Remember that a CON-LD swing smaller than in C&A in 1990 led to Maggie going within a month – politi

Nigelb said:

alex_ said:

Nigelb said:

TimT said:

MattW said:

Floater said:

This made my day

AstraZeneca has claimed victory in its legal case against the EU after a court in Brussels found that the bloc should not be given priority over other countries for jabs....

The EU has also claimed victory ...

A very quick read seems to indicate that AZN won the big victory (re best reasonable efforts) and the EU won a consolation prize (re court-ordered deliveries from now to September).

The market has delivered its judgment: the AZN share price is virtually unchanged.

EU “victory” seems to have consisted of court ordering AZ (under threat of penalty) to deliver doses by September that they say they will have delivered by end of June.

There is still a potential second suit for damages in respect of the late deliveries. It seems equally unlikely to go anywhere, but I expect the parties back in court, if only because UVDL is a numpty.

Nah, the 80.2m is almost all done anyway. It's the target AZ set itself and it's extremely unlikely it won't meet it.

Alistair said:

dixiedean said:

Yesterday's LD private polling was widely derided.
And rightly so. Spectacularly inaccurate.

Lib Dem Vote share off by 15 points.
Lib Dem lead off by 25 points.

Embarrassing.

They wouldn't leak "private polling" that showed that much of a lead. People might get complacent.

Alistair said:

dixiedean said:

Yesterday's LD private polling was widely derided.
And rightly so. Spectacularly inaccurate.

Lib Dem Vote share off by 15 points.
Lib Dem lead off by 25 points.

Embarrassing.

Oh you innocent boy.

That poll 'leak' was entirely done to get the tactical votes of the Greens/Labour/Brendan Donnelly.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

dixiedean said:

Yesterday's LD private polling was widely derided.
And rightly so. Spectacularly inaccurate.

Lib Dem Vote share off by 15 points.
Lib Dem lead off by 25 points.

Embarrassing.

Oh you innocent boy.

That poll 'leak' was entirely done to get the tactical votes of the Greens/Labour/Brendan Donnelly.

Do you think it was deliberate fake news ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

dixiedean said:

Yesterday's LD private polling was widely derided.
And rightly so. Spectacularly inaccurate.

Lib Dem Vote share off by 15 points.
Lib Dem lead off by 25 points.

Embarrassing.

Oh you innocent boy.

That poll 'leak' was entirely done to get the tactical votes of the Greens/Labour/Brendan Donnelly.

Honest as the day is long, Lib Dems.

Must be midwinter in the arctic.

You should see the campaigns manual.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm staking a small portion of my winnings from last night on Scotland to win tonight.

More foolish than when I backed England against Ireland at the rugby

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

dixiedean said:

Yesterday's LD private polling was widely derided.
And rightly so. Spectacularly inaccurate.

Lib Dem Vote share off by 15 points.
Lib Dem lead off by 25 points.

Embarrassing.

Oh you innocent boy.

That poll 'leak' was entirely done to get the tactical votes of the Greens/Labour/Brendan Donnelly.

Yes, it was (in hindsight) clearly made up numbers to get Lab-Lib switchers whilst also making the Conservatives feel safe.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

TimT said:

MattW said:

Floater said:

This made my day

AstraZeneca has claimed victory in its legal case against the EU after a court in Brussels found that the bloc should not be given priority over other countries for jabs....

The EU has also claimed victory ...

A very quick read seems to indicate that AZN won the big victory (re best reasonable efforts) and the EU won a consolation prize (re court-ordered deliveries from now to September).

The market has delivered its judgment: the AZN share price is virtually unchanged.

Huzzah for AstraZeneca. Except for Springsteen fans who can't go to his concerts because America does not recognise AZ vaccines.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/astrazeneca-vaccine-bruce-springsteen-on-broadway-concert-new-york-b941311.html

Not quite the same thing - it's because the FDA has yet to approve it.
Bit of a busted institution right at the moment (see also the recent Alzheimer's decision).

Yes but this non-recognition of different vaccines will be a problem if reopening international travel will be predicated on vaccine passports. It's a shame this was not settled at the G7.

Yes, it's stupid.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm staking a small portion of my winnings from last night on Scotland to win tonight.

A fool and his money are soon parted

TimT said:

Skim read. Hard to find the actual judgment. Did find this in para 79:

Faute d'autre elements la demande a) de l'UE est non fondée et elle en sera déboutée.

I read this as "In the absence of other issue, the EU's complaint a) is unfounded and will be [denied?]

From my reading, the court found fault with Astrazeneca for contracting supplies to the EU from a couple of plants where the production was prioritised for UK delivery. There was nothing wrong with the prioritisation per se, but AZ should not have included that production in the EU contract. The EU claim against AZ was dismissed for not delivering the full 300 million doses.

It comes out as a wash effectively because the UK contract was much smaller than the EU one and so AZ have just about delivered the smaller amount that the court reckons is the damage [my interpretation]

The ruling is interesting, not so much for the judgment, as the context and how the vaccination industialisation took place. It's an amazing thing.

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

TimT said:

MattW said:

Floater said:

This made my day

AstraZeneca has claimed victory in its legal case against the EU after a court in Brussels found that the bloc should not be given priority over other countries for jabs....

The EU has also claimed victory ...

A very quick read seems to indicate that AZN won the big victory (re best reasonable efforts) and the EU won a consolation prize (re court-ordered deliveries from now to September).

The market has delivered its judgment: the AZN share price is virtually unchanged.

Huzzah for AstraZeneca. Except for Springsteen fans who can't go to his concerts because America does not recognise AZ vaccines.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/astrazeneca-vaccine-bruce-springsteen-on-broadway-concert-new-york-b941311.html

Not quite the same thing - it's because the FDA has yet to approve it.
Bit of a busted institution right at the moment (see also the recent Alzheimer's decision).

Yes but this non-recognition of different vaccines will be a problem if reopening international travel will be predicated on vaccine passports. It's a shame this was not settled at the G7.

Yes, it's stupid.

Yeah I can understand not recognising Chinese vaccines or the Russian one given that the data is poor and they haven't yet applied for FDA approval. AZ not being included seems a bit ridiculous given that it's the FDA holding it up for no reason, J&J had got the same issues wrt blood clots in the young and it has full approval.

MattW said:

(Trigger warning for Max)

Comical Dave is unusually non-garrulous on this:
A judge has issued a ruling in the EU's lawsuit against #AstraZeneca.

Though apparently those UK plants are suddenly the most important thing:
The verdict is still being parsed (it's very complicated) but the EU side says it obliges #AstraZeneca to use its UK factories to meet its commitments to the EU if needed.

This is the crux of the dispute: no exports from UK as envisioned in EU-AZ contract

If ruling does indeed say this, it would be significant.

#AstraZeneca said it couldn't meet its delivery schedule to the EU using facilities in Britain because its contract with the UK government obliges them to supply the UK first. But facilities were listed in contract with EU

All obvious bollox, and I promise no more before Max's bedtime.

Well the UK factory was listed as a possible source not as a designated source.

The one thing I'm not sure about is the delivery figures are they in addition to what has already been supplied or grand totals including what has already been supplied (and not yet used).

FF43 said:

TimT said:

Skim read. Hard to find the actual judgment. Did find this in para 79:

Faute d'autre elements la demande a) de l'UE est non fondée et elle en sera déboutée.

I read this as "In the absence of other issue, the EU's complaint a) is unfounded and will be [denied?]

From my reading, the court found fault with Astrazeneca for contracting supplies to the EU from a couple of plants where the production was prioritised for UK delivery. There was nothing wrong with the prioritisation per se, but AZ should not have included that production in the EU contract. The EU claim against AZ was dismissed for not delivering the full 300 million doses.

It comes out as a wash effectively because the UK contract was much smaller than the EU one and so AZ have just about delivered the smaller amount that the court reckons is the damage [my interpretation]

The ruling is interesting, not so much for the judgment, as the context and how the vaccination industialisation took place. It's an amazing thing.

I'll wait now for a proper translation.

However, EC knew about the UK priority before they signed; I am not sure what impact that has wrt the actual contract wording.

PamelaW said:

A truly brilliant result for LDs to secure a 25.2% swing.

However 8000 majority probably not sufficient for them to retain at next GE. Though spectacular, this result is not as good as Christchurch (lost at subsequent GE) or Newbury (retained at subsequent GE).

Yes, that's probably correct.

Still, Eastbourne is a good analog. Won (surprisingly) at a byelection. Lost. Then a highly competitive seat that has spent roughly equal amounts of time in the Blue and Yellow columns.

Seems like the blood clot issue with vaccines is causing serious problems in the air if this is true

it could also be why the govt is reluctant to reopen foreign travel

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

TimT said:

MattW said:

Floater said:

This made my day

AstraZeneca has claimed victory in its legal case against the EU after a court in Brussels found that the bloc should not be given priority over other countries for jabs....

The EU has also claimed victory ...

A very quick read seems to indicate that AZN won the big victory (re best reasonable efforts) and the EU won a consolation prize (re court-ordered deliveries from now to September).

The market has delivered its judgment: the AZN share price is virtually unchanged.

Huzzah for AstraZeneca. Except for Springsteen fans who can't go to his concerts because America does not recognise AZ vaccines.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/astrazeneca-vaccine-bruce-springsteen-on-broadway-concert-new-york-b941311.html

Not quite the same thing - it's because the FDA has yet to approve it.
Bit of a busted institution right at the moment (see also the recent Alzheimer's decision).

Yes but this non-recognition of different vaccines will be a problem if reopening international travel will be predicated on vaccine passports. It's a shame this was not settled at the G7.

Yes, it's stupid.

Yeah I can understand not recognising Chinese vaccines or the Russian one given that the data is poor and they haven't yet applied for FDA approval. AZ not being included seems a bit ridiculous given that it's the FDA holding it up for no reason, J&J had got the same issues wrt blood clots in the young and it has full approval.

It may be we need to move to a system of recognising some "foreign" vaccinations for "vaccine passport" purposes even if they do not have regulatory approval for "home" use.

the dead pilots have been confirmed by ba...all died relatively recently

what im saying is it may explain the govts reluctance to reopen foreign travel if there is a problem they are concerned about

rcs1000 said:

PamelaW said:

A truly brilliant result for LDs to secure a 25.2% swing.

However 8000 majority probably not sufficient for them to retain at next GE. Though spectacular, this result is not as good as Christchurch (lost at subsequent GE) or Newbury (retained at subsequent GE).

Yes, that's probably correct.

Still, Eastbourne is a good analog. Won (surprisingly) at a byelection. Lost. Then a highly competitive seat that has spent roughly equal amounts of time in the Blue and Yellow columns.

How many people would put how much money on the Tories losing Newbury at the next election? Not me.

BTW, re Eastbourne, compare how the parties reacted to the Tory Ian Gow being murdered, forcing a by election in 1990 (LD and Labour stood against the Tory and LD won) with the reaction to the murder of Jo Cox (Tory and LD stood aside and Labour won).

thespeaker said:

what im saying is it may explain the govts reluctance to reopen foreign travel if there is a problem they are concerned about

This is current air traffic over Europe:

thespeaker said:

Cookie said:

thespeaker said:

Seems like the blood clot issue with vaccines is causing serious problems in the air if this is true

I'm calling bollocks on this. Sounds very much like the work of a Russian mischief-maker.

In fact, a quick Google reveals as much. It's bollocks.
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-aviation-idUSL2N2NZ1ZO

of course british airways will deny it. Why would they panic people

as sir humphrey said "Never believe something until it has been officially denied"
and all the deaths did happen

thespeaker said:

what im saying is it may explain the govts reluctance to reopen foreign travel if there is a problem they are concerned about

Sounds like you're deep in the antivaxxer rabbit hole.

If there is a serious story here it'd be in the serious news. Provide a reputable source, or please don't spread conspiracy theory nonsense.

rcs1000 said:

PamelaW said:

A truly brilliant result for LDs to secure a 25.2% swing.

However 8000 majority probably not sufficient for them to retain at next GE. Though spectacular, this result is not as good as Christchurch (lost at subsequent GE) or Newbury (retained at subsequent GE).

Yes, that's probably correct.

Still, Eastbourne is a good analog. Won (surprisingly) at a byelection. Lost. Then a highly competitive seat that has spent roughly equal amounts of time in the Blue and Yellow columns.

Winchester will go yellow next GE I think.

A third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is already under way leaving Wales facing a "serious public health situation", the first minister said.

Mark Drakeford said Wales may be two or three weeks behind England and Scotland in rising case numbers.

10,406 cases, up 33% on a seven day basis, 30% week on week. 1,251 hospitalisations, up 17.5% week on week.

Oliver Johnson
@BristOliver
·
8m
- 177 hospitalizations (moving average up to 169 - was 120 a week ago, up 41%)
- 1170 beds occupied (was 884 a week ago, up 32%)
- 5% rule still doing a decent enough job
(though if you want some cope maybe the last day or two are a bit flatter)

Nigel_Foremain said:

thespeaker said:

the dead pilots have been confirmed by ba...all died relatively recently

Source? Send my best to Vladimir btw.

source is an official tweet by ba mate

Philip_Thompson said:

thespeaker said:

the dead pilots have been confirmed by ba...all died relatively recently

thespeaker said:

Cookie said:

thespeaker said:

Seems like the blood clot issue with vaccines is causing serious problems in the air if this is true

I'm calling bollocks on this. Sounds very much like the work of a Russian mischief-maker.

In fact, a quick Google reveals as much. It's bollocks.
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-aviation-idUSL2N2NZ1ZO

of course british airways will deny it. Why would they panic people

This is ridiculous. @PBModerator

when you have no arguments try to ban lol

Nigel_Foremain said:

malcolmg said:

FPT @Gallowgate
Philip_Thompson said:

» show previous quotes
Because they've paid for it and because all benefits should be universal and then they'll pay taxes on it anyway.

Means-tested benefits create the poverty trap so why encourage that?

Actually I’m paying for it. What they paid for was general government spending at the time.

Gallowgate, that is utter bollox. I have paid for 50 years for my poxy state pension and will never recoup a fraction of what they got from me. Hopefully they raise state pension age to 90 so you never get a sniff of it , would see if you are such a smartarse then. I paid for your education as well.

Blimey @Gallowgate , I didn't realise you went to Fettes?! And all that time you had an anonymous benevolent benefactor called Malcolm who desperately wanted a protégé that unlike him could string a coherent sentence or argument together. Blimey, sounds like the opening plot for a SeanT novel!

Dumbo arrives on the scene like a bad smell.

Sounds like bad news for Starmer over at the Unite union election.

thespeaker said:

what im saying is it may explain the govts reluctance to reopen foreign travel if there is a problem they are concerned about

You give our Government far more intelligence than I would give them

MattW said:

FF43 said:

TimT said:

Skim read. Hard to find the actual judgment. Did find this in para 79:

Faute d'autre elements la demande a) de l'UE est non fondée et elle en sera déboutée.

I read this as "In the absence of other issue, the EU's complaint a) is unfounded and will be [denied?]

From my reading, the court found fault with Astrazeneca for contracting supplies to the EU from a couple of plants where the production was prioritised for UK delivery. There was nothing wrong with the prioritisation per se, but AZ should not have included that production in the EU contract. The EU claim against AZ was dismissed for not delivering the full 300 million doses.

It comes out as a wash effectively because the UK contract was much smaller than the EU one and so AZ have just about delivered the smaller amount that the court reckons is the damage [my interpretation]

The ruling is interesting, not so much for the judgment, as the context and how the vaccination industialisation took place. It's an amazing thing.

I'll wait now for a proper translation.

However, EC knew about the UK priority before they signed; I am not sure what impact that has wrt the actual contract wording.

Paragraphs 43 to 46 of the judgment deal with this. A covering letter from AZ mentioned that the EU would get doses from certain plants after the UK supply was fulfilled, but the contract itself, which is what the EU agreed to, made no mention of any restrictions on deliveries from those plants. AZ therefore was committed to "Best Reasonable Endeavours" (or whatever the phrase is in English) specifically from those plants

Better covid numbers today

thespeaker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

thespeaker said:

what im saying is it may explain the govts reluctance to reopen foreign travel if there is a problem they are concerned about

Sounds like you're deep in the antivaxxer rabbit hole.

If there is a serious story here it'd be in the serious news. Provide a reputable source, or please don't spread conspiracy theory nonsense.

lol sure the bbc are going to run it and panic people lol....something this serious would be hushed up at first not run on news at ten for gods sake

thespeaker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

thespeaker said:

the dead pilots have been confirmed by ba...all died relatively recently

Source? Send my best to Vladimir btw.

source is an official tweet by ba mate

Covid and long covid have increased risks of blood clots, particularly dangerous for pilots who obviously fly around loads.

thespeaker said:

Received this from a whistleblower at BA:

"Regarding BA, I don't wanna be revealed but i work for BA and on Wednesday a flight arrived at Heathrow and the captain suffered a cardiac arrest upon landing the plane, not sure if he died or not."

From this account....which is full of anti-vax BS.

https://twitter.com/robinmonotti2/status/1405819393393762306?s=20

https://twitter.com/robinmonotti2

thespeaker said:

Received this from a whistleblower at BA:

"Regarding BA, I don't wanna be revealed but i work for BA and on Wednesday a flight arrived at Heathrow and the captain suffered a cardiac arrest upon landing the plane, not sure if he died or not."

Moron.

malcolmg said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

malcolmg said:

FPT @Gallowgate
Philip_Thompson said:

» show previous quotes
Because they've paid for it and because all benefits should be universal and then they'll pay taxes on it anyway.

Means-tested benefits create the poverty trap so why encourage that?

Actually I’m paying for it. What they paid for was general government spending at the time.

Gallowgate, that is utter bollox. I have paid for 50 years for my poxy state pension and will never recoup a fraction of what they got from me. Hopefully they raise state pension age to 90 so you never get a sniff of it , would see if you are such a smartarse then. I paid for your education as well.

Blimey @Gallowgate , I didn't realise you went to Fettes?! And all that time you had an anonymous benevolent benefactor called Malcolm who desperately wanted a protégé that unlike him could string a coherent sentence or argument together. Blimey, sounds like the opening plot for a SeanT novel!

Dumbo arrives on the scene like a bad smell.

Blimey, your one brain cell is working fast today. That rapier wit of Salmond's one and only remaining fan in full fury! Perhaps your brain doesn't really work that slowly? I know, were you desperately searching back over the last few hours to see if someone had "liked" one of your posts to no avail again? Never mind Malc., your loyalty to the man described by his QC as a bully and a sex pest will no doubt be rewarded by the great man one day I am sure!

Anabobazina said:

thespeaker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

thespeaker said:

the dead pilots have been confirmed by ba...all died relatively recently

thespeaker said:

Cookie said:

thespeaker said:

Seems like the blood clot issue with vaccines is causing serious problems in the air if this is true

I'm calling bollocks on this. Sounds very much like the work of a Russian mischief-maker.

In fact, a quick Google reveals as much. It's bollocks.
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-aviation-idUSL2N2NZ1ZO

of course british airways will deny it. Why would they panic people

This is ridiculous. @PBModerator

when you have no arguments try to ban lol

You are spouting antivax bullshit

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-aviation-idUSL2N2NZ1ZO

Ban hammer coming, I dare say. Moron.

Let us hope so.

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Quality football-related mischief from the Scots in London:
"Two men were arrested last night. A 25-year-old man was arrested for indecent exposure [i.e. being stark bollock naked for no readily apparent reason] in Hyde Park. He was taken into police custody before being cautioned and released.

Another man was arrested for the attempted theft of a police officer’s hat, assault with intent of avoiding arrest and assault of emergency worker. He was taken to a south London police station where he currently remains."

How do you know they were Scots? Just checking ...

The Daily Mail used a Saltire to cover his wedding tackle.

Anabobazina said:

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Quality football-related mischief from the Scots in London:
"Two men were arrested last night. A 25-year-old man was arrested for indecent exposure [i.e. being stark bollock naked for no readily apparent reason] in Hyde Park. He was taken into police custody before being cautioned and released.

Another man was arrested for the attempted theft of a police officer’s hat, assault with intent of avoiding arrest and assault of emergency worker. He was taken to a south London police station where he currently remains."

How do you know they were Scots? Just checking ...

The Daily Mail used a Saltire to cover his wedding tackle.

What was he, a natural ginger?!

isam said:

Is it too simplistic to say the Conservatives stayed at home and the rest went to the LDs?

The Con 2019>Con 2021 & Turnout 2019>Turnout 2021 numbers are very similar

My assumption was the LDs would hold their vote, and get half the Lab vote, while the Cons would keep two-thirds of their vote. That would have resulted in a 20k Con vs 17k LD vote share.

The Conservatives lost more than half their vote and the LDs were up more than the "lost" Labour vote, so I reckon at least some Tories voted LD. Maybe not a massive number, but probably at least a couple of thousand.

Carnyx said:

Anabobazina said:

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Quality football-related mischief from the Scots in London:
"Two men were arrested last night. A 25-year-old man was arrested for indecent exposure [i.e. being stark bollock naked for no readily apparent reason] in Hyde Park. He was taken into police custody before being cautioned and released.

Another man was arrested for the attempted theft of a police officer’s hat, assault with intent of avoiding arrest and assault of emergency worker. He was taken to a south London police station where he currently remains."

How do you know they were Scots? Just checking ...

The Daily Mail used a Saltire to cover his wedding tackle.

What was he, a natural ginger?!

I guess we’ll never know!

Photobombed my arse....not exactly like Jezza was just wandering along in the background.

https://order-order.com/2021/06/18/rayners-photobomb-present-but-not-involved/

Personally, I wouldn't want to get too close to him, with him refusing to get vaccinated and all.

Just been watching pictures of large groups of Scotland football fans down in London. Loads of them huddled together, singing enthusiastically, no masks. It's a big epidemiological experiment in the holding of multiple mass gatherings with no NPIs. The eventually outcome should prove enlightening.

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin says 89% of new coronavirus cases in the capital are caused by the Delta variant

Major crisis incoming on Russia.

Putin's disinformation campaign over vaccines likely hasn't helped.

The party line has now changed.
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1405891380006703113
Officials in Russia, where vaccine hesitancy remains high, are ordering frontline workers to be vaccinated as the highly infectious Delta variant spreads.

Russia has reported a 50 percent increase in daily cases over the past two weeks

/
How many Russian fans travelled to the footie .........?

rcs1000 said:

thespeaker said:

Cookie said:

thespeaker said:

Seems like the blood clot issue with vaccines is causing serious problems in the air if this is true

I'm calling bollocks on this. Sounds very much like the work of a Russian mischief-maker.

In fact, a quick Google reveals as much. It's bollocks.
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-aviation-idUSL2N2NZ1ZO

of course british airways will deny it. Why would they panic people

I have a question.

In the US, airline pilots were among the very first to receive vaccines, and it essentially impossible for a pilot with one of the big three not to have been fully vaccinated (with an mRNA vaccines).

Domestic airline traffic is now up about 400% year-over and is almost back at prepandemic levels.

And yet none of the US airlines are reporting either (a) deaths of pilots or (b) any problems finding pilots for planes.

Given that US pilots were among the very first to be vaccinated in the US, this and that there are nine times as many commercial pilots in the US (85,000) as in the UK (9,000), this is very odd.

Is there something specific about British Airways? Or is this a completely made up story?

A more pertinent question might be why @thespeaker was compelled to join PB solely for the purpose of peddling this dubious tale.
All seems a bit futile.