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Tories still rated as a 75% betting chance in Batley and Spen – politicalbetting.com
Tories still rated as a 75% betting chance in Batley and Spen – politicalbetting.com
In that other by-election that takes place a fortnight tomorrow, the Tory position remains strong with the party at a 75% chance in the betting. That’s not as good as the current Chesham and Amersham betting but still pretty clear.
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In general, it is not a good look for a political party if an ugly, middle-aged male MP has a mid-life sex crisis in full glare of the media.
But irritating there's no liberal party seeking to win C&A.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeAylett/status/1404932062725820418
I’ll probably be corrected, but it seems to me that, on the whole, Muslims and Jews have never really got on, and the rising levels of islamophobia & anti- semitism are nothing more than there being more opportunities for them to clash in England than there used to be. We never really saw it this close up before
The worry for me is that if Labour lose the Muslim vote in the inner cities, an Islamic party will step into the vacuum - that would be a disastrous outcome
Con 38%
Lab 41%
LD 17%
2021 locals
Con 36%
Lab 29%
LD 17%
Corbyn had a piss poor set of 2017 LEs but his subsequent 2017 GE performance was pretty good in early June...
There's an argument that Starmer may well be the worst Labour leader since well who knows when. Sub Foot and sub Corbyn at this rate.
Given local knowledge proved so good in 'Pool, do we have any posters in B&S or in C&A ? What do they advise?
I think Labour despite having a local Candidate cannot win due to SKS
The fact Foot was trounced in 1983 despite those 1981 local elections results proves the point (albeit 1981 was pre Falklands War and Thatcher's bounce after that)
I remain of the view Labour will narrowly hold Batley and Spen, mainly due to their candidate being Jo Cox's sister and the Tories will narrowly hold Chesham and Amersham
I suspect that some of the heat in the housing market recently may be due to people being locked down spending time looking to move instead of booking holidays - especially if they now think a bigger suburban home with more space to work from home is more valuable than an expensive flat in the city.
If they were actually liberal they would be.
Indeed ReformUK is closer to being libertarian than the LDs are but then even they still want to built on brownbelt sites first as per the Brexit Party manifesto in 2019
Le Pen 28%
Macron 26%
Bertrand 14%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1405100008010137603?s=20
Although if the figures you cite are completions I guess that’s different. Solicitors are absolutely snowed under though so there will be a surge if those late June
except for the loads of people of whatever faith who have got on fine with each other.
why not say eg "on the whole, Christians and Jews have never got on" if you're going to make silly comments?
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1405106244738748419?s=19
Women's top sprinters are c. 10% slower than top men. Top lady golfers drive it c. 280 vs 320 for men so a similar gap.
Yet the opening bowlers here are just incredibly slow, 25% or more down on a reasonably paced male bowler. Just wondering if anyone follows this whether that is an Indian team point or a general issue?
…
I probably spend their time watching Novara Media for more "accurate" reporting.
Of course, Labour don't deserve to gain, but that's politics.
I think Labour did well in that election in part, at least, on the rebound from that letter.
Johnson and his Gang have grabbed dictatorial powers for themselves, under the pretext of Covid. People do not like being dictated to, and as a result we are going to see the Liberal Democrats do extremely well in Chesham and Amersham. They are polar opposites of the authoritarian Conservative and Labour parties.
But don't worry, he has forensic skills.
So the Tories would be narrowly re elected but Starmer would have done a Kinnock and cut the Tory majority to 28 as Kinnock cut it to 21 then
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41&LAB=34&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
https://twitter.com/DSFireUpdates/status/1404894298785603591
Looks to be the same breed as my dog
Or in the word of Michael Holding "bowl it fast, why is he not bowling it faster, in my day you bowled it fast, fast, fast . . . did I mention you should bowl fast yet?"
But I agree he has a bit of a fetish about speed.
https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/the-pm-on-hancock-totally-fucking
Includes whatsapps from Boris calling Hancock useless.
For instance, I said earlier I thought ‘Time’ was brilliant. Whilst we were watching it though, when the Prison Governor turned out to be a young, black woman, my gf and I looked at each other and said ‘standard lefty bbc’, but it didn’t stop the program being brilliant - and there is a part of me that doesn’t mind the unrealistic aspect of it if it is promoting some kind of acceptance/trying to slap down old attitudes. I think outraged of Gammonshire would say they turned it off at that point, and the same goes for the other side of the coin - the stop funding hate types who demand their kind of purity
Start point was the local elections, as those results and GE results land in broadly the same range and there was a full range of candidates:
Local elections across 6 wards:
Lab, 11410, Con, 11450
(Con, +40 votes)
Cleckheaton LD redistribution:
About 1500 votes to divide
300 LD, 750 Lab, 450 Con
(Lab, +260)
Note: CON 2nd place lead in locals substantial enough that ward still 'goes CON' in Electoral Calculus.
(Note: local issue of a proposed Amazon warehouse seem to hit opprobrium across the spectrum, I've not factored in any hit to Labour by virtue of leading the council, from this)
Independent redistribution:
Very few independent votes in LE
Heavy Woollens, as I predicted, were a diminished force and have not stood
Galloway will still have some currency for Muslim voters and I do expect an impact on Labour
(-> Con +1200)
Kim Leadbeater:
The Jo Cox sister thing won't be seen as a manipulation here, as Leadbeater has a positive profile in her own right
(-> Lab +300)
Swing since May:
The LEs diminished SKS considerably, but COVID regs delay and the relevant 'not a local lockdown' debacle has probably clawed back some of that loss.
The mo' is important, so C&A result may be a tipping point to n itself.
(-> genuinely tctc)
Prediction: majority of no more than 500 (on LE like turnout) for either party.
The most revealing thing is Johnson's question on the ppe disaster "is this from tonight focus group and polls"
Not "is PPE actually a disaster, but "do voters think it's a disaster"?
He really really really hates Hancock doesn't he.
"Totally fucking useless"
I have a lot of time for his analysis of the failings of Whitehall. I agree with him that we need better use of genuine experts and better information for our decision makers. I also agree that it is disappointing that so many of those decision makers are innumerate, ignorant, not very bright and apparently uninterested in learning.
But this is disgraceful. It really is.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1405116314050519040?s=20
Guido has updated his article.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1405099365610442755?s=19
But Starmer reminds me that he and Labour are even worse.
Even more damning, considering replacing shit Predator with awful Alien
Ironic when so much of the benefit of this channel is hearing an interviewee get their words out without interuption that the flagship presenter is likely to stick to the opposite.
If the government had done the right thing and locked people out of the country, Starmer and the rest of the twats in the Labour Party would have screamed and screamed and screamed.
I don’t think they can help themselves.
We just have to except, just like Tour de France candidates and racing horses, Politicians can go in and out of form?
Lowest wednesday 1sts reporting in Wales for a while - they're up to 88% of adults now though so likely approaching the long asymptotic tail of demand.
A colleague has just shown me his vaccinations booked, 1st was in early June and second 11 weeks later !
Had no idea the regular system was still doing this - as we'll be down to a trickle with first jabs shortly (Demand limitation) did noone think to shorten the default vaccination gap - particularly with Pfizer at this stage of the rollout ?
It's still 11 weeks which is crazy.
While the vaccine roll out slows....and the real important question is was delaying for a month the right decision.
If things didn't get a little intemperate I would wonder the hell was going on. Stressful doesn't even begin to describe it.
Nor is it all that surprising that the first attempt to build a team to address it didn't work. It would have been astonishing if it did.
Cummings seems to be carrying a lot of guilt that things didn't go better. I think he should reflect that with his help things went tolerably well. Lots of mistakes. Several inspired calls. Some mediocrity. Such is life.
The government IT service should insist on only approved devices running approved applications - that get wiped when someone leaves, or forgets it in a taxi.
Johnson screwed up this week kowtowing to nonsensical scientific "models" despite an absence of deaths and still he can't get the ball in the net.
If Starmer can't best Boris this week of all weeks when is he ever going to do so again.