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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft nationa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll
Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%
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It really is hilarious entertainment, but surprising? Not any more.
BTW, Mike, according Ashcroft's email, the Labour drop is 1, rather than 2 as above. Haven't checked myself.
Tories = England
Jul 21, 2014 03:59 pm
UKIP, steady as she goes. Cammo needs to be worried. Cleggover supports assisted suicide. Red Ed can do no wrong, he also can't do right. Greens offering tributes to their gods.
As each week ticks by, the closer Ed gets to No. 10.
George Osborne = Matt Prior
http://www.jacdec.de/2014/07/14/2014-07-14-ukraine-air-force-antonov-an-26-shot-down-in-eastern-ukraine/
Interesting...
The Greens deserve an article I reckon. Not only are they reaching new heights of national support, but they are doing it without any media presence from their leader. Crossover (as a one-off, granted) with the LDs is practically inevitable at some point.
Certain to vote for stated party is now: Lab 59%, UKIP 58, Con 56, LD 42. Only 7% of UKIP supporters say they are "moving towards" the Tories, with 76% moving away from them (for don't knows, the figures are 9% towards and 46% away). Among swing voters (people who say they might change their minds) 27% are moving towards Labour, 15% towards the Tories. 39% think Labour's team is "competent and capable", vs 43% Tories (both figures higher among AB voters), though 37% think Labour better at "presenting the whole country, not just one group" vs 28% for the Tories. 38% think Labour has clear ideas vs 39% for the Tories. There are various other similar results.
http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=7c92abe0d0d9432cf9c5b98c9&id=0cf1065311&e=99cd3aa6df
So MoE and all that accepted I am not in the least surprised that the Conservative figure is down to 27%. It probably ain't that low in reality, maybe 30%. However, Cameron still has another nine months and there are still some groups of voters he hasn't yet gone out of his way to piss off. He will get there.
I don't think anything is changing much at the moment, and nor would I expect much change over the summer when people are focused on other things. We need to wait until first IndyRef, and then the conferences, have happened, and start looking for trends from (say) November. It is that last six months which will determine the outcome.
Of course, the above assumes no major dislocations from domestic or international affairs, which may turn out to be a wrong assumption, given the current headlines.
BTW How's the 'brush-by' going?
Surely Washington would be keen to court what labour posters think is the British Prime Minister in waiting?
I see no reason why the general election should result in a transfer of voters back from Labour to the Liberal Democrats unless there is a severe decline in Labour’s ability to offer anything. Because in a sense those Liberal Democrat voters that are going to Labour are primarily there because of push rather than pull..
Inasmuch as that is true, they might be pushed elsewhere - most likely towards the Greens. After all these voters have deserted Labour in the past, and clearly are motivated by a distate for the difficult choices of governing - which is part of why they went to the LibDems in the first place.
Time for Lord A to stop wasting his money on these polls methinks
The interesting bit to me is that a Ukraine army formation is trapped in a pocket on the Russian border being resupplied by air and that's why transport planes are being shot down. You'd think someone might mention it on the news.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/10976736/Income-tax-league-table-the-towns-that-pay-the-most-and-least-tax-in-Britain.html
Few years ago is was - second half of the Parliament will determine the outcome.
Few months ago it was - the last year will determine the outcome.
When the exit polls are published and Ed declared PM it will be - still hope, last minute votes could determine the outcome.
PBTories, bless 'em.
I would have thought Gove was popular with kippers too. Any polling on that?
That just gives a reason why the Russians/rebels shot it down, and why it was unlikely the Ukrainians did.
Rather, he annoyed the cr*p out of people UKIP really don;t like
Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft)
21/07/2014 16:29
Average of Ashcroft National Poll 30th June - 21st July. CON 30% LAB 34% LDEM 8% UKIP 15%
How much money have you staked on a Labour majority; and if you haven't, why not?
"Liberal Democrat voters think David Cameron would be a better Prime Minister than Nick Clegg, a new poll has found.
A survey by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative party donor, found that 35 per cent of LibDems thought Mr Cameron was a better choice for Prime Minister.
The proportion was marginally head of the 34 per cent of LibDem voters who thought Mr Clegg would be a better leader of the country."
I wonder which camp OGH and Mark Senior are in ?
Interesting way of saying "foreigners".
all going a bit pete tong
I was going to pre empt your remark but thought no one would be bothered to make such an obvious, and incorrect, snide comment.
For example, the Labour lead according to ICM went from +5 to -2 between April and May. I'm inclined to the view that actually nothing much had changed.
ARSE competing with DH for the title IMHO JackW previous good record will be dented by
One essential that will not change is that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister
JacW 22/6/14
Early days yet but my BJESUS looking OK at this stage
ianpatterson99 @ianpatterson99 33m
Nick Griffin was outed as BNP leader on Sat, but coverage doesn't break until today. Shows that party's thankful irrelevance.
I thought it was you who once masqueraded under the moniker Sam before trying to pull the wool over our eyes by cunningly changing your name to Isam?
Agreed. My position also. There is sod all happening.
Don;t know, but the tweet said, 'some surprises!'
Guess its quite an interesting poll for you.
Brave.
Yes I did, but obviously am not pretending not to be Sam, and only changed because the old login and password wouldn't work on new computer.
What's your excuse?!
21/07/2014 17:08
Should the Tory Party suspend taking donations from companies owned by Russians.
Continuing the discussion from the last thread, "Big Bang" was Thatcher's cornerstone financial policy.
Quoting from Wiki:
"Although the "Big Bang" eased stock market transactions there is a debate in the UK about how far it affected the 2007–2012 global financial crisis. In 2010, Nigel Lawson, Thatcher's Chancellor at the time, appeared on the Analysis program to discuss banking reform, explaining that the 2007–2012 global financial crisis was an unintended consequence of the "Big Bang". He said that UK investment banks, previously very cautious with what was their own money, had merged with high street banks putting depositors' savings at risk and ...according to the program leading US banks to follow suit".
I guess if anyone should know, Lawson is the man. Far more significant than anything Brown did, though his actions hardly improved matters.
I thought it was a low down dirty trick trying to rebrand yourself as Isam. I read it wrong and thought it was Islam. Impersonating an entire religion. Downright disgraceful behaviour.
So tell us your views on casual, unthinking racism and its distribution among the parties.
I am not certain EIC will be PM but certainly the polls are pointing that way with 10.5 months to go. My BJESUS tomorrow will be consistent with all 5 published so far and will have Ed as biggest party with tiny overall majority. If the polls tighten soon this will impact on my BJESUS. I would not be at all surprised if Ed does not get a majority but i would be very surprised if LAB are not biggest party.
Myself and JackW are about 30 seats apart we will see who is right and who is wrong. JackW has DH on his side which is comforting!
While we are on the subject, I think it is an interesting paradox that left wingers won't hear a word said against Islam despite Muslims being very intolerant of many lefty favourites(equality for women and gays etc) while right wingers seem to have it in for Muslims despite them sharing many old fashioned values that they want to preserve ( marriage, discipline in schools)
Ed is crap is PM
I owe my career to big bang, for what its worth. Before it the City was a tiny and ineffectual club for chinless wonders. After Big Bang the Japanese and Americans moved in, and guess what, they didn't care what tie you wore or which regiment you served in.
This is where people get Mrs Thatcher so wrong. She was happy to eviscerate the old City, no matter how many well connected chaps it shook to the core. She didn't like upper class vested interest any more than trade union vested interest, or civil service vested interest.
Ed is Crap is landslide PM 10.5 months to go
'BTW How's the 'brush-by' going?
Surely Washington would be keen to court what labour posters think is the British Prime Minister in waiting?'
A brush off ?
Any joy on when Regan repealed the Glass-Stegall Act, by the way?
Not like the press in the West over Iraq of course
Re: religion. I dislike them all.
I have good friends who are charismatic Christians (speaking in tongues and all that) and devout Muslims. I think some of their beliefs are strange and they think my absence of belief is sad (one of the Christians says he feels it's a shame I'll probably go to hell, and he hopes he can yet save me). But primarily they're just nice people and I dislike anyone making assumptions about them.
Shouldn't the UKIP colour be a sort of greyish-beige?
"Barack Obama can't save Ed Miliband
The Labour party leader is desperate for a White House invite. But it won't convince us he is prime minister material".
Double LOL at the fact that isn't Dan Hodges, it's Christina Patterson in the Guardian on 13 July.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/13/ed-miliband-last-chance-family-man-brother
She must feel jolly small after seeing today's polling.