The LDs take Chesham and Amersham with a 25% CON to LD swing – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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The least worst of the current gang are Nandy and Reeves. Cooper would be my choice. Taking that into fully into account and the self destructive tendency it will probably be Burgon.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?0 -
Is this Lab/LD vote switching?Gardenwalker said:I did note yesterday that the Labour vote looked to have gone to LD wholesale, which was a necessary (but not sufficient) precondition of a win.
Never dreamed of a win of this scale.
I don’t even think C&A is the perfect LD seat.
This is an ill omen for Johnson personally (he is indistinguishable from Toryism now).
It’s been clear since the beginning of this Parliament that a Tory defeat means:
1. Lab/LD cooperation and vote switching
2. Some kind of Lab recovery in Scotland
3. An electable Lab leader.
Hopefully we can tick off 1.
No sign of 2 yet.
Jury is still out on 3.
Or is this just typical by election politics combined with Lab unpopularity.
Will Labour next time be squeezing LD votes, or not?0 -
Didn't Owen spend a long time saying Corbyn should be replaced before deciding he was great and getting right behind him in time for the 2019 electoral disaster?RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?0 -
Has Boris used the F word?another_richard said:So my good value loser turns into an easy winner.
But why hasn't Betfair settled yet ?
Fraud that is not that Hancock is f ing hopeless.0 -
Very interesting...RochdalePioneers said:
Based on what Labour activists are saying, don't write off Galloway. Eugh, did I really have to type his name again?Pulpstar said:0 -
?Scott_xP said:What a dick...
I am deeply disappointed that the people of #CheshamAndAmersham have, under the extraordinary circumstances of a by-election, voted for someone else to represent them in Parliament. Our work to regain the trust of local people begins today. @caca_tories
https://twitter.com/pdfleet/status/1405706248956358657
It’s BS but I don’t see how it’s particular dickish?0 -
I’d expect it to revert to the Conservatives at the GE, unless the new MP can build up a very big personal vote.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Factors in Chesham & Amersham 2021
> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)
> demographic & attitudinal shifts
> Brexit - leave versus remain
> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants
> Freedom Day announcement > postponement
> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)
> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons
> by-election blast OR political transformation?
Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.
A realignment on the basis of Brexit/anti-Brexit benefits the Tories because the Brexit vote is more efficiently distributed than the anti-Brexit vote.3 -
No explicit deal is required. There wasn't in 1997, just a tacit concentration of votes on whoever was best positioned to oust the Blue Meanies.beentheredonethat said:
The problem is, and always has been, that labour will not countenance a pre-election pact and they certainly will not give one with the likely LD and possibly green precondition of non-referendum electoral reform. Labour have, psychologically, a lot to lose by conceding that government is a two party game as that dissuades anti tories voting for an alternative.Cocky_cockney said:
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.ydoethur said:
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.Jonathan said:
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.ydoethur said:
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.Jonathan said:Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Incidentally, I cannot see an early election now. 2024 it is.3 -
Mandelson.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?2 -
Piss on our chips why don't ya!NorthCadboll said:Morning all. No doubt the PB Europhiles and LibDems wil be hailing the end of the Conservative Government. This result is a good mid-term win for the LibDems but was fairly common in Margaret Thatchers mid-terms. Remember Shirley Williams and Crosby overturning something like a 19,000 majority. She lost the seat back to the Tories. Incidentally how does this seat do in the boundary changes?
I hope all the happy remainers who voted LibDem yesterday ask their shiny new LibDem MP what good she is doing as the HS2 bulldozers go straight through their villages. No doubt Ed Davey will follow the road of his predecessors and be gone the day after the next General Election.1 -
The trouble with leaving work early is that when you and Phillip arrive back in the morning you end up rushing rushing around like blue arsed flies feeding off scrapsCarlottaVance said:Ed Davey having a slightly tricky time on HS2 on R4….
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I must say the Liberals have considerably perked up the start of my Friday and then we have the footy later.
Looking like a good day.1 -
I'm pretty disgusted at myself for only winning 80 quid here7
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There are not many Lib Dem votes to squeeze.Philip_Thompson said:
Is this Lab/LD vote switching?Gardenwalker said:I did note yesterday that the Labour vote looked to have gone to LD wholesale, which was a necessary (but not sufficient) precondition of a win.
Never dreamed of a win of this scale.
I don’t even think C&A is the perfect LD seat.
This is an ill omen for Johnson personally (he is indistinguishable from Toryism now).
It’s been clear since the beginning of this Parliament that a Tory defeat means:
1. Lab/LD cooperation and vote switching
2. Some kind of Lab recovery in Scotland
3. An electable Lab leader.
Hopefully we can tick off 1.
No sign of 2 yet.
Jury is still out on 3.
Or is this just typical by election politics combined with Lab unpopularity.
Will Labour next time be squeezing LD votes, or not?0 -
I think an orange-book type Lib Dem party could, that's more like the FDP in Germany.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the Lib Dems might be able to displace the Tories long term in the Home counties.
Raab, Redwood and a few others must be nervous. Winchester looks gone next GE now
It would be concentrated along the M3 and M4 commuter belts though - it wouldn't conquer all.0 -
Yes. The DUP really have turned into Gozer the Destructor if you are a Unionist. Sweeping aside the UUP their grand old man managed to set aside decades of NO! and make peace with the IRA. Look what his successors have done with that amazing political settlement!OldKingCole said:O/t, I realise, but is it expected that there will be an election in Northern Ireland. The DUP seem to be in 'ferrets in a sack' mode. Could surely lead to an SF led Administration.
The reality check is that the DUP deserve to be swept away. Electing a psychotic creationist as leader, being anti-women's rights, anti-21st Century societal progress and apparently pro-separation from GB.
Lets have an election (again). A few will vote for the ultra-hard line alternative, the rest (hopefully) vote for the Alliance and softer UUP. If Sinn Fein top the poll, well...1 -
I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??2
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Seems to be an intrinsic contradiction between the nimbys who don't want any houses built and the young who need them to be.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the Lib Dems might be able to displace the Tories long term in the Home counties.
Raab, Redwood and a few others must be nervous. Winchester looks gone next GE now
I wonder if there's a tipping point for when too much of the local capital is in property values and it effectively crowds out productive capital.3 -
This result all but ensures the boundary changes too I thinkFoxy said:
No explicit deal is required. There wasn't in 1997, just a tacit concentration of votes on whoever was best positioned to oust the Blue Meanies.beentheredonethat said:
The problem is, and always has been, that labour will not countenance a pre-election pact and they certainly will not give one with the likely LD and possibly green precondition of non-referendum electoral reform. Labour have, psychologically, a lot to lose by conceding that government is a two party game as that dissuades anti tories voting for an alternative.Cocky_cockney said:
There are plenty of southern towns and cities in particular where reciprocity would work for Labour. I'm thinking of places like Exeter, Bristol, Portsmouth and along the southern coast. And then there's London which could really benefit from both parties getting their heads together.ydoethur said:
For the Lib Dems it may be good news.Jonathan said:
If Lib/Lab tactical voting is now a thing again, that is nothing but a good news for Labour and the Lib Dems.ydoethur said:
Well, objectively, it is a bad result for Labour. Their voters have clearly switched en masse to the Lib Dems. That might help them in a general election if it cost the Tories Esher and Walton, Henley, Maidenhead, Cheltenham etc but then again, it might not.Jonathan said:Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
But it is a much worse result for the Tories, who clearly also lost votes to the Lib Dems and to the NOTA party. They do not want that result to be replicated across the Home Counties at the next election.
Where will Labour find a Lib Dem vote for reciprocal squeezing?
Incidentally, I cannot see an early election now. 2024 it is.0 -
Good post RP.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
It would be great if the LibDems blasted Batley and Spen like they did C&A. I realise they have no support there but what the hell. Find some local issues, send Ed Davey up, make a concerted effort to be the second party in this country. What have they got to lose?0 -
As you know the 12.8m of 2017 was the final highpoint before a terminal probably irreversible decline.RochdalePioneers said:
Don't worry! Angela Rayner is on the march. As Deputy Leader of the Labour Party she has already been posing with that non-Labour MP Corbyn to virtue signal to the election winners that she is on their side.bigjohnowls said:
SKS 100% record intact.Jonathan said:Hurrah. Love the way that the usual suspects on the left and right are uniting to spin this terrific result for the LDs as bad for Labour.
This is all about showing there is life in the yellow dog yet. If it is about anything else, it is about providing evidence that the Tory blue underbelly is soft.
Nicely done.
Worst result in Hartlepool ever.
Worst result in C&A ever.
Worst result in terms of fewest votes in any Parliamentary election since Glasgow in 1935?
Triumph
Replace serkir with someone more suitable to the Unite leadership and you're bound to win back all the lost votes...
Labour should give it one final go with AB as leader in 2024.
Although how he even gets into Parliament is clearly problematic.0 -
It would not make any headway in Essex, Kent, Bedfordshire or Eastern Hertfordshire. Berkshire and Surrey would be promising.Casino_Royale said:
I think an orange-book type Lib Dem party could, that's more like the FDP in Germany.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the Lib Dems might be able to displace the Tories long term in the Home counties.
Raab, Redwood and a few others must be nervous. Winchester looks gone next GE now
It would be concentrated along the M3 and M4 commuter belts though - it wouldn't conquer all.2 -
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
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The Labour Leader has no power to sack the Labour Deputy Leader.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
Starmer can't sack Rayner, just as Corbyn couldn't sack Watson.4 -
BF have paid now.2
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The LD win in Chesham and Amersham is clearly a great result for them and Davey and also a triumph for Nimbyism. Tory MPs across the Home Counties will now be panicked into opposing new planning measures and any threat to the greenbelt for fear of losing their seats to the Liberal Democrats. The 25% swing the LDs got in the by election if repeated at the next general election would see 240 Tory MPs lose their seats (though the scale of the protest vote last night is unlikely to be repeated at a general election).
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
The result in this 55% Remain seat also shows how Brexit has realigned UK politics and confirms the pattern seen in the local elections and Hartlepool by election. The Tories are making gains in the strong Leave voting Midlands and North but losing votes to the LDs and Greens in the softer Leave and Remain South with Labour getting squeezed outside Wales and London.1 -
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In an alternative part of the multi-verse the Tories have just held on in Amersham as Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt is considered to have had a competent and effective anti-Covid war – his long experience as Health Secretary having proved invaluable1
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Wouldn't that be interesting! I despised him back in the day but quite like him now. Same with Alastair Campbell. What's going on?rottenborough said:
Mandelson.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?0 -
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
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That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?0 -
Beaten by Galloway ?Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
To lose one byelection may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.
To come second in Batley may be a misfortune; to come third looks like carelessness.0 -
The latest suggestion was that RB were using hot and humid ‘air’ to fill the tyres, just before the pressure measurement was taken. This air then cools off and the pressure drops. From next year, they will have to run a standard pressure monitoring system feeding back to the FIA.Nigelb said:
And Pirelli confirm the tyre failures were as a result of Red Bull and Aston Martin running them at too low a pressure.Nigelb said:As predicted, a new chassis for Bottas (and Hamilton).
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/
If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.
The rule tightening will almost certainly affect their performance.1 -
Tory hubris given a good kicking. Excellent news.9
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R4 describing the result as "a surprise".
Not if they read PB!!!
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Blairrottenborough said:
Mandelson.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?0 -
It was the internal polling that made me bet on the Cons.
I translated "within 4" to "deffo at least 8 behind" in my head.0 -
Excellent news re the by election . Johnson deserved this for his pathetic leadership over not gettting rid of the covid restrictions when he said he would1
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My issue is that every spending pledge for the North, Scotland, Midlands and everywhere else in the country just adds up to higher taxes for people in London and the South East. I don't think I'm alone in that and the voters of C&A have shown this. This government is bribing voters in the North with our tax.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, it's a good article.IanB2 said:
That linked Times article, from which I copied some extracts above, says it very clearlyCasino_Royale said:
I'd say if Brexit was your chief concern you'd have been amongst the 25k that voted for Labour, LD or the Greens at the 2019 election, no? And I note the LDs got only 15k of that.IanB2 said:
Yes and no. Not dissatisfaction with Brexit specifically, but Brexit is part of the Tories’ shift away from the educated middle classes in search of its new constituency, and that new constituency isn’t C & A.Casino_Royale said:
Let me disavow you of something straight away: this by-election isn't about Brexit.Dura_Ace said:
What has been forgotten in the tories' recent fleg strewn auto da fé is that there are still millions of people and therefore voters who fucking hate Brexit. Not even so much the actuality of it but the reactionary, intellectually impoverished and essentially eugenicist worldview it typifies.Cocky_cockney said:
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
See my post on confirmation bias.
Sarah Greens grand vote total is less than that at 21k.
It looks to me like all progressives rallied around her, and turned out, whilst Conservatives sat at home. If they'd all turned out at GE levels it would have been (by my reckoning) very marginal.
The key point is this: if you were virulently anti-Brexit (and there's definitely c.25% of the population like that) you were already voting Lib Dem.
Some core cost of living stuff there. Basically, the Tories need to end the triple lock now (don't care about the manifesto: blame it on Covid.. whatever; they've had a great 10 years) and flip the funding to housing, childcare, and infrastructure improvements.
By the time of the next election the oldies will have got over it, and maybe a few more of working age (particularly in their 30s) will consider Tory.
Add in the lockdown delay and the resultant loss of the vaccine bounce and we can expect this kind of result to become normal in the pissed off English South.0 -
Indeed:
Side note, but the number of MPs who, like Kit Malthouse, can say "I was Housing Minister for a year" explains a LOT about Britain's housing problems.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1405782068521472001?s=201 -
Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.4 -
Galloway knows how to work BEsanother_richard said:
Beaten by Galloway ?Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
To lose one byelection may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.
To come second in Batley may be a misfortune; to come third looks like carelessness.0 -
OK my contacts are now denying Galloway is anywhere. So perhaps he is just the spoiler candidate who dislodges enough Labour voters to stay at home. Hopefully. Dear God we do not need that prannock winning an election.Pulpstar said:
Very interesting...RochdalePioneers said:
Based on what Labour activists are saying, don't write off Galloway. Eugh, did I really have to type his name again?Pulpstar said:0 -
Also thanks to everyone who pointed out the value loser, shame it's in the low hundreds and not the thousands for me! Still it will be a good weekend.3
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I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?0 -
Turning to the footy tonight, I mentioned yesterday that Scotland are overpriced IMO to win 1-0 at 26. I now see the price is 29. I've topped up. If I were pricing that I'd go about 12's I think. 14 tops.3
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Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.1 -
If SF pull out of the executive because the new DUP leader opposes their Irish language plans unlike Poots and the DUP refuse to return to government over the Irish Sea border there won't be any administration, the Northern Ireland Executive will collapse and the UK government will have to restore rule by the NI office and the NI civil service until they agree.OldKingCole said:O/t, I realise, but is it expected that there will be an election in Northern Ireland. The DUP seem to be in 'ferrets in a sack' mode. Could surely lead to an SF led Administration.
The latest NI poll is SF 25%, DUP 16%, Alliance 16%, UUP 14%, SDLP 12% and Alliance 11%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
So SF is actually down on the 28% it got at the 2017 Assembly elections just the DUP is even further down through losses to the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (who got just 3% last time).
The main gainers on 2017 as well as TUV are the Alliance who are up 7% and the UUP who are up 2% under their new moderate leader Doug Beattie0 -
One of the many reasons that I don't follow F1. Constantly the rules are changed in a sport for technical lawyers.Sandpit said:
The latest suggestion was that RB were using hot and humid ‘air’ to fill the tyres, just before the pressure measurement was taken. This air then cools off and the pressure drops. From next year, they will have to run a standard pressure monitoring system feeding back to the FIA.Nigelb said:
And Pirelli confirm the tyre failures were as a result of Red Bull and Aston Martin running them at too low a pressure.Nigelb said:As predicted, a new chassis for Bottas (and Hamilton).
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/
If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.
The rule tightening will almost certainly affect their performance.
FFS, why not just let teams do whatever they like to go faster? Instead we get to see who goes fastest while handicapped. Pointless.0 -
Good post but OGH, and others, were not saying this was a likely result; rather that the probability of a LD win was considerably higher than the odds implied.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.1 -
That's a fallacy. There isn't a mindset of voters on the ground, there are multiple mindsets, one per voter. To adopt one of those at the expense of others is not sneering at anyone.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.1 -
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
What could possibly go wrong?
COVID Case Rate
Scotland: 116
London: 71
Just as well Nicola & Useless have told supporters not to travel.....oh...1 -
No no, we aren't even on the park in Batley. A paper candidate only. My point is that in seats where they should be competitive people aren't voting Labour because the left is dragging them away into the pit. Punters in places like Batley don't want the hard left, they could vote Labour but who are Labour these days and what do they stand for?Stocky said:
Good post RP.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
It would be great if the LibDems blasted Batley and Spen like they did C&A. I realise they have no support there but what the hell. Find some local issues, send Ed Davey up, make a concerted effort to be the second party in this country. What have they got to lose?
If people vote Tory they can see what bribes get thrown at northern seats (see this Front Page lead from the Northern Echo for the reality: https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19376642.new-rail-timetables-a-disaster-durham-darlington/). This is not Good for the Tories. All headlines is great, but sooner or later you have to deliver. Sunak coming up on to Darlo on a train his government are about to cut saying the Treasury move not affected as people shouldn't travel to / from London was tone deaf at best.0 -
Cooper is obviously the best choice, but would never get past the membership. Labour's problem is that there is no sitting MP who can win a leadership contest who would put the party in a better position. There are plenty who would make the situation far worse.Jonathan said:
The least worst of the current gang are Nandy and Reeves. Cooper would be my choice. Taking that into fully into account and the self destructive tendency it will probably be Burgon.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
3 -
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good Labour leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=200 -
She doesn't accumulate enemies within the party, and that is a very useful skill indeed. She is a loyalist to the leadership, standing by Corbyn when few others in the PLP would, and even not directly criticising Starmer when he was trying to sack her after Hartlepool.Roger said:
I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
She was a successful union negotiator, and that shows. Called in for a sacking by SKS, but leaving the room with a better portfolio.
Never confuse a lack of formal education with a lack of intelligence.
2 -
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
I remember the times you said those figures were use less and only the ONS figures should be used.CarlottaVance said:What could possibly go wrong?
COVID Case Rate
Scotland: 116
London: 71
Just as well Nicola & Useless have told supporters not to travel.....oh...0 -
He can't sack the Deputy Leader. He can sack the Chair of the Party and the National Campaign Co-ordinator. Or in his case he can't even do that - he tried to and ended up promoting her!SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The Labour Leader has no power to sack the Labour Deputy Leader.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
Starmer can't sack Rayner, just as Corbyn couldn't sack Watson.
Frit and Shit. A deadly combination.0 -
Wow. Proper by-elections are back!1
-
Stocky said:
Good post but OGH, and others, were not saying this was a likely result; rather that the probability of a LD win was considerably higher than the odds implied.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
0 -
Because there’s almost no limit to how fast the cars could go. And as a result you’d get people dying every other week.Foxy said:
One of the many reasons that I don't follow F1. Constantly the rules are changed in a sport for technical lawyers.Sandpit said:
The latest suggestion was that RB were using hot and humid ‘air’ to fill the tyres, just before the pressure measurement was taken. This air then cools off and the pressure drops. From next year, they will have to run a standard pressure monitoring system feeding back to the FIA.Nigelb said:
And Pirelli confirm the tyre failures were as a result of Red Bull and Aston Martin running them at too low a pressure.Nigelb said:As predicted, a new chassis for Bottas (and Hamilton).
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/
If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.
The rule tightening will almost certainly affect their performance.
FFS, why not just let teams do whatever they like to go faster? Instead we get to see who goes fastest while handicapped. Pointless.
The fact that rules are in place doesn’t put limits on innovation. The aim is still to go faster. But it’s a highly dangerous sport and there inevitably have to be rules to prevent teams pushing speed too far at the expense of safety.
It’s also the case that some of the rules are in place to try and provide something of a level playing field and improve the quality of racing (not always successfully of course). And the phrase “level playing field” means different things to different people (the old equality of opportunity vs outcome argument.0 -
I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
1 -
Yes, that was my point.Dura_Ace said:
Porsche already own 25% of Rimac and have a '911e' on their internal product roadmap.Nigelb said:@Dura_Ace ’s next motor(s) ?
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/rimac-nevera-hypercar-first-drive
If not, the technology will al least trickle down to Porsche in due course.
Who would have predicted a couple of decades back that Porsche's future would be at least partially tied to Croatian engineering ?0 -
Good morning
I actually heard the result live, and just have to say many congratulations to the lib dems on their spectacular success and warn my fellow conservatives that is far from a given it will be won back in 20242 -
True but there was at least an acceptance that it was both possible and more likely than the PB talking heads were implying.Stocky said:
Good post but OGH, and others, were not saying this was a likely result; rather that the probability of a LD win was considerably higher than the odds implied.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.1 -
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic0 -
One crucial question raised by this research is whether brain damage is also seen in mild cases and does this mean we need to start vaccinating children?Foxy said:
A really interesting study, and quite alarming in its long term implications.Nigelb said:Brain imaging before and after COVID-19 in UK Biobank
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1
There is strong evidence for brain-related pathologies in COVID-19, some of which could be a consequence of viral neurotropism. The vast majority of brain imaging studies so far have focused on qualitative, gross pathology of moderate to severe cases, often carried out on hospitalised patients. It remains unknown however whether the impact of COVID-19 can be detected in milder cases, in a quantitative and automated manner, and whether this can reveal a possible mechanism for the spread of the disease. UK Biobank scanned over 40,000 participants before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to invite back in 2021 hundreds of previously-imaged participants for a second imaging visit. Here, we studied the effects of the disease in the brain using multimodal data from 782 participants from the UK Biobank COVID-19 re-imaging study, with 394 participants having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between their two scans. We used structural and functional brain scans from before and after infection, to compare longitudinal brain changes between these 394 COVID-19 patients and 388 controls who were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and interval between scans. We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula. When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole. We further compared COVID-19 patients who had been hospitalised (n=15) with those who had not (n=379), and while results were not significant, we found comparatively similar findings to the COVID-19 vs control group comparison, with, in addition, a greater loss of grey matter in the cingulate cortex, central nucleus of the amygdala and hippocampal cornu ammonis (all |Z| > 3). Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system. Unlike in post hoc disease studies, the availability of pre-infection imaging data helps avoid the danger of pre-existing risk factors or clinical conditions being mis-interpreted as disease effects. Since a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system might be via the olfactory mucosa and the olfactory bulb, these brain imaging results might be the in vivo hallmark of the spread of the disease (or the virus itself) via olfactory and gustatory pathways.
Get vaccinated guys...1 -
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.0 -
Cost me a couple of hundred pounds, and kicking myself because I was all green with a good fair result in the LDs until late last night when I rashly switched my position. Well done to the LDs though. Really very surprised. My thinking was that the LDs really are pretty invisible nationally and that there would never be the numbers with the enthusiasm to vote for them. How wrong I was! (I imagine there's a good bit of anti Tory vote in the mix too)Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
Interesting how low Labour's figure was.1 -
Don't underestimate labour members, who elected Corbyn twice.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good Labour leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=201 -
Sir John Curtice R4
SE England Remain constituencies great targets for LDs and "perfect circumstances" for LDs and they "badly needed to do well in" - need to come up with message which appeals beyond local circumstances for C&A and get national polling up to GE levels.
C&A plus Hartlepool shows changing support of Conservatives from SE Middle Class University educated to Northern working class - and Johnson's appeal does not extend to these voters.
Worst Labour performance in any bye-election1 -
Its high profile announcements about spending money outside L&SE but how much do they add up to ?MaxPB said:
My issue is that every spending pledge for the North, Scotland, Midlands and everywhere else in the country just adds up to higher taxes for people in London and the South East. I don't think I'm alone in that and the voters of C&A have shown this. This government is bribing voters in the North with our tax.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, it's a good article.IanB2 said:
That linked Times article, from which I copied some extracts above, says it very clearlyCasino_Royale said:
I'd say if Brexit was your chief concern you'd have been amongst the 25k that voted for Labour, LD or the Greens at the 2019 election, no? And I note the LDs got only 15k of that.IanB2 said:
Yes and no. Not dissatisfaction with Brexit specifically, but Brexit is part of the Tories’ shift away from the educated middle classes in search of its new constituency, and that new constituency isn’t C & A.Casino_Royale said:
Let me disavow you of something straight away: this by-election isn't about Brexit.Dura_Ace said:
What has been forgotten in the tories' recent fleg strewn auto da fé is that there are still millions of people and therefore voters who fucking hate Brexit. Not even so much the actuality of it but the reactionary, intellectually impoverished and essentially eugenicist worldview it typifies.Cocky_cockney said:
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
See my post on confirmation bias.
Sarah Greens grand vote total is less than that at 21k.
It looks to me like all progressives rallied around her, and turned out, whilst Conservatives sat at home. If they'd all turned out at GE levels it would have been (by my reckoning) very marginal.
The key point is this: if you were virulently anti-Brexit (and there's definitely c.25% of the population like that) you were already voting Lib Dem.
Some core cost of living stuff there. Basically, the Tories need to end the triple lock now (don't care about the manifesto: blame it on Covid.. whatever; they've had a great 10 years) and flip the funding to housing, childcare, and infrastructure improvements.
By the time of the next election the oldies will have got over it, and maybe a few more of working age (particularly in their 30s) will consider Tory.
Add in the lockdown delay and the resultant loss of the vaccine bounce and we can expect this kind of result to become normal in the pissed off English South.
Meanwhile many outside L&SE think that government spending is concentrated in L&SE - HS2, Heathrow, crossrails, new tube lines.1 -
And vice versa.Foxy said:
Never confuse a lack of formal education with a lack of intelligence.Roger said:
I must say the subtlety has been lost on meFoxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
3 -
Betfair settled a few minutes ago.another_richard said:So my good value loser turns into an easy winner.
But why hasn't Betfair settled yet ?0 -
For now they have not made an impact, if Freedom Day continues to be postponed they might start toBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you remind me who you said could get 10-15% in this election as to be honest I had ot heard of them and it looks as if no one else hadHYUFD said:
Labour are getting squeezed, outside London and Wales and the biggest cities in the South Remainers are going LD (and a few to the Greens) and in the North and Midlands Leavers are going ToryPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
Not sure C&A tells us anything about Batley. Pretty different worlds frankly.Philip_Thompson said:
Now that would be interesting.Pulpstar said:I wonder - could Labour end up third in Batley ??
But it's amusing if in a Con/LD seat the LD can take it, while in a Lab/Con seat, Lab not only were to lose it but come third.0 -
The cause was the launch of GB News. Got to be. Look at how close these two events were.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.2 -
Well, Porsche's first ever car (the P1 in 1898) was electric so the heritage is there.Nigelb said:
Yes, that was my point.Dura_Ace said:
Porsche already own 25% of Rimac and have a '911e' on their internal product roadmap.Nigelb said:@Dura_Ace ’s next motor(s) ?
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/rimac-nevera-hypercar-first-drive
If not, the technology will al least trickle down to Porsche in due course.
Who would have predicted a couple of decades back that Porsche's future would be at least partially tied to Croatian engineering ?
They have always said they won't do an electric 911 until it's better than a petrol 911 so I don't think we'll see the 911e until after Euro 7 emissions standards come in 2025. The 992.2 midlife upgrade of the current generation will almost certainly be hybrid as there is already an extra input shaft on the transmission which otherwise makes no sense.1 -
If they are that stupid to pick Rayner then Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs and deserve to.darkage said:
Don't underestimate labour members, who elected Corbyn twice.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good Labour leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
Rayner would finally kill of the Labour Party as the main party of opposition and for that we should be thankful0 -
Betfair have settled.
Do any PBers actually do anything different when they have a nice win ?
Its just more money in a pot to me.2 -
Citation required.Alistair said:
I remember the times you said those figures were use less and only the ONS figures should be used.CarlottaVance said:What could possibly go wrong?
COVID Case Rate
Scotland: 116
London: 71
Just as well Nicola & Useless have told supporters not to travel.....oh...
You may be confusing my comments on vaccination rates, where the NIMS & ONS numbers vary widely, particularly in mobile population cities.0 -
I really hope this kind of complacency is typical of the Tory party as a whole, but I don’t know if it is.Sean_F said:
I’d expect it to revert to the Conservatives at the GE, unless the new MP can build up a very big personal vote.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Factors in Chesham & Amersham 2021
> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)
> demographic & attitudinal shifts
> Brexit - leave versus remain
> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants
> Freedom Day announcement > postponement
> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)
> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons
> by-election blast OR political transformation?
Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.
A realignment on the basis of Brexit/anti-Brexit benefits the Tories because the Brexit vote is more efficiently distributed than the anti-Brexit vote.0 -
You misread my post (being generous). It is the sneerers who are projecting their views of the result onto the electorate and then using that as the basis for attacking the voters. Look at the NIMBY comments on here this morning already (as just one example).IshmaelZ said:
That's a fallacy. There isn't a mindset of voters on the ground, there are multiple mindsets, one per voter. To adopt one of those at the expense of others is not sneering at anyone.Richard_Tyndall said:Morning folks
have to say I am pleased with the result overnight. Seeing Johnson get a bloody nose has certainly brightened my morning.
Lots of people on here with strident, overly confident views on what the causes were and what the implications are - Brexit, HS2, arrogant centralised decision making, the political cycle, NIMBYism, never-ending Lockdown and Tory socialism being just a few I have seen mentioned so far.
I have my own views on what I would like for it to have ben about and what that might mean going forward but I would suggest that no one really knows and all everyone is doing is projecting their own bias on to this result.
Given that OGH was (almost) the only person even considering this was a likely result (I would love to dig out a few of the quotes from as recently as yesterday about how there was no way the Tories would lose) then it might be worth reflecting how poorly the PB mind set reflects the views of the real voters on the ground. I aim this particularly at those on here who have quite rightly attacked the Government (both Labour and Tory) in the past for sneering at the electorate. A fair few comments on here this morning are doing exactly that.
It is all part of the process of trivialising the many and varied concerns of the local voters as a precursor to ignoring them. Rationalise that the voters are the ones being unreasonable and use that as an excuse to carry on regardless with no serious analysis or reflection. We saw Labour do it time and time again when they were in power and Corbynistas do it in the aftermath of 2019. Now it is Tories (and others) on here.1 -
Oh give over.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic
It's a by election.3 -
I must say in my wildest fantasies I had the LDs taking this by a few hundred votes - but an 8,000 majority - wowzers!!1
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The obvious way to square the circle is to keep the tax burden the same but strip the welfare off the retired and "solve" social care, and then use those savings to level up the north.MaxPB said:
My issue is that every spending pledge for the North, Scotland, Midlands and everywhere else in the country just adds up to higher taxes for people in London and the South East. I don't think I'm alone in that and the voters of C&A have shown this. This government is bribing voters in the North with our tax.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, it's a good article.IanB2 said:
That linked Times article, from which I copied some extracts above, says it very clearlyCasino_Royale said:
I'd say if Brexit was your chief concern you'd have been amongst the 25k that voted for Labour, LD or the Greens at the 2019 election, no? And I note the LDs got only 15k of that.IanB2 said:
Yes and no. Not dissatisfaction with Brexit specifically, but Brexit is part of the Tories’ shift away from the educated middle classes in search of its new constituency, and that new constituency isn’t C & A.Casino_Royale said:
Let me disavow you of something straight away: this by-election isn't about Brexit.Dura_Ace said:
What has been forgotten in the tories' recent fleg strewn auto da fé is that there are still millions of people and therefore voters who fucking hate Brexit. Not even so much the actuality of it but the reactionary, intellectually impoverished and essentially eugenicist worldview it typifies.Cocky_cockney said:
This is such a brilliant result for the LibDems and for everyone who hates this nasty and ghastly Alf Garnett leaning tory agenda. Well, everyone who knows that Boris Johnson is a schmuck.
See my post on confirmation bias.
Sarah Greens grand vote total is less than that at 21k.
It looks to me like all progressives rallied around her, and turned out, whilst Conservatives sat at home. If they'd all turned out at GE levels it would have been (by my reckoning) very marginal.
The key point is this: if you were virulently anti-Brexit (and there's definitely c.25% of the population like that) you were already voting Lib Dem.
Some core cost of living stuff there. Basically, the Tories need to end the triple lock now (don't care about the manifesto: blame it on Covid.. whatever; they've had a great 10 years) and flip the funding to housing, childcare, and infrastructure improvements.
By the time of the next election the oldies will have got over it, and maybe a few more of working age (particularly in their 30s) will consider Tory.
Add in the lockdown delay and the resultant loss of the vaccine bounce and we can expect this kind of result to become normal in the pissed off English South.
The Tories can then keep a modest tax and fiscally dry prospectus nationwide. The oldies will still vote for them in 2-3 years time.1 -
Oh to be a fly on the wall in No 10 this morning.
It's a long time since Boris has been on the losing side.
I'd stay out of the way if I were you, Dilyn.0 -
Yes - but it can't be worse than the panic amongst labour in the red wall. The red wall is falling because voters have shifted en masse to a conservative party with a coherent agenda that they support - conservative on social values, to the left on economic issues. By contrast a tory loss to a LD campaign based on regressive local issues (NIMBY, anti HS2) but has no real coherence is best seen as frustrating and annoying, but not existential. It probably justifies a review of campaigning tactics next time around.HYUFD said:
On the swing last night over 200 Tory seats, mainly in the South, would go LD.darkage said:I think this is politics - all fair enough.
The one thing that I picked up from my brief period of political activism is the hatred of labour towards the LDs is absolutely visceral, but this is not necessarily shared by their voters. Labour will not concede any of their strongholds to the LDs. The progressive parties won't seriously unite, they will fight each other to mutual destruction, but the voters are less bothered. Until someone finds a way around this, the tories will largely stay in power; it could almost be a one party state for an entire generation.
This is not a morning for Tory complacency at all, indeed for southern Home Counties Tories it is a morning for panic0 -
We can but hope.HYUFD said:
If they are that stupid to pick Rayner then Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs and deserve to.darkage said:
Don't underestimate labour members, who elected Corbyn twice.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good Labour leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
Rayner would finally kill of the Labour Party as the main party of opposition and for that we should be thankful1 -
Wikipedia's constituency page has also been updated.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Betfair settled a few minutes ago.another_richard said:So my good value loser turns into an easy winner.
But why hasn't Betfair settled yet ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesham_and_Amersham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
0 -
She might and if she did she might finally kill off the Labour Party too.Foxy said:
Whether she would win a GE is down the road a bit, the question is whether she would win the Labour selectorate. I think she would.HYUFD said:
Rayner would be a disaster, Remain Tories would fear her in a way they don't fear Starmer so the LD gains last night would end overnight for as with Corbyn Southern Remain Tories would have to vote Tory not LD to keep out Rayner.Foxy said:
That is why Rayner is in pole position. Labour rules make defenestration very difficult, as we saw with Corbyn, so a leadership contest is most likely following a resignation by SKS. Rayner wants it, and would be acting leader at the time, and is clearly not anathema to the left in the way Starmer is. I rate Rayner, and think her a much more subtle politician than she is often given credit for.RochdalePioneers said:
And replace him with whom? Punters - with the exception of a few dozen very urban raah raah seats - do not want hard left policies and politics. Starmer had one opportunity to expel Jezbollah and thus the cult and he fluffed it. Then he caught Rayner moving against him after Pools, should have sacked her and he fluffed it.CarlottaVance said:Owen has spoken:
The Lib Dems thrashing the Tories in a massively safe Tory seat completely destroys Keir Starmer’s excuse that Labour are only struggling because of a vaccine boost.
If Labour lose the Batley and Spen by election, Starmer will have to resign.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1405765669254144003?s=20
The reason why Labour are in such a mess is that on one hand they have the hard left monster dragging them into the abyss and on the other hand the centre are pussies unable to detach the monster. Keir is frit so I agree will have to go, but to be replaced with whom?
Rayner also polls abysmally, just 25% of voters think Rayner would make a good leader to 47% who think Burnham would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
She is a subtle politician, for example over Brexit she was not associated with efforts to stifle it, so has fairly clean hands.
Following the Tory win in Hartlepool and last night's LD win in Chesham and Amersham and the pattern of the local elections the Tories would become the party of the non big city North and the Midlands, the Liberal Democrats would become the party of the South and Labour would become a rump minor party confined to the poorer parts of London and inner city Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham and south Wales.
We would be back to the pre 1920s0 -
I was only comfortable to bet and lose up to £25.MaxPB said:Also thanks to everyone who pointed out the value loser, shame it's in the low hundreds and not the thousands for me! Still it will be a good weekend.
However, had I been at the count I'd have put hundreds on around midnight and then told everyone here.
Can @bunnco not go to every by-election?0 -
I know the LDs have won an unlikely by-election, but don't get too carried away..Stocky said:Turning to the footy tonight, I mentioned yesterday that Scotland are overpriced IMO to win 1-0 at 26. I now see the price is 29. I've topped up. If I were pricing that I'd go about 12's I think. 14 tops.
1 -
The challenge, as ever, for the LDs is how they scale (a brilliant) by-election result into a GE - they can't. Ed Davey can't visit 600+ constituencies eleven times as he did here. By-elections and general elections are different beasts.ThomasNashe said:
I really hope this kind of complacency is typical of the Tory party as a whole, but I don’t know if it is.Sean_F said:
I’d expect it to revert to the Conservatives at the GE, unless the new MP can build up a very big personal vote.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Factors in Chesham & Amersham 2021
> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)
> demographic & attitudinal shifts
> Brexit - leave versus remain
> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants
> Freedom Day announcement > postponement
> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)
> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons
> by-election blast OR political transformation?
Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.
A realignment on the basis of Brexit/anti-Brexit benefits the Tories because the Brexit vote is more efficiently distributed than the anti-Brexit vote.0 -
The results were broadly the same in those hospitalised and those much less ill.DecrepiterJohnL said:
One crucial question raised by this research is whether brain damage is also seen in mild cases and does this mean we need to start vaccinating children?Foxy said:
A really interesting study, and quite alarming in its long term implications.Nigelb said:Brain imaging before and after COVID-19 in UK Biobank
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1
There is strong evidence for brain-related pathologies in COVID-19, some of which could be a consequence of viral neurotropism. The vast majority of brain imaging studies so far have focused on qualitative, gross pathology of moderate to severe cases, often carried out on hospitalised patients. It remains unknown however whether the impact of COVID-19 can be detected in milder cases, in a quantitative and automated manner, and whether this can reveal a possible mechanism for the spread of the disease. UK Biobank scanned over 40,000 participants before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to invite back in 2021 hundreds of previously-imaged participants for a second imaging visit. Here, we studied the effects of the disease in the brain using multimodal data from 782 participants from the UK Biobank COVID-19 re-imaging study, with 394 participants having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between their two scans. We used structural and functional brain scans from before and after infection, to compare longitudinal brain changes between these 394 COVID-19 patients and 388 controls who were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and interval between scans. We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula. When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole. We further compared COVID-19 patients who had been hospitalised (n=15) with those who had not (n=379), and while results were not significant, we found comparatively similar findings to the COVID-19 vs control group comparison, with, in addition, a greater loss of grey matter in the cingulate cortex, central nucleus of the amygdala and hippocampal cornu ammonis (all |Z| > 3). Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system. Unlike in post hoc disease studies, the availability of pre-infection imaging data helps avoid the danger of pre-existing risk factors or clinical conditions being mis-interpreted as disease effects. Since a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system might be via the olfactory mucosa and the olfactory bulb, these brain imaging results might be the in vivo hallmark of the spread of the disease (or the virus itself) via olfactory and gustatory pathways.
Get vaccinated guys...
The limbic system is most affected, presumably due to direct viral infection of the olfactory nerves. The limbic system isn't just involved in smell though, it is important in formation of memory, attention span, facial recognition and emotional responsiveness. Long term damage here is quite worrying, and perhaps is part of "long covid".
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limbic_system
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Cast your mind back to when Sturgeon said Scotland's infection rate was half of England's using those figures.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.Alistair said:
I remember the times you said those figures were use less and only the ONS figures should be used.CarlottaVance said:What could possibly go wrong?
COVID Case Rate
Scotland: 116
London: 71
Just as well Nicola & Useless have told supporters not to travel.....oh...
You may be confusing my comments on vaccination rates, where the NIMS & ONS numbers vary widely, particularly in mobile population cities.0
