Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
It already happening. We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in a few years, stuff costs more but everyone gets paid more as well especially at the lower end where the minimum wage becomes a bit irrelevant. My wife used to be a coat check girl at a nightclub in Zurich before we met and she was paid 28CHF per hour plus tips from drunk men trying to hit on her while she was stone cold sober.
(I actually think this might lead to a similar kind of visa deal as we've struck with Australia, easy travel for under 35s to get any jobs for 3 years).
Scottish cases numbers now out and up 11% on last Wednesday, following Wales numbers down on last week.
Considering GB wide the numbers have been basically flat for 7 days, the early indications are no big increase today either. Excellent news for all except SAGE.
Funny the way everybody on here talks about SAGE now.
6 months ago, it was just me.
One of my first posts on Covid, 15 months ago, noted that we were now in a period of government by Chief Medical Officer.
Yup, I've been banging on about rule by SAGE since the middle of lockdown 1. It's intolerable to have unelected scientists hand down laws as if they were like Moses telling the masses the 10 commandments.
I agree they have had far too much sway particularly given the refusal to look at how they are using modelling.
But on the other hand Parliament has remained sovereign. There has been nothing to stop MPs not backing the renewal of covid laws.
Apart from a total lack of intellectual capacity and confidence. The Politicians do not know how to engage with 'the Scientists' other than swallowing wholesale.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
This is the text I got earlier today from "NHS-NoReply"
Pfizer FIRST DOSE vaccinations at [redacted] today for 18 & over. Walk-in, 9am-5pm.
I got a similar one yesterday, explicitly saying that time "Walk-in, no appointment needed" though its implicit in today's.
Lots of people I know are getting the same texts, presumably because they're sending them to everyone in the area. I don't know whether others on this site are getting them or not? If the NHS is sending begging texts to people and can't get people to walk in then why would you think that supply is the issue instead of demand?
If people won't walk in to a vaccine centre that doesn't need appointments then there's little more that can be done.
PS the first text I got saying anyone over 18 was back on the 25th May, so that's nearly four weeks now anyone 18+ could get Pfizer here. Four weeks later, its stragglers being caught up on.
You talk about unwilling recipients but note that it's a same-day deal. There'll be plenty working who won't even have seen the invitation, let alone being able to take time off work at the drop of a hat, and arrange childcare (or elderly care) cover.
Like me when I got the call.
@Philip_Thompson : this is not necessarily an indication that there is no problem with supply nationally. It could be that in your area that have had more refuseniks so they have a surplus of Pfizer that needs to be used before expiry. You therefore have a localised peak in supply coinciding with a localised dip in demand. This does not seem to be happening yet in Southern England.
Afternoon all. While out training my peas (which is taking up a lot of time this week - I've got about 50 plants and the biggest ones are growing 4 or 5 inches a day), I was wondering what should happen to a person who has refused the offer of vaccines, then unwittingly contracts covid, then provably though accidentally infects a person unable to get vaccinated, who subsequently dies of it.
I suppose this is unlikelier to happen now that the government have (sensibly imv) got around to insisting that carers be vaxed, but I think still possible enough to be considered hypothetically (the provability of it being the obvious weak point).
But.. hypothetically
Should it be some sort of crime? Or should we just tut about it?
What's really morally different about a vax refusing numpty wittingly taking the risk and killing someone like this, and an HIV positive person having unprotected sex?
person who has refused the offer of vaccines, then unwittingly contracts covid, then provably though accidentally infects a person unable to get vaccinated
Only truly likely in health and social care settings hence today's announcement regarding carers.
Sure, as I pretty much said in the next bit!
But it's still possible, though probably near impossible to prove.
Might, though, even the mere proposal of its consideration as a form of manslaughter in criminal law, persuade of few of the selfish numpties to get vaxed?
Much as I think antivaxxers are numpties the difficulty of proving this is going to be crazily high so from that perspective alone it doesn't need a new law. If you spat in someone's face whilst knowingly carrying Covid I'd hope it'd be a (very) aggravating factor in a potential assault charge.
As I said, the provability is the very weak point in the argument.
But, I can't help thinking that it might be a useful piece of pro-vax propaganda. If the government said they were considering proposals to make those who have refused the available and offered vaccines to diseases responsible for the legal consequences of any provable spread of them, I think a fair few may be scared into a jab.
A real example would be sad, but even more useful for the messaging. Especially if a prominent antivaxer were the perpetrator. Imagine if it was a Corbyn!
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
We should bring back the medieval maximum wage laws. That would stop all this nasty, populist, wage inflation stuff.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
It already happening. We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in a few years, stuff costs more but everyone gets paid more as well especially at the lower end where the minimum wage becomes a bit irrelevant. My wife used to be a coat check girl at a nightclub in Zurich before we met and she was paid 28CHF per hour plus tips from drunk men trying to hit on her while she was stone cold sober.
(I actually think this might lead to a similar kind of visa deal as we've struck with Australia, easy travel for under 35s to get any jobs for 3 years).
One thing I have noticed is that a lot more restaurants are asking for credit card detail/deposits when you make your reservation.
I wonder if that is a working capital issue or may even be a strategy against no shows.
Scottish cases numbers now out and up 11% on last Wednesday, following Wales numbers down on last week.
Considering GB wide the numbers have been basically flat for 7 days, the early indications are no big increase today either. Excellent news for all except SAGE.
Funny the way everybody on here talks about SAGE now.
6 months ago, it was just me.
One of my first posts on Covid, 15 months ago, noted that we were now in a period of government by Chief Medical Officer.
Yup, I've been banging on about rule by SAGE since the middle of lockdown 1. It's intolerable to have unelected scientists hand down laws as if they were like Moses telling the masses the 10 commandments.
I agree they have had far too much sway particularly given the refusal to look at how they are using modelling.
But on the other hand Parliament has remained sovereign. There has been nothing to stop MPs not backing the renewal of covid laws.
Apart from a total lack of intellectual capacity and confidence. The Politicians do not know how to engage with 'the Scientists' other than swallowing wholesale.
David Paton @cricketwyvern · 2h What is a real puzzle (to me at least) is why SAGE & other modellers continue to insist on assuming that restrictions have such a huge impact even though we now we have so much data to the contrary.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
This is the text I got earlier today from "NHS-NoReply"
Pfizer FIRST DOSE vaccinations at [redacted] today for 18 & over. Walk-in, 9am-5pm.
I got a similar one yesterday, explicitly saying that time "Walk-in, no appointment needed" though its implicit in today's.
Lots of people I know are getting the same texts, presumably because they're sending them to everyone in the area. I don't know whether others on this site are getting them or not? If the NHS is sending begging texts to people and can't get people to walk in then why would you think that supply is the issue instead of demand?
If people won't walk in to a vaccine centre that doesn't need appointments then there's little more that can be done.
PS the first text I got saying anyone over 18 was back on the 25th May, so that's nearly four weeks now anyone 18+ could get Pfizer here. Four weeks later, its stragglers being caught up on.
You talk about unwilling recipients but note that it's a same-day deal. There'll be plenty working who won't even have seen the invitation, let alone being able to take time off work at the drop of a hat, and arrange childcare (or elderly care) cover.
Like me when I got the call.
@Philip_Thompson : this is not necessarily an indication that there is no problem with supply nationally. It could be that in your area that have had more refuseniks so they have a surplus of Pfizer that needs to be used before expiry. You therefore have a localised peak in supply coinciding with a localised dip in demand. This does not seem to be happening yet in Southern England.
There's been a few pop ups in London, I know of three around the NW outer London bits and even more around East London. Take up is piss poor in the latter as Stodge reminds us about every few days!
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
Economics of small businesses don't work like that. They don't "choose", the customer does. There will be a pricing point above which the customer won't pay and the bookings cease. Staff wages and premises cost largely determine the viability of that pricing model.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
This is the text I got earlier today from "NHS-NoReply"
Pfizer FIRST DOSE vaccinations at [redacted] today for 18 & over. Walk-in, 9am-5pm.
I got a similar one yesterday, explicitly saying that time "Walk-in, no appointment needed" though its implicit in today's.
Lots of people I know are getting the same texts, presumably because they're sending them to everyone in the area. I don't know whether others on this site are getting them or not? If the NHS is sending begging texts to people and can't get people to walk in then why would you think that supply is the issue instead of demand?
If people won't walk in to a vaccine centre that doesn't need appointments then there's little more that can be done.
PS the first text I got saying anyone over 18 was back on the 25th May, so that's nearly four weeks now anyone 18+ could get Pfizer here. Four weeks later, its stragglers being caught up on.
Yes but you're in the Northwest Phil, vaccinations have been pushed to your area more quickly than the general rollout due to being the epicentre of the delta surge.
Absolutely! Which is completely logical since this is where the virus is.
But the point is that those here who are keenest on being vaccinated, already are. Nobody who is eager is still waiting. There's no new groups to open up to. They can't possibly expand eligibility any further than being eligible to everyone already.
What's true of the Northwest will be true nationwide before the end of the week - and its probably true already in much of the nation since 21+ is the slowest pace now not the fastest.
Where are you in NW btw Philip? I know you've mentioned Warrington before, but didn't understand that to be your current location.
AFAICT, Kirklees have been running an average of one walk in clinic per day in the Dewsbury/Batley half of the borough, and usually only for a couple of hours. I've seen no texts, not a single new email from the local public health director (which have been a regular feature throughout) and had only the one standard national cancel/rebook text which might have moved my vaccine by a few days. And I know they've had the odd walk in in Sheffield as well, which has pretty low rates at the moment. So, I concluded nothing special is going on, despite being an identified Delta area.
I noted your reply to my comment that Bolton was below national rates, stating separate data sources for national and local - I've not gone back to compare locality Vs locality to see whether Bolton is forging ahead or not, so I'm reserving judgement on that: it didn't look obviously to be the case.
But, I would have expected more communication, and to my view, no special effort seems to have been made.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
It already happening. We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in a few years, stuff costs more but everyone gets paid more as well especially at the lower end where the minimum wage becomes a bit irrelevant. My wife used to be a coat check girl at a nightclub in Zurich before we met and she was paid 28CHF per hour plus tips from drunk men trying to hit on her while she was stone cold sober.
(I actually think this might lead to a similar kind of visa deal as we've struck with Australia, easy travel for under 35s to get any jobs for 3 years).
One thing I have noticed is that a lot more restaurants are asking for credit card detail/deposits when you make your reservation.
I wonder if that is a working capital issue or may even be a strategy against no shows.
Strategy against no shows. Places in London have been doing it for ages (at least a few years). The credit card deposit isn't charged unless there is a no show so it's now useful for working capital.
Privately, Lib Dems are feeling v positive about the contest. Obviously tall order to win but sources say they’re getting great reaction locally on basis of a) discontent with housing development/changes to planning and b) sense true blue south increasingly being ignored by GOVT"
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
It already happening. We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in a few years, stuff costs more but everyone gets paid more as well especially at the lower end where the minimum wage becomes a bit irrelevant. My wife used to be a coat check girl at a nightclub in Zurich before we met and she was paid 28CHF per hour plus tips from drunk men trying to hit on her while she was stone cold sober.
(I actually think this might lead to a similar kind of visa deal as we've struck with Australia, easy travel for under 35s to get any jobs for 3 years).
One thing I have noticed is that a lot more restaurants are asking for credit card detail/deposits when you make your reservation.
I wonder if that is a working capital issue or may even be a strategy against no shows.
Smart. Get the customer to pay upfront for the ingredients. I dare say traditional sources of working capital finance have completely dried up for them.
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Afternoon all. While out training my peas (which is taking up a lot of time this week - I've got about 50 plants and the biggest ones are growing 4 or 5 inches a day), I was wondering what should happen to a person who has refused the offer of vaccines, then unwittingly contracts covid, then provably though accidentally infects a person unable to get vaccinated, who subsequently dies of it.
I suppose this is unlikelier to happen now that the government have (sensibly imv) got around to insisting that carers be vaxed, but I think still possible enough to be considered hypothetically (the provability of it being the obvious weak point).
What's really morally different about a vax refusing numpty wittingly taking the risk and killing someone like this, and an HIV positive person having unprotected sex?
I find this sort of comment terrifying, even as someone who has had their first jab.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
It already happening. We're going to look a lot more like Switzerland in a few years, stuff costs more but everyone gets paid more as well especially at the lower end where the minimum wage becomes a bit irrelevant. My wife used to be a coat check girl at a nightclub in Zurich before we met and she was paid 28CHF per hour plus tips from drunk men trying to hit on her while she was stone cold sober.
(I actually think this might lead to a similar kind of visa deal as we've struck with Australia, easy travel for under 35s to get any jobs for 3 years).
One thing I have noticed is that a lot more restaurants are asking for credit card detail/deposits when you make your reservation.
I wonder if that is a working capital issue or may even be a strategy against no shows.
I was told by one that this is a strategy against no-shows. Apparently, people were booking multiple places so that they could choose where to go on the spur of the moment etc.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
Afternoon all. While out training my peas (which is taking up a lot of time this week - I've got about 50 plants and the biggest ones are growing 4 or 5 inches a day), I was wondering what should happen to a person who has refused the offer of vaccines, then unwittingly contracts covid, then provably though accidentally infects a person unable to get vaccinated, who subsequently dies of it.
I suppose this is unlikelier to happen now that the government have (sensibly imv) got around to insisting that carers be vaxed, but I think still possible enough to be considered hypothetically (the provability of it being the obvious weak point).
What's really morally different about a vax refusing numpty wittingly taking the risk and killing someone like this, and an HIV positive person having unprotected sex?
I find this sort of comment terrifying, even as someone who has had their first jab.
I certainly think all medical staff and carers should have the flu jab. Don't you?
I find it rather more terrifying that we have enough idiots about refusing protection to a deadly disease for themselves and those connected to them for it to potentially cause more deaths than HIV/AIDS did.
Privately, Lib Dems are feeling v positive about the contest. Obviously tall order to win but sources say they’re getting great reaction locally on basis of a) discontent with housing development/changes to planning and b) sense true blue south increasingly being ignored by GOVT"
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Question is- how far is Dom along the "everyone who deals with B Johnson ends up regretting it" timeline? Sounds like he's still at the "The King could be good, it's his courtiers who are the problem" stage.
(Dom doesn't matter, natch. But calibration of the onset of the "I helped create this monster and I regret that" stage would be useful.)
Reading Cummings' messages - I'm not sure they make him out to look good really.
He seems to have been spamming everyone with random messages & inane offers of help.
"We got assets like former commanding officer of SAS volunteered to help on operations where required, is this something for him etc." "WWI style convalescing required"
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
Herd Immunity Threshold is ≈ 1 - 1/r0
Although I think things are way more complicated than that if I have understood some of the discussions.
This thread hits on one of the big lexit arguments in favour of brexit, a shift in the balance from capital to labour as the latter is a smaller pool.
It has some merit with regard to low-skilled labour, where the demand is generally national or local but the supply is Europe-wide. Less so as regards to high-skilled labour, where both the supply and demand are more EU-wide in some sectors.
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Whereas everyone just loves Dom Cummings!
Classic narcissist - everything is everybody else's fault except his.
I haven't read the screed, but I have summarised it anyway.
I trust that the Lib Dems in Oxfordshire are also calling for more construction in the local area to ensure that the people they want to come to the area have somewhere to live?
You wouldn't want to encourage people to come live in an area but have nowhere to live surely now would you? 🤔
I'm sure the Lib Dems would be very happy to encourage more building, but as I said in a previous post, building expensive estates with the cheapest house at least £300000 is not going to help immigrants or local younger people with accomodation. The brown field sites and disused factory and town centre sites are better in that they can be converted into starter homes and smaller houses and flats, thus allowing more local younger people and immigrant workers find a place to live.
And as I've said before you're completely wrong in that, because you don't understand trickle-down housing. While trickle-down economics is debated, trickle-down housing is undeniable. Housing works via chains afterall. People don't need two houses to live in generally.
If you build 10,000 shit boxey hovels then all you have is 10,000 new shit boxey hovels to live in. The only people to possibly gain are looking to live in shit boxey hovels.
If you build 10,000 very good new homes then you have 10,000 households able to vacate above average homes to move into the very good ones. 10,000 households can move from average homes into the above average ones. 10,000 households in below average homes can move into the vacated average ones. 10,000 households from shit boxey hovels can now move into the below average homes. And now you have 10,000 vacant shit boxey hovels available, for those looking for shit boxey hovels, just as first time around, without having constructed them.
In scenario one all you gain is 10,000 shit boxey hovels. In scenario two you've gained 10,000 new quality homes and 50,000 households now have better homes, everyone wins
What do you have to gain from offering only shit boxey hovels instead of building more good homes?
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
Herd Immunity Threshold is ≈ 1 - 1/r0
Although I think things are way more complicated than that if I have understood some of the discussions.
I think its complicated because there is no such things as an R0 for a virus, as it depends on human behaviour. Thus in a sparsely populated area there will be less chance for infection than in the middle of London with the tube running. So the herd immunity threshold is not uniform across the country. I think the case growth is slowing and illustrating this point, as the delta variant moves out of the inner city locations its finding it harder to spread. I think we are pretty sure now we are not seeing an explosion of cases, rather a rise that will probably become more and more limited as vaccinations continue.
Privately, Lib Dems are feeling v positive about the contest. Obviously tall order to win but sources say they’re getting great reaction locally on basis of a) discontent with housing development/changes to planning and b) sense true blue south increasingly being ignored by GOVT"
Labour were second in Chesham and Amersham as recently as 2017. I'm slightly uneasy about reports of LibDem optimism that do not mention a continued Labour squeeze.
This thread hits on one of the big lexit arguments in favour of brexit, a shift in the balance from capital to labour as the latter is a smaller pool.
Indeed. Plus higher wages = a desire for higher productivity to reduce unit cost = more training + more capital investment = a desire to retain difficult to replace staff who have been invested in and a commercial need to treat them decently.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
I hope vaccinations are opened to 12 - 17. Parents and the adolescent should be presented the risks and benefits of vaccination (A tiny chance of myocarditis vs a highish chance of long covid) and unlike adults I don't see it nearly the same "duty" wise for teenagers to get jabbed - but I'd hope they'd be offered it, and allowed to take their own decisions on the matter.
Not sure how informed a 13-yr old would be to take a vaccine.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
This is something ministers will need to address soon. After July 19th will we still be testing, tracing and expecting contacts to isolate even if double vaxxed? Will people comply? https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1405180430475726851
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 3m Despite a big headline figure day today (9,055 UK cases) the estimate of R continues to fall slightly, as the trajectory continues to turn right, as we'd hope.
*Remember "going up less steeply" is not as good as "peaked"* but possible to look at this and feel a bit optimistic.
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Whereas everyone just loves Dom Cummings!
Classic narcissist - everything is everybody else's fault except his.
I haven't read the screed, but I have summarised it anyway.
Indeed, hence the original attraction between himself and Boris Johnson, birds of a feather and all that. Then it became "I am the fairest", "no I am the fairest"!!
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 8m Huge further drop in cases growth. Now down to just 32%. Step 4 postponement decision looking just embarrassing now. One almost feels sorry for the decision-makers involved.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
The more people say fine dining is going to pot because the restaurants cant pay EU migrants minimum wage any more, the more I get the feeling there was something in the wage supression "theory"/reality that was the whole reason Leave won
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Whereas everyone just loves Dom Cummings!
Classic narcissist - everything is everybody else's fault except his.
I haven't read the screed, but I have summarised it anyway.
Indeed, hence the original attraction between himself and Boris Johnson, birds of a feather and all that. Then it became "I am the fairest", "no I am the fairest"!!
Yes but aren't a scary proportion of CEOs and politicians of all stripes narcissistic psychopaths? Something about telling people what they want to hear goes down very well with recruitment boards and electorates.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico "In essence, the UK authorities have been spooked by around five to seven days of bad data that unfortunately came in just as they were making the decision. New data already makes that call look obsolete."
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 8m Huge further drop in cases growth. Now down to just 32%. Step 4 postponement decision looking just embarrassing now. One almost feels sorry for the decision-makers involved.
I don't feel sorry for the fucking decision makers I feel sorry for us.
Have yesterday and today had 2x emails from theatres saying that booked performances will now not go ahead.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
The more people say fine dining is going to pot because the restaurants cant pay EU migrants minimum wage any more, the more I get the feeling there was something in the wage supression "theory"/reality that was the whole reason Leave won
Fine dining in London was popular with hedge-fund types and rich tourists, both groups missing in action lately.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
This is the text I got earlier today from "NHS-NoReply"
Pfizer FIRST DOSE vaccinations at [redacted] today for 18 & over. Walk-in, 9am-5pm.
I got a similar one yesterday, explicitly saying that time "Walk-in, no appointment needed" though its implicit in today's.
Lots of people I know are getting the same texts, presumably because they're sending them to everyone in the area. I don't know whether others on this site are getting them or not? If the NHS is sending begging texts to people and can't get people to walk in then why would you think that supply is the issue instead of demand?
If people won't walk in to a vaccine centre that doesn't need appointments then there's little more that can be done.
PS the first text I got saying anyone over 18 was back on the 25th May, so that's nearly four weeks now anyone 18+ could get Pfizer here. Four weeks later, its stragglers being caught up on.
You talk about unwilling recipients but note that it's a same-day deal. There'll be plenty working who won't even have seen the invitation, let alone being able to take time off work at the drop of a hat, and arrange childcare (or elderly care) cover.
Like me when I got the call.
@Philip_Thompson : this is not necessarily an indication that there is no problem with supply nationally. It could be that in your area that have had more refuseniks so they have a surplus of Pfizer that needs to be used before expiry. You therefore have a localised peak in supply coinciding with a localised dip in demand. This does not seem to be happening yet in Southern England.
Oh absolutely I acknowledge that its not the same nationwide.
But my point is that locally they can't open up to any more groups anymore as they've already opened to everyone - and as of this weekend what's true for us locally will be true for the entire country.
Most of us on this site signed up the day we were eligible or even before we were technically eligible. There's a minority of adults who don't want it or will be tardy in getting it: some locales are already at that point but all will be by no later than this weekend.
It's very hard to see how predictions of 15,000 cases a day by 21st June could now be met.
The rate of increase has fallen from 66% on 9th June to 31% today, and is 20%, week on week, suggesting a further fall in coming days.
or indeed 50,000 - the models are just miles out. It's like they modelled on an open ended basis without any impact from the reality of a finite population with an ever shrinking number of possible victims.
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Whereas everyone just loves Dom Cummings!
Classic narcissist - everything is everybody else's fault except his.
I haven't read the screed, but I have summarised it anyway.
Indeed, hence the original attraction between himself and Boris Johnson, birds of a feather and all that. Then it became "I am the fairest", "no I am the fairest"!!
Yes but aren't a scary proportion of CEOs and politicians of all stripes narcissistic psychopaths? Something about telling people what they want to hear goes down very well with recruitment boards and electorates.
Yes, it is suggested that there is a correlation between narcissistic psychopathy and senior leadership, but most leadership "opinion leaders" definitely do not suggest this is a good thing. Leadership theory is now not based on "telling people what they want to hear" but is based on what is now known as "servant leadership", where the leader takes a more humble position, and looks to provide a service to his/her team. It still has a long way to go though, but it has been proven to work. Politics is still way behind large corporations in this area.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico "In essence, the UK authorities have been spooked by around five to seven days of bad data that unfortunately came in just as they were making the decision. New data already makes that call look obsolete."
The only question now is will anyone involved have the humility to use the 2 week break clause they talked about?
And if not, will there be any scope to believe they're not acting in bad faith?
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 8m Huge further drop in cases growth. Now down to just 32%. Step 4 postponement decision looking just embarrassing now. One almost feels sorry for the decision-makers involved.
I don't feel sorry for the fucking decision makers I feel sorry for us.
Have yesterday and today had 2x emails from theatres saying that booked performances will now not go ahead.
As I have posted before: the modelling types and indie SAGE have lashed themselves so firmly to the Delta Disaster prediction that they have no way out now. Surely a furious Johnson will open fully up in a month or so whatever their latest goat entrails are saying. Embarrassing.
9k cases today, up 20% on last week after a full week of c. 7.6k
Absolutely no sign of the 60% exponential death loop we were promised Monday night.
The week-on-week seven-day rate has fallen very sharply again – down seven points or so on yesterday.
Noise?....
I think it could have been written off as noise had today come in at 11k+ and backfilled a lot of weekend data and Monday with a bigger number. It wasn't and came in at almost exactly what was expected. The WoW increase has slowed down to just 24% when looking at the single day data for the 14th.
I think if we look at the PCR positive rate it's even better it's only about 10% and this is measuring symptomatic COVID cases rather than LFTs which mostly pick up asymptomatic ones. By the end of this week we might actually start seeing the symptomatic COVID case rate tip into contraction but it will be hidden by LFTs for another week.
Boris got bounced into this by scientists claiming 60% WoW case growth indefinitely but the actual real world data is showing a slowdown in case growth already and it won't be long until cases are falling again. There's no accountability with them and MPs need to hammer Boris and the scientists for this unnecessary 4 week extension. We're all paying the price for their zero COVID agenda and fake news data models.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 3m Despite a big headline figure day today (9,055 UK cases) the estimate of R continues to fall slightly, as the trajectory continues to turn right, as we'd hope.
*Remember "going up less steeply" is not as good as "peaked"* but possible to look at this and feel a bit optimistic.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
I've now read the rather long-winded but excoriating screed published by Dom Cummings this morning. I'm happy to summarise it for those readers who can't be arsed to do the same:
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him. Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
Sounds like one of those rare occasions when his judgments are spot on.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
9k cases today, up 20% on last week after a full week of c. 7.6k
Absolutely no sign of the 60% exponential death loop we were promised Monday night.
The week-on-week seven-day rate has fallen very sharply again – down seven points or so on yesterday.
Noise?....
I think it could have been written off as noise had today come in at 11k+ and backfilled a lot of weekend data and Monday with a bigger number. It wasn't and came in at almost exactly what was expected. The WoW increase has slowed down to just 24% when looking at the single day data for the 14th.
I think if we look at the PCR positive rate it's even better it's only about 10% and this is measuring symptomatic COVID cases rather than LFTs which mostly pick up asymptomatic ones. By the end of this week we might actually start seeing the symptomatic COVID case rate tip into contraction but it will be hidden by LFTs for another week.
Boris got bounced into this by scientists claiming 60% WoW case growth indefinitely but the actual real world data is showing a slowdown in case growth already and it won't be long until cases are falling again. There's no accountability with them and MPs need to hammer Boris and the scientists for this unnecessary 4 week extension. We're all paying the price for their zero COVID agenda and fake news data models.
Indefinite 60% WoW case growth was never f***ing possible because of the amount of immunity in the herd already.
Case growth can only sustainably occur in the pockets of areas where people are unvaccinated - either the ever-diminishing amount of unvaccinated young, or the refuseniks whose own damned fault it is that they're unvaccinated.
Past that the virus smashes into a wall of vaccinations. The vaccinations are working as intended, but they don't work if you refuse it.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
You ignored Therese Coffey the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who has a Chemistry degree from Oxford and a PhD in Chemistry from UCL.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
The more people say fine dining is going to pot because the restaurants cant pay EU migrants minimum wage any more, the more I get the feeling there was something in the wage supression "theory"/reality that was the whole reason Leave won
Fine dining in London was popular with hedge-fund types and rich tourists, both groups missing in action lately.
Actually, central London at night is wonderful right now. Everything is open, but with far fewer people than normal. But, I acknowledge that is unsustainable. Ditto Oxford, where I was on Monday. These places need vast hordes of tourists.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
For one thing we've told the 20-somethings for months now they're not at much risk and they all know their parents and grandparents are already vaccinated too.
For another the 20-somethings have been getting vaccinated for weeks now. There's always been some getting vaccinated ahead of schedule but that can't happen now effectively. Since all over 18s have been able to get the jab for weeks now in many areas, there's nobody else to open it up to. The most eager over 18s or 20-somethings have already been jabbed.
As Dr Robert Malone (inventor of mRNA vaccines and a supporter of the principle) said recently, it breaks bio-ethics principles to jab people for whom the risk of death from vaccine exceeds the risk of death from COVID. Offering ice creams in return for jabs is distasteful. So is the UK use of psy-ops (i.e. most of SAGE) to persuade people to do something irreversible that does them more harm than good.
Dr John Campbell has now done several talks on Ivermectin and its 99.99% non-use in this country. It's as if the entire NHS is corrupted and hospital doctors (salaried employeees) are threatened with the sack for speaking out, e.g. writing to the BMJ on these vaccines' side-effects. So they'll say what they're told to say to pay their mortgage. Mostly only retired docs say what they believe. A few GPs are resigning in disgust ...
And yet, bizarrely, places that went the vaccine route have gotten rid of both Covid and restrictions on freedom. While the evidence for the efficacy of Ivermectin is modest: it helps a little, but nowhere near as much as not getting the diseases at all, and doesn't help crush the prevalence and spread of Covid.
Still I salute you for enabling me to save time in future by ignoring your posts.
More ex scientists and engineers un parliament would be a good start. More fundamentally the whole area of policy based on scientific advice needs a big reset. Unconscious biases, group-think, ideological influences, noble cause corruption, desperation for publication and gaining grants, ineffective and biased peer review. Much more openness for models and data when policy is involved and automatic use of red teams would be a start.
Good point. I have long been an advocate for diversity in teams, and this doesn't just refer to ethnicity gender etc., it also refers to people's training and background. I know there has been some change but it is still the case that the majority of Whitehall civil servants are Oxbridge, oft educated (like our Glorious Leader) in subjects like Classics and rarely in science. As for the cabinet:
It was the decision of the PM and Cabinet, not scientists. If they are too dull, or lazy or complacent to ask pertinent questions of the scientists, then that reflects even worse on them.
Saint George was born in Cappadocia which is in modern day Turkey.
I’m perfectly comfortable cheering on Wales.
I spent 4 years of my life in Aber. I can even spell Welsh words like “ambiwlans”
Years of disgusting and unprovoked abuse from Welsh rugby fans have left me anyone but Wales.
Ditto. I also laughed when Scotland lost for similar reason. To be fair though to the Welsh, I have often sat next to them at rugby games and they have been very pleasant, and I certainly have never experienced "abuse". Not so the Scots, sadly, some of their supporters are absolute w*******
Saint George was born in Cappadocia which is in modern day Turkey.
I’m perfectly comfortable cheering on Wales.
I spent 4 years of my life in Aber. I can even spell Welsh words like “ambiwlans”
I am happy to cheer on England sides and the UK athletes at the Olympics or the GB team in Davis cup or the British Lions but I am not Scottish or Welsh or Irish so am neutral when they don't play England
Saint George was born in Cappadocia which is in modern day Turkey.
I’m perfectly comfortable cheering on Wales.
I spent 4 years of my life in Aber. I can even spell Welsh words like “ambiwlans”
Years of disgusting and unprovoked abuse from Welsh rugby fans have left me anyone but Wales.
Ditto. I also laughed when Scotland lost for similar reason. To be fair though to the Welsh, I have often sat next to them at rugby games and they have been very pleasant, and I certainly have never experienced "abuse". Not so the Scots, sadly, some of their supporters are absolute w*******
I absolutely love the Scots and the fans of their national teams.
Both association football and rugby football, plus cricket.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
The more people say fine dining is going to pot because the restaurants cant pay EU migrants minimum wage any more, the more I get the feeling there was something in the wage supression "theory"/reality that was the whole reason Leave won
Fine dining in London was popular with hedge-fund types and rich tourists, both groups missing in action lately.
And in the case of the latter will surely be missing for some time. Here in Spain, which is desperate to pull in the tourist hordes, the most optimistic forecast suggest figures around 40% of a 'normal' year. With or without government dictats it will take time for the return to normality to occur and inevitably it is the 'discretionaries' which will suffer first and the most.
Also notable that the increase in reported cases today doesn't come from the North West - further confirmation that this 'wave' peaks locally very quickly and then runs out of road at a level which is no threat to the NHS.
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
For one thing we've told the 20-somethings for months now they're not at much risk and they all know their parents and grandparents are already vaccinated too.
For another the 20-somethings have been getting vaccinated for weeks now. There's always been some getting vaccinated ahead of schedule but that can't happen now effectively. Since all over 18s have been able to get the jab for weeks now in many areas, there's nobody else to open it up to. The most eager over 18s or 20-somethings have already been jabbed.
As Dr Robert Malone (inventor of mRNA vaccines and a supporter of the principle) said recently, it breaks bio-ethics principles to jab people for whom the risk of death from vaccine exceeds the risk of death from COVID. Offering ice creams in return for jabs is distasteful. So is the UK use of psy-ops (i.e. most of SAGE) to persuade people to do something irreversible that does them more harm than good.
Dr John Campbell has now done several talks on Ivermectin and its 99.99% non-use in this country. It's as if the entire NHS is corrupted and hospital doctors (salaried employeees) are threatened with the sack for speaking out, e.g. writing to the BMJ on these vaccines' side-effects. So they'll say what they're told to say to pay their mortgage. Mostly only retired docs say what they believe. A few GPs are resigning in disgust ...
And yet, bizarrely, places that went the vaccine route have gotten rid of both Covid and restrictions on freedom. While the evidence for the efficacy of Ivermectin is modest: it helps a little, but nowhere near as much as not getting the diseases at all, and doesn't help crush the prevalence and spread of Covid.
Still I salute you for enabling me to save time in future by ignoring your posts.
Thank you so much; I'll ignore yours too if you don't understand or respect the scientific method and are unaware how many successful trials there have been. In that respect, you're rather like the doctors and scientists who instead of speaking out have kept their mouths shut or said the opposite of what they know to be true, usually to preserve their career & status and pay the mortgage.
Also notable that the increase in reported cases today doesn't come from the North West - further confirmation that this 'wave' peaks locally very quickly and then runs out of road at a level which is no threat to the NHS.
and going even more local, Bolton & Blackburn both reported new cases below 100 for the first time in weeks.
These companies must be running these tours at a loss if they can't fill the trains up. This bit made me laugh:
Face masks are mandatory on all of our trains, except for certain exemptions (please refer to page 9). You are allowed to remove the face mask when eating or drinking, but the mask must be worn at all other times. When boarding the train, moving around the train or embarking, then the wearing of face masks is mandatory.If you have forgotten to bring face masks with you, we do have a limited number available.
Very easy to be eating and/or drinking the whole way there and the whole way back!
The average gap moves up to 80 days. Rather than bringing jabs forward, some people are binning off their second !
On the plus side we're over 79% of adults for firsts and 45% of the whole pop is fully vaxxed.
The vaccine rollout is done. Now we're catching up with stragglers and waiting for second doses to be ready to go. Yet another reason we shouldn't be extending lockdown.
Despite already being vaccinated I got yet another text today advising me that Pfizer is available at a walk-in clinic near me for anyone over 18 "no appointment necessary". Been getting these texts from the NHS almost daily lately. They're not finding people to vaccinate anymore, so why should we still be locked down?
I don’t understand why we aren’t having large numbers of first doses for 20-somethings.
Worrying.
First doses are all Pfizer or Moderna, so they're not going to get up above 1.5m a week. Even at that rate they're covering 3 years of age cohort a week so it doesn't make much difference unless we see a bigger demand in the group who simply haven't bothered.
I haven't seen an evidence that people aren't bothering. Wales will be going above 90% of adults, fairly soon, for example.
The supply of vaccinations is limited.
I have heard it said that 83% of the total population need to have immunity for herd effects to kick in. Can’t be far off now, given maybe 30-40% of the unvaccinated already have some level fo acquired immunity.
30-40% of the unvaccinated haven't had COVID.
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
83% is the most recent number that I have heard from private sector modelling. I don’t see why it’s of any less value than the junk modelling given to us repeatedly by the dream team of academia and the government.
Also notable that the increase in reported cases today doesn't come from the North West - further confirmation that this 'wave' peaks locally very quickly and then runs out of road at a level which is no threat to the NHS.
Based on the experience of the Delta variant in India it is has a steep curve both sides of the wave. I think we will be back to below 2000 cases within 3 weeks.
Bugger, I was really looking forward to going back here this summer.
The renowned Manchester restaurant backed by Pep Guardiola has had to close its fine-dining concept for the summer, after Brexit has triggered a massive hospitality staffing crisis.
Tast's director says that the restaurant's staff were at risk of 'burning out' trying to make up the shortfall in workers, leaving bosses to make the 'impossible' decision to temporarily close Enxaneta.
The fine-dining restaurant space is on the top floor of Tast on King Street and has been tipped for a Michelin star since it opened in 2019.
Sandra Martorell, director of the popular business, said that Tast has always tried to bring a taste of Barcelona to Manchester, but that Brexit is making it very difficult to bring employees over from Spain.
Many of the restaurant's workforce went home to be with family during the pandemic, and it's now too complicated for many to return.
Yeah, it is frustrating as most UK workers don't know how to make this Spanish food.
It really is lovely.
But makes me wonder, if this is happening in Manchester, what must it be like in London?
20 years of wage inflation in about 3 months.
I'm sure that won't lead to an increase prices.
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
The Brexiteers wanted to take us back to the good old days of the 1950s. "What's wrong with good old British food?" I hear them cry! British Rail sarnies all round!
Nah, it just means that people will pay more for their restaurant eating, especially at the top end which is people like us who can afford it. Don't forget that restaurants can simply avoid all do the visa issues by having jobs that pay enough money. The issues here are they aren't willing to do that. If they choose bankruptcy over paying a proper wage then that's really on them.
The more people say fine dining is going to pot because the restaurants cant pay EU migrants minimum wage any more, the more I get the feeling there was something in the wage supression "theory"/reality that was the whole reason Leave won
Fine dining in London was popular with hedge-fund types and rich tourists, both groups missing in action lately.
Actually, central London at night is wonderful right now. Everything is open, but with far fewer people than normal. But, I acknowledge that is unsustainable. Ditto Oxford, where I was on Monday. These places need vast hordes of tourists.
It is the best argument going for wealth inequality on a grand scale - I'm sure Roger of this parish would love to see those poor burgers! in Hartlepool and Stoke kept there for ever and ever.
Also notable that the increase in reported cases today doesn't come from the North West - further confirmation that this 'wave' peaks locally very quickly and then runs out of road at a level which is no threat to the NHS.
and going even more local, Bolton & Blackburn both reported new cases below 100 for the first time in weeks.
Virus burning out.
Just as I predicted. Why could nobody in SAGE think this through? 🤦♂️
If the virus can grow exponentially in the unvaccinated, but not in the vaccinated, then at 80% vaccinated it can't grow exponentially for long. That's just basic maths and logic, why can't their "models" think that through?
Also notable that the increase in reported cases today doesn't come from the North West - further confirmation that this 'wave' peaks locally very quickly and then runs out of road at a level which is no threat to the NHS.
and going even more local, Bolton & Blackburn both reported new cases below 100 for the first time in weeks.
Virus burning out.
Just as I predicted. Why could nobody in SAGE think this through? 🤦♂️
If the virus can grow exponentially in the unvaccinated, but not in the vaccinated, then at 80% vaccinated it can't grow exponentially for long. That's just basic maths and logic, why can't their "models" think that through?
The models are so far off from an even handed view that I just struggle to think of an explanation which doesn't involve bias in either the people doing the model or the people comissioning it.
Comments
Jeez, I may need to quadruple my budgets for trips to London
(I actually think this might lead to a similar kind of visa deal as we've struck with Australia, easy travel for under 35s to get any jobs for 3 years).
Dom thinks Boris is an absolutely useless PM, a liar and a charlatan, but has a historic, grudging affection for him.
Dom thinks Hancock is an absolutely useless SoS, a liar and a charlatan, and also has a visceral personal dislike of him.
But, I can't help thinking that it might be a useful piece of pro-vax propaganda. If the government said they were considering proposals to make those who have refused the available and offered vaccines to diseases responsible for the legal consequences of any provable spread of them, I think a fair few may be scared into a jab.
A real example would be sad, but even more useful for the messaging. Especially if a prominent antivaxer were the perpetrator. Imagine if it was a Corbyn!
I wonder if that is a working capital issue or may even be a strategy against no shows.
@cricketwyvern
·
2h
What is a real puzzle (to me at least) is why SAGE & other modellers continue to insist on assuming that restrictions have such a huge impact even though we now we have so much data to the contrary.
AFAICT, Kirklees have been running an average of one walk in clinic per day in the Dewsbury/Batley half of the borough, and usually only for a couple of hours. I've seen no texts, not a single new email from the local public health director (which have been a regular feature throughout) and had only the one standard national cancel/rebook text which might have moved my vaccine by a few days. And I know they've had the odd walk in in Sheffield as well, which has pretty low rates at the moment. So, I concluded nothing special is going on, despite being an identified Delta area.
I noted your reply to my comment that Bolton was below national rates, stating separate data sources for national and local - I've not gone back to compare locality Vs locality to see whether Bolton is forging ahead or not, so I'm reserving judgement on that: it didn't look obviously to be the case.
But, I would have expected more communication, and to my view, no special effort seems to have been made.
Privately, Lib Dems are feeling v positive about the contest. Obviously tall order to win but sources say they’re getting great reaction locally on basis of a) discontent with housing development/changes to planning and b) sense true blue south increasingly being ignored by GOVT"
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1405165376858640384
The antibody surveys show that antibody levels are only running at a few percent above the vaccination rate.
83% is so precise a number as to be nonsense - It is highly dependent on the R number, which people are still guessing
No country has got near 83% of population vaccinated. I believe that Canada is currently in the lead with 65%
The UK is on 61% - remember that the headline figures you see are for adults (18+) only.
1-0 Russia FT
I find it rather more terrifying that we have enough idiots about refusing protection to a deadly disease for themselves and those connected to them for it to potentially cause more deaths than HIV/AIDS did.
Absolutely no sign of the 60% exponential death loop we were promised Monday night.
(Dom doesn't matter, natch. But calibration of the onset of the "I helped create this monster and I regret that" stage would be useful.)
He seems to have been spamming everyone with random messages & inane offers of help.
"We got assets like former commanding officer of SAS volunteered to help on operations where required, is this something for him etc."
"WWI style convalescing required"
Although I think things are way more complicated than that if I have understood some of the discussions.
I haven't read the screed, but I have summarised it anyway.
If you build 10,000 shit boxey hovels then all you have is 10,000 new shit boxey hovels to live in. The only people to possibly gain are looking to live in shit boxey hovels.
If you build 10,000 very good new homes then you have 10,000 households able to vacate above average homes to move into the very good ones.
10,000 households can move from average homes into the above average ones.
10,000 households in below average homes can move into the vacated average ones.
10,000 households from shit boxey hovels can now move into the below average homes.
And now you have 10,000 vacant shit boxey hovels available, for those looking for shit boxey hovels, just as first time around, without having constructed them.
In scenario one all you gain is 10,000 shit boxey hovels. In scenario two you've gained 10,000 new quality homes and 50,000 households now have better homes, everyone wins
What do you have to gain from offering only shit boxey hovels instead of building more good homes?
Noise?....
Johnson: Classics, Oxford
Sunak: PPE, Oxford
Patel: Govt and Politics, Essex
Raab: Law, Cambridge
Gove: English, Oxford
Truss: PPE, Oxford
Hancock: PPE, Oxford
Williamson: Social Sciences, Bradford
Dowden: Law, Cambridge
Ben Wallace, Sandhurst
Not an ology amongst them!
Its all good and long overdue.
Anyway didn't I see on bbc news that children weren't going to be taking it?
Why should they in any case? A minute risk from Covid (one in a million as described on the radio this morning) to keep their vaccinated grandparents...er, safe.
@andrew_lilico
·
2m
Massive further drop in R to 1.28.
Oliver Johnson
@BristOliver
· 3m
Despite a big headline figure day today (9,055 UK cases) the estimate of R continues to fall slightly, as the trajectory continues to turn right, as we'd hope.
*Remember "going up less steeply" is not as good as "peaked"* but possible to look at this and feel a bit optimistic.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
8m
Huge further drop in cases growth. Now down to just 32%. Step 4 postponement decision looking just embarrassing now. One almost feels sorry for the decision-makers involved.
The rate of increase has fallen from 66% on 9th June to 31% today, and is 20%, week on week, suggesting a further fall in coming days.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
"In essence, the UK authorities have been spooked by around five to seven days of bad data that unfortunately came in just as they were making the decision. New data already makes that call look obsolete."
Have yesterday and today had 2x emails from theatres saying that booked performances will now not go ahead.
Had a small punt on them to beat turkye @2.98
It’s probably not value. Just for my amusement.
But my point is that locally they can't open up to any more groups anymore as they've already opened to everyone - and as of this weekend what's true for us locally will be true for the entire country.
Most of us on this site signed up the day we were eligible or even before we were technically eligible. There's a minority of adults who don't want it or will be tardy in getting it: some locales are already at that point but all will be by no later than this weekend.
Saint George was born in Cappadocia which is in modern day Turkey.
The blessed Margaret in your profile picture was a barrister.
And if not, will there be any scope to believe they're not acting in bad faith?
I think if we look at the PCR positive rate it's even better it's only about 10% and this is measuring symptomatic COVID cases rather than LFTs which mostly pick up asymptomatic ones. By the end of this week we might actually start seeing the symptomatic COVID case rate tip into contraction but it will be hidden by LFTs for another week.
Boris got bounced into this by scientists claiming 60% WoW case growth indefinitely but the actual real world data is showing a slowdown in case growth already and it won't be long until cases are falling again. There's no accountability with them and MPs need to hammer Boris and the scientists for this unnecessary 4 week extension. We're all paying the price for their zero COVID agenda and fake news data models.
I spent 4 years of my life in Aber. I can even spell Welsh words like “ambiwlans”
But 40% when the share of the population is 0.36% could be taken to be slightly excessive.
It certainly explains why so many of the restrictive practices and hence high fees of the legal profession won't be changed a hurry.
Case growth can only sustainably occur in the pockets of areas where people are unvaccinated - either the ever-diminishing amount of unvaccinated young, or the refuseniks whose own damned fault it is that they're unvaccinated.
Past that the virus smashes into a wall of vaccinations. The vaccinations are working as intended, but they don't work if you refuse it.
In any case most scientists and engineers are more likely to contribute in business and industry and research than in lawmaking and policymaking in which you would expect lawyers and historians and politics and PPE graduates to dominate in the Cabinet, Westminster and Whitehall.
Plus most STEM graduates can earn more in business and the City or as GPs and surgeons than they can in politics so you will not attract more of them unless you pay MPs and Cabinet Ministers more and that is unlikely to go down that well with the public at the moment
Still I salute you for enabling me to save time in future by ignoring your posts.
Proves Meatloaf's maxim. Two out of three ain't bad.
If they are too dull, or lazy or complacent to ask pertinent questions of the scientists, then that reflects even worse on them.
Both association football and rugby football, plus cricket.
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpjjhmg3nLYxoBodzb
These companies must be running these tours at a loss if they can't fill the trains up. This bit made me laugh:
Face masks are mandatory on all of our trains, except for certain exemptions (please refer to page 9). You are allowed to remove the face mask when eating or drinking, but the mask must be worn at all other times. When boarding the train, moving around the train or embarking, then the wearing of face masks is mandatory.If you have forgotten to bring face masks with you, we do have a limited number available.
Very easy to be eating and/or drinking the whole way there and the whole way back!
Just as I predicted. Why could nobody in SAGE think this through? 🤦♂️
If the virus can grow exponentially in the unvaccinated, but not in the vaccinated, then at 80% vaccinated it can't grow exponentially for long. That's just basic maths and logic, why can't their "models" think that through?
I'm not sure majoring on that message will have the effect they want...
We’ll see.