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Farage opts for retirement 2021 style – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Yes, this is scary


    IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?

    Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.

    OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats

    It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
    The vaccines are effective against Delta and not only that vaccines, now we have them, can be tweaked to take account of new variants.

    It really isn’t doom and gloom

    https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-delta-variant/
    We know they can be tweaked, but we aren't getting the tweaked ones for 6-9 months minimum.

    Booster with mix and match approach is the best we have for the foreseeable future.
    Could be quite a lot faster than that for AZ.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Yes, this is scary


    IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?

    Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.

    OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats

    Well also boosters start being administered in 6 weeks. Its a big downer though that not getting updated vaccines until next year.
    This is the first time I've been properly, logically worried since about April, when it became blindingly obvious the vaccines were working

    Since then I've presumed the virus was on the run, and even if victory was distant, it was assured

    Now? I wobble. I know this is unlike me, but meh. The news is quietly ominous
    The problem at the moment is we don't really even know what is going on...lots of cases, no official word on what percentage are unvaxxed, single dose, filly vaxxed (only from ZOE app), then hospitalisations, seems about 15% of the total might be fully vaxxed, but are also very old, have loads of other conditions? And the deaths, again how many are fully vaxxed and how many are 105 with a list of medical conditions as long as Boris kids birthday list?

    Or is it across the board, still hospitalisations / deaths among double vaxxed not that old pretty fit and healthy 50-60 year olds?
    The ones on our ICU are mostly the young, some on ventilators in their twenties, definitely younger than the last wave. Not particularly lots of co morbidity, more just the short straw. There are some double vaxxed older patients too, but a small minority. Once again not particularly co-morbidities, but those with lots don't get to ICU, so may be a biased sample.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Could be the difference in dosing gaps tbf, maybe this is why the JCVI are unwilling to shorten from 8 weeks to 4 weeks.
    Very well said. Would explain that.

    I'm not sure why people would get breathless about data out of Israel now. There is clearly much, much, much more data out of the UK than there is from Israel - both because there's been many more Delta cases here proportionately, but also because the UK is much bigger than Israel too.

    Israel's data is interesting but its no longer the tell all that it used to be. The JCVI ought to have much more accurate data.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.

    There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
    Except:

    Alastair McLellan
    @HSJEditor
    Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8

    https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1416429557549240323
    But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
    Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
    When we are locked down again this autumn it will be about the hospitals and not about the death rate.
    As I work for myself I've always been able to go about my business entirely within the 'lockdown' laws - but apart from a few exceptions I have not gone on my usual buying/selling trips. If they're stupid enough to bring them back in the autumn, and if Boris survives the leadership confidence vote that it would trigger, I will be doing just that and carrying on regardless.
    Enforcement in the autumn is going to be a major headache for the government. That's if, as you say, Johnson isn't removed, although I suspect that if it came close to that point it would be the 1922 rebels that back down in the main.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243
    Scott_xP said:
    What I don't get about these conversations is why Boris would open his heart so honestly to Cummings, when Cummings among others says how untrustworthy Boris is, and when Cummings had so little respect for Boris that it's hard to believe Boris did not notice, so why open up to him like that?

    I mean, I can believe that Boris says many of these things, but the way Dom presents them along with his other opinions just don't seem to add up for me.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,920
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Yes, this is scary


    IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?

    Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.

    OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats

    Hold on a second captain mainwaring. mRNA vaccines are inoculations as software. The formula can be tweaked in a matter of days. If there was any serious concern about vaccine escape, this can now be addressed pronto. However, all expert opinion indicates that sars-cov2 is relatively immutable and there’s no need to panic, as has been backed up by molecular modelling.

    We have also been promised the ramping up of domestic vaccine manufacturing capability so the UK becomes a vaccine superpower. Any update on that?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    We should be getting plenty of other comparators like the US as their delta wave builds.

    Important thing to remember about America is how incredibly slowly they collate data.

    A favourite tactic of Covid Dat Wranglers last year was to point at state graphs that were going down and to the right saying "look, covid is over in Arizona/Texas /Georgia" and then not revisit them after a mont to see the downward slope had turned into "up and to the right"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    Foxy said:

    James Ward
    @JamesWard73
    ·
    2h
    in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:

    https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1416470141886402560




    Oh Sweet Covid... da, da, da...

    The LCFC message boards are a litany of covid cases from attending the SF and Final. A lot saying that they are going to avoid the Charity Shield as a result.
    The question is did they get it from sitting on trains and buses, or is the widely preception that outdoors is like a magic invincibility shield not true against Indian variant?
    Not just on the tube, but even the queues to simply get to the tube were over an hour, packed like sardines. That length of time and proximity probably overrides it being outdoors. Thats for the part of the crowd who even wanted some social distancing, tens of thousands would have been in close proximity to random strangers for many hours on those two days.
    Also you see it all the time, people put their mask on at the moment they go inside a shop or train, whip it off the second they leave. Plus with football all the screaming, shouting, chanting, singing...
    I wonder whether we will ever see the results of this "trial" into large arena sporting events?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Yes, this is scary


    IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?

    Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.

    OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats

    It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
    The vaccines are effective against Delta and not only that vaccines, now we have them, can be tweaked to take account of new variants.

    It really isn’t doom and gloom

    https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-delta-variant/
    We know they can be tweaked, but we aren't getting the tweaked ones for 6-9 months minimum.

    Booster with mix and match approach is the best we have for the foreseeable future.
    Could be quite a lot faster than that for AZ.
    They need to fire up the quattro....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    kinabalu said:

    James Ward
    @JamesWard73
    ·
    2h
    in case you're in any doubt that this is mostly a football-linked spike in cases, see the gender divide in case growth rates over the last few days:

    https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1416470141886402560




    Oh Sweet Covid... da, da, da...

    Bit sexist, ladies like the footy too....
    But they don't like getting trashed and putting things up their bums. Or not so much anyway.
    We must move in different circles.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    On the Sajid Javid story: it'll be interesting to see whether or not Johnson is locked up in his flat for ten days like a good boy, or if some feeble excuse for letting him carry on regardless is concocted.

    The latter should drive up the deletion rate for the Covid app another couple of notches.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    Are you really trying to compare individual days now with a weekly average in a different period ?

    Really ???
    How is Kirklees working out for you?

    Edit: thr implication is that the Bol on current 7 day average is going to rise pas the May "peak".
    Kirklees has significantly fewer cases now than it did last autumn:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees

    Different places have different levels of cases and over different periods of time but its quite clear that nowhere goes exponential to infinity.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Yes, this is scary


    IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?

    Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.

    OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats

    It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
    The vaccines are effective against Delta and not only that vaccines, now we have them, can be tweaked to take account of new variants.

    It really isn’t doom and gloom

    https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-delta-variant/
    We know they can be tweaked, but we aren't getting the tweaked ones for 6-9 months minimum.

    Booster with mix and match approach is the best we have for the foreseeable future.
    Could be quite a lot faster than that for AZ.
    They need to fire up the quattro....
    Gene Therapy Hunt?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    edited July 2021
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Yes, this is scary


    IF - a monstrous IF - the Delta variant significantly dodges the vaccines, then we are in for a world of pain. Indeed I don't know how we escape the hideous cycle of lockdowns. Perhaps we just accept that millions will die globally, and we reinforce health systems to cope?

    Basically we accept that we have a new virulent disease maybe as bad as smallpox once was. And always the possibility of nastier variants yet.

    OR this is the last big scare, and the fucking pox will fade away in a few weeks, in vaxed countries, because Delta isn't all that - and the UK example is "promising", so far - ie huge case numbers are not matched by deaths or ICU stats

    It doesn’t. We’d already see it here where delta is now the almost exclusive strain.
    The vaccines are effective against Delta and not only that vaccines, now we have them, can be tweaked to take account of new variants.

    It really isn’t doom and gloom

    https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-delta-variant/
    We know they can be tweaked, but we aren't getting the tweaked ones for 6-9 months minimum.

    Booster with mix and match approach is the best we have for the foreseeable future.
    Which is fine. My point is it really is not all doom and gloom at the moment. The vaccines do appear to have broken the link between infections and hospitalisation.

    The mix and match trials also look promising.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    R is 10???
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.

    There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
    Except:

    Alastair McLellan
    @HSJEditor
    Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8

    https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1416429557549240323
    But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?

    Exactly. Vaccines are our way out of this. We have to live with Covid as it is not going away.
    I don’t want to be rude or anything, but this has moved on now from such binary mindset.

    For example when is restriction on us not restriction on us, when does living with Covid turn back into a lockdown?

    We are a matter of hours from freedom day, but arguably we haven’t been in a lockdown for months. In fact A lot of people arguably have never been in lockdown, they have been “living with covid” from the start, working with and shopping with, and living with it from the start - but sensibly, not close my eyes convince myself it’s not there “living with it”.

    And if we have freedom day, when did we stop being free, March 2020? During this period we have had dishes on rishi, builders flat out, beaches full of people, for lot of last 16 months pubs, cafe, restaurants, have been open, travel hasn’t been limited, supermarkets and shops open to buy pretty much whatever you like.

    Yet your binary thinking still does the “ what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?”. “ way out of this.” “Freedom day”.

    The future is not going to be binary, a one size fits Living with Covid, it will have restrictions, if not government edict, laws, it will be self imposed common sense, where you can travel but choose not to, where you can host large dinner parties but choose not too, where you can go into a packed stadium or nite spot but choose not too.

    It’s moving from the virological now to the behaviour sciences. Living with it has moved on from lockdown/back to how it was binary thinking.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.

    I wouldn't say relaxed, but it's probably the least bad time for it to occur.
    Spectator reported last night that Johnson got cold feet a few days ago but it was too late to stop the mobilisation of the trains as he had spent all that time going on about 'freedom day' and so on.
    Personally I think we should focus on vaccinating everyone, children included and then open up. Failing that we should relax, enjoy life and hope for the best. But this "be free but be careful" and "we leave it to individual judgment" crap merely means that we're all exposed to the most reckless people we encounter, and when it goes pear-shaped it will be supposed to be our fault.

    However, I do think Sajid Javid's statement on getting the bug strikes exactly the right note - concerned but not panicking, emphasising the importance of vaccination, thanking the NHS and not a hint of self-aggrandisment or party politics. I hope it stays mild and he's back in action soon.
    How many kids would be vaccinated ?

    Maybe a million or two but hardly a game changer especially as the number of teenagers being hospitalised is next to nothing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    Under no circumstances should we lock down again to protect antivaxxers.

    Open up the Nightingales and throw them in there. If they make it, they make it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    pigeon said:

    On the Sajid Javid story: it'll be interesting to see whether or not Johnson is locked up in his flat for ten days like a good boy, or if some feeble excuse for letting him carry on regardless is concocted.

    The latter should drive up the deletion rate for the Covid app another couple of notches.

    It will transpire that Johnson did meet Javid, but for less than 15 minutes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    R is 10???
    rcs made that claim today, with some authority

    Yes, R10 in unvaxxed communities, which is frankly horrifying

    It makes it one of the most infectious diseases humanity has ever encountered
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    Under no circumstances should we lock down again to protect antivaxxers.

    Open up the Nightingales and throw them in there. If they make it, they make it.
    Ronnie Cox
    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    Daily Mail website is full of stories this evening of "famous" people who have tested positive for COVID despite being double vaccinated. I wonder how many months they will keep this up?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What I don't get about these conversations is why Boris would open his heart so honestly to Cummings, when Cummings among others says how untrustworthy Boris is, and when Cummings had so little respect for Boris that it's hard to believe Boris did not notice, so why open up to him like that?

    I mean, I can believe that Boris says many of these things, but the way Dom presents them along with his other opinions just don't seem to add up for me.
    Had Boris ever watched jaws? The mayor was a clueless greed driven prat.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    Are you really trying to compare individual days now with a weekly average in a different period ?

    Really ???
    How is Kirklees working out for you?

    Edit: thr implication is that the Bol on current 7 day average is going to rise pas the May "peak".
    Kirklees has significantly fewer cases now than it did last autumn:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees

    Different places have different levels of cases and over different periods of time but its quite clear that nowhere goes exponential to infinity.
    Absolutely tremendous goalpost shifting.

    Just, Phenomenal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    Interestingly Dr Chris Smith "the Naked Scientist" and an actual virologist has just been on the radio and agreeing with the government's approach. He seemed to be saying that unlocking in summer makes more sense than any other season, that waiting would likely result in us unlocking when a worse variant is circulating, and that as we are reaching 90% of adults vaccinated there's no reason to delay unlocking. He's definitely in the "least bad option" camp.

    There is no question that the government is pretty relaxed about large number of cases in July and August and would much rather we have that then than in the period from November to February. Herd immunity is all we have left amongst the unvaxxed and we had better get on with it when the hospitals are well placed to cope.
    Except:

    Alastair McLellan
    @HSJEditor
    Yesterday I was asked to prepare a brief about the situation in the NHS for a senior (non-Gov) political figure, who was about to do some media interviews. Now that's done - I thought you might like to see it (thread follows) 1/8

    https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1416429557549240323
    But what's the alternative, go back to step 1 and stay there forever?
    Max, I genuinely think some would do that, right now. Back to lockdown (the proper version) to get the cases under control. This is despite the absolute success of the vaccines. The most important dataset is the deaths from Covid. The current wave hardly registers at all. We will undoubtedly have some tough times for the hospitals and more deaths, but the truth is we need to hold our nerve, take personal responsibility and try our best to get through. And I really hope the jcvi gets round to the idea of vaccinating the 11 to 18 year old cohorts.
    When we are locked down again this autumn it will be about the hospitals and not about the death rate.
    I’m confident we won’t be locked down in the autumn. This exit wave was for seen, and frankly the virus is running out of the unvaccinated to infect. The Zoe data is showing the plateau, with the schools closing, the footy over, the fall seen in Scotland is heading south soon.
    Very much hope you are right and I am wrong.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,778

    Daily Mail website is full of stories this evening of "famous" people who have tested positive for COVID despite being double vaccinated. I wonder how many months they will keep this up?

    Where is the article about the much larger number of famous people who didn't get infected or who are still alive due to the vaccine?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited July 2021
    Shakespeare cancelled...too much language of the colonial racist oppressor.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9798379/English-operated-language-coloniser-students-told.html
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Two headlines from the Torygraph:

    Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Sage adviser warns

    Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 500,000 times the size of viral Covid particles

    Children will only get Covid vaccines if vulnerable

    Ministers decide against mass vaccination for teenagers on advice of scientists

    The former is part of the ongoing academic argument about gags, which will make no practical difference: they're going to be around for a very long time. We still await an official announcement concerning the latter, of course - though if ministers do elect not to vaccinate most children, one has to wonder how much this has to do with their welfare, and how much is to do with concerns that vaccine supplies are inadequate to cover the completion of the program for adults, the forthcoming booster campaign and millions of jabs for kids simultaneously.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    edited July 2021
    25 hours to Freedom Day.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    edited July 2021

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    Are you really trying to compare individual days now with a weekly average in a different period ?

    Really ???
    How is Kirklees working out for you?

    Edit: thr implication is that the Bol on current 7 day average is going to rise pas the May "peak".
    Kirklees has significantly fewer cases now than it did last autumn:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees

    Different places have different levels of cases and over different periods of time but its quite clear that nowhere goes exponential to infinity.
    Not to mention that Kirklees has lower levels of covid than all the surrounding boroughs.

    And that the 'Dewsbury Savile Town & Thornhill Lees MSOA where Delta first appeared in Kirklees has had this number of infections:

    w/e 10/05/21 0-2
    w/e 17/05/21 55
    w/e 24/05/21 42
    w/e 31/05/21 30
    w/e 07/06/21 19
    w/e 14/06/21 30
    w/e 21/06/21 20
    w/e 28/06/21 26
    w/e 05/07/21 26
    w/e 12/07/21 30
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    Britain has opted against mass Covid vaccinations for all children and teenagers, with ministers instead preparing to offer jabs to vulnerable 12 to 15-year-olds and those about to turn 18, The Telegraph can disclose.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/17/children-will-get-covid-vaccines-vulnerable/
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    Are you really trying to compare individual days now with a weekly average in a different period ?

    Really ???
    How is Kirklees working out for you?

    Edit: thr implication is that the Bol on current 7 day average is going to rise pas the May "peak".
    Kirklees has significantly fewer cases now than it did last autumn:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees

    Different places have different levels of cases and over different periods of time but its quite clear that nowhere goes exponential to infinity.
    Absolutely tremendous goalpost shifting.

    Just, Phenomenal.
    Na h-Eileanan Siar has 86.7% double jabbed.

    It is incredibly rural.

    Cases are low but have been going up for a while.

    Urban areas with far far lower vaccination rates are a million miles from herd immunity.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    Additionally. They've been on permanent Winter levels for 16 months now. Every passing day the staff get more and more burnt out.
    I reckon we are at crisis point. In the original sense of the word.
    Either it will all be OK, or it will go tits up soonish.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    Under no circumstances should we lock down again to protect antivaxxers.

    Open up the Nightingales and throw them in there. If they make it, they make it.
    Ronnie Cox
    image
    Ronny Cox plays a great villain.

    Ronny Cox as Senator Robert Kinsey : Given the chance, half of all American citizens won't even vote and the half that do vote are too stupid to know what they're doing.

    Colonel Jack O'Neill : Which explains how you got elected.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    R is 10???
    rcs made that claim today, with some authority

    Yes, R10 in unvaxxed communities, which is frankly horrifying

    It makes it one of the most infectious diseases humanity has ever encountered
    Imperial back in June:

    The team estimate that the current level of transmission, the effective reproduction number (R), is approximately 0.8 for the Alpha variant and 1.5 for the Delta variant in England

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/223853/delta-variant-could-cause-significant-third/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    R is 10???
    rcs made that claim today, with some authority

    Yes, R10 in unvaxxed communities, which is frankly horrifying

    It makes it one of the most infectious diseases humanity has ever encountered
    I'd like to see the reference for that!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    R is 10???
    rcs made that claim today, with some authority

    Yes, R10 in unvaxxed communities, which is frankly horrifying

    It makes it one of the most infectious diseases humanity has ever encountered
    Imperial back in June:

    The team estimate that the current level of transmission, the effective reproduction number (R), is approximately 0.8 for the Alpha variant and 1.5 for the Delta variant in England

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/223853/delta-variant-could-cause-significant-third/
    1.29 on Bristol Oliver's latest chart (although that is all variants, but delta is most of that clearly).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,790
    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What I don't get about these conversations is why Boris would open his heart so honestly to Cummings, when Cummings among others says how untrustworthy Boris is, and when Cummings had so little respect for Boris that it's hard to believe Boris did not notice, so why open up to him like that?

    I mean, I can believe that Boris says many of these things, but the way Dom presents them along with his other opinions just don't seem to add up for me.
    Had Boris ever watched jaws? The mayor was a clueless greed driven prat.
    But the mayor was still in office at the time of the sequel.

    I'm sure BoJo draws inspiration from this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    I don't think anything like that number will need ICU. There are 500 or so ventilated patients in England at present, with a similar number on CPAP etc. A considerable pressure on the system, but nowhere near your figure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    Britain has opted against mass Covid vaccinations for all children and teenagers, with ministers instead preparing to offer jabs to vulnerable 12 to 15-year-olds and those about to turn 18, The Telegraph can disclose.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/17/children-will-get-covid-vaccines-vulnerable/

    That booming noise you just heard was Pagel exploding! :smiley:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Today s been the kind of day when I'm so glad I live in the NE.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    In the UK about 1/6 of admissions are on ventilators, and probably a similar or larger number on CPAP or Hiflow. So if 5% of cases get admitted, around 1.5% could be considered critical. Sounds about right to me.
    If Delta (R10!!) rips through all the unvaxxed over the next 2 months, that small number - 1.5% - could feel awfully big. 1.5% of, say, 20 million people is 300,000 people critically ill in hospital

    Back of fag packet stuff, but it gives an impression of the potential grisliness


    Of course, we would be locking down again long before 300,000 end up in ICU
    Under no circumstances should we lock down again to protect antivaxxers.

    Open up the Nightingales and throw them in there. If they make it, they make it.
    Ronnie Cox
    image
    Ronny Cox plays a great villain.

    Ronny Cox as Senator Robert Kinsey : Given the chance, half of all American citizens won't even vote and the half that do vote are too stupid to know what they're doing.

    Colonel Jack O'Neill : Which explains how you got elected.
    I actually had YOU down as Cohaagen in Total Recall :lol:

    Technician : Sir, the oxygen level is bottoming out in Sector G. What do you want me to do about it?

    Vilos Cohaagen : [as if obvious] Don't do anything.

    Technician : But they won't last an hour, sir.

    Vilos Cohaagen : Fuck 'em. It'll be a good lesson to the others.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    Are you really trying to compare individual days now with a weekly average in a different period ?

    Really ???
    How is Kirklees working out for you?

    Edit: thr implication is that the Bol on current 7 day average is going to rise pas the May "peak".
    Kirklees has significantly fewer cases now than it did last autumn:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees

    Different places have different levels of cases and over different periods of time but its quite clear that nowhere goes exponential to infinity.
    Absolutely tremendous goalpost shifting.

    Just, Phenomenal.
    Look at the data and see the reality.

    You seem to be a bit bitter that things aren't bad enough.

    Strange. Very strange.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    Is it possible the emergence of the Delta variant might mean we might reach herd immunity more quickly?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    Are you really trying to compare individual days now with a weekly average in a different period ?

    Really ???
    How is Kirklees working out for you?

    Edit: thr implication is that the Bol on current 7 day average is going to rise pas the May "peak".
    Kirklees has significantly fewer cases now than it did last autumn:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees

    Different places have different levels of cases and over different periods of time but its quite clear that nowhere goes exponential to infinity.
    Absolutely tremendous goalpost shifting.

    Just, Phenomenal.
    Look at the data and see the reality.

    You seem to be a bit bitter that things aren't bad enough.

    Strange. Very strange.
    He seems desperate to prove that the Euros were anything other than a much needed bit of enjoyment for the nation and trade for businesses.

    I think he wants to join Pagel's team but doesn't bear to admit it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it possible the emergence of the Delta variant might mean we might reach herd immunity more quickly?

    Some people are giving the good old british try....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    How do you get to 300k critically ill in hospital ?

    That's 100x the current number in hospital which would require 100x the level of infection of a week ago ie several million per day.

    We'll run out of anti-vaxxers long before that is possible.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it possible the emergence of the Delta variant might mean we might reach herd immunity more quickly?

    Certainly possible which gives the benefit of lower covid infections this winter and potentially less risk from any new variants.

    I also suspect that Delta has encouraged some people to get vaccinated who otherwise would not have done so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    I don't think anything like that number will need ICU. There are 500 or so ventilated patients in England at present, with a similar number on CPAP etc. A considerable pressure on the system, but nowhere near your figure.
    But that is the number you reach if you crunch the data

    If Delta is infectious to the level of R10 (making it one of the most infectious diseases mankind has encountered), that means it will rip through all the unvaxed and partly vaxed very fast, which means 20 million cases, which means - theoretically - 1.5% of 20m in ICU = 300,000

    Of course, however, we will never get anywhere near that figure, because 1. humans will react voluntarily and reduce contacts, 2. the government will reimpose lockdowns and 3. the virus will simply run out of hosts

    I have already said all this below

    My point is that Delta is so nasty we are looking at more lockdowns. Probably. I hope to God I am wrong and the Big Boris Gamble pays off
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    I don't think anything like that number will need ICU. There are 500 or so ventilated patients in England at present, with a similar number on CPAP etc. A considerable pressure on the system, but nowhere near your figure.
    But that is the number you reach if you crunch the data

    If Delta is infectious to the level of R10 (making it one of the most infectious diseases mankind has encountered), that means it will rip through all the unvaxed and partly vaxed very fast, which means 20 million cases, which means - theoretically - 1.5% of 20m in ICU = 300,000

    Of course, however, we will never get anywhere near that figure, because 1. humans will react voluntarily and reduce contacts, 2. the government will reimpose lockdowns and 3. the virus will simply run out of hosts

    I have already said all this below

    My point is that Delta is so nasty we are looking at more lockdowns. Probably. I hope to God I am wrong and the Big Boris Gamble pays off
    You're also missing the fact that Delta is not R10.

    And that nowhere in this country has had the exponential growth to infinity that your 'reasoning' would require.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Mail reporting 5 000 broke into Wembley without tickets last week.
    Which, if it were any other country, they would be utterly outraged.
    However, it won't affect our World Cup bid they conclude.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    Not so fast Comrade - you might be on the list!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    I don't think anything like that number will need ICU. There are 500 or so ventilated patients in England at present, with a similar number on CPAP etc. A considerable pressure on the system, but nowhere near your figure.
    But that is the number you reach if you crunch the data

    If Delta is infectious to the level of R10 (making it one of the most infectious diseases mankind has encountered), that means it will rip through all the unvaxed and partly vaxed very fast, which means 20 million cases, which means - theoretically - 1.5% of 20m in ICU = 300,000

    Of course, however, we will never get anywhere near that figure, because 1. humans will react voluntarily and reduce contacts, 2. the government will reimpose lockdowns and 3. the virus will simply run out of hosts

    I have already said all this below

    My point is that Delta is so nasty we are looking at more lockdowns. Probably. I hope to God I am wrong and the Big Boris Gamble pays off
    You're also missing the fact that Delta is not R10.

    And that nowhere in this country has had the exponential growth to infinity that your 'reasoning' would require.
    Rob Smithson made that claim - R10 - and then doubled down. Someone else posted a BBC article which said Delta could be R8. So it is not so outlandish

    The speed at which Delta takes over does imply it is fiendishly contagious

    See here. You can catch it in 5-10 seconds, by simply passing someone in a shopping mall

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines


    "The calls for caution come at a time when research in Australia indicates just how easily the Delta variant can potentially spread. Based on CCTV footage, health officials suspect it has been transmitted in “scarily fleeting” encounters of roughly five to 10 seconds between people walking past each other in an indoor shopping area in Sydney in at least two instances."
  • Not so fast Comrade - you might be on the list!
    The far left already disowned me
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    pigeon said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't think the backbenches would allow another lockdown, let alone cycles of them, given the low death rates we're experiencing.

    Doesn't matter. Deaths aren't the key metric, it's the hospital numbers, about which the Government can and will panic if they continue to climb for long enough. And besides, even in the unlikely event of a Tory rebellion large enough to cancel the Government's majority, Labour will vote for any kind of lockdown measures that are proposed.
    If there were a serious prospect of another genuine lockdown, I wonder if some of the 'lockdown sceptics' crowd might flip to a more authoritarian view on vaccinations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    New York state reports 1,421 new coronavirus cases, up 95% from last week and the biggest one-day increase since May
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    dixiedean said:

    Mail reporting 5 000 broke into Wembley without tickets last week.
    Which, if it were any other country, they would be utterly outraged.
    However, it won't affect our World Cup bid they conclude.

    Well it probably won't affect the Ireland/Scotland/Wales part of the bid
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    You're engaging in a little bit of strawman-ism here.

    Once we learned that the R of Delta was 10, it was always going to rip through unvaccinated communities.

    While it's pretty horrible for those people affected, there is clearly a natural limit to how bad it can be. Now, would it be better for people to get their immune systems primed via vaccinations? Yes! And I don't know why the UK government has not followed the US, France and others in allow those aged 12 and older to get vaccinated.

    But ultimately, this wave of Covid is not causing the levels of hospitalisation that previous waves did. Indeed, the hospitalisation-to-case ratio continues to improve as more people get vaccinated and the average age of the unvaccinated community drops.

    Every day there are fewer unprotected people.

    Now, we could keep restrictions in place for longer. But given schools (see Scotland) seem to be the biggest vector of transmission, and are breaking up, why would you bother?
    Is Delta really R10??

    I thought it was R6

    R10 must make it one of the most infectious diseases ever?
    Some of the 10 unvaccinated who are infected by an average carrier if that figure is correct won't get a disease from their infection, i.e. they will be asymptomatic.

    Chickenpox and mumps have R~10; measles has R~15.

    One scary thing is that original SARS, of which SARSCoV2 is a collection of variants, has R~3. So mutation has more than trebled R (on numerous assumptions ofc). That is not comparing apples with oranges, because no effective vaccine against original SARS was ever developed and therefore the figure R~3 for SARS is necessarily for its spread among the unvaccinated.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,247
    Leon said:


    Rob Smithson made that claim - R10 - and then doubled down. Someone else posted a BBC article which said Delta could be R8. So it is not so outlandish

    The speed at which Delta takes over does imply it is fiendishly contagious

    See here. You can catch it in 5-10 seconds, by simply passing someone in a shopping mall

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines


    "The calls for caution come at a time when research in Australia indicates just how easily the Delta variant can potentially spread. Based on CCTV footage, health officials suspect it has been transmitted in “scarily fleeting” encounters of roughly five to 10 seconds between people walking past each other in an indoor shopping area in Sydney in at least two instances."

    And others suggest Delta could be R6 or R7.

    As to infection in five seconds 'can' does not equate to 'will' - there will be a vast range of possible infection times depending on the people and locations involved.

    But the key fact is that if you think Delta could infect at such high rates nationally why hasn't it been infecting at such high rates locally ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited July 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Mail reporting 5 000 broke into Wembley without tickets last week.
    Which, if it were any other country, they would be utterly outraged.
    However, it won't affect our World Cup bid they conclude.

    The government really should have ordered a full investigation by now. Clearly a failure of planning, a failure of intelligence and it appears corruption.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    With Spain not reporting over the weekend, their figure for Monday will be a shocker.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Could be the difference in dosing gaps tbf, maybe this is why the JCVI are unwilling to shorten from 8 weeks to 4 weeks.
    Very well said. Would explain that.

    I'm not sure why people would get breathless about data out of Israel now. There is clearly much, much, much more data out of the UK than there is from Israel - both because there's been many more Delta cases here proportionately, but also because the UK is much bigger than Israel too.

    Israel's data is interesting but its no longer the tell all that it used to be. The JCVI ought to have much more accurate data.
    Israel were the fastest to do vaccination, and they've used exclusively Pfizer. So, if there is a weakening of the protection from Pfizer, Israel is where you will see evidence of that earliest and most clearly. They're a canary in the Pfizer coalmine. Of course people would be interested in it. Will take longer to see the same in the UK.

    Though the point about dosing intervals does complicate matters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Personally speaking I've had a great day today. Been at the beach, had a big family reunion, saw some relatives I'd not seen in two years. People that I had seen just after Stage 3 were much more relaxed today than they were a couple of months ago. Last time I saw her my nan was clear she didn't want a hug, despite being fully vaccinated. Today she hugged everyone.

    Life is for living. Its good to see people get over their fears.

    We’ve been for lunch in Newcastle the took the in-laws for a run up,to Blyth. Aside from masks indoors People are just getting on and living their lives.

    The weather was glorious.

    It is good to see. It is not wishing it away. It is learning to accommodate it.
    How do you "accommodate" 300,000 critically ill people in hospital?

    This has always been the scary thing about Covid. Not the deaths - sad as they are - it now has a CFR of 0.1-0.2%. No worse than seasonal flu

    The menacing factor is the many people it puts in hospital and the potential for a health system failure, and then suddenly the CFR can rocket to 5%
    I don't think anything like that number will need ICU. There are 500 or so ventilated patients in England at present, with a similar number on CPAP etc. A considerable pressure on the system, but nowhere near your figure.
    But that is the number you reach if you crunch the data

    If Delta is infectious to the level of R10 (making it one of the most infectious diseases mankind has encountered), that means it will rip through all the unvaxed and partly vaxed very fast, which means 20 million cases, which means - theoretically - 1.5% of 20m in ICU = 300,000

    Of course, however, we will never get anywhere near that figure, because 1. humans will react voluntarily and reduce contacts, 2. the government will reimpose lockdowns and 3. the virus will simply run out of hosts

    I have already said all this below

    My point is that Delta is so nasty we are looking at more lockdowns. Probably. I hope to God I am wrong and the Big Boris Gamble pays off
    You're also missing the fact that Delta is not R10.

    And that nowhere in this country has had the exponential growth to infinity that your 'reasoning' would require.
    Rob Smithson made that claim - R10 - and then doubled down. Someone else posted a BBC article which said Delta could be R8. So it is not so outlandish

    The speed at which Delta takes over does imply it is fiendishly contagious

    See here. You can catch it in 5-10 seconds, by simply passing someone in a shopping mall

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines


    "The calls for caution come at a time when research in Australia indicates just how easily the Delta variant can potentially spread. Based on CCTV footage, health officials suspect it has been transmitted in “scarily fleeting” encounters of roughly five to 10 seconds between people walking past each other in an indoor shopping area in Sydney in at least two instances."
    Imperial back in June:

    "The team estimate that the current level of transmission, the effective reproduction number (R), is approximately 0.8 for the Alpha variant and 1.5 for the Delta variant in England"


    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/223853/delta-variant-could-cause-significant-third/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243
    He's certainly been bolder on such issues, and the ongoing Corbyn situation too, than I would ave expected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,243
    dixiedean said:

    Mail reporting 5 000 broke into Wembley without tickets last week.
    Which, if it were any other country, they would be utterly outraged.
    However, it won't affect our World Cup bid they conclude.

    It probably won't. It might be used a pretext though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    edited July 2021
    Gnud said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    You're engaging in a little bit of strawman-ism here.

    Once we learned that the R of Delta was 10, it was always going to rip through unvaccinated communities.

    While it's pretty horrible for those people affected, there is clearly a natural limit to how bad it can be. Now, would it be better for people to get their immune systems primed via vaccinations? Yes! And I don't know why the UK government has not followed the US, France and others in allow those aged 12 and older to get vaccinated.

    But ultimately, this wave of Covid is not causing the levels of hospitalisation that previous waves did. Indeed, the hospitalisation-to-case ratio continues to improve as more people get vaccinated and the average age of the unvaccinated community drops.

    Every day there are fewer unprotected people.

    Now, we could keep restrictions in place for longer. But given schools (see Scotland) seem to be the biggest vector of transmission, and are breaking up, why would you bother?
    Is Delta really R10??

    I thought it was R6

    R10 must make it one of the most infectious diseases ever?
    Some of the 10 unvaccinated who are infected by an average carrier if that figure is correct won't get a disease from their infection, i.e. they will be asymptomatic.

    Chickenpox and mumps have R~10; measles has R~15.

    One scary thing is that original SARS, of which SARSCoV2 is a collection of variants, has R~3. So mutation has more than trebled R (on numerous assumptions ofc). That is not comparing apples with oranges, because no effective vaccine against original SARS was ever developed and therefore the figure R~3 for SARS is necessarily for its spread among the unvaccinated.
    Relatedly:


    "2/ The problem is that the Delta variant is 225% more transmissible than the original COVID virus, which means that weekly rates of case increases could continue to rise, driving caseloads and fatalities higher."

    If *original* SARSCov2 is R3, then multiply that by 225% and you're getting close to R10

    https://twitter.com/AfricaACSS/status/1415337767446278148?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Bad and good news from Israel

    "The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling."


    but


    "The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday."

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084

    Somebody is wrong here.....the uk government scientists say 2 doses is basically same as versus Kent variant, Israel as saying its worse.

    Now, the first data that came out from Israel was very small sample size, now there are building data.

    The whole uk strategy is predicated on the vaccines been as good, if they aren't....tellytubbies say uh oh
    ..
    Could be the difference in dosing gaps tbf, maybe this is why the JCVI are unwilling to shorten from 8 weeks to 4 weeks.
    Very well said. Would explain that.

    I'm not sure why people would get breathless about data out of Israel now. There is clearly much, much, much more data out of the UK than there is from Israel - both because there's been many more Delta cases here proportionately, but also because the UK is much bigger than Israel too.

    Israel's data is interesting but its no longer the tell all that it used to be. The JCVI ought to have much more accurate data.
    Israel were the fastest to do vaccination, and they've used exclusively Pfizer. So, if there is a weakening of the protection from Pfizer, Israel is where you will see evidence of that earliest and most clearly. They're a canary in the Pfizer coalmine. Of course people would be interested in it. Will take longer to see the same in the UK.

    Though the point about dosing intervals does complicate matters.
    The UK might also get lucky in this respect in that 6 weeks booster jab roll out starts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    Leon said:

    Gnud said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Bolton now has 2 days of cases above their May 7-day average peak.

    The mathematically impossible has happened!

    Eh?

    Who claimed it was mathematically impossible for cases to be above May peaks?

    Delta is highly transmissable. Schools are (or were) operating normally. And children are unvaccinated.

    The question is what happens next, now that schools break up, the weather has improved and the Euros are behind us.
    That fact that Bolton peaked in May was used as extremely confident evidence that Delta had burned out fast.

    It had ripped through the remaining unvaccinated and that was it done. With increasing vaccination numbers there was no new people to infect and it was over. Delta had flared briefly and was gone with only faint echoes in the surrounding counties.

    Cases 100% deffo peaked at less than 10k.
    You're engaging in a little bit of strawman-ism here.

    Once we learned that the R of Delta was 10, it was always going to rip through unvaccinated communities.

    While it's pretty horrible for those people affected, there is clearly a natural limit to how bad it can be. Now, would it be better for people to get their immune systems primed via vaccinations? Yes! And I don't know why the UK government has not followed the US, France and others in allow those aged 12 and older to get vaccinated.

    But ultimately, this wave of Covid is not causing the levels of hospitalisation that previous waves did. Indeed, the hospitalisation-to-case ratio continues to improve as more people get vaccinated and the average age of the unvaccinated community drops.

    Every day there are fewer unprotected people.

    Now, we could keep restrictions in place for longer. But given schools (see Scotland) seem to be the biggest vector of transmission, and are breaking up, why would you bother?
    Is Delta really R10??

    I thought it was R6

    R10 must make it one of the most infectious diseases ever?
    Some of the 10 unvaccinated who are infected by an average carrier if that figure is correct won't get a disease from their infection, i.e. they will be asymptomatic.

    Chickenpox and mumps have R~10; measles has R~15.

    One scary thing is that original SARS, of which SARSCoV2 is a collection of variants, has R~3. So mutation has more than trebled R (on numerous assumptions ofc). That is not comparing apples with oranges, because no effective vaccine against original SARS was ever developed and therefore the figure R~3 for SARS is necessarily for its spread among the unvaccinated.
    Relatedly:


    "2/ The problem is that the Delta variant is 225% more transmissible than the original COVID virus, which means that weekly rates of case increases could continue to rise, driving caseloads and fatalities higher."

    If *original* SARSCov2 is R3, then multiply that by 225% and you're getting close to R10

    https://twitter.com/AfricaACSS/status/1415337767446278148?s=20
    Remember, though, R is measured relative to a "virgin" population. We don't have that anymore.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    dixiedean said:

    Mail reporting 5 000 broke into Wembley without tickets last week.
    Which, if it were any other country, they would be utterly outraged.
    However, it won't affect our World Cup bid they conclude.

    The government really should have ordered a full investigation by now. Clearly a failure of planning, a failure of intelligence and it appears corruption.
    Indeed. It's a proper scandal which got somewhat lost. What if it had been a complete sell out of a full stadium?
    Most likely there would have been dangerous overcrowding, or a potential riot from locked out ticketed fans. And the game may not have gone ahead.
    Most importantly lessons need to be learned, so that the new season can go ahead in less than a month.
    Thus far the message seems to be, you can break into a ground without a ticket with a miniscule chance of being caught.
    Where is the Home Secretary on this?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    Astonishing figures regarding South Africa.

    "In a sense this had been coming for a long time. When the ANC was first elected in 1994 its posters promised “Jobs, jobs, jobs!” but paid little heed to that once they were elected. In 1995 the average number of unemployed, according to official figures, was 1,698,000 or, if one took the expanded definition of unemployment, including those who had given up looking for a job, the figure was 3,321,000. With only a few exceptional periods to the contrary, that figure has grown steadily and hugely to surpass 11.4 million today. Since the unemployed have little or no income, this has also meant a huge growth in both poverty and inequality. The ANC has routinely deplored poverty and inequality but it has generally tried to pretend that this is part of the “apartheid inheritance.” As the figures show, this is the opposite of the truth."

    https://quillette.com/2021/07/16/why-violence-and-looting-has-exploded-across-south-africa/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,944
    edited July 2021
    Starmer is making all the right moves at the moment and Labour probably deserves to go up in the polls a bit. Whether they will is another matter.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    Leon said:


    Rob Smithson made that claim - R10 - and then doubled down. Someone else posted a BBC article which said Delta could be R8. So it is not so outlandish

    The speed at which Delta takes over does imply it is fiendishly contagious

    See here. You can catch it in 5-10 seconds, by simply passing someone in a shopping mall

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines


    "The calls for caution come at a time when research in Australia indicates just how easily the Delta variant can potentially spread. Based on CCTV footage, health officials suspect it has been transmitted in “scarily fleeting” encounters of roughly five to 10 seconds between people walking past each other in an indoor shopping area in Sydney in at least two instances."

    And others suggest Delta could be R6 or R7.

    As to infection in five seconds 'can' does not equate to 'will' - there will be a vast range of possible infection times depending on the people and locations involved.

    But the key fact is that if you think Delta could infect at such high rates nationally why hasn't it been infecting at such high rates locally ?
    Because lots of people have either already had covid or have been vaccinated.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing figures regarding South Africa.

    "In a sense this had been coming for a long time. When the ANC was first elected in 1994 its posters promised “Jobs, jobs, jobs!” but paid little heed to that once they were elected. In 1995 the average number of unemployed, according to official figures, was 1,698,000 or, if one took the expanded definition of unemployment, including those who had given up looking for a job, the figure was 3,321,000. With only a few exceptional periods to the contrary, that figure has grown steadily and hugely to surpass 11.4 million today. Since the unemployed have little or no income, this has also meant a huge growth in both poverty and inequality. The ANC has routinely deplored poverty and inequality but it has generally tried to pretend that this is part of the “apartheid inheritance.” As the figures show, this is the opposite of the truth."

    https://quillette.com/2021/07/16/why-violence-and-looting-has-exploded-across-south-africa/

    It is somewhat remarkable that the ANC coalition, comprising Stalinists, Social Democrats and Liberals, and a lot in between has held together for 27 years after democracy.
    Members of the governing Party hold diametrically opposing views, yet can't call out fellow heroes of the liberation struggle.
    So, it will end in tears. And the ANC will break into 3 or 4 Parties like a "normal" democracy. Which they ought to have done after Mandela.
    Or it will go tits up back into autocracy, with one faction seizing control and persecuting the rest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    Is that a random year? Or the one the RedWall Brexiteers want to take the country back to?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    You need to keep up. It is not so difficult to imagine that voters prepared to vote for and elect a BNP councillor would now be attracted by Johnson's populism - particularly the neo-racist messaging.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    You need to keep up. It is not so difficult to imagine that voters prepared to vote for and elect a BNP councillor would now be attracted by Johnson's populism - particularly the neo-racist messaging.
    Labour have held seats who previously had BNP councillors....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    You need to keep up. It is not so difficult to imagine that voters prepared to vote for and elect a BNP councillor would now be attracted by Johnson's populism - particularly the neo-racist messaging.
    Labour have held seats who previously had BNP councillors....
    Indeed - and had there been a BNP candidate polling several hundred votes , that might well have happened last Thursday in Sandwell.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476
    edited July 2021
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    You need to keep up. It is not so difficult to imagine that voters prepared to vote for and elect a BNP councillor would now be attracted by Johnson's populism - particularly the neo-racist messaging.
    You could accept Mr Urquart's challenge and go older, same area, and Peter Griffith's scandalous Conservative victory in Smethwick at the 1964 GE.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer is making all the right moves at the moment and Labour probably deserves to go up in the polls a bit. Whether they will is another matter.
    This is the sort of move which doesn't necessarily benefit Labour in the short-term, because it reminds the voters of what a mess they currently are - but I suppose the argument is that it's a necessary precondition for recovery in the long term.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited July 2021
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    You need to keep up. It is not so difficult to imagine that voters prepared to vote for and elect a BNP councillor would now be attracted by Johnson's populism - particularly the neo-racist messaging.
    Labour have held seats who previously had BNP councillors....
    Indeed - and had there been a BNP candidate polling several hundred votes , that might well have happened last Thursday in Sandwell.
    You know constituency demographics change right? Sandwell is a bit different to 15 years ago, with a sizable non-white population....lots of British Indians.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    And now he relies on the white working class voters who elected a BNP councillor in Sandwell in 2006 to achieve Tory electoral success in the same ward there.
    Bit current for you, surely in 1879 the Tories did something far worse in a council by election.
    You need to keep up. It is not so difficult to imagine that voters prepared to vote for and elect a BNP councillor would now be attracted by Johnson's populism - particularly the neo-racist messaging.
    Labour have held seats who previously had BNP councillors....
    Indeed - and had there been a BNP candidate polling several hundred votes , that might well have happened last Thursday in Sandwell.
    You know constituency demographics change right? Sandwell is a bit different to 15 years ago, with a sizable non-white population....lots of British Indians.
    The effect of which could well boost the potential white working class BNP/ populist Tory vote.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    Yup they're governing brilliantly
    Yep. 😀
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer is making all the right moves at the moment and Labour probably deserves to go up in the polls a bit. Whether they will is another matter.
    If Labour don’t go up in the polls after the latest purge then maybe the Corbynistas were on to something that party issues went beyond Jezza and have been festering since the Blair years. It feels too simplistic that the solution for Labour to win back the red wall is just to turf out the left of the party.

    When you have the likes of Angela Rayner front left and centre I struggle to see the red wall returning in their droves. That of course isn’t Keir’s fault but the Labour members who selected her. I maintain he needs a much stronger front bench to edge towards parity in the polls. He’d kill for a Raab or a Javid let alone a Sunak.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,421
    kinabalu said:

    Did anyone ever win that Dura Ace competition for 1st Covid celeb casualty?

    Not me - the Queen lives - but I can't recall if anybody claimed it.

    No. @Paristonda got close with Johnson but the trophy (broken BMW piston) remains unclaimed on my desk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    Every adult in the UK has been offered a Covid vaccine ahead of restrictions easing in England on Monday, the government says.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Brom said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer is making all the right moves at the moment and Labour probably deserves to go up in the polls a bit. Whether they will is another matter.
    If Labour don’t go up in the polls after the latest purge then maybe the Corbynistas were on to something that party issues went beyond Jezza and have been festering since the Blair years. It feels too simplistic that the solution for Labour to win back the red wall is just to turf out the left of the party.

    When you have the likes of Angela Rayner front left and centre I struggle to see the red wall returning in their droves. That of course isn’t Keir’s fault but the Labour members who selected her. I maintain he needs a much stronger front bench to edge towards parity in the polls. He’d kill for a Raab or a Javid let alone a Sunak.
    Very few voters notice such things. The return of normal party politics post-Covid will be far more important.
  • The country needs a good opposition, so even though I don't want Starmer to win, I hope you're right and this is a good and significant move.

    But I won't be holding my breath. How many MPs who currently hold the whip will lose it? Will Burgon? Rebecca Long Bailey? Diane Abbott? Ian Lavery? John McDonnell? Kate Osamor? Zarah Sultana? Claudia Webbe? Etc

    If so then it will be a real and significant purge of the far left. Otherwise if its just a lot of people nobody has ever heard of from Twitter while the big names get left behind then its a meaningless gesture.
    Taking a leaf out of Johnson's playbook. Johnson of course, also ejected the far left from his party, before a magnificent victory at the next GE.
    Absolutely. Johnson expelling the troublemakers from his party ensured the party was fit to win the victory and also ensured he was capable of governing following the victory, since many of them would have been a permanent 'gaukeward squad' had they been left to wallow on the backbenches.
    Yup they're governing brilliantly
    Yep. 😀
    You can't genuinely in good conscience believe they're governing well. You can rightfully - if incorrectly in my view - think Labour would do worse but you have to be insane to think they're governing well.

    Johnson's speech with nothing in it sums up this government for me. No vision, no ideology, out of ideas.
This discussion has been closed.