Freedom Day with the PM and Chancellor self-isolating doesn’t send out the planned message – politic
Comments
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This is the exact point I've been making over and over and over again.MaxPB said:
It's also not true, I went to a Sam Smith's last weekend in Soho and paid by card and used my phone.Gallowgate said:
Sounds wankanother_richard said:
Try a Sam Smith's pub - have to pay cash and mobile phones are banned.Andy_JS said:
I go to the pub to get away from modern technology, not to use it.Foxy said:
Really?Andy_JS said:Looking forward to being able to order drinks at the bar again tomorrow.
I saw a piece that showed the ordering apps to be quite popular with customers, and the landlords rather like them too. It seems that customers are much less price sensitive on apps.0 -
Not sure even 250 will be enough to win the T20 today....
Totally different game.0 -
I can't believe when you say something like that. Of a course a virus can and sometimes should alter peoples' ways of doing things. Could you not believe it when people allowed it to alter their way of doing things when a 1000 people were dying a day? I'd say that was very rational change.Andy_JS said:
I can't believe people are allowing a virus to alter their way of doing things.Leon said:
I've gone even further than that. On fine afternoons and evenings (like today) I often skip the pub entirely and take a chilled white wine to the park, and have a little picnic with friends.stodge said:
Indeed, I've thoroughly enjoyed not having to endure the scrum down at the bar. At all the pubs I've visited, ordering off the app is fine, service is efficient but then I don't frequent large city centre pubs on a Friday and Saturday evening which is where I suspect the profits are made.Foxy said:
Really?Andy_JS said:Looking forward to being able to order drinks at the bar again tomorrow.
I saw a piece that showed the ordering apps to be quite popular with customers, and the landlords rather like them too. It seems that customers are much less price sensitive on apps.
The whole "crowds" thing is so old hat - most people want comfortable, congenial and civilised (well, I do and I'm "most people" having discovered I'm in a majority last evening)..
The wine is vastly superior, you nibble summer fruits and cheese, the sun beats down, it is bliss. Who needs a pub?
The question is whether people should still be allowing it, and in the case of social situations, whether it has led to a change which is better for them - what's it to you if people don't want to go to the pub?2 -
very quiet today, I miss Philip, Hy and Leon attempting to defend the indefensible.1
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Lay all the favourites, as long as there's no Covid get out. There's going to be a significant number not competing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Only a total moron would bet on any event for these Olympics...Scott_xP said:Should TeamGB be part of a pilot?
BREAKING Eight members of Team GB have been identified as close contacts of someone (non British) who tested positive for COVID on a flight into Japan - six athletes and two staff members on the athletics team. #Tokyo2020
https://twitter.com/TomSkyNews/status/14167549906437693481 -
Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...
BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-578770330 -
Well, given England are batting it’s unlikely we’ll find out.FrancisUrquhart said:Not sure even 250 will be enough to win the T20 today....
Totally different game.0 -
The JS is firmly on my bucket list (honestly) for when I go down next - just been reading a fascinating paper on the water geology of the location, plus a rather good biog of the chap.Foxy said:
There are a number in London:kinabalu said:
Not down here, Richard. Must be another one of those Northern USPs. Add it to your (very long) list perhaps.another_richard said:
Try a Sam Smith's pub - have to pay cash and mobile phones are banned.Andy_JS said:
I go to the pub to get away from modern technology, not to use it.Foxy said:
Really?Andy_JS said:Looking forward to being able to order drinks at the bar again tomorrow.
I saw a piece that showed the ordering apps to be quite popular with customers, and the landlords rather like them too. It seems that customers are much less price sensitive on apps.
https://www.standard.co.uk/reveller/bars/the-15-best-sam-smith-s-pubs-in-london-ranked-a3954501.html
Good beer and good value traditional pubs. I have been to The John Snow in Soho, named for the pioneering Doctor who discovered the cause of a cholera outbreak. He wouldn't approve though, as he was a teetotaller!0 -
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.1 -
Sure that's the supply, but the whole programme is more than that. Right now we would still be better off putting a big effort into vacinating adults in places like Newham, by knocking on their doors if necessary, rather than vaccinating children who are less likely to get it, very unlikely to get seriously ill, and less likely to pass it on. Finn doesn't seem to think vaccinating children is all that important in the grand scheme of things, and that vaccinating adults is still the priority if you want to limit harm and the spread of the virus. Basically the balance of required vaccinations per life saved still favours getting the last adults over mass vaccination of children in order to protect others, vaccinating vulnerable children is a different issue.MaxPB said:We don't have supply issues, we're approaching a situation where the UK will have near unlimited supply of COVID vaccines for the size of the country.
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I have never talked to my mixed race South African friend about flying saucers. I have talked to her about the terror of knocks on the door in the night when she was growing up in a black township under Apartheid. As well as the challenges of being a mixed race woman in the new South Africa. The doors that are conveniently opened and the others which get unceremoniously shut.kinabalu said:Interesting chat between Leon and Moonshine on PT that got me thinking - would one expect a correlation between a fear that superwokery is turning the UK into South Africa and a belief in flying saucers?
I suspect she has rather more of interest to say on the subject than you do. On every subject now I come to think of it.0 -
We can and should be doing both (and also exporting vaccines).glw said:
Sure that's the supply, but the whole programme is more than that. Right now we would still be better off putting a big effort into vacinating adults in places like Newham, by knocking on their doors if necessary, rather than vaccinating children who are less likely to get it, very unlikely to get seriously ill, and less likely to pass it on. Finn doesn't seem to think vaccinating children is all that important in the grand scheme of things, and that vaccinating adults is still the priority if you want to limit harm and the spread of the virus. Basically the balance of required vaccinations per life saved still favours getting the last adults over mass vaccination of children in order to protect others, vaccinating vulnerable children is a different issue.MaxPB said:We don't have supply issues, we're approaching a situation where the UK will have near unlimited supply of COVID vaccines for the size of the country.
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Don't spoil his fun - he's desperate for Europe to catch up so he can bang on about the wonders of the EU again.williamglenn said:
First dose numbers are starting to collapse in Germany and they're still a long way behind.IanB2 said:
Current numbers are pitifully low; Europe is catching us up fast.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
A pop-up vaccination centre is in our village today, and I was glad to see long queues outside it when I passed, two hours apart.
We also had a lady just knock on our door and ask if we'd been vaccinated; they're going around trying to get people out. First time I'd heard of this happening, and I think it's brilliant.
edit: and first.0 -
Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.FrancisUrquhart said:Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...
BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-578770331 -
As stated, I'm watching the golf rather than reacting to trolling.Leon said:
You're wrong. You're highly educated and reasonably intelligent, but you have a narrow, middlebrow world-view which is made even narrower by rigid political opinions formed in your youthkinabalu said:
I can't totally rule that out but I very nearly can.Leon said:
What you are witnessing is Evidence of Higher Intelligencekinabalu said:Interesting chat between Leon and Moonshine on PT that got me thinking - would one expect a correlation between a fear that superwokery is turning the UK into South Africa and a belief in flying saucers?
Some arguments go way over your head - and you don't even realise, because you are busy reacting emotionally/politically
There. You can have that psychoanalysis for free. I normally charge
Will Louis Oosthuizen hold onto his lead? I hope so. I quite like him. He has a rather sweet and unusual pre shot routine including for the putting. Kind of strokes his shaft a couple of times with both hands. Seems to work for him. I might try it myself.2 -
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.0 -
Thankfully one you seem never able to understand so the great sulk continues adinfinitum...Scott_xP said:
Maybe true, but this episode shows (again) that BoZo has nothing but contempt for the people who voted for him.another_richard said:Boris will always have the electoral benefit of being able to upset the right people.
Why do they keep voting for him is a reasonable question.0 -
I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.1
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We should do both. It's not an either/or.glw said:
Sure that's the supply, but the whole programme is more than that. Right now we would still be better off putting a big effort into vacinating adults in places like Newham, by knocking on their doors if necessary, rather than vaccinating children who are less likely to get it, very unlikely to get seriously ill, and less likely to pass it on. Finn doesn't seem to think vaccinating children is all that important in the grand scheme of things, and that vaccinating adults is still the priority if you want to limit harm and the spread of the virus. Basically the balance of required vaccinations per life saved still favours getting the last adults over mass vaccination of children in order to protect others, vaccinating vulnerable children is a different issue.MaxPB said:We don't have supply issues, we're approaching a situation where the UK will have near unlimited supply of COVID vaccines for the size of the country.
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....and of course the LDs are just dead ringers for the SNP in 2013.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.0 -
There are a lot of votes available in coming second to the Tories in many seats across the South.pigeon said:
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.1 -
Yeah Max turned into Lewis. Despite having more than a car's width on the outside.maaarsh said:I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.
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Instinctively I'd agree with you, but the people who really know what they are talking about don't agree. The JCVI gave good advice about vaccinating by age cohorts and risk, and good advice about stretching the interval between vaccines, so if they say vaccinating children isn't worth it at the moment they are probably right.LostPassword said:We can and should be doing both (and also exporting vaccines).
My guess is that the concern is that if we shift the focus to vaccinating children we will end up limiting the adult uptake, even if the programme remains open to unvaccinated adults, and that would be less useful to limiting the effect and spread of the virus.1 -
The problem I can see is that, at some point going down the age range, the "protect yourself" vs. "protect others" balance shifts. Vaccinating the old ought to be easy; "Take this jab SO YOU DON'T DIE." For younger people, that argument doesn't work, you need to do a persuasion job, which the UK largely hasn't bothered with. There's nothing comparable with this;LostPassword said:
We can and should be doing both (and also exporting vaccines).glw said:
Sure that's the supply, but the whole programme is more than that. Right now we would still be better off putting a big effort into vacinating adults in places like Newham, by knocking on their doors if necessary, rather than vaccinating children who are less likely to get it, very unlikely to get seriously ill, and less likely to pass it on. Finn doesn't seem to think vaccinating children is all that important in the grand scheme of things, and that vaccinating adults is still the priority if you want to limit harm and the spread of the virus. Basically the balance of required vaccinations per life saved still favours getting the last adults over mass vaccination of children in order to protect others, vaccinating vulnerable children is a different issue.MaxPB said:We don't have supply issues, we're approaching a situation where the UK will have near unlimited supply of COVID vaccines for the size of the country.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/09/french-posters-of-kissing-couples-promote-desirable-side-of-covid-jab
Given the tendency of some on the right to say "if you haven't got immunity yet, it's your fault", I wonder how many government types comprehend the concept of doing something (wear a mask, get a vaccination) for the sake of others.1 -
No, not on every subject. Horses for courses.moonshine said:
I have never talked to my mixed race South African friend about flying saucers. I have talked to her about the terror of knocks on the door in the night when she was growing up in a black township under Apartheid. As well as the challenges of being a mixed race woman in the new South Africa. The doors that are conveniently opened and the others which get unceremoniously shut.kinabalu said:Interesting chat between Leon and Moonshine on PT that got me thinking - would one expect a correlation between a fear that superwokery is turning the UK into South Africa and a belief in flying saucers?
I suspect she has rather more of interest to say on the subject than you do. On every subject now I come to think of it.0 -
The previous corner Lewis was on the outside and well ahead but left Max room on the inside. Roles reversed and Max caused a crash. But pretty safe bet the stewards will be hammering Lewis.MaxPB said:
Yeah Max turned into Lewis. Despite having more than a car's width on the outside.maaarsh said:I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.
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The FDA has approved Pfizer for 12-17 year olds and so has the MHRA. They are also world renown experts in pharmaceutical product risk. We're in an odd situation where the MHRA are happy for Pfizer to be given to kids, parents who are happy for their kids to get it but because the state has a monopoly on supply and they've decided they know better than their own regulator it's effectively impossible to do it.glw said:
Instinctively I'd agree with you, but the people who really know what they are talking about don't agree. The JCVI gave good advice about vaccinating by age cohorts and risk, and good advice about stretching the interval between vaccines, so if they say vaccinating children isn't worth it at the moment they are probably right.LostPassword said:We can and should be doing both (and also exporting vaccines).
My guess is that the concern is that if we shift the focus to vaccinating children we will end up limiting the adult uptake, even if the programme remains open to unvaccinated adults, and that would be less useful to limiting the effect and spread of the virus.
As I mentioned earlier this week, if the JCVI say no for 18-39 year olds getting a booster shot my wife and I are planning to go to Switzerland to get them done. Vaccines, at this point, should be available to anyone who wants one and eligibility for booster shots should be based on two doses + 6 months including all adults.0 -
So we should ignore the recommendation of SAGE because you disagree with them?Cocky_cockney said:
Except that they don't have an entire segment of the population acting as perfect viral vectors.Leon said:
They all hit a ceiling, same happened in IsraelIanB2 said:
Current numbers are pitifully low; Europe is catching us up fast.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
A pop-up vaccination centre is in our village today, and I was glad to see long queues outside it when I passed, two hours apart.
We also had a lady just knock on our door and ask if we'd been vaccinated; they're going around trying to get people out. First time I'd heard of this happening, and I think it's brilliant.
edit: and first.
Not vaccinating under-18's is the stupidest decision.0 -
‘We did look briefly’ at the pilot scheme to avoid full self isolation … long enough to send out a press release saying that was the plan
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1416765667970371584
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1416764592043315204
A video aimed at the gullible who still vote for BoZo despite his explicit contempt.0 -
The FDA does as well, so does the MHRA.Charles said:
So we should ignore the recommendation of SAGE because you disagree with them?Cocky_cockney said:
Except that they don't have an entire segment of the population acting as perfect viral vectors.Leon said:
They all hit a ceiling, same happened in IsraelIanB2 said:
Current numbers are pitifully low; Europe is catching us up fast.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
A pop-up vaccination centre is in our village today, and I was glad to see long queues outside it when I passed, two hours apart.
We also had a lady just knock on our door and ask if we'd been vaccinated; they're going around trying to get people out. First time I'd heard of this happening, and I think it's brilliant.
edit: and first.
Not vaccinating under-18's is the stupidest decision.0 -
The decision on whether to vaccinate children should not be made in a vacuum. Because if you are not vaccinating them, that means you are accepting one of two things. The continued mass disruption to a generation’s education and social development. Or all of them catching it.Charles said:
So we should ignore the recommendation of SAGE because you disagree with them?Cocky_cockney said:
Except that they don't have an entire segment of the population acting as perfect viral vectors.Leon said:
They all hit a ceiling, same happened in IsraelIanB2 said:
Current numbers are pitifully low; Europe is catching us up fast.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
A pop-up vaccination centre is in our village today, and I was glad to see long queues outside it when I passed, two hours apart.
We also had a lady just knock on our door and ask if we'd been vaccinated; they're going around trying to get people out. First time I'd heard of this happening, and I think it's brilliant.
edit: and first.
Not vaccinating under-18's is the stupidest decision.
This government quite typically doesn’t have the foresight to think even one step ahead of what their decision means.0 -
I think it's a good example where you need to slow it right down before coming to a view. I think it's on Max as he was cutting over Lewis's track. But! Had he not done that, I reckon Lewis was running him off the track.MaxPB said:
Yeah Max turned into Lewis. Despite having more than a car's width on the outside.maaarsh said:I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.
And I'm not having this "you don't stick a wheel up the inside of Copse" line that RedBull are peddling.0 -
I think it's likely to frustrate efforts to vaccinate more adults, particularly younger ones. There have been several people emphasising the risk of the vaccine side-effects to teenagers and downplaying the Covid risks, and I think they have the balance of risks wrong.glw said:
Instinctively I'd agree with you, but the people who really know what they are talking about don't agree. The JCVI gave good advice about vaccinating by age cohorts and risk, and good advice about stretching the interval between vaccines, so if they say vaccinating children isn't worth it at the moment they are probably right.LostPassword said:We can and should be doing both (and also exporting vaccines).
My guess is that the concern is that if we shift the focus to vaccinating children we will end up limiting the adult uptake, even if the programme remains open to unvaccinated adults, and that would be less useful to limiting the effect and spread of the virus.
This is only going to make younger adults wonder whether they too are more at risk from the vaccine than from Covid. Combine that with the trashing the vaccines are receiving from some of the media now, because double-vaccinated people have been catching Covid, and I think that deciding not to mass vaccinate teenagers looks like a lack of confidence in their efficacy and safety.0 -
Surprised they allow that, most golf courses I’ve played on you’re supposed to keep your shaft zipped away in your pants while actually playing.kinabalu said:
As stated, I'm watching the golf rather than reacting to trolling.Leon said:
You're wrong. You're highly educated and reasonably intelligent, but you have a narrow, middlebrow world-view which is made even narrower by rigid political opinions formed in your youthkinabalu said:
I can't totally rule that out but I very nearly can.Leon said:
What you are witnessing is Evidence of Higher Intelligencekinabalu said:Interesting chat between Leon and Moonshine on PT that got me thinking - would one expect a correlation between a fear that superwokery is turning the UK into South Africa and a belief in flying saucers?
Some arguments go way over your head - and you don't even realise, because you are busy reacting emotionally/politically
There. You can have that psychoanalysis for free. I normally charge
Will Louis Oosthuizen hold onto his lead? I hope so. I quite like him. He has a rather sweet and unusual pre shot routine including for the putting. Kind of strokes his shaft a couple of times with both hands. Seems to work for him. I might try it myself.0 -
Regarding the incident. You can't overtake at sodding Copse. Its full speed flat out, so you have to turn in if you want to complete the turn...0
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That's exactly what we thought!NickPalmer said:
At last a popular canvasser!JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
A pop-up vaccination centre is in our village today, and I was glad to see long queues outside it when I passed, two hours apart.
We also had a lady just knock on our door and ask if we'd been vaccinated; they're going around trying to get people out. First time I'd heard of this happening, and I think it's brilliant.
edit: and first.0 -
Indeed.LostPassword said:
There are a lot of votes available in coming second to the Tories in many seats across the South.pigeon said:
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.
Based on current boundaries, a uniform 5% Con to LD swing would cost the Tories 13 seats (two in the North, eleven in the South.) A 2% Lab to Con swing would net the Tories 18 seats (two in the South, two in Wales, six in the Midlands and eight in the North.) A 10% Con to LD swing would net the Lib Dems 26 seats; a 5% Lab to Con swing would result in 44 Tory gains and reduce the PLP to a rump.
Relative to UNS, the Conservatives still have an awful lot more to gain from a modest overperformance in their target seats versus Labour than they have to lose from a modest underperformance against the Lib Dems in their defences. That's not to say that this won't eventually change, but a substantial demolition of Tory redoubts in Southern England might be a project for several electoral cycles, as has evidently been the case with Labour's woes elsewhere.0 -
Hmmm.RochdalePioneers said:Regarding the incident. You can't overtake at sodding Copse. Its full speed flat out, so you have to turn in if you want to complete the turn...
Drove hard down the inside taking a line designed to force another car off the track.
Hits car before he gets there.
Writes off rival’s car, stops race and gets to repair his own.
If he gets off without a penalty, Hamilton is a genius, but he deserves a drive through.1 -
Yeah it's such a load of crap from red bull. If the roles were reversed Max is 100% sticking it up the inside there.tlg86 said:
I think it's a good example where you need to slow it right down before coming to a view. I think it's on Max as he was cutting over Lewis's track. But! Had he not done that, I reckon Lewis was running him off the track.MaxPB said:
Yeah Max turned into Lewis. Despite having more than a car's width on the outside.maaarsh said:I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.
And I'm not having this "you don't stick a wheel up the inside of Copse" line that RedBull are peddling.
Lewis has left Max more than enough room on the outside and the reason Max is turning in is because he knows the overtake is done if he doesn't.1 -
Not true - there have been first lap overtakes at Copse before.RochdalePioneers said:Regarding the incident. You can't overtake at sodding Copse. Its full speed flat out, so you have to turn in if you want to complete the turn...
Racing incident, IMO, but Hamilton probably a bit more of the two to blame.0 -
Almost certainly the reason so many do vote for him.felix said:
But while great in a chat show guest or party chairman, I want competence not LOLs from my PM.0 -
These team to FIA radio transmissions just confirm that Christian Horner is as much of a *** when talking to the race director, as he is when talking to the media.tlg86 said:
I think it's a good example where you need to slow it right down before coming to a view. I think it's on Max as he was cutting over Lewis's track. But! Had he not done that, I reckon Lewis was running him off the track.MaxPB said:
Yeah Max turned into Lewis. Despite having more than a car's width on the outside.maaarsh said:I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.
And I'm not having this "you don't stick a wheel up the inside of Copse" line that RedBull are peddling.
It was a 50/50, but MV has had that coming to him for a while now.
That said, 5 seconds is the standard penalty, and Lewis will take that all day long.0 -
It’s clear 10 Downing Street is incapable of distinguishing between truth and lies.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/14167690281865953291 -
If you can't (i.e. shouldn't) overtake at Copse, why did Verstappen go defensive.RochdalePioneers said:Regarding the incident. You can't overtake at sodding Copse. Its full speed flat out, so you have to turn in if you want to complete the turn...
0 -
Good news for Hamilton whichever way the stewards rule though. With his car repaired, he’ll be past Leclerc in seconds and win the race at a stroll. Even if he gets a penalty.Sandpit said:
These team to FIA radio transmissions just confirm that Christian Horner is as much of a *** when talking to the race director, as he is when talking to the media.tlg86 said:
I think it's a good example where you need to slow it right down before coming to a view. I think it's on Max as he was cutting over Lewis's track. But! Had he not done that, I reckon Lewis was running him off the track.MaxPB said:
Yeah Max turned into Lewis. Despite having more than a car's width on the outside.maaarsh said:I see Max went for his usual 'you lift or we crash' tactic 3 corners in a row and got what was coming to him on the 3rd occasion. Glad he's not hurt but he deserves this outcome until he engages in close racing with respect for the other car.
And I'm not having this "you don't stick a wheel up the inside of Copse" line that RedBull are peddling.
It was a 50/50, but MV has had that coming to him for a while now.0 -
I'd say 50/50. Lewis had right of way earlier and left Max enough room to retake the position. Max is a massive c*** on track and this is just another one of those where he's decided that other drivers on the track are an irrelevance.Nigelb said:
Not true - there have been first lap overtakes at Copse before.RochdalePioneers said:Regarding the incident. You can't overtake at sodding Copse. Its full speed flat out, so you have to turn in if you want to complete the turn...
Racing incident, IMO, but Hamilton probably a bit more of the two to blame.0 -
Boris Johnson: “We did look briefly at the idea [of the pilot test scheme] but I think it’s far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules.”
Looked at briefly? Until the u-Turn we were told that was the actual plan. Indeed Robert Jenrick was sent out to defend it. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/14167696170584678450 -
I see polling subsamples show that the Chinese aliens sowed Covid into Max and Lewis's cockpits immediately before Copse Corner in order to allow Marzipan to win. That's perfectly fine to me.Daveyboy1961 said:very quiet today, I miss Philip, Hy and Leon attempting to defend the indefensible.
1 -
It's utter lying bollx.Scott_xP said:Boris Johnson: “We did look briefly at the idea [of the pilot test scheme] but I think it’s far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules.”
Looked at briefly? Until the u-Turn we were told that was the actual plan. Indeed Robert Jenrick was sent out to defend it. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1416769617058467845
But Johnson's legion of fans wont care. They are happy the country is led by a lying chaotic charlatan.0 -
No, they have worked out that 40%+ of the country are quite happy being persistently lied to.Scott_xP said:It’s clear 10 Downing Street is incapable of distinguishing between truth and lies.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/14167690281865953290 -
SAGE hasn’t ruled on safety & efficacy. They’ve determined priority.MaxPB said:
The FDA does as well, so does the MHRA.Charles said:
So we should ignore the recommendation of SAGE because you disagree with them?Cocky_cockney said:
Except that they don't have an entire segment of the population acting as perfect viral vectors.Leon said:
They all hit a ceiling, same happened in IsraelIanB2 said:
Current numbers are pitifully low; Europe is catching us up fast.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
A pop-up vaccination centre is in our village today, and I was glad to see long queues outside it when I passed, two hours apart.
We also had a lady just knock on our door and ask if we'd been vaccinated; they're going around trying to get people out. First time I'd heard of this happening, and I think it's brilliant.
edit: and first.
Not vaccinating under-18's is the stupidest decision.0 -
See aboverottenborough said:It's utter lying bollx.
But Johnson's legion of fans wont care. They are happy the country is led by a lying chaotic charlatan.
BoZo thinks his voters are idiots. They think it's funny.0 -
Here we go again!0
-
Called this one earlier. There absolutely was no plan to use the pilot scheme, says the same No 10 spokesperson who earlier said they were using the pilot scheme.Scott_xP said:Boris Johnson: “We did look briefly at the idea [of the pilot test scheme] but I think it’s far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules.”
Looked at briefly? Until the u-Turn we were told that was the actual plan. Indeed Robert Jenrick was sent out to defend it. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1416769617058467845
The obvious, blatant, laughable lies are the sign that they have lost the plot.1 -
The ones that have died don't have much of choice tbf.Andy_JS said:
I can't believe people are allowing a virus to alter their way of doing things.Leon said:
I've gone even further than that. On fine afternoons and evenings (like today) I often skip the pub entirely and take a chilled white wine to the park, and have a little picnic with friends.stodge said:
Indeed, I've thoroughly enjoyed not having to endure the scrum down at the bar. At all the pubs I've visited, ordering off the app is fine, service is efficient but then I don't frequent large city centre pubs on a Friday and Saturday evening which is where I suspect the profits are made.Foxy said:
Really?Andy_JS said:Looking forward to being able to order drinks at the bar again tomorrow.
I saw a piece that showed the ordering apps to be quite popular with customers, and the landlords rather like them too. It seems that customers are much less price sensitive on apps.
The whole "crowds" thing is so old hat - most people want comfortable, congenial and civilised (well, I do and I'm "most people" having discovered I'm in a majority last evening)..
The wine is vastly superior, you nibble summer fruits and cheese, the sun beats down, it is bliss. Who needs a pub?0 -
They were both right on the limit - note Max had left the track defending a previous corner as he was carrying too much speed.MaxPB said:
I'd say 50/50. Lewis had right of way earlier and left Max enough room to retake the position. Max is a massive c*** on track and this is just another one of those where he's decided that other drivers on the track are an irrelevance.Nigelb said:
Not true - there have been first lap overtakes at Copse before.RochdalePioneers said:Regarding the incident. You can't overtake at sodding Copse. Its full speed flat out, so you have to turn in if you want to complete the turn...
Racing incident, IMO, but Hamilton probably a bit more of the two to blame.0 -
And the fanbois response, "Please Sir, may I have another..."RochdalePioneers said:The obvious, blatant, laughable lies are the sign that they have lost the plot.
1 -
Good afternoon
Lovely day doing a bit of gardening and just popped in and lots going on in sport this afternoon
I am sure many on here would benefit to chill out for a day or so0 -
Labour leader @Keir_Starmer writes for @MirrorPolitics
Key line: "It is so important that the public have confidence in self isolation and in measures like the NHS app. Now would not be the time to take the batteries out of the smoke alarm."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bank-robber-boris-johnsons-latest-24561026?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Starmer adds: "This is why the chaotic, incompetent way Boris Johnson conducts himself is so dangerous. It makes for bad government & has deadly consequences for the British public."
How many deleted the app today when it emerged our PM had a "VIP" testing plan to get round it?0 -
Hamilton 10 second penalty0
-
Not much chance of that in this heat, BigG. Hope it’s a bit cooler on the coast but here it’s roasting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good afternoon
Lovely day doing a bit of gardening and just popped in and lots going on in sport this afternoon
I am sure many on here would benefit to chill out for a day or so0 -
10sec time penalty.
Horner will be unhappy…1 -
And people still wonder why Johnson pulled Lee Cain's bonkers idea of having a West Wing style press event every day on live TV with Allegra?RochdalePioneers said:
Called this one earlier. There absolutely was no plan to use the pilot scheme, says the same No 10 spokesperson who earlier said they were using the pilot scheme.Scott_xP said:Boris Johnson: “We did look briefly at the idea [of the pilot test scheme] but I think it’s far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules.”
Looked at briefly? Until the u-Turn we were told that was the actual plan. Indeed Robert Jenrick was sent out to defend it. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1416769617058467845
The obvious, blatant, laughable lies are the sign that they have lost the plot.
0 -
The shaft of his CLUB is what I'm referring to there. He caresses it twice - double handed - before pulling the trigger.ydoethur said:
Surprised they allow that, most golf courses I’ve played on you’re supposed to keep your shaft zipped away in your pants while actually playing.kinabalu said:
As stated, I'm watching the golf rather than reacting to trolling.Leon said:
You're wrong. You're highly educated and reasonably intelligent, but you have a narrow, middlebrow world-view which is made even narrower by rigid political opinions formed in your youthkinabalu said:
I can't totally rule that out but I very nearly can.Leon said:
What you are witnessing is Evidence of Higher Intelligencekinabalu said:Interesting chat between Leon and Moonshine on PT that got me thinking - would one expect a correlation between a fear that superwokery is turning the UK into South Africa and a belief in flying saucers?
Some arguments go way over your head - and you don't even realise, because you are busy reacting emotionally/politically
There. You can have that psychoanalysis for free. I normally charge
Will Louis Oosthuizen hold onto his lead? I hope so. I quite like him. He has a rather sweet and unusual pre shot routine including for the putting. Kind of strokes his shaft a couple of times with both hands. Seems to work for him. I might try it myself.
Put it on and take a look. You won't be disappointed.0 -
Hamilton has crashed himself back into the title race. That's a bit scandalous.https://twitter.com/DavidRoe92/status/14167723762562048030
-
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
0 -
kinabalu said:
The shaft of his CLUB is what I'm referring to there. He caresses it twice - double handed - before pulling the trigger.ydoethur said:
Surprised they allow that, most golf courses I’ve played on you’re supposed to keep your shaft zipped away in your pants while actually playing.kinabalu said:
As stated, I'm watching the golf rather than reacting to trolling.Leon said:
You're wrong. You're highly educated and reasonably intelligent, but you have a narrow, middlebrow world-view which is made even narrower by rigid political opinions formed in your youthkinabalu said:
I can't totally rule that out but I very nearly can.Leon said:
What you are witnessing is Evidence of Higher Intelligencekinabalu said:Interesting chat between Leon and Moonshine on PT that got me thinking - would one expect a correlation between a fear that superwokery is turning the UK into South Africa and a belief in flying saucers?
Some arguments go way over your head - and you don't even realise, because you are busy reacting emotionally/politically
There. You can have that psychoanalysis for free. I normally charge
Will Louis Oosthuizen hold onto his lead? I hope so. I quite like him. He has a rather sweet and unusual pre shot routine including for the putting. Kind of strokes his shaft a couple of times with both hands. Seems to work for him. I might try it myself.
Put it on and take a look. You won't be disappointed.
0 -
The centre left and centre right are now asymmetric. To vote for a centre right government you have to vote Tory; there being no alternative. Three and a half (SNP) parties look for the centre left vote. Obviously this creates a great opportunity for coalition but has two dangers. Lots of people in the south who sometimes vote LD don't want a Labour led government. And the opportunities for carefully managing the campaign so as to split the centre left parties to Tory advantage is obvious.pigeon said:
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.
And also, the further north you go in England the less people want the SNP having a say in government because northern England values the union. The further south you go, the less they want the SNP having a say in government because they are the SNP.
These will be big issues at election time even though they don't resonate much now.
3 -
Forecast would appear to indicate that today is the worst of it, although that much said most of the coming week looks pretty toasty as well. The aircon at work will be well appreciated tomorrow morning.ydoethur said:
Not much chance of that in this heat, BigG. Hope it’s a bit cooler on the coast but here it’s roasting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good afternoon
Lovely day doing a bit of gardening and just popped in and lots going on in sport this afternoon
I am sure many on here would benefit to chill out for a day or so0 -
I know of at least one person.Scott_xP said:Labour leader @Keir_Starmer writes for @MirrorPolitics
Key line: "It is so important that the public have confidence in self isolation and in measures like the NHS app. Now would not be the time to take the batteries out of the smoke alarm."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bank-robber-boris-johnsons-latest-24561026?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Starmer adds: "This is why the chaotic, incompetent way Boris Johnson conducts himself is so dangerous. It makes for bad government & has deadly consequences for the British public."
How many deleted the app today when it emerged our PM had a "VIP" testing plan to get round it?0 -
We do get the very welcome sea breezes but when I went into town this morning the beaches in Rhos on Sea and Colwyn Bay were absolutely packed and driving over the Little Orme into Llandudno, it could have been the French Riviera with the Great Orme looking fabulous and the promenade and pier utterly swamped with happy people, as well as the paddling pools.ydoethur said:
Not much chance of that in this heat, BigG. Hope it’s a bit cooler on the coast but here it’s roasting.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good afternoon
Lovely day doing a bit of gardening and just popped in and lots going on in sport this afternoon
I am sure many on here would benefit to chill out for a day or so1 -
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
0 -
Many thousands including all my family and their WhatsApp groups did this long before anything stupid Boris has doneScott_xP said:Labour leader @Keir_Starmer writes for @MirrorPolitics
Key line: "It is so important that the public have confidence in self isolation and in measures like the NHS app. Now would not be the time to take the batteries out of the smoke alarm."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bank-robber-boris-johnsons-latest-24561026?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Starmer adds: "This is why the chaotic, incompetent way Boris Johnson conducts himself is so dangerous. It makes for bad government & has deadly consequences for the British public."
How many deleted the app today when it emerged our PM had a "VIP" testing plan to get round it?0 -
Do you regret being a cheerleader for Cameron's lies ?Scott_xP said:It’s clear 10 Downing Street is incapable of distinguishing between truth and lies.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/14167690281865953291 -
I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.ydoethur said:
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
1 -
I remember talking with a schoolmate about 1983 in London, when I was a Medical Student and he was working in advertising. He was asking me about AIDS, which was going mainstream news at the time.kle4 said:
I can't believe when you say something like that. Of a course a virus can and sometimes should alter peoples' ways of doing things. Could you not believe it when people allowed it to alter their way of doing things when a 1000 people were dying a day? I'd say that was very rational change.Andy_JS said:
I can't believe people are allowing a virus to alter their way of doing things.Leon said:
I've gone even further than that. On fine afternoons and evenings (like today) I often skip the pub entirely and take a chilled white wine to the park, and have a little picnic with friends.stodge said:
Indeed, I've thoroughly enjoyed not having to endure the scrum down at the bar. At all the pubs I've visited, ordering off the app is fine, service is efficient but then I don't frequent large city centre pubs on a Friday and Saturday evening which is where I suspect the profits are made.Foxy said:
Really?Andy_JS said:Looking forward to being able to order drinks at the bar again tomorrow.
I saw a piece that showed the ordering apps to be quite popular with customers, and the landlords rather like them too. It seems that customers are much less price sensitive on apps.
The whole "crowds" thing is so old hat - most people want comfortable, congenial and civilised (well, I do and I'm "most people" having discovered I'm in a majority last evening)..
The wine is vastly superior, you nibble summer fruits and cheese, the sun beats down, it is bliss. Who needs a pub?
The question is whether people should still be allowing it, and in the case of social situations, whether it has led to a change which is better for them - what's it to you if people don't want to go to the pub?
"Is it a problem for straight guys?" He asked. I thought about it and replied "not yet, but it may well be in a few years time".
He thought for a moment, then concluded "so you are saying that I should screw around as much as I can, while it is still safe?"
Me "Well, that is one interpretation of the data!"
And indeed that is what we did...0 -
One imagines that the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Labour, a la 2015, if it looks as if there's any chance of the Conservatives losing their majority and being turfed out. OTOH, if the Tories are doing so well that there's no apparent realistic prospect of defeat then they won't need to.algarkirk said:
The centre left and centre right are now asymmetric. To vote for a centre right government you have to vote Tory; there being no alternative. Three and a half (SNP) parties look for the centre left vote. Obviously this creates a great opportunity for coalition but has two dangers. Lots of people in the south who sometimes vote LD don't want a Labour led government. And the opportunities for carefully managing the campaign so as to split the centre left parties to Tory advantage is obvious.pigeon said:
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.
And also, the further north you go in England the less people want the SNP having a say in government because northern England values the union. The further south you go, the less they want the SNP having a say in government because they are the SNP.
These will be big issues at election time even though they don't resonate much now.
Should that be the case 13 or 14 years after Gordon Brown left office then Labour will be in a very bad way.2 -
Polemic doesn't explain anything. Voters will cease to back Boris the moment a better option comes along. If Boris is as bad as his critics suggest proposing a better option ought not to be especially challenging. When Blair was the better option as LOTO the voters noticed this. The hint that the voters are fools is electoral suicide. Essentially this approach is "You know you support a lying charlatan, so you obviously are a bad person; so please vote Labour (or something)." This is pure Laura Pidcock, essentially saying: 'You are Tory scum, so vote for me instead'. it isn't true and doesn't work.rottenborough said:
It's utter lying bollx.Scott_xP said:Boris Johnson: “We did look briefly at the idea [of the pilot test scheme] but I think it’s far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules.”
Looked at briefly? Until the u-Turn we were told that was the actual plan. Indeed Robert Jenrick was sent out to defend it. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1416769617058467845
But Johnson's legion of fans wont care. They are happy the country is led by a lying chaotic charlatan.
2 -
Already planning that. The Tories have deleted EVEL in order to make up their horror stories.pigeon said:
One imagines that the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Labour, a la 2015, if it looks as if there's any chance of the Conservatives losing their majority and being turfed out. OTOH, if the Tories are doing so well that there's no apparent realistic prospect of defeat then they won't need to.algarkirk said:
The centre left and centre right are now asymmetric. To vote for a centre right government you have to vote Tory; there being no alternative. Three and a half (SNP) parties look for the centre left vote. Obviously this creates a great opportunity for coalition but has two dangers. Lots of people in the south who sometimes vote LD don't want a Labour led government. And the opportunities for carefully managing the campaign so as to split the centre left parties to Tory advantage is obvious.pigeon said:
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.
And also, the further north you go in England the less people want the SNP having a say in government because northern England values the union. The further south you go, the less they want the SNP having a say in government because they are the SNP.
These will be big issues at election time even though they don't resonate much now.
Should that be the case 13 or 14 years after Gordon Brown left office then Labour will be in a very bad way.0 -
Still basically 50k positives today.0
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England collapso in the cricket. No where near enough runs.0
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While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’tlg86 said:
I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.ydoethur said:
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).
Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.0 -
48,161, 740, 250
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The 40% know they're going to be lied to whoever is in government.noneoftheabove said:
No, they have worked out that 40%+ of the country are quite happy being persistently lied to.Scott_xP said:It’s clear 10 Downing Street is incapable of distinguishing between truth and lies.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1416769028186595329
The 60% pretend they wont be by 'their side'.1 -
If a bail was off before the runout was effected, Livingstone should not have been given out. Error by the umpire isn’t helping.FrancisUrquhart said:England collapso in the cricket. No where near enough runs.
0 -
Bit sweaty down in the Smoke. Glad I don't live here any more. Too much noise and people.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good afternoon
Lovely day doing a bit of gardening and just popped in and lots going on in sport this afternoon
I am sure many on here would benefit to chill out for a day or so
2 -
Given the relative performance of the two cars, he did likely have to get past on lap one if he wanted to win.ydoethur said:
While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’tlg86 said:
I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.ydoethur said:
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).
Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.0 -
Commentator: "So Christian (Horner): what do you think Hamilton's penalty should be?"
Horner: "Well, he should be immediately pulled out of the race and never allowed in anything more powerful than a Fergie tractor. He should never be allowed to have children, and when he dies the very earth that surrounds him should be salted."3 -
I'm sorry, you don't get to weave across the track to try to prevent someone getting along side, move back, then take the racing line and expect the other guy who is along side to back off.ydoethur said:
While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’tlg86 said:
I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.ydoethur said:
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).
Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.0 -
Yes. For these reasons I think the chance of a Tory overall majority next time are just under 50%, about the same as a Labour led coalition. A case could be made for suggesting the chance of a Tory majority is well above 50%, if you think it unavoidable that support for a rainbow coalition will wither due to the SNP, and that the traditional moderate LD vote will return in numbers to the Tories once it is obvious to the apolitical that an LD vote is a Labour/SNP vote.pigeon said:
One imagines that the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Labour, a la 2015, if it looks as if there's any chance of the Conservatives losing their majority and being turfed out. OTOH, if the Tories are doing so well that there's no apparent realistic prospect of defeat then they won't need to.algarkirk said:
The centre left and centre right are now asymmetric. To vote for a centre right government you have to vote Tory; there being no alternative. Three and a half (SNP) parties look for the centre left vote. Obviously this creates a great opportunity for coalition but has two dangers. Lots of people in the south who sometimes vote LD don't want a Labour led government. And the opportunities for carefully managing the campaign so as to split the centre left parties to Tory advantage is obvious.pigeon said:
Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.LostPassword said:
I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.StuartDickson said:
People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.stodge said:
Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).pigeon said:
I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.
Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.
The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.
The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.
At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.
It looks a tall order for the LDs.
And also, the further north you go in England the less people want the SNP having a say in government because northern England values the union. The further south you go, the less they want the SNP having a say in government because they are the SNP.
These will be big issues at election time even though they don't resonate much now.
Should that be the case 13 or 14 years after Gordon Brown left office then Labour will be in a very bad way.
What can be discounted for now is a rival for the Tory vote from the right. Many of Boris's critics fail to comprehend that his job (both for party and nation) includes averting a strong extreme right wing party gaining ground. I think (other views are available) that Boris is better at that than SKS is at marginalising the extreme left; without which he is toast.
1 -
Tyneside seems to be peaking - the sharper the rise the sooner the peak as often before.alex_ said:48,161, 740, 25
I wonder if there's been any calculation done on rates of increase, rates of fall and total number infected ? Looks like an old calculus problem.0 -
Since from what I have seen of the accident he didn’t do that, I’m not sure what your point is. Certainly Hamilton wasn’t ‘alongside’, he was lunging to get alongside.tlg86 said:
I'm sorry, you don't get to weave across the track to try to prevent someone getting along side, move back, then take the racing line and expect the other guy who is along side to back off.ydoethur said:
While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’tlg86 said:
I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.ydoethur said:
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).
Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.0 -
The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.Foxy said:
Quite a lot for a Sunday.alex_ said:48,161, 740, 25
I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.0 -
They were alongside:ydoethur said:
Since from what I have seen of the accident he didn’t do that, I’m not sure what your point is. Certainly Hamilton wasn’t ‘alongside’, he was lunging to get alongside.tlg86 said:
I'm sorry, you don't get to weave across the track to try to prevent someone getting along side, move back, then take the racing line and expect the other guy who is along side to back off.ydoethur said:
While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’tlg86 said:
I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.ydoethur said:
Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.tlg86 said:
Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.Big_G_NorthWales said:Hamilton 10 second penalty
Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).
Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.
https://twitter.com/khooper8695/status/14167649392351027210
