politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds tha

Neil said:

isam said:

Some say he won the 1970 election for the Tories and the 1974 election for Labour

Is there anything that man couldnt do? I only wish he'd turned his formidable talents to curing cancer and eliminating poverty.

There are a few things he chose not to do that other Tories of his time did

FrancisUrquhart said:

TGOHF said:

The left has a new enemy - who can save us ?

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/thomas-the-tank-engine-children-parents

"Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism..."

This from the comments made me chuckle,

I look forward to next weeks article
Chess - Racist? The white guys get to move first!

It's also sexist because the Queen can move as many squares as she wants - well in a straight or diagonal line - whereas the King can only move one square (apart from "castling" of course)

taffys said:

The left has a new enemy - who can save us ?

What next, politically correct Trumpton??

''Pugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Ramirez, Mohammed, Patel'

Haha


Watch this, esp 2:26 in

I'm sure that bearded fellow imposts on here

http://youtu.be/aLlrfEYtqFU

Here's a win for the sensible wing of the coalition and a slap-down for Ozzy:

"The government has today confirmed the UK will retain its fourth carbon budget in its current form, ending speculation that the target for the mid-2020s could be watered down.

The Financial Times reported this morning that Chancellor George Osborne had been forced to back down in his long-running attempt to dilute the legally-binding target, which covers the period from 2022 to 2027 and effectively requires the UK to halve its greenhouse gas emissions against 1990 levels by 2027.

A written ministerial statement from Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey was released mid-morning confirming the Fourth Carbon Budget would not be amended. "The budget, which covers the period 2023 to 2027, will therefore stay at its existing level of 1950 MtCO2 equivalent," Davey said."

BobaFett said:

@TC

Labour have Rachel Reeves which is no doubt good enough for @Sunil

Rachel Reeves? Where?

“At first blush, Thomas and his friends seem rather placid and mild. And there are certainly a lot worse shows in terms of in-your-face violence, sexism, racism and classism. But looks can be deceiving: the constant bent of messages about friendship, work, class, gender and race sends my kid the absolute wrong message.”

Blimey, life must be an absolute riot in the neurotic Van Slyke household. - Wonder what she makes of Dr Who...

TheScreamingEagles said:

The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

The average UKIPper disagrees very little with the BNP. For example, looking at the UKIPper massive in the DT comments, how many UKIPpers would seriously disagree that Britain is "a multicultural shithole" which is under the process of "ethnic cleansing" and faces many more Lee Rigby-style executions perpetrated by "tribal African" people?

The thing is, that is the considered view of the new leader of the BNP. Anyone espousing the milder view - that EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders - is a Tory, not a UKIPper.

So in that seat you could add UKIP to BNP and reckon from there.

blackburn63 said:

I'm very close to the ground, I can confirm ukip are gaining far more votes from labour than tory. Put bluntly, it is blue collar workers in working class areas that are disadvantaged most by immigration: education, health services and job prospects are all affected. Worryingly for labour they know that but have absolutely no response.

hahahahahahahahahahaha.

hold on.

You mean they're not all retired colonels sitting in golf clubs in the commuter belt??

I mean really. The very thought that the only Lab=>UKIP switcher we have on PB has been telling the truth THE WHOLE TIME!

Can you be serious??

What will those of a leftwards persuation on here think of that? Will their brains explode?

(good post)

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

The average UKIPper disagrees very little with the BNP. For example, looking at the UKIPper massive in the DT comments, how many UKIPpers would seriously disagree that Britain is "a multicultural shithole" which is under the process of "ethnic cleansing" and faces many more Lee Rigby-style executions perpetrated by "tribal African" people?

The thing is, that is the considered view of the new leader of the BNP. Anyone espousing the milder view - that EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders - is a Tory, not a UKIPper.

So in that seat you could add UKIP to BNP and reckon from there.

I know you are trolling, but it is fair to say that you have to allocate a large % of the BNP vote to UKIP. Whether kippers like it or not, its obvious that we are the party BNP supporters are most likely to vote for.

Especially in Thurrock, if anyone cared to listen to the BBC radio programme I linked to...

This is from the editor of Wisden

Lawrence Booth ‏@the_topspin 8m

Curious delay on Test squad announcement. Think something big is brewing...

isam said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

The average UKIPper disagrees very little with the BNP. For example, looking at the UKIPper massive in the DT comments, how many UKIPpers would seriously disagree that Britain is "a multicultural shithole" which is under the process of "ethnic cleansing" and faces many more Lee Rigby-style executions perpetrated by "tribal African" people?

The thing is, that is the considered view of the new leader of the BNP. Anyone espousing the milder view - that EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders - is a Tory, not a UKIPper.

So in that seat you could add UKIP to BNP and reckon from there.

I know you are trolling, but it is fair to say that you have to allocate a large % of the BNP vote to UKIP. Whether kippers like it or not, its obvious that we are the party BNP supporters are most likely to vote for.

Especially in Thurrock, if anyone cared to listen to the BBC radio programme I linked to...

I'm not trolling. The DT comments are packed with people who self-identify as UKIP but who would upvote to the rafters any such sentiments as those above.

It's similar to the way that Vince Cable disagrees with Labour on essentially nothing, and is a LibDem only because in their smaller pond he looks like a bigger fish.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 3m

Based on Lord Ashcroft's latest marginal poll, Labour is doing worse in the marginals than it is nationally.

LOL Is that the same Polling you were dissing recently Mr worst political pundit

Bond_James_Bond said:

isam said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

The average UKIPper disagrees very little with the BNP. For example, looking at the UKIPper massive in the DT comments, how many UKIPpers would seriously disagree that Britain is "a multicultural shithole" which is under the process of "ethnic cleansing" and faces many more Lee Rigby-style executions perpetrated by "tribal African" people?

The thing is, that is the considered view of the new leader of the BNP. Anyone espousing the milder view - that EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders - is a Tory, not a UKIPper.

So in that seat you could add UKIP to BNP and reckon from there.

I know you are trolling, but it is fair to say that you have to allocate a large % of the BNP vote to UKIP. Whether kippers like it or not, its obvious that we are the party BNP supporters are most likely to vote for.

Especially in Thurrock, if anyone cared to listen to the BBC radio programme I linked to...

I'm not trolling. The DT comments are packed with people who self-identify as UKIP but who would upvote to the rafters any such sentiments as those above.

It's similar to the way that Vince Cable disagrees with Labour on essentially nothing, and is a LibDem only because in their smaller pond he looks like a bigger fish.

You have to wonder why they don't just vote BNP then don't you?

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is from the editor of Wisden

Lawrence Booth ‏@the_topspin 8m

Curious delay on Test squad announcement. Think something big is brewing...

I don't have any confidence that the ECB will pick a better squad even if there are changes.

I don't think there's a better squad out there, that's truly depressing.

I mean if Simon Kerrigan is our best spinner, then we're Daffy Ducked.

What happened to Monty Panesar, I mean I know he got wasted in that nightclub and has gone through a divorce but he was a pretty good spinner.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is from the editor of Wisden

Lawrence Booth ‏@the_topspin 8m

Curious delay on Test squad announcement. Think something big is brewing...

I don't have any confidence that the ECB will pick a better squad even if there are changes.

I don't think there's a better squad out there, that's truly depressing.

I mean if Simon Kerrigan is our best spinner, then we're Daffy Ducked.

What happened to Monty Panesar, I mean I know he got wasted in that nightclub and has gone through a divorce but he was a pretty good spinner.

Those off field problems have effected him on the field. He can't even get into the Essex side

Pulpstar said:

"What are you doing James? You're a big pink steamie,"

"Peep, peep!" whistled Thomas.
"Poop, poop!" whistled Gordon.
They both then made sure they washed their hands before leaving the restroom.

I may not be the first to notice this, but the swing away from the LDs over wave 1 and 2 is shocking. How can they still be being squeezed at such low numbers? If this hollowing out of support is born out the lost deposits betting will be very interesting.

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is from the editor of Wisden

Lawrence Booth ‏@the_topspin 8m

Curious delay on Test squad announcement. Think something big is brewing...

I don't have any confidence that the ECB will pick a better squad even if there are changes.

I don't think there's a better squad out there, that's truly depressing.

I mean if Simon Kerrigan is our best spinner, then we're Daffy Ducked.

What happened to Monty Panesar, I mean I know he got wasted in that nightclub and has gone through a divorce but he was a pretty good spinner.

I think he is struggling to get in the Essex team

India aren't picking a specialist spinner, Jadeja is a bit of a rock n roll Moeen Ali.

It was only an over, but Ballance looked like he could bowl at Trent Bridge. Root can bowl spin too.We have to face facts; we haven't got a decent spinner, unless this Riley kid is the real deal

I'd go

Cook, Carberry, Balance, Bell, Root, Ali, Jordan, Foster (c), Plunkett, Anderson, Finn

Depends on the pitch at Southampton but it hasn't historically been an obvious spinning heaven so I don't think I'd pick a specialist spinner so that looks reasonable. (By contrast, I would be very tempted to bring the evergreen Gareth Batty in for the Oval test as a specialist experienced, on-form spinner if the wicket is anything like the ones Surrey have been playing on so far this season.)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is from the editor of Wisden

Lawrence Booth ‏@the_topspin 8m

Curious delay on Test squad announcement. Think something big is brewing...

I don't have any confidence that the ECB will pick a better squad even if there are changes.

I don't think there's a better squad out there, that's truly depressing.

I mean if Simon Kerrigan is our best spinner, then we're Daffy Ducked.

What happened to Monty Panesar, I mean I know he got wasted in that nightclub and has gone through a divorce but he was a pretty good spinner.

Those off field problems have effected him on the field. He can't even get into the Essex side

TSE, you're now going on the PB Grammar Pedants' Wall of Shame.

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is from the editor of Wisden

Lawrence Booth ‏@the_topspin 8m

Curious delay on Test squad announcement. Think something big is brewing...

I don't have any confidence that the ECB will pick a better squad even if there are changes.

I don't think there's a better squad out there, that's truly depressing.

I mean if Simon Kerrigan is our best spinner, then we're Daffy Ducked.

What happened to Monty Panesar, I mean I know he got wasted in that nightclub and has gone through a divorce but he was a pretty good spinner.

Those off field problems have effected him on the field. He can't even get into the Essex side

TSE, you're now going on the PB Grammar Pedants' Wall of Shame.

He has that affect, I mean effect, on people!

Neil said:

surbiton said:

Bermondsey must be on the cards.

IOS will be shocked if it doesnt fall to Labour. Still about a 2/1 bet with most bookies though. Their algorithms must be out.

IOS ?

Kevin Schofield ‏@schofieldkevin 9 mins

George Osborne announces that the UK government is to give another £5 million to the fire-damaged Glasgow School of Art.

Grandiose said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TGOHF said:

The left has a new enemy - who can save us ?

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/thomas-the-tank-engine-children-parents

"Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism..."

Its not 1st April is it?

This from the comments made me chuckle,

I look forward to next weeks article
Chess - Racist? The white guys get to move first!

I thought it was a Sean T style spoof when I read it.

Possibly it is. As SeanT has explained, it is all about "shares"

Doubt it.

Any obsession is unhealthy - when you can only see the world through one filter. Even worse when you push it onto your children: "My son, now three-and-a-half years old, thankfully never never went through a manic train fascination like so many other children".

I live right next to a Thomas the Tank Engine steam railway. Lots and lots of happy children, that's what I can tell you. Proper family fun.

Nowt wrong with trains! Now where did I leave my model....

Luckyguy1983 said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

The average UKIPper disagrees very little with the BNP. For example, looking at the UKIPper massive in the DT comments, how many UKIPpers would seriously disagree that Britain is "a multicultural shithole" which is under the process of "ethnic cleansing" and faces many more Lee Rigby-style executions perpetrated by "tribal African" people?

The thing is, that is the considered view of the new leader of the BNP. Anyone espousing the milder view - that EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders - is a Tory, not a UKIPper.

So in that seat you could add UKIP to BNP and reckon from there.

You have fundamentally misunderstood the nature of UKIP's divergence from The Conservatives. It is not extremity of viewpoint that seperates them, it is the determination that action must follow sentiment. It may be that many Tories feel 'EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders' -but the upper echelons of their party will simply NEVER allow that. Those who do attempt to advance such initiatives within the Tory party are darkly hinted at as being 'ideological' -a smear that means nutter.

To believe that 'EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders' but to remain within the Conservative indicates either terminal delusion or intellectual cowardice. Ukipper's haven't moved away from the Tory Party, the Tory Party has been taken from them.

Considering you're an Assad and Putin apologist, I'm glad you think the Tory party isn't for you.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The thing about Thurrock, has any party ever come from fifth to win?

They were 5th behind the BNP, and nearly 13k behind Con and Lab.

The average UKIPper disagrees very little with the BNP. For example, looking at the UKIPper massive in the DT comments, how many UKIPpers would seriously disagree that Britain is "a multicultural shithole" which is under the process of "ethnic cleansing" and faces many more Lee Rigby-style executions perpetrated by "tribal African" people?

The thing is, that is the considered view of the new leader of the BNP. Anyone espousing the milder view - that EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders - is a Tory, not a UKIPper.

So in that seat you could add UKIP to BNP and reckon from there.

You have fundamentally misunderstood the nature of UKIP's divergence from The Conservatives. It is not extremity of viewpoint that seperates them, it is the determination that action must follow sentiment. It may be that many Tories feel 'EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders' -but the upper echelons of their party will simply NEVER allow that. Those who do attempt to advance such initiatives within the Tory party are darkly hinted at as being 'ideological' -a smear that means nutter.

To believe that 'EU immigration is a bit out of hand, and we need to do something about our borders' but to remain within the Conservative indicates either terminal delusion or intellectual cowardice. Ukipper's haven't moved away from the Tory Party, the Tory Party has been taken from them.

Considering you're an Assad and Putin apologist, I'm glad you think the Tory party isn't for you.

Now where has that "Like" button gone.

OllyT said:

I think there's a revelation of black swans circling overhead so **** nose.

I agree that the likelihood of an ugly market event between now and May is quite high. Russia, China credit bubble, faliure of Abenomics, middle-east, grossly overvalued equity markets, Eurozone meltdown reawakens, blah, blah, blah.

And who'd you rather have handling the fallout of that? Dave n Ozzy or Ed n Ed? That's a no-brainer.

Is there anything in what we have seen so far other than blind tribalism to suggest that Cameron & Osborne would become political colossuses overnight in the event of a major financial crisis? I for one hope for all our sakes it is not put to the test.

Seeing as they're currently trusted much more on the economy than Ed n Ed, that's not really a very good argument.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Interesting Red Bull and Williams are both 9 to top score in Hungary. Red Bull's superior chassis will make them relatively faster, compared to Hockenheim, but I suspect Williams may now be a cut above them.

Unfortunately, it'll almost certainly take a reliability failure for them to beat Mercedes, and retirements are few at the Hungaroring.

Neil said:

MrJones said:

Pulpstar said:

MrJones said:

Methinks the MH17 narrative is likely to blow back massively. Keyword NEWFIP.

Newfip o_O ?

It's an acronym. I don't want to go into details as it's depressing to think about.

Was it the bankstas that did it?

I blame Thomas the Tank Engine

Can any younger and/or 'with-it' posters advise me whether "Bubble Witch" is a euphemism for something interesting?

Mr. Isam, your capitals made me think of Mass Effect.

Damned Turians, coming over here, taking our jobs...

[Apparently there'll be some news on Mass Effect 4 fairly soon].

If alcohol advertising were banned that'd hit F1 pretty hard.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

Can any younger and/or 'with-it' posters advise me whether "Bubble Witch" is a euphemism for something interesting?

It's a game innit?

So nothing to do with young women on holiday in Magaluf?

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

Can any younger and/or 'with-it' posters advise me whether "Bubble Witch" is a euphemism for something interesting?

It's a game innit?

So nothing to do with young women on holiday in Magaluf?

Not that I'm aware of.

I have introduced PBers to many of the hip happening phrases, such as

1) MILF to Richard Nabavi

2) Changing at Baker Street to Morris Dancer

isam said:

I am trying to follow up my groundbreaking (6 comments) article on Mass Immigration's affect on the Working Class with one on advertising in gambling.

The more I think of it , the more I'm drawn to the idea that advertising of alcohol and gambling should not be allowed on tv, as per smoking.

If gambling is allowed to be advertised, it should be no more than the equivalent of a board with the odds on before a match or at half time/between overs

A ban on Ray Winston perhaps ?

Neil,

Your last two posts have been numbered 4,999. Please drop the other shoe.

And yes, I should get out more.

From Conhome there are some amusing tweets on the subject of GuardiankidsTV

'The speak truth to power rangers' is my personal favourite.

Anyone remember the film Coneheads?

Look at the chap in the video, on the right hand side

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-22/france-prepared-to-cancel-warship-sale-to-russia.html

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, genuinely surprised by that. If Hollande cancelled, would Merkel/Germany then be under pressure substantial enough to alter the German view?

Dunno - how about closer to home, will the Mayfair property market be affected ?

Mr. Eagles, do they care?

UK Prime Minister ‏@Number10gov 3 mins

PM: We agreed Dutch request for air accident investigators at Farnborough to retrieve data from MH17 black boxes for international analysis

But will the Russians trust us?

Pulpstar said:

One thing about the Indy ref - look at the amount of Jam & Apple Pie that has been stuffed Scotland's way since it's been announced.

If I was in Scotland I'd probably vote No/SNP...

Pulpstar can you tell me what jam & apple pie you are talking about. I have only seen cuts and vague promises to stiff us with income tax whilst slashing the budget and leaving us in the mire.

Nick Hoult ‏@NHoultCricket 45s

13 man squad announced. Includes Cook, Buttler for Prior but no Kerrigan

malcolmg said:

Pulpstar said:

One thing about the Indy ref - look at the amount of Jam & Apple Pie that has been stuffed Scotland's way since it's been announced.

If I was in Scotland I'd probably vote No/SNP...

Pulpstar can you tell me what jam & apple pie you are talking about. I have only seen cuts and vague promises to stiff us with income tax whilst slashing the budget and leaving us in the mire.

More powers over income tax, Glasgow shipping being more looked after than Pompey are a couple that spring to mind.

MarkHopkins said:

UK Prime Minister ‏@Number10gov 3 mins

PM: We agreed Dutch request for air accident investigators at Farnborough to retrieve data from MH17 black boxes for international analysis

But will the Russians trust us?

Interesting that the country from which MH17 departed and with the highest death count should entrust the black boxes with the UK - Is the choice of Farnborough entirely professional or part political I wonder?