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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While Scottish athletes flourish in the Glasgow games there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners
In August 2013 there was a sensational poll by the Northumberland-based Panelbase that had YES 1% ahead. Although the survey had been commissioned by the SNP the firm is the regular pollster in Scotland for the Sunday Times which added credence to its findings
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All supplementary questions show swings to Dave (net 6 in approval ratings) and the govt on the economy with tied at 45% on whether it's being managed well.
For a little light relief, this latest "victory for Eck" is facing challenges over on that website which cannot be named.....
Will Labour be rattled? You bet they will ...... that huge lead has all but gone!
Will successful Commonwealth games make it more likely Scots will vote for independence? Scot subsample: Yes: 22, No: 9, no diff:60.
And then the chippy Scot who cheers an English loss:
Imagine the last UK team in a competition is England would you want them to: (Scottish subsample):
Win: 53
Lose: 11
No difference: 30
Notably the English support for a Scottish loss is around half that....
Mr and Mrs David Herdson are on honeymoon ....
50 hours
What could possibly go wrong...
Oh, wait...
Blair, till I realised he was a Snake oil salesman
This is also strange
@politicshome: Several female Conservative MPs have urged the party not to focus attacks on Ed Miliband’s image. http://t.co/OBFNhncVlq
Ed Miliband has decided to focus attacks on Ed Milband's image.
Is it really as clear as that? The gap for all respondents has a No lead down to 7 (8 excluding DKs). From the previous Panelbase poll the gap has dropped by 4. There are 7 weeks to go. There could still be time for a change, what if there really is a "shy SNP vote" similar to 2011? What if the lazy Labour voters are less motivated to bother to go and vote?
That's why I have hired several image consultants...
Next time he gives a speech anywhere except a bland conference room, the first question will be "why this photo op?"
All the way to the election
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2706740/NUTS-AND-BOLT.html
If the Tories had produced a campaign saying those things, they would have been pilloried.
Now Ed has done it himself, all bets are off
One of the best arguments in favour of a constitutional monarchy is to split showbiz and glamour from politics. While the royal family wear expensive, shiny things and appear in glossy magazines, we elect quietly, effective people to run the country.
Sadly it doesn't seem to work out that way. Blair, Cameron and Clegg are the Hello generation of politicians.
I guess we can expect more airbrushed photos of Cameron.
I'm glad to see someone else saw what seemed the salient fact re the poll - that the No lead has continued to drop to a point where only a 4 percentage swing is needed for Yes to win. OK, just one more point on a graph with a fair MoE, so I'm not reading much into it. Still, it is interesting, as we are not even past the indyref armistice during hols and Commonwealth Games yet. And yes, the higher turnout for Yes will be increasingly important.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/jan/07/david-cameron-campaign-poster-rumour
I find it curious that earlier in the week when YouGov and Ashcroft showed big Labour leads some people on here were claiming the polls wouldn't be reliable because of holidays and we should wait until the Autumn and discount any polls before then.
A couple of "favourable" (translates as pro-Conservative and anti-Labour or anti-UKIP) polls later and every poll needs to be micro-analysed and accepted as the very incarnation of Truth itself.
Yeah right...the weather's nice, holiday time is here and people are feeling better disposed towards almost everything (except Gatwick Airport baggage handlers).
As isam has said, there's nothing wrong with hiring a voice coach, I thought that's what a certain Margaret Thatcher did.
Glad it's a shade cooler today.
F1: Sky have helpfully confirmed Hamilton will start from the pitlane:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/12472/9395787/lewis-hamilton-will-start-the-hungarian-gp-from-the-pitlane-after-qualifying-fire
This is a significant disadvantage as by the time he catches the field they'll already be moving and will make overtaking much harder than at a standing start.
He's also had to change his engine, so he must be pretty near the limit now, which means he'll start getting engine penalties almost certainly before Rosberg (10 places, I think, for exceeding the season engine limit).
On topic my 17 years old daughter is very prominent in a face book photo used on the BT website. She has been very disturbed to be the recipient of a lot of abusive posts as a result. Some are obscene, most just unpleasant abuse, none that we have been able to detect from people who actually know her.
This sort of conduct is a problem that the SNP and Yes campaigns have consistently underestimated. Who on earth would want to live in a country run or even influenced by prats like that? It really puts people off. Not my daughter though. She will be canvassing on alternate days this week. I will be doing my best to join her but my inbox is frightening.
Jim was a fine man, poor PM but held off the loony fringe better than Foot, and was very much like Major in the 'no bitterness' stakes'
Smith was a dreadful politician, seemed a decent fellow, not a patch on Gould who he destroyed in the leadership election. The 92 shadow budget was idiocy incarnate, and he would have struggled to get a landslide in 97 IMO, although he would clearly have won at a canter an 05 type majority
See http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/CON-LAB-BATTLEGROUND-JULY-2014-FULL-TABLES.pdf
NO voicecoach will satisfactorily sort out Miliband's voice.
As important are the Tory-Kipper deserters and whether they come home to defend the right from the march of the left.
You can tell by looking who the people saying it are that it's all about an agenda rather than actual debate
I'm sorry to hear of the deranged messages she's been receiving. Glad she sounds like a sensible young lady who's not letting it put her off.
That, and he is hamstrung by Balls and Harman. One he could and should get rid of, and one he is stuck with,
I agree those voters are vital, but if they live in the south west of England, they are more use to Cameron than to Miliband.
Edited extra bit: [to clarify] I said at the time, and still think, judging politicians by such silly photo ops is daft. However, you can't then claim to not be interested in them when you clearly are without looking not only hypocritical but also as if you think voters are bloody stupid.
Flying for a photo with Obama on Monday (missing the Ukraine/Gaza statement in the Commons) and then claiming you don't care about photo ops is treating voters like morons.
He's just rubbish. Our next PM, total rubbish. With a hidden agenda.
He says:
"But £95bn is still a big number, and is a lot bigger than the OBR expected when it published its first forecast alongside Osborne’s first budget, back in June 2010, when it predicted a deficit of only £37bn for this year. Doesn’t this tell us that the critics are right, and that the chancellor has soft-pedalled on austerity, kicking the can down the road?
No. If we take public spending, which is where the chancellor gets it in the next from his right-wing critics, the striking thing is not that that spending has been relaxed but that it has been tightened – cut – relative to the 2010 plans.
According to those plans, the government intended to spend £722bn in the 2013-14 fiscal year, that one that ended this spring. In fact it spent £714bn.
Spending has been lower each year than set out then. Public sector current spending was originally intended to be £679bn in 2013-14. In fact it was £668bn. Unusually, for any government, spending has come in comfortably within budget. There has been no slippage."
So Avery is largely right. Osborne, with a lot of help from Danny Alexander, has been astonishingly successful in controlling public spending. He has also refused to panic when the tax receipts that faster growth ought to have delivered did not arrive and cut further. The result should be a rapidly improving financial situation as we play catch up with growth. Will that happen too? Most of his piece is about the underlying situation being better than the recent numbers indicate (largely to do with the accounting for tax on bonuses again).
That I am not so sure about.
It doesn't disqualify you from being a good or bad Prime Minister. I'm still waiting for the meat and drink of Labour policies in key areas (as I am for Conservative and LD policies). If all we pass judgement on is how a man eats a sandwich, we're in a much worse shape than I imagined.
As for the attacks on Mike's comments about the LD switchers, again, it's a point OGH has made for the past four years. A significant chunk (33-40%) of the 2010 LD vote went back to Labour and is still there. It shouldn't be forgotten that another third went to the Conservatives and UKIP and that was evident in the last ICM poll.
All we have for "evidence" is local votes in places like Carshalton, Sutton, Cheltenham and a few other LD strongholds which suggest those who have long voted LD tactically in these areas are still doing so. There's also plenty of evidence the 2010 LD vote in hundreds of constituencies has disintegrated and all other parties will benefit.
Just watch his Xmas tree video.
#CrossoverMonday