Nothing concerns the Labourites - they are nailed on.
That is why they post here. All day. Every day. If they let up for a moment the comedy fops might just sneak a win over Ed "Superhero" Miliband... Then where would we be?
Nothing concerns the Labourites - they are nailed on.
That is why they post here. All day. Every day. If they let up for a moment the comedy fops might just sneak a win over Ed "Superhero" Miliband... Then where would we be?
Don't worry - they will all be happy when Cam loses the next election - just like 2010.
I am from Scotland, have lived in London for more than 20 years and consider it home. Often those who live in a place, but who were not brought up in it, appreciate it more than the native born.
Given that you aren't prepared to assess UKIPs chances of outpolling their performances in the Shires in even the most favourable (by your definition) half of London at less than 7/4 then we are in agreement aren't we?
I doubt very much that UKIP are going to outpoll their shire vote in a city full of immigrants, by that I mean people who dont consider it home including white brits from Manchester, Cornwall, Glasgow, you are right there!
Although you are not confident enough that Im wrong to back the 4/7
@JohnRentoul: “(Not) a reactionary nostalgist in the republic of letters”: Another furiously aspiring speech from Michael Go... http://ind.pn/13DSNXw
I wonder whether Michael Gove ran the passage criticising young people who "while away hours flinging electronic fowl at virtual pigs" past Number 10? I suppose David Cameron is not that young.
Having just survived a nasty squall here in downtown East London, I then find myself reading a Dan Hodges piece. I rarely read Hodges and his feelings toward Ed M are transparent but what should Labour be doing?
Quite apart from last night's YouGov numbers, the demographic breakdown earlier in the week looked awful for the Conservatives - level with Labour in the 65+ age group will suit Ed just fine I would guess.
The only question at the moment from these numbers is not how many seats will UKIP get or how many seats will the Lib Dems keep but the size of the Labour majority. The subsidiary to that is what (if anything) Labour has to do to ensure that majority. I agree with those who counsel that simply relying on the Coalition to dig its own grave is unwise but persuading a sceptical (and battered) electorate that going back to Labour is the preferrable option given the relative fresheness of memory of the Brown years in particular won't be easy.
We come back to this single key point - what will those currently enthused by UKIP do come May 2015 when the only options are a Government led by the Conservatives or a Government led by Labour? For all the hype, they are the only options on the table.
We come back to this single key point - what will those currently enthused by UKIP do come May 2015 when the only options are a Government led by the Conservatives or a Government led by Labour? For all the hype, they are the only options on the table.
"A government led by" suggests you accept minority government as a likely option. Four party politics, a further decline in the dominance of Labour and Conservatives. I'm sure UKIP supporters can live with that.
I am from Scotland, have lived in London for more than 20 years and consider it home. Often those who live in a place, but were brought up in it, appreciate it more than the native born.
Given that you aren't prepared to assess UKIPs chances of outpolling their performances in the Shires in even the most favourable (by your definition) half of London at less than 7/4 then we are in agreement aren't we?
I doubt very much that UKIP are going to outpoll their shire vote in a city full of immigrants, by that I mean people who dont consider it home including white brits from Manchester, Cornwall, Glasgow, you are right there!
Although you are not confident enough that Im wrong to back the 4/7
Yes I didnt mean all people who lived in London but were born elsewhere think that way.But the % who do think like that is far more than that in smaller towns where people dont come for work.
I am from Essex, lived in London for a few years but always thought of Essex as home. If you dont consider Scotland home thats your choice, fair enough
Looking at the numbers, all Ed has to do is not scare the middle class horses with something too radical and he's there. I'm sure he can manage that, no matter how cr*p some on the tory side think he is. As an added bonus, even McCluskey is learning to keep his trap shut until Ed gets the keys to number 10.
Hardly a general opinion. The RCP/Living Marxism cult is one of the strangest media "successes" though. She's got interesting views on child pornography as well.
Her,O'Neill and co have managed to burrow away since the magazine got shut down after claiming ITN and Ed Vulliamy had faked the Serb Concentration camps.
Tim yet again being rather partial with the truth to make it seem that Living Marxism did something far worse than they actually did.
LM lost the court case because they claimed deliberate deception on the part of ITN. This was always going to be incredibly difficult to prove and it was daft of LM to make this claim.
However what the court case did establish was that ITN was wrong in claiming the camps were concentration camps and that LM's claims that the people were not being held prisoner there were true. That has been widely accepted since even by ITN and was explicitly stated to be the fact during the court case.
So in the end the ITN team weren't shown to be deliberately misleading, just poor at doing their job of establishing the facts.
We come back to this single key point - what will those currently enthused by UKIP do come May 2015 when the only options are a Government led by the Conservatives or a Government led by Labour? For all the hype, they are the only options on the table.
This has always been the case, but the number of people voting for one or other of the big two parties is in long-term decline. This YouGov poll actually has the proportion voting for Con + Lab equal to the 2010 level. Shouldn't we expect it to decline further?
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles Why does Andrew Green thinks it matters if the "white-British" become a minority by 2060? The "British" won't be a minority
I'd have thought that was obvious, but at least he's stopped pretending otherwise.
LOL Daniel Knowles, Sutton Coldfield's answer to Adrian Mole, his columns in the DT are sorely missed, the comments were hilarious.
He's right to pin Andrew Greens racism though.
Any evidence he is ? Maybe he's just a conservationist for engangered tribes in eastern England or Central London. Quite how an Oxbridge posho can judge someone else's character is puzzling, you don't gain much real life experience by dry humping politicians legs.
We come back to this single key point - what will those currently enthused by UKIP do come May 2015 when the only options are a Government led by the Conservatives or a Government led by Labour? For all the hype, they are the only options on the table.
This has always been the case, but the number of people voting for one or other of the big two parties is in long-term decline. This YouGov poll actually has the proportion voting for Con + Lab equal to the 2010 level. Shouldn't we expect it to decline further?
I always find it incredibly condescending the way that people from 'The Big Two' argue that no-one should ever even consider voting for anyone else. Many Conservatives seem to view UKIP voters as naughty children, who will come running back to nanny as soon as a 'real' election looms.
Yet UKIP (and the Greens and even the LibDems) are more than repositories for protest votes. They have their own policies and cultures and ethos.
The lack of respect shown to UKIP voters by the Conservatives reminds me so much of the Labour Party's attitude towards the SDP in the 1980s - i.e., if you would just 'get in line' then we'd win. And it's a profoundly negative and - to my mind - undemocratic view.
I am from Scotland, have lived in London for more than 20 years and consider it home. Often those who live in a place, but were brought up in it, appreciate it more than the native born.
Given that you aren't prepared to assess UKIPs chances of outpolling their performances in the Shires in even the most favourable (by your definition) half of London at less than 7/4 then we are in agreement aren't we?
I doubt very much that UKIP are going to outpoll their shire vote in a city full of immigrants, by that I mean people who dont consider it home including white brits from Manchester, Cornwall, Glasgow, you are right there!
Although you are not confident enough that Im wrong to back the 4/7
Yes I didnt mean all people who lived in London but were born elsewhere think that way.But the % who do think like that is far more than that in smaller towns where people dont come for work.
I am from Essex, lived in London for a few years but always thought of Essex as home. If you dont consider Scotland home thats your choice, fair enough
I wasn't born in Ilford, I was born in India, but lived in Essex and the London area since I was a few months old, and Ilford itself since I was three.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 1m Stewart Jackson: "The property is now valued at less than we purchased it for in 2005." In London? Wonder where it is? On a cliff?
The disputed property is in Peterborough but other than that great post.
We come back to this single key point - what will those currently enthused by UKIP do come May 2015 when the only options are a Government led by the Conservatives or a Government led by Labour? For all the hype, they are the only options on the table.
This has always been the case, but the number of people voting for one or other of the big two parties is in long-term decline. This YouGov poll actually has the proportion voting for Con + Lab equal to the 2010 level. Shouldn't we expect it to decline further?
I always find it incredibly condescending the way that people from 'The Big Two' argue that no-one should ever even consider voting for anyone else. Many Conservatives seem to view UKIP voters as naughty children, who will come running back to nanny as soon as a 'real' election looms.
Yet UKIP (and the Greens and even the LibDems) are more than repositories for protest votes. They have their own policies and cultures and ethos.
The lack of respect shown to UKIP voters by the Conservatives reminds me so much of the Labour Party's attitude towards the SDP in the 1980s - i.e., if you would just 'get in line' then we'd win. And it's a profoundly negative and - to my mind - undemocratic view.
Indeed. Particularly when many of the same people support FPTP as an option and argued during that debate that people being forced to vote for a party they didn't really like very much wasn't much of an issue.
"UKIP holds all three of the 'governing' parties of the past 20 years responsible for the catastrophic state of the UK's energy strategy, which will see sever energy shortages, soaring prices, brownouts and energy rationing from 2015 onwards. Here, our Energy and Industry spokesman Roger Helmer MEP describes what has gone so wrong – and how to put it right."
I will offer evens that that there will be neither rationing nor brownouts in UK electricity in 2015 or 2016. Any size.
I will also bet that - as global gas prices ease thanks to the US and Canada being able to export cheap shale gas (plus the giant Australian LNG fields of Gorgon and the like come on-stream) - that inflation-adjusted retail electricity prices in 2016 will be below current levels.
EDIT I think Survation's UKIP profile favours Option 1, with UKIP now drawing their additional support from Labour as much/more than the Conservatives.
@rcs1000 While I agree with your general point, I find it hard to summon up even the slightest respect for UKIP supporters while they can't agree among themselves on their flagship policy. Do they want to be in the EEA (and thus have to accept the current rules on immigration) or do they want to be outside the EEA (and thus be outside the common market)? Or do they want something that's not currently on offer but that they're 100% sure that they'd be able to get by some hocus pocus?
While their main policy boils down to having their cake and eating it, it's not surprising they're condescended to.
I am from Scotland, have lived in London for more than 20 years and consider it home. Often those who live in a place, but were brought up in it, appreciate it more than the native born.
Given that you aren't prepared to assess UKIPs chances of outpolling their performances in the Shires in even the most favourable (by your definition) half of London at less than 7/4 then we are in agreement aren't we?
I doubt very much that UKIP are going to outpoll their shire vote in a city full of immigrants, by that I mean people who dont consider it home including white brits from Manchester, Cornwall, Glasgow, you are right there!
Although you are not confident enough that Im wrong to back the 4/7
Yes I didnt mean all people who lived in London but were born elsewhere think that way.But the % who do think like that is far more than that in smaller towns where people dont come for work.
I am from Essex, lived in London for a few years but always thought of Essex as home. If you dont consider Scotland home thats your choice, fair enough
I wasn't born in Ilford, I was born in India, but lived in Essex and the London area since I was a few months old, and Ilford itself since I was three.
Well I am not claiming to be judge and jury on what people call home. I would have thoughtfor most people it would be the place where you grew up in childhood/went to school, but as with everything it is subjective to a degree, and for some people it can be more than one place.
For someone who was brought up and went to school in Gloucester, went to Uni in Portsmouth and then got a job working in London, I still think Gloucester would be "home" and London would be a place where they enjoyed the diversity of culture, but wouldnt like Gloucester to be similar.
Mr. Socrates, one legitimate aspect of the 'get in line' argument is on the EU itself.
And yes, I know the UKIP rebuttal: "We don't trust Cameron". I don't buy that as a counter-argument because (whilst it's true they don't trust him) if Cameron got a majority and reneged on the referendum his own side would quite happily kill him off in a heartbeat.
If we don't have a Conservative government then it'll be either Labour (EU-phile) or Lib Dem (EU zealots).
The EU's a rotten organisation and the sooner we have the opportunity to leave the better.
I will also bet that - as global gas prices ease thanks to the US and Canada being able to export cheap shale gas (plus the giant Australian LNG fields of Gorgon and the like come on-stream) - that inflation-adjusted retail electricity prices in 2016 will be below current levels.
You might like to listen to last week's "view from 22" programme. Peter Lilley MP, a bod from Which? magazine, and a bod from British gas all seemed pretty sure prices were going up above inflation.
In terms of its impact on GE2015 a 17% Ukip share still falls some way short of what’s required to win a seat.
Yet in Kent UKIP are in poll position after the county council elections to take Thanet North, Thanet South and Sittingbourne and Sheppey where they won the popular vote. They are neck and neck after the elections with the Tories in Folkestone,and Tunbridge Wells and for the want of another candidate could have been neck and neck in Dover as well (which could become a three-way marginal with Labour) .
UKIP are even further ahead in the popular vote in Boston & Skegness in Lincolnshire. than in any of the Kent seats so that could provide them with an MP as well and there are potentially other seats such as Gt Yarmouth which I've yet to look at.
It is ironic that up until the county council elections the charges against UKIP on here was that they did not have a council base and their support was not concentrated in any areas. Now of course they have achieved both. It is clear that the Eastern Coastal counties of England are potential heartlands for UKIP (unsurprising as these are currently Tory heartlands) and yet certain commentators who will remain nameless ignore this and instead now peddle bland assertions seemingly based on the highly inaccurate UNS..
Comments
Often those who live in a place, but who were not brought up in it, appreciate it more than the native born.
I think he's between a rock and hard place on Europe, but I guess its conceivable the EU will grant him something...
Having just survived a nasty squall here in downtown East London, I then find myself reading a Dan Hodges piece. I rarely read Hodges and his feelings toward Ed M are transparent but what should Labour be doing?
Quite apart from last night's YouGov numbers, the demographic breakdown earlier in the week looked awful for the Conservatives - level with Labour in the 65+ age group will suit Ed just fine I would guess.
The only question at the moment from these numbers is not how many seats will UKIP get or how many seats will the Lib Dems keep but the size of the Labour majority. The subsidiary to that is what (if anything) Labour has to do to ensure that majority. I agree with those who counsel that simply relying on the Coalition to dig its own grave is unwise but persuading a sceptical (and battered) electorate that going back to Labour is the preferrable option given the relative fresheness of memory of the Brown years in particular won't be easy.
We come back to this single key point - what will those currently enthused by UKIP do come May 2015 when the only options are a Government led by the Conservatives or a Government led by Labour? For all the hype, they are the only options on the table.
Yes I didnt mean all people who lived in London but were born elsewhere think that way.But the % who do think like that is far more than that in smaller towns where people dont come for work.
I am from Essex, lived in London for a few years but always thought of Essex as home. If you dont consider Scotland home thats your choice, fair enough
Looking at the numbers, all Ed has to do is not scare the middle class horses with something too radical and he's there. I'm sure he can manage that, no matter how cr*p some on the tory side think he is. As an added bonus, even McCluskey is learning to keep his trap shut until Ed gets the keys to number 10.
LM lost the court case because they claimed deliberate deception on the part of ITN. This was always going to be incredibly difficult to prove and it was daft of LM to make this claim.
However what the court case did establish was that ITN was wrong in claiming the camps were concentration camps and that LM's claims that the people were not being held prisoner there were true. That has been widely accepted since even by ITN and was explicitly stated to be the fact during the court case.
So in the end the ITN team weren't shown to be deliberately misleading, just poor at doing their job of establishing the facts.
Yet UKIP (and the Greens and even the LibDems) are more than repositories for protest votes. They have their own policies and cultures and ethos.
The lack of respect shown to UKIP voters by the Conservatives reminds me so much of the Labour Party's attitude towards the SDP in the 1980s - i.e., if you would just 'get in line' then we'd win. And it's a profoundly negative and - to my mind - undemocratic view.
The disputed property is in Peterborough but other than that great post.
"UKIP holds all three of the 'governing' parties of the past 20 years responsible for the catastrophic state of the UK's energy strategy, which will see sever energy shortages, soaring prices, brownouts and energy rationing from 2015 onwards. Here, our Energy and Industry spokesman Roger Helmer MEP describes what has gone so wrong – and how to put it right."
I will offer evens that that there will be neither rationing nor brownouts in UK electricity in 2015 or 2016. Any size.
I will also bet that - as global gas prices ease thanks to the US and Canada being able to export cheap shale gas (plus the giant Australian LNG fields of Gorgon and the like come on-stream) - that inflation-adjusted retail electricity prices in 2016 will be below current levels.
Start point: Con 29, Lab 38, LD 10, UKIP 12
Option 1: Con 27, Lab 36, LD 10, UKIP 16
Option 2: Con 25, Lab 38, LD 10, UKIP 16
The next progression would be:
Option 1: Con 25, Lab 34, LD 10, UKIP 20
Option 2: Con 21, Lab 38, LD 10, UKIP 20
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html
EDIT
I think Survation's UKIP profile favours Option 1, with UKIP now drawing their additional support from Labour as much/more than the Conservatives.
http://survation.com/2013/05/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/
While their main policy boils down to having their cake and eating it, it's not surprising they're condescended to.
For someone who was brought up and went to school in Gloucester, went to Uni in Portsmouth and then got a job working in London, I still think Gloucester would be "home" and London would be a place where they enjoyed the diversity of culture, but wouldnt like Gloucester to be similar.
And yes, I know the UKIP rebuttal: "We don't trust Cameron". I don't buy that as a counter-argument because (whilst it's true they don't trust him) if Cameron got a majority and reneged on the referendum his own side would quite happily kill him off in a heartbeat.
If we don't have a Conservative government then it'll be either Labour (EU-phile) or Lib Dem (EU zealots).
The EU's a rotten organisation and the sooner we have the opportunity to leave the better.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/the-view-from-22-special-fuel-wars-how-to-get-the-best-deal-for-the-consumers/
I think they said the US market was a separate entity from the European market.
Yet in Kent UKIP are in poll position after the county council elections to take Thanet North, Thanet South and Sittingbourne and Sheppey where they won the popular vote. They are neck and neck after the elections with the Tories in Folkestone,and Tunbridge Wells and for the want of another candidate could have been neck and neck in Dover as well (which could become a three-way marginal with Labour) .
UKIP are even further ahead in the popular vote in Boston & Skegness in Lincolnshire. than in any of the Kent seats so that could provide them with an MP as well and there are potentially other seats such as Gt Yarmouth which I've yet to look at.
It is ironic that up until the county council elections the charges against UKIP on here was that they did not have a council base and their support was not concentrated in any areas. Now of course they have achieved both. It is clear that the Eastern Coastal counties of England are potential heartlands for UKIP (unsurprising as these are currently Tory heartlands) and yet certain commentators who will remain nameless ignore this and instead now peddle bland assertions seemingly based on the highly inaccurate UNS..