C&A will go back to the Tories at the next election with ease, failing some massive 1997 style turnaround at the national level.
A by-election asks a different question from a general election. At the by-election you are answering the question "are you happy with the government or not?". At a GE you are answering the question "on balance do you prefer this party to form a government or the opposition". Unless Kier suddenly offers an income tax cut for high earners the voters of C&A are going to tick the Tory box. That's why the party can continue to take them for granted.
Other more marginal seats though...
While I tend to agree, this is quite a large LibDem majority. If you look at historic by-elections wins they were usually by quite small margins:
Dunfermline - 1,800 votes Leicester South - 1,600 Brent East - 1,100 Romsey - 2,800 Littleborough and Saddleworth - 1,800 Eastleigh - 9,200
Newbury 1993 LD majority 22,000 following Tory majority of 12,000. Don't put money on LDs getting it back now (Tory maj 2019, 16,000)
Re: the stunning Cheshm and Amersham result, perhaps THIS from across the pond may be relevant?
Politico.com - ‘As Long as the Party Embraces Trump, It’s Going to Have Trouble’ The Republican collapse in Michigan’s Oakland County, once a stronghold, was a long time coming. Is losing these suburbs a warning light for Trumpism?
n the aftermath of the 2020 election, the Republican National Committee opted not to order an autopsy into what exactly led to the party’s decline in suburban communities that were, until recently, considered deep red.
But if RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel wanted to understand what happened, she could do worse than to look back at the place she was raised: Oakland County, Michigan. . . .
Ten years ago, Republicans held two of the four GOP-drawn U.S. House seats in Oakland (the other two were safe Democratic); now, all four are in Democratic hands. Democratic women now represent the Romney family’s hometown in the state House, state Senate and U.S. House (Rep. Haley Stevens). Ten years ago, Brooks Patterson, the silver-tongued sun-God around whom all local politics orbited, was county executive, and Republicans held four of the six countywide elected posts; Democrats now hold five of them, including the executive. After GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, Republicans had a 14-7 majority on the Oakland County Board of Commissioners; now, Democrats have an 11-10 edge and will control the county-level redistricting process for the first time in a half-century.The change is happening in lush, sylvan communities like Birmingham and Bloomfield—a place at least three generations of Romneys, McDaniel included, have called home. Here, generations of families with auto-baron surnames set roots. Here, they enrolled their kids at affluent public schools or even-more-affluent private schools with idyllic names like Country Day and Cranbrook. Here, they donated to and elected Republicans. At least, that is, until recently.
“That’s how I describe it to literally anyone from out of state,” laughs Mari Manoogian, a Democratic state Representative whose district encompasses much of the community. “They’re like, ‘Wait, you’re the state representative for Mitt Romney’s hometown?’ And I’m like, ‘Yeah!’” . . . .
I am always skeptical of people who would never vote republican in a thousand years offering the republicans advice.
The fact is, Trump is going to leverage the Maricopa audit and investigations elsewhere (Like Fulton County) to try to destroy Biden's legitimacy.
Will he succeed? I have no idea.
But he is going to try.
Perhaps. But he and the GOP are gonna have to do it without the support of MANY former voters who for MANY decades were the core of the Republican base, in this case affluent suburbanites.
Which is why Biden won Arizona BTW.
As for the "audits" methinks "thespeaker" has MORE credibility.
Lol - Mail Headline "Thousands of Scotland fans take over London's West End and shower rival England supporters with beer and set off blue and white flares as they defy police order to stay away - but why did Sturgeon allow them to travel?"
Just an FYI if any of you ever meet John Bercow tell him that you're a huge fan of his and his political judgment, tell him you really liked his Monday Club days, when they supported apartheid and repatriation of darkies from the UK.
Very oddly shaped man. Large head, average sized body and little legs as I recall. Like a puppet on a string
I remember one friend calling him "the Gollum of British politics. Small, stinking, and misshapen, yet strong, with a demonic inner drive."
So your lot made him a Conservative MP..... The rot didn't really start with Johnson, did it?
There have always been some horrible Conservative MP's.
Nailed it, Sean.
Far be it for me to defend the Conservative Party, but I name Elliot Morley, Chris Huhne, Jim Devine, Denis MacShane, Fiona Onasanya who are all non-Tory MPs who have done jail time, and don't seem paragons of repentance. Add to those some of the really obnoxious MPs from the Labour Party, who are not provenly criminal but just, well, painfully obnoxious: (Prescott, Skinner, Corbyn, Keith Vaz). Equally for all these arseholes there are also some very nice ones, as there are in the Conservative Party. Oh, and I almost forgot the guy that was described by his own QC as a bully and sex pest, oh what's his name...looks like a toad and only has one fan on here.
Yes there are some nice Tory MPs. I'd like to share a milkshake with James Cleverley for example. My favourite for personality is a Labour one though - Barry Gardiner.
Electoral Reform Society @electoralreform The government has announced plans that gut the UK’s independent Electoral Commission, representing a power grab over election scrutiny.
What's the pretext?
That the Cons are have read the briefing memos from the Heritage foundation are are implementing them.
You don't need a pretext, you just wield power untrammelled.
Did you ever find out why the Welsh figure is consistently so high, please?
Apols if it was explained - I must have missed it.
There is A More of Less podcast on the matter, essentially they get jabs in arms far faster than the rest of UK as carry less spare jabs as they took decisions early doors to de-risk the approach.
If rest of UK had followed same approach 5m more jabs would have been completed by now.
I was warned, when visiting London, to be much more careful when crossing the road than back home in Scotland. My friend said 'round here, they'll run you over as soon as look at you'.
Re: the stunning Cheshm and Amersham result, perhaps THIS from across the pond may be relevant?
Politico.com - ‘As Long as the Party Embraces Trump, It’s Going to Have Trouble’ The Republican collapse in Michigan’s Oakland County, once a stronghold, was a long time coming. Is losing these suburbs a warning light for Trumpism?
n the aftermath of the 2020 election, the Republican National Committee opted not to order an autopsy into what exactly led to the party’s decline in suburban communities that were, until recently, considered deep red.
But if RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel wanted to understand what happened, she could do worse than to look back at the place she was raised: Oakland County, Michigan. . . .
Ten years ago, Republicans held two of the four GOP-drawn U.S. House seats in Oakland (the other two were safe Democratic); now, all four are in Democratic hands. Democratic women now represent the Romney family’s hometown in the state House, state Senate and U.S. House (Rep. Haley Stevens). Ten years ago, Brooks Patterson, the silver-tongued sun-God around whom all local politics orbited, was county executive, and Republicans held four of the six countywide elected posts; Democrats now hold five of them, including the executive. After GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, Republicans had a 14-7 majority on the Oakland County Board of Commissioners; now, Democrats have an 11-10 edge and will control the county-level redistricting process for the first time in a half-century.The change is happening in lush, sylvan communities like Birmingham and Bloomfield—a place at least three generations of Romneys, McDaniel included, have called home. Here, generations of families with auto-baron surnames set roots. Here, they enrolled their kids at affluent public schools or even-more-affluent private schools with idyllic names like Country Day and Cranbrook. Here, they donated to and elected Republicans. At least, that is, until recently.
“That’s how I describe it to literally anyone from out of state,” laughs Mari Manoogian, a Democratic state Representative whose district encompasses much of the community. “They’re like, ‘Wait, you’re the state representative for Mitt Romney’s hometown?’ And I’m like, ‘Yeah!’” . . . .
I am always skeptical of people who would never vote republican in a thousand years offering the republicans advice.
The fact is, Trump is going to leverage the Maricopa audit and investigations elsewhere (Like Fulton County) to try to destroy Biden's legitimacy.
Will he succeed? I have no idea.
But he is going to try.
Perhaps. But he and the GOP are gonna have to do it without the support of MANY former voters who for MANY decades were the core of the Republican base, in this case affluent suburbanites.
Which is why Biden won Arizona BTW.
As for the "audits" methinks "thespeaker" has MORE credibility.
I liked the bit where they checked ballot papers for bamboo fibres because one of the conspiracy theories is that a bunch of Biden ballot papers came from China.
Just an FYI if any of you ever meet John Bercow tell him that you're a huge fan of his and his political judgment, tell him you really liked his Monday Club days, when they supported apartheid and repatriation of darkies from the UK.
Very oddly shaped man. Large head, average sized body and little legs as I recall. Like a puppet on a string
I remember one friend calling him "the Gollum of British politics. Small, stinking, and misshapen, yet strong, with a demonic inner drive."
So your lot made him a Conservative MP..... The rot didn't really start with Johnson, did it?
There have always been some horrible Conservative MP's.
Nailed it, Sean.
Far be it for me to defend the Conservative Party, but I name Elliot Morley, Chris Huhne, Jim Devine, Denis MacShane, Fiona Onasanya who are all non-Tory MPs who have done jail time, and don't seem paragons of repentance. Add to those some of the really obnoxious MPs from the Labour Party, who are not provenly criminal but just, well, painfully obnoxious: (Prescott, Skinner, Corbyn, Keith Vaz). Equally for all these arseholes there are also some very nice ones, as there are in the Conservative Party. Oh, and I almost forgot the guy that was described by his own QC as a bully and sex pest, oh what's his name...looks like a toad and only has one fan on here.
Yes there are some nice Tory MPs. I'd like to share a milkshake with James Cleverley for example. My favourite for personality is a Labour one though - Barry Gardiner.
Absolutely. He is a credit to Haileybury. Lab could do with a few more public schoolboys.
Really? Ventilator numbers still rising in the North East.
Was chatting to someone earlier today - group of 10 went to the pub, all 10 of them now have Covid.
Yes, I think there's far too much complacency on here, even from the expert epidemiologists and modellers. This delta variant spreads like wildfire, and current (lack of) restrictions are helping it do so. At my daughter's college they are struggling to contain a spread involving many students and staff, with many of the staff not yet double-vaxxed.
I'm not suggesting restrictions should be reintroduced. But I do think we have a bigger problem than many on here have been suggesting over the last few weeks. We have been badly bitten before through complacency; it can happen again.
Where do you expect the hospitalisations and deaths to come from? And in what magnitude? Genuine question, I’m trying to work out where and how because the vaccines are working extremely well.
Genuine answer - I don't know. But it does looks as if both hospitalisations and deaths are rising, albeit gradually, especially in the case of the latter. Although vaccine efficacy is very high, maybe it's not quite high enough to stop growing hospitalisations/deaths if case rates become too high.
We have to ride the exit wave at some stage in the game. Better to do so in the summer than in the autumn surely?
Newcastle surfing that exit wave all the way to the shore. Last night reminded me of fresher's week, only all ages involved this time. Full on bacchanalia. Shortly before we were locked down on September 18. Hopefully the vaccines will do their job this time. All will be revealed in time.
People have to be allowed to live their lives at some stage, free of government diktat. They have to be able to judge risks for themselves.
Just an FYI if any of you ever meet John Bercow tell him that you're a huge fan of his and his political judgment, tell him you really liked his Monday Club days, when they supported apartheid and repatriation of darkies from the UK.
Very oddly shaped man. Large head, average sized body and little legs as I recall. Like a puppet on a string
I remember one friend calling him "the Gollum of British politics. Small, stinking, and misshapen, yet strong, with a demonic inner drive."
So your lot made him a Conservative MP..... The rot didn't really start with Johnson, did it?
There have always been some horrible Conservative MP's.
Nailed it, Sean.
Far be it for me to defend the Conservative Party, but I name Elliot Morley, Chris Huhne, Jim Devine, Denis MacShane, Fiona Onasanya who are all non-Tory MPs who have done jail time, and don't seem paragons of repentance. Add to those some of the really obnoxious MPs from the Labour Party, who are not provenly criminal but just, well, painfully obnoxious: (Prescott, Skinner, Corbyn, Keith Vaz). Equally for all these arseholes there are also some very nice ones, as there are in the Conservative Party. Oh, and I almost forgot the guy that was described by his own QC as a bully and sex pest, oh what's his name...looks like a toad and only has one fan on here.
Yes there are some nice Tory MPs. I'd like to share a milkshake with James Cleverley for example. My favourite for personality is a Labour one though - Barry Gardiner.
Absolutely. He is a credit to Haileybury. Lab could do with a few more public schoolboys.
They did quite well when they had one leading the party I seem to remember lol.
Blimey. By-election in Wakefield coming up surely ?
Only if convicted surely ? Nigel Evans didn't quit when he was on trial.
Iirc, in that case the alleged victims were over 18, which makes a big difference.
I don't think it does.
An MP may in practice need to resign prior to trial if they are being held on remand for an extended period (which would really only be at the top end of seriousness, where they are a flight risk or a danger to the public or particular individuals). They'd then be unable to fulfil vital functions like voting. They may also step down if the reality is they are going to plead guilty and just want to reduce the glare of publicity.
But I don't see why they'd need to, or even why it would be right to call for them to go, over allegations they vehemently deny unless and until convicted. Seriousness of the offence doesn't come into it - and those facing Nigel Evans were extremely serious - if they deny it (as Evans did) then the court decides and, if they acquit (as with Evans) they are innocent people.
I know nothing of the detail on this case. Suffice to say, if he's acquitted or the trial collapses for whatever reason then he is an innocent man and there is no case for him to go.
In some slightly better news from sunny Andalucia - they are bringing forward 2nd AZN jabs for 60-69 yr olds by 2 weeks. Means I have just 4 weeks to wait now to beat the dreaded Delta before it takes over here. The news shows they are worried and I remain nervous that the July/August tourist surge is a seriously dangerous gamble.
Really? Ventilator numbers still rising in the North East.
Was chatting to someone earlier today - group of 10 went to the pub, all 10 of them now have Covid.
Yes, I think there's far too much complacency on here, even from the expert epidemiologists and modellers. This delta variant spreads like wildfire, and current (lack of) restrictions are helping it do so. At my daughter's college they are struggling to contain a spread involving many students and staff, with many of the staff not yet double-vaxxed.
I'm not suggesting restrictions should be reintroduced. But I do think we have a bigger problem than many on here have been suggesting over the last few weeks. We have been badly bitten before through complacency; it can happen again.
Where do you expect the hospitalisations and deaths to come from? And in what magnitude? Genuine question, I’m trying to work out where and how because the vaccines are working extremely well.
Genuine answer - I don't know. But it does looks as if both hospitalisations and deaths are rising, albeit gradually, especially in the case of the latter. Although vaccine efficacy is very high, maybe it's not quite high enough to stop growing hospitalisations/deaths if case rates become too high. I'd be more comfortable if, at this stage in the race between vaccinations and infections, a higher proportion of the population were double-vaxxed. It's a pity the timings aren't quite right.
The hospital numbers for the country as a whole will likely keep going up for some weeks, and more deaths are bound to follow. The important thing for the Government to look at is whether or not any of the individual hospitals are really beginning to struggle, or if patient numbers are plateauing at manageable levels.
If we wait for the wretched disease to disappear then we shall be stuck with restrictions forever.
The comments here are still as weird as ever.
Really this is not so complicated. A certain percentage of cases will still result in hospitalisation, and a certain percentage in death.
It's not trivial to estimate those percentages accurate. But it's obvious what they are to a fair approximation. Of course they are lower than they were before vaccination. But not hugely lower. Recall that about 30% of the deaths are currently among the fully vaccinated (which is now nearly 60% of the adult population).
Those percentages will change only on a timescale of several months - particularly given the current relatively slow pace of vaccination.
So we know pretty well how fast hospitalisations and deaths are going to increase if cases continue to grow at the current rate of 33% a week, which seems to have stabilised for the moment. As things are going now, it will be about 10 weeks (late August) until the January peak in the rate of hospital admissions is reached.
Villiers: 'This by-election result should pave the way for a reduction in housing targets for the London suburbs and the south east. We need a fairer distribution of new homes across the country, rather than seeking to cram so many thousands more into the crowded south."
Would she be in favour of moving the UK parliament to York ?
Comments
Which is why Biden won Arizona BTW.
As for the "audits" methinks "thespeaker" has MORE credibility.
Apols if it was explained - I must have missed it.
Doubt they'd listen to Sturgeon tbh
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1405811512401436675
Drunk Scot tries to cross the road .....
You don't need a pretext, you just wield power untrammelled.
If rest of UK had followed same approach 5m more jabs would have been completed by now.
I was warned, when visiting London, to be much more careful when crossing the road than back home in Scotland. My friend said 'round here, they'll run you over as soon as look at you'.
NEW THREAD
What's been happening in the meantime?
https://twitter.com/davesgould/status/1405907052111802368?s=20
An MP may in practice need to resign prior to trial if they are being held on remand for an extended period (which would really only be at the top end of seriousness, where they are a flight risk or a danger to the public or particular individuals). They'd then be unable to fulfil vital functions like voting. They may also step down if the reality is they are going to plead guilty and just want to reduce the glare of publicity.
But I don't see why they'd need to, or even why it would be right to call for them to go, over allegations they vehemently deny unless and until convicted. Seriousness of the offence doesn't come into it - and those facing Nigel Evans were extremely serious - if they deny it (as Evans did) then the court decides and, if they acquit (as with Evans) they are innocent people.
I know nothing of the detail on this case. Suffice to say, if he's acquitted or the trial collapses for whatever reason then he is an innocent man and there is no case for him to go.
Really this is not so complicated. A certain percentage of cases will still result in hospitalisation, and a certain percentage in death.
It's not trivial to estimate those percentages accurate. But it's obvious what they are to a fair approximation. Of course they are lower than they were before vaccination. But not hugely lower. Recall that about 30% of the deaths are currently among the fully vaccinated (which is now nearly 60% of the adult population).
Those percentages will change only on a timescale of several months - particularly given the current relatively slow pace of vaccination.
So we know pretty well how fast hospitalisations and deaths are going to increase if cases continue to grow at the current rate of 33% a week, which seems to have stabilised for the moment. As things are going now, it will be about 10 weeks (late August) until the January peak in the rate of hospital admissions is reached.