politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft nationa
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Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Ed Miliband really did say "I'm going to the White House because I want to be prime minister of Britain in less than 10 months". Genuinely
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
"Ed, are you going to the White House to discuss the serious international situation"? "Nah. I just want to be PM".
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Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!0 -
ARSE and BJESUS form the proverbial buns of the sandwich that is PB seat predictions:JackW said:Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown
12 hours 12 minutes 12 seconds
http://goo.gl/h6wlj90 -
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
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England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury0
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Perhaps Mr Blair can offer you some advice?SeanT said:OK that's the last time I blog about Israel/Palestine, at least for a while.
Hatred in stereo.
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Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)0 -
mh17 flight path
http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh17/#3d6095b
does appear to cross the area along the eastern border where Ukraine forces are supposed to be cut off (assuming map is roughly correct)
http://s30.postimg.org/z7io0x8ap/Br1o_P4_ACIAE5_Xd_G.jpg
also some posts here
http://www.politicsforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=155374&start=5540
which seem to be talking about these Ukraine army units that are apparently cut off
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I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
We know from polling that Kippers aren't primarily motivated by Europe.Charles said:
I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
Interesting. Bush was not nresponsible for the CRA - and even the man who introduced it, Carter, was not responsible for later mismanagement. That prize goes to the Clinton Administration. How come you blame Bush - is he the republican version of Thatcher for Democrats?FalseFlag said:The causes of the financial crisis are multiple:
Clinton era deregulation, abolition of Glass Steagall etc.
The 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) which George Bush jumped on to win Hispanic votes but only ensured the 'minority mortgage meltdown' or subprime crisis.
Those countries that ran unsustainable public spending and failed to curb financial sector excess through regulation or interest rates (Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Labour's Britain).0 -
kle4 The election will be determined by Tory-UKIP defectors. If all those who voted Tory in 2010 do so again they will almost certainly be largest party thanks to the 10-15% of 2010 LDs who are now voting for Cameron. So even if not one voter presently supporting Labour switches
to the LDs or Tories, Labour may not necessarily win most votes0 -
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?NickPalmer said:
A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)isam said:
The problem with that nick, is the reason you think that way is because you are left wing and not religious. Strictly religious people do see things in terms of division between right and wrong, that's where the paradox lies; the empathy, if it exists, which I doubt, is one sided
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?0 -
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.0 -
What do you think they are motivated by?Hugh said:
We know from polling that Kippers aren't primarily motivated by Europe.Charles said:
I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
The logic is they vote for what they believe in, it's called having principles.Charles said:
I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,0 -
It's quite simple, Charles. The Kippers (say they) don't give a tuppenny toss about GE2015; their aim is to get rid of Cam whom they see as insufficiently Kipperish and replace him with someone more amenable to their views.Charles said:
I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!
Quite what this looks like policy-wise or even personality-wise I'm not 100% sure.0 -
This seems to me to be a silly unjustified comment. The original remarks by Charles are very sensible.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
Another old joke! Don't be an Arse Jack.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!0 -
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
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Topping The nightmare scenario for many would be Ed Miliband becomes PM and Liam Fox or Owen Patterson becomes leader of the opposition, perhaps the only circumstances which would allow for a LD revival0
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Only if 'right' is merely a triangulation of two opposing views.SeanT said:
I've got Zionists accusing me of being an apologist for Islamism and pro-Palestinians accusing me of being blinkered to Israeli crimes.RobD said:
Are you pissing everyone off?!SeanT said:OK that's the last time I blog about Israel/Palestine, at least for a while.
Hatred in stereo.
Guess I must have got it just about right, then. However it's probably not worth the hassle.
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Nick is quite good at those throwaway lines; if I had the time or could be bothered I would find a couple as examples; one about Nicky Morgan just now I seem to remember, and another about a Kipper policy on the NHS.isam said:
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?NickPalmer said:
A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)isam said:
The problem with that nick, is the reason you think that way is because you are left wing and not religious. Strictly religious people do see things in terms of division between right and wrong, that's where the paradox lies; the empathy, if it exists, which I doubt, is one sided
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?
Other people might call them slurs; I wouldn't possibly.0 -
Looks like Yellow/Green crossover might come sooner than Red/Blue crossover!0
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The old ones are the best. As in people as in humour.BobaFett said:
Another old joke! Don't be an Arse Jack.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
JackW is 109 ....
That's a golden oldie too ....
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Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.0 -
Agreed which results in.............Pulpstar said:All the polls are consistent with a Labour lead of ~ 4%
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EMICIPM?bigjohnowls said:
Agreed which results in.............Pulpstar said:All the polls are consistent with a Labour lead of ~ 4%
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I would, the closer we get to the election the more we see of his true characterTOPPING said:
Nick is quite good at those throwaway lines; if I had the time or could be bothered I would find a couple as examples; one about Nicky Morgan just now I seem to remember, and another about a Kipper policy on the NHS.isam said:
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?NickPalmer said:
A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)isam said:
The problem with that nick, is the reason you think that way is because you are left wing and not religious. Strictly religious people do see things in terms of division between right and wrong, that's where the paradox lies; the empathy, if it exists, which I doubt, is one sided
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?
Other people might call them slurs; I wouldn't possibly.0 -
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.0 -
It's a shame - I don't know whether it's because he fears that a Lab high-up is watching what he posts or whether he thinks he is being clever in generating or propagating a new narrative or whether it is (just) a character weakness.nigel4england said:
I would, the closer we get to the election the more we see of his true characterTOPPING said:
Nick is quite good at those throwaway lines; if I had the time or could be bothered I would find a couple as examples; one about Nicky Morgan just now I seem to remember, and another about a Kipper policy on the NHS.isam said:
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?NickPalmer said:
A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)isam said:
The problem with that nick, is the reason you think that way is because you are left wing and not religious. Strictly religious people do see things in terms of division between right and wrong, that's where the paradox lies; the empathy, if it exists, which I doubt, is one sided
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?
Other people might call them slurs; I wouldn't possibly.
He is (usually) an admirably sensible PB contributor, not to say PPC I'm sure, so there really is no need for it.0 -
A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?
>How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?<
Er, because you were discussing my friends who I've known for a decade, and I don't think you know them at all?
I was teasing you (hence the smiley) for being sceptical that I had empathetic friends with strict beliefs. Since you don't know them, you must have a strict belief that people with strict beliefs are never empathetic. No?
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2015 trickiest one yet though.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
What I dont get is that your latest ARSE had Tories only a few seats more than LAB. Why are you so certain Ed will never be PM, Your ARSE is close to EICIPM so why such certainty. Obviously you could make significant money at odds against Tories most seats.
Presumably you are backing that position?0 -
Freggles Ashcroft has tweeted Greens now at 6/1 to overtake the LDs next year and force them into 5th0
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I really like Stokes too and have high hopes for him, but his batting has been abysmal this summer. I think he is a better bowler that Jordan though and with Ali at six then Stokes at eight is OK, he will come good with the bat soon. Botham reckons Broad might be carrying an injury, might be a good time to give him a rest.BobaFett said:
Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.0 -
Possibly I haven't checked!!RobD said:
EMICIPM?bigjohnowls said:
Agreed which results in.............Pulpstar said:All the polls are consistent with a Labour lead of ~ 4%
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If ARSE is wrong and we get PM Milliband .... god help us.Tykejohnno said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Ed Miliband really did say "I'm going to the White House because I want to be prime minister of Britain in less than 10 months". Genuinely
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
"Ed, are you going to the White House to discuss the serious international situation"? "Nah. I just want to be PM".0 -
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?NickPalmer said:A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?
>How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?<
Er, because you were discussing my friends who I've known for a decade, and I don't think you know them at all?
I was teasing you (hence the smiley) for being sceptical that I had empathetic friends with strict beliefs. Since you don't know them, you must have a strict belief that people with strict beliefs are never empathetic. No?
Obviously I don't know your friends personally, but we are talking in broad terms here, and it seems to me thât people with strict religious beliefs are more likely to be dogmatic than cultural relativists.
0 -
Really Bob .... you should have been around here ploughing through the Labour drivel in the year before the election.BobaFett said:
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
It gave Comedy Central a run for its money ....
0 -
I think the high point was in 2007, when even Labour ministers thought Gordon Brown would win an increased majority.JackW said:
Really Bob .... you should have been around here ploughing through the Labour drivel in the year before the election.BobaFett said:
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
It gave Comedy Central a run for its money ....
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
I am sure quite a few of us are watching your ARSE with great interest.JackW said:
Off to get my coat...........0 -
The Times :
"Tony Blair hit back at claims that he has become a member of Britain’s super-rich yesterday by insisting that he is actually worth less than £20 million.
The former prime minister said he was not motivated by money and that suggestions his wealth had reached £100 million were “greatly exaggerated”.
That's alright then.0 -
It looks like Russia is fighting back against the accusations.
Military aircraft DID escort MH-17
Plane DID change its course inexplicably
Ukraine had BUK systems deployed in the area -why?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=145
This is potentially explosive (unless you read the UK press, which probably won't even cover it).0 -
Now wheres that link from the Indy in 2000 saying there'll be no more snow at all in the UK!TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the high point was in 2007, when even Labour ministers thought Gordon Brown would win an increased majority.JackW said:
Really Bob .... you should have been around here ploughing through the Labour drivel in the year before the election.BobaFett said:
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
It gave Comedy Central a run for its money ....
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
You miss the obvious which is that we will only vote for a party which wishes us to leave the EU. Anything else is a false hope. Why should we vote for a man who will do absolutely everything in his power to make sure that the one thing we want above all else will never happen?Charles said:
I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arrogance of Tories who think they deserve votes from people they have scorned or ignored for years. If you want UKIP support then change your policies. Otherwise you deserve to lose.Charles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
A wildcard choice might be to let Root skipper the side. Graeme Smith skippered the Saffers at a similarly tender age.nigel4england said:
I really like Stokes too and have high hopes for him, but his batting has been abysmal this summer. I think he is a better bowler that Jordan though and with Ali at six then Stokes at eight is OK, he will come good with the bat soon. Botham reckons Broad might be carrying an injury, might be a good time to give him a rest.BobaFett said:
Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.0 -
I thought so, although that is, I'm told, rarely a good indication.SeanT said:
I've got Zionists accusing me of being an apologist for Islamism and pro-Palestinians accusing me of being blinkered to Israeli crimes.RobD said:
Are you pissing everyone off?!SeanT said:OK that's the last time I blog about Israel/Palestine, at least for a while.
Hatred in stereo.
Guess I must have got it just about right, then.
Is there any circumstance whereby all those who voted Tory in 2010 would do so again? A tough ask.HYUFD said:kle4 The election will be determined by Tory-UKIP defectors. If all those who voted Tory in 2010 do so again they will almost certainly be largest party thanks to the 10-15% of 2010 LDs who are now voting for Cameron. So even if not one voter presently supporting Labour switches to the LDs or Tories, Labour may not necessarily win most votes
0 -
Steven Finn will come back at some point... Maybe for Broad if he is injured.nigel4england said:
I really like Stokes too and have high hopes for him, but his batting has been abysmal this summer. I think he is a better bowler that Jordan though and with Ali at six then Stokes at eight is OK, he will come good with the bat soon. Botham reckons Broad might be carrying an injury, might be a good time to give him a rest.BobaFett said:
Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.
I think Finn has the potential to be our most dangerous bowler.
Give Foster a chance for three tests, he's probably the best keeper we have had for the last decade
I bumped into him in faces gants hill last year and asked him why he didn't appeal when he caught Steve Waugh inAustralia... Lack of belief cos no one else went up and he was about 20 odd... If only...0 -
Did he take a Selfie with Obama. Thank God Dave isn't so shallow LOLTykejohnno said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Ed Miliband really did say "I'm going to the White House because I want to be prime minister of Britain in less than 10 months". Genuinely
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
"Ed, are you going to the White House to discuss the serious international situation"? "Nah. I just want to be PM".0 -
You mean UKippers have not been swayed by the vague hints from periphery Tory figures that Cameron might, in the fullness of time and should the moons be right, even have to eventually campaign for out if the super serious negotiations - which we are assured will do the job - do not get us what we want? I guess you just cannot please some people.Richard_Tyndall said:
You miss the obvious which is that we will only vote for a party which wishes us to leave the EU. Anything else is a false hope. Why should we vote for a man who will do absolutely everything in his power to make sure that the one thing we want above all else will never happen?Charles said:
I didn't say Kippers are stupid, or the Tories are on holiday. I don't understand their logic, which suggest that they don't care about policy outcomes (vs bashing Cameron) or that they don't particularly highly weight the EU as a driver of voting.Hugh said:
Tory arrogance shining through, thinking Kippers are stupid or Tories on holiday.Charles said:
What a strange response.Richard_Tyndall said:
The arroganceCharles said:
UKIP are looking like a classic example of cutting off their nose to spite their face.HurstLlama said:
Telling someone that the best way to get something they want is to vote for a party committed to the opposite may not be the easiest sell in the world.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks to UKIP, everything will soon be Euro-blue with gold stars on it. Exit not an option....Richard_Tyndall said:
It will soon be blue as it replaces the pale lilac immitation that is the current Tory partyBond_James_Bond said:These polls are clearly completely meaningless.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
I have a vague memory that the Tories used that poster in the past (Scottish devolution maybe?) but couldn't find it with a quick google
The Tories don't "deserve" votes as of right from anyone. - they need to convince them to lend them their support.
But it's quite simple: a vote for UKIP will, in most cases, reduce the chance of a Tory-led government after 2015. Assuming that a UKIP majority government is not a plausible outcome then a vote for UKIP will reduce the chance of a referendum on EU membership in the next Parliament.
If may be, of course, that EU membership is not the primary reason to vote UKIP. If that is the case, then the above logic, will not impact voting intention
Blue on blue though, carry on, what a delight!0 -
@RobD
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html0 -
I agree, however having seen a couple of his posts earlier in the year I can't believe he is an ex/prospective MP.TOPPING said:
It's a shame - I don't know whether it's because he fears that a Lab high-up is watching what he posts or whether he thinks he is being clever in generating or propagating a new narrative or whether it is (just) a character weakness.nigel4england said:
I would, the closer we get to the election the more we see of his true characterTOPPING said:
Nick is quite good at those throwaway lines; if I had the time or could be bothered I would find a couple as examples; one about Nicky Morgan just now I seem to remember, and another about a Kipper policy on the NHS.isam said:
How do you know how strict peoples beliefs are any better than I do?NickPalmer said:
A strict belief in anything is dangerous IMO. My point is that not many people are half as strict as you might think from their appearance etc. or indeed as they think they are.You probably shouldn't try to second-guess me on whether my friends are empathetic because it doesn't fit your ideas. One might think that you had excessively strict beliefs yourself. :-)isam said:
The problem with that nick, is the reason you think that way is because you are left wing and not religious. Strictly religious people do see things in terms of division between right and wrong, that's where the paradox lies; the empathy, if it exists, which I doubt, is one sided
People like Roy Jenkins and Lord Lester, founders of multiculturalism, are on record as saying that it didn't occur to them that people that came to the UK wouldn't share the laissez faire secularist approach to religion and belief
What are you getting at with the strange last line there? My strict beliefs on what?
Other people might call them slurs; I wouldn't possibly.
He is (usually) an admirably sensible PB contributor, not to say PPC I'm sure, so there really is no need for it.
After the pension changes in the Budget he made it clear he had no understanding of how pensions work. This may seem trivial to him but it matters hugely to his prospective constituents.
Then he posted something about how his Aunt was complaining her personal details were given out by the DVLA and questioned how that could be, yet he was part if the government that voted for it.
He has also said he has no particular love of this country and in fact seems to prefer Scandinavia, so Nick why exactly are you standing once again?
What difference do you think you can make to the lives of the everyday man in Broxtowe? What good do you think you can do? Or are you actually standing for your own ego?0 -
Whereas in 2015 either myself or JackW will be seriously wrong.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the high point was in 2007, when even Labour ministers thought Gordon Brown would win an increased majority.JackW said:
Really Bob .... you should have been around here ploughing through the Labour drivel in the year before the election.BobaFett said:
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
It gave Comedy Central a run for its money ....
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
We will see who. Interesting 10 months0 -
*titter*TheScreamingEagles said:@RobD
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 26s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 34, LAB 38, LD 9, UKIP 110 -
Not so.bigjohnowls said:
2015 trickiest one yet though.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
What I dont get is that your latest ARSE had Tories only a few seats more than LAB. Why are you so certain Ed will never be PM, Your ARSE is close to EICIPM so why such certainty. Obviously you could make significant money at odds against Tories most seats.
Presumably you are backing that position?
The last ARSE on 8th July was Con 307 Lab - 282
The other factor I think you ignore is that ARSE is a projection for May 2015 and not one for the present as other projections follow.
The certainty is simple. So far my model has correctly noted a number of indicators that help to make up the analysis. On that basis no projection has then found a Labour lead in seats or on the current situation is it likely to.
0 -
I see Ed M has met Obama.
Is this wise I ask you? Did he smell him on camera?
twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/491306610577641472/photo/10 -
As Mike said last week, the polling is going to be volatile for the next 3 months.bigjohnowls said:
Whereas in 2015 either myself or JackW will be seriously wrong.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the high point was in 2007, when even Labour ministers thought Gordon Brown would win an increased majority.JackW said:
Really Bob .... you should have been around here ploughing through the Labour drivel in the year before the election.BobaFett said:
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
It gave Comedy Central a run for its money ....
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
We will see who. Interesting 10 months
And in the last parliament, the Tories lead started slipping from January 2010 onwards.0 -
Tonights YG LAB 347 CON 259 LD 18 Other 26 (ukpr)
ED is crap is PM0 -
YG 4pt lead consistent with position since March0
-
Wasn't it the Danish PM who asked for the selfie ?(Related to the kinnocks) shallow is when your popularity as a leader is p1$$ poor and you think a talk and a photo with Obama will help and you think it matters -lol up against world events,like missing a very important commons statement,just imagine if that was Cameron -lolbigjohnowls said:
Did he take a Selfie with Obama. Thank God Dave isn't so shallow LOLTykejohnno said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Ed Miliband really did say "I'm going to the White House because I want to be prime minister of Britain in less than 10 months". Genuinely
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
"Ed, are you going to the White House to discuss the serious international situation"? "Nah. I just want to be PM".
;-)
0 -
I've been saying exactly the same thing, and five is a good place to skipper the side from. Being out in the field when the last wicket have put on 100 must be depressing and then you have to come out and bet two overs later. I've also quoted Smith as an example, that didn't work out too badly!BobaFett said:
A wildcard choice might be to let Root skipper the side. Graeme Smith skippered the Saffers at a similarly tender age.nigel4england said:
I really like Stokes too and have high hopes for him, but his batting has been abysmal this summer. I think he is a better bowler that Jordan though and with Ali at six then Stokes at eight is OK, he will come good with the bat soon. Botham reckons Broad might be carrying an injury, might be a good time to give him a rest.BobaFett said:
Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.0 -
snip.. I was looking at 2013!bigjohnowls said:YG 4pt lead consistent with position since March
0 -
One for Scrapheap and Southam
Telegraph Football @TeleFootball
Tottenham eye £25m Antoine Griezmann as successor to Gareth Bale - @Matt_Law_DT reports http://fw.to/6dSzjNY0 -
0
-
ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
Yes so if 13 seats go LAB instead of Tory. Your projection has moved to Ed in recent ARSES has it not?JackW said:
Not so.bigjohnowls said:
2015 trickiest one yet though.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
What I dont get is that your latest ARSE had Tories only a few seats more than LAB. Why are you so certain Ed will never be PM, Your ARSE is close to EICIPM so why such certainty. Obviously you could make significant money at odds against Tories most seats.
Presumably you are backing that position?
The last ARSE on 8th July was Con 307 Lab - 282
The other factor I think you ignore is that ARSE is a projection for May 2015 and not one for the present as other projections follow.
The certainty is simple. So far my model has correctly noted a number of indicators that help to make up the analysis. On that basis no projection has then found a Labour lead in seats or on the current situation is it likely to.0 -
Let the guy grow with the side. Could be an interesting move...nigel4england said:
I've been saying exactly the same thing, and five is a good place to skipper the side from. Being out in the field when the last wicket have put on 100 must be depressing and then you have to come out and bet two overs later. I've also quoted Smith as an example, that didn't work out too badly!BobaFett said:
A wildcard choice might be to let Root skipper the side. Graeme Smith skippered the Saffers at a similarly tender age.nigel4england said:
I really like Stokes too and have high hopes for him, but his batting has been abysmal this summer. I think he is a better bowler that Jordan though and with Ali at six then Stokes at eight is OK, he will come good with the bat soon. Botham reckons Broad might be carrying an injury, might be a good time to give him a rest.BobaFett said:
Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.0 -
So did shallow ed,you both in same boat then - lolSmarmeron said:@Tykejohnno
I missed the statement as well.
What has Dave decided to do? Have another meeting?
0 -
I'm sure you'll get over your disappointment by early 2016 ....bigjohnowls said:
Whereas in 2015 either myself or JackW will be seriously wrong.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the high point was in 2007, when even Labour ministers thought Gordon Brown would win an increased majority.JackW said:
Really Bob .... you should have been around here ploughing through the Labour drivel in the year before the election.BobaFett said:
I think most Labourites were quite clear that Brown had no chance in 2010 Jack.JackW said:
I'm afraid any PBer that contravenes the evidence of the veracity of my ARSE is by definition an idiot.Hugh said:
Careful, PBMODERATOR warned me the other night for calling someone an idiot.JackW said:
I can't help feeling that with you posting here tonight that some village is missing its idiot.Hugh said:
Yeah so you keep saying.JackW said:
Surprisingly your ever-changing predictions are always better for the Tories than the consensus. Can't think why.
Always hilarious though, that countdown thing you do, lol! Do it again!
(When Socrates said that the UK spends £350billion a year on teaching English to immigrants)
I'm used to dealing with flat earthers like you and frankly you're void of practical use. When I noted a decade back that IDS was tending to the barking as a contender for PM I was heavily attacked by Tories here. The same extended in 2005 with Michael Howard.
Strangely LibDems were not enamoured of me when I said Charles Kennedy had let the party down as a lazy drunk and Ming Campbell couldn't carry the party to a general election.
Labour partisans abused me for contending Gordon would never be returned as PM in 2010 and the fact that a hung parliament loomed. Now they also rage that I say Ed is doomed.
In all these cases I was correct and the reputation of my ARSE is unsurpassed.
It gave Comedy Central a run for its money ....
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
We will see who. Interesting 10 months
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0
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I don't even think Ed had to chase POTUS into the kitchen
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10981593/Ed-Miliband-meets-Barack-Obama-at-the-White-House.html
Ed really wants to stay in the EU, just like the Americans want.
"Mr Miliband promised Mr Obama that a Labour government would stand "unambiguously" for Britain to remain in Europe amid growing fears in the White House that the UK could leave the EU"
""I'm going to the White House because I want to be prime minister of Britain in less than 10 months. It's incredibly important, and I think this is what the British people would want, to have a prime minister who works closely with the US," Mr Miliband said before the meeting."
Yes Ed, slavishly follow America just like god old Tony, what could go wrong?
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Jimmy Anderson?BobaFett said:
A wildcard choice might be to let Root skipper the side. Graeme Smith skippered the Saffers at a similarly tender age.nigel4england said:
I really like Stokes too and have high hopes for him, but his batting has been abysmal this summer. I think he is a better bowler that Jordan though and with Ali at six then Stokes at eight is OK, he will come good with the bat soon. Botham reckons Broad might be carrying an injury, might be a good time to give him a rest.BobaFett said:
Effing depressing day at Lord's, seeing us blown away like schoolboys to a bit of naughty bowling from India. All credit to our opponents - men against boys.isam said:
I thought exactly that. No need for big upheaval, let Cook just bat.nigel4england said:
Jumped before he was pushed more like.Tykejohnno said:England wicketkeeper Matt Prior stands down from Test cricket for the rest of the summer due to injury
Bring in Read or Foster, let them captain the team and remove the burden from Cook.
Jordan for stokes maybe, and that'll do,
I like Stokes but sadly he cannot continue given his recent batting record, which reads like a display on a doughnut stall.
Cook has to lose the captaincy and Foster deserves a go with the gloves. I suspect that the ECB may go for Buttler though due to the modern theory that the keeper has to be a batter.0 -
@Tykejohnno
Not me, I am a Pragmatic Communist. but posturing is about all anyone in Europe can do.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-284080370 -
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
More on shallow ed - lol
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_
Ed Miliband may come to regret missing House of Commons debate about #Gaza & #MH17 for a trip to Washington. Free hit for David Cameron
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The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
Not in your original post, if you look at it - you expressed scepticism about the specific friends I was talking about. That's why I was teasing you, and it was genuinely meant to be a joke. Let's move on?isam said:
Obviously I don't know your friends personally, but we are talking in broad terms here...
In reply to Nigel - briefly, I mostly think we'd be a happier society if we were in a number of respects more like Scandinavia. I don't think constituents would be surprised to hear it's what I think. They haven't found a UKIP candidate yet - perhaps you'd like to have a go and we can see what people in the constituency prefer?
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Ed looking 'presidential' in Washington tonight in front of the Lincoln Memorial on BBC news, with Ed, Obama and Hollande in charge next year Putin and ISIS will be quaking in their boots!0
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Looks like it might be a pic of the Royal Baby.. not too exciting.TheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
OhRobD said:
Looks like it might be a pic of the Royal Baby.. not too exciting.TheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
But then twitter could be lying to me.TheScreamingEagles said:
OhRobD said:
Looks like it might be a pic of the Royal Baby.. not too exciting.TheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
According to twitter Prior is standing down0
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bigjohnowls said:JackW said:bigjohnowls said:JackW said:Hugh said:JackW said:
Clearly so.Hugh said:
Yes so if 13 seats go LAB instead of Tory. Your projection has moved to Ed in recent ARSES has it not?JackW said:
Not so.Hugh said:
2015 trickiest one yet though.JackW said:Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown
What I dont get is that your latest ARSE had Tories only a few seats more than LAB. Why are you so certain Ed will never be PM, Your ARSE is close to EICIPM so why such certainty. Obviously you could make significant money at odds against Tories most seats.
Presumably you are backing that position?
The last ARSE on 8th July was Con 307 Lab - 282
The other factor I think you ignore is that ARSE is a projection for May 2015 and not one for the present as other projections follow.
The certainty is simple. So far my model has correctly noted a number of indicators that help to make up the analysis. On that basis no projection has then found a Labour lead in seats or on the current situation is it likely to.
The moves have been at the margin. A notable feature of my ARSE projection has been the stability of the numbers within a narrow range. However this shouldn't be too much of a surprise as the factors within the projection have so far been correctly forecast.
.................................................................................
Clearly so.
The moves have been at the margin. A notable feature of my ARSE projection has been the stability of the numbers within a narrow range. However this shouldn't be too much of a surprise as the factors within the projection have so far been correctly forecast.0 -
I would love to but I think UKIP have enough candidates with an, Erm, colourful past.NickPalmer said:
Not in your original post, if you look at it - you expressed scepticism about the specific friends I was talking about. That's why I was teasing you, and it was genuinely meant to be a joke. Let's move on?isam said:
Obviously I don't know your friends personally, but we are talking in broad terms here...
In reply to Nigel - briefly, I mostly think we'd be a happier society if we were in a number of respects more like Scandinavia. I don't think constituents would be surprised to hear it's what I think. They haven't found a UKIP candidate yet - perhaps you'd like to have a go and we can see what people in the constituency prefer?
Thanks for the reply though, I appreciate it.0 -
Pictures of babies bring you out in cold sweats for me its the monthly ICMTheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
Have Tottenham just paid £30m for him?TheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday0 -
@bigjohnowls
Clearly so.
The moves have been at the margin. A notable feature of my ARSE projection has been the stability of the numbers within a narrow range. However this shouldn't be too much of a surprise as the factors within the projection have so far been correctly forecast.0 -
It's when I occasionally edit the site, we get the odd embargoed poll before it is published.bigjohnowls said:
Pictures of babies bring you out in cold sweats for me its the monthly ICMTheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday
And I'm always scared I'm going to suffer from premature posting, and post the thread before the embargo ends.0 -
Do you ever get the daily You Gov before 21.55 Sun Politics tweet TSE?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's when I occasionally edit the site, we get the odd embargoed poll before it is published.bigjohnowls said:
Pictures of babies bring you out in cold sweats for me its the monthly ICMTheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday
And I'm always scared I'm going to suffer from premature posting, and post the thread before the embargo ends.0 -
Paywall - Dominic Grieve may have just given Ed Miliband a load of ammunition
David Cameron risks comparisons with President Putin of Russia if he presses ahead with “foolish” plans to give MPs a veto over human rights court rulings, the man whom he dismissed as attorney-general says in a speech to be given today (tuesday)0 -
If it is war with Russia, I am horrified!
I need more time to kiss my arse goodbye :-)0 -
Seems like a lot of cash for a recently retired England wicketkeeper ?!?nigel4england said:
Have Tottenham just paid £30m for him?TheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday
0 -
Actually it's on the front page of the Independent website!Luckyguy1983 said:It looks like Russia is fighting back against the accusations.
Military aircraft DID escort MH-17
Plane DID change its course inexplicably
Ukraine had BUK systems deployed in the area -why?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=145
This is potentially explosive (unless you read the UK press, which probably won't even cover it).0 -
Nope.bigjohnowls said:
Do you ever get the daily You Gov before 21.55 Sun Politics tweet TSE?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's when I occasionally edit the site, we get the odd embargoed poll before it is published.bigjohnowls said:
Pictures of babies bring you out in cold sweats for me its the monthly ICMTheScreamingEagles said:
The word embargo makes me break out in cold sweats.RobD said:
Apparently (according to Twitter) Sky broke it.... not sure what it is thoughTheScreamingEagles said:ooooh
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 25s
Some of the papers will be at 2230, as there is a special embargo in place #tomorrowspaperstoday
And I'm always scared I'm going to suffer from premature posting, and post the thread before the embargo ends.0
This discussion has been closed.