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The first post-Hancock polling sees BoJo’s best PM lead down 7 and the CON poll lead down 4 – politi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,032
edited June 2021 in General
The first post-Hancock polling sees BoJo’s best PM lead down 7 and the CON poll lead down 4 – politicalbetting.com

BoJo's "best PM" lead over Starmer drops 9% in week. pic.twitter.com/8Jj7SDLM8K

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    1st
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    edited June 2021
    E pluribus unum.

    Edit - Sloppy second.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    edited June 2021
    i think the Tories would take still being on 41% after all the negative headlines. That's only 2% below the long term average over the past few months (and actually the same seen on a poll or two after the delay of freedom day).

    The real difference is as always the Labour / Lib Dem split. Labour poll anywhere between 30 and 36%. That's the full gammit of not too far behind to still miles behind.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The comparison to make is surely with how the polling went at the time of the Cummings and goings to Durham Castle?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,559
    Who.is the pollster?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,834
    isam said:

    @Anabobazina My argument to an anti vaxx mate who was saying it wasn't worth getting the jab was its like an angry, hungry Lion is prowling round your town, but you've built a wall at your house it can only just get over with the first jab, then removed its teeth and claws with the second.

    Still wouldn't want to come face to face with it, but could have been worse

    Nice analogy, although I read something about bug cat tongues doing a lot of damage on their own... that’ll be the autumn booster!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    squareroot2 said:

    Who.is the pollster?

    Redfield & Wilton. Says so in small print on the tweet.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    McCoist & Tyldsley are the best comms by far, amazing that itv dont consider them their man men
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    Has Mbappe pulled a hamstring ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,559
    Ok.i see in small print Its Redfield and Wilton....new kids on the block.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    edited June 2021
    Doubtless this polling explains the PM's insistence he fired Hancock as soon as he heard about it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    Pogba has been absolutely world class this evening.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pogba has been absolutely world class this evening.

    Destined to miss his penalty innit.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Switzerland now hanging on for dear life... Six minutes to go.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pagel’s latest tweet is irresponsible in the extreme. She is a mathematician. How on Earth does she get away with this stuff?

    She's a moron and gets signal boosted by people with Boris and Brexit derangement syndrome who are looking for any kind of idiot who is anti-government.
    There are those who, for instance, have watched and read about Andrew Marr's experience and will feel even with two vaccinations they cannot risk contracting the virus.

    Why - because they have pre-existing health conditions and other factors which mean they are scared if they catch covid they will need to go to hospital and fear they won't return. Quoting statistics at them doesn't help - we need a different approach .

    How do you confront that kind of fear? Well, shouting at people and calling them names isn't going to help. Opening up and pretending everything can be "normal" may not be the answer either - we need a proper sensible adult conversation about the risks for the doubly vaccinated and especially the most vulnerable.

    If we reported the cases and deaths of flu in the same way we are reporting cases and deaths of COVID, people would be terrified of flu, and that fear would be hard to 'overcome'

    The government simply need to dismantle the regulations and play down repotting of the issue, some will feel unsafe for a bit and stay in there homes then slowly realise the would is not ending and come out.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited June 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Doubtless this polling explains the PM's insistence he fired Hancock as soon as he heard about it.

    Some in Hancock's constituency party now want to go further and are pushing for him to be deselected, there are still a fair number of blue rinse social conservatives in the Tory Party, especially in rural seats like West Suffolk. They will not have been impressed with the way he treated his wife.
    https://ariversideview.wordpress.com/2021/06/28/i-fully-support-the-members-of-west-suffolk-conservative-association-who-are-calling-for-matt-hancocks-deselection/
  • beentheredonethatbeentheredonethat Posts: 838
    isam said:

    McCoist & Tyldsley are the best comms by far, amazing that itv dont consider them their man men

    Tyldesley has been crying it in for France tonight. Really annoys me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gotta love Republicans

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1409500460474634241?s=19

    Trump for the Nom looks very tasty.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    isam said:

    The comparison to make is surely with how the polling went at the time of the Cummings and goings to Durham Castle?

    Perhaps as Johnson claims he immediately sacked Hancock's sorry arse it will not have the same effect as hanging onto Cummings.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    isam said:

    The comparison to make is surely with how the polling went at the time of the Cummings and goings to Durham Castle?

    The Government's typical poll lead was about 12pts up until late May 2020, then abruptly halved. I'm assuming this must've been the Barnard Castle effect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It just dawned on me that Switzerland have an unfair advantage here.

    They are playing this match on a neutral ground.

    Insidious.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
    Maybe I am missing something but I have just noticed that the article linked in Pagel's tweet about 20-30% of cases getting long covid literally says research found 1 in 20.

    Would love to see her operational research workings.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Personally I'm surprised that is only a 9% drop,
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    Switzerland in no rush for this free kick lol.
    Going to pens.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Penalties.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    edited June 2021
    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    The comparison to make is surely with how the polling went at the time of the Cummings and goings to Durham Castle?

    Perhaps as Johnson claims he immediately sacked Hancock's sorry arse it will not have the same effect as hanging onto Cummings.
    Hasn't it been established that was literally a lie. Johnson did not sack him. He directed No 10 to brief that he was staying and the case was closed.

    Hancock resigned the next day following a meeting with whips who told him at least 80 Tory MPs have been in touch to say he was toast.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019
    Time to pay the penalties!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    Penali! Is that a young Chris Coleman in goal for Switzerland?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    Today's Redfield poll figures of Tories 41% and Labour 34% would almost exactly replicate the totals of the 2 main parties at the 1992 general election.

    So Starmer would make inroads into the Tory majority as Kinnock did then but Boris like Major would be narrowly re elected

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2021/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    edited June 2021
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Doubtless this polling explains the PM's insistence he fired Hancock as soon as he heard about it.

    Some in Hancock's constituency party now want to go further and are pushing for him to be deselected, there are still a fair number of blue rinse social conservatives in the Tory Party, especially in rural seats like West Suffolk. They will not have been impressed with the way he treated his wife.
    https://ariversideview.wordpress.com/2021/06/28/i-fully-support-the-members-of-west-suffolk-conservative-association-who-are-calling-for-matt-hancocks-deselection/
    That blog suggests Hancock's wife has Long Covid. Is there any truth in this?
    If so he goes down in my estimation. And I didn't think that was possible.
    No wonder the PM was so disgusted he sacked him on the spot!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Doubtless this polling explains the PM's insistence he fired Hancock as soon as he heard about it.

    Some in Hancock's constituency party now want to go further and are pushing for him to be deselected, there are still a fair number of blue rinse social conservatives in the Tory Party, especially in rural seats like West Suffolk. They will not have been impressed with the way he treated his wife.
    https://ariversideview.wordpress.com/2021/06/28/i-fully-support-the-members-of-west-suffolk-conservative-association-who-are-calling-for-matt-hancocks-deselection/
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/26/hes-lower-than-a-snakes-belly-newmarkets-view-of-matt-hancock-their-embattled-local-mp

    Yes, I know you don't go to the Graun for an unbiased view of a Tory politician, but it's quite amusing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    We don't want any of this nonsense penalities tomorrow night.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    BigRich said:

    Personally I'm surprised that is only a 9% drop,

    It is still 42 to 31 and I am surprised that both the poll and lead did not drop further

    Sajid has made a good start by saying we have to live with covid , and of course the focus will shift to England then B & S
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,834
    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
    Maybe I am missing something but I have just noticed that the article linked in Pagel's tweet about 20-30% of cases getting long covid literally says research found 1 in 20.

    Would love to see her operational research workings.
    No - I saw that too. She is clearly either an idiot or lying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,415
    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    The comparison to make is surely with how the polling went at the time of the Cummings and goings to Durham Castle?

    Perhaps as Johnson claims he immediately sacked Hancock's sorry arse it will not have the same effect as hanging onto Cummings.
    Or perhaps they’ll blame him for calling the matter closed, and then caving to public opinion ?
    Could go either way, but I think he’s burned a considerable amount of credibility with those who still gave him the benefit of the doubt.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Today's Redfield poll figures of Tories 41% and Labour 34% would almost exactly replicate the totals of the 2 main parties at the 1992 general election.

    So Starmer would make inroads into the Tory majority as Kinnock did then but Boris like Major would be narrowly re elected

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2021/

    I Baxtered it (leaving the Scottish percentages frozen from last time) and came up with a Tory majority of 28. However, I don't know how much use UNS is in these situations. Even if the Tory lead gets significantly smaller, it's quite possible that they'll underperform in the South and overperform in the Midlands and North, which ought to help them overall.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,284
    BigRich said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pagel’s latest tweet is irresponsible in the extreme. She is a mathematician. How on Earth does she get away with this stuff?

    She's a moron and gets signal boosted by people with Boris and Brexit derangement syndrome who are looking for any kind of idiot who is anti-government.
    There are those who, for instance, have watched and read about Andrew Marr's experience and will feel even with two vaccinations they cannot risk contracting the virus.

    Why - because they have pre-existing health conditions and other factors which mean they are scared if they catch covid they will need to go to hospital and fear they won't return. Quoting statistics at them doesn't help - we need a different approach .

    How do you confront that kind of fear? Well, shouting at people and calling them names isn't going to help. Opening up and pretending everything can be "normal" may not be the answer either - we need a proper sensible adult conversation about the risks for the doubly vaccinated and especially the most vulnerable.

    If we reported the cases and deaths of flu in the same way we are reporting cases and deaths of COVID, people would be terrified of flu, and that feer would be hard to 'overcome'

    The government simply need to dismantle the regulations and play down repotting of the issue, some will feel unsafe for a bit and stay in there homes then slowly realise the would is not ending and come out.
    I was thinking about this the other day. Your point about flu (and I would add pneumonia) statistical reporting is a strong one. AIUI there was a plan to have the NHS reports separate ‘cases’ from people who were actually getting sick, but I have no idea what happened to it.

    I learned only very recently that it is very possible to contract influenza asymptomatically - but it is not perceived as ‘having the flu’ because people are never or only very, very rarely tested for that virus.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    turbotubbs said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
    Maybe I am missing something but I have just noticed that the article linked in Pagel's tweet about 20-30% of cases getting long covid literally says research found 1 in 20.

    Would love to see her operational research workings.
    No - I saw that too. She is clearly either an idiot or lying.
    Could be both?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,415
    edited June 2021
    Alistair said:

    Gotta love Republicans

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1409500460474634241?s=19

    Trump for the Nom looks very tasty.

    De Santis is also in there.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/559382-desantis-tops-trump-in-2024-presidential-straw-poll

    (Even if autocorrect is yet to recognise him.)
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edited June 2021
    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
    Maybe I am missing something but I have just noticed that the article linked in Pagel's tweet about 20-30% of cases getting long covid literally says research found 1 in 20.

    Would love to see her operational research workings.
    They're frightened because of 15 months of psy-ops., with SAGE saying in spring 2020 'we must raise the fear level'. I have two friends (he's 81, she's 77) who haven't left the house and garden since March 2020 except for a few visits to the doctor or hospital.

    Without the pharma industry suppressing cheap repurposed drugs, it's reasonable to consider that 10,000s of people worldwide would still be alive and after 15 months we might almost have eradicated the virus in developed countries.

    Go to a platform like Bitchute and watch interviews with people like Drs. Kory, Malone, Weinstein, McCullough et al. One of the drugs is being used against 'long COVID' and, er, against vaccine injuries. Bitchute has more information than the better known channels, because tragically Youtube and F'book remove information if it goes against the narrative. It's due to corruption, ahem, so sorry 'regulatory capture'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Thugs harassing Chris Whitty again

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1409625943283408902?s=20

    Lock'em up!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BigRich said:

    Personally I'm surprised that is only a 9% drop,

    It is still 42 to 31 and I am surprised that both the poll and lead did not drop further

    Sajid has made a good start by saying we have to live with covid , and of course the focus will shift to England then B & S
    Genius, by Saj if it works out Nonetheless brave if the next (whatever it will be called) variant is more dangerous than Delta and daily fatalities creep into triple figures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    Black_Rook said:

    HYUFD said:

    Today's Redfield poll figures of Tories 41% and Labour 34% would almost exactly replicate the totals of the 2 main parties at the 1992 general election.

    So Starmer would make inroads into the Tory majority as Kinnock did then but Boris like Major would be narrowly re elected

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2021/

    I Baxtered it (leaving the Scottish percentages frozen from last time) and came up with a Tory majority of 28. However, I don't know how much use UNS is in these situations. Even if the Tory lead gets significantly smaller, it's quite possible that they'll underperform in the South and overperform in the Midlands and North, which ought to help them overall.
    There does seem to be a swing to Labour in the North West, with Labour now ahead 49% to 34%, though the Tories are ahead in the rest of the North.

    By far the biggest Tory lead is now in the Eastern region where they are now on 61%, far ahead of their traditionally strongest region of the South East where they are on 51% with the LDs up to 14%

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2021/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    Wow
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Switzerland!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    Switzerland win, France out
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    :lol::lol::lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,415
    LOL.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Lol
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    So my nightmare scenario is avoided.

    England get to the final and then get dry humped by the French in the final.
  • beentheredonethatbeentheredonethat Posts: 838
    Fuck you Tyldesley
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Massive boost for Engerlaaand tonight






    Or Germany
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    Germany going to win the euros aren't they....
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    For anybody following COVID in the USA, COVID cases are now rising in 12 states, including Californian and Texas,

    Of the 12 stars 9 have below average COVID vaccinations, so that will probably be part of it, but its not that simple, of the 10 states with the lowest vaccination only 2 are rising,

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,132
    Wow. There goes my England France final bet.

    Wonder who we'll meet now?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,284
    OMG
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,834
    rural_voter said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
    Maybe I am missing something but I have just noticed that the article linked in Pagel's tweet about 20-30% of cases getting long covid literally says research found 1 in 20.

    Would love to see her operational research workings.
    They're frightened because of 15 months of psy-ops., with SAGE saying in spring 2020 'we must raise the fear level'. I have two friends (he's 81, she's 77) who haven't left the house and garden since March 2020 except for a few visits to the doctor or hospital.

    Without the pharma industry suppressing cheap repurposed drugs, it's reasonable to consider that 10,000s of people worldwide would still be alive and after 15 months we might almost have eradicated the virus in developed countries.

    Go to a platform like Bitchute and watch interviews with people like Drs. Kory, Malone, Weinstein, McCullough et al. One of the drugs is being used against 'long COVID' and, er, against vaccine injuries. Bitchute has more information than the better known channels, because tragically Youtube and F'book remove information if it goes against the narrative. It's due to corruption, ahem, so sorry 'regulatory capture'.
    You’ve been careful not to mention ivermectin directly, perhaps because we have been over this a few times. There is now a study on using ivermectin. Care for a small wager on the outcome, payable to the pb coffers? Say £10? I say ivermectin will be found to have limited or no impact on disease progression. You clearly think it will stop anyone dying. Up for it?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019
    OMG hats off to Switzerland!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    kinabalu said:

    Wow. There goes my England France final bet.

    Wonder who we'll meet now?

    Italy look the best team in that side of the draw.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Great evening of football
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    kinabalu said:

    Wow. There goes my England France final bet.

    Wonder who we'll meet now?

    Germany and lose !!!!

    After penalties
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    Incredible. Mbappe the villain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    At least it was a great save rather than a blast over the bar.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Black_Rook said:

    HYUFD said:

    Today's Redfield poll figures of Tories 41% and Labour 34% would almost exactly replicate the totals of the 2 main parties at the 1992 general election.

    So Starmer would make inroads into the Tory majority as Kinnock did then but Boris like Major would be narrowly re elected

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2021/

    I Baxtered it (leaving the Scottish percentages frozen from last time) and came up with a Tory majority of 28. However, I don't know how much use UNS is in these situations. Even if the Tory lead gets significantly smaller, it's quite possible that they'll underperform in the South and overperform in the Midlands and North, which ought to help them overall.
    There does seem to be a swing to Labour in the North West, with Labour now ahead 49% to 34%, though the Tories are ahead in the rest of the North.

    By far the biggest Tory lead is now in the Eastern region where they are now on 61%, far ahead of their traditionally strongest region of the South East where they are on 51% with the LDs up to 14%

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2021/
    Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex, innit? The territory to the South and West of London is more Lib Dem friendly overall, though granted there's also the Pale of Cambridge to be taken into account.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    edited June 2021
    France, feel the Berne.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,132
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Gotta love Republicans

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1409500460474634241?s=19

    Trump for the Nom looks very tasty.

    De Santis is also in there.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/559382-desantis-tops-trump-in-2024-presidential-straw-poll

    (Even if autocorrect is yet to recognise him.)
    That's my crazy right winger. I've laid them all except him.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow. There goes my England France final bet.

    Wonder who we'll meet now?

    Germany and lose !!!!

    After penalties
    That would be my assumption.

    Husband thinks they might just beat the Germans, triggering national hysteria - and then flop like limp lettuce against Sweden in the QF.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    isam said:

    The comparison to make is surely with how the polling went at the time of the Cummings and goings to Durham Castle?

    Perhaps as Johnson claims he immediately sacked Hancock's sorry arse it will not have the same effect as hanging onto Cummings.
    Or perhaps they’ll blame him for calling the matter closed, and then caving to public opinion ?
    Could go either way, but I think he’s burned a considerable amount of credibility with those who still gave him the benefit of the doubt.
    Unfortunately those still giving him credibility would appear to be most of the Midlands, East Anglia and Northern England...and the fanbois
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Gotta love Republicans

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1409500460474634241?s=19

    Trump for the Nom looks very tasty.

    De Santis is also in there.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/559382-desantis-tops-trump-in-2024-presidential-straw-poll

    (Even if autocorrect is yet to recognise him.)
    Yeah, DeSantis is definitely in with a strong shout too.

    I still find the whole thing too clouded in uncertainty for me to bet on.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,834
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So my nightmare scenario is avoided.

    England get to the final and then get dry humped by the French in the final.

    My nightmare is losing on pens tomorrow around 7.45 pm. Always hated pens, as you don’t seem to have lost the game, but lost the method of resolving who goes through in those circumstances. Never really feel you ‘lose’ on pens. Got mega pissed off at an Aussie wanker during 1998 WC. When we went out against Argentina he wouldn’t shut up about England losing. Went and gave blood. Felt bad for the poor bugger who got those added extras in the blood transfusion...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,977
    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities.

    1 Spain 4.5 22.2%
    2 Italy 5.4 18.5%
    3 England 5.9 16.9%
    4 Germany 7.6 13.2%
    5 Belgium 8.6 11.6%
    6 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    7 Switzerland 27 3.7%
    8 Czechia 34 2.9%
    9 Sweden 55 1.8%
    10 Ukraine 95 1.1%
    All quoted.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,749
    Oh dear,

    Mons. Macaron will be even more furious than he was before.

    Ooops.
  • beentheredonethatbeentheredonethat Posts: 838
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities.

    1 Spain 4.5 22.2%
    2 Italy 5.4 18.5%
    3 England 5.9 16.9%
    4 Germany 7.6 13.2%
    5 Belgium 8.6 11.6%
    6 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    7 Switzerland 27 3.7%
    8 Czechia 34 2.9%
    9 Sweden 55 1.8%
    10 Ukraine 95 1.1%
    All quoted.

    Belgium are easily the value there
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,132
    isam said:

    No France players consoled Mbappe there, that was a bit weird.

    I hate penalty shoot outs, so sad for the player who misses

    I missed one in our semi final shootout earlier this season, having scored a 119th min equaliser to take it to pens. Wish I hadn’t bothered

    Talk about hero to zero in very short order.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,977
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow. There goes my England France final bet.

    Wonder who we'll meet now?

    Germany and lose !!!!

    After penalties
    Today shows the danger of Southgate's normal plan to take an early lead then sit on it. Too many late goals.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Swiss Roll on

    French, fancy
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    This is so funny

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1409622282142580737?s=19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited June 2021
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Gotta love Republicans

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1409500460474634241?s=19

    Trump for the Nom looks very tasty.

    De Santis is also in there.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/559382-desantis-tops-trump-in-2024-presidential-straw-poll

    (Even if autocorrect is yet to recognise him.)
    Yeah, DeSantis is definitely in with a strong shout too.

    I still find the whole thing too clouded in uncertainty for me to bet on.
    If Trump does run again he will likely be nominee, of not it looks to be DeSantis.

    Though Trump could pick DeSantis as his VP nominee anyway now Pence is out of favour and he is governor of the swing state of Florida too.

    De Santis seems to combine Trump's populism and policies with a few more brains, having a history degree from Yale and a law degree from Harvard
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    MattW said:

    Oh dear,

    Mons. Macaron will be even more furious than he was before.

    Ooops.

    And he was nowhere in yesterday's elections
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,415
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Gotta love Republicans

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1409500460474634241?s=19

    Trump for the Nom looks very tasty.

    De Santis is also in there.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/559382-desantis-tops-trump-in-2024-presidential-straw-poll

    (Even if autocorrect is yet to recognise him.)
    That's my crazy right winger. I've laid them all except him.
    Snap.
    Though there is the possible wild card of the building collapse. The likelihood is that it will be ruled an isolated event, but there’s a non negligible possibility of it opening a very large can of worms for Florida real estate.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,977
    beentheredonethat said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Euro 2020 Betfair prices and their implied probabilities.

    1 Spain 4.5 22.2%
    2 Italy 5.4 18.5%
    3 England 5.9 16.9%
    4 Germany 7.6 13.2%
    5 Belgium 8.6 11.6%
    6 Denmark 11.5 8.7%
    7 Switzerland 27 3.7%
    8 Czechia 34 2.9%
    9 Sweden 55 1.8%
    10 Ukraine 95 1.1%
    All quoted.

    Belgium are easily the value there
    Belgium are the value *if* Hazard and de Bruyne recover from injury.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    turbotubbs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So my nightmare scenario is avoided.

    England get to the final and then get dry humped by the French in the final.

    My nightmare is losing on pens tomorrow around 7.45 pm. Always hated pens, as you don’t seem to have lost the game, but lost the method of resolving who goes through in those circumstances. Never really feel you ‘lose’ on pens. Got mega pissed off at an Aussie wanker during 1998 WC. When we went out against Argentina he wouldn’t shut up about England losing. Went and gave blood. Felt bad for the poor bugger who got those added extras in the blood transfusion...
    As an 11 year losing on penalties to West Germany in 1990 desensitised me to future hurt when it comes to penalty shoot outs.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    If anyone wants some data to show an anti-vaxxer then:

    UK
    New cases 22,868
    New deaths 3

    Russia
    New cases 21,650
    New deaths 611

    Yeah, I know Russian data is only a small fraction of what's really happening but even so.

    Alternatively:

    France
    New cases 509
    New deaths 44

    Yeah, I know about time lags but even so.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Anabobazina said:

    BigRich said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pagel’s latest tweet is irresponsible in the extreme. She is a mathematician. How on Earth does she get away with this stuff?

    She's a moron and gets signal boosted by people with Boris and Brexit derangement syndrome who are looking for any kind of idiot who is anti-government.
    There are those who, for instance, have watched and read about Andrew Marr's experience and will feel even with two vaccinations they cannot risk contracting the virus.

    Why - because they have pre-existing health conditions and other factors which mean they are scared if they catch covid they will need to go to hospital and fear they won't return. Quoting statistics at them doesn't help - we need a different approach .

    How do you confront that kind of fear? Well, shouting at people and calling them names isn't going to help. Opening up and pretending everything can be "normal" may not be the answer either - we need a proper sensible adult conversation about the risks for the doubly vaccinated and especially the most vulnerable.

    If we reported the cases and deaths of flu in the same way we are reporting cases and deaths of COVID, people would be terrified of flu, and that feer would be hard to 'overcome'

    The government simply need to dismantle the regulations and play down repotting of the issue, some will feel unsafe for a bit and stay in there homes then slowly realise the would is not ending and come out.
    I was thinking about this the other day. Your point about flu (and I would add pneumonia) statistical reporting is a strong one. AIUI there was a plan to have the NHS reports separate ‘cases’ from people who were actually getting sick, but I have no idea what happened to it.

    I learned only very recently that it is very possible to contract influenza asymptomatically - but it is not perceived as ‘having the flu’ because people are never or only very, very rarely tested for that virus.
    A few weeks ago, we had a week where 10 times more people died of ether the flu or Phenomena, now it will have changed a bit, COVID deaths have gone up since then and I think that we a bad week for Phenomena,

    But still, AIUI we are testing everybody who goes in to hospital to see if they have COVID, and unsurprisingly find a few who are asymptomatic for for COVID but have come to hospital for another reason, a hart condition, or something, maybe the asymptomatic COVID has put some extra stress on the body and that's why its this week he is going to hospital with the hart condition? and if he dies that well be a case of look see COVID is killing people. which is not inaccurate but is a distraction form the fact the hart condition killed him and if he was this week then maybe a cold or Flu would have done the same. who knows if we tested everybody who came in to hospital, for asymptomatic Colds or Flus, then it would tern out that even more people died of Colds/flues than thought and almost nobody ever dies of a hart condition.

    OK that's a bit of speculation, maybe somebody has done research? but we just have to open up soon and completely.

    No contrary has ever improved it long term health care, by crushing its educations system, its economy and mental health of its people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,415
    Someone was claiming recently that the pace of scientific discovery was slowing…

    June 26, 2000
    First human genome draft sequence reported

    June 26, 2021
    First human genome editing by IV infusion published
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1408842800947335170
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited June 2021
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    This is so funny

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1409622282142580737?s=19

    Pity his mistresses' husband, dumped for Hancock.

    Though he can console himself he is a multi millionaire, Hancock now an ex Health Secretary backbencher facing moves to deselect him.

    His mistress seems quite pushy so not sure how long she will stick around
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,729
    Interestingly on Newsnight there is a feature on Boris Johnson's lies. A lawyer Peter Stefanovic has taken the trouble to list them. As it's been watched by 20 million viewers I imagine everyone's seen it so I wont embarrass him by linking to it again........

    ...........Oh go on then

    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/video-exposing-boris-johnsons-lies-to-parliament-hits-20-million-views/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    This is so funny

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1409622282142580737?s=19

    Pity his mistresses' husband, dumped for Hancock.

    Though he can console himself he is a multi millionaire, Hancock now an ex Health Secretary backbencher facing moves to deselect him.

    His mistress seems quite pushy so not sure how long she will stick around
    He faces serious questions and has let down the country, as well as the party, and not least his family

    I would be content for him to resign his seat
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,415
    A short Applebaum article, one of her best.

    Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/06/milley-critical-race-theory-marxism-racism-fox-news/619308/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Possibly one for @DavidL ?

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1409632817907044363?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,977
    Roger said:

    Interestingly on Newsnight there is a feature on Boris Johnson's lies. A lawyer Peter Stefanovic has taken the trouble to list them. As it's been watched by 20 million viewers I imagine everyone's seen it so I wont embarrass him by linking to it again........

    ...........Oh go on then

    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/video-exposing-boris-johnsons-lies-to-parliament-hits-20-million-views/

    This is what Keir Starmer should have been working on.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    turbotubbs said:

    rural_voter said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't see what that has got to do with anything and it's ultimately their own personal choice to not go out. I think over time people will have to either learn to live with the risk or choose to live a life in fear.

    People like the above and other zero COVID types do nothing to help the situation with fake statistics about getting severe disease post vaccination don't help the situation.

    We should be better than "choose to live a life in fear".

    If people are frightened, why are they frightened? How do we overcome that fear? What will make people feel safe again? It may not be total eradication of coronavirus - it may be for some, it isn't for me.
    They're frightened because they're being fed a constant diet of fear by zero COVID people and the media signal boosting them. Marr getting a bit of a cold despite his pre-existing conditions and age is a really positive story. He'd probably be on his death bed without the vaccine. Instead he's back to work and has no lasting effects from it. People like Pagel incorrectly saying that 20-30% of people get long COVID is completely irresponsible and feeds the fear of people who are already worried.

    There's an irrationality about catching COVID among a certain section of people who are constantly on the look out for bad news.
    Maybe I am missing something but I have just noticed that the article linked in Pagel's tweet about 20-30% of cases getting long covid literally says research found 1 in 20.

    Would love to see her operational research workings.
    They're frightened because of 15 months of psy-ops., with SAGE saying in spring 2020 'we must raise the fear level'. I have two friends (he's 81, she's 77) who haven't left the house and garden since March 2020 except for a few visits to the doctor or hospital.

    Without the pharma industry suppressing cheap repurposed drugs, it's reasonable to consider that 10,000s of people worldwide would still be alive and after 15 months we might almost have eradicated the virus in developed countries.

    Go to a platform like Bitchute and watch interviews with people like Drs. Kory, Malone, Weinstein, McCullough et al. One of the drugs is being used against 'long COVID' and, er, against vaccine injuries. Bitchute has more information than the better known channels, because tragically Youtube and F'book remove information if it goes against the narrative. It's due to corruption, ahem, so sorry 'regulatory capture'.
    You’ve been careful not to mention ivermectin directly, perhaps because we have been over this a few times. There is now a study on using ivermectin. Care for a small wager on the outcome, payable to the pb coffers? Say £10? I say ivermectin will be found to have limited or no impact on disease progression. You clearly think it will stop anyone dying. Up for it?
    I suggest you watch multiple interviews with the above doctors first as I have done since mid 2020 and I only bet when I'm not about to fall asleep. Goodnight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    edited June 2021
    Roger said:

    Interestingly on Newsnight there is a feature on Boris Johnson's lies. A lawyer Peter Stefanovic has taken the trouble to list them. As it's been watched by 20 million viewers I imagine everyone's seen it so I wont embarrass him by linking to it again........

    ...........Oh go on then

    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/video-exposing-boris-johnsons-lies-to-parliament-hits-20-million-views/

    I remember all those videos in the GE campaign...ohhh loook how many million views that video has on social media...

    The video you talk about is in a tweet from Aug of last year, its embedded so every time a tweet is even viewed for a second it counts as a "view". During the lifetime of that "killer" video, we have seen Boris lead extend from evens to ~10%....

    Its like the 6 months where every day Dave / Cameron needs to resign hashtag trended, then he won a majority.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    Leon said:

    Best night of euro football ever?

    Gotta be close. Phenomenal matches

    I can’t believe I’m going to write this, but for the first time in my life I actually think international football is better (as in more exciting) than club football.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    MattW said:

    Oh dear,

    Mons. Macaron will be even more furious than he was before.

    Ooops.

    Quasi-effective is what it was....
This discussion has been closed.