Steve Baker MP is right about the exemption for quarantine exemptions UEFA officials – politicalbett
Comments
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American Airlines is about to become the world's best airline, you can just tell.
American Airlines Plans To Give All Frontline Employees New Apple iPhones and iPads
merican’s ever-excellent Chief Information Officer (and former AAdvantage head) Maya Leibman announced to employees today that the airline will be replacing current mobile devices for all frontline employees as well as line maintenance workers with new Apple mobile devices.
The test of these devices started today with agents at Washington National airport (the airport seems to be where a lot of new processes get tested). Maintenance is already getting new iPads, a priority because they previously carried multiple devices to deal with different aircraft. Pilots and flight attendants will take longer to see the upgrades.
https://viewfromthewing.com/american-airlines-plans-to-give-all-frontline-employees-new-apple-iphones-and-ipads/0 -
For age groups 50plus, not be be vaccinated (almost certainly twice) is, I feel, a deliberate decision.Stocky said:
Details of the proportion of hospitalisations is coming from actual vaccine refusers is not possible, I guess, because it goes to motive for not having the jab.AnExileinD4 said:Additionally, we don't know what the proportion of hospitalisations is coming from vaccine refusers. It's the elephant in the room that no politician wants to discuss because the answer is that people who have said no to taking the vaccine are going to have a very high risk of hospitalisation and death post-unlockdown. There's no way around that and we can't stay locked down forever to protect vaccine refusers.
It would be interesting to know that but one suspects a slight nervousness around that as it will, if the targeting of the "get vaccinated" campaigns are any guide, indicate a degree of race-based differentiation.
However, we should know the proportion of new hospitalisations which are not vaccinated (for whatever reason), only had one jab, etc. This information exists somewhere surely?0 -
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.8 -
There is going to be an interesting and difficult discussion in Australia and New Zealand around this point.Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.1 -
All that assumes that 'safety' is or was ever driving government policy in the way you present. I don't think it is now.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
The government is becoming more concerned about the alarming rise in cases of conservative voters in the south of England who are not voting conservative. The knock-on effect could be an increase in Tory MP disposalisations and an eventual overwhelming of the national conservative service.
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Yes. I recall right at the start of the pandemic, the Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch saying "in the end, everyone will catch this"Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
Looks prescient. The same way everyone gets a cold and/or the flu in the end1 -
We've got several days of data - and hospitalisation data tends to be complete when it comes in.Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
The reason this is interesting, is that it is in the face of a sustained increase in cases over
the course of a month+
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Cheerleader wins !
BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a high school cheerleader cut from her squad for using the middle finger and the word "f**k" on Snapchat.
The case is a victory for off-campus free speech and has roots in student Vietnam War protests. Only Justice Thomas dissented.
https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1407716872410353676
And Thomas continues to be a miserable old fnck.1 -
I'll be glad to have been vaccinated before catching it, though, rather than deciding to go ahead and catch it sooner rather than later.Leon said:
Yes. I recall right at the start of the pandemic, the Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch saying "in the end, everyone will catch this"Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
Looks prescient. The same way everyone gets a cold and/or the flu in the end2 -
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.0 -
A doctor relative of mine said the same thing.Leon said:
Yes. I recall right at the start of the pandemic, the Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch saying "in the end, everyone will catch this"Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
Looks prescient. The same way everyone gets a cold and/or the flu in the end
Given that, the best things we can do are: get vaccinated, get fit and give up smoking. All this social distancing, quarantining and isolation isn't the answer unless you're very vulenerable.0 -
Oliver Johnson
@BristOliver
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48m
*Big* headline reported case day - 12,765 in England. Hasn't all filtered in this graph which is by specimen date values, because I cut off the last couple of days for lag, but the next value is already over 11 thousand so you might want to adjust your cope accordingly.0 -
No, case growth hadn't plateaued then and I don't think anyone said that. What was happening (and still is to some degree) was case growth rate was slowing down from about 75% WoW to about 40% WoW, it dropped to about 30% but has crept up to 36%, however Wednesday data tends to exaggerate the growth rate a bit because it backfills Monday which backfills Saturday and Sunday.Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Hospitalisations take around 11-15 days to go from case positive to being admitted, if we look at the case rate for that period we're actually seeing about 6.5k cases per day so already an elevated level but we're not really seeing feed into hospitalisations.
Think of it like a funnel, we've got lots of people entering it but at each stage many more people are leaving it before reaching the next stage of severity than were in the previous wave. This is because of vaccines. In an alternate timeline where delta exists but vaccines don't I think we would be seeing cases at 10x this current number and hospitalisations at 20-30x with a March 2020 lockdown being implemented immediately.0 -
Daily England numbers are here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/JohnLilburne said:
Er the UK figure was 1508 on Monday, up from 1378. Or do you have more recent figures than the gov.uk Coronavirus summary?maaarsh said:Cases up quite a bit (we seem to get a step change once a week at the moment, rather odd) but hospital beds occupied went down 4% (50) which looks to be a correction of the data issue when it appeared to spike over the weekend.
Total beds occupied in England dropped from 1,301 yesterday (the 22nd) to 1,255 today (the 23rd).0 -
One of the best things to come out of the first lockdown was people improvising with home-based group exercise online. The government could have spent a relatively small amount of money on promoting a national fitness campaign last summer. Things like Parkrun should have been expanded instead of cancelled.Fishing said:
A doctor relative of mine said the same thing.Leon said:
Yes. I recall right at the start of the pandemic, the Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch saying "in the end, everyone will catch this"Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
Looks prescient. The same way everyone gets a cold and/or the flu in the end
Given that, the best things we can do are: get vaccinated, get fit and give up smoking. All this social distancing, quarantining and isolation isn't the answer unless you're very vulenerable.2 -
And if it doesn't, the politics of vaccination will get ugly.rcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.1 -
The noteworthy thing is how prevalent it is in 15-19 year olds most whom of course are not eligible for the vaccine and it seems increasingly likely they're not going to be.MaxPB said:
Case growth in England has ticked up from 33% to 36% if these bigger case numbers were going to feed into hospitalisations then we would already be seeing it happen as two weeks ago cases were already around 6.5k.rkrkrk said:As an aside... 16k cases today... % change going back up... numbers in hospital are rising too, but admissions don't seem to be going up much... I guess will be about a week before this big increase in cases feeds through.
The reason is this heatmap:
Groups that are susceptible to hospitalisation aren't getting infected very much at all because the vaccine are highly effective at preventing symptomatic infection.
At the same point in the previous wave for the Beta variant the same heatmap looked like this:
Which led to rolling average of 450 hospitalisations per day vs about 185 at the moment.
Additionally, we don't know what the proportion of hospitalisations is coming from vaccine refusers. It's the elephant in the room that no politician wants to discuss because the answer is that people who have said no to taking the vaccine are going to have a very high risk of hospitalisation and death post-unlockdown. There's no way around that and we can't stay locked down forever to protect vaccine refusers.
If they're not getting vaccinated then they need to get their immunity naturally and that's what's happening. But the virus is running into a wall of immunity for everyone else.
It will burn itself out before too long. There's too much immunity in the herd for it not to do otherwise.0 -
Beds occupied dropped in all areas except the South West, where they're still rising.rcs1000 said:
Daily England numbers are here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/JohnLilburne said:
Er the UK figure was 1508 on Monday, up from 1378. Or do you have more recent figures than the gov.uk Coronavirus summary?maaarsh said:Cases up quite a bit (we seem to get a step change once a week at the moment, rather odd) but hospital beds occupied went down 4% (50) which looks to be a correction of the data issue when it appeared to spike over the weekend.
Total beds occupied in England dropped from 1,301 yesterday (the 22nd) to 1,255 today (the 23rd).
Week-over-week, beds occupied in England rose 19%, which is the smallest increase in a week.2 -
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
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And - a personal bete noire of mine - they shouldn't have closed outdoor gyms. Whoever decided that was a moron.williamglenn said:
One of the best things to come out of the first lockdown was people improvising with home-based group exercise online. The government could have spent a relatively small amount of money on promoting a national fitness campaign last summer. Things like Parkrun should have been expanded instead of cancelled.Fishing said:
A doctor relative of mine said the same thing.Leon said:
Yes. I recall right at the start of the pandemic, the Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch saying "in the end, everyone will catch this"Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
Looks prescient. The same way everyone gets a cold and/or the flu in the end
Given that, the best things we can do are: get vaccinated, get fit and give up smoking. All this social distancing, quarantining and isolation isn't the answer unless you're very vulenerable.1 -
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?0 -
Nailbiting test finish, though NZ have almost got it in the bag.0
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Well, the assumption in the US is that Covid is over. So, if it doesn't run riot (and bear in mind that Rs in most of these places are much lower because they simply have lower population density), then I think America will shrug its shoulders and feel superior to the rest of the world.contrarian said:
And if it doesn't, the politics of vaccination will get ugly.rcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
The danger is that Delta is so much more contagious that Rs will be pretty high even in places which previously avoided meaningful Covid issues.0 -
Though the highest rate by far is in the 20-24 age bandPhilip_Thompson said:
The noteworthy thing is how prevalent it is in 15-19 year olds most whom of course are not eligible for the vaccine and it seems increasingly likely they're not going to be.MaxPB said:
Case growth in England has ticked up from 33% to 36% if these bigger case numbers were going to feed into hospitalisations then we would already be seeing it happen as two weeks ago cases were already around 6.5k.rkrkrk said:As an aside... 16k cases today... % change going back up... numbers in hospital are rising too, but admissions don't seem to be going up much... I guess will be about a week before this big increase in cases feeds through.
The reason is this heatmap:
Groups that are susceptible to hospitalisation aren't getting infected very much at all because the vaccine are highly effective at preventing symptomatic infection.
At the same point in the previous wave for the Beta variant the same heatmap looked like this:
Which led to rolling average of 450 hospitalisations per day vs about 185 at the moment.
Additionally, we don't know what the proportion of hospitalisations is coming from vaccine refusers. It's the elephant in the room that no politician wants to discuss because the answer is that people who have said no to taking the vaccine are going to have a very high risk of hospitalisation and death post-unlockdown. There's no way around that and we can't stay locked down forever to protect vaccine refusers.
If they're not getting vaccinated then they need to get their immunity naturally and that's what's happening. But the virus is running into a wall of immunity for everyone else.
It will burn itself out before too long. There's too much immunity in the herd for it not to do otherwise.
0 -
It's because rural and small town America is much more naturally socially distanced than Camden.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
US school holidays have also already started, and kids won't return until late August - which is a lucky break for the US.
That's when these places could get creamed.1 -
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.0 -
Sweden ahead already.0
-
Sorry yes - the England number fell, the UK total for a few days ago rose.maaarsh said:
Number in hospital fell today.rkrkrk said:As an aside... 16k cases today... % change going back up... numbers in hospital are rising too, but admissions don't seem to be going up much... I guess will be about a week before this big increase in cases feeds through.
0 -
Precisely.rcs1000 said:
Well, the assumption in the US is that Covid is over. So, if it doesn't run riot (and bear in mind that Rs in most of these places are much lower because they simply have lower population density), then I think America will shrug its shoulders and feel superior to the rest of the world.contrarian said:
And if it doesn't, the politics of vaccination will get ugly.rcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
The danger is that Delta is so much more contagious that Rs will be pretty high even in places which previously avoided meaningful Covid issues.
Population density has probably affected R and thus death rates etc more than any NPI or lockdown has. The map of cases per capita and deaths per capita mirrors in almost any nation almost perfectly the maps of population density.
If you live in rural Tennessee or Alberta then your risk from this is completely different to if you live in London or New York or Houston.1 -
Article looks a little sensationalist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that happens it is devastating for labourFloater said:0 -
One of the secondary schools in Durham is closed as 300 pupils and 8 teachers need to isolate.TOPPING said:I do know that as well as universities a lot of schools are very affected by it atm. Perhaps that is driving numbers. Friends of mine have had their children sent home, are isolating, the lot. I think some schools have closed but don't have details.
Those 300 pupils are I think half the current school now Year 11 have finished.0 -
Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)1 -
I don't think it was ever likely to completely die out in the US, simply because of such high rates of vaccine scepticism.Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
As a complete aside, look at those Icelanders! They've got to 82.6% of people with one dose, and more than 50% double vaccinated.0 -
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccination-data-at-a-glance.html0 -
Thanks Prof Thompson, I feel most reassured.Philip_Thompson said:
The noteworthy thing is how prevalent it is in 15-19 year olds most whom of course are not eligible for the vaccine and it seems increasingly likely they're not going to be.MaxPB said:
Case growth in England has ticked up from 33% to 36% if these bigger case numbers were going to feed into hospitalisations then we would already be seeing it happen as two weeks ago cases were already around 6.5k.rkrkrk said:As an aside... 16k cases today... % change going back up... numbers in hospital are rising too, but admissions don't seem to be going up much... I guess will be about a week before this big increase in cases feeds through.
The reason is this heatmap:
Groups that are susceptible to hospitalisation aren't getting infected very much at all because the vaccine are highly effective at preventing symptomatic infection.
At the same point in the previous wave for the Beta variant the same heatmap looked like this:
Which led to rolling average of 450 hospitalisations per day vs about 185 at the moment.
Additionally, we don't know what the proportion of hospitalisations is coming from vaccine refusers. It's the elephant in the room that no politician wants to discuss because the answer is that people who have said no to taking the vaccine are going to have a very high risk of hospitalisation and death post-unlockdown. There's no way around that and we can't stay locked down forever to protect vaccine refusers.
If they're not getting vaccinated then they need to get their immunity naturally and that's what's happening. But the virus is running into a wall of immunity for everyone else.
It will burn itself out before too long. There's too much immunity in the herd for it not to do otherwise.0 -
Year 11 have finished in Durham?eek said:
One of the secondary schools in Durham is closed as 300 pupils and 8 teachers need to isolate.TOPPING said:I do know that as well as universities a lot of schools are very affected by it atm. Perhaps that is driving numbers. Friends of mine have had their children sent home, are isolating, the lot. I think some schools have closed but don't have details.
Those 300 pupils are I think half the current school now Year 11 have finished.
Year 11 are sitting mocks in Northumberland.0 -
But look at the black and hispanic vax rates in the big US cities. Not good. That's a first world India waiting to kick offrcs1000 said:
It's because rural and small town America is much more naturally socially distanced than Camden.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
US school holidays have also already started, and kids won't return until late August - which is a lucky break for the US.
That's when these places could get creamed.
The Delta Bug is vicious0 -
America's geography did not many sages predicting firestorms, floods and plagues in Florida, Texas and other republican US states when they junked lock down last year or early this year.rcs1000 said:
It's because rural and small town America is much more naturally socially distanced than Camden.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
US school holidays have also already started, and kids won't return until late August - which is a lucky break for the US.
That's when these places could get creamed.
It turned out their heating/thermostat assumptions about lockdown were simply utterly wrong, just as our assumptions about vaccination could be wrong.0 -
I would agreeNigel_Foremain said:
Article looks a little sensationalist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that happens it is devastating for labourFloater said:0 -
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.Leon said:
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccination-data-at-a-glance.html
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.1 -
That sounds logical but we have also had the start of the break up of schools with a huge number of social activities related to that. It may well be that these young people are not getting particularly ill but are spreading the virus around far more households where middle aged, more vulnerable people are either not vaccinated at all or at best have recently had 1 jab.fox327 said:
Sturgeon spent last year keeping Scotland under greater and longer restrictions than England, resulting in Scotland having about 30% fewer cases per 100,000 of population than England. This resulted in Scotland having less herd immunity. Now this means that the virus finds it easier to spread in Scotland, so there are more cases there.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't know but we all know the solution involves Scottish independence, am I right?MaxPB said:Man the case rate in Scotland just seems to have exploded. Wonder what's going on.
0 -
Nadhim Zahawi is doing very well to be fair0
-
No 10 condemns ‘appalling’ video of antivax protester accusing Jonathan Van-Tam of ‘genocide’
The antivaxxer previously filmed himself targeting Professor Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, as he walked through a street in Oxford earlier this month
Downing Street has condemned the “appalling” verbal abuse of England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan Van-Tamm, by an antivax protester.
A video circulated widely online showed Geza Tarjanyi filming himself targeting Mr Van-Tam as he walked into the Ministry of Defence building in Westminster on Wednesday.
The protester accused Professor Van-Tam of being a “traitor”, and told him he would end up in prison for “genocide”.
“Why continue lying to the British people? [They] are going to get justice for what you’ve done to this country. All of you liars are going to prison, I guarantee it,” Mr Tarjanyi can be heard saying in the video.
He also asked the Deputy Chief Medical Officer “what was really in that needle that you put into Matt Hancock,” after Professor Van-Tam gave the Health Secretary his first Covid jab in April.
The antivax protester then followed Professor Van-Tam into the reception of the Ministry of Defence, where he continued to heckle him.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/no-10-condemns-appalling-video-of-antivax-protester-accusing-jonathan-van-tam-of-genocide-10674370 -
And in English this means?geoffw said:Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)0 -
Yes, I have been thinking that possibly in the long run it might be a bad thing for Aus/NZ that they did so well in keeping the virus in check. The alternative narrative here was get the vaccine or Bozo might let a couple of hundred thousand more people take an "essential travel" journey to India and you might get some horrible variant when they all get back here.AnExileinD4 said:
There is going to be an interesting and difficult discussion in Australia and New Zealand around this point.Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
The message is simple: Get your yourself vaccinated to protect yourself from the incompetence of HM Government.0 -
...
8 -
I don't know about the school that has closed but I know all the local schools have finished their Year 11 assessments as have some in Ipswich.dixiedean said:
Year 11 have finished in Durham?eek said:
One of the secondary schools in Durham is closed as 300 pupils and 8 teachers need to isolate.TOPPING said:I do know that as well as universities a lot of schools are very affected by it atm. Perhaps that is driving numbers. Friends of mine have had their children sent home, are isolating, the lot. I think some schools have closed but don't have details.
Those 300 pupils are I think half the current school now Year 11 have finished.
Year 11 are sitting mocks in Northumberland.0 -
It's a terrible combination of unlockdown, vax hesitancy, and poor healthcare, in the big US inner citiesPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.Leon said:
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccination-data-at-a-glance.html
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
But maybe American exceptionalism will save them - there is no uptick yet (tho the CDC says Delta is now 20% of cases)0 -
5 consecutive pens missed by Spain.0
-
He is a rare talent within this government of lightweightsBig_G_NorthWales said:Nadhim Zahawi is doing very well to be fair
0 -
-
His appointment was derided by some here. Maybe he just got lucky?Nigel_Foremain said:
He is a rare talent within this government of lightweightsBig_G_NorthWales said:Nadhim Zahawi is doing very well to be fair
0 -
Its worth noting that when people like contrarian say that the US or states have lifted lockdown, that the US has genuine local governments in a way we're not used to. Many cities are still locked down, even when the rest of the state isn't, which can make sense since the cities are at more risk.Leon said:
It's a terrible combination of unlockdown, vax hesitancy, and poor healthcare, in the big US inner citiesPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.Leon said:
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccination-data-at-a-glance.html
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
But maybe American exceptionalism will save them - there is no uptick yet (tho the CDC says Delta is now 20% of cases)
Plus evidence seems to be that vaccination take up rates are higher in the cities too.
So hopefully that will mean that the higher take-up there will cancel out the risk. If those most protected are those most at risk, that's a good thing.0 -
On the other hand -Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, I have been thinking that possibly in the long run it might be a bad thing for Aus/NZ that they did so well in keeping the virus in check. The alternative narrative here was get the vaccine or Bozo might let a couple of hundred thousand more people take an "essential travel" journey to India and you might get some horrible variant when they all get back here.AnExileinD4 said:
There is going to be an interesting and difficult discussion in Australia and New Zealand around this point.Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
The message is simple: Get your yourself vaccinated to protect yourself from the incompetence of HM Government.
"Get your yourself vaccinated to protect yourself from the *competence* of your Government."
See South Korea, NZ, Australia etc etc1 -
Many apologies.eek said:
I don't know about the school that has closed but I know all the local schools have finished their Year 11 assessments as have some in Ipswich.dixiedean said:
Year 11 have finished in Durham?eek said:
One of the secondary schools in Durham is closed as 300 pupils and 8 teachers need to isolate.TOPPING said:I do know that as well as universities a lot of schools are very affected by it atm. Perhaps that is driving numbers. Friends of mine have had their children sent home, are isolating, the lot. I think some schools have closed but don't have details.
Those 300 pupils are I think half the current school now Year 11 have finished.
Year 11 are sitting mocks in Northumberland.
Shamefully, I don't know what year my youngest is...
Year 12 are doing mocks.1 -
A year and a half into this wretched pandemic, and Argentina has just posted its worst ever day for deaths: 791 (the equivalent in the UK would be 1,400), and it is still rising
What a colossal human tragedy this is. Sometimes you have to step back and gawp. We are still in the firestorm, entire nations have been quarantined for a year, with no obvious exit. Millions have died. And are dying
Because of a tiny microbe probably leaked in a stupid, pointless lab in China, which was trying to make viruses nastier
It's like the First World War, springing from a tragic and obscure assassination0 -
They can't buy a goal atm. Should be 3-0 already.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It happens to us all...dixiedean said:
Many apologies.eek said:
I don't know about the school that has closed but I know all the local schools have finished their Year 11 assessments as have some in Ipswich.dixiedean said:
Year 11 have finished in Durham?eek said:
One of the secondary schools in Durham is closed as 300 pupils and 8 teachers need to isolate.TOPPING said:I do know that as well as universities a lot of schools are very affected by it atm. Perhaps that is driving numbers. Friends of mine have had their children sent home, are isolating, the lot. I think some schools have closed but don't have details.
Those 300 pupils are I think half the current school now Year 11 have finished.
Year 11 are sitting mocks in Northumberland.
Shamefully, I don't know what year my youngest is...
Year 12 are doing mocks.
0 -
It looks from the street names like they've covered a few square yards of one of the Batley wards and extrapolated the whole of the constituency from that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would agreeNigel_Foremain said:
Article looks a little sensationalist.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that happens it is devastating for labourFloater said:0 -
∫ dx f(x) δ(x) = f(0)DavidL said:
And in English this means?geoffw said:Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)10 -
So cases will have started falling by August, when the vaccination programme will be nearly complete? The government and all the doctors and scientists certainly hope so. If not, some difficult decisions will be looming.Philip_Thompson said:
The noteworthy thing is how prevalent it is in 15-19 year olds most whom of course are not eligible for the vaccine and it seems increasingly likely they're not going to be.MaxPB said:
Case growth in England has ticked up from 33% to 36% if these bigger case numbers were going to feed into hospitalisations then we would already be seeing it happen as two weeks ago cases were already around 6.5k.rkrkrk said:As an aside... 16k cases today... % change going back up... numbers in hospital are rising too, but admissions don't seem to be going up much... I guess will be about a week before this big increase in cases feeds through.
The reason is this heatmap:
Groups that are susceptible to hospitalisation aren't getting infected very much at all because the vaccine are highly effective at preventing symptomatic infection.
At the same point in the previous wave for the Beta variant the same heatmap looked like this:
Which led to rolling average of 450 hospitalisations per day vs about 185 at the moment.
Additionally, we don't know what the proportion of hospitalisations is coming from vaccine refusers. It's the elephant in the room that no politician wants to discuss because the answer is that people who have said no to taking the vaccine are going to have a very high risk of hospitalisation and death post-unlockdown. There's no way around that and we can't stay locked down forever to protect vaccine refusers.
If they're not getting vaccinated then they need to get their immunity naturally and that's what's happening. But the virus is running into a wall of immunity for everyone else.
It will burn itself out before too long. There's too much immunity in the herd for it not to do otherwise.0 -
I would say this goes above and beyond "legitimate protest", I hope the police are on the case. he deserves locking up!TheScreamingEagles said:No 10 condemns ‘appalling’ video of antivax protester accusing Jonathan Van-Tam of ‘genocide’
The antivaxxer previously filmed himself targeting Professor Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, as he walked through a street in Oxford earlier this month
Downing Street has condemned the “appalling” verbal abuse of England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan Van-Tamm, by an antivax protester.
A video circulated widely online showed Geza Tarjanyi filming himself targeting Mr Van-Tam as he walked into the Ministry of Defence building in Westminster on Wednesday.
The protester accused Professor Van-Tam of being a “traitor”, and told him he would end up in prison for “genocide”.
“Why continue lying to the British people? [They] are going to get justice for what you’ve done to this country. All of you liars are going to prison, I guarantee it,” Mr Tarjanyi can be heard saying in the video.
He also asked the Deputy Chief Medical Officer “what was really in that needle that you put into Matt Hancock,” after Professor Van-Tam gave the Health Secretary his first Covid jab in April.
The antivax protester then followed Professor Van-Tam into the reception of the Ministry of Defence, where he continued to heckle him.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/no-10-condemns-appalling-video-of-antivax-protester-accusing-jonathan-van-tam-of-genocide-10674372 -
Other than his unfortunate association with Jeffrey Archer, he has an impressive business background and also a degree in chemical engineering. He also comes across well on TV. He comes across as competent and talented, which means he probably will not rise too far while Boris Johnson is in charge.RobD said:
His appointment was derided by some here. Maybe he just got lucky?Nigel_Foremain said:
He is a rare talent within this government of lightweightsBig_G_NorthWales said:Nadhim Zahawi is doing very well to be fair
0 -
Snap, crackle and pop!DavidL said:
And in English this means?geoffw said:Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
(5th to 7th time derivatives)
edit: fourth to sixth actually. Jerk or jolt is the third time derivative. The delta function is an idealised pulse.0 -
When you say "assumptions about vaccination(s) could be wrong", what exactly are you saying?contrarian said:
America's geography did not many sages predicting firestorms, floods and plagues in Florida, Texas and other republican US states when they junked lock down last year or early this year.rcs1000 said:
It's because rural and small town America is much more naturally socially distanced than Camden.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
US school holidays have also already started, and kids won't return until late August - which is a lucky break for the US.
That's when these places could get creamed.
It turned out their heating/thermostat assumptions about lockdown were simply utterly wrong, just as our assumptions about vaccination could be wrong.
That they don't work, or their protection will turn out to be temporary?
It's a slightly odd turn of phrase.
And we now have some pretty long datasets on vaccinations. The original Pfizer-BioNTech cohort is still being studied and data released, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection there. So, it'd be surprising if there was a big let up in vaccines generally.1 -
I suspect S Korea could be OK.Malmesbury said:
On the other hand -Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, I have been thinking that possibly in the long run it might be a bad thing for Aus/NZ that they did so well in keeping the virus in check. The alternative narrative here was get the vaccine or Bozo might let a couple of hundred thousand more people take an "essential travel" journey to India and you might get some horrible variant when they all get back here.AnExileinD4 said:
There is going to be an interesting and difficult discussion in Australia and New Zealand around this point.Andy_Cooke said:
If it does keep unfolding like this, the antivaxxers are going to have an unpleasant time.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
"How would you like to get your antibodies? Vaccine or virus?"
It's looking like everyone's going to end up seeing the virus sooner or later. Only choice is whether to leave ones' system fully naive to a novel virus (ask the Native Americans in the 17th and 18th centuries how good an idea that is), or to have it prepared and ready.
The message is simple: Get your yourself vaccinated to protect yourself from the incompetence of HM Government.
"Get your yourself vaccinated to protect yourself from the *competence* of your Government."
See South Korea, NZ, Australia etc etc
They've never cut themselves off from the outside world like the other two, and still seem to have kept numbers under some sort of control. Whether that can stay the case with Delta is an interesting question.
Vaccine progress not great, but not terrible.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2021/06/119_310943.html0 -
It's weakened -> it's obviously not broken. It looks to be around 3% of cases => hospitalization, so I would imagine we would break 400 hospitalizations by end of month.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think the link between cases and hospitalisations is now broken and we have got strong evidence for that. What's also very encouraging is that under 40s are all getting Pfizer and Moderna which is a very fast acting vaccine, within 10 days efficacy with a single dose reaches a very good level while it takes 28 days with AZ to get a comparable level of efficacy. We're also still doing around 1.5m first doses per week at the moment and we've only got about 5m left to do in total before all of the supply can be switched to second doses.Andy_Cooke said:The jolt upwards in cases (especially in Scotland and the North East of England) is disappointing.
On the flip side, the ratio of hospitalisations and number of people in hospital continues to reduce.
If even 4% of cases ended up hospitalised, we'd be past 300 admissions per day in England alone by now, while the rolling 7-day average actually tweaked down to 183 today.
The number hospitalised would be north of 2,000 in England now; today, it dropped very slightly to 1,255.
I don't mean to downplay the potential problems that could arise still with rapid growth. After all, even a 25-year-old man with no medical issues still has a 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation if unvaccinated - but every day there are fewer unvaccinated 25-year olds, and the same goes for all remaining 18-29 adults.
It's possible we're seeing what happens when an ever-increasing chunk of the younger population have 1 dose, which doesn't reduce symptomatic infection by a huge amount - but does reduce the risk of hospitalisation by a hefty 80% or so. And we know that even breakthrough infections are considerably less serious in the vaccinated than they would have been if left unvaccinated.
Hopefully the ratio between hospitalisations and cases will continue to drop still further, and we'll end up with cases numbers becoming less and less relevant.
0 -
The zero covid hell of no day to day restrictions.Gardenwalker said:
The counterfactial is the experience of this country in the past 18 months.TOPPING said:fpt
I hear you.Gardenwalker said:
My 86 yo Dad is hoping to get his jab in NZ soon.TOPPING said:
But later.Gardenwalker said:
The same way as everyone else?Andy_JS said:
I can't see how Australia is ever going to escape from this situation.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC reporting that sweeping new restrictions are being introduced across Sydney as a fast growing new outbreak develops with no entry to Sydney and residents largely banned from leaving the city
The Health minister describes it as a very real and present danger
It is apparently a Delta covid variant
It does make you wonder if this new Delta variant of concern, just discovered, is a real threat to vaccines
Spoke to a mate of mine in Brisbane. He is furious. Joked that it will be 2023 before he gets his jab.
Meanwhile they are in a prison which was supposed to keep them safe. But hasn't. Absolutely fucking miserable.
I'd rather be us.
My family are quite happy as life has proceeded v largely as normal for the past 18 months, save the ability to travel overseas.
There are many reasons why for me that would be far from normal, being trapped in the country forbidden to leave or enter. But I can see that for many people as long as they could go to the pub or shops or have people over everything would seem fine.
For certain PB-ers, where no one is allowed to arrive or leave especially on holiday I imagine it would be like living in some kind of wet dream.
Not for me tho'.
No serious person would prefer our situation, and had I know what was ahead of us in March 2020 I would have quit my job and taken my family to NZ.
It’s like night and day.
Im glad we avoided the nightmare of open venues, unfettered restraunts and full sports stadiums.5 -
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.Leon said:
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccination-data-at-a-glance.html
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.1 -
The ONS antibody survey had scotland on only 79.1% with antibodies.LostPassword said:
Yes, but also everywhere else looks like - Falkirk, Angus, Fife, South Lanarkshire, etc, scan down the chart looking for rapid recent increases and they're all in Scotland (and Wakefield).Leon said:
Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day?Malmesbury said:UK cases by specimen date
Note: Need to recalibrate the range for colours.. 500 was the max...
Lumme
Everyone unvaxxed in Scotland is going to catch this.0 -
I was assured by luminaries on here that Edinburgh had peaked some time ago.0
-
What's the lockdown/masking situation in, eg, LA? Have you all been released, possibly prematurely?rcs1000 said:
Well, I'm not going to deny that a lot of the big cities are going to have problems. But small towns aren't completely out of the woods.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes inner city African Americans refusing the vaccine is much, much more concerning than deep south hicksville rednecks refusing it.Leon said:
America also has other viral advantages - warmer and sunnier in the south, everyone drives and no one takes the bus/train....Philip_Thompson said:
Small towns are very socially distanced naturally.Leon said:
How could Delta not run riot? That's what it DOES. C'est son metierrcs1000 said:
It's probably even worse than that: in the big urban areas of the American South (Birmingham, Atlanta, etc.) vaccination rates are reasonably high.contrarian said:
Jill Biden was in Tennessee yesterday pointing out only 3 in 10 of the state's population are vaccinated.Leon said:*DELTA VARIANT SEEN IN 20% OF RECENT US COVID CASES: CDC CHIEF*
America may be a lab for vaccination in the same way as it was a lab for lockdown.
But if you go to small towns and cities, then vaccination rates collapse. Just 23% of residents of Lafayette County AK, 18% of Hempstead County, and 14% of Winston County Alabama. In Winston County, not even a third of the over 65s are vaccinated.
If Delta runs riot in some of these places, it'll be ugly.
These fucking bugs have a remorseless logic
Vaccinating the cities will protect the towns, because the key pools of infection are the cities which can then spread to the towns as people go from a town to a city or vice-versa, but once it dies off in the cities which it will before too long, where are the towns going to get infected from?
.. but they have a poor healthcare system, they are very obese (and this has been gravely worsened by lockdowns), there are lots of vulnerable people who won't get vaxxed: addicts, homeless
I think it could get very messy in cities like LA, Frisco, Chicago, Miami
"The disparities are also reflected in vaccination rates. As of last week, 43% of Black and 52% of Latino residents of L.A. County had received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 64% of white, 61% of Native American and 74% of Asian American residents."
The black vax rate in Chicago is levelling out at about 40%
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccination-data-at-a-glance.html
Delta will sweep through the cities. Small isolated towns not as much.
It just takes one kid coming home from visiting friends in Atlanta to spread it round his entire class, and then the entire school.
Which would normally be fine... but if granny is living at home and isn't vaccinated, it could get pretty ugly.0 -
Ha! That's the definition of a delta function, but "jerk"?YBarddCwsc said:
∫ dx f(x) δ(x) = f(0)DavidL said:
And in English this means?geoffw said:Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
I don't remember anyone calling the derivative of acceleration that.0 -
To follow on from this:Andy_Cooke said:
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.
This is a bit of a rough visualisation of the issue.
The translucent bars are the cases in England against a given day.
The darker bars are the hospitalisations in England seven days later.
As we can see, as cases climbed, hospitalisations climbed much slower. And the levelling out in the most recent week comes off the highest level of cases yet.
3 -
Ooh, I do, now I come to think about it.Flatlander said:
Ha! That's the definition of a delta function, but "jerk"?YBarddCwsc said:
∫ dx f(x) δ(x) = f(0)DavidL said:
And in English this means?geoffw said:Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
I don't remember anyone calling the derivative of acceleration that.0 -
What a gift to Spain0
-
Newcastle/Sunderland keepers are shit.
That was a spectacular own goal.
Up there with Pickford's effort in the 2018 Merseyside derby.0 -
That's encouraging. TaAndy_Cooke said:
To follow on from this:Andy_Cooke said:
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.
This is a bit of a rough visualisation of the issue.
The translucent bars are the cases in England against a given day.
The darker bars are the hospitalisations in England seven days later.
As we can see, as cases climbed, hospitalisations climbed much slower. And the levelling out in the most recent week comes off the highest level of cases yet.1 -
That's a proper "is this,,,,match fixing?" howler though
https://twitter.com/Worville/status/14077383674759577670 -
Perhaps it was just Physicists. That or my memory is shot. Probably the latter...Cookie said:
Ooh, I do, now I come to think about it.Flatlander said:
Ha! That's the definition of a delta function, but "jerk"?YBarddCwsc said:
∫ dx f(x) δ(x) = f(0)DavidL said:
And in English this means?geoffw said:Talking about "the jolt upwards" (Andy_Cooke) and that "Glasgow and Edinburgh basically doubled in a single day" (Leon) we should note that a
jump-discontinuity in acceleration can be modeled using a Dirac delta function in jerk, scaled to the height of the jump. Integrating jerk over time across the Dirac delta yields the jump-discontinuity.
per Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)
I don't remember anyone calling the derivative of acceleration that.0 -
Maybe I'm misreading this -> but how have you got hospitalizations for the future?Andy_Cooke said:
To follow on from this:Andy_Cooke said:
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.
This is a bit of a rough visualisation of the issue.
The translucent bars are the cases in England against a given day.
The darker bars are the hospitalisations in England seven days later.
As we can see, as cases climbed, hospitalisations climbed much slower. And the levelling out in the most recent week comes off the highest level of cases yet.
E.g. bar for 19 June -> hospitalizations for 26 June?0 -
Sure. We didn’t have Delta at the time we gave up the CL. Now it’s 99%. If the UEFA guys want to risk catching it…TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, I agree with Steve Baker. I need to to re-evaluate my life.
But can anyone explain why we gave up the Champions League final by not agreeing to similar demands from UEFA but have agreed to these demands for the Euros?0 -
Matt is simply the best at what he does. Perfectly captures what we are all thinking.Scott_xP said:...1 -
"Interesting" perspective:
And sure, this may well change (and quickly), but would I prefer to be in the position of France or Germany right now in terms of infection rates and % vaccinated, or the position UK is in... I'd go for the former.
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1407737502102863875?s=200 -
An unseen horror show is unfolding in Colombia
100,000 dead and still peaking. Bodies left in the streets. Like Ecuador a year ago
https://twitter.com/mikeariza/status/1407731959070183426?s=20
Colombia es el tercer país del mundo con más muertes reportadas por COVID-19. Y está detrás de Brasil, que tiene 214 millones de habitantes, e India, con cerca de 1.400 millones. A TODAS LUCES ESTAMOS ENFRENTANDO UNA CATÁSTROFE DE PROPORCIONES HISTÓRICAS"0 -
Late afternoon all
I believe an exemption has applied to "elite sports" through much of the coronavirus period. For example, French and Irish owners, trainers, jockeys and stable staff were able to be at Royal Ascot last week.
The same exemption will apply to this coming weekend's Irish Derby but if you are a prospective buyer at the Tattersalls Ireland bloodstock sale, you can bid from your hotel room but you can't come on to the actual sale site.
It's the anomalies as always that undermine the main message.0 -
Is it any different to the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics?Leon said:A year and a half into this wretched pandemic, and Argentina has just posted its worst ever day for deaths: 791 (the equivalent in the UK would be 1,400), and it is still rising
What a colossal human tragedy this is. Sometimes you have to step back and gawp. We are still in the firestorm, entire nations have been quarantined for a year, with no obvious exit. Millions have died. And are dying
Because of a tiny microbe probably leaked in a stupid, pointless lab in China, which was trying to make viruses nastier
It's like the First World War, springing from a tragic and obscure assassination0 -
Is that a bad joke?Andy_JS said:
Is it any different to the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics?Leon said:A year and a half into this wretched pandemic, and Argentina has just posted its worst ever day for deaths: 791 (the equivalent in the UK would be 1,400), and it is still rising
What a colossal human tragedy this is. Sometimes you have to step back and gawp. We are still in the firestorm, entire nations have been quarantined for a year, with no obvious exit. Millions have died. And are dying
Because of a tiny microbe probably leaked in a stupid, pointless lab in China, which was trying to make viruses nastier
It's like the First World War, springing from a tragic and obscure assassination0 -
Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.0 -
Yes, it's much more deadly.Andy_JS said:
Is it any different to the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics?Leon said:A year and a half into this wretched pandemic, and Argentina has just posted its worst ever day for deaths: 791 (the equivalent in the UK would be 1,400), and it is still rising
What a colossal human tragedy this is. Sometimes you have to step back and gawp. We are still in the firestorm, entire nations have been quarantined for a year, with no obvious exit. Millions have died. And are dying
Because of a tiny microbe probably leaked in a stupid, pointless lab in China, which was trying to make viruses nastier
It's like the First World War, springing from a tragic and obscure assassination2 -
Well, a week or so ago it looked liked it had. And now it has changed again.Alistair said:I was assured by luminaries on here that Edinburgh had peaked some time ago.
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A bit like peak SNP.LostPassword said:
Well, a week or so ago it looked liked it had. And now it has changed again.Alistair said:I was assured by luminaries on here that Edinburgh had peaked some time ago.
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South America is suffering badly.Leon said:A year and a half into this wretched pandemic, and Argentina has just posted its worst ever day for deaths: 791 (the equivalent in the UK would be 1,400), and it is still rising
What a colossal human tragedy this is. Sometimes you have to step back and gawp. We are still in the firestorm, entire nations have been quarantined for a year, with no obvious exit. Millions have died. And are dying
Because of a tiny microbe probably leaked in a stupid, pointless lab in China, which was trying to make viruses nastier
It's like the First World War, springing from a tragic and obscure assassination0 -
By the way, I'm not sure the assassination of the heir to one of the major Empires of Europe can be described as "obscure".0
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Ta. What I'm thinking is the school half term in the first week of June would genuinely but temporarily slow growth in measured cases in the second week and hospitalisations about now.Andy_Cooke said:
Cases-hospitalisations is indeed about 7 days, but rather than thinking that cases had plateaued, we thought the rate of increase had reduced and stabilised (ie still growing exponentially, but slower than before).Stuartinromford said:
Having said that, isn't the standard timelineMalmesbury said:COVID Summary
Cases up alot.
Of most interest is that the admissions for England have plateaued or started falling across the entire age range.
Infection - Positive test takes about 7 days
Infection - Hospitalisation takes about 14 days?
We thought tests had plateaued about a week ago...
Snazzy multicoloured graph (I coloured each week differently so as to make weekly artefacts easier to spot at a glance) of reported cases in England since the low point:
The weekly drumbeat is down to people choosing not to go for tests on weekends, or being sent from work, so the dashed black line shows the rolling 7-day average. Hospitalisations tend to follow the 7-day average rather than being perfectly lagged from the specific cases on the day, as if you leave it later or go earlier, the time between infection and case specimen date will vary.0 -
The Rose Bowl is doing a good impression of Sabina Park c.1998.0
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I think the countries there are just rich enough to be able to count Covid deaths, and have them be more noticeable in a way that they wouldn't be in a poorer country that still had higher mortality generally from other causes, but not rich enough to act effectively to control the disease.TimS said:Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.1 -
Off the top of my head, much, much higher densities than us (shanty towns etc).TimS said:Worrying though it is right now, I wonder if it may in the long term be a good thing that younger unvaxxed people are now catching and developing antibodies to the Delta variant. 1. It's the summer, and all the evidence suggests it's better to have a long fairly gentle simmer of cases in summer than a huge surge in winter, and 2. Delta already has some vaccine escape properties, and future variants will almost certainly evolve to escape immunity further, so having a pool of say 10% of the population who have been exposed to a more recent variant alongside the large proportion with enough immunity from vaccination to avoid serious illness and death might help us when the inevitable next big one (perhaps Delta+) comes along.
This surge is also an effective vax efficacy experiment. It is showing us in real time what the impact of each vaccine is on infection, hospitalisation and death. It means that when things finally do settle down, which they inevitably will, we will have more confidence than we would otherwise in what might happen next time there is a new variant or an uptick.
Latin America (ex-Chile) does look like a disaster zone though. Not so much a gentle simmer as a protracted rolling boil. Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Mexico show what might have been our fate had we gone for herd immunity via infection. I want to know why that region has done so badly for so long. I know there are high levels of obesity across the continent but it can't just be that.
I also wouldn't fancy being halfway up the Andes with a breathing condition.0
