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Labour lead at 1- Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 25th July - Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%; APP -19

All supplementary questions show swings to Dave (net 6 in approval ratings) and the govt on the economy with tied at 45% on whether it's being managed well.

CarlottaVance said:

Fourth! Two behind the separatists!

For a little light relief, this latest "victory for Eck" is facing challenges over on that website which cannot be named.....

I too popped over to Scot Goes Pop - I think Mike is pretty relaxed about referring to it - and James Kelly never disappoints.

Interesting Nat snippets from YouGov :

Will successful Commonwealth games make it more likely Scots will vote for independence? Scot subsample: Yes: 22, No: 9, no diff:60.

And then the chippy Scot who cheers an English loss:

Imagine the last UK team in a competition is England would you want them to: (Scottish subsample):
Win: 53
Lose: 11
No difference: 30

Notably the English support for a Scottish loss is around half that....

Latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection Countdown

50 hours

peter_from_putney said:

JohnO said:

Labour lead at 1- Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 25th July - Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%; APP -19

All supplementary questions show swings to Dave (net 6 in approval ratings) and the govt on the economy with tied at 45% on whether it's being managed well.

Great poll result for Dave. Backed up by recent ICM and Populus polls, it looks as if crossover with YouGov is at last imminent.

Will Labour be rattled? You bet they will ...... that huge lead has all but gone!

UNS still shows Lab Govt, though. Lab 327, Cons 285. LD bloodbath, 11.

OldKingCole said:

peter_from_putney said:

JohnO said:

Labour lead at 1- Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 25th July - Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%; APP -19

All supplementary questions show swings to Dave (net 6 in approval ratings) and the govt on the economy with tied at 45% on whether it's being managed well.

Great poll result for Dave. Backed up by recent ICM and Populus polls, it looks as if crossover with YouGov is at last imminent.

Will Labour be rattled? You bet they will ...... that huge lead has all but gone!

UNS still shows Lab Govt, though. Lab 327, Cons 285. LD bloodbath, 11.

The UKIP vote must be squeezed in the campaign, I find the idea that it'll stay in double figures improbable.

@carrieapples: Did Ed Miliband really hire a voice coach just 24 hours after claiming he has no time for 'politics driven by image'? http://t.co/i1NfuaGu4I

Scott_P said:

@carrieapples: Did Ed Miliband really hire a voice coach just 24 hours after claiming he has no time for 'politics driven by image'? http://t.co/i1NfuaGu4I

I knew it would end in tears..

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Sunday Times reports that Ed Miliband has hired an autism expert to help him re-craft his image. Seriously.

That actually sounds a logical step.. notwithstanding the fact that Miliband is a lying hypocrite.

I cant watch him, I just cant, I hit the off switch.

I watch the BBC video clips of the "important" things he has to say, but otherwise I find it impossible to listen,.. it was pretty much the same with Brown

Scott_P said:

SquareRoot said:

I cant watch him, I just cant, I hit the off switch.

Are you saying he has an image problem?

Oh, wait...

It really is a massive problem. He's very difficult to watch, which if your primary role is to communicate with a mass audience is, shall we say, sub optimal. I've no doubt people will defend him using the "it's shallow" argument, and they'll be right. But it doesn't stop it being true. Once he's exposed in the up coming campaign it's going to be brutal, he's going to end up as a joke figure, much as Kinnock did.

Innocent_Abroad said:

SquareRoot said:

I cant watch him, I just cant, I hit the off switch.

Who was the last Labour leader you wanted to watch?

John Smith and in the early days, Blair.

"So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence"

Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7 (8 excluding DKs). From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?

Scott_P said:

saddened said:

Once he's exposed in the up coming campaign it's going to be brutal, he's going to end up as a joke figure, much as Kinnock did.

@DPJHodges: Labour's decision to launch its summer campaign by focussing on Ed Miliband's image is utter madness.

This is also strange

@politicshome: Several female Conservative MPs have urged the party not to focus attacks on Ed Miliband’s image. http://t.co/OBFNhncVlq

Ed Miliband has decided to focus attacks on Ed Milband's image.

I think I must be channelling Dan Hodges, or vice versa, I said in an earlier thread that they had taken leave of their senses.

JohnO said:

Labour lead at 1- Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 25th July - Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%; APP -19
All supplementary questions show swings to Dave (net 6 in approval ratings) and the govt on the economy with tied at 45% on whether it's being managed well.

Maybe an outlier? But if not and it really is a cross over point, a few weeks of Conservative leads would start a panic in Labour.

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: "The underlining narrative of your speech is that there's and Ed Miliband problem".

That reads well

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: "The underlining narrative of your speech is that there's and Ed Miliband problem".

Eh ?

Innocent_Abroad said:

SquareRoot said:

Yes John Smith, I thought bhe was a decent cove in fact Sunny Jim was too.

You have forgotten the Winter of Discontent! I think everyone has roseate memories of Smith because of the timing of his death. He never had to deal with the realities of power.

I haven't forgotten anything, you asked me who was the last Labour leader I wanted to listen to , So I told you. I also mentioned others who are not in the repugnant mould or Latterly Blair Brown and now Miliband.

edmundintokyo said:

The media were always going to do a cycle on Ed Miliband's image at some point between now and the general election, better to do it over the summer when nobody's paying attention. More speeches planned over the next month or so IIUC, probably also about things Labour would rather get out of the way.

Except that Ed has explicitly framed every cycle around his image.

Next time he gives a speech anywhere except a bland conference room, the first question will be "why this photo op?"

All the way to the election

saddened said:

Scott_P said:

SquareRoot said:

I cant watch him, I just cant, I hit the off switch.

Are you saying he has an image problem?

Oh, wait...

It really is a massive problem. He's very difficult to watch, which if your primary role is to communicate with a mass audience is, shall we say, sub optimal. I've no doubt people will defend him using the "it's shallow" argument, and they'll be right. But it doesn't stop it being true. Once he's exposed in the up coming campaign it's going to be brutal, he's going to end up as a joke figure, much as Kinnock did.

I think he'd settle for that - if he wins the same vote share that Kinnock did he wouldn't just be a joke figure, he'd be a joke Prime Minister.

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

saddened said:

Once he's exposed in the up coming campaign it's going to be brutal, he's going to end up as a joke figure, much as Kinnock did.

@DPJHodges: Labour's decision to launch its summer campaign by focussing on Ed Miliband's image is utter madness.

This is also strange

@politicshome: Several female Conservative MPs have urged the party not to focus attacks on Ed Miliband’s image. http://t.co/OBFNhncVlq

Ed Miliband has decided to focus attacks on Ed Milband's image.

The media were always going to do a cycle on Ed Miliband's image at some point between now and the general election, better to do it over the summer when nobody's paying attention. More speeches planned over the next month or so IIUC, probably also about things Labour would rather get out of the way.

Indeed, Milliband is clearly starting early. That has to be a good thing.

Jonathan said:

Indeed, Milliband is clearly starting early. That has to be a good thing.

No

If the Tories had produced a campaign saying those things, they would have been pilloried.

Now Ed has done it himself, all bets are off

The image things is interesting. Attlee would not have got the job today, whilst Eden would have prospered.

One of the best arguments in favour of a constitutional monarchy is to split showbiz and glamour from politics. While the royal family wear expensive, shiny things and appear in glossy magazines, we elect quietly, effective people to run the country.

Sadly it doesn't seem to work out that way. Blair, Cameron and Clegg are the Hello generation of politicians.

Innocent_Abroad said:

SquareRoot said:

Yes John Smith, I thought bhe was a decent cove in fact Sunny Jim was too.

You have forgotten the Winter of Discontent! I think everyone has roseate memories of Smith because of the timing of his death. He never had to deal with the realities of power.

You asked a specific question in the hopes that you wouldn't get an answer. Now that you have you are attempting to shift the goalposts, why do you do that?

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

Indeed, Milliband is clearly starting early. That has to be a good thing.

No

If the Tories had produced a campaign saying those things, they would have been pilloried.

Now Ed has done it himself, all bets are off

The whole point is that given these things were going to be said anyway. Better to do it on your own terms, shape the debate and do it when it doesn't matter quite so much. it will blunt the attack to come and may even turn a weakness into a strength.

I guess we can expect more airbrushed photos of Cameron.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence"

Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7 (8 excluding DKs). From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?

I'd suggest a minor adjustment: not so much SNP/Labour in the indyref as a Yes/No distinction, of course. About 30% of Labour voters in 2011 - and those were the real hardcore, help ma boab - are going for Yes from what I see in recent polls. So far.

I'm glad to see someone else saw what seemed the salient fact re the poll - that the No lead has continued to drop to a point where only a 4 percentage swing is needed for Yes to win. OK, just one more point on a graph with a fair MoE, so I'm not reading much into it. Still, it is interesting, as we are not even past the indyref armistice during hols and Commonwealth Games yet. And yes, the higher turnout for Yes will be increasingly important.

richardDodd said:

Love to see the airbrushed snaps of Cameron .. where are they?

Like these ones...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/jan/07/david-cameron-campaign-poster-rumour

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence"

Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7. From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?

The idea of a shy SNP/pro-YES vote is, I'd suggest, nonsense. A bit like the "shy" kippers ready to tell pollsters they'd vote purple in the Euros and then didn't.

Morning all

I find it curious that earlier in the week when YouGov and Ashcroft showed big Labour leads some people on here were claiming the polls wouldn't be reliable because of holidays and we should wait until the Autumn and discount any polls before then.

A couple of "favourable" (translates as pro-Conservative and anti-Labour or anti-UKIP) polls later and every poll needs to be micro-analysed and accepted as the very incarnation of Truth itself.

Yeah right...the weather's nice, holiday time is here and people are feeling better disposed towards almost everything (except Gatwick Airport baggage handlers).

As isam has said, there's nothing wrong with hiring a voice coach, I thought that's what a certain Margaret Thatcher did.

Miliband is trying to pull the same fast one Brown did. People are inherently generous and wish to believe everyone has talents. As such those two use their utter lack of ability in image management to claim that they must be serious, competent, thinking figures. At present there is no evidence for this in either case.

Carnyx said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence"

Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7 (8 excluding DKs). From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?

I'd suggest a minor adjustment: not so much SNP/Labour in the indyref as a Yes/No distinction, of course. About 30% of Labour voters in 2011 - and those were the real hardcore, help ma boab - are going for Yes from what I see in recent polls. So far.

I'm glad to see someone else saw what seemed the salient fact re the poll - that the No lead has continued to drop to a point where only a 4 percentage swing is needed for Yes to win. OK, just one more point on a graph with a fair MoE, so I'm not reading much into it. Still, it is interesting, as we are not even past the indyref armistice during hols and Commonwealth Games yet. And yes, the higher turnout for Yes will be increasingly important.

Also telling that Bitter Together have to pay people to deliver their leaflets, mainly brought in from England on £10 per hour. meanwhile Yes has thousands of volunteers tramping the streets. It all looks very different from up here.

Re Sunny Jim and Smith.
Jim was a fine man, poor PM but held off the loony fringe better than Foot, and was very much like Major in the 'no bitterness' stakes'
Smith was a dreadful politician, seemed a decent fellow, not a patch on Gould who he destroyed in the leadership election. The 92 shadow budget was idiocy incarnate, and he would have struggled to get a landslide in 97 IMO, although he would clearly have won at a canter an 05 type majority

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence"

Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7 (8 excluding DKs). From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?

I'd suggest a minor adjustment: not so much SNP/Labour in the indyref as a Yes/No distinction, of course. About 30% of Labour voters in 2011 - and those were the real hardcore, help ma boab - are going for Yes from what I see in recent polls. So far.

I'm glad to see someone else saw what seemed the salient fact re the poll - that the No lead has continued to drop to a point where only a 4 percentage swing is needed for Yes to win. OK, just one more point on a graph with a fair MoE, so I'm not reading much into it. Still, it is interesting, as we are not even past the indyref armistice during hols and Commonwealth Games yet. And yes, the higher turnout for Yes will be increasingly important.

Also telling that Bitter Together have to pay people to deliver their leaflets, mainly brought in from England on £10 per hour. meanwhile Yes has thousands of volunteers tramping the streets. It all looks very different from up here.

Do you have a source for the mainly from England part of your post. Because if true it would be very interesting.

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

"So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence"

Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7 (8 excluding DKs). From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?

I'd suggest a minor adjustment: not so much SNP/Labour in the indyref as a Yes/No distinction, of course. About 30% of Labour voters in 2011 - and those were the real hardcore, help ma boab - are going for Yes from what I see in recent polls. So far.

I'm glad to see someone else saw what seemed the salient fact re the poll - that the No lead has continued to drop to a point where only a 4 percentage swing is needed for Yes to win. OK, just one more point on a graph with a fair MoE, so I'm not reading much into it. Still, it is interesting, as we are not even past the indyref armistice during hols and Commonwealth Games yet. And yes, the higher turnout for Yes will be increasingly important.

Also telling that Bitter Together have to pay people to deliver their leaflets, mainly brought in from England on £10 per hour. meanwhile Yes has thousands of volunteers tramping the streets. It all looks very different from up here.

I noticed that too. Is it, I wonder, to do with the strange Electoral Commission rules which IIRC don't count money spent as salaries? Got to do something with all that dosh from wealthy non-voting types, I suppose.

Also my reading if Ed Milibands speech isn't that he think all photo ops are bad and he is above them, more an admission that he's not as good as them as Cameron. Obviously the implication is that he would be better at other parts of the job of PM , but to criticise him for doing a photo pop, which us part of the job of any MP, on the back of his speech, misses the point completely

You can tell by looking who the people saying it are that it's all about an agenda rather than actual debate

Milibands main problem is not the voice, it's that nasty sneer when he doesn't agree with a point being made to him. He's arrogant, as shown by the intellectual self-confidence BS.
That, and he is hamstrung by Balls and Harman. One he could and should get rid of, and one he is stuck with,

MikeSmithson said:

SquareRoot said:

SquareRoot said:

Of you think that portraying yourself as a liar and a hypocrite is a good thing, then I guess you are right.

I mean no sooner was he saying these things than he was flying off for a photo op with Obama.

The ONLY people who matter are the 2010 LD switchers to LAB 72% of whom are more satisfied with EdM. Compare that with the 65% CON voters satisfied with Dave.

See http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/CON-LAB-BATTLEGROUND-JULY-2014-FULL-TABLES.pdf

You'll still be saying that after crossover. You are fixated on 2010 LD's.

Mr. Woolie, well quite. Hard to take seriously a chap who is full of intellectual self-confidence and struggles to outwit a bacon sandwich.

Edited extra bit: [to clarify] I said at the time, and still think, judging politicians by such silly photo ops is daft. However, you can't then claim to not be interested in them when you clearly are without looking not only hypocritical but also as if you think voters are bloody stupid.

Flying for a photo with Obama on Monday (missing the Ukraine/Gaza statement in the Commons) and then claiming you don't care about photo ops is treating voters like morons.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, that's Better Together, yes?

I'm sorry to hear of the deranged messages she's been receiving. Glad she sounds like a sensible young lady who's not letting it put her off.

It is indeed. I do think someone should have thought a little harder about the inevitable abbreviation.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie, well quite. Hard to take seriously a chap who is full of intellectual self-confidence and struggles to outwit a bacon sandwich.

Edited extra bit: [to clarify] I said at the time, and still think, judging politicians by such silly photo ops is daft. However, you can't then claim to not be interested in them when you clearly are without looking not only hypocritical but also as if you think voters are bloody stupid.

Flying for a photo with Obama on Monday (missing the Ukraine/Gaza statement in the Commons) and then claiming you don't care about photo ops is treating voters like morons.

Worse, it was a dereliction of his duty to her majesty as leader of her opposition. A point which should be rammed down his throat again and again, not fit for office.

FrankBooth said:

MikeSmithson said:

SquareRoot said:

SquareRoot said:

Of you think that portraying yourself as a liar and a hypocrite is a good thing, then I guess you are right.

I mean no sooner was he saying these things than he was flying off for a photo op with Obama.

The ONLY people who matter are the 2010 LD switchers to LAB 72% of whom are more satisfied with EdM. Compare that with the 65% CON voters satisfied with Dave.

See http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/CON-LAB-BATTLEGROUND-JULY-2014-FULL-TABLES.pdf

I agree those voters are vital, but if they live in the south west of England, they are more use to Cameron than to Miliband.

Mike seems to think the LD vote share will hold up in Tory/Lib marginals but this in some magical way won't impact on the Lab national share of the vote. Red liberals are being counted twice in this fantasy 'only game in town' thesis.

Not sure whether Hamilton or Magnussen will be last out of the pit lane. Apparently Hamilton's front suspension was the only significant part of the car not ruined by fire damage. The mechanics won't have had much sleep last night.

As it appears to be such a defining event, I have finally got around to watching the Sky News video of watching Ed eating a bacon sandwich. It just looks like someone eating - he's not doing it with his mouth open; he's not obviously slavering. Have I missed something?

Really interesting column in the ST today by David Smith, most of which is available here: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002037.html#more

He says:

"But £95bn is still a big number, and is a lot bigger than the OBR expected when it published its first forecast alongside Osborne’s first budget, back in June 2010, when it predicted a deficit of only £37bn for this year. Doesn’t this tell us that the critics are right, and that the chancellor has soft-pedalled on austerity, kicking the can down the road?

No. If we take public spending, which is where the chancellor gets it in the next from his right-wing critics, the striking thing is not that that spending has been relaxed but that it has been tightened – cut – relative to the 2010 plans.

According to those plans, the government intended to spend £722bn in the 2013-14 fiscal year, that one that ended this spring. In fact it spent £714bn.

Spending has been lower each year than set out then. Public sector current spending was originally intended to be £679bn in 2013-14. In fact it was £668bn. Unusually, for any government, spending has come in comfortably within budget. There has been no slippage."

So Avery is largely right. Osborne, with a lot of help from Danny Alexander, has been astonishingly successful in controlling public spending. He has also refused to panic when the tax receipts that faster growth ought to have delivered did not arrive and cut further. The result should be a rapidly improving financial situation as we play catch up with growth. Will that happen too? Most of his piece is about the underlying situation being better than the recent numbers indicate (largely to do with the accounting for tax on bonuses again).

That I am not so sure about.

p.s. Perhaps instead of a debate focused on policies, in the run-up to the General Election we could have a live TV event in which the three leaders are watched eating various forms of fast food. It would have to be a Cornish pasty for Dave, of course.

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

As it appears to be such a defining event, I have finally got around to watching the Sky News video of watching Ed eating a bacon sandwich. It just looks like someone eating - he's not doing it with his mouth open; he's not obviously slavering. Have I missed something?

It's wasn't bad tv it looked bad when it was captured in a photo... The furore around it is juvenile nonsense from the usual suspects

I concede he doesn't look at his most dignified, but people eating generally don't. Nevertheless, we all have to eat ...

One or two of the "anyone but Ed" fan club out in force this morning. Not eating a bacon sandwich well is no worse than riding huskies at the North Pole or going to a Cornish theme park with your wife and entourage.

It doesn't disqualify you from being a good or bad Prime Minister. I'm still waiting for the meat and drink of Labour policies in key areas (as I am for Conservative and LD policies). If all we pass judgement on is how a man eats a sandwich, we're in a much worse shape than I imagined.

As for the attacks on Mike's comments about the LD switchers, again, it's a point OGH has made for the past four years. A significant chunk (33-40%) of the 2010 LD vote went back to Labour and is still there. It shouldn't be forgotten that another third went to the Conservatives and UKIP and that was evident in the last ICM poll.

All we have for "evidence" is local votes in places like Carshalton, Sutton, Cheltenham and a few other LD strongholds which suggest those who have long voted LD tactically in these areas are still doing so. There's also plenty of evidence the 2010 LD vote in hundreds of constituencies has disintegrated and all other parties will benefit.

Hmm Someone disagrees with OGH and its an attack, that's an interesting point of view