Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
People here have got real world experience. We've got jobs where people rely on us to provide accurate and timely data/information. Academics are, IMO, pretty second rate when it comes to data modelling vs the private sector of banking and tech. I remember the best early model was just a guy who plugged in various daily statistics into a logistic regression model and published the results unaltered. It outdid all of the academic models by some distance and that's just a simple logistic regression.
We're talking about a really tiny and not random at all dataset, modelling it is a piece of piss.
I think the other difference is in the banking sector is people are prepared to challenge the models, and the person who created the model doesn't get upset.
Doesn't get upset... chortle...
Well doesn't get outwardly upset, they realise it is a part of the job.
Yes, that's more like it.
That's been my experience, as long as the criticism is useful and can be used to make improvements to the model it's not a big deal. If not there's just a general annoyance and ultimately it gets ignored anyway.
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
Not sure how informed a 13-yr old would be to take a vaccine.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
The risk of long covid if you get covid under 18 is around 7% (Figure was on ITV news). Some parents might want to guard against that for their kids.
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
People here have got real world experience. We've got jobs where people rely on us to provide accurate and timely data/information. Academics are, IMO, pretty second rate when it comes to data modelling vs the private sector of banking and tech. I remember the best early model was just a guy who plugged in various daily statistics into a logistic regression model and published the results unaltered. It outdid all of the academic models by some distance and that's just a simple logistic regression.
We're talking about a really tiny and not random at all dataset, modelling it is a piece of piss.
I think the other difference is in the banking sector is people are prepared to challenge the models, and the person who created the model doesn't get upset.
Hmm. Try that one when you are bringing a company to market and writing the info memo.
True, I suppose I have the ultimate deterrent because I can say 'Get this wrong and you'll end up in prison', that usually gets the attention of people.
I say the same thing to my gang of dickensian cutpurses. Little urchins know what's what then.
My talk to a bunch of traders which began citing the stats about rape in American prisons is legendary.
We need a culture change so that all scientific inputs to important policy decisions are fully open to appraisal and the government itself sponsors a red team to attack the paper/recommendation. I'd love that all official advisers had "skin in the game" (e.g. enhanced or reduced pensions depending on outcomes. Not sure how that can practically be achieved. However it would be some emotional compensation if we knew that some pensions were going to be halved if frequent and sustained rolling blackouts occurred due to a ludicrously impractical decarbonisation programme.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
Not sure how informed a 13-yr old would be to take a vaccine.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
The risk of long covid if you get covid under 18 is around 7% (Figure was on ITV news). Some parents might want to guard against that for their kids.
At what age should it be up to the kid not the parent? At 13 I could have had strong views either way and would have thought it my decision to make. Is it legally 16 or 18 when kids get autonomy on this type of decision?
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
For one thing we've told the 20-somethings for months now they're not at much risk and they all know their parents and grandparents are already vaccinated too.
For another the 20-somethings have been getting vaccinated for weeks now. There's always been some getting vaccinated ahead of schedule but that can't happen now effectively. Since all over 18s have been able to get the jab for weeks now in many areas, there's nobody else to open it up to. The most eager over 18s or 20-somethings have already been jabbed.
As Dr Robert Malone (inventor of mRNA vaccines and a supporter of the principle) said recently, it breaks bio-ethics principles to jab people for whom the risk of death from vaccine exceeds the risk of death from COVID. Offering ice creams in return for jabs is distasteful. So is the UK use of psy-ops (i.e. most of SAGE) to persuade people to do something irreversible that does them more harm than good.
Dr John Campbell has now done several talks on Ivermectin and its 99.99% non-use in this country. It's as if the entire NHS is corrupted and hospital doctors (salaried employeees) are threatened with the sack for speaking out, e.g. writing to the BMJ on these vaccines' side-effects. So they'll say what they're told to say to pay their mortgage. Mostly only retired docs say what they believe. A few GPs are resigning in disgust ...
And yet, bizarrely, places that went the vaccine route have gotten rid of both Covid and restrictions on freedom. While the evidence for the efficacy of Ivermectin is modest: it helps a little, but nowhere near as much as not getting the diseases at all, and doesn't help crush the prevalence and spread of Covid.
Still I salute you for enabling me to save time in future by ignoring your posts.
I do worry though that the case for boosters (and possible reintroduction of restrictions until take up is high enough) may be driven at least in part by the number we have on advance order. Possibly even generated by the vaccine producers themselves making advanced claims about how much better they are than previous ones (complete with appropriate studies about declining antibody levels in the general vaccinated population)
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
I really hope that the mens team is being forced to watch this performance by the women. Valuing their wickets, grinding out the runs when things were a bit tricky and then cashing in on some tiring bowling at the end of the day. It has been an almost flawless performance.
In defence of the men's team, I guess a lot of the women don't have the option of smashing sixes, so aren't tempted to take it
That's not defending the men's team it's dissing the women's team.
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
How are we going to cope with this level of exponential growth?
If you are already seeing exponential growth in deaths it is already way, way too late.
It depends how exponential it is and for how long.
The fundamental misconception some have is that exponentials can go on forever, rather than running out of road, peaking and going back down. Flu deaths at the beginning of each winter start going up exponentially but we don't lose our minds over that - we give out the vaccinations to the vulnerable but then live our lives as standard.
That's where we should be with Covid. In fact we've gone further than we do with the flu by giving the vaccine to those who aren't even vulnerable, which we don't normally do with the flu (albeit we're not giving it to kids so swings and roundabouts there).
Boris has FOMOed in on the top of a shitcoin chart because he's convinced himself it's going up forever. We've all been there.
This is the first experience of exponential growth many non-degenerates have ever had.
That's a great analogy.
All these people acting as if the trends will continue indefinitely - its just as nonsensical as people saying "ooh look Gamestop is rising, you must buy Gamestop stocks".
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
I get the feeling the majority of people actually watching it are the outraged easily triggered tw@tterati that constantly demand the need for their space safe....with their finger posed over the "new tweet" button at all times....
Most other people turned it on, went this looks a bit shit and switched over.
Talking of easily triggered snowflakes...bloke writes a semi-autographical novel that was partly a work of fiction (cough cough sounds like Seant T)....gets published, top of the bestseller list, all the liberal book reviewers like....5 years later, he is hired to work with Apple after a long career in tech, an Apple employee finds one passage in the book, where he says San Francisco women are weak, they loses their shit, gets 2000 to sign a petition to get him fired.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Thank you for the correction. I didn't intentionally miss out Theresa, but really, only one scientist in the whole cabinet? Considering the importance, and not just at the current time, of science and engineering it is ridiculous that the cabinet is stuffed full of people with "humanities" graduates.
They have to "follow the science" because barring one (who is Work and Pensions) they don't fecking understand it! You could tell that lot that the moon is made of blue cheese and if you had a PhD in physics they would have to believe you.
Alok Sharma who was Business Secretary but now still attends Cabinet as President for COP26 also has a STEM degree in Physics and Electronics from Salford University.
However you don't need a STEM degree to make policy on science and technology issues necessarily as long as you have a range of top rank scientists and engineers to get advice from.
As I also said most top STEM graduates earn more in industry and the City than they ever would in politics so have no wish to make the move
I really hope that the mens team is being forced to watch this performance by the women. Valuing their wickets, grinding out the runs when things were a bit tricky and then cashing in on some tiring bowling at the end of the day. It has been an almost flawless performance.
In defence of the men's team, I guess a lot of the women don't have the option of smashing sixes, so aren't tempted to take it
That's not defending the men's team it's dissing the women's team.
It is a defence of the men's team. I dont mean to diss the women's team, but they dont have the ability to hit sixes as the men do - I would say that's just a fact, but I can see how someone of your political persuasion would classify it as a diss!
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
Not sure how informed a 13-yr old would be to take a vaccine.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
The risk of long covid if you get covid under 18 is around 7% (Figure was on ITV news). Some parents might want to guard against that for their kids.
At what age should it be up to the kid not the parent? At 13 I could have had strong views either way and would have thought it my decision to make. Is it legally 16 or 18 when kids get autonomy on this type of decision?
We used to have great fun with ‘age of responsibility’ when I worked with Family Planning teams. Especially those dealing with young people….. those under 16!
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Thank you for the correction. I didn't intentionally miss out Theresa, but really, only one scientist in the whole cabinet? Considering the importance, and not just at the current time, of science and engineering it is ridiculous that the cabinet is stuffed full of people with "humanities" graduates.
They have to "follow the science" because barring one (who is Work and Pensions) they don't fecking understand it! You could tell that lot that the moon is made of blue cheese and if you had a PhD in physics they would have to believe you.
Alok Sharma who was Business Secretary but now still attends Cabinet as President for COP26 also has a STEM degree in Physics and Electronics from Salford University.
However you don't need a STEM degree to make policy on science and technology issues necessarily as long as you have a range of top rank scientists and engineers to get advice from.
As I also said most top STEM graduates earn more in industry and the City than they ever would in politics so have no wish to make the move
Engineer salaries are pretty low in this country
I had to go into consulting to get a decent salary.
Only ten years ago I was told I should expect my salary to be my age X grand, throughout my career.
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board - broadly speaking - was pro first lockdown ahead of Boris, and indeed pro second lockdown ahead of Boris too.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
I get the feeling the majority of people actually watching it are the outraged easily triggered tw@tterati that constantly demand the need for their space safe....with their finger posed over the "new tweet" button at all times....
Most other people turned it on, went this looks a bit shit and switched over.
Talking of easily triggered snowflakes...bloke writes a semi-autographical novel that was partly a work of fiction (cough cough sounds like Seant T)....gets published, top of the bestseller list, all the liberal book reviewers like....5 years later, he is hired to work with Apple after a long career in tech, an Apple employee finds one passage in the book, where he says San Francisco women are weak, they loses their shit, gets 2000 to sign a petition to get him fired.
It is difficult to believe anyone would willingly spend their time watching GB News. I appreciate they are fighting the good fight and don't mind glancing at the youtube channel whilst looking at other things on the internet but the idea of having the TV on with all this stuff blasting out continuously is not appealing at all. I'd rather have Radio 3 or Radio 6 which generally stick to music and haven't gone completely woke and in my view justify the TV license fee and ongoing existence of the BBC as they are ad free and manned by smart people, and thus far better than commercial radio. There are so many other better things to do with your life. Books, films, exercise, podcasts etc.
We need a culture change so that all scientific inputs to important policy decisions are fully open to appraisal and the government itself sponsors a red team to attack the paper/recommendation. I'd love that all official advisers had "skin in the game" (e.g. enhanced or reduced pensions depending on outcomes. Not sure how that can practically be achieved. However it would be some emotional compensation if we knew that some pensions were going to be halved if frequent and sustained rolling blackouts occurred due to a ludicrously impractical decarbonisation programme.
While I agree with "skin in the game", there's an awful lot of evidence that people aren't good at pricing events a long time in the future, so I'm not sure pensions is the right way to do it.
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I can’t see us rejoining.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Thank you for the correction. I didn't intentionally miss out Theresa, but really, only one scientist in the whole cabinet? Considering the importance, and not just at the current time, of science and engineering it is ridiculous that the cabinet is stuffed full of people with "humanities" graduates.
They have to "follow the science" because barring one (who is Work and Pensions) they don't fecking understand it! You could tell that lot that the moon is made of blue cheese and if you had a PhD in physics they would have to believe you.
Alok Sharma who was Business Secretary but now still attends Cabinet as President for COP26 also has a STEM degree in Physics and Electronics from Salford University.
However you don't need a STEM degree to make policy on science and technology issues necessarily as long as you have a range of top rank scientists and engineers to get advice from.
As I also said most top STEM graduates earn more in industry and the City than they ever would in politics so have no wish to make the move
Engineer salaries are pretty low in this country
I had to go into consulting to get a decent salary.
Only ten years ago I was told I should expect my salary to be my age X grand, throughout my career.
Is that why you constantly affect an elderly demeanour?
Is Rayner going to launch a coup against Starmer if they lose Batley & Spen?
She’d have to resign the deputy leadership to contest the leadership.
Could she get the numbers to spark a contest?
If she did, would she be the only challenger?
If the answer to either of those questions is ‘no,’ forget it.
Truthfully, I think she would rather wait until after an election defeat anyway. Labour face a stiff challenge in 2024 but an election in 2025 or later would be a cinch for them with this lot in charge. An ambitious younger politician therefore needs to have a fall guy for that 2024 election before scooping the pool later.
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board - broadly speaking - was pro first lockdown ahead of Boris, and indeed pro second lockdown ahead of Boris too.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I can’t see us rejoining.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
You must have excellent eyesight if you can foresee enlightened leadership in any of those three.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Thank you for the correction. I didn't intentionally miss out Theresa, but really, only one scientist in the whole cabinet? Considering the importance, and not just at the current time, of science and engineering it is ridiculous that the cabinet is stuffed full of people with "humanities" graduates.
They have to "follow the science" because barring one (who is Work and Pensions) they don't fecking understand it! You could tell that lot that the moon is made of blue cheese and if you had a PhD in physics they would have to believe you.
Alok Sharma who was Business Secretary but now still attends Cabinet as President for COP26 also has a STEM degree in Physics and Electronics from Salford University.
However you don't need a STEM degree to make policy on science and technology issues necessarily as long as you have a range of top rank scientists and engineers to get advice from.
As I also said most top STEM graduates earn more in industry and the City than they ever would in politics so have no wish to make the move
Engineer salaries are pretty low in this country
I had to go into consulting to get a decent salary.
Only ten years ago I was told I should expect my salary to be my age X grand, throughout my career.
Is that why you constantly effect an elderly demeanour?
Is Rayner going to launch a coup against Starmer if they lose Batley & Spen?
I think not - but the margin wouldn't be irrelevant. Lose just because of Galloway is one thing. Lose with a Hartlepool size collapse would be another.
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I can’t see us rejoining.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
Obviously not in the foreseeable, but I remember few could see us leaving 20 years ago, when I first started taking the possibility seriously.
People having a great pandemic: inventors of vaccines
People having a shit pandemic: ALL THE OTHER SCIENTISTS
From masks to fomites to distancing to “lab leak” to gain-of-function to the corrupt science journals to this latest SAGE fuck up. Tsk
Although not all of them are scientists, of course. For example, Susan Michie is a child psychologist, which basically means she writes fiction with big complicated words in it.
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I suspect a lot of the missing are those who said “Why the fuck are you talking about this again?”
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board - broadly speaking - was pro first lockdown ahead of Boris, and indeed pro second lockdown ahead of Boris too.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
Agree with what you wrote. But also (from my recollection at least) -> this board was broadly speaking opposed to lockdown 2/restrictions in Sept when needed & flagged by SAGE, thought COVID was over in the Summer, & thought we couldn't possibly cancel Christmas.
It currently seems to think there won't be a 3rd wave of any real significance - hopefully that's right... but the idea that hospitalizations couldn't rise looks to be pretty exploded by the fact they are up 40% in the past week...
I really hope that the mens team is being forced to watch this performance by the women. Valuing their wickets, grinding out the runs when things were a bit tricky and then cashing in on some tiring bowling at the end of the day. It has been an almost flawless performance.
In defence of the men's team, I guess a lot of the women don't have the option of smashing sixes, so aren't tempted to take it
That's not defending the men's team it's dissing the women's team.
It is a defence of the men's team. I dont mean to diss the women's team, but they dont have the ability to hit sixes as the men do - I would say that's just a fact, but I can see how someone of your political persuasion would classify it as a diss!
Nothing to do with my politics. It's my super perceptiveness. My gift. My curse.
I really hope that the mens team is being forced to watch this performance by the women. Valuing their wickets, grinding out the runs when things were a bit tricky and then cashing in on some tiring bowling at the end of the day. It has been an almost flawless performance.
In defence of the men's team, I guess a lot of the women don't have the option of smashing sixes, so aren't tempted to take it
That's not defending the men's team it's dissing the women's team.
It is a defence of the men's team. I dont mean to diss the women's team, but they dont have the ability to hit sixes as the men do - I would say that's just a fact, but I can see how someone of your political persuasion would classify it as a diss!
Nothing to do with my politics. It's my super perceptiveness. My gift. My curse.
Enlighten us as to the results of the by-elections tomorrow, oh wise one?
GB News is under investigation by Ofcom after 373 viewers complained to the broadcasting watchdog about one of its first programmes.
The regulator said that the complaints related to Dan Wootton’s first broadcast on Sunday, June 13, when the presenter began with a monologue about the government’s continued lockdown measures because of the spread of the Indian variant of Covid.
We need a culture change so that all scientific inputs to important policy decisions are fully open to appraisal and the government itself sponsors a red team to attack the paper/recommendation. I'd love that all official advisers had "skin in the game" (e.g. enhanced or reduced pensions depending on outcomes. Not sure how that can practically be achieved. However it would be some emotional compensation if we knew that some pensions were going to be halved if frequent and sustained rolling blackouts occurred due to a ludicrously impractical decarbonisation programme.
While I agree with "skin in the game", there's an awful lot of evidence that people aren't good at pricing events a long time in the future, so I'm not sure pensions is the right way to do it.
Yes it is difficult, particularly when evaluating the models/policies against reality may take decades. Also the "penalties" can't be too strong for getting it wrong or following the consensus will be encouraged. Probably the best approach is to open source models and data, to fund red teams and to publish their work and to reduce the weight given to conventional peer review. The latter is a weak form of QA at best and open to gaming at worst.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
Not sure how informed a 13-yr old would be to take a vaccine.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
The risk of long covid if you get covid under 18 is around 7% (Figure was on ITV news). Some parents might want to guard against that for their kids.
At what age should it be up to the kid not the parent? At 13 I could have had strong views either way and would have thought it my decision to make. Is it legally 16 or 18 when kids get autonomy on this type of decision?
Not sure, it will be one of the two though. How is consent for stuff like this normally handled ?
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I can’t see us rejoining.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
I've said a few times on here that the woke are- almost certainly- all remainers. If they succeed in their project of creating a totalitarian political system that excludes all positive discussion about Brexit, rejoining the EU could happen, it could just be a manifesto commitment, no referendum necessary.
The problem is that it is probably the EU that would make the rejoining take years, and by that point we would probably fall foul of their pesky rules about freedom of speech.
People having a great pandemic: inventors of vaccines
People having a shit pandemic: ALL THE OTHER SCIENTISTS
From masks to fomites to distancing to “lab leak” to gain-of-function to the corrupt science journals to this latest SAGE fuck up. Tsk
Although not all of them are scientists, of course. For example, Susan Michie is a child psychologist, which basically means she writes fiction with big complicated words in it.
What the holy Fuck of sacred Fucks is she doing on SAGE?
There must be a swimming of the boffins at the end of this. Those that float shall be sent to the assizes
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board was in favour of restrictions on flights from India, and also forecast that the Delta "blip" would soon burn itself out.
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I can’t see us rejoining.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
I've said a few times on here that the woke are- almost certainly- all remainers. If they succeed in their project of creating a totalitarian political system that excludes all positive discussion about Brexit, rejoining the EU could happen, it could just be a manifesto commitment, no referendum necessary.
The problem is that it is probably the EU that would make the rejoining take years, and by that point we would probably fall foul of their pesky rules about freedom of speech.
Corbyn is woke and a Brexiter. The rest of your post is splendidly Ickeian.
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board - broadly speaking - was pro first lockdown ahead of Boris, and indeed pro second lockdown ahead of Boris too.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
Agree with what you wrote. But also (from my recollection at least) -> this board was broadly speaking opposed to lockdown 2/restrictions in Sept when needed & flagged by SAGE, thought COVID was over in the Summer, & thought we couldn't possibly cancel Christmas.
It currently seems to think there won't be a 3rd wave of any real significance - hopefully that's right... but the idea that hospitalizations couldn't rise looks to be pretty exploded by the fact they are up 40% in the past week...
With all due respect, hospitalizations isn't the issue, it's number in hospital. And that's up about 15% in the last week. People simply aren't being hospitalized for long and that's a massive change.
I really hope that the mens team is being forced to watch this performance by the women. Valuing their wickets, grinding out the runs when things were a bit tricky and then cashing in on some tiring bowling at the end of the day. It has been an almost flawless performance.
In defence of the men's team, I guess a lot of the women don't have the option of smashing sixes, so aren't tempted to take it
That's not defending the men's team it's dissing the women's team.
It is a defence of the men's team. I dont mean to diss the women's team, but they dont have the ability to hit sixes as the men do - I would say that's just a fact, but I can see how someone of your political persuasion would classify it as a diss!
Nothing to do with my politics. It's my super perceptiveness. My gift. My curse.
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board - broadly speaking - was pro first lockdown ahead of Boris, and indeed pro second lockdown ahead of Boris too.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
Agree with what you wrote. But also (from my recollection at least) -> this board was broadly speaking opposed to lockdown 2/restrictions in Sept when needed & flagged by SAGE, thought COVID was over in the Summer, & thought we couldn't possibly cancel Christmas.
It currently seems to think there won't be a 3rd wave of any real significance - hopefully that's right... but the idea that hospitalizations couldn't rise looks to be pretty exploded by the fact they are up 40% in the past week...
I think I’m unusual in that I:
1) Opposed the first lockdown, because I could see it would be a train crash;
2) Opposed the reopening because I could see the restrictions imposed would make life impossible, and would do nothing to stop the spread of the virus;
3) Favoured locking down again very early on when I was proved right about this;
4) When finally proved right, opposed reopening on the basis that it was a gamble imposed by Johnson and the government’s political agenda and seemed set to be an even bigger disaster;
5) Having been proved wrong on that, because of vaccines, am now firmly in favour of opening up.
But throughout, I have been frustrated at the ridiculous failure to control our borders properly. Just madness.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Thank you for the correction. I didn't intentionally miss out Theresa, but really, only one scientist in the whole cabinet? Considering the importance, and not just at the current time, of science and engineering it is ridiculous that the cabinet is stuffed full of people with "humanities" graduates.
They have to "follow the science" because barring one (who is Work and Pensions) they don't fecking understand it! You could tell that lot that the moon is made of blue cheese and if you had a PhD in physics they would have to believe you.
Alok Sharma who was Business Secretary but now still attends Cabinet as President for COP26 also has a STEM degree in Physics and Electronics from Salford University.
However you don't need a STEM degree to make policy on science and technology issues necessarily as long as you have a range of top rank scientists and engineers to get advice from.
As I also said most top STEM graduates earn more in industry and the City than they ever would in politics so have no wish to make the move
Engineer salaries are pretty low in this country
I had to go into consulting to get a decent salary.
Only ten years ago I was told I should expect my salary to be my age X grand, throughout my career.
That implies 31% don't knows or will not say, which seems a bit high.
Or perhaps it's logical, given that we've no idea e.g. whether the EU would let us keep our opt-outs and rebates, in particular whether we'd have to join the euro ...
I can’t see us rejoining.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
You must have excellent eyesight if you can foresee enlightened leadership in any of those three.
I suppose as unDictator of Britain, I could extend the borders a tad......
Is Rayner going to launch a coup against Starmer if they lose Batley & Spen?
She’d have to resign the deputy leadership to contest the leadership.
Could she get the numbers to spark a contest?
If she did, would she be the only challenger?
If the answer to either of those questions is ‘no,’ forget it.
Truthfully, I think she would rather wait until after an election defeat anyway. Labour face a stiff challenge in 2024 but an election in 2025 or later would be a cinch for them with this lot in charge. An ambitious younger politician therefore needs to have a fall guy for that 2024 election before scooping the pool later.
If Starmer loses in 2024 then Burnham would likely be his successor, not Rayner, Burnham having said he will stand as an MP again in 2024 but not before.
47% of voters think Burnham would make a good Labour leader, just 25% think Rayner would
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
How are we going to cope with this level of exponential growth?
If you are already seeing exponential growth in deaths it is already way, way too late.
It depends how exponential it is and for how long.
The fundamental misconception some have is that exponentials can go on forever, rather than running out of road, peaking and going back down. Flu deaths at the beginning of each winter start going up exponentially but we don't lose our minds over that - we give out the vaccinations to the vulnerable but then live our lives as standard.
That's where we should be with Covid. In fact we've gone further than we do with the flu by giving the vaccine to those who aren't even vulnerable, which we don't normally do with the flu (albeit we're not giving it to kids so swings and roundabouts there).
Boris has FOMOed in on the top of a shitcoin chart because he's convinced himself it's going up forever. We've all been there.
This is the first experience of exponential growth many non-degenerates have ever had.
That's a great analogy.
All these people acting as if the trends will continue indefinitely - its just as nonsensical as people saying "ooh look Gamestop is rising, you must buy Gamestop stocks".
I agree
I thought Boris looked shattered at PMQ's and his defence v Starmer was huff and puff when really there is actually a good evidence based case, as shown on here that the borders were not left open, as Delta had nor been identified as such, at the dates Starmer referred to
Indeed, he is providing more credence to those who say he is just a PR PM and does not do detail or understand it
Even I could have made a better case v Starmer today than he got anywhere near to
I did not vote for brexit, nor for Boris as leader, but I accept brexit was a democratic vote and now have been convinced leaving was the correct thing to do and not to look back
As I have said on many occasions, I want Rishi as leader and as soon as possible.
Indeed I would not be averse to Jeremy Hunt or Liz Truss
However, I do not know how Boris is removed or when and as a loyal conservative I will continue to support the party but expect Boris to release us (English anyway) on the 19th July and for him to accept that we cannot beat covid, (it will be with us for decades) and affirm vaccination is our passport to freedom, though personally I would not permit foreign travel before 2022
Furthermore, I fully support the compulsory vaccination of all care home workers as we cannot put at risk those who depend on this sector as happened across the UK at the beginning of this most dreadful disease
Of course, should Boris lose C&A and not take B&S from labour, the political narrative would change
I have to say this does not feel like a country ruined by Brexit or brought to its knees by Covid. Everywhere is packed. Bars bustle. Cafes heave. Restaurants groan with customers. Shops are picking up. There are signs advertising new jobs, staff wanted, all over the place - not just hospitality
The sunshine helps but it isn’t just the sunshine. This could be quite a boom
Looking at the data as it is, it’s tempting to conclude that Sage and Boris might have just made a weapons-grade cock up.
We’ll see.
Yup by the end of this week we'll know for sure but every day 300-400k people are joining the fully vaccinated cohort looking at vaccine numbers from two weeks ago. The virus is simply running out of road and I don't understand why the data models have simply ignored this. No one is asking exactly who it is that will get struck down by the virus and which cohort is going to topple the NHS. 100k cases per day, 40k deaths in this wave. It's laughable but this is the kind of data that is driving our decision making process. If it wasn't such a disaster it would be funny.
What I find astonishing is that This Isn't Rocket Surgery.
How is it that this board (with the exception of a few crazies) has called this broadly right in aggregate, while both SAGEs have been... poor.
This is the same board that thought we already had herd immunity & hospitalizations were flat... what... a week ago?
This board - broadly speaking - was pro first lockdown ahead of Boris, and indeed pro second lockdown ahead of Boris too.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
Agree with what you wrote. But also (from my recollection at least) -> this board was broadly speaking opposed to lockdown 2/restrictions in Sept when needed & flagged by SAGE, thought COVID was over in the Summer, & thought we couldn't possibly cancel Christmas.
It currently seems to think there won't be a 3rd wave of any real significance - hopefully that's right... but the idea that hospitalizations couldn't rise looks to be pretty exploded by the fact they are up 40% in the past week...
There may also be members of this board who don't entirely agree with the others -- or think that there is false certainty in the consensus, or think that some criticisms are unfounded -- but don't care to express that view. Some of the invective does not invite debate.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Thank you for the correction. I didn't intentionally miss out Theresa, but really, only one scientist in the whole cabinet? Considering the importance, and not just at the current time, of science and engineering it is ridiculous that the cabinet is stuffed full of people with "humanities" graduates.
They have to "follow the science" because barring one (who is Work and Pensions) they don't fecking understand it! You could tell that lot that the moon is made of blue cheese and if you had a PhD in physics they would have to believe you.
Alok Sharma who was Business Secretary but now still attends Cabinet as President for COP26 also has a STEM degree in Physics and Electronics from Salford University.
However you don't need a STEM degree to make policy on science and technology issues necessarily as long as you have a range of top rank scientists and engineers to get advice from.
As I also said most top STEM graduates earn more in industry and the City than they ever would in politics so have no wish to make the move
Engineer salaries are pretty low in this country
Engineering is the 3rd most popular degree choice for FTSE 100 ceos, their average salary is £3.6 million.
If anyone needed proof that this new station was going to be a pile of horseshit read this. Every line makes you feel queasy. A bit like Peter Lilley singing to the Tory Party conference
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
Not sure how informed a 13-yr old would be to take a vaccine.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
The risk of long covid if you get covid under 18 is around 7% (Figure was on ITV news). Some parents might want to guard against that for their kids.
At what age should it be up to the kid not the parent? At 13 I could have had strong views either way and would have thought it my decision to make. Is it legally 16 or 18 when kids get autonomy on this type of decision?
16 in most cases, 18 for some categories, but there is also Gillick competence. If a child is able enough to weigh up the pros and cons of the options, their consent is valid without parental input.
Comments
I don't think he did that at Talk Radio.
Sony Music is latest after Spotify, Amazon and Apple to try to cash in on boom in audio listening
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jun/16/sony-buys-uk-podcast-producer-somethin-else
People still talk about it.
Oh, sorry, were you talking about GB news?
All these people acting as if the trends will continue indefinitely - its just as nonsensical as people saying "ooh look Gamestop is rising, you must buy Gamestop stocks".
Most other people turned it on, went this looks a bit shit and switched over.
Talking of easily triggered snowflakes...bloke writes a semi-autographical novel that was partly a work of fiction (cough cough sounds like Seant T)....gets published, top of the bestseller list, all the liberal book reviewers like....5 years later, he is hired to work with Apple after a long career in tech, an Apple employee finds one passage in the book, where he says San Francisco women are weak, they loses their shit, gets 2000 to sign a petition to get him fired.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2021/5/13/22435266/apple-employees-petition-controversial-antonio-garcia-martinez-new-hire-departure
We’re out for good, I think.
Only ten years ago I was told I should expect my salary to be my age X grand, throughout my career.
This board - broadly speaking - has been in favour of the tightest border control almost from the outset.
This board, also being broadly libertarian, is currently skeptical about the extension announced on Tuesday.
This board does appear to have a better track record than what we’ve seen from the government so far.
I can see some form of new partnership with the EU, but it will need enlightened leadership from each of U.K., France and Germany.
Could she get the numbers to spark a contest?
If she did, would she be the only challenger?
If the answer to either of those questions is ‘no,’ forget it.
Truthfully, I think she would rather wait until after an election defeat anyway. Labour face a stiff challenge in 2024 but an election in 2025 or later would be a cinch for them with this lot in charge. An ambitious younger politician therefore needs to have a fall guy for that 2024 election before scooping the pool later.
Alfred Malmros
Had Arsenal bought bitcoin instead of Mustafi they'd have £2.5bn to spend this summer.
People having a shit pandemic: ALL THE OTHER SCIENTISTS
From masks to fomites to distancing to “lab leak” to gain-of-function to the corrupt science journals to this latest SAGE fuck up. Tsk
But screw all that talk. We're winning it.
At least they pay lip service to China
It currently seems to think there won't be a 3rd wave of any real significance - hopefully that's right... but the idea that hospitalizations couldn't rise looks to be pretty exploded by the fact they are up 40% in the past week...
Also, will I get a salary rise this year?
How is consent for stuff like this normally handled ?
The problem is that it is probably the EU that would make the rejoining take years, and by that point we would probably fall foul of their pesky rules about freedom of speech.
There must be a swimming of the boffins at the end of this. Those that float shall be sent to the assizes
I think both those beliefs were correct.
The rest of your post is splendidly Ickeian.
1) Opposed the first lockdown, because I could see it would be a train crash;
2) Opposed the reopening because I could see the restrictions imposed would make life impossible, and would do nothing to stop the spread of the virus;
3) Favoured locking down again very early on when I was proved right about this;
4) When finally proved right, opposed reopening on the basis that it was a gamble imposed by Johnson and the government’s political agenda and seemed set to be an even bigger disaster;
5) Having been proved wrong on that, because of vaccines, am now firmly in favour of opening up.
But throughout, I have been frustrated at the ridiculous failure to control our borders properly. Just madness.
I was early too on the second and the third lockdown.
I still think (as I posted on the weekend) that it is a serious mistake to continue the restrictions.
Edit Bale flunked it!
Drama
I don't think it'd be enough to win though.
47% of voters think Burnham would make a good Labour leader, just 25% think Rayner would
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1393652075771400194?s=20
I thought Boris looked shattered at PMQ's and his defence v Starmer was huff and puff when really there is actually a good evidence based case, as shown on here that the borders were not left open, as Delta had nor been identified as such, at the dates Starmer referred to
Indeed, he is providing more credence to those who say he is just a PR PM and does not do detail or understand it
Even I could have made a better case v Starmer today than he got anywhere near to
I did not vote for brexit, nor for Boris as leader, but I accept brexit was a democratic vote and now have been convinced leaving was the correct thing to do and not to look back
As I have said on many occasions, I want Rishi as leader and as soon as possible.
Indeed I would not be averse to Jeremy Hunt or Liz Truss
However, I do not know how Boris is removed or when and as a loyal conservative I will continue to support the party but expect Boris to release us (English anyway) on the 19th July and for him to accept that we cannot beat covid, (it will be with us for decades) and affirm vaccination is our passport to freedom, though personally I would not permit foreign travel before 2022
Furthermore, I fully support the compulsory vaccination of all care home workers as we cannot put at risk those who depend on this sector as happened across the UK at the beginning of this most dreadful disease
Of course, should Boris lose C&A and not take B&S from labour, the political narrative would change
I have to say this does not feel like a country ruined by Brexit or brought to its knees by Covid. Everywhere is packed. Bars bustle. Cafes heave. Restaurants groan with customers. Shops are picking up. There are signs advertising new jobs, staff wanted, all over the place - not just hospitality
The sunshine helps but it isn’t just the sunshine. This could be quite a boom
--AS
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/news/where-do-top-ceos-go-university
https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/ftse-100-ceos-earn-average-annual-wage-in-just-34-hours/#:~:text=According to the HPC's most,working day being 12 hours.
The most common degree for millionaires and billionaires is engineering
https://edvoy.com/articles/which-degrees-make-the-most-millionaires/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3013896/How-earn-billions-study-engineering-s-common-degree-world-s-earners.html
Plenty of engineers work in the City too
NEW THREAD
This post is totally unrelated to my strong green position on her as next leader and next PM.