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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds tha

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited July 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

The big message from latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling is that LAB is now being hurt more than CON by rise of UKIP in key seats

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Labour going down the tubes in the Marginals?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    Can I just say to all those Labour supporters who thought it was a hoot that UKIP was splitting the Tory vote -

    Hahahahahahahahahaha!
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Interesting numbers on Q2 which taken at face value indicates some MP's are a drag on the ticket. Not sure I buy some of those findings especially as the candidates weren't named.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MarqueeMark said:

    Can I just say to all those Labour supporters who thought it was a hoot that UKIP was splitting the Tory vote -

    Hahahahahahahahahaha!

    You think Cameron would prefer UKIP to poll at 15% or 5%?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Now that @LordAshcroft polling finds UKIP in lead at Thanet S will Nigel Farage end speculation that this is where he'll stand?

    UKIP will do well to delay this news for as long as possible, it'll be a minor news event when it happens with the associated hullaballoo - moreover it is under UKIP's control - the closer this can be put to election day, the better.

    They should certainly be doing groundwork in Thanet South but the announcement can wait. I reckon they'll do it at UKIP's conference so as to gain maximum publicity - or possibly when the Conservative conference is on to steal publicity.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Its a shame the noble lord does not do polling in Great Grimbsy and Rotherham.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Now that @LordAshcroft polling finds UKIP in lead at Thanet S will Nigel Farage end speculation that this is where he'll stand?

    UKIP will do well to delay this news for as long as possible, it'll be a minor news event when it happens with the associated hullaballoo - moreover it is under UKIP's control - the closer this can be put to election day, the better.

    They should certainly be doing groundwork in Thanet South but the announcement can wait. I reckon they'll do it at UKIP's conference so as to gain maximum publicity - or possibly when the Conservative conference is on to steal publicity.

    Press release mid-way through Cameron's keynote? Surely even Nigel wouldn't be that cruel...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Now that @LordAshcroft polling finds UKIP in lead at Thanet S will Nigel Farage end speculation that this is where he'll stand?

    UKIP will do well to delay this news for as long as possible, it'll be a minor news event when it happens with the associated hullaballoo - moreover it is under UKIP's control - the closer this can be put to election day, the better.

    They should certainly be doing groundwork in Thanet South but the announcement can wait. I reckon they'll do it at UKIP's conference so as to gain maximum publicity - or possibly when the Conservative conference is on to steal publicity.

    Press release mid-way through Cameron's keynote? Surely even Nigel wouldn't be that cruel...
    I note that Labour have their conference in first, UKIP 2nd, Con 3rd, Lib Dem 4th.

    Better thought of to go early or later ?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    All still very early and a long way to go. labour tax and spend positioning will be hard for them to defend as it gets closer to election. Promising to still to current spending for 1 year only and unfettered spending on "investment" won't cut it under any sustained attack.

    Personally I think the Tories have 2 very powerful narratives:

    Things are nearly fixed, don't be stupid & let the lot that messed it up back in to mess it up again.

    Vote labour, pay more tax for no benefit at all.

    Tories to lose,in my book, even with labour's built in voting bias.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The ukip candidate for Thurrock, Tim Aker, is head of policy and on bbc daily politics quite a lot, which should help more than hinder I reckon.

    Betting tip

    South Basildon and East Thurrock comes out as good a bet on my ratings as Thurrock. Ukip did just as well there in the Euros and locals, and lads are 8/1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    edited July 2014
    Neil said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Can I just say to all those Labour supporters who thought it was a hoot that UKIP was splitting the Tory vote -

    Hahahahahahahahahaha!

    You think Cameron would prefer UKIP to poll at 15% or 5%?

    If UKIP poll at 15%, my personal assessment is that they will be hurting Labour disproportionately more the higher their vote. Which I put down to Ed Miliband.

    You can make a case that once life-long Labour WWC voters break the habit, Ed Miliband is not a reason for them to return to the Labour fold. Whereas for life-long (or those who have recently sat on their hands) Tories, Ed Miliband is a reason to return from UKIP to the Tory fold.

    So if UKIP goes from say 10% to 15%, my best estimate is that more than half of that extra 5% would come from votes Labour would have been expecting to bag. So a net gain for the Tories. Although I acknowledge, it is merely helping to redress the balance in the first 10% of UKIP's vote, which has come disproportionately from those voters the Tories would have been expecting to bag...

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Saddo

    The Tories also have a secret weapon - Ed Miliband. Hard to keep him off the telly during the campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Alot of the Wave 1/2 differences to my mind look to be Margin of Error.

    Except UKIP - Definite upward movement. Everyone else the same relative to each other more or less methinks.

    Anusingly the Lib Dems average in the battleground seats is now 4% - points to alot of lost deposits, wouldn't be surprised to see the UKIP numbers effectively take the place of the Lib Dem numbers in those seats with the rest looking 2005ish...


    Labour Nick Palmer 20,457
    Conservative Anna Soubry 18,161
    UKIP 7,837

    Something like that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    The ukip candidate for Thurrock, Tim Aker, is head of policy and on bbc daily politics quite a lot, which should help more than hinder I reckon.

    Betting tip

    South Basildon and East Thurrock comes out as good a bet on my ratings as Thurrock. Ukip did just as well there in the Euros and locals, and lads are 8/1

    Looks a fair tip - in for a tenner.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    By way of comparison:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2295

    And that was much nearer to the election.

    Caveat punter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Lord A notes

    Meanwhile, to close in time-honoured fashion, there are still nearly ten months to go and this poll, like all polls, is a snapshot not a prediction – as will the next instalment of my battleground research, currently in the field.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2014
    Interesting that in Stockton South the UKIP share increased from 12% to 18% despite being an extremely close contest between Con and Lab with only 3% separating them with the latest figures.

    Previous Ashcroft figures: Lab 43, Con 36, UKIP 12, LD 5
    New Ashcroft figures: Lab 38, Con 35, UKIP 18, LD 4
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Pulpstar said:

    Now that @LordAshcroft polling finds UKIP in lead at Thanet S will Nigel Farage end speculation that this is where he'll stand?

    UKIP will do well to delay this news for as long as possible, it'll be a minor news event when it happens with the associated hullaballoo - moreover it is under UKIP's control - the closer this can be put to election day, the better.

    They should certainly be doing groundwork in Thanet South but the announcement can wait. I reckon they'll do it at UKIP's conference so as to gain maximum publicity - or possibly when the Conservative conference is on to steal publicity.

    Yes the sooner he announces the more the other parties will pour resources into whichever seat it is.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I'm very close to the ground, I can confirm ukip are gaining far more votes from labour than tory. Put bluntly, it is blue collar workers in working class areas that are disadvantaged most by immigration: education, health services and job prospects are all affected. Worryingly for labour they know that but have absolutely no response.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2014
    taffys said:

    Its a shame the noble lord does not do polling in Great Grimbsy and Rotherham.

    Maybe he doesn't want to alert Labour to the possibility they may be in trouble in those constituencies.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited July 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    No, the record is winning from 4th which has happened twice.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election_records#Seats_gained_from_fourth_place.2A

    Parties have won from a standing start though, Respect in Bethnal Green and Bow is presumably the example UKIP will basically try and replicate.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Just read an interesting article on Bloomberg suggesting Dutch PM Rutte is getting savaged in Holland for his lukewarm criticism of Putin.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lord A notes

    Meanwhile, to close in time-honoured fashion, there are still nearly ten months to go and this poll, like all polls, is a snapshot not a prediction – as will the next instalment of my battleground research, currently in the field.

    Nonsense, everyone knows that polls are predictions. You run them through a UNS calculator, and there's your election result. Who is this Ashcroft fellow?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    BNP has imploded, so essentially that is 4th.

    How do you see Argyll and Bute up in the tartan land ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    Here is an interesting report by the bbc into why ukip are doing well in Thurrock

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b048nqkm
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Ashcroft figures give some hope to the Tories in Amber Valley which had previously seemed like an easy Labour gain:

    Lab 37%
    Con 33%
    UKIP 22%
    LD 3%

    Previous Ashcroft figures were Lab 44%, Con 30%, UKIP 16%, LD 6%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Trevor Phillips talking sense on Daily Politics about segregation in Birmingham schools

    45 years ago someone else was saying the same thing, maybe people will listen now
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Trevor Phillips absolutely nailing the argument, brilliant stuff
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plaid Cyrmu came from fourth place in 1992 to win Ceredigion and Pembroke North.
  • GertrudeGertrude Posts: 8
    Same underlying trend as 2010 - Labour strongest in targets where their vote is made up of degree educated professionals and/or non white voters eg Lancaster, Hendon, Wolverhampton SW, Cardiff North. Difference with 2010 - UKIP initially hammered the Tory vote in WWC seats they did well in 2010, now hitting what remains of the Labour base. Areas with polarised electorate (affluent Tories, WWC Labour) have potential for the Tories where they have a strong incumbent eg Stockton South, Morecambe and Lunesdale. Tory strategy needs to be to destroy the LDs in the South West and hold on to places like Morecambe, limiting Labour gains to suburban seats in big conurbations where there is little they can do realistically. Labour could run riot in London - 15 points ahead in Hendon combined with local election results suggest big gains.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    BNP has imploded, so essentially that is 4th.

    How do you see Argyll and Bute up in the tartan land ?
    I'm currently keeping my powder dry until after the North Britain plebiscite.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    So my 8/1 bet that Ukip will win more than one seat is looking good.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Trevor Phillips absolutely nailing the argument, brilliant stuff''

    Did you read Liam Byrne's comments? utterly breathtaking hypocrisy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Trevor Phillips talking sense on Daily Politics about segregation in Birmingham schools

    45 years ago someone else was saying the same thing, maybe people will listen now

    Ray Honeyford was rounded upon in the 1980s for speaking out on this subject with regard to schools in Bradford.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    James Landale (@BBCJLandale)
    22/07/2014 11:10
    Breaking: David Davis and Tom Watson to sue government over new DRIP data laws
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Nicky Morgan will make a statement on the Birmingham report, apparently. Interesting to see how that goes.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited July 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    Yes. Respect, Bradford West 2012 (5th in 2010).

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    Yes. Respect, Bradford West 2012 (5th in 2010).

    Thanks, though that was a by-election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MikeSmithson said:

    So my 8/1 bet that Ukip will win more than one seat is looking good.

    Your pessimism on that bet at the recent get together was misplaced I thought.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
    Nah George is safe as houses ... till GE2015.

    If a bookie was to offer anything more than 1-10 that he'll be in post for next GE I'd probably take it.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    LD switchers are the pacificts who left labour previously previously.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
    Those at the PB meet a couple of weeks ago will confirm that I predicted William Hague would stand down as Foreign Secretary before the election and as an MP.

    I said it was for the following two reasons

    1) He prefers a life outside of politics and being a writer

    2) He didn't fancy being Foreign Secretary during the renegoiations of our membership of the EU and a possible BREXIT
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    I agree that the likelihood of an ugly market event between now and May is quite high. Russia, China credit bubble, faliure of Abenomics, middle-east, grossly overvalued equity markets, Eurozone meltdown reawakens, blah, blah, blah.

    And who'd you rather have handling the fallout of that? Dave n Ozzy or Ed n Ed? That's a no-brainer.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    Yellow boxes, Yellow boxes, where is my monthly government finances yellow boxes fix?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    So my 8/1 bet that Ukip will win more than one seat is looking good.

    Your pessimism on that bet at the recent get together was misplaced I thought.
    I think because some of the Euro polls put UKIP as high as 38%, when they actually polled 27% it gave a slightly false impression that they weren't doing as well as expected when in fact it was a very strong performance.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
    Nah George is safe as houses ... till GE2015.

    If a bookie was to offer anything more than 1-10 that he'll be in post for next GE I'd probably take it.
    Afternoon Mr Pulpstar - just caught up on the previous thread where you mention 'delta' several times. - er, for those somewhat challenged, can you elaborate pls?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Patrick said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    I agree that the likelihood of an ugly market event between now and May is quite high. Russia, China credit bubble, faliure of Abenomics, middle-east, grossly overvalued equity markets, Eurozone meltdown reawakens, blah, blah, blah.

    And who'd you rather have handling the fallout of that? Dave n Ozzy or Ed n Ed? That's a no-brainer.
    option 1) everyone dies of the plague
    option 2) 2/3 of the population die of the plague while 1/3 get vaccinated

    no difference unless you're part of the 1/3

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Quincel said:

    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.

    UKIP's purpose is to gift the election to Labour. UKIP are a bunch of extreme right wingers who in the final analysis will not attract labour voters - their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party. Their result will be to deliver endless Labour election victories by splitting the right wing vote and causing dissension in the Conservative Party. David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
    Nah George is safe as houses ... till GE2015.

    If a bookie was to offer anything more than 1-10 that he'll be in post for next GE I'd probably take it.
    It has been reported that George Osborne wants to be Foreign Secretary as a stepping stone to succeeding David Cameron. This would have been the obvious time to move, unless he is very confident of 2015 victory.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Flightpath said:

    Quincel said:

    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.

    UKIP's purpose is to gift the election to Labour. UKIP are a bunch of extreme right wingers who in the final analysis will not attract labour voters - their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party. Their result will be to deliver endless Labour election victories by splitting the right wing vote and causing dissension in the Conservative Party. David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.
    Labour are 4/7 to win Thurrock and only ukip can beat them by the look of it, so I wouldn't put too much faith in your supposition
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
    Nah George is safe as houses ... till GE2015.

    If a bookie was to offer anything more than 1-10 that he'll be in post for next GE I'd probably take it.
    It has been reported that George Osborne wants to be Foreign Secretary as a stepping stone to succeeding David Cameron. This would have been the obvious time to move, unless he is very confident of 2015 victory.
    Hence why my Gove at 33/1 next CoTE is extremely interesting.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    SimonStClare said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Patrick said:

    I'm looking forward to Ed's economic policy. It will come at some point before May 2015 - I suppose. There'll be wailing and gnashing of teeth. Either he sticks to his spendy guns and the national finances go into meltdown as a sort of British France. Or...he gets a new religion and decides the national finances matter - and the left goes into meltdown.

    What's the PB view on which way things will develop?

    I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.
    The "black swans" that spring to my mind are bad for Conservative and probably decent for UKIP.
    June figures show debt and deficit up -- would have been a good time for George to get a new job -- wonder if that is why Hague stepped aside.
    Nah George is safe as houses ... till GE2015.

    If a bookie was to offer anything more than 1-10 that he'll be in post for next GE I'd probably take it.
    Afternoon Mr Pulpstar - just caught up on the previous thread where you mention 'delta' several times. - er, for those somewhat challenged, can you elaborate pls?
    The change in labour lead.

    So -1.5% from his last poll.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    woody662 said:

    Interesting numbers on Q2 which taken at face value indicates some MP's are a drag on the ticket. Not sure I buy some of those findings especially as the candidates weren't named.

    We are finding explicitly anti-incumbent voters to be relatively common on the doorstep, generally due to some personal interaction at surgeries etc. I've had that too - helping people is great, but sometimes you just can't. There's one chap who has never forgiven me for failing to help in a child custody case for him that he was fighting in a New York court. I agree that it'd be illuminating to have a poll with names, though.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    This must have been written by some leftwing apologist for the lazy and workshy!
    IDS has said it is fair and measured, and everyone else was wrong.

    "Benefit sanctions hit most vulnerable people the hardest, report says"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/22/benefit-sanctions-vulnerable-people-hardship-dwp-report

    (Actually it was written by a centre right think tank member, but I would hate to spoil your usual rants)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Flightpath said:

    David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.

    Is your complaint that he is taking a stand on civil liberties or that he is taking the same stand as a Labour MP?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    NickPalmer said:

    woody662 said:

    Interesting numbers on Q2 which taken at face value indicates some MP's are a drag on the ticket. Not sure I buy some of those findings especially as the candidates weren't named.

    We are finding explicitly anti-incumbent voters to be relatively common on the doorstep, generally due to some personal interaction at surgeries etc. I've had that too - helping people is great, but sometimes you just can't. There's one chap who has never forgiven me for failing to help in a child custody case for him that he was fighting in a New York court. I agree that it'd be illuminating to have a poll with names, though.
    Was it you that had the constituent who expected to reschedule tour holiday (or was it a wedding) to help him with a matter?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Smarmeron said:

    This must have been written by some leftwing apologist for the lazy and workshy!
    IDS has said it is fair and measured, and everyone else was wrong.

    "Benefit sanctions hit most vulnerable people the hardest, report says"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/22/benefit-sanctions-vulnerable-people-hardship-dwp-report

    (Actually it was written by a centre right think tank member, but I would hate to spoil your usual rants)

    The DWP should hire a sedan chair to bring them into the Job centre to solve these issues - fancy making them walk for their "entitlements"..

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @Pulpstar – Ah, for some reason I thought you may have been referring to something other than the mathematical ‘Δ’ - cheers for the reply.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Just catching up.

    Is it me or is this still good news for Labour (and the Kippers)?

    Usual PB Tories celebrating but this poll still seems dire for them.

    Am I misreading it somehow?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 15m

    Ladbrokes tighten odds on hung parliament

    11/10 No overall majority
    2/1 LAB majority
    3/1 CON majority
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    On the Daily Politics show

    Keith Simpson, the Tory MP is wearing red trousers.

    I've got some shoes that would go well with those trousers
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    Flightpath said:

    David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.

    Is your complaint that he is taking a stand on civil liberties or that he is taking the same stand as a Labour MP?
    He appears to have become a prisoner of the spotlight.

    An issue that the general public couldn't give an Aylesbury duck about - misguided.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NickPalmer said:

    woody662 said:

    Interesting numbers on Q2 which taken at face value indicates some MP's are a drag on the ticket. Not sure I buy some of those findings especially as the candidates weren't named.

    We are finding explicitly anti-incumbent voters to be relatively common on the doorstep, generally due to some personal interaction at surgeries etc. I've had that too - helping people is great, but sometimes you just can't. There's one chap who has never forgiven me for failing to help in a child custody case for him that he was fighting in a New York court. I agree that it'd be illuminating to have a poll with names, though.
    Was it you that had the constituent who expected to reschedule tour holiday (or was it a wedding) to help him with a matter?
    Yes, he felt I shouldn't go on honeymoon (due to start in two days after his call) before I'd sorted out his roof problem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BobaFett said:

    Just catching up.

    Is it me or is this still good news for Labour (and the Kippers)?

    Usual PB Tories celebrating but this poll still seems dire for them.

    Am I misreading it somehow?

    The polling is good for UKIP, and not as good as it was for Labour but its still poor for Con.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the Daily Politics show

    Keith Simpson, the Tory MP is wearing red trousers.

    I've got some shoes that would go well with those trousers

    Both in the bin...? ; )
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    BobaFett said:

    Just catching up.

    Is it me or is this still good news for Labour (and the Kippers)?

    Usual PB Tories celebrating but this poll still seems dire for them.

    Am I misreading it somehow?

    It's bad for Labour in the sense that it is not as good as it was. But in the final analysis any party taking seats from the Tories is good news for Labour.

  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    NickPalmer said:

    woody662 said:

    Interesting numbers on Q2 which taken at face value indicates some MP's are a drag on the ticket. Not sure I buy some of those findings especially as the candidates weren't named.

    We are finding explicitly anti-incumbent voters to be relatively common on the doorstep, generally due to some personal interaction at surgeries etc. I've had that too - helping people is great, but sometimes you just can't. There's one chap who has never forgiven me for failing to help in a child custody case for him that he was fighting in a New York court. I agree that it'd be illuminating to have a poll with names, though.
    Didn't you build up an incumbency bonus though Nick, your swings were below the uniform.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF said:

    Smarmeron said:

    This must have been written by some leftwing apologist for the lazy and workshy!
    IDS has said it is fair and measured, and everyone else was wrong.

    "Benefit sanctions hit most vulnerable people the hardest, report says"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/22/benefit-sanctions-vulnerable-people-hardship-dwp-report

    (Actually it was written by a centre right think tank member, but I would hate to spoil your usual rants)

    The DWP should hire a sedan chair to bring them into the Job centre to solve these issues - fancy making them walk for their "entitlements"..

    The bus fare to the JobCentre several miles away can make a dent in your benefits if you are suddenly required to go in more than once a fortnight. It has been well over a decade since I was involved but something changed -- and it changed under that nice Mr Blair's Labour government -- so that rather than helping people, the system was more concerned with shepherding claimants about, even if not punishing them. Ask yourself why a JobCentre should need bouncers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Flightpath said:

    Quincel said:

    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.

    UKIP's purpose is to gift the election to Labour. UKIP are a bunch of extreme right wingers who in the final analysis will not attract labour voters - their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party. Their result will be to deliver endless Labour election victories by splitting the right wing vote and causing dissension in the Conservative Party. David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.
    How can any Conservative call themselves a Europhile?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

    They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

    Yes. Respect, Bradford West 2012 (5th in 2010).

    Thanks, though that was a by-election.
    I'd agree that in betting it's usually best to expect regression to the mean... Unless the rules of the game change

    My contention is that 4 party politics means the rules have changed.

    you could have said before the Euros, "Has anyone but the Conservatices or labour won a. National election in the last 100years" and used that as a reason not to back ukip (maybe in a match bet vs the conservatives as at odds against... Jesus!)

    Remy could be a genuine golden boot contender... One of the best strikers in Europe on my ratings
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    One thing about the Indy ref - look at the amount of Jam & Apple Pie that has been stuffed Scotland's way since it's been announced.

    If I was in Scotland I'd probably vote No/SNP...
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    SimonStClare said:

    @Pulpstar – Ah, for some reason I thought you may have been referring to something other than the mathematical ‘Δ’ - cheers for the reply.

    No it is exactly that. 'Delta' in maths or physics means 'change' - whether spelled out in English or Greek letters. For example the fundamental unit of rocketry is 'Delta-V', meaning change in velocity.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Flightpath said:

    Quincel said:

    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.

    UKIP's purpose is to gift the election to Labour. UKIP are a bunch of extreme right wingers who in the final analysis will not attract labour voters - their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party. Their result will be to deliver endless Labour election victories by splitting the right wing vote and causing dissension in the Conservative Party. David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.
    Indeed, Farage has said that his aim is to destroy the Conservative Party.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Flightpath said:

    David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.

    Is your complaint that he is taking a stand on civil liberties or that he is taking the same stand as a Labour MP?
    He appears to have become a prisoner of the spotlight.

    An issue that the general public couldn't give an Aylesbury duck about - misguided.
    But it's an issue he clearly feels very strongly about - certainly above personal ambition (he'd almost certainly have been in the cabinet if he hadnt resigned and fought a by-election on a related issue) or electoral advantage. Dont we want MPs who care about the issues more than their own prospects?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    If movements in today's 14 @LordAshcroft's CON-LAB battlegrounds are applied nationally LAB would be just 2% ahead
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Flightpath said:

    Quincel said:

    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.

    UKIP's purpose is to gift the election to Labour. UKIP are a bunch of extreme right wingers who in the final analysis will not attract labour voters - their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party. Their result will be to deliver endless Labour election victories by splitting the right wing vote and causing dissension in the Conservative Party. David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.
    How can any Conservative call themselves a Europhile?
    The Conservative Party traditionally was the Europhile party. All the major pro-EU measures were taken by Conservative governments -- including joining the thing in the first place. Labour was the more Eurosceptic party -- and even after it decided it rather liked some social measures, it is Labour who kept us out of the Euro. Joining the ERM, Single European Act, Maastricht -- all down to the Conservatives.


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Flightpath said:

    David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.

    Is your complaint that he is taking a stand on civil liberties or that he is taking the same stand as a Labour MP?
    He appears to have become a prisoner of the spotlight.

    An issue that the general public couldn't give an Aylesbury duck about - misguided.
    But it's an issue he clearly feels very strongly about - certainly above personal ambition (he'd almost certainly have been in the cabinet if he hadnt resigned and fought a by-election on a related issue) or electoral advantage. Dont we want MPs who care about the issues more than their own prospects?
    I thought he was there to represent his constituents...
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2014
    With the retirement of Prescott and others, who are the working class leaders at the top of the Labour party that regularly appear on tv? Attacking Cameron and co as middle class public school etc could just draw attention to the lack of few WWC that Labour have.
    e.g. SoS Education vs Shadow SoS Eduation.

    Another factor is age. Cameron may have made a mistake in shipping out some grey heads, but his cabinet still look older than Miliband's. We all know that older voters have the highest voting records.
    It should be a good aim to look like your voters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Flightpath said:

    David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.

    Is your complaint that he is taking a stand on civil liberties or that he is taking the same stand as a Labour MP?
    He appears to have become a prisoner of the spotlight.

    An issue that the general public couldn't give an Aylesbury duck about - misguided.
    But it's an issue he clearly feels very strongly about - certainly above personal ambition (he'd almost certainly have been in the cabinet if he hadnt resigned and fought a by-election on a related issue) or electoral advantage. Dont we want MPs who care about the issues more than their own prospects?
    I thought he was there to represent his constituents...
    Oh I'm sure many of them worry about Big Brother.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Flightpath said:

    Quincel said:

    Worth noting that UKIP are still splitting the Tory vote, just now they are splitting the Labour vote too. UKIP are still helping Labour make 10 gains in these seats.

    UKIP's purpose is to gift the election to Labour. UKIP are a bunch of extreme right wingers who in the final analysis will not attract labour voters - their aim is to destroy the Conservative Party. Their result will be to deliver endless Labour election victories by splitting the right wing vote and causing dissension in the Conservative Party. David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.
    How can any Conservative call themselves a Europhile?
    The Conservative Party traditionally was the Europhile party. All the major pro-EU measures were taken by Conservative governments -- including joining the thing in the first place. Labour was the more Eurosceptic party -- and even after it decided it rather liked some social measures, it is Labour who kept us out of the Euro. Joining the ERM, Single European Act, Maastricht -- all down to the Conservatives.


    You are right, it was why Enoch Powell quit the party in 1974 and advised the nation to vote labour

    Some say he won the 1970 election for the Tories and the 1974 election for Labour
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Flightpath said:

    David Davis' latest antics are a case in point. How can any Conservative co-habit with Tom Watson. Davis is a total disgrace.

    Is your complaint that he is taking a stand on civil liberties or that he is taking the same stand as a Labour MP?
    He appears to have become a prisoner of the spotlight.

    An issue that the general public couldn't give an Aylesbury duck about - misguided.
    But it's an issue he clearly feels very strongly about - certainly above personal ambition (he'd almost certainly have been in the cabinet if he hadnt resigned and fought a by-election on a related issue) or electoral advantage. Dont we want MPs who care about the issues more than their own prospects?
    I thought he was there to represent his constituents...
    He clearly feels this action is very much in his constituents' interests. You'd prefer a placeman who'd keep quiet about such misgivings in order to advance his / her career? Interesting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    With the retirement of Prescott and others, who are the working class leaders at the top of the Labour party that regularly appear on tv? Attacking Cameron and co as middle class public school etc could just draw attention to the lack of few WWC that Labour have.
    e.g. SoS Education vs Shadow SoS Eduation.

    Another factor is age. Cameron may have made a mistake in shipping out some grey heads, but his cabinet still look older than Miliband's. We all know that older voters have the highest voting records.
    It should be a good aim to look like your voters.


    I'm ready to tell you my secret now....
    I see old people!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    With the retirement of Prescott and others, who are the working class leaders at the top of the Labour party that regularly appear on tv? Attacking Cameron and co as middle class public school etc could just draw attention to the lack of few WWC that Labour have.
    e.g. SoS Education vs Shadow SoS Eduation.

    Another factor is age. Cameron may have made a mistake in shipping out some grey heads, but his cabinet still look older than Miliband's. We all know that older voters have the highest voting records.
    It should be a good aim to look like your voters.

    Might Darling and Johnson return in an autumn reshuffle?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:



    Some say he won the 1970 election for the Tories and the 1974 election for Labour

    Is there anything that man couldnt do? I only wish he'd turned his formidable talents to curing cancer and eliminating poverty.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    MikeSmithson said:

    If movements in today's 14 @LordAshcroft's CON-LAB battlegrounds are applied nationally LAB would be just 2% ahead

    1% ahead according to Rallings and Thrasher, 2% ahead with Lord A, Lab's leads aren't that compared to past oppositions.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Neil said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    With the retirement of Prescott and others, who are the working class leaders at the top of the Labour party that regularly appear on tv? Attacking Cameron and co as middle class public school etc could just draw attention to the lack of few WWC that Labour have.
    e.g. SoS Education vs Shadow SoS Eduation.

    Another factor is age. Cameron may have made a mistake in shipping out some grey heads, but his cabinet still look older than Miliband's. We all know that older voters have the highest voting records.
    It should be a good aim to look like your voters.

    Might Darling and Johnson return in an autumn reshuffle?
    It would probably help Labour at the GE. Another Scot at the top may also help hold back the SNP surge.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    10 with UKIP taking 2

    Think that is 11 not 10?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The left has a new enemy - who can save us ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/thomas-the-tank-engine-children-parents

    "Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism..."

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    woody662 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    woody662 said:

    Interesting numbers on Q2 which taken at face value indicates some MP's are a drag on the ticket. Not sure I buy some of those findings especially as the candidates weren't named.

    We are finding explicitly anti-incumbent voters to be relatively common on the doorstep, generally due to some personal interaction at surgeries etc. I've had that too - helping people is great, but sometimes you just can't. There's one chap who has never forgiven me for failing to help in a child custody case for him that he was fighting in a New York court. I agree that it'd be illuminating to have a poll with names, though.
    Didn't you build up an incumbency bonus though Nick, your swings were below the uniform.
    Yes, I think so, and that will have been factored into the 2010 result. Quite a lot of it is still there, though over time you'd expect it to decay as people move, die, forget, etc. I'm normally polite to anyone and that isn't constituents' universal experience of politicians - that perhaps shouldn't matter, but for less political people it does.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If movements in today's 14 @LordAshcroft's CON-LAB battlegrounds are applied nationally LAB would be just 2% ahead

    1% ahead according to Rallings and Thrasher, 2% ahead with Lord A, Lab's leads aren't that compared to past oppositions.
    Does anyone know what the England only position is in any of the polls. Assuming Scotland stays part of the UK, knowing that the UK could be governed by Ed on the massive number of Scottish seats labour win could fire up many English lapsed Tories to vote in 2015 (ie the ones that don't vote now compared to Major's numbers)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited July 2014
    Neil said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    With the retirement of Prescott and others, who are the working class leaders at the top of the Labour party that regularly appear on tv? Attacking Cameron and co as middle class public school etc could just draw attention to the lack of few WWC that Labour have.
    e.g. SoS Education vs Shadow SoS Eduation.

    Another factor is age. Cameron may have made a mistake in shipping out some grey heads, but his cabinet still look older than Miliband's. We all know that older voters have the highest voting records.
    It should be a good aim to look like your voters.

    Might Darling and Johnson return in an autumn reshuffle?

    Lord Chipolata said a few weeks ago Johnson should be brought back

    John Prescott: Alan Johnson should run Labour's election campaign

    Former Labour deputy leader says Ed Miliband needs someone who can relate to people in the north and the south

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/12/john-prescott-alan-johnson-labour-election-campaign
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Neil said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    With the retirement of Prescott and others, who are the working class leaders at the top of the Labour party that regularly appear on tv? Attacking Cameron and co as middle class public school etc could just draw attention to the lack of few WWC that Labour have.
    e.g. SoS Education vs Shadow SoS Eduation.

    Another factor is age. Cameron may have made a mistake in shipping out some grey heads, but his cabinet still look older than Miliband's. We all know that older voters have the highest voting records.
    It should be a good aim to look like your voters.

    Might Darling and Johnson return in an autumn reshuffle?

    Darling will have some time on his hands from the middle of September onwards...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TGOHF said:

    The left has a new enemy - who can save us ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/thomas-the-tank-engine-children-parents

    "Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism..."

    I didn't collect the entire series but I had roughly half of the original run of 26 Thomas books by the time I left primary school in the mid-80s.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If movements in today's 14 @LordAshcroft's CON-LAB battlegrounds are applied nationally LAB would be just 2% ahead

    1% ahead according to Rallings and Thrasher, 2% ahead with Lord A, Lab's leads aren't that compared to past oppositions.
    Yet more PB Tory wishful thinking :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014
    TGOHF said:

    The left has a new enemy - who can save us ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/thomas-the-tank-engine-children-parents

    "Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism..."

    Its not 1st April is it?

    This from the comments made me chuckle,

    I look forward to next weeks article
    Chess - Racist? The white guys get to move first!

This discussion has been closed.