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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm
The figures from the latest News International daily poll by YouGov are above and show the continued damage that the dramatic rise of Ukip is having particularly on the Tories.
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Times/Mori Scotland polling (they ask the same question as the proposed referendum question)
(Changes from the last poll in Feb)
Independence 31(-3)
Remaining in the Union 59 (+4)
Undecided 10 (-1)
Flipping awesome.
Now if they top the polls in The Euros next year will they get a similar boost?
And on that note, bed.
Given that the tradition not just in the UK but globally is for referendums to swing towards no/the status quo unless much changes it seems that the chances of the referendum passing are slimmer than those of the next election providing a Tory landslide majority.
@AndyJS
Thanks for the spreadsheets and work involved. A great source of information.
Could you copyright them in case lazy media and political organisations intend using them?
Thanks to RobD as well.
After all, his master strategy of banging on about Europe, welfare and immigration was clearly a success in the locals and the polling, wasn't it?
"YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm"
*innocent face*
For those too dumb to realise it SLAB were beating the SNP by double figures before it got to the final couple of months of the scottish election campaign proper. Result, SNP landslide.
Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not.
No surprise the tory spinners want to talk about anything other than the hilariously bad tory polling Mike highlights, but rest assured, by the time the independence referendum gets down to the campaign proper in the last few months you will hear the same whining from them as before when they tried to get the subject banned.
Suggest you post it again as many people may have missed it.
Actual votes cast on 2nd May in the county council and unitary council elections (using highest vote in multi-member divisions):
Con: 2,030,456
Lab: 1,277,535
UKIP: 1,183,836
LD: 818,076
Green: 207,225
PC: 9,021
Others: 407,106
Total: 5,933,255
Percentages:
Con: 34.22%
Lab: 21.53%
UKIP: 19.95%
LD: 13.79%
Green: 3.49%
PC: 0.15%
Others: 6.86%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
Rallings & Thrasher national projections:
Lab: 29%
Con: 26%
UKIP: 22%
LD: 13%
Difference between results and projection:
Lab +7%
Con -8%
UKIP +2%
LD -1%
Okay......
"Some argue that the solution is therefore to hold a straight in-out referendum now.
I understand the impatience of wanting to make that choice immediately.
But I don't believe that to make a decision at this moment is the right way forward, either for Britain or for Europe as a whole.
A vote today between the status quo and leaving would be an entirely false choice.
Of course Britain could make her own way in the world, outside the EU, if we chose to do so. So could any other member state.
But the question we will have to ask ourselves is this: is that the very best future for our country?
We will have to weigh carefully where our true national interest lies.
Alone, we would be free to take our own decisions, just as we would be freed of our solemn obligation to defend our allies if we left Nato. But we don't leave Nato because it is in our national interest to stay and benefit from its collective defence guarantee.
We have more power and influence – whether implementing sanctions against Iran or Syria, or promoting democracy in Burma – if we can act together.
If we leave the EU, we cannot of course leave Europe. It will remain for many years our biggest market, and forever our geographical neighbourhood. We are tied by a complex web of legal commitments.
Hundreds of thousands of British people now take for granted their right to work, live or retire in any other EU country.
Even if we pulled out completely, decisions made in the EU would continue to have a profound effect on our country. But we would have lost all our remaining vetoes and our voice in those decisions.
We would need to weigh up very carefully the consequences of no longer being inside the EU and its single market, as a full member.
Continued access to the single market is vital for British businesses and British jobs.
Since 2004, Britain has been the destination for one in five of all inward investments into Europe.
And being part of the single market has been key to that success."
Nope. That was Cammie in his Cast Iron EU referendum speech of a lifetime.
For those who still don't get it, not only is his Cast Iron Referendum clearly as conditional as Lisbon was but he's going to have to keep pushing the same line Clegg did about threats to jobs and scaremongering when Farage (UKIP 17%) keeps asking him why he doesn't want to leave the EU.
One of PB's contributors kindly made a graph of the AV vote.
If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.
Why aren't you demanding omnishambles Osbrowne go back to scotland and bang on about the economy if you seriously think he is such an asset to No?
Still waiting for an answer dear. Take your time.
And this helps your case how?
As Kellner observed:
"It’s not just that the gap between the two sides is so consistently large. It is that the history of referendums round the world tells us that when a society is divided, floating voters usually end up rejecting change. Think back, if you are old enough, to the 1979 referendum. With two weeks to go, polls found a 60-40 per cent lead for devolution. The lead almost completely evaporated in the final days."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/peter-kellner-supporters-of-devo-max-hold-the-key-1-2920663
So you and Kellner think Devolution is a good example of the status quo always winning. Devolution. One more time in case you still haven't grasped the obvious, Devolution.
LOL
The penny will drop sooner or later.
Why aren't you calling for Osbrowne to go back to scotland and make the same case?
Still waiting for an answer dear.
And while you're at it, how many times have you been on the ground actually helping in the preliminary independence leafleting for Yes or No, since you appear so sure that it gets decided now?
Ask yourself how someone looking at this for the first time would know what the red or blue line represent. And it seems to only go up to mid-2011. As ever with datasets, you should ask yourself why the start and end bounds were chosen. The start point is obvious:; but why does it end there? (See edit below)
A distinct C- in graph terms.
(Edti. Ahem. It was the AV vote, explaining the end date).
You are not even within hailing distance of the MOE of the "No" vote - it's been consistently 50:30 for quite a while now....but somehow "once the campaign starts" that's all going to change?
Okay......
The past few days of the tories banging on about Europe are but a small foretaste of what's to come. Tory backbenchers no longer trust his cast iron IN/OUT referendum. Before the locals Cammie lied to them by hinting that there would be legislation to address their concerns. There is no legislation. They were fooled again.
Link? Since you put it in quotes. Otherwise it's straw man nonsense and inept spin.
Once again, how many times have you been on the ground actually helping in the preliminary independence leafleting for Yes or No, since you appear so sure that it gets decided now more than a year from the referendum?
The tories will also have established that they don't have a clue which side they will support on IN/OUT. Cammie still doesn't know but his MPs and Farage certainly know he favours IN. So unless he chooses sides he's just going to look more and more incoherent and confused.
http://i.imgur.com/T3w4tCA.png
I actually use the Economist as a gold standard for charts in the media - they are not perfect, but they represent some sometimes complex data clearly in very small space, and include data source and keys.
As an example see today's daily chart on Ferguson's reign at Manchester United, although the comments seem to throw some doubt on the actual data.
https://plus.google.com/+TheEconomist/posts/AsW8k4ZkmG6
Is "Final weeks AND MONTHS" the same quote as "immediately before".
No it self-evidently isn't. So stop lying.
No it self-evidently isn't. So stop lying.
Was AV '"winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months."
Or not?
Make your mind up.
Anyone would think their campaign was going badly......oh.....
Local councils in many parts of Britain are
cutting some of their services. Thinking about the area where you live, which of these statements comes closest to your view?
Central government is mainly responsible, because it is cutting sharply the money it gives to the council where I live. 36 (-7)
UKIP Voters: 31
My local council is mainly responsible, because it could achieve most of the savings it needs by cutting costs, without cutting services. 29 (+2)
UKIP voters: 43
Neither - I am not aware of significant cuts to services in my area. 21(+1)
UKIP voters: 20
Do Not Know. 14 (+4)
UKIP Voters: 6
Next time should I just insult your graphs like the PBtories instead of thanking you for them?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeUM26YYbBE
"OMG I can't help noticing you're getting really muscly these days"
"In terms of its impact on GE2015 a 17% Ukip share still falls some way short of what’s required to win a seat."
Yet again a dilly distortionism. If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
Good odds as well.
I just wonder where those seats could be.
Seriously?
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
Who could possibly have seen this kind of tory EU argument coming?
Now why wasn't that mentioned by the Times tory poster at the top of the thread I wonder.
*chuckles*
Since the concept is clearly alien to you and I have to explain, it's because I wasn't lying or spinning. You wouldn't understand but rest assured those who aren't liars or spinners might.
What happened, I think, is this:
UKIP won 19.95% in actual contests. Rallings and Thrasher assume they would have got somewhere between 25% and 30% if they'd contested all the seats up for election. This figure was then reduced to 22% to take account of the areas that weren't voting like London, Scotland, Wales, etc.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/03/ukip-gains-local-elections
Actually, that sounds right, because 26% where they stood would give about 20% overall.
The UI on the site is pants - it has buttons (such as 'Why vote yes'), but clicking on them seems to do nothing. What it does do is produce another link above (seemingly like a single-item full-width menu), which you then have to click on to reach the relevant item.
I could not find how many signatories they had had - does anyone know?
But this tickled me, perhaps some on here should take note: And:
Ah! Could be - I certainly recall you mentioning it - what a coup :^ )
http://www.ukip.org/
That would tickle anyone. ;^ )
Cuadrilla, the firm behind the only exploratory dig to date near Blackpool, plans to drill a 3,000 feet deep well near the village of Balcombe in West Sussex.
In 2011, the company was forced to suspend activities in Lancashire after fracking - blasting underground rock to release trapped pockets of shale gas - was suspected of causing two small earthquakes.
In the face of strong local opposition, it has given an 'unequivocal assurance' it will not use fracking at the exploratory well. But it could be extended horizontally underground by 2,500ft and is intended to discover how much recoverable gas is below the Sussex countryside.
'Although this summer's work will be unobtrusive, we're fully aware that local people will have many questions about our plans and we'll do our best to answer all of them,' said Francis Egan, Cuadrilla's chief executive.
'During the coming months, we will discuss our plans with residents and they will be able to visit the site to see for themselves what our work involves.' Cuadrilla, which won planning permission for the work in 2010, promised to hold extensive technical, environmental and public consultations if oil or gas are found... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2321680/Fracking-firm-drill-3-000ft-Sussex-test-gas-Home-Counties.html?ico=news^headlines
The difference for UKIP compared with previous elections that there'd be is that in 2015, they'd have massively more credibility as a contender. They'd have been the third (or higher?) party in the country for more than two years, with two very strong council election performances and another in the Euros. They'd probably have shoehorned Farage into the leaders' debates (I can't see them scoring 17%+ without a presence there as that alone would tend to sideline them - though if they had been mid- to high-teens for half the parliament, I can't see him not being there). The likelihood is that in a few constituencies, things would 'click', and their candidate would benefit sufficiently to win.
Their membership is definitely rising and that's going to matter more and more. It won't work everywhere but it just needs to work once or twice.
Whichever way the leadership debates go Farage wins. He gets excluded it will just galvanise his base and cement him as an anti-politics protest vote just at the time that will seem very attractive since austerity isn't going anywhere soon.
@PeterWatt123: My post for @LabourUncut - One Nation Labour; what is it? http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/05/09/what-is-one-nation-labour/
Incompetent
Spinner
Liar
Chicken
Dumb
Whining
Needs their eyes examined
A bit much for you
Wouldn't understand
Struggling as predicted
And from just one poster!
Quite the role model.
I had thought the PBModerator yesterday asked people lay off this sort of stuff.
It doesn't bother me as clearly the greater the vituperation the weaker their case.......
Yup that's pretty desperate too. Action Dave in sheep wrestling competition, all we need now is Nick Clegg saved my hamster and we've got the set. All those years studying PPE and they're little more than extras in You've been framed.
Hilariously oblivious as always.
"We’ve got another round of local by-elections tonight with possible prospects for Ukip."
Might this have an impact? And the killer quote.
"Cameron’s promise of renegotiation is just an insincere ploy. Let’s hope the voters have more guts than their leaders "
Triumph for the fops? I expect so.
Just over a day until P1 of the Spanish Grand Prix. I'd need to check, but I think it's being shown live, which is nice.
Also, just got my first Journey to Altmortis review, which is surprisingly quick (and delightful, five stars).
I think ewe are being a bit unfair on our heroic sheep-saving Prime Minister.
@afneil: Mori poll shows support for Scottish independence down three points to 31%, support for Union up four points to 59%. Tough time for Alex
@afneil: Interesting that Scots women are especially in favour of the Union.
Changes over the past week...
Con10 voters now voting
Con 66% (-11)
Lab 6% (+2)
LD 2% (+1)
Ukip 25% (+9)
Green 1% (--)
LD10 voters now voting
Con 10% (+2)
Lab 27% (-7)
LD 41% (--)
Ukip 12% (+4)
Green 8% (+3)
On that note, a woman whose name/job I forget (sorry, whoever you are) recently said as much about women drivers trying to get into F1. Namely, they'll almost always have more of a sense of self-preservation than a man in the same position and brake a tiny bit earlier. However, in an F1 car that tiny bit is a huge difference.
I suspect that Cameron is going to have to reposition himself on this somewhat. His position at the moment is that he wants to renegotiate a better, looser arrangement for the UK and then sell that to the UK public in a referendum. I suspect that over the coming months it will sound more and more like, "well I will give it my best shot and then we will have to see" evolving into "if I don't get what I want then I will not be able to recommend it to the British people".
In short, under pressure not only from UKIP but also significant chunks of their own party I think by the next election the tories' commitment to the EU will be a lot more nuanced than it is right now. And I think I for one will be quite happy for that. The europhiles are losing the substance of the argument and the eurozone crisis is not a helpful backdrop to them. What will Ed do?
"At this maximum point UKIP increases Labour’s lead over the Conservatives by about 5 percentage points, a potentially election-wrecking margin. "
http://survation.com/2013/05/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/
The EU is an enormous missed opportunity.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/08/nigel-farage-toff-david-cameron
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/5/14524.html
This sounds comparable to Ferrari's wind-tunnel miscalibration, which sounds minor but probably cost the team the title in 2012 and stunted their development in recent years (not this year, though).
If McLaren can't sort this it could also ruin their 2014 hopes. A raft of major regulation changes are difficult enough without the reality not matching up to predicted performance.