Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the l

SystemSystem Posts: 11,793
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm

The figures from the latest News International daily poll by YouGov are above and show the continued damage that the dramatic rise of Ukip is having particularly on the Tories.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,333

    Times/Mori Scotland polling (they ask the same question as the proposed referendum question)

    (Changes from the last poll in Feb)

    Independence 31(-3)

    Remaining in the Union 59 (+4)

    Undecided 10 (-1)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,333
    Looks like George Osborne's intervention on Scottish events has helped those wanting to keep Scotland in the Union.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,333
    Just back from the watching the latest Star Trek film.

    Flipping awesome.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,333
    On topic, looks like UKIP are getting a bit of a boost post the locals.

    Now if they top the polls in The Euros next year will they get a similar boost?

    And on that note, bed.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Expect to see many more posts about "fops" and many less on next year's referendum.

    Given that the tradition not just in the UK but globally is for referendums to swing towards no/the status quo unless much changes it seems that the chances of the referendum passing are slimmer than those of the next election providing a Tory landslide majority.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2013
    FPT
    @AndyJS
    Thanks for the spreadsheets and work involved. A great source of information.
    Could you copyright them in case lazy media and political organisations intend using them?
    Thanks to RobD as well.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197
    edited May 2013

    FPT
    @AndyJS
    Thanks for the spreadsheets and work involved. A great source of information.
    Could you copyright them in case lazy media and political organisations intend using them?
    Thanks to RobD as well.

    2014 will be more snazzy, I promise :) More in-depth seat change stats, for a start. Saying that, if I'm going to do ward by ward updates to the spreadsheet, I may need assistance!
  • Options
    StickytrollStickytroll Posts: 30
    Cameron must GO!
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    If the incompetent tory spinners are so sure omnishambles Osbrowne is such an asset to the unionist No side then why don't they send him to scotland every week? Maybe they're just chicken.

    After all, his master strategy of banging on about Europe, welfare and immigration was clearly a success in the locals and the polling, wasn't it?

    "YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm"

    *innocent face*

    For those too dumb to realise it SLAB were beating the SNP by double figures before it got to the final couple of months of the scottish election campaign proper. Result, SNP landslide.

    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not.

    No surprise the tory spinners want to talk about anything other than the hilariously bad tory polling Mike highlights, but rest assured, by the time the independence referendum gets down to the campaign proper in the last few months you will hear the same whining from them as before when they tried to get the subject banned.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    FPT: AndyJS - thanks for the spreadsheets and for all your hard work.

    Suggest you post it again as many people may have missed it.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't know whether you can copy information based on election results. Maybe the particular format could be copyrighted.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    FPT:

    Actual votes cast on 2nd May in the county council and unitary council elections (using highest vote in multi-member divisions):

    Con: 2,030,456
    Lab: 1,277,535
    UKIP: 1,183,836
    LD: 818,076
    Green: 207,225
    PC: 9,021
    Others: 407,106

    Total: 5,933,255

    Percentages:

    Con: 34.22%
    Lab: 21.53%
    UKIP: 19.95%
    LD: 13.79%
    Green: 3.49%
    PC: 0.15%
    Others: 6.86%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0

    Rallings & Thrasher national projections:

    Lab: 29%
    Con: 26%
    UKIP: 22%
    LD: 13%

    Difference between results and projection:

    Lab +7%
    Con -8%
    UKIP +2%
    LD -1%
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not..

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Looks like George Osborne's intervention on Scottish events has helped those wanting to keep Scotland in the Union.

    Jest as the separatists predicted......not......
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Is this Clegg back on to his EU 'scaremongering' just to upset the PBtories?

    "Some argue that the solution is therefore to hold a straight in-out referendum now.

    I understand the impatience of wanting to make that choice immediately.

    But I don't believe that to make a decision at this moment is the right way forward, either for Britain or for Europe as a whole.

    A vote today between the status quo and leaving would be an entirely false choice.

    Of course Britain could make her own way in the world, outside the EU, if we chose to do so. So could any other member state.

    But the question we will have to ask ourselves is this: is that the very best future for our country?

    We will have to weigh carefully where our true national interest lies.

    Alone, we would be free to take our own decisions, just as we would be freed of our solemn obligation to defend our allies if we left Nato. But we don't leave Nato because it is in our national interest to stay and benefit from its collective defence guarantee.

    We have more power and influence – whether implementing sanctions against Iran or Syria, or promoting democracy in Burma – if we can act together.

    If we leave the EU, we cannot of course leave Europe. It will remain for many years our biggest market, and forever our geographical neighbourhood. We are tied by a complex web of legal commitments.

    Hundreds of thousands of British people now take for granted their right to work, live or retire in any other EU country.

    Even if we pulled out completely, decisions made in the EU would continue to have a profound effect on our country. But we would have lost all our remaining vetoes and our voice in those decisions.

    We would need to weigh up very carefully the consequences of no longer being inside the EU and its single market, as a full member.

    Continued access to the single market is vital for British businesses and British jobs.

    Since 2004, Britain has been the destination for one in five of all inward investments into Europe.

    And being part of the single market has been key to that success."


    Nope. That was Cammie in his Cast Iron EU referendum speech of a lifetime.
    For those who still don't get it, not only is his Cast Iron Referendum clearly as conditional as Lisbon was but he's going to have to keep pushing the same line Clegg did about threats to jobs and scaremongering when Farage (UKIP 17%) keeps asking him why he doesn't want to leave the EU.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    Only an inept tory spinner would think so. It's obviously that a referendum isn't decided till the campaign really gets going in the final months and then when the votes get counted.

    One of PB's contributors kindly made a graph of the AV vote.

    image

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.

    Why aren't you demanding omnishambles Osbrowne go back to scotland and bang on about the economy if you seriously think he is such an asset to No?
    Still waiting for an answer dear. Take your time. :)



  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,176
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    Actual votes cast on 2nd May in the county council and unitary council elections (using highest vote in multi-member divisions):

    Con: 2,030,456
    Lab: 1,277,535
    UKIP: 1,183,836
    LD: 818,076
    Green: 207,225
    PC: 9,021
    Others: 407,106

    Total: 5,933,255

    Percentages:

    Con: 34.22%
    Lab: 21.53%
    UKIP: 19.95%
    LD: 13.79%
    Green: 3.49%
    PC: 0.15%
    Others: 6.86%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0

    Rallings & Thrasher national projections:

    Lab: 29%
    Con: 26%
    UKIP: 22%
    LD: 13%

    Difference between results and projection:

    Lab +7%
    Con -8%
    UKIP +2%
    LD -1%

    Great stuff. Makes you wonder how the hell Rallings and Thrasher managed to get a national projection for UKIP that was higher than their actual vote in the shires. They must have been under a lot of time pressure - did they forget to fill their Excel sheet all the way down to the bottom?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.
    Looks to me that AV only enjoyed a significant lead ~10 months ahead of the referendum, after that it was pretty much level pegging until a month before when the Status Quo re asserted itself.

    And this helps your case how?

    As Kellner observed:

    "It’s not just that the gap between the two sides is so consistently large. It is that the history of referendums round the world tells us that when a society is divided, floating voters usually end up rejecting change. Think back, if you are old enough, to the 1979 referendum. With two weeks to go, polls found a 60-40 per cent lead for devolution. The lead almost completely evaporated in the final days."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/peter-kellner-supporters-of-devo-max-hold-the-key-1-2920663
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,176

    Mick_Pork said:

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.
    Looks to me that AV only enjoyed a significant lead ~10 months ahead of the referendum, after that it was pretty much level pegging until a month before when the Status Quo re asserted itself.

    And this helps your case how?

    As Kellner observed:

    "It’s not just that the gap between the two sides is so consistently large. It is that the history of referendums round the world tells us that when a society is divided, floating voters usually end up rejecting change. Think back, if you are old enough, to the 1979 referendum. With two weeks to go, polls found a 60-40 per cent lead for devolution. The lead almost completely evaporated in the final days."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/peter-kellner-supporters-of-devo-max-hold-the-key-1-2920663
    If the Tories and UKIP talk about leaving the EU enough Salmond may be able to make independence in Europe look like the conservative, status quo choice...
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013


    Looks to me that AV only enjoyed a significant lead

    Yes to AV is the Blue line petal. Since you are struggling as predicted that graph shows extreme fluctuations and jumps in the lead multiple times as the referendum got closer.

    "Think back, if you are old enough, to the 1979 referendum. With two weeks to go, polls found a 60-40 per cent lead for devolution. The lead almost completely evaporated in the final days."

    So you and Kellner think Devolution is a good example of the status quo always winning. Devolution. One more time in case you still haven't grasped the obvious, Devolution.

    LOL

    The penny will drop sooner or later.

    Why aren't you calling for Osbrowne to go back to scotland and make the same case?
    Still waiting for an answer dear.

    And while you're at it, how many times have you been on the ground actually helping in the preliminary independence leafleting for Yes or No, since you appear so sure that it gets decided now?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    ...
    One of PB's contributors kindly made a graph of the AV vote.

    image

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.

    ...
    That is a terrible chart. Firstly there is no key to explain what the lines represent (whilst that might be your error in not reproducing it in the text, it should really be in the graphic), and the square blobs representing the data points hide and obfuscate some of the data.

    Ask yourself how someone looking at this for the first time would know what the red or blue line represent. And it seems to only go up to mid-2011. As ever with datasets, you should ask yourself why the start and end bounds were chosen. The start point is obvious:; but why does it end there? (See edit below)

    A distinct C- in graph terms.

    (Edti. Ahem. It was the AV vote, explaining the end date).

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes to AV is the Blue line petal. Since you are struggling as predicted that graph shows extreme fluctuations and jumps in the lead multiple times as the referendum got closer.

    Yes - and it's only significant lead was 10 months out - not "immediately before" as you keep claiming - after that both were within MOE of each other. And then they lost.

    You are not even within hailing distance of the MOE of the "No" vote - it's been consistently 50:30 for quite a while now....but somehow "once the campaign starts" that's all going to change?

    Okay......
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    If the Tories and UKIP talk about leaving the EU enough Salmond may be able to make independence in Europe look like the conservative, status quo choice...

    IF? I'm afraid there's no if about it. Pre-locals there was a small chance that UKIP would fade and have an unspectacular locals and then EU elections, but not any more. Nobody seriously thinks the EU elections are going to be dominated by the economy. It's going to be wall to wall Europe and splits next year.


    The past few days of the tories banging on about Europe are but a small foretaste of what's to come. Tory backbenchers no longer trust his cast iron IN/OUT referendum. Before the locals Cammie lied to them by hinting that there would be legislation to address their concerns. There is no legislation. They were fooled again.

  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Mick_Pork said:



    For those too dumb to realise it SLAB were beating the SNP by double figures before it got to the final couple of months of the scottish election campaign proper. Result, SNP landslide.

    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not.

    In both instances people voted for the status quo and against change. However I doubt that's the point you're trying to make.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197

    Mick_Pork said:

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    ...
    One of PB's contributors kindly made a graph of the AV vote.

    image

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.

    ...
    That is a terrible chart. Firstly there is no key to explain what the lines represent (whilst that might be your error in not reproducing it in the text, it should really be in the graphic), and the square blobs representing the data points hide and obfuscate some of the data.

    Ask yourself how someone looking at this for the first time would know what the red or blue line represent. And it seems to only go up to mid-2011. As ever with datasets, you should ask yourself why the start and end bounds were chosen. The start point is obvious:; but why does it end there?

    A distinct C- in graph terms.

    Sorry, that was one of mine - it was made quickly to highlight a point. Anyway, I am sure we know which side won the AV referendum, and can therefore decipher which is 'Yes' and which is 'No'. The start bound was chosen because this was the first poll on the wikipedia page about AV! Everything else I blame on Excel and its general crumminess :p
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Mick_Pork said:

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    ...
    One of PB's contributors kindly made a graph of the AV vote.

    image

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.

    ...
    That is a terrible chart.
    I suspect it also has data from multiple polling companies which could also account for a large amount of variation due to methodology and different questions - I'm not convinced its helpful - and it certainly does not support the Separatists case that a change can overtake the status quo in the last few months - if anything it demonstrates the reverse.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197


    I suspect it also has data from multiple polling companies which could also account for a large amount of variation due to methodology and different questions - I'm not convinced its helpful - and it certainly does not support the Separatists case that a change can overtake the status quo in the last few months - if anything it demonstrates the reverse.

    Yeah it contains all polling organisations. The striking thing was the jump in the 'No' share just before the referendum, while the 'Yes' remains static - the DKs heavily voted No it seams.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Yes - and it's only significant lead was 10 months out

    The gap also closed after that 10 months more than once and anyone who thinks that shows a steady lead on either side as the months drew in needs their eyes examined.

    not "immediately before" as you keep claiming


    Link? Since you put it in quotes. Otherwise it's straw man nonsense and inept spin.

    Once again, how many times have you been on the ground actually helping in the preliminary independence leafleting for Yes or No, since you appear so sure that it gets decided now more than a year from the referendum?

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,176
    Mick_Pork said:

    If the Tories and UKIP talk about leaving the EU enough Salmond may be able to make independence in Europe look like the conservative, status quo choice...

    IF? I'm afraid there's no if about it. Pre-locals there was a small chance that UKIP would fade and have an unspectacular locals and then EU elections, but not any more. Nobody seriously thinks the EU elections are going to be dominated by the economy. It's going to be wall to wall Europe and splits next year.


    The past few days of the tories banging on about Europe are but a small foretaste of what's to come. Tory backbenchers no longer trust his cast iron IN/OUT referendum. Before the locals Cammie lied to them by hinting that there would be legislation to address their concerns. There is no legislation. They were fooled again.

    The timing works well for Salmond, doesn't it? The Tories will spend April and May arguing that they're absolutely serious about the referendum and "out" is a real option. Then they go into the referendum campaign having established that the choice is stable continued EU membership or some kind of unknown leap in the dark.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    From a referendum that will happen to one that won't.
    Kilsally ‏@Kilsally 4h

    Ukip: Farage calls for EU referendum 'before next election' - video http://gu.com/p/3fj36/tw via @guardian
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:


    I suspect it also has data from multiple polling companies which could also account for a large amount of variation due to methodology and different questions - I'm not convinced its helpful - and it certainly does not support the Separatists case that a change can overtake the status quo in the last few months - if anything it demonstrates the reverse.

    The striking thing was the jump in the 'No' share just before the referendum, while the 'Yes' remains static - the DKs heavily voted No it seams.
    Oh dear.....don't tell the separatists not another poll where the status quo triumphed in the absence of consensus......

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes - and it's only significant lead was 10 months out

    The gap also closed after that 10 months more than once and anyone who thinks that shows a steady lead on either side as the months drew in needs their eyes examined.

    not "immediately before" as you keep claiming

    Link? Since you put it in quotes. Otherwise it's straw man nonsense and inept spin.
    How about:
    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not.
    "final weeks"....
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    The Tories will spend April and May arguing that they're absolutely serious about the referendum and "out" is a real option.

    Which faction? The tories who favour IN who will be led by Cammie and the tory leadership or the tory OUTs who won't and certainly won't want to be seen as supporting the leadership stance which Farage will have a whale of a time exposing again and again for the EU elections. Farage will underline that OUT is not just a referendum option but what he ans his party wants regardless of what Cammie postures on.

    Then they go into the referendum campaign having established that the choice is stable continued EU membership or some kind of unknown leap in the dark.

    The tories will also have established that they don't have a clue which side they will support on IN/OUT. Cammie still doesn't know but his MPs and Farage certainly know he favours IN. So unless he chooses sides he's just going to look more and more incoherent and confused.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197
    The comparison to AV isn't particularly flattering, the 'Yes' camp never consistently held leads as large as we are seeing for the 'No' camp now...

    http://i.imgur.com/T3w4tCA.png
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    RobD said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    So your argument is that even when well behind the status quo can still win?

    Okay......

    ...
    One of PB's contributors kindly made a graph of the AV vote.

    image

    If you need it explained just say. Understanding it may be a bit much for you admittedly.

    ...
    That is a terrible chart. Firstly there is no key to explain what the lines represent (whilst that might be your error in not reproducing it in the text, it should really be in the graphic), and the square blobs representing the data points hide and obfuscate some of the data.

    Ask yourself how someone looking at this for the first time would know what the red or blue line represent. And it seems to only go up to mid-2011. As ever with datasets, you should ask yourself why the start and end bounds were chosen. The start point is obvious:; but why does it end there?

    A distinct C- in graph terms.

    Sorry, that was one of mine - it was made quickly to highlight a point. Anyway, I am sure we know which side won the AV referendum, and can therefore decipher which is 'Yes' and which is 'No'. The start bound was chosen because this was the first poll on the wikipedia page about AV! Everything else I blame on Excel and its general crumminess :p
    Fair enough. It's just that I'm getting a little fed up with poor-quality charts on the 'net. PB's new threader charts tend to be much better - clear and concise.

    I actually use the Economist as a gold standard for charts in the media - they are not perfect, but they represent some sometimes complex data clearly in very small space, and include data source and keys.

    As an example see today's daily chart on Ferguson's reign at Manchester United, although the comments seem to throw some doubt on the actual data.
    https://plus.google.com/+TheEconomist/posts/AsW8k4ZkmG6
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197


    Fair enough. It's just that I'm getting a little fed up with poor-quality charts on the 'net. PB's new threader charts tend to be much better - clear and concise.

    I actually use the Economist as a gold standard for charts in the media - they are not perfect, but they represent some sometimes complex data clearly in very small space, and include data source and keys.

    As an example see today's daily chart on Ferguson's reign at Manchester United, although the comments seem to throw some doubt on the actual data.
    https://plus.google.com/+TheEconomist/posts/AsW8k4ZkmG6

    I just posted one of my better ones with the latest independence polling. I must say I never use Excel for professional plotting, too slow and restrictive.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    The comparison to AV isn't particularly flattering, the 'Yes' camp never consistently held leads as large as we are seeing for the 'No' camp now...

    http://i.imgur.com/T3w4tCA.png

    But leads they had and the polling on indy is mixed and goes well back as you know and were kind enough to take the time to do a chart on.

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months.

    Mick_Pork said:

    anyone who thinks that shows a steady lead on either side as the months drew in needs their eyes examined.

    Opticians appointment booked?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes - and it's only significant lead was 10 months out

    The gap also closed after that 10 months more than once and anyone who thinks that shows a steady lead on either side as the months drew in needs their eyes examined.

    not "immediately before" as you keep claiming

    Link? Since you put it in quotes. Otherwise it's straw man nonsense and inept spin.
    How about:
    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not.
    "final weeks"....

    Is "Final weeks AND MONTHS" the same quote as "immediately before".

    No it self-evidently isn't. So stop lying.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    The comparison to AV isn't particularly flattering, the 'Yes' camp never consistently held leads as large as we are seeing for the 'No' camp now...

    http://i.imgur.com/T3w4tCA.png

    But leads they had and the polling on indy leads is mixed as you know and were kind enough to take the time to do a chart on.

    Noe one can look at those two plots and say the situations are similar. The AV campaign was closer, with frequent cross-over in VI right up until the late surge for No at the end of the campaign. For the current independence campaign, No have spent almost a year and a half 10 points (or more) ahead of Yes. I agree with your point that it is all decided by how the DKs break, but if there is already a deficit of 15 points, its going to be pretty tough (c.f. No to AV had only a ~5 point deficit).

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013


    Opticians appointment booked?

    Are tory spinners too incompetent to know what "before" means?

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes - and it's only significant lead was 10 months out

    The gap also closed after that 10 months more than once and anyone who thinks that shows a steady lead on either side as the months drew in needs their eyes examined.

    not "immediately before" as you keep claiming

    Link? Since you put it in quotes. Otherwise it's straw man nonsense and inept spin.
    How about:
    Yes to AV was winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months. Do we have AV? No we do not.
    "final weeks"....
    Is "Final weeks AND MONTHS" the same quote as "immediately before".

    No it self-evidently isn't. So stop lying.


    Was AV '"winning before that campaign got down to the final weeks and months."

    Or not?

    Make your mind up.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:


    Opticians appointment booked?

    Are tory spinners too thick to know what "before" means?

    I love it when Separatist Spinners contradict themselves within the same thread!

    Anyone would think their campaign was going badly......oh.....

  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Local councils in many parts of Britain are
    cutting some of their services. Thinking about the area where you live, which of these statements comes closest to your view?

    Central government is mainly responsible, because it is cutting sharply the money it gives to the council where I live. 36 (-7)
    UKIP Voters: 31

    My local council is mainly responsible, because it could achieve most of the savings it needs by cutting costs, without cutting services. 29 (+2)
    UKIP voters: 43

    Neither - I am not aware of significant cuts to services in my area. 21(+1)
    UKIP voters: 20

    Do Not Know. 14 (+4)
    UKIP Voters: 6
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    it is all decided by how the DKs break

    You already know the narrative on the DK's being always being a set figure not to be the case. Yes has led in the past. Minds can be changed. The ground campaign will be crucial. Right now the scottish public are almost totally indifferent to it and consider it a matter for later. I know that because unlike the tory spinner I have been helping with leafleting on the ground and you simply don't get much of a reaction or interest. Nor was that expected this far out.

    Next time should I just insult your graphs like the PBtories instead of thanking you for them?

  • Options
    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (OT) At about this time yesterday, Plato said that Tom Daley might have re-tweeted a message which I tweeted on his birthday (or whatever). I don't remember him doing so, but it has occurred to me that what Plato might be remembering is the contribution which I made to a documentary programme about Tom which was broadcast on BBC1 on 12th October 2010. At about 3:21 in this clip, Tom (assisted by his colleague Tonia Couch) is opening and reading the card which I sent to him for his 16th Birthday:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeUM26YYbBE

    "OMG I can't help noticing you're getting really muscly these days"
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Oh dear. The kippers aren't amused.
    Stephen Ulster ‏@yogs1961 14m

    Now PM admits he CAN'T guarantee EU referendum as voters back bid to quit http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/397928/Now-PM-admits-he-CAN-T-guarantee-EU-referendum-as-voters-back-bid-to-quit#.UYszNse89ww.twitter … YET MORE LIES EXPOSED ?
    Still, they have the EU elections to look forward to. As does the incompetent fop.

  • Options
    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (Back On Topic)

    "In terms of its impact on GE2015 a 17% Ukip share still falls some way short of what’s required to win a seat."

    Yet again a dilly distortionism. If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    JohnLoony said:

    If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.

    Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.

    Good odds as well.

    I just wonder where those seats could be.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    it is all decided by how the DKs break

    You already know the narrative on the DK's being always being a set figure not to be the case. Yes has led in the past. Minds can be changed. The ground campaign will be crucial. Right now the scottish public are almost totally indifferent to it and consider it a matter for later. I know that because unlike the tory spinner I have been helping with leafleting on the ground and you simply don't get much of a reaction or interest. Nor was that expected this far out.

    Next time should I just insult your graphs like the PBtories instead of thanking you for them?

    Well I am going to enjoy the next year of polls come in, I just wish they weren't so infrequent! And thanks for the thanks!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197
    tim said:

    "In private, Cameron calls affordable, quality childcare the ‘Holy Grail’ of British politics. "

    Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

    Knowing Cam's luck it will turn into the Holy Hand Grenade!
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Portillo backing EU withdrawal in the Times...
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    it is all decided by how the DKs break

    on the ground and you simply don't get much of a reaction or interest.
    And that's good news for "Yes" because......

  • Options
    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Mick_Pork said:

    JohnLoony said:

    If UKIP really did get 17% in a general election, it would be very likely to get some seats - albeit maybe only 2 or 3.

    Mike has them on a bet for two IIRC.

    Good odds as well.

    I just wonder where those seats could be.
    FWIW, I don't think UKIP will get anything like as much as 17% in the next GE (they will be lucky to get much more than 4% or 5%) but if they did get 17% then they would win one or other of Boston & Skegness, Eastleigh, Thanet, East Bumpkinshire, that sort of thing.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,197

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    it is all decided by how the DKs break

    on the ground and you simply don't get much of a reaction or interest.
    And that's good news for "Yes" because......

    Well they don't want them to expend all their patriotic fervor before polling day, do they ;)
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Socrates said:

    Portillo backing EU withdrawal in the Times...



    Seriously?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

    Who could possibly have seen this kind of tory EU argument coming?

    Now why wasn't that mentioned by the Times tory poster at the top of the thread I wonder.

    *chuckles*

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    JohnLoony said:



    FWIW, I don't think UKIP will get anything like as much as 17% in the next GE (they will be lucky to get much more than 4% or 5%)

    Neither do I John. I'm thinking 6-8% myself.
    JohnLoony said:

    but if they did get 17% then they would win one or other of Boston & Skegness, Eastleigh, Thanet, East Bumpkinshire, that sort of thing.

    Yes Eastleigh is clearly hugely attractive. Thanks for the others.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    it is all decided by how the DKs break

    on the ground and you simply don't get much of a reaction or interest.
    And that's good news for "Yes" because......

    It's not particularly.

    Since the concept is clearly alien to you and I have to explain, it's because I wasn't lying or spinning. You wouldn't understand but rest assured those who aren't liars or spinners might.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Edmundintokyo

    What happened, I think, is this:

    UKIP won 19.95% in actual contests. Rallings and Thrasher assume they would have got somewhere between 25% and 30% if they'd contested all the seats up for election. This figure was then reduced to 22% to take account of the areas that weren't voting like London, Scotland, Wales, etc.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    In the biggest surge by a fourth party in England since the second world war, Ukip averaged 26% of the vote in council wards where it stood, according to a BBC estimate."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/03/ukip-gains-local-elections

    Actually, that sounds right, because 26% where they stood would give about 20% overall.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    I just went to the Yes Scotland website to see how the Yes Declaration was doing in terms of signatures.

    The UI on the site is pants - it has buttons (such as 'Why vote yes'), but clicking on them seems to do nothing. What it does do is produce another link above (seemingly like a single-item full-width menu), which you then have to click on to reach the relevant item.

    I could not find how many signatories they had had - does anyone know?

    But this tickled me, perhaps some on here should take note:
    Here are some guidelines on the online behaviour we expect from our supporters. Our campaign is positive and rooted in hope. How we interact with people must reflect that.

    Courtesy: Be polite to everybody and show respect to those who think differently.
    Responsibility: Control the impulse to react before thinking.
    Imagination: Explain complex ideas in a way that is engaging, interesting and relevant to the people you're talking to.
    Integrity: Be honest and open about who we are and what we say and believe.
    Collaboration: Work together with people from all walks of life for a better country.
    And:
    Politics is all about different viewpoints. Never make personal attacks on any individual or engage in general abuse of opponents. The key to victory is positive persuasion. Our case is a strong one and there is no need to become involved in personal attacks.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    tim said:

    "In private, Cameron calls affordable, quality childcare the ‘Holy Grail’ of British politics. "

    Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

    Knowing Cam's luck it will turn into the Holy Hand Grenade!
    As I recall the Holy Handgrenade of Antioch was very effective once the instructions were clarified, and killed the maneating rabbit of aaaaaaaaaaargh. EdM needs to worry, bearing some resemblence to the rabbit.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    it is all decided by how the DKs break

    on the ground and you simply don't get much of a reaction or interest.
    And that's good news for "Yes" because......

    It's not particularly.

    Since the concept is clearly alien to you and I have to explain, it's because I wasn't lying or spinning. You wouldn't understand but rest assured those who aren't liars or spinners might.
    It's not been me mis-representing the AV polling on this thread.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    Well they don't want them to expend all their patriotic fervor before polling day, do they ;)

    Unfortunate though it may be it also means the GOTV and who is most active on the ground are going to be crucial. Driving down turnout with relentless negative campaigning is not a particularly wise move in those circumstances.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @JohnLoony

    Ah! Could be - I certainly recall you mentioning it - what a coup :^ )
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The new "bells and whistles" UKIP website:

    http://www.ukip.org/
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    In the biggest surge by a fourth party in England since the second world war, Ukip averaged 26% of the vote in council wards where it stood, according to a BBC estimate."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/03/ukip-gains-local-elections

    Actually, that sounds right, because 26% where they stood would give about 20% overall.

    Thanks for all your work. Some interesting nuggets to be found in all that data.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Banging on about Europe. The Osbrowne master strategy that keeps on giving. To UKIP.
    Sue ‏@English_Woman 2m

    Leave the 'disastrous' EU, urges Tory heavyweight Michael Portillo http://bit.ly/16iRktH WE NEED MORE PEOPLE TO SPEAK OUT #VOTEUKIP #No2EU
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    The new "bells and whistles" UKIP website:

    http://www.ukip.org/

    Now all we need is a PBtory spinner to rubbish it and Cammie not to make any personal and abusive attacks on UKIP voters by calling them "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists".

    That would tickle anyone. ;^ )

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    Golly, I used to frequent the Balcombe Social Club...

    Cuadrilla, the firm behind the only exploratory dig to date near Blackpool, plans to drill a 3,000 feet deep well near the village of Balcombe in West Sussex.

    In 2011, the company was forced to suspend activities in Lancashire after fracking - blasting underground rock to release trapped pockets of shale gas - was suspected of causing two small earthquakes.

    In the face of strong local opposition, it has given an 'unequivocal assurance' it will not use fracking at the exploratory well. But it could be extended horizontally underground by 2,500ft and is intended to discover how much recoverable gas is below the Sussex countryside.

    'Although this summer's work will be unobtrusive, we're fully aware that local people will have many questions about our plans and we'll do our best to answer all of them,' said Francis Egan, Cuadrilla's chief executive.

    'During the coming months, we will discuss our plans with residents and they will be able to visit the site to see for themselves what our work involves.' Cuadrilla, which won planning permission for the work in 2010, promised to hold extensive technical, environmental and public consultations if oil or gas are found... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2321680/Fracking-firm-drill-3-000ft-Sussex-test-gas-Home-Counties.html?ico=news^headlines
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,496
    Mick_pork - re UKIP seats. I'd agree with that. If they were to score 17%, I'd make it better than evens that they'd win at least one. They would have (for them) an unfortunately evenly spread vote but at that level I still think there'd be one or two places where they might make it. In addition to those already mentioned, Great Yarmouth might be a possible.

    The difference for UKIP compared with previous elections that there'd be is that in 2015, they'd have massively more credibility as a contender. They'd have been the third (or higher?) party in the country for more than two years, with two very strong council election performances and another in the Euros. They'd probably have shoehorned Farage into the leaders' debates (I can't see them scoring 17%+ without a presence there as that alone would tend to sideline them - though if they had been mid- to high-teens for half the parliament, I can't see him not being there). The likelihood is that in a few constituencies, things would 'click', and their candidate would benefit sufficiently to win.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    tim said:

    It's Action Man Wonk

    Joey Jones ‏@joeyjonessky 18m
    @Ed_Miliband "a bit like an action hero". http://bit.ly/10HjqGm . never thought i'd tweet that.

    On the day the Tories go below core vote, heading for Fop Core.

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    tim said:

    It's Action Man Wonk

    Joey Jones ‏@joeyjonessky 18m
    @Ed_Miliband "a bit like an action hero". http://bit.ly/10HjqGm . never thought i'd tweet that.

    On the day the Tories go below core vote, heading for Fop Core.

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?
    I can see the Marvel comic spoofs already...
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @AndyJS and @RobD - may I add my thanks for all the data and analysis from the LEs - some fascinating stuff in there.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    They would have (for them) an unfortunately evenly spread vote but at that level I still think there'd be one or two places where they might make it. In addition to those already mentioned, Great Yarmouth might be a possible.

    They do seem to be fast getting the hand of targeting don't they?
    Their membership is definitely rising and that's going to matter more and more.

    The difference for UKIP compared with previous elections that there'd be is that in 2015, they'd have massively more credibility as a contender. They'd have been the third (or higher?) party in the country for more than two years, with two very strong council election performances and another in the Euros. They'd probably have shoehorned Farage into the leaders' debates (I can't see them scoring 17%+ without a presence there as that alone would tend to sideline them - though if they had been mid- to high-teens for half the parliament, I can't see him not being there). The likelihood is that in a few constituencies, things would 'click', and their candidate would benefit sufficiently to win.

    It won't work everywhere but it just needs to work once or twice.
    Whichever way the leadership debates go Farage wins. He gets excluded it will just galvanise his base and cement him as an anti-politics protest vote just at the time that will seem very attractive since austerity isn't going anywhere soon.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    Plato said:

    tim said:

    It's Action Man Wonk

    Joey Jones ‏@joeyjonessky 18m
    @Ed_Miliband "a bit like an action hero". http://bit.ly/10HjqGm . never thought i'd tweet that.

    On the day the Tories go below core vote, heading for Fop Core.

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?
    I can see the Marvel comic spoofs already...
    If we're going to have 2 years of this from all sides in the run up to a GE, it just shows how poor the current crop of leaders and their teams actually are. The Coalition have about a year in which they can do things but have run out of ideas and Ed hasn't had an idea since he became leader. Do they all use the same focus group ?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?

    @DPJHodges: "There was Ed Miliband’s face looking very concerned at me. I started to wonder how badly I’d banged my head". http://tinyurl.com/cs2v4qo
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    LabourUncut publish another Ed is crap thread

    @PeterWatt123: My post for @LabourUncut - One Nation Labour; what is it? http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/05/09/what-is-one-nation-labour/
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:

    It's Action Man Wonk

    Joey Jones ‏@joeyjonessky 18m
    @Ed_Miliband "a bit like an action hero". http://bit.ly/10HjqGm . never thought i'd tweet that.

    On the day the Tories go below core vote, heading for Fop Core.

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?
    It appears to be Sky, but it's just a funny story.

    Remember that Cameron had branded himself a fake in the eyes of the public with his bike and chauffeur episode, I doubt it'll have the same effect.

    Worryingly for the Conservatives, 37 per cent of people also rem­embered the 2006 story of leader David Cameron cycling to work, trailed by a chauffeur-driven car, in a botched attempt to display his green credentials.

    And anyway, with the Tories sinking to 27% it's the Chumocracy with the problems.
    And chasing the xenophobes while fellating them won't help



    Well tim, as you say Cameron went down this path of trying to make himself look normal, now Ed's doing the same. Ed looks like he'd wear his Y fronts on the outside but for all the wrong reasons. Shouldn't he just put out some policies if he wants to be on Sky ?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?

    As desperate as this?
    David Cameron wades into swamp to rescue sheep
    While lambs around the country are dying because of the unseasonably-cold spring weather, one sheep owes its life to David Cameron.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9964348/David-Cameron-wades-into-swamp-to-rescue-sheep.html
    Golly. I can see the Marvel comic spoofs already for both of them... ;^ )

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Never make personal attacks on any individual or engage in general abuse of opponents.

    A selection from today:

    Incompetent
    Spinner
    Liar
    Chicken
    Dumb
    Whining
    Needs their eyes examined
    A bit much for you
    Wouldn't understand
    Struggling as predicted

    And from just one poster!

    Quite the role model.

    I had thought the PBModerator yesterday asked people lay off this sort of stuff.

    It doesn't bother me as clearly the greater the vituperation the weaker their case.......
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    Mick_Pork said:

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?

    As desperate as this?
    David Cameron wades into swamp to rescue sheep
    While lambs around the country are dying because of the unseasonably-cold spring weather, one sheep owes its life to David Cameron.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9964348/David-Cameron-wades-into-swamp-to-rescue-sheep.html
    Golly. I can see the Marvel comic spoofs already for both of them... ;^ )



    Yup that's pretty desperate too. Action Dave in sheep wrestling competition, all we need now is Nick Clegg saved my hamster and we've got the set. All those years studying PPE and they're little more than extras in You've been framed.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    And from just one poster!

    Quite the role model.

    I had thought the PBModerator yesterday asked people lay off this sort of stuff.

    It doesn't bother me

    You can add Unspoofable to your whining.

    Hilariously oblivious as always.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    It's Action Man Wonk

    Joey Jones ‏@joeyjonessky 18m
    @Ed_Miliband "a bit like an action hero". http://bit.ly/10HjqGm . never thought i'd tweet that.

    On the day the Tories go below core vote, heading for Fop Core.

    Just desperate stuff. Does Labour now need to push this to make him seem human ?
    It appears to be Sky, but it's just a funny story.

    Remember that Cameron had branded himself a fake in the eyes of the public with his bike and chauffeur episode, I doubt it'll have the same effect.

    Worryingly for the Conservatives, 37 per cent of people also rem­embered the 2006 story of leader David Cameron cycling to work, trailed by a chauffeur-driven car, in a botched attempt to display his green credentials.

    And anyway, with the Tories sinking to 27% it's the Chumocracy with the problems.
    And chasing the xenophobes while fellating them won't help



    Well tim, as you say Cameron went down this path of trying to make himself look normal, now Ed's doing the same. Ed looks like he'd wear his Y fronts on the outside but for all the wrong reasons. Shouldn't he just put out some policies if he wants to be on Sky ?

    I doubt it was a set up like Dave's briefcase/bike or the televised Date Nights.
    really tim ? The journalist just happened to be on the spot and immediately phoned Sky ? Can't see it myself.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    On Topic.

    "We’ve got another round of local by-elections tonight with possible prospects for Ukip."

    Might this have an impact?
    politicshomeuk ‏@politicshomeuk 2m

    Michael Portillo leads today's Top Ten Must Reads: We don't share Europe's vision. So I want out http://polho.me/5at5
    And the killer quote.

    "Cameron’s promise of renegotiation is just an insincere ploy. Let’s hope the voters have more guts than their leaders "

    Triumph for the fops? I expect so. ;)

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,124
    Good morning, everyone.

    Just over a day until P1 of the Spanish Grand Prix. I'd need to check, but I think it's being shown live, which is nice.

    Also, just got my first Journey to Altmortis review, which is surprisingly quick (and delightful, five stars).

    I think ewe are being a bit unfair on our heroic sheep-saving Prime Minister.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    really tim ? The journalist just happened to be on the spot and immediately phoned Sky ? Can't see it myself.

    Have we seen any pictures of the sheep rescue? Plenty of pics of "Superhero Ed". Funny that...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brilliant news for the SNP

    @afneil: Mori poll shows support for Scottish independence down three points to 31%, support for Union up four points to 59%. Tough time for Alex
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Can we have 1000 posts on Eck's problem with women?

    @afneil: Interesting that Scots women are especially in favour of the Union.
  • Options
    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Not good polling for the Conservatives. Lots of voters heading to Ukip, but the question is whether it's temporary or not. Same goes for former Lib Dems voters, did they temporarily move to Labour, or they temporarily moving elsewhere only to go back to Ed in 2015?

    Changes over the past week...

    Con10 voters now voting
    Con 66% (-11)
    Lab 6% (+2)
    LD 2% (+1)
    Ukip 25% (+9)
    Green 1% (--)

    LD10 voters now voting
    Con 10% (+2)
    Lab 27% (-7)
    LD 41% (--)
    Ukip 12% (+4)
    Green 8% (+3)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,124
    Mr. P, it'd be interesting to know if women are more likely to vote In during an EU referendum and whether they backed FPTP. I would guess that women are slightly but significantly (in statistical terms) more risk averse than men.

    On that note, a woman whose name/job I forget (sorry, whoever you are) recently said as much about women drivers trying to get into F1. Namely, they'll almost always have more of a sense of self-preservation than a man in the same position and brake a tiny bit earlier. However, in an F1 car that tiny bit is a huge difference.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,945
    Don't see Portillo's intervention having quite the same impact as Nigel Lawson's but it is a drip, drip effect. I don't have access behind the paywall but if he is focussing on the different vision of what the majority of the EU still seem to want and what we want, that is a point made here many times.

    I suspect that Cameron is going to have to reposition himself on this somewhat. His position at the moment is that he wants to renegotiate a better, looser arrangement for the UK and then sell that to the UK public in a referendum. I suspect that over the coming months it will sound more and more like, "well I will give it my best shot and then we will have to see" evolving into "if I don't get what I want then I will not be able to recommend it to the British people".

    In short, under pressure not only from UKIP but also significant chunks of their own party I think by the next election the tories' commitment to the EU will be a lot more nuanced than it is right now. And I think I for one will be quite happy for that. The europhiles are losing the substance of the argument and the eurozone crisis is not a helpful backdrop to them. What will Ed do?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    all we need now is Nick Clegg saved my hamster and we've got the set.

    An amusingly prophetic choice of words considering the only venue where I can find Clegg declared a hero. Not just once but twice! (he didn't eat a hamster for the accolade though ;) )
    Nick Clegg is The Sun’s Hero of the Week… again

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/nick-clegg-is-the-suns-hero-of-the-week-again-30743.html
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation calculated UKIP @ 16% as the worst level for Con vs Lab.

    "At this maximum point UKIP increases Labour’s lead over the Conservatives by about 5 percentage points, a potentially election-wrecking margin. "

    http://survation.com/2013/05/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @ScottP

    Have we seen any pictures of the sheep rescue? Plenty of pics of "Superhero Ed". Funny that...


    Haven't seen those, could you link to them.

    Are they as imminent as the scottish tory surge Scott_P keeps expecting?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,124
    Mr. L, that would be a massive change. If the Conservatives won the next election (unlikely as it is) that would mean any such referendum would not see a backbench/frontbench split and Out would have the entirety (excluding Ken Clarke) of a major political party on its side.

    The EU is an enormous missed opportunity.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    DavidL said:

    Don't see Portillo's intervention having quite the same impact as Nigel Lawson's but it is a drip, drip effect.

    Quite, one is a former senior statesman, the other a failed princeling - remembered for "were you up for Portillo?" It will be interesting to see how Labour position themselves in 2015 - their Europhile leadership or their more Eurosceptic base....
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    probably the daftest advice to Cameron so far, be a geezer like Farage.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/08/nigel-farage-toff-david-cameron
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    On that note, a woman whose name/job I forget (sorry, whoever you are) recently said as much about women drivers trying to get into F1. Namely, they'll almost always have more of a sense of self-preservation than a man in the same position and brake a tiny bit earlier. However, in an F1 car that tiny bit is a huge difference.

    Interesting article in the Times about women in F1
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,124
    F1: sounds like McLaren have a substantial problem. They apparently are seeing poor correlation between real world performance and the performance predicted in the factory:
    http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/5/14524.html

    This sounds comparable to Ferrari's wind-tunnel miscalibration, which sounds minor but probably cost the team the title in 2012 and stunted their development in recent years (not this year, though).

    If McLaren can't sort this it could also ruin their 2014 hopes. A raft of major regulation changes are difficult enough without the reality not matching up to predicted performance.
This discussion has been closed.