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Not much politics on today’s front pages – politicalbetting.com

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  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer on ITV. "The England team show what modern Britain is all about."

    What, utterly straight and male?

    Not very inclusive there, SKS ...

    (My one and only objection to the England team taking the knee is that it seems a slightly 'easy' cause. Given the number of footballers, it is slightly odd that there are no openly gay footballers in the male game. Well, it's not odd at all. https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/no-gay-footballers-in-the-premier-league )
    I suspect the biggest issue is that there would be a media circus around a player who came out. Beyond that, though, I suspect teammates are potentially a bigger issue that knobheads in the crowd. That article fails to mention one of the more illuminating press conferences given by a player:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/jun/12/euro-2012-antonio-cassano-gays
    I appreciate this may be idealistic of me and I suspect the reasons for not coming out are to do with the reaction it would cause

    BUT in reality why should they come out? It is none of my business or anyone else as to whether someone is gay or not. We will know it doesn't matter when none of us care or are interested.
    They shouldn't have to. But perhaps, just perhaps, some would prefer not to be living a lie? Your first line highlights the problem: why should it cause a reaction? They're gay, so what? Why does it matter to the fans and teammates?

    As an example, just look at the way that s** John Fashanu treated his little brother when he bravely came out. He's gone through several levels of shitbaggery: disowning Justin when he came out, only regretting it after Justin took his own life, and then later denying Justin was even gay.

    When the Premier League do try to address the issue, there's a sad reaction:
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/19/sport/lgbt-premier-league-social-intl-spt/index.html

    So yes, whilst it is an individual's choice, the fact that none feel able to come out is very telling, and a sad indictment on footballers, the clubs, and their fans.
    One of the good things about this tournament is the absence of the "WAGS".
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Have I missed the England win bad for Boris thread?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    In 2021 everyone will be a statistician for 15 minutes
    The isage figures are total population, the gov dashboard is 18 and above.
    Does that mean isage are implicitly in favour of vaccinating all children?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,420
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    Anyone thing the Govt talking up 100k cases a week etc is because current modelling has this at top end of worse case scenarios, they are confident that modelling has generally been pessimistic anyway, and it is effectively expectations management. So if cases did top out at 50-60k then the doom-mongers who are currently shrieking about how the govt “won’t release the data because it’s so bad” will look rather silly?

    The government are releasing the data / modelling in the next few days. They are trying to hide it is as much nonsense as Boris is burying the bodies claims......
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    alex_ said:

    Anyone thing the Govt talking up 100k cases a week etc is because current modelling has this at top end of worse case scenarios, they are confident that modelling has generally been pessimistic anyway, and it is effectively expectations management. So if cases did top out at 50-60k then the doom-mongers who are currently shrieking about how the govt “won’t release the data because it’s so bad” will look rather silly?

    Yes. Expectation management. I'll be very surprised if 19 July doesn't happen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    This morning, you know who I feel most sorry for?
    It's not the Danish team. Or the Spanish. Or anyone else who has been knocked out of Euro 2020 unfairly.

    It's my 9 year old daughter.

    She said to me this morning that we're going to finish at least second, and that's really good. And we got to the Semi-finals in 2018! So England are really good.

    She doesn't remember before that. The defeat to Iceland, and the thirty years of agony of watching England.

    My poor child. She's got all this to come. Because normal service will be resumed very shortly I'm sure.......

    Ah, you never know. The victory over Germany might signal a changing of the guard moment, and England might now spend the next five decades sending half-decent German teams out of major competitions while winning them, and enjoying a fiercer rivalry with a smaller closer neighbour. Like Wales, maybe.

    You might as well dream while it's still possible.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    edited July 2021

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    If you want to avoid football go to the Scottish press. The one part of European media not talking about. Bit sad really. Wish nationalism didn’t have to get in the way.

    You can tell from my name i am no nationalist but dont really see why football (perhaps the most mainstream sport that encourages bad habits like cheating ,spitting etc) needs to be plastered all over the media especially in countries that have no team left
    I'd guess that apart from in England and Denmark it's just a medium-importance sports story in most of Europe. Certainly not headline news here in Germany.
    Top story on Bild. Third story on FAZ.
    Third story on the Scotsman website so your original complaint doesn't make much sense.

    The main headline in today's Bild is "Polizei sollte Sushi für Jogis Stars holen" as you can see for yourself:

    https://epaper.bild.de/

    On the TV news it's the first item of sports news, after all the proper news, just before the weather
    Check out the sports news on the Daily https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/
    Some bloke from the home counties checking out the Daily Record sports section to see if they’re producing the required amount of enthusiasm for the England football team is peak something or other.
    Absurd Scottish bitterness about the English football team and absurd English paranoia about Scots' failure to support England are two cheeks of this same arse. Everyone needs to get over themselves.
    You can always depend on Anas to find the spot between those cheeks.


    I think this is the sweet spot. Joking aside, his position is the right one IMHO. Mind you, I am a Scot in England with England bunting on my house, so perhaps I am suffering from some kind of cognitive dissonance.
    I think prog left Scots (which I guess includes me) kinda like Southgate & the England team, but that’s in spite of most of the punditry, a lot of the media, some of the fans and all of the arsehole politicians piggybacking on their success. All of that stuff makes it easy to access the petty atavism that lurks in the hearts of most football fans.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    In 2021 everyone will be a statistician for 15 minutes
    The isage figures are total population, the gov dashboard is 18 and above.
    Does that mean isage are implicitly in favour of vaccinating all children?
    Not as much as they are implicitly in favour of talking down the success of the vaccine rollout.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2021

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    If you want to avoid football go to the Scottish press. The one part of European media not talking about. Bit sad really. Wish nationalism didn’t have to get in the way.

    You can tell from my name i am no nationalist but dont really see why football (perhaps the most mainstream sport that encourages bad habits like cheating ,spitting etc) needs to be plastered all over the media especially in countries that have no team left
    I'd guess that apart from in England and Denmark it's just a medium-importance sports story in most of Europe. Certainly not headline news here in Germany.
    Top story on Bild. Third story on FAZ.
    Third story on the Scotsman website so your original complaint doesn't make much sense.

    The main headline in today's Bild is "Polizei sollte Sushi für Jogis Stars holen" as you can see for yourself:

    https://epaper.bild.de/

    On the TV news it's the first item of sports news, after all the proper news, just before the weather
    Check out the sports news on the Daily https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/
    Some bloke from the home counties checking out the Daily Record sports section to see if they’re producing the required amount of enthusiasm for the England football team is peak something or other.
    Absurd Scottish bitterness about the English football team and absurd English paranoia about Scots' failure to support England are two cheeks of this same arse. Everyone needs to get over themselves.
    You can always depend on Anas to find the spot between those cheeks.


    I think this is the sweet spot. Joking aside, his position is the right one IMHO. Mind you, I am a Scot in England with England bunting on my house, so perhaps I am suffering from some kind of cognitive dissonance.
    I think prog left Scots (which I guess includes me) kinda like Southgate & the England team, but that’s in spite of most of the punditry, a lot of the media, some of the fans and all of the arsehole politicians piggybacking on their success. All of that makes it easy to access the petty atavism that lurks in the hearts of most football fans.
    Limmy gets it

    https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/1412910055687704580
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    tlg86 said:

    Boris in the clear for the Mustique holiday, apparently.

    A good day to bury a whitewash.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    In 2021 everyone will be a statistician for 15 minutes
    The isage figures are total population, the gov dashboard is 18 and above.
    Does that mean isage are implicitly in favour of vaccinating all children?
    I don't know, I was just pointing out the information under the numbers that was written down in front of us.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    If you want to avoid football go to the Scottish press. The one part of European media not talking about. Bit sad really. Wish nationalism didn’t have to get in the way.

    You can tell from my name i am no nationalist but dont really see why football (perhaps the most mainstream sport that encourages bad habits like cheating ,spitting etc) needs to be plastered all over the media especially in countries that have no team left
    I'd guess that apart from in England and Denmark it's just a medium-importance sports story in most of Europe. Certainly not headline news here in Germany.
    Top story on Bild. Third story on FAZ.
    Third story on the Scotsman website so your original complaint doesn't make much sense.

    The main headline in today's Bild is "Polizei sollte Sushi für Jogis Stars holen" as you can see for yourself:

    https://epaper.bild.de/

    On the TV news it's the first item of sports news, after all the proper news, just before the weather
    Check out the sports news on the Daily https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/
    Some bloke from the home counties checking out the Daily Record sports section to see if they’re producing the required amount of enthusiasm for the England football team is peak something or other.
    Absurd Scottish bitterness about the English football team and absurd English paranoia about Scots' failure to support England are two cheeks of this same arse. Everyone needs to get over themselves.
    You can always depend on Anas to find the spot between those cheeks.


    I think this is the sweet spot. Joking aside, his position is the right one IMHO. Mind you, I am a Scot in England with England bunting on my house, so perhaps I am suffering from some kind of cognitive dissonance.
    I think prog left Scots (which I guess includes me) kinda like Southgate & the England team, but that’s in spite of most of the punditry, a lot of the media, some of the fans and all of the arsehole politicians piggybacking on their success. All of that makes it easy to access the petty atavism that lurks in the hearts of most football fans.
    Limmy gets it

    https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/1412910055687704580
    Limmy’s Euros tweeting has been even more awesome than usual.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    Can anyone help me with a query re the strips teams are wearing at this tournament? I'm just mildly curious; is each team designated as 'home' and 'away', and do the 'away' team have to wear their away strip regardless of any colour clashes?

    There's been a few matches where one of the teams seems to have worn their away strip when there's been no need. Spain and Italy, for example, saw Spain in their all white away strip, but their normal strip of red wouldn't have clashed with Italy's blue strip.

    And because Spain were in all white, Italy didn't have their usual blue top, white shorts combo but went with blue top and navy shorts.

    Have I got this right? Seems a bit daft for teams to wear their away strip when there's no real need.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,584

    I
    kjh said:

    pm215 said:

    kjh said:

    I appreciate this may be idealistic of me and I suspect the reasons for not coming out are to do with the reaction it would cause

    BUT in reality why should they come out? It is none of my business or anyone else as to whether someone is gay or not. We will know it doesn't matter when none of us care or are interested.

    Indeed, for any individual footballer it is and should be entirely their own choice whether to come out publicly, be 'out' in their personal life but simply never mention it in interviews, or remain closeted. But if we look at an entire group of people and observe that *none* of them are publicly known to be gay, we should strongly suspect that there is an underlying cultural/social/structural problem worth trying to address (for the benefit of the people who have to live and work within that flawed system).

    (In this way it's reminiscent of the "Bechdel Test" for films which looks for conversations between female characters about something other than a man -- many great films fail the test and it doesn't make them bad films; but if almost the entire output of the hollywood movie-making system is failing the test, we should presume an underlying systematic issue.)
    Agree 100%.

    At the moment people don't come out because other people care, in an unpleasant way. In the future it would be nice if people don't come out in public because people don't care in a totally disinterested way.
    Do people care in an unpleasant way? Not seen much evidence of that for some time.

    On the earlier point though, is football genuinely full of closeted gay people? It's not necessarily the case that gay people are evenly distributed through the population. If we accept that gay people are overrrepresented in, say, showbusiness, it's not inconceivable that they could be underrepresented in other fields.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    dixiedean said:

    Boris is rather a lucky general again....success is nothing to do with him, but never hurts for a country to be excited about some sporting success.

    "Success is nothing to do with him", au contraire.

    Who was wearing the number 10 shirt today? What number was on the shirt worn by the player that won Englan'd's penalty? I rest my circumstantial, but nonetheless compelling case.
    It is the PM wot won it. Even with a tie under his shirt. QED.
    And he didn't dive. And immediately sacked Hancock. Etc., etc.
    Not convince the penalty was a penalty. The slo mo makes me think not....
    So what if it wasn't? The Dutch referee thought it was and VAR was not compelled to overturn it, which is all that matters.
    It's a pity to win by a debatable penalty, especially when we're the first to complain when it happens to us. But although I was supporting Denmark because of my background, the result is a fair reflection of the overall game.
    Norman Tebbit will be having a quiet word...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    In 2021 everyone will be a statistician for 15 minutes
    The isage figures are total population, the gov dashboard is 18 and above.
    Does that mean isage are implicitly in favour of vaccinating all children?
    I don't know, I was just pointing out the information under the numbers that was written down in front of us.
    Guardian have deliberately switched to reporting % of population. It’s so transparent. No shame at all that only a couple of month’s ago we were prioritising vaccinating our own population over the rest of the world.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    TOPPING said:

    Cookie said:

    kamski said:

    Rishi says they are ‘literally’ throwing the kitchen sink at helping people get back into work. Don’t think that’s going to help tbh.

    Jeez. And his school cost how much per term?
    What's next? `pacifically' in place of 'specifically'?
    Country is literally going to the dogs.
    Pacifically instead of specifically is a mistake.

    Using "literally" in this way is the pretty much the same as using "really" in the same way. "We are really throwing the kitchen sink at this". Does anybody complain that they aren't "really"?

    But because really has been completely absorbed as just an intensifier, literally works better as an attempt to revive a dead metaphor like "throwing the kitchen sink". Therefore it's better in this kind of example.
    No, no, no, no, no.
    You can't just arbitrarily decide to use a word to use the opposite of what it means.

    Like everyone else, I enjoy hearing the word 'literally' being misused, but it deserves mockery when it is. You can't just say 'oh, it's all right, he actually meant figuratively'. The sentence would have worked far better had he just left the word out.
    And if we allow literally to be used in this way we will have no word for when we are, literally, throwing a kitchen sink at something.

    This misuse of literally is years, maybe decades old now, but other more creative uses are also creeping into the language. I particularly enjoy the word 'literally' used where the listener could be in no possible doubt that you were speaking literally, as in "it's literally a nice light grey colour". The kids are also using literally to mean 'FFS' - as in: "Mum! Literally! Those are my sister's socks!", or just to mean 'er', or '...', as in for example "I was just, literally, ..."
    At least we seem to be immune to the Americanism “I could care less”.
    "Lucked out" was always one I needed to run over in my mind before I could see which way round it was.
    I struggle with 'straight off the bat'.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    So why are the government suggesting 50k new cases a day? 100k new cases a day? It might be slowing its growth as a lagging factor from what we have been doing, what England is about to do will explode the rates according to them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    If you want to avoid football go to the Scottish press. The one part of European media not talking about. Bit sad really. Wish nationalism didn’t have to get in the way.

    You can tell from my name i am no nationalist but dont really see why football (perhaps the most mainstream sport that encourages bad habits like cheating ,spitting etc) needs to be plastered all over the media especially in countries that have no team left
    I'd guess that apart from in England and Denmark it's just a medium-importance sports story in most of Europe. Certainly not headline news here in Germany.
    Top story on Bild. Third story on FAZ.
    Third story on the Scotsman website so your original complaint doesn't make much sense.

    The main headline in today's Bild is "Polizei sollte Sushi für Jogis Stars holen" as you can see for yourself:

    https://epaper.bild.de/

    On the TV news it's the first item of sports news, after all the proper news, just before the weather
    Check out the sports news on the Daily https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/
    Some bloke from the home counties checking out the Daily Record sports section to see if they’re producing the required amount of enthusiasm for the England football team is peak something or other.
    Absurd Scottish bitterness about the English football team and absurd English paranoia about Scots' failure to support England are two cheeks of this same arse. Everyone needs to get over themselves.
    You can always depend on Anas to find the spot between those cheeks.


    I think this is the sweet spot. Joking aside, his position is the right one IMHO. Mind you, I am a Scot in England with England bunting on my house, so perhaps I am suffering from some kind of cognitive dissonance.
    I think prog left Scots (which I guess includes me) kinda like Southgate & the England team, but that’s in spite of most of the punditry, a lot of the media, some of the fans and all of the arsehole politicians piggybacking on their success. All of that makes it easy to access the petty atavism that lurks in the hearts of most football fans.
    Limmy gets it

    https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/1412910055687704580
    "After this one."

    Very good!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792
    TOPPING said:

    Now that the 100k new cases a day figure has emerged, are we expecting any polling on how the people of England feel about that? I am discounting the strident UNLOCK NOW IT IS RISK FREE voices on here as I suspect you aren't representative.

    Ordinarily, football or not, the superspreader events in pubs across the country for the fitba would have been something people would avoid like the plague. Perhaps Monday's pre-announcement that they will make a decision next Monday as to whether to allow the following Monday what is already happening was there specifically to give people permission to bin the restrictions now.

    As the plan is let her rip, may as well get on with it.

    We're fine. Thanks for asking. We'll make our own minds up.
    Wasn't asking you love. Was asking about the people not posting RISK FREE slogans on here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    Have I missed the England win bad for Boris thread?

    If I may...

    From a sporting perspective, the consensus seems to be England 'deserved the win', despite 120 minutes in which they were unable to score from open play... One own goal and the penalty that wasn't. They looked the better team, but the better team scores more goals is kinda the point.

    From a political perspective, I have seen lots of people including some politicians, saying how much 'the country' needed this, and how great it is for 'the country'

    The dilemma for BoZo is if anyone bothers to specify which country.

    As Minister for the Union, this is a disaster.

    As poster boy for Little England, this is a great win.

    You're welcome...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    Let's not get carried away.
    Oh, you already have.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    kamski said:

    Jonathan said:

    If you want to avoid football go to the Scottish press. The one part of European media not talking about. Bit sad really. Wish nationalism didn’t have to get in the way.

    You can tell from my name i am no nationalist but dont really see why football (perhaps the most mainstream sport that encourages bad habits like cheating ,spitting etc) needs to be plastered all over the media especially in countries that have no team left
    I'd guess that apart from in England and Denmark it's just a medium-importance sports story in most of Europe. Certainly not headline news here in Germany.
    Top story on Bild. Third story on FAZ.
    Third story on the Scotsman website so your original complaint doesn't make much sense.

    The main headline in today's Bild is "Polizei sollte Sushi für Jogis Stars holen" as you can see for yourself:

    https://epaper.bild.de/

    On the TV news it's the first item of sports news, after all the proper news, just before the weather
    Check out the sports news on the Daily https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/
    Some bloke from the home counties checking out the Daily Record sports section to see if they’re producing the required amount of enthusiasm for the England football team is peak something or other.
    Absurd Scottish bitterness about the English football team and absurd English paranoia about Scots' failure to support England are two cheeks of this same arse. Everyone needs to get over themselves.
    You can always depend on Anas to find the spot between those cheeks.


    I think this is the sweet spot. Joking aside, his position is the right one IMHO. Mind you, I am a Scot in England with England bunting on my house, so perhaps I am suffering from some kind of cognitive dissonance.
    I'm English in Scotland treating the tournament with the exact same level of meh as I used to when I lived in England.

    Will fabulous if England win to reset the 30 years of hurt narrative if nothing else. Sport that interests me remains F1 and Indycar.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I have the hangover from hell ffs

    Sympathies

    I (and a lot of the others in the company) am making sure I have Monday off

    Whichever way it goes there will be lots of alcohol consumed in a busy pub

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    F1: 10 days until the first F1 sprint race.

    We shall see if it's as stupid as I thought.

    https://twitter.com/F1/status/1412820455761711106
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Xtrain said:

    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer on ITV. "The England team show what modern Britain is all about."

    What, utterly straight and male?

    Not very inclusive there, SKS ...

    (My one and only objection to the England team taking the knee is that it seems a slightly 'easy' cause. Given the number of footballers, it is slightly odd that there are no openly gay footballers in the male game. Well, it's not odd at all. https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/no-gay-footballers-in-the-premier-league )
    I suspect the biggest issue is that there would be a media circus around a player who came out. Beyond that, though, I suspect teammates are potentially a bigger issue that knobheads in the crowd. That article fails to mention one of the more illuminating press conferences given by a player:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/jun/12/euro-2012-antonio-cassano-gays
    I appreciate this may be idealistic of me and I suspect the reasons for not coming out are to do with the reaction it would cause

    BUT in reality why should they come out? It is none of my business or anyone else as to whether someone is gay or not. We will know it doesn't matter when none of us care or are interested.
    They shouldn't have to. But perhaps, just perhaps, some would prefer not to be living a lie? Your first line highlights the problem: why should it cause a reaction? They're gay, so what? Why does it matter to the fans and teammates?

    As an example, just look at the way that s** John Fashanu treated his little brother when he bravely came out. He's gone through several levels of shitbaggery: disowning Justin when he came out, only regretting it after Justin took his own life, and then later denying Justin was even gay.

    When the Premier League do try to address the issue, there's a sad reaction:
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/19/sport/lgbt-premier-league-social-intl-spt/index.html

    So yes, whilst it is an individual's choice, the fact that none feel able to come out is very telling, and a sad indictment on footballers, the clubs, and their fans.
    One of the good things about this tournament is the absence of the "WAGS".
    This.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    F1: 10 days until the first F1 sprint race.

    We shall see if it's as stupid as I thought.

    https://twitter.com/F1/status/1412820455761711106

    Much more stupid surely. I understand the concept. Short race, lots of action, raah. Except that the likes of Max and Lewis are likely to not want to prang their cars too hard which makes a bit of a procession up front. Hopefully we get midfielders making a burst through the pack to make for an interesting grid in the main race.

    Either way, it will be fun!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    In 2021 everyone will be a statistician for 15 minutes
    The isage figures are total population, the gov dashboard is 18 and above.
    Anyway, he's wrong

    In 2021, 86.4575656% of people will be a statistician for x minutes, where x is a distribution defined.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    edited July 2021

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    Total population (so includes U18)
    Thank you but misleading
    It's not misleading. The percentage dosed of the whole population is more important from an epidemiological point of view, while the percentage dose of the adult population is more important for judging how well the vaccine rollout is going. They are different answers to different questions and it's not accurate to say it is misleading to look at one rather than the other, unless one figure is misrepresented as being the other, which is not the case here.
    2 figures with different meanings.

    It is misleading if either the denominators (all / adults) are swapped around, or if the implications are not explained.

    On the one hand under 18s have a much less serious impact from Covid than say over 50s, so to pretend that that 22% of the pop represents a massive vulnerability, or eg to use it implicitly in conjunction with previous experience of hospitalisation or deaths as a "omigod look!" red flag, is misleading.

    On the other to pretend that there is no vulnerability in that group is also questionable.

    I think the most important current numbers is that double vacced amongst the nine vulnerable cohorts is now at 90%-99%.

    And combined with 1st and 2nd dose numbers by 19 July that some places will never achieve, suggests that it is time to move forward again - taking a rain-check on the 12th or whenever it will be.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    This morning, you know who I feel most sorry for?
    It's not the Danish team. Or the Spanish. Or anyone else who has been knocked out of Euro 2020 unfairly.

    It's my 9 year old daughter.

    She said to me this morning that we're going to finish at least second, and that's really good. And we got to the Semi-finals in 2018! So England are really good.

    She doesn't remember before that. The defeat to Iceland, and the thirty years of agony of watching England.

    My poor child. She's got all this to come. Because normal service will be resumed very shortly I'm sure.......

    Yes, it will be painful for them. My 8yo son last night was saying 3 minutes from the end of extra time that "England have won". I was going crazy at him not to jinx it. He thought I was the one that was crazy! Little does he know.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited July 2021

    F1: 10 days until the first F1 sprint race.

    We shall see if it's as stupid as I thought.

    https://twitter.com/F1/status/1412820455761711106

    Much more stupid surely. I understand the concept. Short race, lots of action, raah. Except that the likes of Max and Lewis are likely to not want to prang their cars too hard which makes a bit of a procession up front. Hopefully we get midfielders making a burst through the pack to make for an interesting grid in the main race.

    Either way, it will be fun!
    Annoyingly, they’re not allowing the teams a new engine, so they’ll be conserving as much as sprinting.

    The best hope for the sprint race itself, is that one or two of the top drivers start out of position and have to fight through. The best hope for the main race, is that one or two good cars don’t finish the sprint race, and have to start at the back on Sunday.

    The most likely scenario is that Lewis, Max and Valtteri qualify as the top three, run the sprint race in order, to start at the front for the main race.

    I think a little rain dance is probably in order next week.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    I appear to have got some dust in my eye...

    https://twitter.com/BBCMOTD/status/1413022953344847878?s=20
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    So why are the government suggesting 50k new cases a day? 100k new cases a day? It might be slowing its growth as a lagging factor from what we have been doing, what England is about to do will explode the rates according to them.
    I'd say expectation management, but that perhaps they overegged the comms.

    But then they know that the media are nearly all going to be shitheads, and that all the lobby groups will go on saying exactly what they have been saying before, amounting to "thank-you, but we demand even more money for our client-group."

    /cynic

    BTW I went to bed before extra time. It's only football.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    In 2021 everyone will be a statistician for 15 minutes
    The isage figures are total population, the gov dashboard is 18 and above.
    Does that mean isage are implicitly in favour of vaccinating all children?
    I don't know, I was just pointing out the information under the numbers that was written down in front of us.
    Guardian have deliberately switched to reporting % of population. It’s so transparent. No shame at all that only a couple of month’s ago we were prioritising vaccinating our own population over the rest of the world.
    Do you have a previous example of that embedded counter with % adults?

    (Genuinely interested - I haven't seen one)



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    Total population (so includes U18)
    Thank you but misleading
    It's not misleading. The percentage dosed of the whole population is more important from an epidemiological point of view, while the percentage dose of the adult population is more important for judging how well the vaccine rollout is going. They are different answers to different questions and it's not accurate to say it is misleading to look at one rather than the other, unless one figure is misrepresented as being the other, which is not the case here.
    2 figures with different meanings.

    It is misleading if either the denominators (all / adults) are swapped around, or if the implications are not explained.

    On the one hand under 18s have a much less serious impact from Covid than say over 50s, so to pretend that that 22% of the pop represents a massive vulnerability, or eg to use it implicitly in conjunction with previous experience of hospitalisation or deaths as a "omigod look!" red flag, is misleading.

    On the other to pretend that there is no vulnerability in that group is also questionable.

    I think the most important current numbers is that double vacced amongst the nine vulnerable cohorts is now at 90%-99%.

    And combined with 1st and 2nd dose numbers by 19 July that some places will never achieve, suggests that it is time to move forward again - taking a rain-check on the 12th or whenever it will be.
    Death rates, for England,

    00 04 10 0.01%
    05 09 6 0.01%
    10 14 13 0.01%
    15 19 34 0.03%
    20 24 60 0.05%
    25 29 121 0.11%
    30 34 215 0.19%
    35 39 364 0.32%
    40 44 582 0.52%
    45 49 1142 1.01%
    50 54 2024 1.79%
    55 59 3312 2.94%
    60 64 3903 3.46%
    65 69 8130 7.21%
    70 74 11094 9.84%
    75 79 15370 13.63%
    80 84 20465 18.15%
    85 89 22308 19.78%
    90+ 23624 20.95%
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    TOPPING said:

    Cookie said:

    kamski said:

    Rishi says they are ‘literally’ throwing the kitchen sink at helping people get back into work. Don’t think that’s going to help tbh.

    Jeez. And his school cost how much per term?
    What's next? `pacifically' in place of 'specifically'?
    Country is literally going to the dogs.
    Pacifically instead of specifically is a mistake.

    Using "literally" in this way is the pretty much the same as using "really" in the same way. "We are really throwing the kitchen sink at this". Does anybody complain that they aren't "really"?

    But because really has been completely absorbed as just an intensifier, literally works better as an attempt to revive a dead metaphor like "throwing the kitchen sink". Therefore it's better in this kind of example.
    No, no, no, no, no.
    You can't just arbitrarily decide to use a word to use the opposite of what it means.

    Like everyone else, I enjoy hearing the word 'literally' being misused, but it deserves mockery when it is. You can't just say 'oh, it's all right, he actually meant figuratively'. The sentence would have worked far better had he just left the word out.
    And if we allow literally to be used in this way we will have no word for when we are, literally, throwing a kitchen sink at something.

    This misuse of literally is years, maybe decades old now, but other more creative uses are also creeping into the language. I particularly enjoy the word 'literally' used where the listener could be in no possible doubt that you were speaking literally, as in "it's literally a nice light grey colour". The kids are also using literally to mean 'FFS' - as in: "Mum! Literally! Those are my sister's socks!", or just to mean 'er', or '...', as in for example "I was just, literally, ..."
    At least we seem to be immune to the Americanism “I could care less”.
    "Lucked out" was always one I needed to run over in my mind before I could see which way round it was.
    I struggle with 'straight off the bat'.
    'Lucked out' is so close to being 'out of luck' that I could never use it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    edited July 2021
    gealbhan said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    This group of “scientists” have gone completely bonkers, what they’re saying isn’t close to being bourne out by the evidence and statistics, but they’re becoming rediculously shrill in their statements.

    They also don’t have to balance the real-world costs of keeping the restrictions in place, with furlough, unemployment, business failures and crashing tax revenues weighing heavily on the minds of those actually making the decisions.

    It’s clear there will be no overwhelming of the health system, therefore there’s no need for the restrictions to remain. Domestically at least, in the U.K. the pandemic is over.
    Ha ha ha 😀

    They are not talking about overwhelming of NHS now, they are saying

    “exponential growth of COVID-19 will likely leave hundreds of thousands with long-term illness and disability".

    "This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come."

    “the strategy "provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants".

    “"The government has made a deliberate choice to expose children to mass infection, rather than protect them in schools or vaccinate them. This is unethical and unacceptable. Our young have already suffered so much in the past year, and are now being condemned to suffer the consequences of this dangerous experiment."

    Scientists are bonkers are they?

    Remember the PB maxim “the only right scientist is the one telling you what you want to hear”. 😀
    These are the authors:

    Deepti Gurdasani
    John Drury
    Trisha Greenhalgh
    Stephen Griffin
    Zubaida Haque
    Zoë Hyde
    Aris Katzourakis
    Martin McKee
    Susan Michie
    Christina Pagel
    Stephen Reicher
    Alice Roberts
    Robert West
    Christian Yates
    Hisham Ziauddeen

    Reading the letter, I think some of their points lake substance or support - for example the point about new variants is based on "preliminary modelling data", and we know that other places will never get close to the favourable circs we have already.

    Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young. We do not know whether this will even happen, so no need to react to that yet. They should have nuanced that with a discussion of severity.

    I think that this is not really true - a premature reaction: On July 19, 2021—branded as Freedom Day—almost all restrictions are set to end. We know that they aren't all going to end. Even on masks on transport, Mayor Sadiq has the option of enforcing it.

    And the claims about "hundreds of thousands will be left with etc etc etc" do not seem to me to be supported by the known data.

    Imo not very credible commentary.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    Total population (so includes U18)
    Thank you but misleading
    It's not misleading. The percentage dosed of the whole population is more important from an epidemiological point of view, while the percentage dose of the adult population is more important for judging how well the vaccine rollout is going. They are different answers to different questions and it's not accurate to say it is misleading to look at one rather than the other, unless one figure is misrepresented as being the other, which is not the case here.
    2 figures with different meanings.

    It is misleading if either the denominators (all / adults) are swapped around, or if the implications are not explained.

    On the one hand under 18s have a much less serious impact from Covid than say over 50s, so to pretend that that 22% of the pop represents a massive vulnerability, or eg to use it implicitly in conjunction with previous experience of hospitalisation or deaths as a "omigod look!" red flag, is misleading.

    On the other to pretend that there is no vulnerability in that group is also questionable.

    I think the most important current numbers is that double vacced amongst the nine vulnerable cohorts is now at 90%-99%.

    And combined with 1st and 2nd dose numbers by 19 July that some places will never achieve, suggests that it is time to move forward again - taking a rain-check on the 12th or whenever it will be.
    Death rates, for England,

    00 04 10 0.01%
    05 09 6 0.01%
    10 14 13 0.01%
    15 19 34 0.03%
    20 24 60 0.05%
    25 29 121 0.11%
    30 34 215 0.19%
    35 39 364 0.32%
    40 44 582 0.52%
    45 49 1142 1.01%
    50 54 2024 1.79%
    55 59 3312 2.94%
    60 64 3903 3.46%
    65 69 8130 7.21%
    70 74 11094 9.84%
    75 79 15370 13.63%
    80 84 20465 18.15%
    85 89 22308 19.78%
    90+ 23624 20.95%
    Admission rates for England

    0 to 5 3,152 0.78%
    6 to 17 3,090 0.77%
    18 to 64 146,825 36.46%
    65 to 84 165,610 41.13%
    85+ 83,977 20.86%
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    Anyone thing the Govt talking up 100k cases a week etc is because current modelling has this at top end of worse case scenarios, they are confident that modelling has generally been pessimistic anyway, and it is effectively expectations management. So if cases did top out at 50-60k then the doom-mongers who are currently shrieking about how the govt “won’t release the data because it’s so bad” will look rather silly?

    If I'm being cynical I can see them wanting to make the political-doctor groups (eg Every Doctor UK and similar) trip over their own outrage.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701

    Xtrain said:

    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer on ITV. "The England team show what modern Britain is all about."

    What, utterly straight and male?

    Not very inclusive there, SKS ...

    (My one and only objection to the England team taking the knee is that it seems a slightly 'easy' cause. Given the number of footballers, it is slightly odd that there are no openly gay footballers in the male game. Well, it's not odd at all. https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/no-gay-footballers-in-the-premier-league )
    I suspect the biggest issue is that there would be a media circus around a player who came out. Beyond that, though, I suspect teammates are potentially a bigger issue that knobheads in the crowd. That article fails to mention one of the more illuminating press conferences given by a player:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/jun/12/euro-2012-antonio-cassano-gays
    I appreciate this may be idealistic of me and I suspect the reasons for not coming out are to do with the reaction it would cause

    BUT in reality why should they come out? It is none of my business or anyone else as to whether someone is gay or not. We will know it doesn't matter when none of us care or are interested.
    They shouldn't have to. But perhaps, just perhaps, some would prefer not to be living a lie? Your first line highlights the problem: why should it cause a reaction? They're gay, so what? Why does it matter to the fans and teammates?

    As an example, just look at the way that s** John Fashanu treated his little brother when he bravely came out. He's gone through several levels of shitbaggery: disowning Justin when he came out, only regretting it after Justin took his own life, and then later denying Justin was even gay.

    When the Premier League do try to address the issue, there's a sad reaction:
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/19/sport/lgbt-premier-league-social-intl-spt/index.html

    So yes, whilst it is an individual's choice, the fact that none feel able to come out is very telling, and a sad indictment on footballers, the clubs, and their fans.
    One of the good things about this tournament is the absence of the "WAGS".
    This.
    I wonder if SeanT would agree, were he still with us.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I appear to have got some dust in my eye...

    https://twitter.com/BBCMOTD/status/1413022953344847878?s=20

    Wonderful, just wonderful
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599

    Let's not get carried away.
    Oh, you already have.


    The Beatles? Who are they?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MattW said:

    gealbhan said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    This group of “scientists” have gone completely bonkers, what they’re saying isn’t close to being bourne out by the evidence and statistics, but they’re becoming rediculously shrill in their statements.

    They also don’t have to balance the real-world costs of keeping the restrictions in place, with furlough, unemployment, business failures and crashing tax revenues weighing heavily on the minds of those actually making the decisions.

    It’s clear there will be no overwhelming of the health system, therefore there’s no need for the restrictions to remain. Domestically at least, in the U.K. the pandemic is over.
    Ha ha ha 😀

    They are not talking about overwhelming of NHS now, they are saying

    “exponential growth of COVID-19 will likely leave hundreds of thousands with long-term illness and disability".

    "This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come."

    “the strategy "provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants".

    “"The government has made a deliberate choice to expose children to mass infection, rather than protect them in schools or vaccinate them. This is unethical and unacceptable. Our young have already suffered so much in the past year, and are now being condemned to suffer the consequences of this dangerous experiment."

    Scientists are bonkers are they?

    Remember the PB maxim “the only right scientist is the one telling you what you want to hear”. 😀
    These are the authors:

    Deepti Gurdasani
    John Drury
    Trisha Greenhalgh
    Stephen Griffin
    Zubaida Haque
    Zoë Hyde
    Aris Katzourakis
    Martin McKee
    Susan Michie
    Christina Pagel
    Stephen Reicher
    Alice Roberts
    Robert West
    Christian Yates
    Hisham Ziauddeen

    Reading the letter, I think some of their points lake substance or support - for example the point about new variants is based on "preliminary modelling data", and we know that other places will never get close to the favourable circs we have already.

    Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young. We do not know whether this will even happen, so no need to react to that yet. They should have nuanced that with a discussion of severity.

    I think that this is not really true - a premature reaction: On July 19, 2021—branded as Freedom Day—almost all restrictions are set to end. We know that they aren't all going to end. Even on masks on transport, Mayor Sadiq has the option of enforcing it.

    And the claims about "hundreds of thousands will be left with etc etc etc" do not seem to me to be supported by the known data.

    Imo not very credible commentary.
    So basically the usual ISage crowd with a few international names chucked in. Of course the Guardian focussed on the International names...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    edited July 2021

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    Total population (so includes U18)
    Thank you but misleading
    It's not misleading. The percentage dosed of the whole population is more important from an epidemiological point of view, while the percentage dose of the adult population is more important for judging how well the vaccine rollout is going. They are different answers to different questions and it's not accurate to say it is misleading to look at one rather than the other, unless one figure is misrepresented as being the other, which is not the case here.
    2 figures with different meanings.

    It is misleading if either the denominators (all / adults) are swapped around, or if the implications are not explained.

    On the one hand under 18s have a much less serious impact from Covid than say over 50s, so to pretend that that 22% of the pop represents a massive vulnerability, or eg to use it implicitly in conjunction with previous experience of hospitalisation or deaths as a "omigod look!" red flag, is misleading.

    On the other to pretend that there is no vulnerability in that group is also questionable.

    I think the most important current numbers is that double vacced amongst the nine vulnerable cohorts is now at 90%-99%.

    And combined with 1st and 2nd dose numbers by 19 July that some places will never achieve, suggests that it is time to move forward again - taking a rain-check on the 12th or whenever it will be.
    Death rates, for England,

    00 04 10 0.01%
    05 09 6 0.01%
    10 14 13 0.01%
    15 19 34 0.03%
    20 24 60 0.05%
    25 29 121 0.11%
    30 34 215 0.19%
    35 39 364 0.32%
    40 44 582 0.52%
    45 49 1142 1.01%
    50 54 2024 1.79%
    55 59 3312 2.94%
    60 64 3903 3.46%
    65 69 8130 7.21%
    70 74 11094 9.84%
    75 79 15370 13.63%
    80 84 20465 18.15%
    85 89 22308 19.78%
    90+ 23624 20.95%
    Admission rates for England

    0 to 5 3,152 0.78%
    6 to 17 3,090 0.77%
    18 to 64 146,825 36.46%
    65 to 84 165,610 41.13%
    85+ 83,977 20.86%
    0.77% of 6 - 17s admitted to hospital post viral infection I am guessing ?
    I'd guess post vaccination hospital admission is far lower than that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    This group of “scientists” have gone completely bonkers, what they’re saying isn’t close to being bourne out by the evidence and statistics, but they’re becoming rediculously shrill in their statements.

    They also don’t have to balance the real-world costs of keeping the restrictions in place, with furlough, unemployment, business failures and crashing tax revenues weighing heavily on the minds of those actually making the decisions.

    It’s clear there will be no overwhelming of the health system, therefore there’s no need for the restrictions to remain. Domestically at least, in the U.K. the pandemic is over.
    You're being a bit rash there - there's an argument that we should unlock for economic reasons, but both hospitalisation and death rates are up sharply as the previous increase in cases feeds through. There's also a tricky decision to make over whether to let NHS staff who "ping" stay at work with daily tests, or wait for the relaxation in August. If they wait, then hospitals will struggle to cope (not just with Covid). If they don't wait, then they may make hospitals more dangerous.

    Vaccination is working well and the situation is much less grave than 8 months ago. But we can't blithely say the pandemic is over. Even Johnson, always sanguine, is not saying that. We need to move carefully to avoid putting us back into difficulty.
    Hospitalisation and death rates may be up sharply, but from very very low bases. From the England data it looks like no-one under 60 has died from Covid in months. That is not to write-off anyone over 60, but to re-frame the disease. It is much more treatable thanks to the vaccination programme.
    Yes, agreed on the last point (and you've looked at the age data more closely than I had), though I do think the 40% bounce in hospitalisation this week (to 2446) is a concern. The main remaining issues are (a) the extent and severity of long Covid in all age groups (nobody is quite sure about definition, spread, severity or duration) (b) avoiding hospitalisation and deaths in the vulnerable sectors accelerating because of rapid spread among the young.

    The position is much better than it was, as I said, but it's hyperbole to say that the pandemic is over. We've come a long way and just need to avoid spoiling it now.
    There appear to be 122k hospital beds in the UK (across all specialities). We are at 81% capacity which again appears to be a 10-year low.

    Edit: although they do say "caution should be exercised in comparing overall occupancy rates between this year and previous years. " on account of Covid.
    Sensible comments.

    I think the main point being missed by the writers of the Lancet letter is the upside of getting back on all those things which have been neglected due to Covid.

    I remarked a few days ago that my local hospital was now back at 100%. TBF our Covid cases are currently half of the England average (120 vs 250).

    Looking at some of the crisis numbers (eg ops with waits over 12 months) these have fallen quite a lot back down during dips in the pandemic.

    So I think this may have weight in the analysis. Politically the Govt know that continuing elevated waiting numbers are in the queue of political ammunition to be used against them in next 1-3 years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    The dose figures are wrong

    First dose is 86% and second is 64.6%

    But this is iSage
    Total population (so includes U18)
    Thank you but misleading
    It's not misleading. The percentage dosed of the whole population is more important from an epidemiological point of view, while the percentage dose of the adult population is more important for judging how well the vaccine rollout is going. They are different answers to different questions and it's not accurate to say it is misleading to look at one rather than the other, unless one figure is misrepresented as being the other, which is not the case here.
    2 figures with different meanings.

    It is misleading if either the denominators (all / adults) are swapped around, or if the implications are not explained.

    On the one hand under 18s have a much less serious impact from Covid than say over 50s, so to pretend that that 22% of the pop represents a massive vulnerability, or eg to use it implicitly in conjunction with previous experience of hospitalisation or deaths as a "omigod look!" red flag, is misleading.

    On the other to pretend that there is no vulnerability in that group is also questionable.

    I think the most important current numbers is that double vacced amongst the nine vulnerable cohorts is now at 90%-99%.

    And combined with 1st and 2nd dose numbers by 19 July that some places will never achieve, suggests that it is time to move forward again - taking a rain-check on the 12th or whenever it will be.
    Death rates, for England,

    00 04 10 0.01%
    05 09 6 0.01%
    10 14 13 0.01%
    15 19 34 0.03%
    20 24 60 0.05%
    25 29 121 0.11%
    30 34 215 0.19%
    35 39 364 0.32%
    40 44 582 0.52%
    45 49 1142 1.01%
    50 54 2024 1.79%
    55 59 3312 2.94%
    60 64 3903 3.46%
    65 69 8130 7.21%
    70 74 11094 9.84%
    75 79 15370 13.63%
    80 84 20465 18.15%
    85 89 22308 19.78%
    90+ 23624 20.95%
    Admission rates for England

    0 to 5 3,152 0.78%
    6 to 17 3,090 0.77%
    18 to 64 146,825 36.46%
    65 to 84 165,610 41.13%
    85+ 83,977 20.86%
    0.77% of 6 - 17s admitted to hospital post viral infection I am guessing ?
    I'd guess post vaccination hospital admission is far lower than that.
    That's everyone, for the whole epidemic
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    gealbhan said:

    justin124 said:

    Boris is rather a lucky general again....success is nothing to do with him, but never hurts for a country to be excited about some sporting success.

    It did not do Harold Wilson much good back in 1966. England won the World Cup at the end of July, yet by the end of 1967 the Labour Government had lost 5 by elections - and suffered a landslide defeat at the GLC elections. A further 5 by elections were lost in the first half of 1968 accompanied by disastrous results at the May 1968 local elections.
    Yet if it wasn’t for the managerial mistakes in the Germany match, would have got in again.
    I don't think a late Gert Muller goal cost Harold the election though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    The Guardian and Numbers, from that piece about the 'expert' letter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening

    "Cases doubling every 9 days"


    Their own dashboard embedded in the article shows cases up by only 25% in a week.


    It really is ridiculous. Cases are not doubling over such periods and the rate of increase is clearly slowing down. I think we are not yet at peak but we are close.
    This group of “scientists” have gone completely bonkers, what they’re saying isn’t close to being bourne out by the evidence and statistics, but they’re becoming rediculously shrill in their statements.

    They also don’t have to balance the real-world costs of keeping the restrictions in place, with furlough, unemployment, business failures and crashing tax revenues weighing heavily on the minds of those actually making the decisions.

    It’s clear there will be no overwhelming of the health system, therefore there’s no need for the restrictions to remain. Domestically at least, in the U.K. the pandemic is over.
    You're being a bit rash there - there's an argument that we should unlock for economic reasons, but both hospitalisation and death rates are up sharply as the previous increase in cases feeds through. There's also a tricky decision to make over whether to let NHS staff who "ping" stay at work with daily tests, or wait for the relaxation in August. If they wait, then hospitals will struggle to cope (not just with Covid). If they don't wait, then they may make hospitals more dangerous.

    Vaccination is working well and the situation is much less grave than 8 months ago. But we can't blithely say the pandemic is over. Even Johnson, always sanguine, is not saying that. We need to move carefully to avoid putting us back into difficulty.
    Hospitalisation and death rates may be up sharply, but from very very low bases. From the England data it looks like no-one under 60 has died from Covid in months. That is not to write-off anyone over 60, but to re-frame the disease. It is much more treatable thanks to the vaccination programme.
    As most of you know my wife's family live in Moray and we have a great interest in news from there

    Inverness, Elgin and Aberdeen hospitals are being overwhelmed but seemingly more by staff isolating than covid admissions

    This does raise the question that all four nations should exempt double vaccinated staff from isolation
    Yesterday's Courier confirmed that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee has the highest number of cases in ICU since February but this sounds a lot more alarming than it actually is. There are currently 6 in ICU in Ninewells and 44 across Tayside which is down from the 53 there were on Sunday.

    There is no doubt that this particular wave is hitting Scotland harder than rUK and that this is causing some pressure on the NHS but it really needs to be kept in some form of proportion. The threat of Sturgeon delaying freedom day in Scotland is real but misguided.
    She will stay in her covid bunker for as long as she can stretch it out , wasteland for her when she eventually comes out of hiding.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,574
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:
    Are those not basically the same as last year when job applications to the NHS were very significantly up when various media-shouters were talking about the NHS having an undermined future?
    Probably this year's applications are boosted by those who did not apply last year but more importantly there is a population bulge that has been moving through the schools so it is unsurprising it should reach universities.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,574
    Oops -- posting on old fred.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Let's not get carried away.
    Oh, you already have.


    Pass the sick bucket.
This discussion has been closed.