Suddenly pinging it becomes the main COVID story – politicalbetting.com

TOPPING said:

Aslan said:

TOPPING said:

Aslan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Express has excelled itself:

https://twitter.com/DarrenGuy/status/1415962187953319939

Stupidity from the Express, but the whole issue is a nonsense. Either the farms can pay more, in which case that is higher wages for people, or they can't, in which case it is low productivity work dragging down our GDP per worker numbers and we don't need it.

They can't pay more because their margins are cut to the bone usually supplying the supermarkets which cut the farm gate prices to the bone to give you and me cheap food.

And if the supermarkets realise they can't get the food for that price because their suppliers go out of business, they will have to start paying more.

Maybe we'll have to see. I am all in favour of such market mechanisms although it might be a bit bloody.

In general it has been accepted that low prices for consumers has been more important than increased profitability for farmers. They (the supermarkets) of course have enormous pricing power and it is likely that only huge scale farms will be able to provide produce at the prices demanded.

Ask @Rochdale.

Well you only have to look at the current HGV crisis to see that the short term approach will be to encourage anything and everything short of outright fraud to keep costs as low as possible.

The HGV crisis is in a large part the result of them trying to keep those costs as low as possible..

IshmaelZ said:

https://twitter.com/beaudonnet/status/1415945761292959744

Extraordinary picture of Erfstadt earth slip.

Feck.
I only really know Berlin but my first impression flying in years ago was just how 'watery' it is. Apparently it's built on a very high water table and the drainage/pipe system (quite visible in places) necessary to keep it under control is supposedly a marvel. I wonder how much that applies to other parts of Germany?

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlwaysSinging said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlwaysSinging said:

rkrkrk said:

Alistair said:

There are quite a lot of posts from around June 14th that have aged abysmally when it comes to calling peak Covid and what the cases/hospital numbers can or cannot possibly do.

All spoken with the confidence of Vince Cable predicting the next recession.

Indeed. I tried to snag someone on here into a bet that there would be no significant rise in hospitalizations in June but alas couldn't agree terms. Looking back I was too timid predicting a 4x growth in hospitalizations from the trough...

Indeed. It's a terrible weakness not to accept uncertainty. If there's one thing the much-derided models show is that, from here, it could go either way. Far too many posters can't accept that, perhaps because it's more comfortable to fantasize a future and assume it to be certain.

I remember itching to challenge certain people to a bet last autumn, but in the end I realized that I didn't want to wager on humans dying.

--AS

No the criticism is that the uncertainty levels that many of these models have spat out are ridiculous. The "firebreak for two weeks one" a particular example. They predicted somewhere between 600 and 106k lives SAVED in 3 months following a 2 week firebreak.

Firstly that confidence interval is just ludicrous to be useful in practice and at the high end 106k hadn't died over the course a 6 months, in fact 12 months. The thought 2 weeks lockdown could SAVE in that order of magnitude of lives over the course of the proceeding12 weeks is just not credible.

I agree that the particular model output you cite was useless. The more recent SPI-M outputs have actually been quite reasonable (i.e. not stupidly wide), and can pin down the key variables that most affect the range of outcomes.

Also beware that the "credible interval" that modelers like to cite is not a confidence interval. It's not even a prediction interval. This is an area in which the modelers' statistical theory is lacking.

--AS

There is a technical issue in regards to these models that I take issue with in regards to "confidence"....but it is way behind the scope of this forum.

I'd be happy to discuss it sometime. There don't seem to be many people who actually understand the foundation of probability and statistics wanting to talk models. Today, though, I have to set some exam questions, ugh...

--AS

NickPalmer said:

Pagan2 said:

In other news any remainers care to commment?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/15/european-ruling-headscarves-discrimination-humanists-religious-identity

Here we have the ECJ overriding national law despite it not being an eu competency.

We also have something for all those liberal types that don't think headscarves should be banned but tend euphile

As with a marriage, it's possible to be keen on a partner without agreeing with everything they say and do. I'm fine with headscarves and think the court is wrong. Doesn't make me less Europhile.

Well now we are out thankfully we can ignore it if we wish

noneoftheabove said:

rottenborough said:

contrarian said:

rottenborough said:

“If Boris Johnson’s Government falls,” one Tory MP tells me, “it will be due to this.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/15/britains-ticking-debt-bomb-now-governments-greatest-threat/

It won;t just be Johnson's government.

These tory MPs are Johnson's enablers. Johnson sits at their pleasure.

Do they really think tory voters will simply blame Johnson if they let him bankrupt Britain? Do think really think they will simply forgive and forget if there's a new leader?

Think again, children.

I have thought for a while that Starmer's odds on becoming next PM are too long because the shit could truly hit the fan economically pretty quickly for the Tories.

That is not good for Starmer being next PM! It would mean a Tory replacing Bozo.

The problem for Starmer being next PM betting is the Tories have to think Boris will win, but Labour actually end up winning, overturning an 80 seat majority, and Starmer has to stay leader all that time.

Yes, it's a conditional double bet.

Johnson and Starmer lead their respective parties into the GE = 75%. The above having happened, Lab do well enough in the GE to make Starmer PM = 33%. Compound chance of 25%. So 'Starmer Next PM' fair price = 3/1.

That's approx how I price this atm. So (for me) still a back not a lay at the current exchange of 5.5. I'm long at 8 so that's smug city. Will probably lay back if and when it hits 4.

But what is decidedly NOT smug city is my Trump short at over 6 for the GOP nom. The ghastly man is 3.8 now. God help us if the market has this right. I think otherwise but can't say I'm super certain.

NickPalmer said:

Pagan2 said:

In other news any remainers care to commment?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/15/european-ruling-headscarves-discrimination-humanists-religious-identity

Here we have the ECJ overriding national law despite it not being an eu competency.

We also have something for all those liberal types that don't think headscarves should be banned but tend euphile

As with a marriage, it's possible to be keen on a partner without agreeing with everything they say and do. I'm fine with headscarves and think the court is wrong. Doesn't make me less Europhile.

I occasionally see a young woman going into the village college as I walk the little 'un into school. She wears a headscarf, and smiles as she zooms along on her rollerblades.

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

contrarian said:

rottenborough said:

“If Boris Johnson’s Government falls,” one Tory MP tells me, “it will be due to this.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/15/britains-ticking-debt-bomb-now-governments-greatest-threat/

It won;t just be Johnson's government.

These tory MPs are Johnson's enablers. Johnson sits at their pleasure.

Do they really think tory voters will simply blame Johnson if they let him bankrupt Britain? Do think really think they will simply forgive and forget if there's a new leader?

Think again, children.

I have thought for a while that Starmer's odds on becoming next PM are too long because the shit could truly hit the fan economically pretty quickly for the Tories.

Though in that case, Johnson will either be pushed or run away crying like Billy Bunter did when he was caught out. Yarooh and all that.

Then Sunak takes over, is fiscally orthodox and loses the next election because the public wants cake, dammit, and they only voted for Boris because he promised them cake.

The distinction to make is between Starmer as a future PM (more likely than some think) and as the next PM (I just don't see how the choreography works).

You presume the Tories will revert to old style Tories. Sunak has been happy to hose around money, he could easily follow the US stated approach which is don't worry, keep borrowing, we will sort this out in 10-15 years time.

The US has the dollar.

I am not saying it is a good idea, just saying the presumption the Tories revert to being traditional small state Tories, when their sales pitch continuously seems to be much more New Labour (in fact on some things Corbyn Labour). Who would have thought they would casually renationalize the railways.

ping said:

dixiedean said:

Eldest has job contract deep cleaning Halls of Residence. Have gone for UK students on youth minimum wage. Was meant to be team of 10. 4 recruited. 3 have quit after 3 weeks. The supervisor has walked as no time for training whatsoever was given. And no new recruits appeared as repeatedly promised. He told them before they started they needed to pay much, much more. At least they have been paid.
They are trying to get an "international" team in now.
Meanwhile Halls remain mostly uncleaned.

Lol

Good on your son. He should be able to negotiate himself a decent payrise id have thought?!

Calling in the professionals is gonna cost the uni a load more, so he should have wiggle room.

He is attempting to do just that. Trying to get installed as supervisor.
Ironically. His motivation in taking the job was to have some of the student experience (living in halls, eating in the cafes, drinking in the bars, etc., etc.) that was robbed by the virus. Despite the low pay.

Philip_Thompson said:

moonshine said:

I have a private bet standing that the Uk will not enter a new lockdown, as defined by pubs and restaurants closing inside again. What are my chances do you think?

The UK? I don't know. Nicola might do that.

England? Excellent. Not a snowball's chance in hell of that happening again.

Anabobazina said:

moonshine said:

I have a private bet standing that the Uk will not enter a new lockdown, as defined by pubs and restaurants closing inside again. What are my chances do you think?

I agree actually. Once all adults are double vaxxed (soon) there is simply no moral justification for it. So yes, I would be on your side of the wager.

Excellent thanks, that’s what I figured. When it’s no longer novel to our immune systems, there’s no longer a health emergency.

Bet is steak and red wine in a restaurant of the winners choice. Which makes it an even more silly bet because if I lose the winner can’t even collect for a while!

Pagan2 said:

DougSeal said:

Pagan2 said:

In other news any remainers care to commment?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/15/european-ruling-headscarves-discrimination-humanists-religious-identity

Here we have the ECJ overriding national law despite it not being an eu competency.

We also have something for all those liberal types that don't think headscarves should be banned but tend euphile

Yes it is. Religious discrimination is covered by Council Directive 2000/78/EC of 27 November 2000 establishing a general framework for equal treatment in employment and occupation. We introduced it by way of regulation and now the Equality Act. I got an update about it this morning as the Tribunals here will take notice of it as a result.

In this case allowing the discrimination when our courts ruled the other way?

The CJEU determines the correct interpretation of EU law. Your characterisation of the judgment is completely wrong. It held that there is nothing in EU law that prevents employers having a policy prohibiting employees from wearing anything manifesting a religious belief in the workplace IF the policy represents a genuine need of an employer and we’re not formulated in such a way that would unfairly target only one religion. Nothing has been “banned”.

dixiedean said:

ping said:

dixiedean said:

Eldest has job contract deep cleaning Halls of Residence. Have gone for UK students on youth minimum wage. Was meant to be team of 10. 4 recruited. 3 have quit after 3 weeks. The supervisor has walked as no time for training whatsoever was given. And no new recruits appeared as repeatedly promised. He told them before they started they needed to pay much, much more. At least they have been paid.
They are trying to get an "international" team in now.
Meanwhile Halls remain mostly uncleaned.

Lol

Good on your son. He should be able to negotiate himself a decent payrise id have thought?!

Calling in the professionals is gonna cost the uni a load more, so he should have wiggle room.

He is attempting to do just that. Trying to get installed as supervisor.
Ironically. His motivation in taking the job was to have some of the student experience (living in halls, eating in the cafes, drinking in the bars, etc., etc.) that was robbed by the virus. Despite the low pay.

I hope he manages to get what he wants.

That is very sad to hear of those experiences foregone.

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

rkrkrk said:

Alistair said:

There are quite a lot of posts from around June 14th that have aged abysmally when it comes to calling peak Covid and what the cases/hospital numbers can or cannot possibly do.

All spoken with the confidence of Vince Cable predicting the next recession.

Indeed. I tried to snag someone on here into a bet that there would be no significant rise in hospitalizations in June but alas couldn't agree terms. Looking back I was too timid predicting a 4x growth in hospitalizations from the trough...

The virus is like Barry Gardiner. It keeps getting underestimated.

I think much of this is down to the (very understandable) desire of people to see the back of the wretched thing.

Agree. Never underestimate a Haileyburian.

Yes, I guess. And just to be clear I meant the desperation of people to see the back of the virus, not of Barry. He is underestimated for quite different reasons.

Philip_Thompson said:

contrarian said:

The graphic we should all be looking has nothing to do with Covid. It's Fraser Nelson's cheat sheet of the UK's gilt maturity profile

Holy f8ck. Its far more weighted to the front end than I realised and has a stack of maturity rollovers in coming few years.

If the DMO is refinancing those in a rising interest rate environment, URGH.

Only because Fraser Nelson has sort of misrepresented the maturity profile and you have misunderstood it.

The QE gilts are theoretically needing to be rolled over but the QE gilts are owned by the Bank of England. So it's a case of rolling over debts that are already owed to the UK. The Treasury doesn't pay any interest on these debts so realistically the BoE can just roll them over indefinitely with the Treasury never paying interest on these.

If you look at the gilts that matter, the ones we actually pay interest on, they have a mean fifteen year, median eleven year, maturity.

It's worth reading https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-04/u-k-treasury-reaps-13-billion-bonus-from-boe-bond-buying

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

A lockdown in the UK could infuriate people more. Much more.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1416020128291082245

A recent study shows Oxford/ AstraZeneca’s vaccine gives powerful protection and generates robust long-term immune system responses that may last a lifetime! As well as generating virus-busting antibodies, the vaccine also creates “training camps” in the body for for search-and-destroy T-cells (CD8+ T-cells) which can kill even new variants! What does this mean? It means your immune system can continue making these vital cells long after antibodies have waned- and possibly for the rest of your life! Researchers showed adenovirus vectors can target specific cells- known as stromal cells in tissues such as the lung - generating antigen 'depots' in these long-lived cells."

Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-00969-3

Sounds like what we all want is mix and match 3rd shot, with the other type of vaccine to the one we had.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

contrarian said:

The graphic we should all be looking has nothing to do with Covid. It's Fraser Nelson's cheat sheet of the UK's gilt maturity profile

Holy f8ck. Its far more weighted to the front end than I realised and has a stack of maturity rollovers in coming few years.

If the DMO is refinancing those in a rising interest rate environment, URGH.

Only because Fraser Nelson has sort of misrepresented the maturity profile and you have misunderstood it.

The QE gilts are theoretically needing to be rolled over but the QE gilts are owned by the Bank of England. So it's a case of rolling over debts that are already owed to the UK. The Treasury doesn't pay any interest on these debts so realistically the BoE can just roll them over indefinitely with the Treasury never paying interest on these.

If you look at the gilts that matter, the ones we actually pay interest on, they have a mean fifteen year, median eleven year, maturity.

It's worth reading https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-04/u-k-treasury-reaps-13-billion-bonus-from-boe-bond-buying

Indeed, that's matching what I was saying. The UK's gilts that the UK owns aren't really subject to any interest and are rather moot to the discussion. Nobody will officially admit it, because that's printing money, but its true.

The real gilts outstanding have an 11 to 15 year maturity depending upon if you look at median or mean.

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

And yet they lead the polls by a large amount.
I know.

noneoftheabove said:

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

rottenborough said:

contrarian said:

rottenborough said:

“If Boris Johnson’s Government falls,” one Tory MP tells me, “it will be due to this.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/15/britains-ticking-debt-bomb-now-governments-greatest-threat/

It won;t just be Johnson's government.

These tory MPs are Johnson's enablers. Johnson sits at their pleasure.

Do they really think tory voters will simply blame Johnson if they let him bankrupt Britain? Do think really think they will simply forgive and forget if there's a new leader?

Think again, children.

I have thought for a while that Starmer's odds on becoming next PM are too long because the shit could truly hit the fan economically pretty quickly for the Tories.

That is not good for Starmer being next PM! It would mean a Tory replacing Bozo.

The problem for Starmer being next PM betting is the Tories have to think Boris will win, but Labour actually end up winning, overturning an 80 seat majority, and Starmer has to stay leader all that time.

Yes, it's a conditional double bet.

Johnson and Starmer lead their respective parties into the GE = 75%. The above having happened, Lab do well enough in the GE to make Starmer PM = 33%. Compound chance of 25%. So 'Starmer Next PM' fair price = 3/1.

That's approx how I price this atm. So (for me) still a back not a lay at the current exchange of 5.5. I'm long at 8 so that's smug city. Will probably lay back if and when it hits 4.

But what is decidedly NOT smug city is my Trump short at over 6 for the GOP nom. The ghastly man is 3.8 now. God help us if the market has this right. I think otherwise but can't say I'm super certain.

The best Trump lay by far is most popular votes where someone wants 1k @ 13.5. For the agnostic back him to win the election at 9.4 as your hedge. If he wins the election he is still odds against to win the popular vote so the popular vote should be about 30, even if he is 9.4 to win.

@mods - the donate button is not available on any recent threads, is there a way to donate to the site at the moment?

Yep, Trump winning the P and (esp) winning the PV are safe lays, I agree. Re our bet, you can wait till the button comes up again, no probs there as far as I'm concerned. Particularly because although I think my call has turned out to be essentially correct, there is some quibble room.

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

Given every current poll has the Tories with around a 10 point lead rather absurd.

Plus only 40% of the French population have had both jabs compared to 53% in the UK.

69% of the UK population have had 1 jab compared to 54% in France


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

moonshine said:

I have a private bet standing that the Uk will not enter a new lockdown, as defined by pubs and restaurants closing inside again. What are my chances do you think?

I agree actually. Once all adults are double vaxxed (soon) there is simply no moral justification for it. So yes, I would be on your side of the wager.

Al adults will not be vaxxed soon. The number will top out below 90%, I believe.

Tsk, Scotland under performing again.

Scotland, like Wales, has less of the groups who are more anti-vax. If you look at localised vaccination rates, they are actually quite uniform when you are comparing similar groups.

The flip side of diversity.....

On the other hand, plenty of the 'groups' from NI (whoi presumably don't get counted in the 'diversity' stats)? That signal should appear in Scotland, too. But the level in NI isn't perhaps big enough to register anyway.

Well, are Spides diverse from the rest of us? I rather hope so....

Actually, as a complete surprise, NI has a larger number of er... hard core? Christians of the type associated with anti-vax for various spurious reasons.

Even the more er... colourful? denizens of Scotland who express an affinity for various facets of the joy joy that is the NI cultural continuum are not, in contrast, especially religious.

Scotland has secularised much more, basically.

Spide? *looks up on net*..

TSE was talking only the other day tabout the reasons why Glasgow - of all places - could not be considered a really leftie city.

But the difference between NI and W/S is not huge, and a small percentage of that difference ...

Even so, the Free Kirks seem to be absent from this statement (which has the main Presbyterians, Piskies, RCs and others)

https://www.churchofscotland.org.uk/news-and-events/news/2021/articles/faith-leaders-urge-people-to-get-covid-19-vaccine

So no idea what the FCS, FCS(C) etc actually think.

What is the membership of the more er... sporty religious groups these days in Scotland? IIRC it is a fairly small proportion of the population.

Sorry, only just finished lunch break now.

In Glasgow? Hordes of colourful types if you count Sevco Rangers fans, fewer if you count the politically/culturally Orange (overlap as they might, as TSE noted the other day), fewer still in terms of the actual free presbyterian kirks and the like (I am speaking in descriptive terms, hence the lower case).

What really complicates things is that I have now managed to fish out a formal statement of the Free Church of Scotland - I know we have a Popular Judean Liberation Front situation here but this will do for now as I have no reason to believe the FCS are inclined to be any different on works of necessity or mercy than the other and historically related [edit] FCs in Scotland.

I've found an official statement from the Kirk anent a statement from the Moderator of the FCS (specifically!) which refers to "Expressing his thankfulness for the COVID-19 vaccine program and the public's adherence to difficult lockdown restrictions [...]". Whicvh doesn't sound at all anti-vaxxy. (Thank heaven, as one might say.)

https://web.archive.org/web/20210309170051/https://freechurch.org/news/moderator-asks-first-minister-to-prioritise-church-openings

So things look more complex even. Is it possible the NI presbyterian kirks and their local Scottish congregations are more anti-vaccine? Or am I misunderstanding you?

As for kirk attendance stats,

https://www.brierleyconsultancy.com/scottish-church-census
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4tb7ehkxtt6yjwv/The Fourth Scottish Church Census 2016.pdf?dl=0

This seems to lump 'Other Presbyterians' together which is just what we do not need now I've raised the issue of heterogeneity within even the more traditional FCs, but I do notice that the Pentecostals are now a significant element. However, percentage attendance is quite low even in the Glasgow area. And the cities are the ones which will make the difference. Doesn't matter if Eriskay is wall to wall RC, or Lewis solid FC - they aren't densely enough populated.

Gnud said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/france-red-list-travel-b946083.html

"France ‘could be added to red travel list’

[Ministers] are worried about the South African variant because they think it escapes the vaccine, although they don’t have evidence of that yet,” a government source said."

Not even tarot card evidence? Why do they think it then?

“It appears to be why a lot of countries in Africa and the Middle East are on the red list despite low prevalence rates.”

Funny they didn't say that before.

The UK gov has been quite clear that the Middle East countries are all on the Red List because they’re massive travel hubs, where pretty much anyone in the world can transfer to anywhere else in the world.

There was a specific issue when the UK banned flights from South Africa, a few infecteds got in by taking indirect flights through the Middle East.

The best explanation that I can see for the polls and the recent council by-election result is that there is a large group of voters who are strongly anti-labour at the moment. Not sure how LP deals with it. I do wonder if there is a real opportunity for LDs despite the electoral system. I think they should attack Tories 2/3 of the bandwidth and attack Labour 1/3 rather than only attack the government. If they neutralised Europe issues (big if) they perhaps have an opportunity to displace Labour.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1416020128291082245

A recent study shows Oxford/ AstraZeneca’s vaccine gives powerful protection and generates robust long-term immune system responses that may last a lifetime! As well as generating virus-busting antibodies, the vaccine also creates “training camps” in the body for for search-and-destroy T-cells (CD8+ T-cells) which can kill even new variants! What does this mean? It means your immune system can continue making these vital cells long after antibodies have waned- and possibly for the rest of your life! Researchers showed adenovirus vectors can target specific cells- known as stromal cells in tissues such as the lung - generating antigen 'depots' in these long-lived cells."

Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-00969-3

This is why you should ignore the commentary of the likes of StuartDickson. He knows nothing of any value.

LostPassword said:

rottenborough said:

contrarian said:

rottenborough said:

“If Boris Johnson’s Government falls,” one Tory MP tells me, “it will be due to this.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/15/britains-ticking-debt-bomb-now-governments-greatest-threat/

It won;t just be Johnson's government.

These tory MPs are Johnson's enablers. Johnson sits at their pleasure.

Do they really think tory voters will simply blame Johnson if they let him bankrupt Britain? Do think really think they will simply forgive and forget if there's a new leader?

Think again, children.

I have thought for a while that Starmer's odds on becoming next PM are too long because the shit could truly hit the fan economically pretty quickly for the Tories.

I'm fairly confident in that scenario the Tories would ditch Johnson and give the job to someone like Truss in an attempt to distance themselves from their previous mistakes.

Starmer might well be too long to be PM after the next GE, but Johnson has to survive to contest the next GE if Starmer is to have any chance of being next PM.

If Boris goes and it is Truss and austerity 2 then say bye bye Red Wall and Starmer into No 10

Mr. Palmer, it's a shame that level of straightforward nuance wasn't the main political undercurrent in recent years, rather than the polarisation we've seen.

Theuniondivvie said:

IshmaelZ said:

https://twitter.com/beaudonnet/status/1415945761292959744

Extraordinary picture of Erfstadt earth slip.

Feck.
I only really know Berlin but my first impression flying in years ago was just how 'watery' it is. Apparently it's built on a very high water table and the drainage/pipe system (quite visible in places) necessary to keep it under control is supposedly a marvel. I wonder how much that applies to other parts of Germany?

Don't dig a sand quarry next to a river:
https://www.bing.com/maps?&cp=50.816536~6.79405&lvl=17&style=a&osid=211edfa1-c3ab-4ad0-b09e-28ec616322a8&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027

Reminds me of the St Aidan's opencast slope failure (1988) which had the River Aire (near Leeds) flowing in both directions:
https://player.slideplayer.com/24/6961351/data/images/img18.jpg

At least that made a good nature reserve (eventually).

And there was me thinking that the NHS App had been a complete disaster and didn't work. Now the criticism is that it apparently works too well. Is it really surprising that an App that does work is pinging like crazy given the number of cases there are in the community right now?

I wish the critics convinced that everything the government does is wrong and useless would make their mind up about which horse they were riding for at least 48 hours at a time. It's confusing when they career about from one extreme to the other like this.

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

rottenborough said:

contrarian said:

rottenborough said:

“If Boris Johnson’s Government falls,” one Tory MP tells me, “it will be due to this.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/15/britains-ticking-debt-bomb-now-governments-greatest-threat/

It won;t just be Johnson's government.

These tory MPs are Johnson's enablers. Johnson sits at their pleasure.

Do they really think tory voters will simply blame Johnson if they let him bankrupt Britain? Do think really think they will simply forgive and forget if there's a new leader?

Think again, children.

I have thought for a while that Starmer's odds on becoming next PM are too long because the shit could truly hit the fan economically pretty quickly for the Tories.

I'm fairly confident in that scenario the Tories would ditch Johnson and give the job to someone like Truss in an attempt to distance themselves from their previous mistakes.

Starmer might well be too long to be PM after the next GE, but Johnson has to survive to contest the next GE if Starmer is to have any chance of being next PM.

If Boris goes and it is Truss and austerity 2 then say bye bye Red Wall and Starmer into No 10

I doubt if Austerity 2 will start before the next election. It will only be signalled by some vague "responsible finances" statement in manifesto. The debt is an international issue so different from previous situations, analogous to end of WW2 but obviously not the same. Possibilities of international mechanisms to make it disappear.

NerysHughes said:

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

This should be a new thread header, tories doing terribly, just 10-12% ahead in the polls. Labour certs for nect GE with huge landslide now they are on 30%.

That might be a tad too positive though

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

rottenborough said:

contrarian said:

rottenborough said:

“If Boris Johnson’s Government falls,” one Tory MP tells me, “it will be due to this.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/15/britains-ticking-debt-bomb-now-governments-greatest-threat/

It won;t just be Johnson's government.

These tory MPs are Johnson's enablers. Johnson sits at their pleasure.

Do they really think tory voters will simply blame Johnson if they let him bankrupt Britain? Do think really think they will simply forgive and forget if there's a new leader?

Think again, children.

I have thought for a while that Starmer's odds on becoming next PM are too long because the shit could truly hit the fan economically pretty quickly for the Tories.

I'm fairly confident in that scenario the Tories would ditch Johnson and give the job to someone like Truss in an attempt to distance themselves from their previous mistakes.

Starmer might well be too long to be PM after the next GE, but Johnson has to survive to contest the next GE if Starmer is to have any chance of being next PM.

If Boris goes and it is Truss and austerity 2 then say bye bye Red Wall and Starmer into No 10

I agree. Truss can’t retain the red wall. Not sure any of the frontbench can. Perhaps the value for next con leader is among the 2019 intake?

Step up @Tissue_Price

Who's behind the letter to the Lancet entitled "Mass Infection is Not an Option"? Among the first 15 signatories I recognised the social psychologists John Drury and Stephen Reicher, alongside Susan Michie. Some give their affiliation as "NHS".

Are there any known whackballs on there?

The Green Economics Institute (see Miriam Kennet) connects to the Green European Foundation, publisher of "Green Values, Religion and Secularism"... I wish I had more time to spend digging...

Gotta love the photo of Bianca Madison-Vuleta at the GEI Trust's website literally hugging a tree.

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

And yet they lead the polls by a large amount.
I know.

My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.

1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say

2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.

3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.

The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.

The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?

Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

And yet they lead the polls by a large amount.
I know.

My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.

1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say

2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.

3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.

The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.

The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?

"C-4 Lab +4 say."

You do know that the B&S swing would have lost 25 more Labour seats to the Conservatives over 2019?

NorthofStoke said:

The best explanation that I can see for the polls and the recent council by-election result is that there is a large group of voters who are strongly anti-labour at the moment. Not sure how LP deals with it. I do wonder if there is a real opportunity for LDs despite the electoral system. I think they should attack Tories 2/3 of the bandwidth and attack Labour 1/3 rather than only attack the government. If they neutralised Europe issues (big if) they perhaps have an opportunity to displace Labour.

I think the explanation is that, as always, there are two large groups: one that won't vote Tory, and one that won't vote Labour. Composition changes, but together they form the majority of the voting population. I suspect most PBers belong to one or other group. More to the point millions of non political people belong to each group.

The group that won't vote Tory have choices - Lab, LD, Green, PC, SNP. The group that won't vote Labour have to support the Tories because everyone else is on the Labourish/centre left side.

The centre left have a small majority but can't utilise it in a maximal way.

algarkirk said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

moonshine said:

I have a private bet standing that the Uk will not enter a new lockdown, as defined by pubs and restaurants closing inside again. What are my chances do you think?

I agree actually. Once all adults are double vaxxed (soon) there is simply no moral justification for it. So yes, I would be on your side of the wager.

Al adults will not be vaxxed soon. The number will top out below 90%, I believe.

Tsk, Scotland under performing again.

Scotland, like Wales, has less of the groups who are more anti-vax. If you look at localised vaccination rates, they are actually quite uniform when you are comparing similar groups.

The flip side of diversity.....

On the other hand, plenty of the 'groups' from NI (whoi presumably don't get counted in the 'diversity' stats)? That signal should appear in Scotland, too. But the level in NI isn't perhaps big enough to register anyway.

Well, are Spides diverse from the rest of us? I rather hope so....

Actually, as a complete surprise, NI has a larger number of er... hard core? Christians of the type associated with anti-vax for various spurious reasons.

Even the more er... colourful? denizens of Scotland who express an affinity for various facets of the joy joy that is the NI cultural continuum are not, in contrast, especially religious.

Scotland has secularised much more, basically.

Spide? *looks up on net*..

TSE was talking only the other day tabout the reasons why Glasgow - of all places - could not be considered a really leftie city.

But the difference between NI and W/S is not huge, and a small percentage of that difference ...

Even so, the Free Kirks seem to be absent from this statement (which has the main Presbyterians, Piskies, RCs and others)

https://www.churchofscotland.org.uk/news-and-events/news/2021/articles/faith-leaders-urge-people-to-get-covid-19-vaccine

So no idea what the FCS, FCS(C) etc actually think.

What is the membership of the more er... sporty religious groups these days in Scotland? IIRC it is a fairly small proportion of the population.

Sorry, only just finished lunch break now.

In Glasgow? Hordes of colourful types if you count Sevco Rangers fans, fewer if you count the politically/culturally Orange (overlap as they might, as TSE noted the other day), fewer still in terms of the actual free presbyterian kirks and the like (I am speaking in descriptive terms, hence the lower case).

What really complicates things is that I have now managed to fish out a formal statement of the Free Church of Scotland - I know we have a Popular Judean Liberation Front situation here but this will do for now as I have no reason to believe the FCS are inclined to be any different on works of necessity or mercy than the other and historically related [edit] FCs in Scotland.

I've found an official statement from the Kirk anent a statement from the Moderator of the FCS (specifically!) which refers to "Expressing his thankfulness for the COVID-19 vaccine program and the public's adherence to difficult lockdown restrictions [...]". Whicvh doesn't sound at all anti-vaxxy. (Thank heaven, as one might say.)

https://web.archive.org/web/20210309170051/https://freechurch.org/news/moderator-asks-first-minister-to-prioritise-church-openings

So things look more complex even. Is it possible the NI presbyterian kirks and their local Scottish congregations are more anti-vaccine? Or am I misunderstanding you?

As for kirk attendance stats,

https://www.brierleyconsultancy.com/scottish-church-census
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4tb7ehkxtt6yjwv/The Fourth Scottish Church Census 2016.pdf?dl=0

This seems to lump 'Other Presbyterians' together which is just what we do not need now I've raised the issue of heterogeneity within even the more traditional FCs, but I do notice that the Pentecostals are now a significant element. However, percentage attendance is quite low even in the Glasgow area. And the cities are the ones which will make the difference. Doesn't matter if Eriskay is wall to wall RC, or Lewis solid FC - they aren't densely enough populated.

Time to go back to Charles I's splendid wheeze to make the Anglican Book of Common Prayer + episcopacy compulsory for all Scots. To be enforced by of excommunication and exile to Darien. What could possibly go wrong?

Your chronology is a wee bittockie out. And on a pedantic PB-style quibble, it was James VI who reintroduced bishops (as did, later, Charles II and - I think - also, but unsuccessfully, James VII.

But, yes, what could go wrong?

Gnud said:

Who's behind the letter to the Lancet entitled "Mass Infection is Not an Option"? Among the first 15 signatories I recognised the social psychologists John Drury and Stephen Reicher, alongside Susan Michie. Some give their affiliation as "NHS".

Are there any known whackballs on there?

The Green Economics Institute (see Miriam Kennet) connects to the Green European Foundation, publisher of "Green Values, Religion and Secularism"... I wish I had more time to spend digging...

Gotta love the photo of Bianca Madison-Vuleta at the GEI Trust's website literally hugging a tree.

Brenda who cleans the bogs at f##k sticks new metropolitan university is on it. Apparently, anybody could sign it.

Awesome crowd at Silverstone this weekend, most of the grandstands already full on Friday lunchtime.

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

moonshine said:

I have a private bet standing that the Uk will not enter a new lockdown, as defined by pubs and restaurants closing inside again. What are my chances do you think?

I agree actually. Once all adults are double vaxxed (soon) there is simply no moral justification for it. So yes, I would be on your side of the wager.

Al adults will not be vaxxed soon. The number will top out below 90%, I believe.

Tsk, Scotland under performing again.

Scotland, like Wales, has less of the groups who are more anti-vax. If you look at localised vaccination rates, they are actually quite uniform when you are comparing similar groups.

The flip side of diversity.....

On the other hand, plenty of the 'groups' from NI (whoi presumably don't get counted in the 'diversity' stats)? That signal should appear in Scotland, too. But the level in NI isn't perhaps big enough to register anyway.

Well, are Spides diverse from the rest of us? I rather hope so....

Actually, as a complete surprise, NI has a larger number of er... hard core? Christians of the type associated with anti-vax for various spurious reasons.

Even the more er... colourful? denizens of Scotland who express an affinity for various facets of the joy joy that is the NI cultural continuum are not, in contrast, especially religious.

Scotland has secularised much more, basically.

Spide? *looks up on net*..

TSE was talking only the other day tabout the reasons why Glasgow - of all places - could not be considered a really leftie city.

But the difference between NI and W/S is not huge, and a small percentage of that difference ...

Even so, the Free Kirks seem to be absent from this statement (which has the main Presbyterians, Piskies, RCs and others)

https://www.churchofscotland.org.uk/news-and-events/news/2021/articles/faith-leaders-urge-people-to-get-covid-19-vaccine

So no idea what the FCS, FCS(C) etc actually think.

What is the membership of the more er... sporty religious groups these days in Scotland? IIRC it is a fairly small proportion of the population.

Sorry, only just finished lunch break now.

In Glasgow? Hordes of colourful types if you count Sevco Rangers fans, fewer if you count the politically/culturally Orange (overlap as they might, as TSE noted the other day), fewer still in terms of the actual free presbyterian kirks and the like (I am speaking in descriptive terms, hence the lower case).

What really complicates things is that I have now managed to fish out a formal statement of the Free Church of Scotland - I know we have a Popular Judean Liberation Front situation here but this will do for now as I have no reason to believe the FCS are inclined to be any different on works of necessity or mercy than the other and historically related [edit] FCs in Scotland.

I've found an official statement from the Kirk anent a statement from the Moderator of the FCS (specifically!) which refers to "Expressing his thankfulness for the COVID-19 vaccine program and the public's adherence to difficult lockdown restrictions [...]". Whicvh doesn't sound at all anti-vaxxy. (Thank heaven, as one might say.)

https://web.archive.org/web/20210309170051/https://freechurch.org/news/moderator-asks-first-minister-to-prioritise-church-openings

So things look more complex even. Is it possible the NI presbyterian kirks and their local Scottish congregations are more anti-vaccine? Or am I misunderstanding you?

As for kirk attendance stats,

https://www.brierleyconsultancy.com/scottish-church-census
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4tb7ehkxtt6yjwv/The Fourth Scottish Church Census 2016.pdf?dl=0

This seems to lump 'Other Presbyterians' together which is just what we do not need now I've raised the issue of heterogeneity within even the more traditional FCs, but I do notice that the Pentecostals are now a significant element. However, percentage attendance is quite low even in the Glasgow area. And the cities are the ones which will make the difference. Doesn't matter if Eriskay is wall to wall RC, or Lewis solid FC - they aren't densely enough populated.

Time to go back to Charles I's splendid wheeze to make the Anglican Book of Common Prayer + episcopacy compulsory for all Scots. To be enforced by of excommunication and exile to Darien. What could possibly go wrong?

Your chronology is a wee bittockie out. And on a pedantic PB-style quibble, it was James VI who reintroduced bishops (as did, later, Charles II and - I think - also, but unsuccessfully, James VII.

But, yes, what could go wrong?

Certainly the Scottish Episcopal Church should be merged with the Church of England and the Church of Ireland (at least in NI) and ideally the Church of Wales to create one Anglican Church across the British Isles

alex_ said:

The Beta variant has been around for at least six months if not more. Surely we must have reasonable evidence for whether vaccines are effective or not against it? And from a “preventing illness front”.

We do.....

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

And yet they lead the polls by a large amount.
I know.

My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.

1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say

2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.

3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.

The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.

The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?

What's driving the third? Lack of Corbyn.
Some semblance of radical policies, not retreads of last century might help. It's not as if the opportunity for new thinking isn't there.
Labour needs a vision of the future. Post-pandemic. The Tories have one set out yesterday. Labour doesn't.

GB news suspension of Gutto Harri isn't about "cancel culture", but it might be a disciplinary issue.

There would certainly be criticism if a BBC or Sky newsreader did the same and it would probably be at odds with impartiality clauses within their employment contract.

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

Cicero said:

Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.

Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.

More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...

Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.

Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...

And yet they lead the polls by a large amount.
I know.

My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.

1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say

2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.

3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.

The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.

The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?

Good analysis. On (3), some have moved from Lab but within the left because of the rejection of Jezzaology. A similar number, I suggest, have moved from Labour because Jezza opinions and Jezza friends are still allowed in it and could come back any time. A number have shifted because a GE is well away and the centre left has alternatives.

If and when the centre left actually come to a sort of 'wisdom of crowds' understanding of how to actually win against the Tories they will be formidable. I think that nullifying Jezzaology is central to this. Lots think keeping Jezzaology is essential to success.

The Tories are not the only lot with big problems. The hard pressed centre right - cornered by impossible circumstance as they are in power at a moment when all decisions are wrong - forgets that the centre left has its troubles too.

Casino_Royale said:

GB news suspension of Gutto Harri isn't about "cancel culture", but it might be a disciplinary issue.

There would certainly be criticism if a BBC or Sky newsreader did the same and it would probably be at odds with impartiality clauses within their employment contract.

OTOH, GBN did say that they had no company position on taking the knee - widely quoted yesterday (in ironic juxtaposition with the news of Mr Harri's getting his jotters temporarily).

Casino_Royale said:

GB news suspension of Gutto Harri isn't about "cancel culture", but it might be a disciplinary issue.

There would certainly be criticism if a BBC or Sky newsreader did the same and it would probably be at odds with impartiality clauses within their employment contract.

Though GB News was supposed to be a "Free Speech" station.

I guess Free Speech only goes so far.

DavidL said:

And there was me thinking that the NHS App had been a complete disaster and didn't work. Now the criticism is that it apparently works too well. Is it really surprising that an App that does work is pinging like crazy given the number of cases there are in the community right now?

I wish the critics convinced that everything the government does is wrong and useless would make their mind up about which horse they were riding for at least 48 hours at a time. It's confusing when they career about from one extreme to the other like this.

I think the criticism is the lack of joined up policy. It is great that track and trace actually works at last (it was a complete dogs dinner last year when I had to try and use it in September), but the fact that it works on its own is not a cause for celebration - it is that it needs to then be joined by a sensible policy. Making all people isolate for 10 days that have been in an area deemed to be pingable is ridiculous, particularly if they have been vaccinated so highly unlikely to be contagious. The policy needs changing now. It is overly cautious and needs immediate change.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

algarkirk said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

moonshine said:

I have a private bet standing that the Uk will not enter a new lockdown, as defined by pubs and restaurants closing inside again. What are my chances do you think?

I agree actually. Once all adults are double vaxxed (soon) there is simply no moral justification for it. So yes, I would be on your side of the wager.

Al adults will not be vaxxed soon. The number will top out below 90%, I believe.

Tsk, Scotland under performing again.

Scotland, like Wales, has less of the groups who are more anti-vax. If you look at localised vaccination rates, they are actually quite uniform when you are comparing similar groups.

The flip side of diversity.....

On the other hand, plenty of the 'groups' from NI (whoi presumably don't get counted in the 'diversity' stats)? That signal should appear in Scotland, too. But the level in NI isn't perhaps big enough to register anyway.

Well, are Spides diverse from the rest of us? I rather hope so....

Actually, as a complete surprise, NI has a larger number of er... hard core? Christians of the type associated with anti-vax for various spurious reasons.

Even the more er... colourful? denizens of Scotland who express an affinity for various facets of the joy joy that is the NI cultural continuum are not, in contrast, especially religious.

Scotland has secularised much more, basically.

Spide? *looks up on net*..

TSE was talking only the other day tabout the reasons why Glasgow - of all places - could not be considered a really leftie city.

But the difference between NI and W/S is not huge, and a small percentage of that difference ...

Even so, the Free Kirks seem to be absent from this statement (which has the main Presbyterians, Piskies, RCs and others)

https://www.churchofscotland.org.uk/news-and-events/news/2021/articles/faith-leaders-urge-people-to-get-covid-19-vaccine

So no idea what the FCS, FCS(C) etc actually think.

What is the membership of the more er... sporty religious groups these days in Scotland? IIRC it is a fairly small proportion of the population.

Sorry, only just finished lunch break now.

In Glasgow? Hordes of colourful types if you count Sevco Rangers fans, fewer if you count the politically/culturally Orange (overlap as they might, as TSE noted the other day), fewer still in terms of the actual free presbyterian kirks and the like (I am speaking in descriptive terms, hence the lower case).

What really complicates things is that I have now managed to fish out a formal statement of the Free Church of Scotland - I know we have a Popular Judean Liberation Front situation here but this will do for now as I have no reason to believe the FCS are inclined to be any different on works of necessity or mercy than the other and historically related [edit] FCs in Scotland.

I've found an official statement from the Kirk anent a statement from the Moderator of the FCS (specifically!) which refers to "Expressing his thankfulness for the COVID-19 vaccine program and the public's adherence to difficult lockdown restrictions [...]". Whicvh doesn't sound at all anti-vaxxy. (Thank heaven, as one might say.)

https://web.archive.org/web/20210309170051/https://freechurch.org/news/moderator-asks-first-minister-to-prioritise-church-openings

So things look more complex even. Is it possible the NI presbyterian kirks and their local Scottish congregations are more anti-vaccine? Or am I misunderstanding you?

As for kirk attendance stats,

https://www.brierleyconsultancy.com/scottish-church-census
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4tb7ehkxtt6yjwv/The Fourth Scottish Church Census 2016.pdf?dl=0

This seems to lump 'Other Presbyterians' together which is just what we do not need now I've raised the issue of heterogeneity within even the more traditional FCs, but I do notice that the Pentecostals are now a significant element. However, percentage attendance is quite low even in the Glasgow area. And the cities are the ones which will make the difference. Doesn't matter if Eriskay is wall to wall RC, or Lewis solid FC - they aren't densely enough populated.

Time to go back to Charles I's splendid wheeze to make the Anglican Book of Common Prayer + episcopacy compulsory for all Scots. To be enforced by of excommunication and exile to Darien. What could possibly go wrong?

Your chronology is a wee bittockie out. And on a pedantic PB-style quibble, it was James VI who reintroduced bishops (as did, later, Charles II and - I think - also, but unsuccessfully, James VII.

But, yes, what could go wrong?

Certainly the Scottish Episcopal Church should be merged with the Church of England and the Church of Ireland (at least in NI) and ideally the Church of Wales to create one Anglican Church across the British Isles

The SEC was always separate from Henry VIII's Catholic Church. Separate Apostolic Succession right back to the Apostles.

And NI is not British but Irish. So can't call it the 'British Isles'. Could call it 'The Apostolic Churtch of the Isles of a bit of Ireland and Britain'.

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

contrarian said:

The graphic we should all be looking has nothing to do with Covid. It's Fraser Nelson's cheat sheet of the UK's gilt maturity profile

Holy f8ck. Its far more weighted to the front end than I realised and has a stack of maturity rollovers in coming few years.

If the DMO is refinancing those in a rising interest rate environment, URGH.

Only because Fraser Nelson has sort of misrepresented the maturity profile and you have misunderstood it.

The QE gilts are theoretically needing to be rolled over but the QE gilts are owned by the Bank of England. So it's a case of rolling over debts that are already owed to the UK. The Treasury doesn't pay any interest on these debts so realistically the BoE can just roll them over indefinitely with the Treasury never paying interest on these.

If you look at the gilts that matter, the ones we actually pay interest on, they have a mean fifteen year, median eleven year, maturity.

The Bank may want or need to use the open market to refinance at some juncture, as you well know.

If I understand the mechanism correctly, on the boe’s balance sheet against the asset of gilts, there are liabilities owed to commercial banks. Everyone says this means the gilts held by the Bank can’t just be forgiven. I don’t see why. When it’s your game you get to set the rules. The gilts held by the Bank can just be converted into a quasi equity injection by the government into the Bank.

I don’t think there’s an realistic chance of all this QE ever being refinanced in commercial markets. It’s spaffed debasement of Fiat and won’t be reversed ever.