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One thing we thankfully haven’t seen in the UK – a political divide on being vaccinated – politicalb

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, those of us who were ramping the LDs at 15+ are Gods whose every utterance needs to treated as Gospel from now on.

    Buttering up the old man? :smiley:
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, those of us who were ramping the LDs at 15+ are Gods whose every utterance needs to treated as Gospel from now on.

    Indeed
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    How many of us are nobly resisting the temptation to press the cash out button? (Or foolishly!)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.

    And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.

    So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.
  • Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Not sure what to make of the money moves in this instance. There’s less than 50k in total on the Lib Dems

    For the love of God, learn what a betting exchange is. Every bet on an outcome is matched by a bet against it.
    Oh I do, I spend a fortune on betfair. It’s still a surprisingly low figure.
    Spending a lot on it doesn't mean you understand it. You have clearly demonstrated you don't.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,237
    C&A live blog, Bucks Free Press - A Liberal Democrat source said the Chesham and Amersham by-election is “looking very promising” for the party’s candidate Sarah Green.

    The seat has been a Tory stronghold since its creation in 1974 and in 2019 the Conservatives took more than half the vote.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Well, I thought the Lib Dems would win right from the beginning. But let's wait for the fat lady....
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited June 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.

    And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.

    So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.

    Anyone not in the room, or not very well connected to ppl in the room, is crazy to bet on this market since it went in play

    Pft. Note to self
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    rcs1000 said:

    As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.

    And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.

    So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.

    This is actually the first time I've watched Betfair odds in the run up to an event like this.
    There are people clearly placing what I consider wild sums on no more information than they had an hour ago bar the odd rumour.
    Presumably a lot of this is people covering and shuffling positions. But it's still surprising.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    rcs1000 said:

    As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.

    And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.

    So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.

    But weren't Labour narrowly odds-on rather than the 1.01 the LDs currently are?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    BBC, Sky and GB News all just showing recorded programming.

    Nobody reporting live.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    If LDs have won, what are we ascribing it to? HS2? Delay in re-opening? This week's Cummings revelations?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Somebody wants to bet £10,000 on the LDs at 1.03.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,237
    C&A live blog - LD candidate Sarah Green arrives at count; fashion note, she's wearing green blazer.

    "Result imminent"
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Very pleasing, now up 1.5 if Tory, 1.3k if of. Has result been announced I'm just on Betfair :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a reminder, in 2006 the LibDems won the Dunfermline by-election.

    And Betfair was completely wrong indicating a Labour hold, even as the returning officer was speaking.

    So I wouldn't risk my house on this yet.

    This is actually the first time I've watched Betfair odds in the run up to an event like this.
    There are people clearly placing what I consider wild sums on no more information than they had an hour ago bar the odd rumour.
    Presumably a lot of this is people covering and shuffling positions. But it's still surprising.
    There was a lot of opportunity for a bot to play with the bet / lay prices, given that a Cons lay is functionally a LD bet. And there were some genuine arb opps today.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    £3.8k matched on LDs @ 1.01

    Surely can’t be wrong
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Live now on Sky
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'll win about 80 quid. Should have put more on, that's an eternal problem though
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited June 2021
    Well done @MikeSmithson @rcs1000 and the others who tipped the LDs at long odds
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited June 2021
    LD 21,517

    Con 13,489

    Green 1,480

    Lab 622

    Reform 414
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Massive margin as well.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667

    If LDs have won, what are we ascribing it to? HS2? Delay in re-opening? This week's Cummings revelations?

    None of those. It is the betrayal by the Top Tories - and their failure to take any notice of what local people think. "Take back control"...? But we want to take back control ourselves - not to give all powers to a centralised dictatorship.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    If LDs have won, what are we ascribing it to? HS2? Delay in re-opening? This week's Cummings revelations?

    I think that support for further is broad but shallow. While opposition is narrow but deep.

    Those who want to see restrictions lifted are more motivated to go out and vote, and the LDs carefully positioned themselves (Demand Better) to benefit from that. Plus a bit of HS2 and the local hospital
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    MikeL said:

    Con 13,489

    LD 21,517

    Green 1,480

    WTF?
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited June 2021
    People in the se don’t like being levelled down in order for those not in the se to be levelled up, I recon.

    Anyway, I completely misread c&a.

    Stonking majority for the LDs
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Green 3rd
    Lab 4th

    Green more than double Lab!!!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    MikeL said:

    BBC, Sky and GB News all just showing recorded programming.

    Nobody reporting live.

    This has become the incredible disappointing 'norm' in recent by-elections, what on earth is the point of 24 hour rolling news stations in the UK if they don't even bother to cover this live?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Batley & Spen
    Conservative 1.34
    Labour 3.3
    Workers Party of George Galloway 80
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,237
    Number of votes recorded:

    Green - 1,480
    Rejoin EU - 101
    Conservative - 13,489
    Lib Dems - 21,517
    Breakthrough - 197
    Freedom Alliance - 134
    Labour - 622
    Reform UK - 414
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited June 2021
    MikeL said:

    Green 3rd
    Lab 4th

    Green more than double Lab!!!

    Well done to those who backed Greens to be third.
  • F*** me. So, not as close as people were expecting, then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Well.

    The LDs winning is not a shock.

    The scale of their victory, on the other hand, is utterly astonishing.

    They got more than 50% more votes than the Conservative Party. That's staggering.

    Conservative voters stayed home, and Labour voters - on mass - tactically voted LibDem.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Just over 1.3k up, given my max exposure was about £190 not too shabby.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    rcs1000 said:

    Well.

    The LDs winning is not a shock.

    The scale of their victory, on the other hand, is utterly astonishing.

    They got more than 50% more votes than the Conservative Party. That's staggering.

    Conservative voters stayed home, and Labour voters - on mass - tactically voted LibDem.

    There must have been some direct con>ld switching, too
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con 13,489

    LD 21,517

    Green 1,480

    WTF?
    Why does that surprise you, Robert?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Congratulations to the Lib Dems

    Hopefully wake call to the conservatives
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Labour 622.
    2017 Labour were second on 11,374.
    2019 Labour came third on 7,166.

    Keir Starmer!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    Not sure what to say about B&S now. Clearly Con voters not that keen to vote Con. But not obvious that Labour are ready to take advantage.
    Still, I'm on Lab at about 3, I think. I'm not inclined to top up.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Boris’s voter coalition has just crumbled
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Hahaha, LDs winning C&A while Lab losing B&S will be an excellent result for politcal bettors.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    ClippP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con 13,489

    LD 21,517

    Green 1,480

    WTF?
    Why does that surprise you, Robert?
    I thought the LDs had a good chance. But I thought that whatever the result was, it'd be pretty close.

    The LDs got more than 3 votes for every 2 Conservative votes. That's a landslide.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    I was in C and A last week. There was a huge effort by the Lib Dem team both local and national. My feeling was that we would win by 3000. But people like to be on the winning team.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,237
    Two Englands.

    Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.

    Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    I have a single conclusion from this: the LDs are largely detoxified from a Lab tactical voting point of view.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,237
    NEW THRED
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    That result means that the entirety of Con-held Remania is in play. Witney, Henley, and Maidenhead all suddenly looking very shakey.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    BBC news web site has not woken up yet. Sky has.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    rcs1000 said:

    ClippP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con 13,489

    LD 21,517

    Green 1,480

    WTF?
    Why does that surprise you, Robert?
    I thought the LDs had a good chance. But I thought that whatever the result was, it'd be pretty close.
    The LDs got more than 3 votes for every 2 Conservative votes. That's a landslide.
    But the Conservatives took the seat for granted, assumed that people who had voted Conservative before would continue to do so, and seemed to think that they could get away with murder (well, cronyism, corruption, incompetence...) The new scheme for planning was just the last straw. Feedback suggested there was a strong mood in favour of sending a warning to the government.

    And so the next question is - how much longer will Johnson last?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    darkage said:

    The posts by @nico67 FPT have really angered me.

    Antivax bullshit.

    See also @darkage on this thread.

    Very, very sad to see.

    I've had the vaccine. I just respect peoples reasons for not having it.
    @Anabobazina By all means be upset by what I am saying. I just find it annoying that there is this immense social pressure to get vaccinated. It comes across as a bit irrational and wholly at odds with a liberal society with free debate. This should be a personal choice and this should be respected. The more compulsion that is put on people the more conspiracy theories and opposition is likely to expand. It seems like another road to biosurveillance hell.

    The best argument is that vaccination is not perfect but it is the best way of controlling the virus on the known scientific evidence, accepting that it poses some risks in itself but these are less than the virus.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Skim read. Hard to find the actual judgment. Did find this in para 79:

    Faute d'autre elements la demande a) de l'UE est non fondée et elle en sera déboutée.

    I read this as "In the absence of other issue, the EU's complaint a) is unfounded and will be [denied?]
This discussion has been closed.