Sorry to the Tory MP who told me a month ago they would lose Chesham and Amersham - and I thought ‘I can’t put that in - it’s only my second column. I’ll look insane’
The government has been clear that its priority is levelling up the north. Walking around parliament, you can feel the mission in action. “Red wall” MPs are buoyant, fresh with reports of their most recent meeting with a minister to discuss an extended train line here, a new hospital there. Meanwhile, their southern colleagues feel left out in the cold. Many fret that some of the rhetoric that accompanies the project is whittling away their majorities: rhetoric they variously describe as “anti-graduate”, “anti-globalist” and “anti-metropolitan”. They worry that the Conservative Party is losing something fundamental to its character. As one home counties MP put it to me: “There is something very strange about a centre-right party that cannot count on the votes of affluent young professionals.”
Nonetheless, this phenomenon is about to have a big impact on British politics. Tory MPs can see it happening, and they are worried. This isn’t only about holding on to their jobs. Just as the loss of the old mining towns broke the hearts of many Labour MPs, for veteran Tories the threat to these seats shakes the very foundations of the party they joined. The more fearful they become, the more they will start to push back against Boris Johnson’s government. And when they do, the uneasy peace that has settled in the Conservative Party over recent weeks will explode into conflict once more.
Hmm. It depends what they mean by "affluent young professionals".
If they're working in the City in financial services, sure. If they're working in the public or 3rd sector, arts or the media, then absolutely not.
Also, there's a direct conflict between some of their proposals to make housing more affordable for young people and those who actually vote - and we've just seen how powerful that can be in C&A.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.
Snap and yes quite right.
The boundary changes will make this more pertinent. For example, Exeter is now more marginal. Remember until 1997 it was Conservative until Ben Bradshaw's stunning victory. He has a huge personal vote from people who might otherwise vote blue too and he's not going to stick around for ever. Last time the LibDems fought him hard which, in the context of the Remain vs Brexit vote, was quite ridiculous.
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
What has been forgotten in the tories' recent fleg strewn auto da fé is that there are still millions of people and therefore voters who fucking hate Brexit. Not even so much the actuality of it but the reactionary, intellectually impoverished and essentially eugenicist worldview it typifies.
Let me disavow you of something straight away: this by-election isn't about Brexit.
See my post on confirmation bias.
Yes and no. Not dissatisfaction with Brexit specifically, but Brexit is part of the Tories’ shift away from the educated middle classes in search of its new constituency, and that new constituency isn’t C & A.
I'd say if Brexit was your chief concern you'd have been amongst the 25k that voted for Labour, LD or the Greens at the 2019 election, no? And I note the LDs got only 15k of that.
Sarah Greens grand vote total is less than that at 21k.
It looks to me like all progressives rallied around her, and turned out, whilst Conservatives sat at home. If they'd all turned out at GE levels it would have been (by my reckoning) very marginal.
The key point is this: if you were virulently anti-Brexit (and there's definitely c.25% of the population like that) you were already voting Lib Dem.
That linked Times article, from which I copied some extracts above, says it very clearly
I backed the Conservatives for a tenner yesterday and promptly told the board because my "outside of Scotland" betting has a shocking record to give people a chance to flee.
There are some good posts on here and the one about hard left and hard right is apposite.
I think it's worth remembering that Tony Blair won several landslides on the back of economic prosperity and social liberalism.
The 1992-7 Major government contained a lot of the same nastiness that I'm seeing re-emerge in the current tory party and that didn't end well for them.
And one other last point. Someone posted on here a while back that we shouldn't judge Johnson's poll leads during a pandemic crisis. These are extraordinary times but they will abate. 2024 is a long way off still and we should be pandemic free by then.
I'm just wondering whether to do the unthinkable and bet against a tory win.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Did LP voters in C&A lend their votes to the yellows as a one off? That's the question.
If the LP had been second placed in the 2019 GE in that seat would the reverse have happened - i.e. would LibDem voters have lent their votes to the LP?
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Like Corbyn in 2019. He got the fewest number of Parliamentary votes in any election since 1935
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
Managed to get back to sleep for a couple of hours and woke up with the same smile. I got hold of a pair of Wimbledon tickets yesterday too so it was a good day.
One of the reasons the LibDems did so relatively poorly in 2019 was I'm afraid Jo Swinson. There's no reason to be overly vindictive (leave that to Nicola Sturgeon) but Jo really wasn't up to it. And her equivalent of 'go back and prepare for Government' didn't go down well.
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
They've done well They did well on vaccines. There are so many other things which aren't.
I never saw the appeal of Jo Swinson either.
For the record, I don't see the appeal of Layla or Wera either. Sarah Olney seems boring and normal. I don't know who Munira is.
There is exactly one LibDem MP with half an ounce of charisma: Daisy Cooper. And I have exactly zero idea what her political views are.
I would hate to think the LDs did well partly because their leader is a terribly nice bloke in the David Laws can't believe he's not actually a Tory kind of way.
Sorry to the Tory MP who told me a month ago they would lose Chesham and Amersham - and I thought ‘I can’t put that in - it’s only my second column. I’ll look insane’
The government has been clear that its priority is levelling up the north. Walking around parliament, you can feel the mission in action. “Red wall” MPs are buoyant, fresh with reports of their most recent meeting with a minister to discuss an extended train line here, a new hospital there. Meanwhile, their southern colleagues feel left out in the cold. Many fret that some of the rhetoric that accompanies the project is whittling away their majorities: rhetoric they variously describe as “anti-graduate”, “anti-globalist” and “anti-metropolitan”. They worry that the Conservative Party is losing something fundamental to its character. As one home counties MP put it to me: “There is something very strange about a centre-right party that cannot count on the votes of affluent young professionals.”
Nonetheless, this phenomenon is about to have a big impact on British politics. Tory MPs can see it happening, and they are worried. This isn’t only about holding on to their jobs. Just as the loss of the old mining towns broke the hearts of many Labour MPs, for veteran Tories the threat to these seats shakes the very foundations of the party they joined. The more fearful they become, the more they will start to push back against Boris Johnson’s government. And when they do, the uneasy peace that has settled in the Conservative Party over recent weeks will explode into conflict once more.
Hmm. It depends what they mean by "affluent young professionals".
If they're working in the City in financial services, sure. If they're working in the public or 3rd sector, arts or the media, then absolutely not.
Also, there's a direct conflict between some of their proposals to make housing more affordable for young people and those who actually vote - and we've just seen how powerful that can be in C&A.
The biggest shift is that, when I first became politically active, you could strongly correlate education with voting Conservative. Things are now moving toward precisely the opposite.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
I’m neither. You, on the other hand, clearly are, and quite a nasty one. I’m still very alarmed at some of the truly bizarre things you said last night, which if you genuinely were working in child protection - which you clearly don’t - would cost you your job if brought to the attention of your boss.
Here is the question. In simple language.
Where are the seats that Labour do not hold where they could attract significant number of Lib Dem votes to win the seats?
The list offered doesn’t really apply because Labour already holds most of the seats. They can’t win more in Bristol or Exeter, for example.
We’ve added Worthing to the list. Where else?
Edit - this is important because, if there are several, there are clearly some value bets to look at.
Brain imaging before and after COVID-19 in UK Biobank https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1 There is strong evidence for brain-related pathologies in COVID-19, some of which could be a consequence of viral neurotropism. The vast majority of brain imaging studies so far have focused on qualitative, gross pathology of moderate to severe cases, often carried out on hospitalised patients. It remains unknown however whether the impact of COVID-19 can be detected in milder cases, in a quantitative and automated manner, and whether this can reveal a possible mechanism for the spread of the disease. UK Biobank scanned over 40,000 participants before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to invite back in 2021 hundreds of previously-imaged participants for a second imaging visit. Here, we studied the effects of the disease in the brain using multimodal data from 782 participants from the UK Biobank COVID-19 re-imaging study, with 394 participants having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between their two scans. We used structural and functional brain scans from before and after infection, to compare longitudinal brain changes between these 394 COVID-19 patients and 388 controls who were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and interval between scans. We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula. When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole. We further compared COVID-19 patients who had been hospitalised (n=15) with those who had not (n=379), and while results were not significant, we found comparatively similar findings to the COVID-19 vs control group comparison, with, in addition, a greater loss of grey matter in the cingulate cortex, central nucleus of the amygdala and hippocampal cornu ammonis (all |Z| > 3). Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system. Unlike in post hoc disease studies, the availability of pre-infection imaging data helps avoid the danger of pre-existing risk factors or clinical conditions being mis-interpreted as disease effects. Since a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system might be via the olfactory mucosa and the olfactory bulb, these brain imaging results might be the in vivo hallmark of the spread of the disease (or the virus itself) via olfactory and gustatory pathways.
A really interesting study, and quite alarming in its long term implications.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
The point is that this is one of many seats that Labour can never win.
On the island, we’re in a similar position, except trapped by Labour having scored a clear second place last time. Yet there are no circumstances in which Labour can ever win this seat. And their harping on about coming second simply puts a mountain in front of those parties who, in unlikely but not impossible circumstances, might win it.
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
What has been forgotten in the tories' recent fleg strewn auto da fé is that there are still millions of people and therefore voters who fucking hate Brexit. Not even so much the actuality of it but the reactionary, intellectually impoverished and essentially eugenicist worldview it typifies.
Let me disavow you of something straight away: this by-election isn't about Brexit.
See my post on confirmation bias.
Yes and no. Not dissatisfaction with Brexit specifically, but Brexit is part of the Tories’ shift away from the educated middle classes in search of its new constituency, and that new constituency isn’t C & A.
I'd say if Brexit was your chief concern you'd have been amongst the 25k that voted for Labour, LD or the Greens at the 2019 election, no? And I note the LDs got only 15k of that.
Sarah Greens grand vote total is less than that at 21k.
It looks to me like all progressives rallied around her, and turned out, whilst Conservatives sat at home. If they'd all turned out at GE levels it would have been (by my reckoning) very marginal.
The key point is this: if you were virulently anti-Brexit (and there's definitely c.25% of the population like that) you were already voting Lib Dem.
That linked Times article, from which I copied some extracts above, says it very clearly
Yes, it's a good article.
Some core cost of living stuff there. Basically, the Tories need to end the triple lock now (don't care about the manifesto: blame it on Covid.. whatever; they've had a great 10 years) and flip the funding to housing, childcare, and infrastructure improvements.
By the time of the next election the oldies will have got over it, and maybe a few more of working age (particularly in their 30s) will consider Tory.
Sorry to the Tory MP who told me a month ago they would lose Chesham and Amersham - and I thought ‘I can’t put that in - it’s only my second column. I’ll look insane’
The government has been clear that its priority is levelling up the north. Walking around parliament, you can feel the mission in action. “Red wall” MPs are buoyant, fresh with reports of their most recent meeting with a minister to discuss an extended train line here, a new hospital there. Meanwhile, their southern colleagues feel left out in the cold. Many fret that some of the rhetoric that accompanies the project is whittling away their majorities: rhetoric they variously describe as “anti-graduate”, “anti-globalist” and “anti-metropolitan”. They worry that the Conservative Party is losing something fundamental to its character. As one home counties MP put it to me: “There is something very strange about a centre-right party that cannot count on the votes of affluent young professionals.”
Nonetheless, this phenomenon is about to have a big impact on British politics. Tory MPs can see it happening, and they are worried. This isn’t only about holding on to their jobs. Just as the loss of the old mining towns broke the hearts of many Labour MPs, for veteran Tories the threat to these seats shakes the very foundations of the party they joined. The more fearful they become, the more they will start to push back against Boris Johnson’s government. And when they do, the uneasy peace that has settled in the Conservative Party over recent weeks will explode into conflict once more.
Hmm. It depends what they mean by "affluent young professionals".
If they're working in the City in financial services, sure. If they're working in the public or 3rd sector, arts or the media, then absolutely not.
Also, there's a direct conflict between some of their proposals to make housing more affordable for young people and those who actually vote - and we've just seen how powerful that can be in C&A.
The biggest shift is that, when I first became politically active, you could strongly correlate education with voting Conservative. Things are now moving toward precisely the opposite.
In the States you have Republican strategists praising their decline in educational standards as it helps their future vote! Let's hope we don't get to that level over here.
Brain imaging before and after COVID-19 in UK Biobank https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1 There is strong evidence for brain-related pathologies in COVID-19, some of which could be a consequence of viral neurotropism. The vast majority of brain imaging studies so far have focused on qualitative, gross pathology of moderate to severe cases, often carried out on hospitalised patients. It remains unknown however whether the impact of COVID-19 can be detected in milder cases, in a quantitative and automated manner, and whether this can reveal a possible mechanism for the spread of the disease. UK Biobank scanned over 40,000 participants before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to invite back in 2021 hundreds of previously-imaged participants for a second imaging visit. Here, we studied the effects of the disease in the brain using multimodal data from 782 participants from the UK Biobank COVID-19 re-imaging study, with 394 participants having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between their two scans. We used structural and functional brain scans from before and after infection, to compare longitudinal brain changes between these 394 COVID-19 patients and 388 controls who were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and interval between scans. We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula. When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole. We further compared COVID-19 patients who had been hospitalised (n=15) with those who had not (n=379), and while results were not significant, we found comparatively similar findings to the COVID-19 vs control group comparison, with, in addition, a greater loss of grey matter in the cingulate cortex, central nucleus of the amygdala and hippocampal cornu ammonis (all |Z| > 3). Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system. Unlike in post hoc disease studies, the availability of pre-infection imaging data helps avoid the danger of pre-existing risk factors or clinical conditions being mis-interpreted as disease effects. Since a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system might be via the olfactory mucosa and the olfactory bulb, these brain imaging results might be the in vivo hallmark of the spread of the disease (or the virus itself) via olfactory and gustatory pathways.
A really interesting study, and quite alarming in its long term implications.
Get vaccinated guys...
Yes. It's unbelievable that some are refraining. Those with religious objections are deluded anyway. But the others? Good grief, does a dislike of the state trump one's own welfare? Obviously so.
Amazing result - thought we'd take it bit not by 8k. What does it mean? A few possibilities: 1. Voters like good governance. You can only run government as a circus that is all clowns for so long before people think it's a joke 2. This is exactly the kind of thing we were trying to do in 2019. Had Labour not been such arrogant wazzocks a decent number of seats would have gone LD in the south 3. Beware voters being disappointed. Tories in C&A unhappy with planning. I read upset and outrage in Teesside where new blue seats have been promised the moon on a stick and are getting rail service cuts. Blue wall Tories expect tangible gains, they're getting very little and patronised to boot.
Part 2 is Batley and Spen. It's not a typical red wall seat. It sounds like Labour activists are getting a beating on the doorstep which would point to another Tory gain.
Except for the Joker in the field - Galloway. He's done it before, he knows which time to play to pied piper away with Labour voters, it's a similar demographic to his past Bradford triumph...
This is such good news. Johnson needed a kick up the arse whatever your politics. Him and his useless cabinet have been cruising without threat or opposition for far too long.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.
Snap and yes quite right.
The boundary changes will make this more pertinent. For example, Exeter is now more marginal. Remember until 1997 it was Conservative until Ben Bradshaw's stunning victory. He has a huge personal vote from people who might otherwise vote blue too and he's not going to stick around for ever. Last time the LibDems fought him hard which, in the context of the Remain vs Brexit vote, was quite ridiculous.
Um. Last time the LibDems fought Ben so hard they didn't actually stand. TBH everything else you said about Exeter is very doubtful too.
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.
What Labour doesn’t, yet, understand is that the reciprocity won’t come in terms of votes or in terms of seats, but from being the largest party in the first non-Tory government for what by then will have been a long time. We don’t get there until Labour comes to terms with not being able to win a majority; whatever people say about SKS, you can’t fault him for not seeing the bigger picture and focusing on bringing this reality home to his party.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Tactical voting in Shire seats for the LDs was a key part of 1997. It will be a key part of defeating the Tories, which cannot be won on university seats alone.
To all those who have been saying there is no point in the Lib Dems, your boys took a hell of a beating!
My post of 20 May: "Anyone think LibDems at 18 in Chesham and Amersham is a bit big?".
I think I beat Mike to it but happy to be corrected.
I laid CP at 1.06 20 May. Then further bets later. Took a bit of profit yesterday (darn it) but coffers two grand up this morning. Yeah.
Now I just need a holiday to spend it on.
There was a header tipping this on the 10 May!
Oh bum - I thought header was later.
I got on at 20 on 22nd May. Can't remember whether I did it following a tip on here or just out of small hope Johnson would finally get some sort of kicking.
If I did it over a tip: then I thank you @Stocky and others.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.
Snap and yes quite right.
The boundary changes will make this more pertinent. For example, Exeter is now more marginal. Remember until 1997 it was Conservative until Ben Bradshaw's stunning victory. He has a huge personal vote from people who might otherwise vote blue too and he's not going to stick around for ever. Last time the LibDems fought him hard which, in the context of the Remain vs Brexit vote, was quite ridiculous.
Um. Last time the LibDems fought Ben so hard they didn't actually stand. TBH everything else you said about Exeter is very doubtful too.
So that’s twice Exeter’s off the list. I think that also applies to some seats in Bristol.
This anti-woke agenda also contains a lot of nastiness. There's some downright racism, homophobia and transphobia in it.
That's not to say the pendulum didn't need correcting but the Cummings-Johnson inspired stoking of the white working class northern vote is going to bite them in the arse down south.
Amongst other things.
There are extremists on both sides. Clearly, if you are a bit of bigot you're going to side with anti-Wokeness. There's also bigotry (of a different form) on the other side, including reverse racism, nastiness to feminists, nonsensical dogma, and the weaponising of sexuality.
The bigger issue though is that the country is perfectly split on, or slightly against, most of it, and there are lots of moderates on both sides.
"Woke" gets the stronger criticism because it's the article of faith of the day by the elites, and very much in the ascendancy - it isn't challenged much by them so it will be challenged by others.
I don't think the 'woke' thing makes much difference because it is a niche issue, people just aren't aware of it, they are going about thinking that nothing is happening whilst in reality the Civil service, the BBC, and large parts of the private sector have been taken over what can only be described as a radical cult which is going about destroying ancient liberties in favour of utopian, contradictory and flawed ideas about social justice.
If you follow Tory MP's like Ben Bradley they keep asking their followers to raise the issue with MP's to make sure it stays on the agenda.
I doubt it makes much difference in either of these by elections.
My post of 20 May: "Anyone think LibDems at 18 in Chesham and Amersham is a bit big?".
I think I beat Mike to it but happy to be corrected.
I laid CP at 1.06 20 May. Then further bets later. Took a bit of profit yesterday (darn it) but coffers two grand up this morning. Yeah.
Now I just need a holiday to spend it on.
There was a header tipping this on the 10 May!
Oh bum - I thought header was later.
I got on at 20 on 22nd May. Can't remember whether I did it following a tip on here or just out of small hope Johnson would finally get some sort of kicking.
If I did it over a tip: then I thank you @Stocky and others.
I've just checked back and I "think" this was the earliest post on the subject, though only an implicit tip from Mike:
Mike: "Smarkets just opened a Chesham & Amersham by-election exchange market. Tories currently 1.12".
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
SKS is completely useless..
What is clear is that the left are out to get him and they'll probably get their scalp.
I backed the Conservatives for a tenner yesterday and promptly told the board because my "outside of Scotland" betting has a shocking record to give people a chance to flee.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Tactical voting in Shire seats for the LDs was a key part of 1997. It will be a key part of defeating the Tories, which cannot be won on university seats alone.
To all those who have been saying there is no point in the Lib Dems, your boys took a hell of a beating!
Spoiled only by all these non-LibDems crowing about their winnings while here was I thinking we would lose
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
The point is that this is one of many seats that Labour can never win.
On the island, we’re in a similar position, except trapped by Labour having scored a clear second place last time. Yet there are no circumstances in which Labour can ever win this seat. And their harping on about coming second simply puts a mountain in front of those parties who, in unlikely but not impossible circumstances, might win it.
Which of the 2 new Island seats will be the best LD/Green target? Any signs of 1 each to target?
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Like Corbyn in 2019. He got the fewest number of Parliamentary votes in any election since 1935
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
SKS is completely useless..
What is clear is that the left are out to get him and they'll probably get their scalp.
Steve Bush in Newstatesman says he has heard plenty of MPs in Lab who think Starmer wont make it past this autumn's conference.
That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
They're not. The LibDems have always advocated and supported localism, a tradition going back at least the best part of a century. Defending a planning process that gives local people a say in local development - a say that both Labour and Tory governments have already significantly reduced with all the 'presumption in favour of development' that planning is now required to make - is entirely in accord with Liberal principles.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Tactical voting in Shire seats for the LDs was a key part of 1997. It will be a key part of defeating the Tories, which cannot be won on university seats alone.
To all those who have been saying there is no point in the Lib Dems, your boys took a hell of a beating!
While I am thrilled the government has taken a kicking, it makes me sad Foxy. Because it shows that there is strong appetite for a non-Labour alternative to the government but the Lib Dems really are in too much of a state to be a serious choice for party of government. From small seeds I suppose…
That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
They're not. The LibDems have always advocated and supported localism, a tradition going back at least the best part of a century. Defending a planning process that gives local people a say in local development - a say that both Labour and Tory governments have already significantly reduced with all the 'presumption in favour of development' that planning is now required to make - is entirely in accord with Liberal principles.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
SKS is completely useless..
What is clear is that the left are out to get him and they'll probably get their scalp.
Anyone who ontinually underperforms even Corbyn on every single electoral test simply has to go.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
The point is that this is one of many seats that Labour can never win.
On the island, we’re in a similar position, except trapped by Labour having scored a clear second place last time. Yet there are no circumstances in which Labour can ever win this seat. And their harping on about coming second simply puts a mountain in front of those parties who, in unlikely but not impossible circumstances, might win it.
Which of the 2 new Island seats will be the best LD/Green target? Any signs of 1 each to target?
The boundaries are being contested locally, so, despite my support, the proposal may not be the final one.
At council level the general picture is that the Tories win the rural parishes with the rainbow of non-Tories winning in the larger towns. Therefore you'd expect the western seat (where the current Tory MP lives, or claims that he does) to be safe Tory and the eastern seat more interesting.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
SKS is completely useless..
What is clear is that the left are out to get him and they'll probably get their scalp.
Steve Bush in Newstatesman says he has heard plenty of MPs in Lab who think Starmer wont make it past this autumn's conference.
Funnily enough, unlike Hartlepool, I have found it very difficult to get any meaningful coverage on this from any of the news channels...The old old story?
I think the size of the libdem majority cannot just be written off as local factors and anger with lockdown, this is also to to do with Brexit realignment.
Realignment is accelerating and therefore the tories should take Batley and Spen by election.
My post of 20 May: "Anyone think LibDems at 18 in Chesham and Amersham is a bit big?".
I think I beat Mike to it but happy to be corrected.
I laid CP at 1.06 20 May. Then further bets later. Took a bit of profit yesterday (darn it) but coffers two grand up this morning. Yeah.
Now I just need a holiday to spend it on.
There was a header tipping this on the 10 May!
Oh bum - I thought header was later.
I got on at 20 on 22nd May. Can't remember whether I did it following a tip on here or just out of small hope Johnson would finally get some sort of kicking.
If I did it over a tip: then I thank you @Stocky and others.
I've just checked back and I "think" this was the earliest post on the subject, though only an implicit tip from Mike:
Mike: "Smarkets just opened a Chesham & Amersham by-election exchange market. Tories currently 1.12".
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Like Corbyn in 2019. He got the fewest number of Parliamentary votes in any election since 1935
sic Labour & since 2015 you mean ?
Well, I was assuming they were referring to Labour above, and by ‘Parliamentary votes’ I meant ‘seats.’
I thought that the tips for the lib dems were wishful thinking on the part of Mike Smithson, however I was proved completely wrong by this result. Kudos to him.
I think it is a bit early to write off the tories on the basis of this result, if they win in B and S then the balance is in favour of making further encroachments in the red wall rather than trying to placate 'difficult' southern voters elected a libdem on what looks to be a NIMBY local agenda.
Plus, the voters in C & A will now have an MP who finds it hard to work with the chancellor, we will have to see what the consequences of that are!
That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
No, It is about local decisions by local communities.
It is not just the Red Wall that is fed up with arrogant centralised decision-making riding roughshod over local sensibilities.
Yeah right. 🤣
So the LDs, who only yesterday in Parliament had an MP calling for much more immigration to Oxfordshire, have been locally calling for much more quality housing in Oxfordshire have they?
Or is it a case of get us some cheap bartenders and nannies, but don't disturb our house prices?
I backed the Conservatives for a tenner yesterday and promptly told the board because my "outside of Scotland" betting has a shocking record to give people a chance to flee.
O/t, I realise, but is it expected that there will be an election in Northern Ireland. The DUP seem to be in 'ferrets in a sack' mode. Could surely lead to an SF led Administration.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Don't worry! Angela Rayner is on the march. As Deputy Leader of the Labour Party she has already been posing with that non-Labour MP Corbyn to virtue signal to the election winners that she is on their side.
Replace serkir with someone more suitable to the Unite leadership and you're bound to win back all the lost votes...
This is what happens when the Conservative and Unionist party outsources its policy, principles and leadership to UKIP...
Quite
What a load of bollocks. The Tories won a massive majority because of Brexit. I voted remain in the referendum but since we have left, the EU have behaved despicably, as one would expect , like a child's tantrum. Well they can fuck off.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
SKS is completely useless..
What is clear is that the left are out to get him and they'll probably get their scalp.
Steve Bush in Newstatesman says he has heard plenty of MPs in Lab who think Starmer wont make it past this autumn's conference.
Seems unlikely to me.
Gone by conference 2022 for certain.
I don't believe it - the LP never ousts it's leaders. When was the last time? Starmer may resign - but I doubt it. I've been laying Starmer Exit in 2021 whenever I can get under 5.5.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
The point is that this is one of many seats that Labour can never win.
On the island, we’re in a similar position, except trapped by Labour having scored a clear second place last time. Yet there are no circumstances in which Labour can ever win this seat. And their harping on about coming second simply puts a mountain in front of those parties who, in unlikely but not impossible circumstances, might win it.
Which of the 2 new Island seats will be the best LD/Green target? Any signs of 1 each to target?
The boundaries are being contested locally, so, despite my support, the proposal may not be the final one.
At council level the general picture is that the Tories win the rural parishes with the rainbow of non-Tories winning in the larger towns. Therefore you'd expect the western seat (where the current Tory MP lives, or claims that he does) to be safe Tory and the eastern seat more interesting.
In 2019, I was canvassed by the Tory candidate while visiting the Island. Seemed a pleasant enough but innocuous fellow, and nice to see him pounding the pavements. I told him that no way would I be voting Conservative ever again.
It will be interesting to see if WFH does boost the Island anti-Tory vote.
That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
No, It is about local decisions by local communities.
It is not just the Red Wall that is fed up with arrogant centralised decision-making riding roughshod over local sensibilities.
Yeah right. 🤣
So the LDs, who only yesterday in Parliament had an MP calling for much more immigration to Oxfordshire, have been locally calling for much more quality housing in Oxfordshire have they?
Or is it a case of get us some cheap bartenders and nannies, but don't disturb our house prices?
You really do need to get out and meet some Tory councillors in the Home Counties.
Traditional Conservatives in traditional Conservative seats can see the Tories getting drunk on socialism and socialist solutions. This is because Johnson isn't a Conservative, even less so a principled Conservative, he's a populist who looks for simple solutions to popularity. So he splashes cash everywhere.
A true Conservative response (and to be fair i understand it is happening to some extent where Tory success in the North is locally driven) to their success in breaking the Labour stranglehold is to promote traditional Tory solutions of freeing business and encouraging local entrepreneurship and private inward investment to show how they can work in providing jobs and prosperity, whilst providing freedom from the dead hand of the state.
Johnson's solution is to promise cash to everyone and, accelerated by the emergency lessons of the pandemic, the taps have been well and truly opened.
They also see the apparent rampant corruption and lack of transparency (or let's be generous, lack of respect for the spending of public money) and wonder where it's all going to end up.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
I'm beginning to wonder whether the country is dividing down Leave Remain lines rather than Labour Tory. It'll be a good thing in my opinion and though it might feel odd people like you will become Johnson Tories. You already sound like one.
Morning all. No doubt the PB Europhiles and LibDems wil be hailing the end of the Conservative Government. This result is a good mid-term win for the LibDems but was fairly common in Margaret Thatchers mid-terms. Remember Shirley Williams and Crosby overturning something like a 19,000 majority. She lost the seat back to the Tories. Incidentally how does this seat do in the boundary changes?
I hope all the happy remainers who voted LibDem yesterday ask their shiny new LibDem MP what good she is doing as the HS2 bulldozers go straight through their villages. No doubt Ed Davey will follow the road of his predecessors and be gone the day after the next General Election.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
SKS 100% record intact.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Your tangible excitement at Labour doing badly is a really bad look. Labour voters didn't vote Tory or Lib Dem because Labour wasn't left wing enough.
They just didn't vote Labour in Hartlepool the 2021 Local Elections or Chesham & Amersham.
SKS is completely useless..
What is clear is that the left are out to get him and they'll probably get their scalp.
Anyone who ontinually underperforms even Corbyn on every single electoral test simply has to go.
B&S is his last chance imo
That’s the line the left are spinning. Obviously hypocrisy given their enduring support for Corbyn. But hey, I’m not surprised.
I did note yesterday that the Labour vote looked to have gone to LD wholesale, which was a necessary (but not sufficient) precondition of a win.
Never dreamed of a win of this scale. I don’t even think C&A is the perfect LD seat. This is an ill omen for Johnson personally (he is indistinguishable from Toryism now).
It’s been clear since the beginning of this Parliament that a Tory defeat means:
1. Lab/LD cooperation and vote switching 2. Some kind of Lab recovery in Scotland 3. An electable Lab leader.
Hopefully we can tick off 1. No sign of 2 yet. Jury is still out on 3.
I thought that the tips for the lib dems were wishful thinking on the part of Mike Smithson, however I was proved completely wrong by this result. Kudos to him.
I think it is a bit early to write off the tories on the basis of this result, if they win in B and S then the balance is in favour of making further encroachments in the red wall rather than trying to placate 'difficult' southern voters elected a libdem on what looks to be a NIMBY local agenda.
Plus, the voters in C & A will now have an MP who finds it hard to work with the chancellor, we will have to see what the consequences of that are!
If I were the government I'd announce 20k houses were now to be built in C&A - that'd teach the nimbys.
That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
No, It is about local decisions by local communities.
It is not just the Red Wall that is fed up with arrogant centralised decision-making riding roughshod over local sensibilities.
Yeah right. 🤣
So the LDs, who only yesterday in Parliament had an MP calling for much more immigration to Oxfordshire, have been locally calling for much more quality housing in Oxfordshire have they?
Or is it a case of get us some cheap bartenders and nannies, but don't disturb our house prices?
You really do need to get out and meet some Tory councillors in the Home Counties.
Why?
I'm not a Tory loyalist. As a Home County Tory councillor on this site would happily tell you.
I wonder if the Lib Dems might be able to displace the Tories long term in the Home counties. Raab, Redwood and a few others must be nervous. Winchester looks gone next GE now
O/t, I realise, but is it expected that there will be an election in Northern Ireland. The DUP seem to be in 'ferrets in a sack' mode. Could surely lead to an SF led Administration.
NI Assembly elections are next spring aren't they?
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Westminster? 260 Labour MPs with 30 LDs is a heck of a lot better for Labour than 260 Labour MPs with 10 LDs.
I meant in the constituencies! I can think of Kensington, Westminster, Finchley. Beyond that I’m struggling to think of marginal seats where Labour are second with significant Lib Dem votes. There may be a couple in Scotland.
I know you meant that but it doesnt hold up because the strategic benefit of a pact for Labour is clearly in potential Westminster parliaments. Both sides dont need to win extra seats to make it win-win.
But we were talking about Labour winning seats with tactical Lib Dem votes.
So your point wasn’t really relevant.
I'm beginning to think you are either incapable of backing off when you're wrong or just an idiot.
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
The point is that this is one of many seats that Labour can never win.
On the island, we’re in a similar position, except trapped by Labour having scored a clear second place last time. Yet there are no circumstances in which Labour can ever win this seat. And their harping on about coming second simply puts a mountain in front of those parties who, in unlikely but not impossible circumstances, might win it.
Which of the 2 new Island seats will be the best LD/Green target? Any signs of 1 each to target?
The boundaries are being contested locally, so, despite my support, the proposal may not be the final one.
At council level the general picture is that the Tories win the rural parishes with the rainbow of non-Tories winning in the larger towns. Therefore you'd expect the western seat (where the current Tory MP lives, or claims that he does) to be safe Tory and the eastern seat more interesting.
In 2019, I was canvassed by the Tory candidate while visiting the Island. Seemed a pleasant enough but innocuous fellow, and nice to see him pounding the pavements. I told him that no way would I be voting Conservative ever again.
It will be interesting to see if WFH does boost the Island anti-Tory vote.
The new Tory MP is at least intelligent and capable, which his predecessor wasn’t.
I passed the estate agent yesterday and there is only one property for sale in its window, so they’ve filled it with “sold in 2021” adverts for properties already sold. Anecdotally people have been buying here without even travelling to a viewing.
That said, I’m with @Philip_Thompson in that I’m disappointed that the Lib Dems are going down the NIMBY route
They're not. The LibDems have always advocated and supported localism, a tradition going back at least the best part of a century. Defending a planning process that gives local people a say in local development - a say that both Labour and Tory governments have already significantly reduced with all the 'presumption in favour of development' that planning is now required to make - is entirely in accord with Liberal principles.
Localism on housing does not correlate with globalism on immigration.
I thought that the tips for the lib dems were wishful thinking on the part of Mike Smithson, however I was proved completely wrong by this result. Kudos to him.
I think it is a bit early to write off the tories on the basis of this result, if they win in B and S then the balance is in favour of making further encroachments in the red wall rather than trying to placate 'difficult' southern voters elected a libdem on what looks to be a NIMBY local agenda.
Plus, the voters in C & A will now have an MP who finds it hard to work with the chancellor, we will have to see what the consequences of that are!
If I were the government I'd announce 20k houses were now to be built in C&A - that'd teach the nimbys.
I thought that the tips for the lib dems were wishful thinking on the part of Mike Smithson, however I was proved completely wrong by this result. Kudos to him.
I think it is a bit early to write off the tories on the basis of this result, if they win in B and S then the balance is in favour of making further encroachments in the red wall rather than trying to placate 'difficult' southern voters elected a libdem on what looks to be a NIMBY local agenda.
Plus, the voters in C & A will now have an MP who finds it hard to work with the chancellor, we will have to see what the consequences of that are!
If I were the government I'd announce 20k houses were now to be built in C&A - that'd teach the nimbys.
Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.
The problem is, and always has been, that labour will not countenance a pre-election pact and they certainly will not give one with the likely LD and possibly green precondition of non-referendum electoral reform. Labour have, psychologically, a lot to lose by conceding that government is a two party game as that dissuades anti tories voting for an alternative.
I backed the Conservatives for a tenner yesterday and promptly told the board because my "outside of Scotland" betting has a shocking record to give people a chance to flee.
Who are you backing in Batley
Based on what Labour activists are saying, don't write off Galloway. Eugh, did I really have to type his name again?
Comments
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1405769252569698308
If they're working in the City in financial services, sure. If they're working in the public or 3rd sector, arts or the media, then absolutely not.
Also, there's a direct conflict between some of their proposals to make housing more affordable for young people and those who actually vote - and we've just seen how powerful that can be in C&A.
The boundary changes will make this more pertinent. For example, Exeter is now more marginal. Remember until 1997 it was Conservative until Ben Bradshaw's stunning victory. He has a huge personal vote from people who might otherwise vote blue too and he's not going to stick around for ever. Last time the LibDems fought him hard which, in the context of the Remain vs Brexit vote, was quite ridiculous.
And - maybe most of all - a concerted and impressive LibDem effort on the ground to concentrate the anti-government potential voters to the yellows.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
If the LP had been second placed in the 2019 GE in that seat would the reverse have happened - i.e. would LibDem voters have lent their votes to the LP?
His point is a very good one and backed by examples. If Labour and LibDems get their heads together in southern Britain it will benefit BOTH parties. There are many towns and cities in the south, as well as constituencies in London, where Labour can either shore up support or gain seats if the LibDems co-operate. And vice-versa. It's not rocket science and you really are wasting your time arguing against it.
Now about that “masks forever” policy…
Here is the question. In simple language.
Where are the seats that Labour do not hold where they could attract significant number of Lib Dem votes to win the seats?
The list offered doesn’t really apply because Labour already holds most of the seats. They can’t win more in Bristol or Exeter, for example.
We’ve added Worthing to the list. Where else?
Edit - this is important because, if there are several, there are clearly some value bets to look at.
Get vaccinated guys...
I am a little richer this morning: on at 20/1
On the island, we’re in a similar position, except trapped by Labour having scored a clear second place last time. Yet there are no circumstances in which Labour can ever win this seat. And their harping on about coming second simply puts a mountain in front of those parties who, in unlikely but not impossible circumstances, might win it.
Some core cost of living stuff there. Basically, the Tories need to end the triple lock now (don't care about the manifesto: blame it on Covid.. whatever; they've had a great 10 years) and flip the funding to housing, childcare, and infrastructure improvements.
By the time of the next election the oldies will have got over it, and maybe a few more of working age (particularly in their 30s) will consider Tory.
Westminster LDs: Err.. um... Build HS2.
1. Voters like good governance. You can only run government as a circus that is all clowns for so long before people think it's a joke
2. This is exactly the kind of thing we were trying to do in 2019. Had Labour not been such arrogant wazzocks a decent number of seats would have gone LD in the south
3. Beware voters being disappointed. Tories in C&A unhappy with planning. I read upset and outrage in Teesside where new blue seats have been promised the moon on a stick and are getting rail service cuts. Blue wall Tories expect tangible gains, they're getting very little and patronised to boot.
Part 2 is Batley and Spen. It's not a typical red wall seat. It sounds like Labour activists are getting a beating on the doorstep which would point to another Tory gain.
Except for the Joker in the field - Galloway. He's done it before, he knows which time to play to pied piper away with Labour voters, it's a similar demographic to his past Bradford triumph...
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
SKS is completely useless..
To all those who have been saying there is no point in the Lib Dems, your boys took a hell of a beating!
If I did it over a tip: then I thank you @Stocky and others.
If you follow Tory MP's like Ben Bradley they keep asking their followers to raise the issue with MP's to make sure it stays on the agenda.
I doubt it makes much difference in either of these by elections.
Mike: "Smarkets just opened a Chesham & Amersham by-election exchange market. Tories currently 1.12".
Seems unlikely to me.
B&S is his last chance imo
It is not just the Red Wall that is fed up with arrogant centralised decision-making riding roughshod over local sensibilities.
At council level the general picture is that the Tories win the rural parishes with the rainbow of non-Tories winning in the larger towns. Therefore you'd expect the western seat (where the current Tory MP lives, or claims that he does) to be safe Tory and the eastern seat more interesting.
I think the size of the libdem majority cannot just be written off as local factors and anger with lockdown, this is also to to do with Brexit realignment.
Realignment is accelerating and therefore the tories should take Batley and Spen by election.
If I’m honest through, I was being mischievous.
Have a good morning.
I think it is a bit early to write off the tories on the basis of this result, if they win in B and S then the balance is in favour of making further encroachments in the red wall rather than trying to placate 'difficult' southern voters elected a libdem on what looks to be a NIMBY local agenda.
Plus, the voters in C & A will now have an MP who finds it hard to work with the chancellor, we will have to see what the consequences of that are!
So the LDs, who only yesterday in Parliament had an MP calling for much more immigration to Oxfordshire, have been locally calling for much more quality housing in Oxfordshire have they?
Or is it a case of get us some cheap bartenders and nannies, but don't disturb our house prices?
Sky News picking up on this. I think we'll hear a lot of this 'Losing the Blue Wall' over the next months.
There's something in there. Some greens voted tactically for Liberal but some Labour corbyn types voted green? Or Green vote is small but rock solid?
All over 18s in England now eligible to book their first Covid jab, nationwide.
Great news that whatever party you support.
Replace serkir with someone more suitable to the Unite leadership and you're bound to win back all the lost votes...
But why hasn't Betfair settled yet ?
It will be interesting to see if WFH does boost the Island anti-Tory vote.
A true Conservative response (and to be fair i understand it is happening to some extent where Tory success in the North is locally driven) to their success in breaking the Labour stranglehold is to promote traditional Tory solutions of freeing business and encouraging local entrepreneurship and private inward investment to show how they can work in providing jobs and prosperity, whilst providing freedom from the dead hand of the state.
Johnson's solution is to promise cash to everyone and, accelerated by the emergency lessons of the pandemic, the taps have been well and truly opened.
They also see the apparent rampant corruption and lack of transparency (or let's be generous, lack of respect for the spending of public money) and wonder where it's all going to end up.
It can make a start by putting Russia on the red list today.
The percentage outcomes for this by-election are astonishing enough but when you see how it shakes out in votes it gets even more astonishing for me.
It does lean me towards the Pulpstarian view that this is a Con pickup at the next election.
I hope all the happy remainers who voted LibDem yesterday ask their shiny new LibDem MP what good she is doing as the HS2 bulldozers go straight through their villages. No doubt Ed Davey will follow the road of his predecessors and be gone the day after the next General Election.
However don't take for granted the seats you have held for ages.
Unfortunately this is another win for NIMBYISM as well as Brexit realignment
Never dreamed of a win of this scale.
I don’t even think C&A is the perfect LD seat.
This is an ill omen for Johnson personally (he is indistinguishable from Toryism now).
It’s been clear since the beginning of this Parliament that a Tory defeat means:
1. Lab/LD cooperation and vote switching
2. Some kind of Lab recovery in Scotland
3. An electable Lab leader.
Hopefully we can tick off 1.
No sign of 2 yet.
Jury is still out on 3.
I'm not a Tory loyalist. As a Home County Tory councillor on this site would happily tell you.
Raab, Redwood and a few others must be nervous. Winchester looks gone next GE now
I hope the disintegration of the DUP continues.
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
I passed the estate agent yesterday and there is only one property for sale in its window, so they’ve filled it with “sold in 2021” adverts for properties already sold. Anecdotally people have been buying here without even travelling to a viewing.
The government needs a slap, but should not let up on housebuilding.
Glad I didn’t bet on this one at 1/10.