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Freedom Day with the PM and Chancellor self-isolating doesn’t send out the planned message – politic

13

Comments

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,473
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    pigeon said:


    I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.

    Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).

    Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.

    The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.

    The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.

    At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.

    It looks a tall order for the LDs.
    People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.
    I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.
    Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.
    There are a lot of votes available in coming second to the Tories in many seats across the South.
    Indeed.

    Based on current boundaries, a uniform 5% Con to LD swing would cost the Tories 13 seats (two in the North, eleven in the South.) A 2% Lab to Con swing would net the Tories 18 seats (two in the South, two in Wales, six in the Midlands and eight in the North.) A 10% Con to LD swing would net the Lib Dems 26 seats; a 5% Lab to Con swing would result in 44 Tory gains and reduce the PLP to a rump.

    Relative to UNS, the Conservatives still have an awful lot more to gain from a modest overperformance in their target seats versus Labour than they have to lose from a modest underperformance against the Lib Dems in their defences. That's not to say that this won't eventually change, but a substantial demolition of Tory redoubts in Southern England might be a project for several electoral cycles, as has evidently been the case with Labour's woes elsewhere.
    Not likely really. No sign of a further Lab to Con swing in Wales on May 6th at peak of the vaccine bounce - indeed quite a swingback to Labour. Without Galloway's intervention, the same would have been true of Batley& Spen. It becomes even less likely if the polls tighten to a neck and neck scenario - or indeed a Labour lead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    tlg86 said:

    Hamilton 10 second penalty

    Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.
    His fault on balance but not heinous. Therefore 10 secs. Seems ok to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    Taking someone out to win a title has a grand old tradition in F1 - a lot of champions were bastards on the track. So even if Hamilton had done that, which I don't think he has, he'd be acting on type.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    48,161, 740, 25

    Quite a lot for a Sunday.
    The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.

    I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.
    Yes, I noticed that our internal dashboard at work was considerably higher than the government.uk one for my Trust, when I last looked on Friday. About a week behind on government.uk, I reckon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited July 18
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hamilton 10 second penalty

    Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.
    Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.
    I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.
    While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’

    Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).

    Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.
    I'm sorry, you don't get to weave across the track to try to prevent someone getting along side, move back, then take the racing line and expect the other guy who is along side to back off.
    Since from what I have seen of the accident he didn’t do that, I’m not sure what your point is. Certainly Hamilton wasn’t ‘alongside’, he was lunging to get alongside.
    They were alongside:

    https://twitter.com/khooper8695/status/1416764939235102721
    Hamilton’s front wheel was next to Verstappen’s rear wheel.

    I don’t personally think that’s ‘alongside’ but as there’s no one definition feel free to disagree.

    Hamilton was foolish because he’s clearly getting desperate and has got a slap on the wrist for it. Ten seconds is about right. With Leclerc obviously struggling to make it to the end of the race, he should still win. He can count himself pretty lucky.

    Verstappen is doubtless fuming, but ultimately these things do happen in racing and he’s done it to plenty of others over the years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Why do cricket umpires today often do a silly nodding action with their head as they signal 4 runs? They never used to.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    Freedom Day is the start of the countdown to the next lockdown
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    48,161, 740, 25

    Quite a lot for a Sunday.
    The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.

    I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.
    We have around 1/8th the number of patients in hospital compared to the January peak. This is not ideal, but to argue lockdown would be needed if admissions went over 1000 a day, when for many the stay in hospital is a few days max, is absurd.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hamilton 10 second penalty

    Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.
    Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.
    I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.
    While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’

    Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).

    Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.
    I'm sorry, you don't get to weave across the track to try to prevent someone getting along side, move back, then take the racing line and expect the other guy who is along side to back off.
    Since from what I have seen of the accident he didn’t do that, I’m not sure what your point is. Certainly Hamilton wasn’t ‘alongside’, he was lunging to get alongside.
    They were alongside:

    https://twitter.com/khooper8695/status/1416764939235102721
    Hamilton’s front wheel was next to Verstappen’s rear wheel.

    I don’t personally think that’s ‘alongside’ but as there’s no one definition feel free to disagree.

    Hamilton was foolish because he’s clearly getting desperate and has got a slap on the wrist for it. Ten seconds is about right. With Leclerc obviously struggling to make it to the end of the race, he should still win. He can count himself pretty lucky.

    Verstappen is doubtless fuming, but ultimately these things do happen in racing and he’s done it to plenty of others over the years.
    Going into the corner, they were level. Hamilton backs off as he's on the inside and he needs to afford Verstappen room on the exit of the corner.

    That Verstappen was on the outside does give him the right to take the corner normally.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556
    justin124 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    pigeon said:


    I suppose that it's theoretically possible, although a major disruption of the Tory grip on the South would require an earthquake approaching the strength of that which wrecked Scottish Labour in 2015. There are only about twenty Tory-held seats in Southern England available for the LDs to attack where they'd need to overturn majorities of less than ten thousand votes. The party doesn't look nearly strong enough to cause that scale of upset at the moment.

    Let's take a case study - Woking. Last time, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the LDs 30% and Labour 16% with the Greens 3% and UKIP 1% (roughly).

    Conservative majority a notch under 10,000 despite a swing of 9.3% to the LDs.

    The LDs have never won Woking - in 1997, the Conservative vote fell below 40% (an Independent Conservative polled nearly 8%). Since then, the best LD performance was 38% in 2010 but the Conservative still polled 50% and the majority was just shy of 7,000.

    The LDs have never polled above 40% in the constituency - Labour polled 24% in 2017 and lost a third of that last time. Their lowest poll was 8% in 2010.

    At the County Council elections in May, the Conservatives won 41% of the vote, the LDs 30%, Labour 11.6% and Independents 10%. The Conservatives won 4 seats, the LDs 2 and the Independents 1.

    It looks a tall order for the LDs.
    People said the same about places like Glasgow North East in 2013. It fell to the SNP with a swing of 39.3% at the GE two years later.
    I think the circumstances of the Scottish Independence Referendum were rather unusual though. Simple government incompetence is unlikely to lead to the same swings. Even the post-Brexit realignment has so far taken two general elections to play out, and may have more left to see at the next GE.
    Very true, and always worth remembering that any potential LD recovery in the South will only make a serious dent in the Conservative majority if the number of gains significantly exceeds whatever the Tories might pick up themselves. The possibility of the Conservatives holding seats with reduced majorities down South, whilst knocking over another couple of dozen Labour marginals up North, oughtn't to be discounted.
    There are a lot of votes available in coming second to the Tories in many seats across the South.
    Indeed.

    Based on current boundaries, a uniform 5% Con to LD swing would cost the Tories 13 seats (two in the North, eleven in the South.) A 2% Lab to Con swing would net the Tories 18 seats (two in the South, two in Wales, six in the Midlands and eight in the North.) A 10% Con to LD swing would net the Lib Dems 26 seats; a 5% Lab to Con swing would result in 44 Tory gains and reduce the PLP to a rump.

    Relative to UNS, the Conservatives still have an awful lot more to gain from a modest overperformance in their target seats versus Labour than they have to lose from a modest underperformance against the Lib Dems in their defences. That's not to say that this won't eventually change, but a substantial demolition of Tory redoubts in Southern England might be a project for several electoral cycles, as has evidently been the case with Labour's woes elsewhere.
    Not likely really. No sign of a further Lab to Con swing in Wales on May 6th at peak of the vaccine bounce - indeed quite a swingback to Labour. Without Galloway's intervention, the same would have been true of Batley& Spen. It becomes even less likely if the polls tighten to a neck and neck scenario - or indeed a Labour lead.
    Oh absolutely. There's a long way to go.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    48,161, 740, 25

    Quite a lot for a Sunday.
    The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.

    I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.
    We have around 1/8th the number of patients in hospital compared to the January peak. This is not ideal, but to argue lockdown would be needed if admissions went over 1000 a day, when for many the stay in hospital is a few days max, is absurd.
    I agree with you, but do you trust the Prime Minister absolutely not to panic?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,518
    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hamilton 10 second penalty

    Well that makes no sense. Either it's not Hamilton's fault or he should be black flagged and banned for a number of races.
    Well, Red Bull seem to agree with you, but I think that’s just because they hate Hamilton’s guts.
    I was wondering recently how Verstappen doesn't win the title this season. And I think we found out today. Hamilton had to get past him otherwise it was done. The same wasn't true if he had pulled it off. Verstappen doesn't need to take such risks to win races at the moment. That he did today shows that he has a weakness.
    While I was the one who nicknamed him Max Vercrash’em, I think it’s a bit harsh to say that driving along a normal racing line is ‘to take such a risk.’

    Hamilton was reckless. Not lethally so as Horner claimed, but unnecessarily. You don’t have to try and force your way past on lap 1. It was reminiscent of some of Schumacher’s less edifying driving (e.g. the time he thumped Coulthard in I think Argentina in 1998).

    Ten seconds seems about fair for being overly aggressive. And it doesn’t rule him out of winning.
    I'm sorry, you don't get to weave across the track to try to prevent someone getting along side, move back, then take the racing line and expect the other guy who is along side to back off.
    Since from what I have seen of the accident he didn’t do that, I’m not sure what your point is. Certainly Hamilton wasn’t ‘alongside’, he was lunging to get alongside.
    They were alongside:

    https://twitter.com/khooper8695/status/1416764939235102721
    Hamilton’s front wheel was next to Verstappen’s rear wheel.

    I don’t personally think that’s ‘alongside’ but as there’s no one definition feel free to disagree.

    Hamilton was foolish because he’s clearly getting desperate and has got a slap on the wrist for it. Ten seconds is about right. With Leclerc obviously struggling to make it to the end of the race, he should still win. He can count himself pretty lucky.

    Verstappen is doubtless fuming, but ultimately these things do happen in racing and he’s done it to plenty of others over the years.
    Going into the corner, they were level. Hamilton backs off as he's on the inside and he needs to afford Verstappen room on the exit of the corner.

    That Verstappen was on the outside does give him the right to take the corner normally.
    I see something different, but no matter. He’s served his penalty and is now a comfortable fifth. Should easily hold second and then challenge for first.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    Andy_JS said:

    Why do cricket umpires today often do a silly nodding action with their head as they signal 4 runs? They never used to.

    I bet some did, as not every umpire signals in identically the same way, and that you are imagining things.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Well, that was definitely unlucky for Carlos Sainz, however you look at it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092
    pigeon said:


    Indeed.

    Based on current boundaries, a uniform 5% Con to LD swing would cost the Tories 13 seats (two in the North, eleven in the South.) A 2% Lab to Con swing would net the Tories 18 seats (two in the South, two in Wales, six in the Midlands and eight in the North.) A 10% Con to LD swing would net the Lib Dems 26 seats; a 5% Lab to Con swing would result in 44 Tory gains and reduce the PLP to a rump.

    Relative to UNS, the Conservatives still have an awful lot more to gain from a modest overperformance in their target seats versus Labour than they have to lose from a modest underperformance against the Lib Dems in their defences. That's not to say that this won't eventually change, but a substantial demolition of Tory redoubts in Southern England might be a project for several electoral cycles, as has evidently been the case with Labour's woes elsewhere.

    This is why UNS is so unreliable. The Conservatives dropping into the mid to high 30s is one thing but they could still win easily if, for example, the Labour vote rose in the south and the LD vote rose in the north.

    Turn that round and it becomes dangerous for the Conservatives who are caught in an old-fashioned pincer movement between a resurgent Labour vote in the north and a resurgent LD vote in the south.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    FWIW reported deaths data today is actually lower than last Sunday
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    I see Scotland has renounced death.

    (check out the by 28 day date of death chart for Scotland)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556
    Alistair said:

    I see Scotland has renounced death.

    (check out the by 28 day date of death chart for Scotland)

    Looks like Scotland's Excel spreadsheet is broken. To be fixed in tomorrow's update apparently.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    alex_ said:

    FWIW reported deaths data today is actually lower than last Sunday

    Scotland has fucked up their data feed and reported zero deaths.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    48,161, 740, 25

    Quite a lot for a Sunday.
    The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.

    I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.
    We have around 1/8th the number of patients in hospital compared to the January peak. This is not ideal, but to argue lockdown would be needed if admissions went over 1000 a day, when for many the stay in hospital is a few days max, is absurd.
    I agree with you, but do you trust the Prime Minister absolutely not to panic?
    On this, yes. On most other stuff, not so sure. There is too much invested in not going back, that I think it would be a major surprise to get a reversal.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    Alistair said:

    alex_ said:

    FWIW reported deaths data today is actually lower than last Sunday

    Scotland has fucked up their data feed and reported zero deaths.
    Oh, actually it shouldn't have efffevted the "by reported date graph" so this number is actually legit.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    Alistair said:

    I see Scotland has renounced death.

    (check out the by 28 day date of death chart for Scotland)

    Alistair said:

    alex_ said:

    FWIW reported deaths data today is actually lower than last Sunday

    Scotland has fucked up their data feed and reported zero deaths.
    England deaths down from 25 to 21 though. FWIW
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Scott_xP said:

    Freedom Day is the start of the countdown to the next lockdown

    I'm pretty sure there won't be any more lockdowns, because at least 50% of the population wouldn't take any notice of them if they were imposed again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    So what were the odds on Leclerc before the race started? 20 ish?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    Do you have a link to the interview? It's just that 'herd immunity' can mean different things to different people at different times.

    Even with the original Covid variant, was there any way out of this aside from either virus-induced immunity or vaccine-induced immunity?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    I am frustrated that some people think that herd immunity and vaccination are different things. In the U.K. were are aiming for herd immunity mostly via vaccination, with a helping of infection in the mix. Are some people confused, and referring to herd immunity as only something that comes from infection?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Not sure what is going on with the government dashboard and hospital admissions, they have been behind now for over a week.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Freedom Day is the start of the countdown to the next lockdown

    I'm pretty sure there won't be any more lockdowns, because at least 50% of the population wouldn't take any notice of them if they were imposed again.
    The issue of “lockdowns” isn’t about whether the population will take any notice. It’s the businesses that don’t have any choice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    Do you have a link to the interview? It's just that 'herd immunity' can mean different things to different people at different times.

    Even with the original Covid variant, was there any way out of this aside from either virus-induced immunity or vaccine-induced immunity?
    It was this one (from 10 minutes).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C98FmoZVbjs
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    However the strategy assumes that the “by September” peak is “manageable”. If it isn’t then the scientists will be advocating trading a September unmanageable peak for a flatter later one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Freedom Day is the start of the countdown to the next lockdown

    I'm pretty sure there won't be any more lockdowns, because at least 50% of the population wouldn't take any notice of them if they were imposed again.
    The issue of “lockdowns” isn’t about whether the population will take any notice. It’s the businesses that don’t have any choice.
    Well, that's the choice facing the opposition. We know that things as they are now = exponential growth in cases.

    So, if you want to stop it spreading, you have to shut people away as was the case in April 2020. Hopefully the government holds its nerve. Then we'll see what Starmer is made of.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    48,161, 740, 25

    Quite a lot for a Sunday.
    The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.

    I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.
    We have around 1/8th the number of patients in hospital compared to the January peak. This is not ideal, but to argue lockdown would be needed if admissions went over 1000 a day, when for many the stay in hospital is a few days max, is absurd.
    I agree with you, but do you trust the Prime Minister absolutely not to panic?
    On this, yes. On most other stuff, not so sure. There is too much invested in not going back, that I think it would be a major surprise to get a reversal.
    Well, we shall see what transpires. Bear in mind that he's probably going to have to endure at least another month of rising hospital admissions, accompanied by increasingly portentous warnings from a large section of the scientific community and panic amongst much of the media (and, consequently, the electorate,) without giving in and starting to reimpose restrictions. That could prove challenging.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898

    Not sure what is going on with the government dashboard and hospital admissions, they have been behind now for over a week.

    They are as delayed as the Scotland figures (which are fairly delayed) , if you switch to England only and look at the data it is only a couple of days behind.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    Andy_JS said:

    Why do cricket umpires today often do a silly nodding action with their head as they signal 4 runs? They never used to.

    They've been doing that for ages. I think it dates from the 70s. Not sure why it started but I guess it's one of those where people just go along with it. Bit silly though, I agree.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    But not by infection.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    Alistair said:

    Not sure what is going on with the government dashboard and hospital admissions, they have been behind now for over a week.

    They are as delayed as the Scotland figures (which are fairly delayed) , if you switch to England only and look at the data it is only a couple of days behind.
    Oh wait, I'm getting confused between admissions and in hospital.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    I am frustrated that some people think that herd immunity and vaccination are different things. In the U.K. were are aiming for herd immunity mostly via vaccination, with a helping of infection in the mix. Are some people confused, and referring to herd immunity as only something that comes from infection?
    Lots of people don’t understand what “herd immunity” means. Hence things like PT’s theory about the virus “picking off the unvaccinated/filling in the gaps” even after herd immunity has been reached.

    My understanding is that the point of herd immunity is that the “vulnerable” unvaccinated and/or previously uninflected are actually protected.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    48,161, 740, 25

    Quite a lot for a Sunday.
    The hospital admissions haven't been updated since Tuesday. Once the numbers come up-to-date the value reported for "freedom day" tomorrow will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of 900.

    I reckon that the finger starts hovering over the lockdown button once they pass 1,000 per day and keep going up for about ten days after that; if that happens then we should be looking out for signs of real panic in Government from around the start of August.
    We have around 1/8th the number of patients in hospital compared to the January peak. This is not ideal, but to argue lockdown would be needed if admissions went over 1000 a day, when for many the stay in hospital is a few days max, is absurd.
    I agree with you, but do you trust the Prime Minister absolutely not to panic?
    On this, yes. On most other stuff, not so sure. There is too much invested in not going back, that I think it would be a major surprise to get a reversal.
    Well, we shall see what transpires. Bear in mind that he's probably going to have to endure at least another month of rising hospital admissions, accompanied by increasingly portentous warnings from a large section of the scientific community and panic amongst much of the media (and, consequently, the electorate,) without giving in and starting to reimpose restrictions. That could prove challenging.
    I’ve given my reasons before why, but I think cases in England will start to decline next week ( so about 10 days hence) as the schools shutting and footy ending kicks in. There are very few olympic gatherings in the pub, especially with the timing for U.K. viewing. We are probably in the toughest stretch now, and for those next 10 days.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,601

    Do you have a link to the interview? It's just that 'herd immunity' can mean different things to different people at different times.

    Even with the original Covid variant, was there any way out of this aside from either virus-induced immunity or vaccine-induced immunity?

    I was wondering about that the other day. Maybe China could have kept the lid on it in late 2019, but by the time there were substantial outbreaks in places like Italy it was probably beyond our ability to snuff out the virus.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    But not by infection.
    Isn't the point that for c.50% of people (e.g. Andrew Marr), they will get COVID even if vaccinated. It's herd immunity but with our immune systems given a head start.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    alex_ said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    I am frustrated that some people think that herd immunity and vaccination are different things. In the U.K. were are aiming for herd immunity mostly via vaccination, with a helping of infection in the mix. Are some people confused, and referring to herd immunity as only something that comes from infection?
    Lots of people don’t understand what “herd immunity” means. Hence things like PT’s theory about the virus “picking off the unvaccinated/filling in the gaps” even after herd immunity has been reached.

    My understanding is that the point of herd immunity is that the “vulnerable” unvaccinated and/or previously uninflected are actually protected.
    True herd immunity will imply that the virus R is below one without other intervention, and thus outbreaks tail off of their own accord. PT is correct that there will still be pockets, partly as vaccine coverage will be spotty.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556
    alex_ said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    However the strategy assumes that the “by September” peak is “manageable”. If it isn’t then the scientists will be advocating trading a September unmanageable peak for a flatter later one.
    The stats from the earliest/worst affected areas suggest that this should be manageable, and that the ever-rising hospital workload seen at the moment is simply the result of patient numbers rising from very low to moderate levels all over the country.

    However, the total numbers (which is all the TV, newspapers and the public are looking at, rather than what's happening in individual trusts or health board areas) are liable to get scary looking. Cue desperate cries from ISAGE, worn-out medics, editors looking for clickbait, and charities representing old and vulnerable people, all demanding that Something Must Be Done. Regardless of whether or not Something is actually going to do any good, or simply boot the exit wave into Winter at significant additional cost.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    But not by infection.
    Isn't the point that for c.50% of people (e.g. Andrew Marr), they will get COVID even if vaccinated. It's herd immunity but with our immune systems given a head start.
    Sort of, yes. HI - or close - by vax primarily, complemented by infection. I'd say that's our target.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,601
    pigeon said:

    However, the total numbers (which is all the TV, newspapers and the public are looking at, rather than what's happening in individual trusts or health board areas) are liable to get scary looking. Cue desperate cries from ISAGE, worn-out medics, editors looking for clickbait, and charities representing old and vulnerable people, all demanding that Something Must Be Done. Regardless of whether or not Something is actually going to do any good, or simply boot the exit wave into Winter at significant additional cost.

    That's the point Dr. Chris Smith (a virologist) was making yesterday. Do we want to delay cases until winter, or to even further ahead to when there might be an even worse variant? No we don't.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    Has anyone actually published any stats about how many of those in hospital are vaxxed, or are they keeping it under wraps?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    If Hamilton doesn’t win from here, karma will have bitten him in an unexpected way.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    ydoethur said:

    If Hamilton doesn’t win from here, karma will have bitten him in an unexpected way.

    I don’t think he’d be that disappointed with second
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited July 18
    alex_ said:

    Has anyone actually published any stats about how many of those in hospital are vaxxed, or are they keeping it under wraps?

    About 15% are fully vaxxed. And is about the same with cases. What we have no idea a out is the make up of those that are dying.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    But not by infection.
    Isn't the point that for c.50% of people (e.g. Andrew Marr), they will get COVID even if vaccinated. It's herd immunity but with our immune systems given a head start.
    Sort of, yes. HI - or close - by vax primarily, complemented by infection. I'd say that's our target.
    I'm still eight days from my second dose, but I can understand the government has to make the call at some point. If I really cared, I could lock myself away for the next three weeks.

    We are getting to the point where it is becoming harder to find people who want the jab. I get that it's tough for those with compromised immune systems, but all I can suggest is that those people need to lock themselves away whilst the rest of us achieve immunity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    You don’t overtake at Copse….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Poetic justice. Hamilton makes a move at Copse stick. That's why Verstappen cut the corner. Leclerc played it fair and he ran wide.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited July 18
    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast. And he showed Hamilton the respect he deserved.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    edited July 18
    alex_ said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    I am frustrated that some people think that herd immunity and vaccination are different things. In the U.K. were are aiming for herd immunity mostly via vaccination, with a helping of infection in the mix. Are some people confused, and referring to herd immunity as only something that comes from infection?
    Lots of people don’t understand what “herd immunity” means. Hence things like PT’s theory about the virus “picking off the unvaccinated/filling in the gaps” even after herd immunity has been reached.

    My understanding is that the point of herd immunity is that the “vulnerable” unvaccinated and/or previously uninflected are actually protected.
    The term 'herd' does not work popularly in any human context which includes oneself. It's like 'the wrong crowd' which people's children get caught up in before robbing banks. No-one ever is 'the wrong crowd' themselves. And no-one is part of a herd.

    The answer is to rename 'herd immunity' something like 'community resilience'.
    As we rely on loads of these acquired immunities and partial immunities to carry on living it's pretty essential to get the message across.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    Go Lewis!!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    alex_ said:

    Has anyone actually published any stats about how many of those in hospital are vaxxed, or are they keeping it under wraps?

    In my Trust it looks to be about 10% fully vaxxed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast. And he showed Hamilton the respect he deserved.
    No tyres left - he couldn’t do anything.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    algarkirk said:

    alex_ said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Prof Pantsdown thinks we are in for a long period of high case numbers...

    BBC News - Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57877033

    Well, his figures on cases may be right, but even so his logic seems to be that actually it’s better to have it now and get the peak out of the way by September.
    That’s the strategy in a nutshell
    The infamous interview before the first lockdown on Channel 4 News when Prof John Edmunds said that herd immunity was the only way out in the long run has stood up very well, despite the attacks he got at the time.
    I am frustrated that some people think that herd immunity and vaccination are different things. In the U.K. were are aiming for herd immunity mostly via vaccination, with a helping of infection in the mix. Are some people confused, and referring to herd immunity as only something that comes from infection?
    Lots of people don’t understand what “herd immunity” means. Hence things like PT’s theory about the virus “picking off the unvaccinated/filling in the gaps” even after herd immunity has been reached.

    My understanding is that the point of herd immunity is that the “vulnerable” unvaccinated and/or previously uninflected are actually protected.
    The term 'herd' does not work popularly in any human context which includes oneself. It's like 'the wrong crowd' which people's children get caught up in before robbing banks. No-one ever is 'the wrong crowd' themselves. And no-one is part of a herd.

    The answer is to rename 'herd immunity' something like 'community resilience'.
    As we rely on loads of these acquired immunities and partial immunities to carry on living it's pretty essential to get the message across.

    Who cares what words are used. It's the meaning that matters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited July 18
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast.
    If you say so.

    You’re clearly wrong this time, if only because Hamilton took t much faster, but if you say so.

    I wonder though if Hamilton was wise to do that. I’m not assuming the stewards will reopen their enquiry - would be rather excessive for them to punish him twice - but he’s just demonstrated that he can crowd a driver off the track with that line. How’s that going to play with his many enemies and critics in F1?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    Expect some salty comments from Horner.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast.
    If you say so.

    You’re clearly wrong this time, if only because Hamilton took t much faster, but if you say so.

    I wonder though if Hamilton was wise to do that. I’m not assuming the stewards will reopen their enquiry - would be rather excessive for them to punish him twice - but he’s just demonstrated that he can crowd a driver off the track with that line. How’s that going to play with his many enemies and critics in F1?
    Being on the outside does not give you the right to take the "racing line".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    In Texas, where guns are legal, but not cutting your lawn is a crime:

    A Fort Worth man who didn’t want to cut his lawn opened fire on city staff and police trying to enforce code compliance. He kept a SWAT team at bay for hours before surrendering.

    Texas lawmakers just eliminated the state’s gun permitting system. #txlege https://t.co/l79hAymvUz
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Scott_xP said:

    felix said:

    Lol.

    Voting for him is a joke?

    No wonder he thinks you are an idiot.
    Still don't get it - you're the joke.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429
    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    I really don't see it that way ... For one thing, look at the previous few corners before the collision on the fist lap. Max is an aggressive but generally fair driver. When facing that, you either have to let them keep the position or just go for it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited July 18
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast.
    If you say so.

    You’re clearly wrong this time, if only because Hamilton took t much faster, but if you say so.

    I wonder though if Hamilton was wise to do that. I’m not assuming the stewards will reopen their enquiry - would be rather excessive for them to punish him twice - but he’s just demonstrated that he can crowd a driver off the track with that line. How’s that going to play with his many enemies and critics in F1?
    Being on the outside does not give you the right to take the "racing line".
    Ummm - nothing gives anyone the right to force another driver off the track.

    Indeed, isn’t that what you were accusing Verstappen of trying to do?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895
    algarkirk said:


    The centre left and centre right are now asymmetric. To vote for a centre right government you have to vote Tory; there being no alternative. Three and a half (SNP) parties look for the centre left vote. Obviously this creates a great opportunity for coalition but has two dangers. Lots of people in the south who sometimes vote LD don't want a Labour led government. And the opportunities for carefully managing the campaign so as to split the centre left parties to Tory advantage is obvious.

    And also, the further north you go in England the less people want the SNP having a say in government because northern England values the union. The further south you go, the less they want the SNP having a say in government because they are the SNP.

    These will be big issues at election time even though they don't resonate much now.

    Yes, up to a point you're right, but it's more complicated.

    1. Plenty of traditional Tories don't recognise what we have as a real Tory government - authoritarian, high-spending and populist government is not their thing. They would still turn out if they were terrified by Starmer, but terrifying is one thing he's not. Many people of this type may not bother to vote.

    2. National polls understate tactical voting, which is heavily concentrated on the centre-left, as we have just seen in both by-elections. A poll showing something like Con 38 Lab 31 LD 12 Green 6 is not comfortable for the Tories, since perhaps half of the centre-left party supporters will switch to the main anti-Tory challenger in seats where it's clear.

    There are factors pointing the other way - e.g. that Labour turnout is currently likely to be weak - but it's not straightforward.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    So yesterday was the peak then?

    All plain sailing from here on in.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    glw said:

    Do you have a link to the interview? It's just that 'herd immunity' can mean different things to different people at different times.

    Even with the original Covid variant, was there any way out of this aside from either virus-induced immunity or vaccine-induced immunity?

    I was wondering about that the other day. Maybe China could have kept the lid on it in late 2019, but by the time there were substantial outbreaks in places like Italy it was probably beyond our ability to snuff out the virus.
    Why did so many people believe in "Zero Covid"?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast.
    If you say so.

    You’re clearly wrong this time, if only because Hamilton took t much faster, but if you say so.

    I wonder though if Hamilton was wise to do that. I’m not assuming the stewards will reopen their enquiry - would be rather excessive for them to punish him twice - but he’s just demonstrated that he can crowd a driver off the track with that line. How’s that going to play with his many enemies and critics in F1?
    Being on the outside does not give you the right to take the "racing line".
    Ummm - nothing gives anyone the right to force another driver off the track.

    Indeed, isn’t that hat you were accusing Verstappen of trying to do?
    It's not sailing, but it's similar. Verstappen entered Hamilton's water so to speak. On the Leclerc move, he had room on the outside, but couldn't make the corner because he was going too fast.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast.
    If you say so.

    You’re clearly wrong this time, if only because Hamilton took t much faster, but if you say so.

    I wonder though if Hamilton was wise to do that. I’m not assuming the stewards will reopen their enquiry - would be rather excessive for them to punish him twice - but he’s just demonstrated that he can crowd a driver off the track with that line. How’s that going to play with his many enemies and critics in F1?
    Leclerc had no tyres left, he wasn’t crowded off the track; the corner was always Hamilton’s.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    WHAT A CATCH!!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    So yesterday was the peak then?

    All plain sailing from here on in.

    Just in time for Freedom Day...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,484
    Foxy said:

    In Texas, where guns are legal, but not cutting your lawn is a crime:

    A Fort Worth man who didn’t want to cut his lawn opened fire on city staff and police trying to enforce code compliance. He kept a SWAT team at bay for hours before surrendering.

    Texas lawmakers just eliminated the state’s gun permitting system. #txlege https://t.co/l79hAymvUz

    Batshit crazy America
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    felix said:

    Still don't get it

    You still haven't explained why you vote for a man who thinks you are an idiot
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    ydoethur said:

    WHAT A CATCH!!!

    Filthy ball though...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    I really don't see it that way ... For one thing, look at the previous few corners before the collision on the fist lap. Max is an aggressive but generally fair driver. When facing that, you either have to let them keep the position or just go for it.
    That was always going to happen at some point this season. For too long, Max has has put the other driver in the position of needing to avoid the accident...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 556
    Andy_JS said:

    glw said:

    Do you have a link to the interview? It's just that 'herd immunity' can mean different things to different people at different times.

    Even with the original Covid variant, was there any way out of this aside from either virus-induced immunity or vaccine-induced immunity?

    I was wondering about that the other day. Maybe China could have kept the lid on it in late 2019, but by the time there were substantial outbreaks in places like Italy it was probably beyond our ability to snuff out the virus.
    Why did so many people believe in "Zero Covid"?
    Perhaps they thought that Britain could do a New Zealand if only we tried hard enough?

    Realistically that was never going to work.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429
    Nigelb said:

    Expect some salty comments from Horner.

    It is interesting to compare Horner and Wolff. IMV Wolff generally (though not always) comes across as more honest, less bleating. Horner is more than a little whingy, and always has been. I simply cannot stand Helmut Marko.

    The way Red Bull always took the win for themselves when they won, and often blamed Renault when they didn't, peeved me intensely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    ydoethur said:

    WHAT A CATCH!!!

    Filthy ball though...
    And the next one is a doozy that beats slip on the half volley and goes for four.

    Funny old world...
  • Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone actually published any stats about how many of those in hospital are vaxxed, or are they keeping it under wraps?

    In my Trust it looks to be about 10% fully vaxxed.
    Would that be consistent with 93% efficacy I hear mentioned?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,442
    What a race. Yes - the first incident was unfortunate but that’s what you get when two greats go at it and don’t give anything away.

    LeClerc lost it on copse - did what Verstappen wasn’t prepared to do.

    But no driver has a right to get a 10 second penalty and still come back to win. Hamilton is something special
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    Tom Cruise at the GP then. What a pleasant surprise for everyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    What a race. Yes - the first incident was unfortunate but that’s what you get when two greats go at it and don’t give anything away.

    LeClerc lost it on copse - did what Verstappen wasn’t prepared to do.

    But no driver has a right to get a 10 second penalty and still come back to win. Hamilton is something special

    He does remind me very much of Schumacher.

    For good and for ill.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone actually published any stats about how many of those in hospital are vaxxed, or are they keeping it under wraps?

    In my Trust it looks to be about 10% fully vaxxed.
    Would that be consistent with 93% efficacy I hear mentioned?
    Probably, the data are a little murky.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,119
    Foxy said:

    So yesterday was the peak then?

    All plain sailing from here on in.

    Just in time for Freedom Day...
    No COVID allowed from tomorrow.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s what Hamilton was trying to do to Verstappen on lap 1 - drive him off the track.

    But this time, it worked, because Leclerc was scared of him.

    Bollocks, Leclerc took the corner too fast. And he showed Hamilton the respect he deserved.
    He just passed a last legs car. That's all.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,442
    ydoethur said:

    What a race. Yes - the first incident was unfortunate but that’s what you get when two greats go at it and don’t give anything away.

    LeClerc lost it on copse - did what Verstappen wasn’t prepared to do.

    But no driver has a right to get a 10 second penalty and still come back to win. Hamilton is something special

    He does remind me very much of Schumacher.

    For good and for ill.
    Yes - very Remiscent of Schumacher. I guess there’s a reason both are 7 time World champs
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    ydoethur said:

    WHAT A CATCH!!!

    Adil has always been known for the excellence of his fielding.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    The worst kind of scandal is one that goes with the grain of people's prejudices;


    Savanta ComRes snap polling: 75% say it’s one rule for them and one for everyone else
    https://t.co/DmnkDkxlpe
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746

    Currently being spammed by the Tele -

    'Freedom Day is tomorrow. Save over 85% now.'

    Not even if you saved 200%, unless short of loo roll
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,308
    What a race from Lewis. World champion energy.

    Small dick energy from Red Bull as usual though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited July 18
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    WHAT A CATCH!!!

    Adil has always been known for the excellence of his fielding.
    Jumping away from his follow through off balance catching in his wrong hand at full stretch is quite impressive even by his standards.

    Edit - that was a very good catch as well given it was coming out of the sun.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    glw said:

    Do you have a link to the interview? It's just that 'herd immunity' can mean different things to different people at different times.

    Even with the original Covid variant, was there any way out of this aside from either virus-induced immunity or vaccine-induced immunity?

    I was wondering about that the other day. Maybe China could have kept the lid on it in late 2019, but by the time there were substantial outbreaks in places like Italy it was probably beyond our ability to snuff out the virus.
    Why did so many people believe in "Zero Covid"?
    Perhaps they thought that Britain could do a New Zealand if only we tried hard enough?

    Realistically that was never going to work.
    I think for people who have never been to NZ it can be hard to appreciate how far it is from other countries. It’s not like the U.K. which is about 25 miles from Europe and actually linked by a rail line. Plus so much travel goes through our airports, whereas realistically you only need to fly to NZ if you are going there.
    When I worked at Auckland uni, I had to get used to ordering chemicals with a three month lead time, not the next day delivery I have in the U.K. it was never plausible for the U.K. to do zero Covid. Besides, it was almost certainly here before we realised.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Foxy said:

    So yesterday was the peak then?

    All plain sailing from here on in.

    Just in time for Freedom Day...
    No COVID allowed from tomorrow.
    Just stop testing. Simples! 🤦‍♂️
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    What a race. Yes - the first incident was unfortunate but that’s what you get when two greats go at it and don’t give anything away.

    LeClerc lost it on copse - did what Verstappen wasn’t prepared to do.

    But no driver has a right to get a 10 second penalty and still come back to win. Hamilton is something special

    I was at Silverstone in 2006. He won the GP2 feature race on the Saturday and so started eighth for the sprint race on the Sunday (they reverse the top 8 from Saturday). He won the sprint race easily. It was obvious that he was going to be special and I wanted McLaren to stick him in their car after Montoya did a runner.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    WHAT A CATCH!!!

    Filthy ball though...
    And the next one is a doozy that beats slip on the half volley and goes for four.

    Funny old world...
    I should get wickets every ball, as every ball I bowl is pure filth... Pakistan starting to look in trouble now, four down and rate climbing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    ydoethur said:

    What a race. Yes - the first incident was unfortunate but that’s what you get when two greats go at it and don’t give anything away.

    LeClerc lost it on copse - did what Verstappen wasn’t prepared to do.

    But no driver has a right to get a 10 second penalty and still come back to win. Hamilton is something special

    He does remind me very much of Schumacher.

    For good and for ill.
    Similarly relentless, but a far fairer racer, IMO.
This discussion has been closed.