's Help to Buy scheme, which provides homebuyers with a 20% equity loan towards the purchase of a property, had seen "a strong start".
Since the scheme's introduction on 1 April, "we have seen a step up in levels of consumer interest and a strengthening of sales rates", Mr Clare said.
The favourable conditions have encouraged the developer to increase land purchases, with 17,000 plots expected to be bought in the 2013 financial year, compared with 12,085 in 2012.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22461558
It seems that Eds story is better for the narrative than Daves. Saving a mixed race Londoner rather than a sheep in the countryide is probably better for the image they are trying to project.
At Assembly level, Arfon is safe Plaid: 30.5% majority in 2011.
The Nats are always wrong upbeat about disastrous polling
Clegg just gasping for publicity against the tide of his irrelevance.
UK industrial output beats forecasts with 0.7% rise in March. Details & reaction in the liveblog http://gu.com/p/3fybz/tw #business
Good news....
Yes 31%, No 59%
'So why aren't you demanding he be sent to scotland to posture again? I think we all know the answer to that one thanks'
If he's said it once, to such good effect, what on earth would be the point of him going back to repeat it.
Anyway, he's busy saving the rUK economy for the rest of us.
I just tried to work out a formula based on by election results since 2010 on where UKIP gained votes from the big 3. Didnt look into any history so some will be very wrong, indeed lots maybe very wrong.
I know local knowledge is despised around these parts, but the Thurrock, Barking and Dag & Rainham ones would seem like good bets without any stat, just by the attitude of lots the people I know to immigration/foreigners.
But I would back any of the above at a price I have in mind
next bests would be these (according to my formula, any advice on where it may be nonsense appreciated)
Broadland
Great Yarmouth
Peterborough
West Suffolk
Burton
Cannock Chase
Ludlow
Stourbridge
Bexhill & Battle
Dartford
Dover
Folkestone & Hythe
Hastings & Rye
Spelthorne
N Warks
Brirmingham Northfield
Stoke on Trent Central
Stoke on Trent North
West Brom East
Birmingham Yardley
Solihull
Hx & Upm
Erith & Thamesmead
Bournemouth East
Bridgewater & W Somerset
Christchurch
East Devon
Kingswood
Newton Abbot
Poole
SE Cornwall
Torridge & W Devon
Totnes
N Devon
Wells
Remember Sunil those 59 % aren't proper Scots , only the 31 % true believers count.
"Shamed former Thanet District Council leader Sandy Ezekiel, jailed for 18 months after being found guilty of four charges of misconduct in a public office, will remain a councillor until the time any appeal against his sentence can be lodged runs out."
At first glance, I think they have much better chance to win this than Barking's one.