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  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    If UKIP are polling at similar levels in 6 months time, it could be that Tories would rather they kicked on to 20% than fell back to 8%

    A bit more and your dream would come true. UKIP will replace the Tory party.
    Oh, it's inevitable. It's all over bar the shouting as far as I'm concerned -the only questions is how quickly UKIP can do it.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @MichaelLCrick: Good days to bury bad news: Xmas Eve: Lab says won't publish rpt on alleged comp hacking by H Jones son. Today, eyes elsewhere, she quits
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @DavidWardMP: The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? - probably yes
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeSmithson said:

    Great article by Alex Massie about the lunatic CON policy on the ECHR.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/britain-has-very-little-to-fear-from-the-echr-so-why-are-so-many-tories-so-afraid-of-it/

    Truly barmy.

    I must print this rejoinder to Alex Massie by a member of the public. (not me) :)
    It will make Mike squirm.

    LadyDingDong • 3 hours ago
    Tories do not fear the ECHR you grade A numpty, they fear the loss of sovereignty it represents. We are the most civilised democracy on earth and will take no lessons from foreign judges and bureaucrats on how we should govern our affairs. One begins to understand the feelings of your fellow Scots when reading this drivel. Begone to the northern hinterlands you apologist for the undemocratic EU.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TGOHF said:

    @DavidWardMP: The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? - probably yes

    I suppose, Mr. Ghost, the response to Ward would be "If I lived in Israel and your rocket landed in my town would I want my government to hit back?" Probably, yes. This Ward fellow seems to be a blithering idiot.
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    TGOHF said:

    @DavidWardMP: The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? - probably yes

    He should be careful saying that sort of thing outside of the House of Commons. Labour created the wonderful thought crime of "encouraging terrorism" (Terrorism Act 2006, s. 1), although my suspicion is that it is usually essential to be a young Muslim man if you want to be sure that proceedings will be instituted against you.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HurstLlama said:

    TGOHF said:

    @DavidWardMP: The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? - probably yes

    I suppose, Mr. Ghost, the response to Ward would be "If I lived in Israel and your rocket landed in my town would I want my government to hit back?" Probably, yes. This Ward fellow seems to be a blithering idiot.
    Not very liberal or democrat of Mr Ward..
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    TGOHF said:

    @DavidWardMP: The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? - probably yes

    Very brave of DavidWardMP happily living 2000 miles from Gaza. These type of people are all big talk, I'm sure his idea of a rocket one that you light the blue touch paper and then retire.
    As we veterans say: "get some in".
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    This poll very interesting, even more interesting, if you give scores of 38 Tory, 35 Labour and 13 LD on UK Polling Report, perfectly possible if the Tories squeeze UKIP vote, you get the Tories and Labour exactly tied on 300 seats each, 26 seats short of a majority, but the LDs only on 23 seats. So no majority for Labour or the Tories and not even a coalition with the LDs possible, what then, chaos ensues? http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Living under siege conditions with your land occupied might make you want to throw the odd rock?
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    Last poll was an outlier for UKIP methinks.

    This poll is very, very in line with Lord Ashcroft's latest (National) polling.

    Maybe TNS do The Good Lords fieldwork?

    We need more Lord gags.

    Your "what the Good Lord giveth, the Good Lord taketh away" yesterday was an LOL from me.
  • Toms
    Toms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2014
    Cyclefree said:

    On the day of the Trojan Horse report this is worth reading - http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/07/celebrating-diversity-means-imposing-misogyny/

    This is laser writing: focussed, intense, coherent.
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    MikeK said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Great article by Alex Massie about the lunatic CON policy on the ECHR.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/britain-has-very-little-to-fear-from-the-echr-so-why-are-so-many-tories-so-afraid-of-it/

    Truly barmy.

    I must print this rejoinder to Alex Massie by a member of the public. (not me) :)
    It will make Mike squirm.

    LadyDingDong • 3 hours ago
    Tories do not fear the ECHR you grade A numpty, they fear the loss of sovereignty it represents. We are the most civilised democracy on earth and will take no lessons from foreign judges and bureaucrats on how we should govern our affairs. One begins to understand the feelings of your fellow Scots when reading this drivel. Begone to the northern hinterlands you apologist for the undemocratic EU.
    I'm
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    At least they have the disappearing kipper trend of the other pollsters.
    Yep. I'm sure the Kippers are dismayed to be on only 19%, just 10 back from the Tories.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BobaFett said:


    I'm

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    At least they have the disappearing kipper trend of the other pollsters.
    Yep. I'm sure the Kippers are dismayed to be on only 19%, just 10 back from the Tories.
    TNS have only done 2 polls this year..

    23 19
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2014
    MikeK said:

    TGOHF said:

    @DavidWardMP: The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? - probably yes

    Very brave of DavidWardMP happily living 2000 miles from Gaza. These type of people are all big talk, I'm sure his idea of a rocket one that you light the blue touch paper and then retire.
    As we veterans say: "get some in".
    Intersting fact:
    Cost of a single Iron Dome defence missile: 20000$
    Cost of a single Hamas rocket: 800$
    ratio:1/25

    GDP per capita of Israel: 38000$
    GDP per capita of Gaza: 875$
    ratio: 1/43

    Israel wins the war on the cost of weapons for now.

    However Hamas technology has vastly improved in the last 10 years from rock throwing to low cost missiles that can hit anywhere in Israel.
    Next 10 years will be very interesting in how both sides improve their military technology.

    Oh look, lasers:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    HYUFD said:

    This poll very interesting, even more interesting, if you give scores of 38 Tory, 35 Labour and 13 LD on UK Polling Report, perfectly possible if the Tories squeeze UKIP vote, you get the Tories and Labour exactly tied on 300 seats each, 26 seats short of a majority, but the LDs only on 23 seats. So no majority for Labour or the Tories and not even a coalition with the LDs possible, what then, chaos ensues? http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

    HurstLlama becomes benign dictator, and we his servile acolytes
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    2 boa constrictors found in East Ham Park http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/10984139/Two-boa-constrictors-found-in-London-park.html
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    Flawed statistics, "Iron Dome" is only fired when the trajectory of the incoming missile is on course for a built up area.
    (but I get the general drift)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    More LD voters prefer Cameron as PM than Clegg
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10981037/More-Lib-Dem-voters-prefer-David-Cameron-as-PM-than-Nick-Clegg-survey.html
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:


    I'm

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    At least they have the disappearing kipper trend of the other pollsters.
    Yep. I'm sure the Kippers are dismayed to be on only 19%, just 10 back from the Tories.
    TNS have only done 2 polls this year..

    23 19
    A living nightmare for the Kippers...
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    HYUFD said:

    This poll very interesting, even more interesting, if you give scores of 38 Tory, 35 Labour and 13 LD on UK Polling Report, perfectly possible if the Tories squeeze UKIP vote, you get the Tories and Labour exactly tied on 300 seats each, 26 seats short of a majority, but the LDs only on 23 seats. So no majority for Labour or the Tories and not even a coalition with the LDs possible, what then, chaos ensues? http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

    HurstLlama becomes benign dictator, and we his servile acolytes
    Leave me out of it, old boy. I am a strict monarchist. If you want a dictator then TSE is your man.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    2 boa constrictors found in East Ham Park http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/10984139/Two-boa-constrictors-found-in-London-park.html

    Pet owners again to blame.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    NBC New Hampshire GOP primary poll

    Rand Paul 14%
    Chris Christie 13%
    Jeb Bush 10%
    Ted Cruz 9%
    Paul Ryan 7%
    Marco Rubio 7%
    Scott Walker 6%
    Rick Perry 5%
    Bobby Jindal 4%
    Rick Santorum 3%
    Undecided 22%

    Iowa Caucus

    Jeb Bush 12%
    Rand Paul 12%
    Paul Ryan 11%
    Rick Santorum 9%
    Chris Christie 8%
    Rick Perry 7%
    Ted Cruz 7%
    Marco Rubio 7%
    Scott Walker 5%
    Bobby Jindal 1%
    Undecided 20%

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:


    I'm

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    At least they have the disappearing kipper trend of the other pollsters.
    Yep. I'm sure the Kippers are dismayed to be on only 19%, just 10 back from the Tories.
    TNS have only done 2 polls this year..

    23 19
    A living nightmare for the Kippers...
    You don't get trends do you ?

    Captain static analysis..
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Speedy said:

    GDP per capita of Israel: 38000$
    GDP per capita of Gaza: 875$
    ratio: 1/43

    Israel wins the war on the cost of weapons for now.

    Errr: you just used GDP per capita.

    On that basis, Monaco would be able to outspend the US, as it has a higher GDP per capita.

    Nevertheless, your point is a good one. If you did it on a straight GDP basis, you would end up around 200-to-1, as there are approximately five times as many Israelis as there are Gaza residents.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    NBC New Hampshire Democrats

    Hillary Clinton 74%
    Joe Biden 18%
    Undecided 8%

    Iowa

    Hillary Clinton 70%
    Joe Biden 20%
    Undecided 10%
  • perdix
    perdix Posts: 1,806
    Alanbrooke said:

    Borrowing figures miss target

    Student loans a mess.

    No-one sacked.

    Osbornomics in action.

    Alansbroke of ideas but must keep on being negative.

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, worth recalling Arafat, who declined a peace deal, was worth more on his death than the whole GDP of Palestine.
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:


    I'm

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    At least they have the disappearing kipper trend of the other pollsters.
    Yep. I'm sure the Kippers are dismayed to be on only 19%, just 10 back from the Tories.
    TNS have only done 2 polls this year..

    23 19
    A living nightmare for the Kippers...
    You don't get trends do you ?

    Captain static analysis..
    I do. I just think pinning your hopes on a 4pt fall in one of only two TNS polls is somewhat optimistic, but up to you.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    General Election Iowa

    Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
    Rand Paul (R) 45%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
    Chris Christie (R) 43%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    Jeb Bush (R) 42%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    Marco Rubio (R) 40%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    Ted Cruz 37%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
    Scott Walker (R) 37%

    New Hampshire

    Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    Rand Paul (R) 43%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    Chris Christie (R) 42%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    Jeb Bush (R) 42%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
    Ted Cruz 38%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    Scott Walker (R) 39%

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GDP per capita of Israel: 38000$
    GDP per capita of Gaza: 875$
    ratio: 1/43

    Israel wins the war on the cost of weapons for now.

    Errr: you just used GDP per capita.

    On that basis, Monaco would be able to outspend the US, as it has a higher GDP per capita.

    Nevertheless, your point is a good one. If you did it on a straight GDP basis, you would end up around 200-to-1, as there are approximately five times as many Israelis as there are Gaza residents.
    I compare the cost of the main weapon of offense of Hamas, the main weapon of defence of Israel and their affordability for each side. With that measure Israel can afford to defend itself easier than Hamas can attack it.
  • Fenster
    Fenster Posts: 2,115
    Cyclefree said:

    On the day of the Trojan Horse report this is worth reading - http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/07/celebrating-diversity-means-imposing-misogyny/

    Great article, thanks for the link.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:


    I'm

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Bad kipper TNS, only 19 (-4)

    @TNS_UK: New TNS #poll: LAB have 7 point lead with 36% (+1), CON 29% (nc), UKIP 19% (-4), LIB DEM 7% (+1), OTHER 9% (+1) http://t.co/bxUgvCeNZx
    At least they have the disappearing kipper trend of the other pollsters.
    Yep. I'm sure the Kippers are dismayed to be on only 19%, just 10 back from the Tories.
    TNS have only done 2 polls this year..

    23 19
    A living nightmare for the Kippers...
    You don't get trends do you ?

    Captain static analysis..
    I do. I just think pinning your hopes on a 4pt fall in one of only two TNS polls is somewhat optimistic, but up to you.
    Can you name a pollster showing the Kipper share rising ?

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    NBC New Hampshire Democrats

    Hillary Clinton 74%
    Joe Biden 18%
    Undecided 8%

    Iowa

    Hillary Clinton 70%
    Joe Biden 20%
    Undecided 10%

    No surprise, I dont know why Biden is running (he sure is looking like he is running, he's taken foreign affairs from Obama already).

    Its Clinton vs someone (Bush, Paul or Huckabee my guess).
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TGOHF
    Where did all those "Kippers" migrate to?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    New Thread
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    General Election Iowa

    Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
    Rand Paul (R) 45%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
    Chris Christie (R) 43%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    Jeb Bush (R) 42%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    Marco Rubio (R) 40%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    Ted Cruz 37%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
    Scott Walker (R) 37%

    New Hampshire

    Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    Rand Paul (R) 43%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    Chris Christie (R) 42%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    Jeb Bush (R) 42%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
    Ted Cruz 38%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    Scott Walker (R) 39%

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

    Look at the details of the poll plus the extra one from Colorado and you see the same pattern.

    In N.H., Iowa and Colorado Rand Paul is the most popular and most electable from the GOP side compared with Hillary. Chris Christie and Ted Cruz most unpopular and unelectable.
    For the nomination its a battle between Paul, Bush (Huckabee wasn't included in the NBC poll).
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    BobaFett Sounds interesting, presumably after a coronation by OGH
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy Indeed, they should face a heavy fine or even jail, children could have been in that park
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2014
    Speedy I doubt Biden will run, expect a token challenge from Bernie Sanders. I doubt Jeb will run either. The battle could well end up as Paul v Christie, with Paul winning Iowa and Christie NH, Cruz could perhaps take SC too to get in the frame, Rubio will likely be out by Florida, but the probable VP pick of whoever wins. In the general, Christie's numbers are not that bad, apart from Paul he runs Hillary closest in both states, and before Bridgegate he was by far the most competitive on the GOP side
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