The LDs take Chesham and Amersham with a 25% CON to LD swing – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Housing and the NI protocol are the two Kobayashi Maru of British politics.CarlottaVance said:Indeed:
Side note, but the number of MPs who, like Kit Malthouse, can say "I was Housing Minister for a year" explains a LOT about Britain's housing problems.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1405782068521472001?s=200 -
As so many Tories on here didn't say the morning after Hartlepool.Philip_Thompson said:
Oh give over.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic
It's a by election.4 -
Of course it won'tHYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
His seat is not too demographically dissimilar to C and A is it not...Stuartinromford said:Oh to be a fly on the wall in No 10 this morning.
It's a long time since Boris has been on the losing side.
I'd stay out of the way if I were you, Dilyn.0 -
The Tories have a hammer lock over most of the South West, Kent, Essex, East Anglia, Hertfordshire, so they are nowhere close to losing the South. Where the Lib Dems have an opening is in some commuter-belt constituencies.HYUFD said:
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the North and Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and the inner cities and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s0 -
Genuinely awesome LibDem result which I regret not staying up for - kudos to Mike for having pointed us at it for weeks. It'll be fascinating to see what the national polls do now. Clearly a risk for Labour as well as tories, especially if B+S is lost.
The Reform UK flop is a reminder of how little traction the "freedom" line has outside political circles like PB.5 -
It's not sneering to be mentioning NIMBYism since it was a key element of the Lib Dems campaign.Richard_Tyndall said:
You misread my post (being generous). It is the sneerers who are projecting their views of the result onto the electorate and then using that as the basis for attacking the voters. Look at the NIMBY comments on here this morning already (as just one example).IshmaelZ said:
That's a fallacy. There isn't a mindset of voters on the ground, there are multiple mindsets, one per voter. To adopt one of those at the expense of others is not sneering at anyone.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
It is all part of the process of trivialising the many and varied concerns of the local voters as a precursor to ignoring them. Rationalise that the voters are the ones being unreasonable and use that as an excuse to carry on regardless with no serious analysis or reflection. We saw Labour do it time and time again when they were in power and Corbynistas do it in the aftermath of 2019. Now it is Tories (and others) on here.
All week this week I've said that the Tories deserve to lose the seat following Boris failing to proceed with Step 4, but it's a shame the LDs are going down the NIMBY path which is popular but wrong ethically to me.
Why following the result should anything else be said.
NIMBYism is a flaw in democracy. If 60% of a seat think they can make themselves richer by making 40% poorer then that can be popular democratically even if it's unethical and wrong economically.
Still democracy is better than any alternative system.0 -
When we were hardly doing any testing? They probably were thenAlistair said:
Cast your mind back to when Sturgeon said Scotland's infection rate was half of England's using those figures.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.Alistair said:
I remember the times you said those figures were use less and only the ONS figures should be used.CarlottaVance said:What could possibly go wrong?
COVID Case Rate
Scotland: 116
London: 71
Just as well Nicola & Useless have told supporters not to travel.....oh...
You may be confusing my comments on vaccination rates, where the NIMS & ONS numbers vary widely, particularly in mobile population cities.0 -
I'm surprised that Labour got as many as 622 votes last night. Why would you vote Labour under those particular circumstances? Even I, as loyal a Labour voter as you could imagine, would have held my nose and voted Lib Dem - for once, defeating the Tories was the only aim. I don't think this says much about Labour, or the Lib Dems for that matter, who have hardly resonated with the public generally in recent times.
Batley & Spen is a different matter entirely, of course.0 -
Here's a theory.
New house building in C&A type seats leads to lower house prices overall.
New house building in 'red wall' seats leads to higher house prices overall.
The difference being that new housing in C&A is smaller and cheaper than that already there - I'm not sure of this, not my area.
Whereas the new estates built in old mining areas have houses that are bigger and more expensive than those in the pit villages.2 -
Not complacency, just based upon 35 years' observation of politics.ThomasNashe said:
I really hope this kind of complacency is typical of the Tory party as a whole, but I don’t know if it is.Sean_F said:
I’d expect it to revert to the Conservatives at the GE, unless the new MP can build up a very big personal vote.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Factors in Chesham & Amersham 2021
> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)
> demographic & attitudinal shifts
> Brexit - leave versus remain
> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants
> Freedom Day announcement > postponement
> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)
> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons
> by-election blast OR political transformation?
Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.
A realignment on the basis of Brexit/anti-Brexit benefits the Tories because the Brexit vote is more efficiently distributed than the anti-Brexit vote.1 -
By elections tend to see the government get a bloody nose, not the opposition.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
As so many Tories on here didn't say the morning after Hartlepool.Philip_Thompson said:
Oh give over.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic
It's a by election.1 -
It is a pattern we also saw in the local elections across the Home Counties, a surge of Nimbyism and votes going from Tory to LD and Green in opposition to any new building on the greenbelt exacerbated in Chesham and Amersham last night as it was 55% Remain and anti BrexitPhilip_Thompson said:
Oh give over.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic
It's a by election.0 -
Yup, the triple lock needs to go. It's a huge cost to the nation. NI on pension income and windfall taxes on defined benefit pension income.Casino_Royale said:
The obvious way to square the circle is to keep the tax burden the same but strip the welfare off the retired and "solve" social care, and then use those savings to level up the north.MaxPB said:
My issue is that every spending pledge for the North, Scotland, Midlands and everywhere else in the country just adds up to higher taxes for people in London and the South East. I don't think I'm alone in that and the voters of C&A have shown this. This government is bribing voters in the North with our tax.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, it's a good article.IanB2 said:
That linked Times article, from which I copied some extracts above, says it very clearlyCasino_Royale said:
I'd say if Brexit was your chief concern you'd have been amongst the 25k that voted for Labour, LD or the Greens at the 2019 election, no? And I note the LDs got only 15k of that.IanB2 said:
Yes and no. Not dissatisfaction with Brexit specifically, but Brexit is part of the Tories’ shift away from the educated middle classes in search of its new constituency, and that new constituency isn’t C & A.Casino_Royale said:
Let me disavow you of something straight away: this by-election isn't about Brexit.Dura_Ace said:
What has been forgotten in the tories' recent fleg strewn auto da fé is that there are still millions of people and therefore voters who fucking hate Brexit. Not even so much the actuality of it but the reactionary, intellectually impoverished and essentially eugenicist worldview it typifies.Cocky_cockney said:
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
See my post on confirmation bias.
Sarah Greens grand vote total is less than that at 21k.
It looks to me like all progressives rallied around her, and turned out, whilst Conservatives sat at home. If they'd all turned out at GE levels it would have been (by my reckoning) very marginal.
The key point is this: if you were virulently anti-Brexit (and there's definitely c.25% of the population like that) you were already voting Lib Dem.
Some core cost of living stuff there. Basically, the Tories need to end the triple lock now (don't care about the manifesto: blame it on Covid.. whatever; they've had a great 10 years) and flip the funding to housing, childcare, and infrastructure improvements.
By the time of the next election the oldies will have got over it, and maybe a few more of working age (particularly in their 30s) will consider Tory.
Add in the lockdown delay and the resultant loss of the vaccine bounce and we can expect this kind of result to become normal in the pissed off English South.
The Tories can then keep a modest tax and fiscally dry prospectus nationwide. The oldies will still vote for them in 2-3 years time.2 -
So the only way to successfully deal with Northern Ireland is to cheat?Casino_Royale said:
Housing and the NI protocol are the two Kobayashi Maru of British politics.CarlottaVance said:Indeed:
Side note, but the number of MPs who, like Kit Malthouse, can say "I was Housing Minister for a year" explains a LOT about Britain's housing problems.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1405782068521472001?s=20
Is Boris Captain Kirk then?0 -
Yes, that is precisely what is wrong with the divisive Populism of the current Tory party. NIMBYism writ large.Philip_Thompson said:
If 60% of a seat think they can make themselves richer by making 40% poorer then that can be popular democratically even if it's unethical and wrong economically.Richard_Tyndall said:
You misread my post (being generous). It is the sneerers who are projecting their views of the result onto the electorate and then using that as the basis for attacking the voters. Look at the NIMBY comments on here this morning already (as just one example).IshmaelZ said:
That's a fallacy. There isn't a mindset of voters on the ground, there are multiple mindsets, one per voter. To adopt one of those at the expense of others is not sneering at anyone.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
It is all part of the process of trivialising the many and varied concerns of the local voters as a precursor to ignoring them. Rationalise that the voters are the ones being unreasonable and use that as an excuse to carry on regardless with no serious analysis or reflection. We saw Labour do it time and time again when they were in power and Corbynistas do it in the aftermath of 2019. Now it is Tories (and others) on here.1 -
Stocky is a top tipster when it comes to football, and I have to say 1-0 to Scotland is not inconceivable.Casino_Royale said:
I know the LDs have won an unlikely by-election, but don't get too carried away..Stocky said:Turning to the footy tonight, I mentioned yesterday that Scotland are overpriced IMO to win 1-0 at 26. I now see the price is 29. I've topped up. If I were pricing that I'd go about 12's I think. 14 tops.
0 -
So what does the weather in London combined with a big England-Scotland match mean for Covid infection rates in the Capital?
And on a minor point - World Test final could be a bit of a damp squib...0 -
And Health. And Education.Casino_Royale said:
Housing and the NI protocol are the two Kobayashi Maru of British politics.CarlottaVance said:Indeed:
Side note, but the number of MPs who, like Kit Malthouse, can say "I was Housing Minister for a year" explains a LOT about Britain's housing problems.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1405782068521472001?s=200 -
Mike "This is my biggest political betting win."
Nice when you not only have the satisfaction of kicking a nasty piece of shit in the groin but you make money out of it too!
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Rayner is one of their better options. There is a lack of talent due to the fact that a lot of the Corbyn era MPs are just really local campaigners who arrived on the scene accidentally. Many of them just don't seem to be particularly bright. They need to find someone who can engineer a Boris like reinvention of the party, but this is made difficult by the lack of authority that they have as leader. The more likely outcome is a decline in to irrellevance.Tabman said:
We can but hope.HYUFD said:
If they are that stupid to pick Rayner then Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs and deserve to.darkage said:
Don't underestimate labour members, who elected Corbyn twice.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good Labour leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
Rayner would finally kill of the Labour Party as the main party of opposition and for that we should be thankful0 -
Not quite as rich but it's the end of a different part of the Metropolitan line.Foxy said:
His seat is not too demographically dissimilar to C and A is it not...Stuartinromford said:Oh to be a fly on the wall in No 10 this morning.
It's a long time since Boris has been on the losing side.
I'd stay out of the way if I were you, Dilyn.0 -
It has to be said it is a disappointing result for Reform. Alnost no cut through right now.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.
Maybe when conservative voters are unhappy, they simply do not vote.2 -
That's a good point.IanB2 said:
What Labour doesn’t, yet, understand is that the reciprocity won’t come in terms of votes or in terms of seats, but from being the largest party in the first non-Tory government for what by then will have been a long time. We don’t get there until Labour comes to terms with not being able to win a majority; whatever people say about SKS, you can’t fault him for not seeing the bigger picture and focusing on bringing this reality home to his party.Cocky_cockney said:
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.ydoethur said:
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.Jonathan said:
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.ydoethur said:
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.Jonathan said:Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Can they voluntarily give up the idea of two party duopoly, though ? Labour, perhaps even more than the Tories, are hooked on the power FPTP gives governments to remake society in their image, on a minority of the popular vote.0 -
Congratulations to the LibDems and all those PBers who made money from the result.
And some astute anti-Tory tactical voting to give the yellows their thumping win.
Next stop Batley.1 -
Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.1 -
Does this result mean that 19 July if more likely to be adhered to or less? Or does it make no difference?0
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blockquote class="Quote" rel="RochdalePioneers">
Yes. The DUP really have turned into Gozer the Destructor if you are a Unionist. Sweeping aside the UUP their grand old man managed to set aside decades of NO! and make peace with the IRA. Look what his successors have done with that amazing political settlement!OldKingCole said:O/t, I realise, but is it expected that there will be an election in Northern Ireland. The DUP seem to be in 'ferrets in a sack' mode. Could surely lead to an SF led Administration.
The reality check is that the DUP deserve to be swept away. Electing a psychotic creationist as leader, being anti-women's rights, anti-21st Century societal progress and apparently pro-separation from GB.
Lets have an election (again). A few will vote for the ultra-hard line alternative, the rest (hopefully) vote for the Alliance and softer UUP. If Sinn Fein top the poll, well...
I don't know what they're playing at. There must be a good chance of the UUP now topping 20%. Their leader seems like a good man.1 -
Freedom Day was yesterday, young HY. It is the beginning of the end for this centralised authoritarian government. We the electorate are beginning to Take Back Control.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
The concern going forward for the LDs will be do they have enough members to cover all their potential options in the Home Counties.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
For there is now a large number of potential wins there but it will require numbers to win the many options.0 -
True but those were more Leave areas of the South (excluding say St Albans or Cambridge and Bristol), however if you are a Tory MP in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire or Hampshire (or indeed Tunbridge Wells) this morning which were more Remain and where the LDs are your main opponents you would be in panic mode this morningSean_F said:
The Tories have a hammer lock over most of the South West, Kent, Essex, East Anglia, Hertfordshire, so they are nowhere close to losing the South. Where the Lib Dems have an opening is in some commuter-belt constituencies.HYUFD said:
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the North and Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and the inner cities and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s1 -
Morning all.
So that's OGH's Tesla sorted, then.
Well done to the Yellow Peril - I wonder what this will do for Ed's leadership?0 -
That is certainly true for somewhere like Pontefract. Loads of new houses built on the old pit sites populated by those previously referred to as 'Mondeo Man' and his family.another_richard said:Here's a theory.
New house building in C&A type seats leads to lower house prices overall.
New house building in 'red wall' seats leads to higher house prices overall.
The difference being that new housing in C&A is smaller and cheaper than that already there - I'm not sure of this, not my area.
Whereas the new estates built in old mining areas have houses that are bigger and more expensive than those in the pit villages.1 -
Yes, a very useful observation. Very true of the new estates around Coalville in NWLeics, now a safe Tory seat despite having a contender for stupidest Tory MP in Andrew Bridgen.another_richard said:Here's a theory.
New house building in C&A type seats leads to lower house prices overall.
New house building in 'red wall' seats leads to higher house prices overall.
The difference being that new housing in C&A is smaller and cheaper than that already there - I'm not sure of this, not my area.
Whereas the new estates built in old mining areas have houses that are bigger and more expensive than those in the pit villages.2 -
Quite a few vote LibDem as this result shows. Just imagine what the LDs could achieve if they become vocal about the withdrawal of personal liberties.contrarian said:
It has to be said it is a disappointing result for Reform. Alnost no cut through right now.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.
Maybe when conservative voters are unhappy, they simply do not vote.0 -
Even in the South East, 51% went for Brexit. The majority of South Eastern seats are pro-Brexit.HYUFD said:
True but those were more Leave areas of the South (excluding say St Albans or Cambridge and Bristol), if you are a Tory MP in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire or Hampshire (or indeed Tunbridge Wells) this morning which were more Remain and where the LDs are your main opponents however you would be in panic mode this morningSean_F said:
The Tories have a hammer lock over most of the South West, Kent, Essex, East Anglia, Hertfordshire, so they are nowhere close to losing the South. Where the Lib Dems have an opening is in some commuter-belt constituencies.HYUFD said:
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the North and Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and the inner cities and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s
Ultimately, though, the impact of Brexit will fade. The Conservatives need to keep their nerve on housebuilding, even if it alienates some existing homeowners. In the long run, people who own their own homes are likely to vote Conservative, and those who don't won't.1 -
You think if any party gets into power they wouldn't centralize such a thing? Give me a break.Foxy said:
No, It is about local decisions by local communities.Gallowgate said:That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
It is not just the Red Wall that is fed up with arrogant centralised decision-making riding roughshod over local sensibilities.
All parties talk about empowering local government too, butbwhen given the chance it's not a priority.1 -
Off topic:
I've just received a surprisingly quick response to an NHS referral for a non-urgent condition (nasal polyp).
I wonder if some extra-caution wrt unlocking is being exercised to keep NHS services ramping back more quickly without disruption, and how heavily non-Covid deaths are weighing in the balance?
But I have no numbers.
@Foxy ?0 -
Banging on about lockdown just isn't enough to excite the caravan dwelling loons in fag burned cardigans that are their target audience. Immigration would have been more fertile ground for them.contrarian said:
It has to be said it is a disappointing result for Reform. Alnost no cut through right now.
Maybe when conservative voters are unhappy, they simply do not vote.
It is refereshing to have some proper politics to discuss instead of those endless fucking graphs being dissected by TK Maxx epidemiologists.0 -
Well done BTW. I thought LDs might scrape it, but you were calling it for a substantial win last week as I recall.ClippP said:
Freedom Day was yesterday, young HY. It is the beginning of the end for this centralised authoritarian government. We the electorate are beginning to Take Back Control.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
Rightly or wrongly political coverage is built on narratives. Chesham looks like changing the mood a bit. Great result for the Lib Dems first and foremost but Batley & Spen now provides Starmer with an opportunity to reset the narrative on his leadership too. But can he take it?
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1405792606219550720?s=201 -
The Lib Dems should be alright so long as they don't go for that silly decapitation strategy.eek said:
The concern going forward for the LDs will be do they have enough members to cover all their potential options in the Home Counties.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
For there is now a large number of potential wins there but it will require numbers to win the many options.0 -
That's all true. Maybe it's just having various templates of what a Prime Minister looks/sounds like and she doesn't fit any of them. I'd prefer Jess Phillips. She's got fire and a personality which is something I struggle to see in RaynerFoxy said:
She doesn't accumulate enemies within the party, and that is a very useful skill indeed. She is a loyalist to the leadership, standing by Corbyn when few others in the PLP would, and even not directly criticising Starmer when he was trying to sack her after Hartlepool.Roger said:
I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
She was a successful union negotiator, and that shows. Called in for a sacking by SKS, but leaving the room with a better portfolio.
Never confuse a lack of formal education with a lack of intelligence.1 -
Which might mean the Honourable Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip will not stand again and risk defeat, meaning a later general election and/or an earlier retirement from Number 10.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.0 -
Indeed and here's the downside for the conservatives.Stocky said:
Quite a few vote LibDem as this result shows. Just imagine what the LDs could achieve if they become vocal about the withdrawal of personal liberties.contrarian said:
It has to be said it is a disappointing result for Reform. Alnost no cut through right now.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.
Maybe when conservative voters are unhappy, they simply do not vote.
Every party right now, every party, is the party of high taxes.
Look at the public finances. You more or less have to be.
1 -
Last night's result was more NIMBY Day than Freedom DayClippP said:
Freedom Day was yesterday, young HY. It is the beginning of the end for this centralised authoritarian government. We the electorate are beginning to Take Back Control.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
They’ll be playing this clip on repeat in LibDem By-Election School: “the LibDems not only threw the kitchen sink at this but the microwave, the oven, the table, the dog and the cat”
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1405792768203575296?s=20
And pretty good concession speech from Fleet.0 -
Having made a modest few bob on this one (a vanishingly rare occurrence, being the world's worst predictor) I offer this thought: At no point was there any real publicly available data as to how this election was going, although it was always obvious that it was Con v LD. No polling. Little worthwhile press coverage. Nothing LDs say can be relied on. So on the data available, given the LDs track record in by elections and the entitled, remainery, elite nature of the constituency, it was in truth an even money bet between the two. So I backed the LDs given the odds, like everyone else not having a clue which would win.Richard_Tyndall said:
True but there was at least an acceptance that it was both possible and more likely than the PB talking heads were implying.Stocky said:
Good post but OGH, and others, were not saying this was a likely result; rather that the probability of a LD win was considerably higher than the odds implied.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
One other thought: C & A are too late. Their big chance fell in 2019 when urban and southern Remainland could have voted in a GE to Remain they conspicuously didn't. Lab, LD, Green and SNP had a huge opportunity to take the matter back into their hands. Politicians and voters screwed up big time and there is no going back.
2 -
Some ministries are like that. Work and Pensions used to be until Cameron was so stable in his cabinet.CarlottaVance said:Indeed:
Side note, but the number of MPs who, like Kit Malthouse, can say "I was Housing Minister for a year" explains a LOT about Britain's housing problems.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1405782068521472001?s=200 -
He is untouchable now before next GE I reckon.MattW said:Morning all.
So that's OGH's Tesla sorted, then.
Well done to the Yellow Peril - I wonder what this will do for Ed's leadership?0 -
Beth Rigby forgets about Airdrie
• First time since 1992-1997 parliament (Christchurch & Newbury) that the first two by-elections have resulted in seats changing hands1 -
The LDs got a 25% swing last night in a seat which voted 45% for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Even in the South East, 51% went for Brexit. The majority of South Eastern seats are pro-Brexit.HYUFD said:
True but those were more Leave areas of the South (excluding say St Albans or Cambridge and Bristol), if you are a Tory MP in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire or Hampshire (or indeed Tunbridge Wells) this morning which were more Remain and where the LDs are your main opponents however you would be in panic mode this morningSean_F said:
The Tories have a hammer lock over most of the South West, Kent, Essex, East Anglia, Hertfordshire, so they are nowhere close to losing the South. Where the Lib Dems have an opening is in some commuter-belt constituencies.HYUFD said:
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the North and Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and the inner cities and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s
Ultimately, though, the impact of Brexit will fade. The Conservatives need to keep their nerve on housebuilding, even if it alienates some existing homeowners. In the long run, people who own their own homes are likely to vote Conservative, and those who don't won't.
If that swing was repeated in 2024 every single Tory Remain seat in the South would go LD and indeed every southern Tory Seat which voted for Brexit by less than 60% would also be at risk of going LD.
Housebuilding just adds to that shift to the LDs further, these are not seats at risk of going Labour because too many rent (that is more a London Tories problem), these are seats still majority owner occupier being pushed LD because of fury at proposed developments in the greenbelt1 -
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth (or nose!).MattW said:Off topic:
I've just received a surprisingly quick response to an NHS referral for a non-urgent condition (nasal polyp).
I wonder if some extra-caution wrt unlocking is being exercised to keep NHS services ramping back more quickly without disruption, and how heavily non-Covid deaths are weighing in the balance?
But I have no numbers.
@Foxy ?
My department still has loads of routine appointments from referrals sent in August that we haven't given dates to.
With social distancing and PPE, each week we dig our hole a bit deeper.1 -
Super target 50 if you've got the money, rest make do. Not sure that's very different to previous strategies though. They won Bath partly as everyone locally was pulled into it.CarlottaVance said:
The challenge, as ever, for the LDs is how they scale (a brilliant) by-election result into a GE - they can't. Ed Davey can't visit 600+ constituencies eleven times as he did here. By-elections and general elections are different beasts.ThomasNashe said:
I really hope this kind of complacency is typical of the Tory party as a whole, but I don’t know if it is.Sean_F said:
I’d expect it to revert to the Conservatives at the GE, unless the new MP can build up a very big personal vote.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Factors in Chesham & Amersham 2021
> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)
> demographic & attitudinal shifts
> Brexit - leave versus remain
> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants
> Freedom Day announcement > postponement
> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)
> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons
> by-election blast OR political transformation?
Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.
A realignment on the basis of Brexit/anti-Brexit benefits the Tories because the Brexit vote is more efficiently distributed than the anti-Brexit vote.0 -
Perhaps some tory voters are looking at the public finances and thinking 'lets try to preserve something...our homes and their situation....'HYUFD said:
Last night's result was more NIMBY Day than Freedom DayClippP said:
Freedom Day was yesterday, young HY. It is the beginning of the end for this centralised authoritarian government. We the electorate are beginning to Take Back Control.HYUFD said:
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
The first rule change impacts this weekend, though - an extra PSI overall, plus stricter checks. The latter ought to impact Red bull disproportionately, since they'll have to stop gaming the rules.Sandpit said:
The latest suggestion was that RB were using hot and humid ‘air’ to fill the tyres, just before the pressure measurement was taken. This air then cools off and the pressure drops. From next year, they will have to run a standard pressure monitoring system feeding back to the FIA.Nigelb said:
And Pirelli confirm the tyre failures were as a result of Red Bull and Aston Martin running them at too low a pressure.Nigelb said:As predicted, a new chassis for Bottas (and Hamilton).
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/
If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.
The rule tightening will almost certainly affect their performance.0 -
Roger said:
That's all true. Maybe it's just having various templates of what a Prime Minister looks/sounds like and she doesn't fit any of them. I'd prefer Jess Phillips. She's got fire and a personality which is something I struggle to see in RaynerFoxy said:
She doesn't accumulate enemies within the party, and that is a very useful skill indeed. She is a loyalist to the leadership, standing by Corbyn when few others in the PLP would, and even not directly criticising Starmer when he was trying to sack her after Hartlepool.Roger said:
I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
She was a successful union negotiator, and that shows. Called in for a sacking by SKS, but leaving the room with a better portfolio.
Never confuse a lack of formal education with a lack of intelligence.
Boris v Jess Phillips would be proper box office, and as with Boris v Sturgeon you can't be sure he would win. Rayner, like SKS could never win a GE.Roger said:
That's all true. Maybe it's just having various templates of what a Prime Minister looks/sounds like and she doesn't fit any of them. I'd prefer Jess Phillips. She's got fire and a personality which is something I struggle to see in RaynerFoxy said:
She doesn't accumulate enemies within the party, and that is a very useful skill indeed. She is a loyalist to the leadership, standing by Corbyn when few others in the PLP would, and even not directly criticising Starmer when he was trying to sack her after Hartlepool.Roger said:
I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
She was a successful union negotiator, and that shows. Called in for a sacking by SKS, but leaving the room with a better portfolio.
Never confuse a lack of formal education with a lack of intelligence.
1 -
There are two reactions to by elections, complacency and panic, and usually each is an overreaction. Thats why they are fun.Philip_Thompson said:
Oh give over.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic
It's a by election.4 -
The morning when one commenter called Hartlepool peak Boris.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
As so many Tories on here didn't say the morning after Hartlepool.Philip_Thompson said:
Oh give over.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic
It's a by election.
80 - 82 - 80.0 -
Yes, could well have happened if Corbyn hadn’t been leader of the Labour Party.algarkirk said:
Having made a modest few bob on this one (a vanishingly rare occurrence, being the world's worst predictor) I offer this thought: At no point was there any real publicly available data as to how this election was going, although it was always obvious that it was Con v LD. No polling. Little worthwhile press coverage. Nothing LDs say can be relied on. So on the data available, given the LDs track record in by elections and the entitled, remainery, elite nature of the constituency, it was in truth an even money bet between the two. So I backed the LDs given the odds, like everyone else not having a clue which would win.Richard_Tyndall said:
True but there was at least an acceptance that it was both possible and more likely than the PB talking heads were implying.Stocky said:
Good post but OGH, and others, were not saying this was a likely result; rather that the probability of a LD win was considerably higher than the odds implied.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
One other thought: C & A are too late. Their big chance fell in 2019 when urban and southern Remainland could have voted in a GE to Remain they conspicuously didn't. Lab, LD, Green and SNP had a huge opportunity to take the matter back into their hands. Politicians and voters screwed up big time and there is no going back.3 -
There certainly was all over Surrey - in my area the Tories collapsed from 7 to 2 County seats last month after two years of LD-Lab-Green alliance at Borough level, and simklar results were seen across much of the county.Fishing said:
Not just the general - even in the locals last month there was very little appetite for it.tlg86 said:Wow, quite the win for the yellows that. Well done to Mike and everyone else who backed them.
I’m not sure it changes too much - Tory MPs in the commuter belt know that the LDs are clearly a threat. The problem for the LDs is that when we get to the GE, voters will know that a vote for the LDs is a vote for a coalition with Labour and the SNP. And when it comes to it, I’m not sure the Cheshams, Guildfords, and Winchesters have it in them.0 -
I'm trying to picture a debauched weekend in Blackpool.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.
Sex on the big dipper?0 -
Look on the bright side, you've not made a loss.Pulpstar said:I'm pretty disgusted at myself for only winning 80 quid here
0 -
Who would have thought the Lib Dems to poll 45%-50% bet would be a loser on the UPSIDE?
3 -
John Rentoul:
It is bad news for the Conservatives, but it could be even worse for Labour. The Liberal Democrat by-election victory in Chesham and Amersham reflects the realignment of British politics, as the Conservatives gain support in northern working-class Leave areas – which means they are vulnerable in southern middle-class Remainland. But while it is Labour that loses out in places such as Hartlepool, the main opposition party doesn’t gain in places such as Chesham and Amersham.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lib-dems-by-election-victory-b1868330.html1 -
Most of us can remember big byelection upsets that didn't amount to much in the long term but I think this does give the LDs a chance to reshape the landscape.
The strategy of an informal anti-Tory alliance with Labour would be a mistake. Anti-Tory voters in the south will know what to do in any case. LDs need to make it clear that they wouldn't be pushed into propping up a minority Labour government with the support of the SNP ("coalition of chaos"). The LDs need to attack Labour with about one third of their messaging as intolerant, too woke and extremist. They have a window to displace Labour. What most commentators proposing cooperation between LDs and Labour are missing is that Labour are in a death spiral (even if they retain the seat today). The leader isn't the problem. Rather it is the policies and the membership and much of the parliamentary party. If the LDs position themselves as a Liberal (old sense) left of centre party they can seize the moment.1 -
I'm staying in one of the suites at The Imperial Hotel, chances are one of the party leaders like Thatcher, Major, Blair, Wilson, Callaghan, Kinnock, or Foot had sex in that suite and leave it at that.Roger said:
I'm trying to picture a debauched weekend in Blackpool.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.
Sex on the big dipper?1 -
I think that labour have a problem in general with male voters - rightly or wrongly Jess Phillips is not going to help with that.Roger said:
That's all true. Maybe it's just having various templates of what a Prime Minister looks/sounds like and she doesn't fit any of them. I'd prefer Jess Phillips. She's got fire and a personality which is something I struggle to see in RaynerFoxy said:
She doesn't accumulate enemies within the party, and that is a very useful skill indeed. She is a loyalist to the leadership, standing by Corbyn when few others in the PLP would, and even not directly criticising Starmer when he was trying to sack her after Hartlepool.Roger said:
I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
She was a successful union negotiator, and that shows. Called in for a sacking by SKS, but leaving the room with a better portfolio.
Never confuse a lack of formal education with a lack of intelligence.0 -
The graphs are trumped to fuck by the what sort of air some Italians put in their car tyres dissertations, to be fair.Dura_Ace said:
Banging on about lockdown just isn't enough to excite the caravan dwelling loons in fag burned cardigans that are their target audience. Immigration would have been more fertile ground for them.contrarian said:
It has to be said it is a disappointing result for Reform. Alnost no cut through right now.
Maybe when conservative voters are unhappy, they simply do not vote.
It is refereshing to have some proper politics to discuss instead of those endless fucking graphs being dissected by TK Maxx epidemiologists.1 -
Go back to your constituency and prepare for reality.HYUFD said:
The LDs got a 25% swing last night in a seat which voted 45% for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Even in the South East, 51% went for Brexit. The majority of South Eastern seats are pro-Brexit.HYUFD said:
True but those were more Leave areas of the South (excluding say St Albans or Cambridge and Bristol), if you are a Tory MP in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire or Hampshire (or indeed Tunbridge Wells) this morning which were more Remain and where the LDs are your main opponents however you would be in panic mode this morningSean_F said:
The Tories have a hammer lock over most of the South West, Kent, Essex, East Anglia, Hertfordshire, so they are nowhere close to losing the South. Where the Lib Dems have an opening is in some commuter-belt constituencies.HYUFD said:
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the North and Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and the inner cities and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s
Ultimately, though, the impact of Brexit will fade. The Conservatives need to keep their nerve on housebuilding, even if it alienates some existing homeowners. In the long run, people who own their own homes are likely to vote Conservative, and those who don't won't.
If that swing was repeated in 2024 every single Tory Remain seat in the South would go LD and indeed every southern Tory Seat which voted for Brexit by less than 60% would also be at risk of going LD.
Housebuilding just adds to that shift to the LDs further, these are not seats at risk of going Labour because too many rent (that is more a London Tories problem), these are seats still majority owner occupier being pushed LD because of fury at proposed developments in the greenbelt1 -
This is why Boris Johnson is so bad, particularly during a pandemic.
Thousands of VIPs will be allowed into England without the need to quarantine under plans to stop the final of the European Championship being moved from Wembley to Budapest, The Times can reveal.
Ministers are discussing a proposal to exempt Uefa and Fifa officials, politicians, sponsors and broadcasters from having to self-isolate on arrival despite concerns that this could lead to an increase in coronavirus infections and provoke a backlash from the public.
About 2,500 designated VIPs attending games at Wembley would not have to abide by the quarantine restrictions imposed on ordinary travellers. They would be allowed to attend matches at Wembley during the knockout phase of the tournament as well as training sessions and meetings with the UK government.
Ministers are concerned that if they do not relax the rules the semi-finals and final will be moved to Hungary, which will have no border restrictions for travel within the Schengen zone from next week and would host the games with full stadiums.
Cabinet ministers are understood to have acknowledged that amending the law on border restrictions for VIPs could cause controversy at a time when millions of Britons are unable to take holidays abroad.
There have also been talks within government on the public health risks and the potential for exempted travellers to contract the Delta, or Indian, variant in Britain.
Boris Johnson is said to be drawn to the plans on the grounds that they could boost a joint Home Nations bid for the 2030 World Cup. The proposed exemptions would allow the prime minister to meet senior figures from Uefa, the sport’s governing body in Europe, in person as he attempts to secure their backing for the first major international tournament held entirely on British soil since 1996.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uefa-threat-euro-2020-final-quaranting-hungary-budapest-0f3jhc99v0 -
Reading the comments from a lib dem activist, education was also a factor.
Some people pay premiums to live in an area where there are still Grammar schools and they were incensed with closures and disruption apparently.
Johnson's decision to close down schools in January was a factor?
We should never let any government close down our schools again.1 -
Batley & Spen
Conservative 1.45 or 4/9
Labour 5/2 Hills and Betway (only 3 aka 2/1 on Betfair)
Workers Party of George Galloway 1000 -
Why is Hartlepool a disaster for Labour and yet this by-election is not a disaster for the Tories?
I’ve been saying for months the Tories are in trouble in the South. It was always going to be the case that abandoning the former Tory south and chasing the North was going to result in losses. It’s an electoral strategy that so far has worked well for the Tories - but how much of the Southern retention was due to Corbyn?
What this shows is that Labour voters are prepared to vote tactically once again as they have in the past. Will the same occur in Labour targets going forward?1 -
You can afford a lot of cosplayers now...TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm staying in one of the suites at The Imperial Hotel, chances are one of the party leaders like Thatcher, Major, Blair, Wilson, Callaghan, Kinnock, or Foot had sex in that suite and leave it at that.Roger said:
I'm trying to picture a debauched weekend in Blackpool.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.
Sex on the big dipper?2 -
My referral from my GP to the local hosp was in, I think, April. This is the EN&T assessment (preceded by a mandatory COVID test at 8.25am on Sunday !). Then it will be for the op if thought necessary.Foxy said:
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth (or nose!).MattW said:Off topic:
I've just received a surprisingly quick response to an NHS referral for a non-urgent condition (nasal polyp).
I wonder if some extra-caution wrt unlocking is being exercised to keep NHS services ramping back more quickly without disruption, and how heavily non-Covid deaths are weighing in the balance?
But I have no numbers.
@Foxy ?
My department still has loads of routine appointments from referrals sent in August that we haven't given dates to.
With social distancing and PPE, each week we dig our hole a bit deeper.
Perhaps as a Covid Extremely Vulnerable there is some priority (?), or they are just in a better position to split treatments; they were going fairly full stream last summer here - when I had my lukemia treatment teh car park was way fuller than pre-Covid.
But anyway - all praise to Sherwood Hospitals Trust on the last 15 months from my POV.0 -
If I were Johnson I would reroute HS2 straight through the villages and build some fuck off big social housing estates there. Pour encourager les autresNorthCadboll said:Morning all. No doubt the PB Europhiles and LibDems wil be hailing the end of the Conservative Government. This result is a good mid-term win for the LibDems but was fairly common in Margaret Thatchers mid-terms. Remember Shirley Williams and Crosby overturning something like a 19,000 majority. She lost the seat back to the Tories. Incidentally how does this seat do in the boundary changes?
I hope all the happy remainers who voted LibDem yesterday ask their shiny new LibDem MP what good she is doing as the HS2 bulldozers go straight through their villages. No doubt Ed Davey will follow the road of his predecessors and be gone the day after the next General Election.1 -
The Tories winning but the sitting PM losing his deal would be both amusing and an interesting test of convention. Would the Tories find a safe seat and force someone to resign (yet even those are risky if voters think you are taking the piss), would a PM be named from the MPs, only to change quickly after a leadership contest.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Which might mean the Honourable Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip will not stand again and risk defeat, meaning a later general election and/or an earlier retirement from Number 10.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.0 -
It is a disaster for the tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:Why is Hartlepool a disaster for Labour and yet this by-election is not a disaster for the Tories?
I’ve been saying for months the Tories are in trouble in the South. It was always going to be the case that abandoning the former Tory south and chasing the North was going to result in losses. It’s an electoral strategy that so far has worked well for the Tories - but how much of the Southern retention was due to Corbyn?
What this shows is that Labour voters are prepared to vote tactically once again as they have in the past. Will the same occur in Labour targets going forward?2 -
Much as I am enjoying a rare bit of positive election news, this was only a by-election.
Very welcome publicity boost and filip for the LDs though. It will be a long road back from the wipeout of 2015, but that seems like ancient history now.1 -
On the last point: would that have been scrapped on 21st June if it had gone ahead?Foxy said:
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth (or nose!).MattW said:Off topic:
I've just received a surprisingly quick response to an NHS referral for a non-urgent condition (nasal polyp).
I wonder if some extra-caution wrt unlocking is being exercised to keep NHS services ramping back more quickly without disruption, and how heavily non-Covid deaths are weighing in the balance?
But I have no numbers.
@Foxy ?
My department still has loads of routine appointments from referrals sent in August that we haven't given dates to.
With social distancing and PPE, each week we dig our hole a bit deeper.
0 -
Spurs really are a comedy club.
Tottenham will not be appointing Gennaro Gattuso as manager
Tottenham’s protracted search for a new manager will continue after the north London club decided against appointing Gennaro Gattuso to the vacant position, The Athletic can reveal.
The Italian emerged as a potential option for Spurs yesterday alongside Paulo Fonseca, with whom talks are believed to have broken down.
Earlier in the day, Gattuso surprisingly departed Fiorentina after only 23 days at the helm.
What happened on Thursday?
Conversations took place between Tottenham and the 43-year-old former AC Milan and Napoli manager — as they have done with numerous contenders — however Gattuso will not be getting the job.
There was a huge backlash from Spurs fans after reports that Gattuso was the leading candidate.
Historic comments allegedly made by the ex-Italy midfielder about the role of women in football, same-sex marriage and racism were repeatedly shared by Tottenham supporters on social media, accompanied by the hashtag #NoToGattuso, which was trending in the United Kingdom last night.
https://theathletic.com/news/tottenham-gattuso-fonseca-next-manager/gMDVgY6icgRu0 -
Yes, the party should be winning it anyway, but he can frame it as another part of the wheels coming off the bojo bus as well as restoring his own fortunes.CarlottaVance said:Rightly or wrongly political coverage is built on narratives. Chesham looks like changing the mood a bit. Great result for the Lib Dems first and foremost but Batley & Spen now provides Starmer with an opportunity to reset the narrative on his leadership too. But can he take it?
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1405792606219550720?s=20
All down to Palestine, for some reason.0 -
I'm on holiday with a nanny-block in place, and did not bother circumventing it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Look on the bright side, you've not made a loss.Pulpstar said:I'm pretty disgusted at myself for only winning 80 quid here
0 -
Because last time the PM created a loophole in restrictions so that he could try and do a meet'n'greet went REALLY WELL, didn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:This is why Boris Johnson is so bad, particularly during a pandemic.
Thousands of VIPs will be allowed into England without the need to quarantine under plans to stop the final of the European Championship being moved from Wembley to Budapest, The Times can reveal.
Ministers are discussing a proposal to exempt Uefa and Fifa officials, politicians, sponsors and broadcasters from having to self-isolate on arrival despite concerns that this could lead to an increase in coronavirus infections and provoke a backlash from the public.
About 2,500 designated VIPs attending games at Wembley would not have to abide by the quarantine restrictions imposed on ordinary travellers. They would be allowed to attend matches at Wembley during the knockout phase of the tournament as well as training sessions and meetings with the UK government.
Ministers are concerned that if they do not relax the rules the semi-finals and final will be moved to Hungary, which will have no border restrictions for travel within the Schengen zone from next week and would host the games with full stadiums.
Cabinet ministers are understood to have acknowledged that amending the law on border restrictions for VIPs could cause controversy at a time when millions of Britons are unable to take holidays abroad.
There have also been talks within government on the public health risks and the potential for exempted travellers to contract the Delta, or Indian, variant in Britain.
Boris Johnson is said to be drawn to the plans on the grounds that they could boost a joint Home Nations bid for the 2030 World Cup. The proposed exemptions would allow the prime minister to meet senior figures from Uefa, the sport’s governing body in Europe, in person as he attempts to secure their backing for the first major international tournament held entirely on British soil since 1996.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uefa-threat-euro-2020-final-quaranting-hungary-budapest-0f3jhc99v1 -
The scale of the win is helpful in countering 'just a by election' realism. Soin would happen with a tight win too, but it looks more credible with a result like this, since even activists aren't fools and know a very tight result probably presage nothing.Foxy said:Much as I am enjoying a rare bit of positive election news, this was only a by-election.
Very welcome publicity boost and filip for the LDs though. It will be a long road back from the wipeout of 2015, but that seems like ancient history now.0 -
I thought that Blackpool was synonymous with debauchery. Indeed main purpose of visiting.Roger said:
I'm trying to picture a debauched weekend in Blackpool.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.
Sex on the big dipper?4 -
Spartan If, there. The next general election will not see the Lib Dem vote share rise by 30%, nor the Conservative vote share fall by 19%.HYUFD said:
The LDs got a 25% swing last night in a seat which voted 45% for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Even in the South East, 51% went for Brexit. The majority of South Eastern seats are pro-Brexit.HYUFD said:
True but those were more Leave areas of the South (excluding say St Albans or Cambridge and Bristol), if you are a Tory MP in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire or Hampshire (or indeed Tunbridge Wells) this morning which were more Remain and where the LDs are your main opponents however you would be in panic mode this morningSean_F said:
The Tories have a hammer lock over most of the South West, Kent, Essex, East Anglia, Hertfordshire, so they are nowhere close to losing the South. Where the Lib Dems have an opening is in some commuter-belt constituencies.HYUFD said:
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the North and Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and the inner cities and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s
Ultimately, though, the impact of Brexit will fade. The Conservatives need to keep their nerve on housebuilding, even if it alienates some existing homeowners. In the long run, people who own their own homes are likely to vote Conservative, and those who don't won't.
If that swing was repeated in 2024 every single Tory Remain seat in the South would go LD and indeed every southern Tory Seat which voted for Brexit by less than 60% would also be at risk of going LD.
Housebuilding just adds to that shift to the LDs further, these are not seats at risk of going Labour because too many rent (that is more a London Tories problem), these are seats still majority owner occupier being pushed LD because of fury at proposed developments in the greenbelt1 -
I am not sure that is necessarily the case with the changeing demographic and the potential economic fallout of Covid and Brexit coming down the line.. We have inflation, quality job losses (but not necessarily high unemployment) and house price deflation on the way.Pulpstar said:I think the seat is a Tory hold at the next GE still
Could be a BlueWall hold!
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government0 -
Because governements frequently lose seats in by-elections in mid-term, but oppositions rarely do.CorrectHorseBattery said:Why is Hartlepool a disaster for Labour and yet this by-election is not a disaster for the Tories?
?3 -
Yet the local elections weren't a disaster for the Conservatives in the South.CorrectHorseBattery said:Why is Hartlepool a disaster for Labour and yet this by-election is not a disaster for the Tories?
I’ve been saying for months the Tories are in trouble in the South. It was always going to be the case that abandoning the former Tory south and chasing the North was going to result in losses. It’s an electoral strategy that so far has worked well for the Tories - but how much of the Southern retention was due to Corbyn?
What this shows is that Labour voters are prepared to vote tactically once again as they have in the past. Will the same occur in Labour targets going forward?
Nor do the opinion polls point to that.
That leaves a byelection and they've happened before and will happen again.
So why is this any different to other byelections ?
Now there maybe long term issues for the Conservatives in the South, in particular connected with housing.
But a 5% Conservative vote decrease in the South but a 5% increase in the Conservative vote in the North makes the Conservative vote overall more efficient.1 -
No. We were told a week before by NHS England that whatever else changed SD and PPE measures would not be changing in healthcare for the foreseeable. It is a major drag on productivity.rottenborough said:
On the last point: would that have been scrapped on 21st June if it had gone ahead?Foxy said:
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth (or nose!).MattW said:Off topic:
I've just received a surprisingly quick response to an NHS referral for a non-urgent condition (nasal polyp).
I wonder if some extra-caution wrt unlocking is being exercised to keep NHS services ramping back more quickly without disruption, and how heavily non-Covid deaths are weighing in the balance?
But I have no numbers.
@Foxy ?
My department still has loads of routine appointments from referrals sent in August that we haven't given dates to.
With social distancing and PPE, each week we dig our hole a bit deeper.0 -
The only purpose surely?Foxy said:
I thought that Blackpool was synonymous with debauchery. Indeed main purpose of visiting.Roger said:
I'm trying to picture a debauched weekend in Blackpool.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.
Sex on the big dipper?1 -
I have not personally asked each of them but it is highly likely that those Cons voters who disapprove of the Cons' pandemic handling registered their vote via the LDs.
Cons voters of the type in C&A are not typically the sort who would vote for a protest party rather than an established one.0 -
I am enjoying the complete 180 of the Spectator who were absolutely sure of a Tory win.
And Hodges trying to explain how this result is different to Hartlepool because reasons0 -
Who knows, Brooks Newmark might even have texted photos of his genitalia from that very suite?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm staying in one of the suites at The Imperial Hotel, chances are one of the party leaders like Thatcher, Major, Blair, Wilson, Callaghan, Kinnock, or Foot had sex in that suite and leave it at that.Roger said:
I'm trying to picture a debauched weekend in Blackpool.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.
Sex on the big dipper?
2 -
Which would see an even bigger swing to the LDs in the South East, not a good idea.beentheredonethat said:
If I were Johnson I would reroute HS2 straight through the villages and build some fuck off big social housing estates there. Pour encourager les autresNorthCadboll said:Morning all. No doubt the PB Europhiles and LibDems wil be hailing the end of the Conservative Government. This result is a good mid-term win for the LibDems but was fairly common in Margaret Thatchers mid-terms. Remember Shirley Williams and Crosby overturning something like a 19,000 majority. She lost the seat back to the Tories. Incidentally how does this seat do in the boundary changes?
I hope all the happy remainers who voted LibDem yesterday ask their shiny new LibDem MP what good she is doing as the HS2 bulldozers go straight through their villages. No doubt Ed Davey will follow the road of his predecessors and be gone the day after the next General Election.
This result shows the Tories should focus on building new infrastructure in the North and new houses to own in majority rent London. They should cut back on the number of proposed new developments in the still majority owner occupier South and especially cut back on any new developments in the greenbelt in the Home Counties.0 -
It was 11 years between me voting Lib Dem for the first time and the second and then a further 11 years before I did so again so this chimes with me.TheScreamingEagles said:Legendary modesty klaxon time, ditto for OGH as well.
The winnings will make this weekend in Blackpool even more memorable/debauched.
My big takeaway here.
The Labour voters have finally forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
The Labour vote cratering here for the greater good is similar to the Newbury and Christchurch in 1993 when Labour polled 2% and 2.7%.
Labour did alright in the next general election.
I'd be shitting bricks if I were Raab, Redwood, et al.
Henley could be the mother of all results at the GE.
Oops, I meant Uxbridge.1 -
They appear to have a reserve day (good job, as today looks terrible).alex_ said:So what does the weather in London combined with a big England-Scotland match mean for Covid infection rates in the Capital?
And on a minor point - World Test final could be a bit of a damp squib...0
