City Am reporting that internal LD polling has the party 4% behind in Chesham and Amersham – politic
Comments
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Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.1 -
I did wonder how many on furlough have left the country completely, and are living a good life somewhere much cheaper with little intention of coming back?DavidL said:
There is no question that the loss of several hundred thousand EU citizens, mainly young, often students, is creating labour shortages in some areas. I think, on balance, Rishi was right not to extend furlough beyond 1st July. There is going to be a lot to do and we do not want dead businesses hoarding labour that could be better deployed elsewhere.Gardenwalker said:
I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
There is certainly a labour shortage.
The furlough scheme is bloody expensive, one of the most generous schemes in the world, and has to end at some point.2 -
Our economic growth has been repressed since 2016, and the government’s own modelling suggests that repression will continue with the loss of unhindered trade with the EU.NerysHughes said:
There will be zero unemployment in the UK for the foreseeable future, the whole Brexit has caused unemployment argument is already dead in the water.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
All things being equal, that loss of economic growth means there are less jobs in the economy than there would have been.
That this hasn’t led to unemployment is probably testament to the remarkably responsive labour market we’ve had access to.
All of this is now hugely outshadowed by the unprecedented impact of Covid in which millions have both voluntarily and involuntarily exited the job market.0 -
Perhaps I didn't make my sarcasm clear enough about it being a curve ball. I agree with you.Nigelb said:
Sure.noneoftheabove said:
People don't comply with it because they want to keep their jobs.Nigelb said:
That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.noneoftheabove said:
Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?Scott_xP said:Big problem for No. 10 and 11
Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness
It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating
And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support
https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1
If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....
We knew this a year ago.
And of course people isolating in a crowded household spreads the disease more than if they are at least given the choice to isolate, on their own, i.e actually isolate, in a designated hotel as they have done in many other countries.
Point is we knew all this a year ago, and a few of us got quite heated about the lack of government action back then.
A properly thought out system of isolation could have saved tens of thousands of lives last winter.1 -
Wow. Brexit is affecting California too?rcs1000 said:
The job market in California is the hottest it has ever been: people want to go out and the restaurants are massively short staffed.CarlottaVance said:UK #CPI inflation up to 2.1 pc in May, highest for nearly 2 years. But stripping out VAT cuts (CPIY), the rate is 3.8 pc, - highest for over 12 years! With factory gate prices rising at 4.6 percent, and input price inflation up to 10.7 pc, even more inflation is in the pipeline.
https://twitter.com/asentance/status/1405057187458781186?s=20
There's going to be significant upward pressure on wages. It will be very interesting to see if this is a short term or a long term issue.3 -
But I thought we only wanted trade deals, none of that political FOM shite.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.0 -
One other thing about the Aus deal.
NZ is coming and will expect the same, very generous, access.0 -
I think it might, especially if we import a couple of hundred thousand Chinese traders from HK.rcs1000 said:
If I remember correctly, the CPTPP doesn't have much to say on the subject of services. It'd be great to join it, but I don't think it'd turbo charge services exports to the region.DavidL said:
Got an email from my old mucker Boris this morning. He seems pretty chuffed with the Australia deal and think it leads to membership of the TPP which he believes is going to be worth tens of thousands of jobs. It does seem clear that government policy is focused on joining the TPP as a larger, more dynamic if somewhat further away trading bloc than the EU SM. The opportunities for our services industries, who are rather less bothered about the distance, could be immense.RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
I will be genuinely astonished if anyone will ever be able to produce credible evidence that this change of partners has led to either extra or less growth than some theoretical hypothetical.0 -
You might be right, but lets see how wages do in the next few years. One bit of good news, I think, is that renting is apparently cheaper than buying, which is how it should be (in the short term, at least):DavidL said:
Given that UK plc has taken over the thick end of half a trillion of extra debt over the last 18 months why do you think that a bit of inflation is a bad thing?tlg86 said:
Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
The Bank has had a target of 2% for a long time now and has consistently undershot that target as a result of deflationary pressures in the economy. On traditional models, which may be as much use as a Warwick Covid projection, this has depressed growth and earnings. It has certainly done the latter. I think 5 or more years with inflation in the 3-4% range to offset this might well prove to be a good thing for this heavily indebted nation.
What we want, or at least what the majority would want, is to rebalance the take of labour and capital from the proceeds of growth. Far too much of the surplus has been absorbed by capital increasing social division, consolidating the benefits of the already rich and somewhat grinding down those who work for a living. We want stronger wage growth, a gentle decline in the real value of capital assets (including housing) without creating negative equity traps. In short we need moderate inflation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-574645340 -
The point being that if you do this consistently as an "investment strategy" you will eventually turn a reasonable profit..rcs1000 said:
Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.DavidL said:I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?
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Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.0 -
The other advantage is that you are now starting to see companies highlight that the discount rate on liabilities on their pension schemes for, crucially, the cash payment part is finally starting to increase, which should mean over time companies paying less cash to settle pension liabilities. That frees up more cash for investment (but also share buybacks / dividends)DavidL said:
Given that UK plc has taken over the thick end of half a trillion of extra debt over the last 18 months why do you think that a bit of inflation is a bad thing?tlg86 said:
Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
The Bank has had a target of 2% for a long time now and has consistently undershot that target as a result of deflationary pressures in the economy. On traditional models, which may be as much use as a Warwick Covid projection, this has depressed growth and earnings. It has certainly done the latter. I think 5 or more years with inflation in the 3-4% range to offset this might well prove to be a good thing for this heavily indebted nation.
What we want, or at least what the majority would want, is to rebalance the take of labour and capital from the proceeds of growth. Far too much of the surplus has been absorbed by capital increasing social division, consolidating the benefits of the already rich and somewhat grinding down those who work for a living. We want stronger wage growth, a gentle decline in the real value of capital assets (including housing) without creating negative equity traps. In short we need moderate inflation.0 -
Your last paragraph is spot on, in my opinion. It's also very close to Labour's current economic policy. If the Tories adopted your approach, they would truly be seeking to 'level up' and tilt the balance from capital to labour, at the same time as stealing Labour's clothes again. However, the Tory faithful in the middle and upper classes wouldn't be willing to tolerate a "gentle decline in the real value of capital assets", I suspect, which presents BJ/Sunak with a problem.DavidL said:
Given that UK plc has taken over the thick end of half a trillion of extra debt over the last 18 months why do you think that a bit of inflation is a bad thing?tlg86 said:
Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
The Bank has had a target of 2% for a long time now and has consistently undershot that target as a result of deflationary pressures in the economy. On traditional models, which may be as much use as a Warwick Covid projection, this has depressed growth and earnings. It has certainly done the latter. I think 5 or more years with inflation in the 3-4% range to offset this might well prove to be a good thing for this heavily indebted nation.
What we want, or at least what the majority would want, is to rebalance the take of labour and capital from the proceeds of growth. Far too much of the surplus has been absorbed by capital increasing social division, consolidating the benefits of the already rich and somewhat grinding down those who work for a living. We want stronger wage growth, a gentle decline in the real value of capital assets (including housing) without creating negative equity traps. In short we need moderate inflation.2 -
Yep. They are doing a marvellous job of suppressing their own votetheProle said:
I'm not sure that that's the point. I hate nightclubs, wouldn't go in one if you paid me. I'd currently vote against the Tories (who exactly who I'd vote for might be harder to answer) on the basis that people should be allowed to go to nightclubs if they want to. This government and its lockdowns are evil, immoral and oppressive, and the sooner they are booted out the better.eek said:
In the 40 years I've known Amersham I don't ever remember there being a nightclub. Chesham had one but it was considered naff even in 1988SandyRentool said:So is Outraged of Amersham going to vote LibDem because they can't visit a nightclub next week?
I can't see it.
And I voted for them last time, in a marginal seat. They may yet live to regret their current bout of power-hungry madness.0 -
It's hilarious reading on here how Australia is some agricultural superpower that's going to decimate Britain.
Quite barking.4 -
Binged watch that recently, am on 'Allo 'Allo now.Casino_Royale said:For those that are interested, you can get all the back episodes of Drop The Dead Donkey on Britbox.
My wife and I are avid viewers!
Love that show even more now.
If you're a BT Broadband customer they have an offer where you can get six months of Britbox free.
Ditto if you have the right EE tariff.1 -
Under 35s vote Labour and are woke, get them out and quick! Have them back when they are old enough to vote properly. What is not to like?Gardenwalker said:
But I thought we only wanted trade deals, none of that political FOM shite.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.0 -
Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html0 -
Has anyone seriously got the time to comment on the internet about how many people have time to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements........Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.
(this could go on).1 -
It's also worth noting that there a quite a lot of people (nobody knows how many, I suspect) who are currently on furlough but are also 'moonlighting' in other jobs. Such people are doing very well, financially, out of the pandemic.Sandpit said:
I did wonder how many on furlough have left the country completely, and are living a good life somewhere much cheaper with little intention of coming back?DavidL said:
There is no question that the loss of several hundred thousand EU citizens, mainly young, often students, is creating labour shortages in some areas. I think, on balance, Rishi was right not to extend furlough beyond 1st July. There is going to be a lot to do and we do not want dead businesses hoarding labour that could be better deployed elsewhere.Gardenwalker said:
I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
There is certainly a labour shortage.
The furlough scheme is bloody expensive, one of the most generous schemes in the world, and has to end at some point.2 -
It’s awesome, isn’t it, that we have a diversity of viewpoints being discussed on TV.Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.
There’s even people who think cheaper food and wine is a good thing.3 -
At what point during the declaration do they tell us what the true odds were?Casino_Royale said:
The point being that if you do this consistently as an "investment strategy" you will eventually turn a reasonable profit..rcs1000 said:
Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.DavidL said:I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?
That's my problem with this sort of bet.0 -
Didn’t know that last bit. ExcellentCasino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.1 -
Exactly so. If the government is serious about levelling up they will see slightly higher inflation as a good thing.Northern_Al said:
Your last paragraph is spot on, in my opinion. It's also very close to Labour's current economic policy. If the Tories adopted your approach, they would truly be seeking to 'level up' and tilt the balance from capital to labour, at the same time as stealing Labour's clothes again. However, the Tory faithful in the middle and upper classes wouldn't be willing to tolerate a "gentle decline in the real value of capital assets", I suspect, which presents BJ/Sunak with a problem.DavidL said:
Given that UK plc has taken over the thick end of half a trillion of extra debt over the last 18 months why do you think that a bit of inflation is a bad thing?tlg86 said:
Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
The Bank has had a target of 2% for a long time now and has consistently undershot that target as a result of deflationary pressures in the economy. On traditional models, which may be as much use as a Warwick Covid projection, this has depressed growth and earnings. It has certainly done the latter. I think 5 or more years with inflation in the 3-4% range to offset this might well prove to be a good thing for this heavily indebted nation.
What we want, or at least what the majority would want, is to rebalance the take of labour and capital from the proceeds of growth. Far too much of the surplus has been absorbed by capital increasing social division, consolidating the benefits of the already rich and somewhat grinding down those who work for a living. We want stronger wage growth, a gentle decline in the real value of capital assets (including housing) without creating negative equity traps. In short we need moderate inflation.
I do think that the stage is set fair for higher wage growth. Wages have been held back by the elasticity of supply of labour through the SM. That has stopped although I expect the change to be tempered when we see some of the consequences. The economy is about to grow strongly. If wages cannot grow significantly above inflation in that scenario I don't think that they ever will. There is going to be a healthy competition for labour. Good.5 -
Same in London, we put up 6 positions last week for junior and mid level analysts, already got two of them to the final interview stage. I don't think our experience is unique either, hiring around these parts has just gone to another level and it's not as though we were particularly impacted by this stuff. In the last two months we've hired around 20 people and we still need another 30-50 and if our business projections are correct by the end of this year maybe as many as 150. I've never experienced anything like it. We could just be winning market share from our rivals but it doesn't feel like that's what's happening as they're all reporting surges in business as well.rcs1000 said:
The job market in California is the hottest it has ever been: people want to go out and the restaurants are massively short staffed.CarlottaVance said:UK #CPI inflation up to 2.1 pc in May, highest for nearly 2 years. But stripping out VAT cuts (CPIY), the rate is 3.8 pc, - highest for over 12 years! With factory gate prices rising at 4.6 percent, and input price inflation up to 10.7 pc, even more inflation is in the pipeline.
https://twitter.com/asentance/status/1405057187458781186?s=20
There's going to be significant upward pressure on wages. It will be very interesting to see if this is a short term or a long term issue.
The predictions of 11% unemployment were never going to have any relation to reality, if anything we may be back down to under 4% unemployment by early next year assuming Boris doesn't flunk the decision on the 19th as he has for the 21st.1 -
If you can point to the overarching political body like the EU that effectively runs the relationship..Gardenwalker said:
But I thought we only wanted trade deals, none of that political FOM shite.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.2 -
Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.1 -
Andrew interviewing Rishi tonight at 8pm (from inside a toilet if the sound is anything to go by):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCKiVZ-jRpY1 -
Which actually is the good side of betting. If you bet small stakes then it really is good for the soul,confidence, having an opportunity , interest, action , taking an interest in the world of sport or politics etc . its the high end stakes that gives gambling a bad name . Best memories of punting for me actually goes back to when I was around 9 or 10 and helping Gran (well actually she allowed me to pick ) the selections for the football pools and then recording the scores on a saturday afternoon from Grandstand and taking them around to her to check together . In later years we discussed her numbers on the lottery . Gambling can be really good if in checkCharles said:
You get to tell everyone that you backed a “value loser” and feel smug about how smart you are.DavidL said:I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?
Your £10 is paying for that momentary self congratulatory buzz. It’s not really about the betting…0 -
All candidates get a certain amount of leeway, but not I think this much - given LD self-presentation as the truly Green party, including "support for Green transport" heavily pushing their Green image, including HS2 support prominent in their last General Election manifesto.Gallowgate said:
Yawn.MattW said:Observed on Lib Dem Voice:
***** 15th Jun '21 - 7:22pm
HS2 is a major disaster for Amersham, Little Missenden, Great Missenden, not to mention most of Buckinghamshire.
Please remind me, what is the Lib Dem position on this major issue?
**** 15th Jun '21 - 7:51pm
The Liberal Democrat national position is irrelevant to the by-election. Like any really good Liberal Democrat candidate, Sarah Green has her ears to the ground and her personal position is in opposition to HS2
This is very hypocritical. For decades Tory candidates ran on anti EU platforms despite the opposite official party policy.
https://www.transport-network.co.uk/Manifesto-Liberal-Democrats-focus-on-greening-transport/16305
(Ooops - except where we have a base political need to pander to local NIMBYs.)
It is neither here nor there for me now, since in my area the LDs have wiped themselves out completely even at Councillor level for the next extended period of time, having bet their existence on a highly polarised and rather abusive position on Brexit, and lost.
And yes, I have regularly given LDs my vote over the years.1 -
Mr. Eagles, and others, 'Allo 'Allo has multiple episodes on Yesterday (I think that's channel 25 on freeview but it keeps changing...). Might be on weeknights too.
It holds up very well.0 -
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there. Apart from any other consideration it's not as cheap to come back from Australia as from Spain.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.
But if one of my grandchildren was talking about trying it'd say go.1 -
No way will Boris go back on it now, he's locked in for the 19th. Even though it would be a hugely positive and popular u turn, the government will stick to their idiotic overly cautious wanker scientist led projections and simply ignore the real world data.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.2 -
That's not going to go anywhere, while cases and hospitalisations are actually rising.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
If they were falling, maybe.0 -
You’re a clever lad. I don’t need to do your thinking for you.Nigelb said:
So what would constitute a 'proper investigation' ?moonshine said:
Im fairly sure the only grand conspiracy or psyops campaign today is the one of ridicule around the subject of UFO’s. Which has meant stories like that one were not ever properly investigated and the pieces never put together. Ditto Fravor and the tic-tac. He said his commanding officer took the view of “well ain’t that darndest. File it and forget about it”. Despite the flight mission specifically being to investigate erratically moving objects on the carrier’s radar.Leon said:
Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese mindsmoonshine said:
The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.Leon said:
You were first! You switched me on to thismoonshine said:
Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!Floater said:
By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.
As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention
And I do not rule out other conclusions
But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.
But I don’t rule out anything else
One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water
And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!
https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21
An interesting question is where and why the conspiracy of ridicule arose from, because it was not prevalent until some time in the 1950s. It seems to have been an acceptable and widespread belief before then. And following on from that, why has the conspiracy of ridicule almost completely collapsed (in the US at least) in such a short period?
I start to lean towards the US government concluding there was exotic tech on earth around that time, and someone in the US government or deep state decided to bury it, for reasons unknown. Could be a Cold War aspect to it. Could simply be someone in power was fiercely god fearing and saw the possibility of non human tech as devil’s work.
Either way, a culture of ridicule was created around the topic. Probably no one left alive even remembers why and we’ve just been seeing cultural acquisition of a learned response over seven long decades. Which otherwise smart posters here fall into, when strong evidence of something sincerely interesting and mysterious is being met with some combination of ridicule, mocking, contorted logic, self doubt and even anger.
As you and I have posted before, the popular response to what is being said and shown in America is almost as fascinating as the current machinations in the US government and the “phenomenon” itself.0 -
A young gay working class Leaver. How DARE he go on TV and give us his vile plebeian opinion.Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.
What we need is another posh middle aged Remainery Guardian journalist with a Cambridge degree, to tell us all that we’re racist. Proper Remoaner people like this are the reason regular TV news is already watched by up to three dozen viewers every day6 -
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html0 -
In fairness I think it is an agricultural superpower but it is focused on feeding China's increasing desire for meat which is almost certainly more profitable, nearer and growing strongly. I suspect that to the extent that they have the capacity to further increase output it is more likely to go that way than here.Casino_Royale said:
It's hilarious reading on here how Australia is some agricultural superpower that's going to decimate Britain.
Quite barking.0 -
Great! I shall look forward to the nine pence discount on Central Otago Pinot.Gardenwalker said:One other thing about the Aus deal.
NZ is coming and will expect the same, very generous, access.0 -
I enjoyed it quite a bit, seeing it for the first time last year, but it really doesnt.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, and others, 'Allo 'Allo has multiple episodes on Yesterday (I think that's channel 25 on freeview but it keeps changing...). Might be on weeknights too.
It holds up very well.0 -
Australia was wiped clean, culturally, by the British: 200 years agoTimS said:
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html
A 50,000 year-old-civilisation - intricate, complex, fantastical, unique - was obliterated in a couple of generations1 -
What are you talking about? I've never said anything else.TOPPING said:
Finally you accept that the inflation target is 2%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
What I've said in the past is that eg increasing from 0.8% to 1.4% doesn't mean that inflation is too high, it means its gone from not high enough* to still below target.
2.1% is pretty much at the sweet spot at the perfect amount of inflation. Its only 0.1% off target. If it keeps rising past 3% then that would be bad and trigger a "please explain" letter on what steps will be required, if any, to get it back down.
* Indeed 0.8% is so low the Governor of the Bank of England is required by law to write a "please explain" letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.1 -
They edit those episode. Well used to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, and others, 'Allo 'Allo has multiple episodes on Yesterday (I think that's channel 25 on freeview but it keeps changing...). Might be on weeknights too.
It holds up very well.
It comes to them having 30 minute episodes in 30 minute slots, so to fit it into the time slot and have adverts they cut them.0 -
You don't have to watch it you know...Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.0 -
Not sure about that bit. The pension fund that I am a trustee for is currently in a fairly healthy surplus as a result in the boom in the value of assets exceeding the growth of liabilities which low inflation has kept down. We haven't paid money into the fund (it is a closed fund) for 2 years now. I don't expect there to be any need to do so for another 5 years at least.MrEd said:
The other advantage is that you are now starting to see companies highlight that the discount rate on liabilities on their pension schemes for, crucially, the cash payment part is finally starting to increase, which should mean over time companies paying less cash to settle pension liabilities. That frees up more cash for investment (but also share buybacks / dividends)DavidL said:
Given that UK plc has taken over the thick end of half a trillion of extra debt over the last 18 months why do you think that a bit of inflation is a bad thing?tlg86 said:
Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
The Bank has had a target of 2% for a long time now and has consistently undershot that target as a result of deflationary pressures in the economy. On traditional models, which may be as much use as a Warwick Covid projection, this has depressed growth and earnings. It has certainly done the latter. I think 5 or more years with inflation in the 3-4% range to offset this might well prove to be a good thing for this heavily indebted nation.
What we want, or at least what the majority would want, is to rebalance the take of labour and capital from the proceeds of growth. Far too much of the surplus has been absorbed by capital increasing social division, consolidating the benefits of the already rich and somewhat grinding down those who work for a living. We want stronger wage growth, a gentle decline in the real value of capital assets (including housing) without creating negative equity traps. In short we need moderate inflation.0 -
When I looked this morning the GB News story was the third biggest on the BBC News website, complete with promotional spiel and where you can watch the channel.
Also, most of the advertisers (except Ikea) have just suspended the advertising, pending a review of the content. I think that, when the content is reviewed and found to be harmless, they will change their position. In doing so they may reflect on things like the fact that 52% of the country voted for Brexit, and there is hardly overwhelming support for woke social causes, it is not particularly deep in society. Furthermore, GB News seems to have had a good start given all the publicity, and its audience are likely to be of the kind that TV advertising is potentially effective on (eg older people that still watch TV), they do however need to at least sort out the sound and improve the picture, I agree with that.
It is Stop Funding Hate who look like fools in all of this. Their luck has run out. They started the campaign too soon, they didn't have any evidence that GB News was peddling hatred, they are just bullies who act on their prejudice. It is they who are the haters. The sooner they are banished to some hopeless corner of the internet the better.
2 -
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.0 -
Interesting that several of us on here spotted a flattening of curve as soon as Saturday. That was before the Monday announcement. Now, of course the fact that the infection inflation rate has fallen sharply over the last five days could be noise. It could rise again.MaxPB said:
No way will Boris go back on it now, he's locked in for the 19th. Even though it would be a hugely positive and popular u turn, the government will stick to their idiotic overly cautious wanker scientist led projections and simply ignore the real world data.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
Yet there is nevertheless a nontrivial chance that the government has been spooked into a bad decision by old data. If the case rate turns negative by the weekend, what will happen?
Presumably the press will finally notice?0 -
Absolutely completely agreed.DavidL said:
Given that UK plc has taken over the thick end of half a trillion of extra debt over the last 18 months why do you think that a bit of inflation is a bad thing?tlg86 said:
Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
The Bank has had a target of 2% for a long time now and has consistently undershot that target as a result of deflationary pressures in the economy. On traditional models, which may be as much use as a Warwick Covid projection, this has depressed growth and earnings. It has certainly done the latter. I think 5 or more years with inflation in the 3-4% range to offset this might well prove to be a good thing for this heavily indebted nation.
What we want, or at least what the majority would want, is to rebalance the take of labour and capital from the proceeds of growth. Far too much of the surplus has been absorbed by capital increasing social division, consolidating the benefits of the already rich and somewhat grinding down those who work for a living. We want stronger wage growth, a gentle decline in the real value of capital assets (including housing) without creating negative equity traps. In short we need moderate inflation.
Stagflation is a terrible curse but moderate inflation is a good thing and its been a problem that we've not had it in the past. There is always a problem in politics over not just fighting the last war but overreacting to the last war and the elimination of all inflation and the absence of moderate inflation has been a problem caused by those who remember the scars of very high inflation.
The worry is that as increasingly fewer people remember very high inflation that it is a lesson we'll need to relearn again in the future rather than ending up for long at the sweet spot of moderate inflation.2 -
Don't hold your breath. The innumeracy of the media - even after a year and a quarter of this - is astonishing.Anabobazina said:
Interesting that several of us on here spotted a flattening of curve as soon as Saturday. That was before the Monday announcement. Now, of course the fact that the infection inflation rate has fallen sharply over the last five days could be noise. It could rise again.MaxPB said:
No way will Boris go back on it now, he's locked in for the 19th. Even though it would be a hugely positive and popular u turn, the government will stick to their idiotic overly cautious wanker scientist led projections and simply ignore the real world data.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
Yet there is nevertheless a nontrivial chance that the government has been spooked into a bad decision by old data. If the case rate turns negative by the weekend, what will happen?
Presumably the press will finally notice?4 -
Not *that* much of a superpower.DavidL said:
In fairness I think it is an agricultural superpower but it is focused on feeding China's increasing desire for meat which is almost certainly more profitable, nearer and growing strongly. I suspect that to the extent that they have the capacity to further increase output it is more likely to go that way than here.Casino_Royale said:
It's hilarious reading on here how Australia is some agricultural superpower that's going to decimate Britain.
Quite barking.
Total Oz beef production is somewhat more than double the UK's.
The alleged disparity is heavily overblown.1 -
I never have. There's more chance I'd watch East Enders which I've also never watched. I hope it'll go bust. I mean what is the population of Hartlepool?Slackbladder said:
You don't have to watch it you know...Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.0 -
Indeed. But here’s the tricky thing. It seems a good chunk of records from the time were destroyed. Why? And we now know this is going on to the present day, with FOI requests on Lue Elizondo’s emails at the Pentagon coming back blank. Not classified, but destroyed. Not a few of his most sensitive emails. All of them.Leon said:
There WAS, I think, a concerted attempt to hush up UFO sightings and make them socially unacceptable. Sometime in the 1950s, at the height of the Cold War, the Pentagon became concerned that many UFO sightings were actually observations of genuine secret planes/weapons. They then worried that info on these weapons would leak out in the excitementmoonshine said:
Im fairly sure the only grand conspiracy or psyops campaign today is the one of ridicule around the subject of UFO’s. Which has meant stories like that one were not ever properly investigated and the pieces never put together. Ditto Fravor and the tic-tac. He said his commanding officer took the view of “well ain’t that darndest. File it and forget about it”. Despite the flight mission specifically being to investigate erratically moving objects on the carrier’s radar.Leon said:
Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese mindsmoonshine said:
The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.Leon said:
You were first! You switched me on to thismoonshine said:
Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!Floater said:
By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.
As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention
And I do not rule out other conclusions
But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.
But I don’t rule out anything else
One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water
And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!
https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21
An interesting question is where and why the conspiracy of ridicule arose from, because it was not prevalent until some time in the 1950s. It seems to have been an acceptable and widespread belief before then. And following on from that, why has the conspiracy of ridicule almost completely collapsed (in the US at least) in such a short period?
I start to lean towards the US government concluding there was exotic tech on earth around that time, and someone in the US government or deep state decided to bury it, for reasons unknown. Could be a Cold War aspect to it. Could simply be someone in power was fiercely god fearing and saw the possibility of non human tech as devil’s work.
Either way, a culture of ridicule was created around the topic. Probably no one left alive even remembers why and we’ve just been seeing cultural acquisition of a learned response over seven long decades. Which otherwise smart posters here fall into, when strong evidence of something sincerely interesting and mysterious is being met with some combination of ridicule, mocking, contorted logic, self doubt and even anger.
As you and I have posted before, the popular response to what is being said and shown in America is almost as fascinating as the current machinations in the US government and the “phenomenon” itself.
So they began to stigmatise UFOs. Got posh experts in to talk loftily about swamp gas. From then on anyone who saw a UFO was a nutter and probably inbred. A proto-Trumpite0 -
Great, lets give it to them. 👍Gardenwalker said:One other thing about the Aus deal.
NZ is coming and will expect the same, very generous, access.
Ending the scars of 1973. Growing up downunder in the 90s it was still relatively fresh the betrayal of 1973 and the UK ending Commonwealth Preference and putting tariffs on Commonwealth goods instead.
As we move forwards with tariff-free trade with Europe, having tariff-free trade with our allies and cousins in the Commonwealth is both morally and economically the right thing to do.4 -
Reform at 33s is good value for third. Lib Dem at 16-1 for third should be more like 1000-10
-
Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.0 -
Historically, of course, not all went voluntarily..........CarlottaVance said:
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.0 -
2010-2019 the UK grew more per capita than the Eurozone did.Gardenwalker said:
Our economic growth has been repressed since 2016, and the government’s own modelling suggests that repression will continue with the loss of unhindered trade with the EU.NerysHughes said:
There will be zero unemployment in the UK for the foreseeable future, the whole Brexit has caused unemployment argument is already dead in the water.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
All things being equal, that loss of economic growth means there are less jobs in the economy than there would have been.
That this hasn’t led to unemployment is probably testament to the remarkably responsive labour market we’ve had access to.
All of this is now hugely outshadowed by the unprecedented impact of Covid in which millions have both voluntarily and involuntarily exited the job market.
Considering we were supposedly repressed by Brexit and repressed by Tory austerity, how do you square reality with those sweeping claims?1 -
Indeed. Be interesting to see what happens. Some projections have positive tests actually falling by next week. Could all change. We’ll see.Malmesbury said:
That's not going to go anywhere, while cases and hospitalisations are actually rising.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
If they were falling, maybe.0 -
The LDs could do with a bit of colour.... Lembit Opik certainly gave the party of bit sparkle.... shame he's been expelled.....no such as bad publicity but he may have gone too far
https://www.libdemvoice.org/lembit-opik-expelled-from-lib-dems-for-advising-tories-how-to-beat-us-67841.html0 -
Boris did say they would review the situation after two weeks. Perhaps we will be free on the Fourth of JulyAnabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.1 -
Whenever I see Great Britain described as a 'small island' I wince.Leon said:
Australia was wiped clean, culturally, by the British: 200 years agoTimS said:
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html
A 50,000 year-old-civilisation - intricate, complex, fantastical, unique - was obliterated in a couple of generations
Of the millions and millions of islands that there are in the world - and the thousands of inhabited islands - Great Britain is the 8th biggest. It is (I think) the fifth most populous. The second most important economically.
That is not a 'small island'. Alderney is a small island. Great Britain is not.
Now the UK is, at best, a medium sized country in land area (though large in terms of population or economy). And we certainly don't have the diversity of geography that Australia does (though arguably the UK contains a lot more diversity per unit area). The point the writer makes is broadly valid. But the 'small island' claim is witless.7 -
Loads of people here, particularly in trades, are doing that. Having it away like bandits. It may explain some of those in favour of further lockdowns.Northern_Al said:
It's also worth noting that there a quite a lot of people (nobody knows how many, I suspect) who are currently on furlough but are also 'moonlighting' in other jobs. Such people are doing very well, financially, out of the pandemic.Sandpit said:
I did wonder how many on furlough have left the country completely, and are living a good life somewhere much cheaper with little intention of coming back?DavidL said:
There is no question that the loss of several hundred thousand EU citizens, mainly young, often students, is creating labour shortages in some areas. I think, on balance, Rishi was right not to extend furlough beyond 1st July. There is going to be a lot to do and we do not want dead businesses hoarding labour that could be better deployed elsewhere.Gardenwalker said:
I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
There is certainly a labour shortage.
The furlough scheme is bloody expensive, one of the most generous schemes in the world, and has to end at some point.1 -
I'd love to think so. But I think the best we can hope for is one or two token measures.Leon said:
Boris did say they would review the situation after two weeks. Perhaps we will be free on the Fourth of JulyAnabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.
There are too many influential people who fundamentally believe in the virtues of lockdown for its own sake. I'm 60% sure they are going to win indefinitely.0 -
Yes well said. This irks me too.Cookie said:
Whenever I see Great Britain described as a 'small island' I wince.Leon said:
Australia was wiped clean, culturally, by the British: 200 years agoTimS said:
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html
A 50,000 year-old-civilisation - intricate, complex, fantastical, unique - was obliterated in a couple of generations
Of the millions and millions of islands that there are in the world - and the thousands of inhabited islands - Great Britain is the 8th biggest. It is (I think) the fifth most populous. The second most important economically.
That is not a 'small island'. Alderney is a small island. Great Britain is not.
Now the UK is, at best, a medium sized country in land area (though large in terms of population or economy). And we certainly don't have the diversity of geography that Australia does (though arguably the UK contains a lot more diversity per unit area). The point the writer makes is broadly valid. But the 'small island' claim is witless.0 -
Yes. The easy answer, politically, is that when cases start falling, you don't immediately reduce restrictions. That is one thing that has been learnt around the world for COVID.Anabobazina said:
Indeed. Be interesting to see what happens. Some projections have positive tests actually falling by next week. Could all change. We’ll see.Malmesbury said:
That's not going to go anywhere, while cases and hospitalisations are actually rising.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
If they were falling, maybe.0 -
Interesting choice of dates you make there.Philip_Thompson said:
2010-2019 the UK grew more per capita than the Eurozone did.Gardenwalker said:
Our economic growth has been repressed since 2016, and the government’s own modelling suggests that repression will continue with the loss of unhindered trade with the EU.NerysHughes said:
There will be zero unemployment in the UK for the foreseeable future, the whole Brexit has caused unemployment argument is already dead in the water.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
All things being equal, that loss of economic growth means there are less jobs in the economy than there would have been.
That this hasn’t led to unemployment is probably testament to the remarkably responsive labour market we’ve had access to.
All of this is now hugely outshadowed by the unprecedented impact of Covid in which millions have both voluntarily and involuntarily exited the job market.
Considering we were supposedly repressed by Brexit and repressed by Tory austerity, how do you square reality with those sweeping claims?
Positively HYUFDian.0 -
TBH I'm surprised they believed him!swing_voter said:The LDs could do with a bit of colour.... Lembit Opik certainly gave the party of bit sparkle.... shame he's been expelled.....no such as bad publicity but he may have gone too far
https://www.libdemvoice.org/lembit-opik-expelled-from-lib-dems-for-advising-tories-how-to-beat-us-67841.html0 -
Typical woke identity politics from you. Who cares if Darren Grimes is gay?Leon said:
A young gay working class Leaver. How DARE he go on TV and give us his vile plebeian opinion.Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.
What we need is another posh middle aged Remainery Guardian journalist with a Cambridge degree, to tell us all that we’re racist. Proper Remoaner people like this are the reason regular TV news is already watched by up to three dozen viewers every day1 -
You have said in the past (and no I can't be arsed to find it) that the 2% target was actually a 3% target.Philip_Thompson said:
What are you talking about? I've never said anything else.TOPPING said:
Finally you accept that the inflation target is 2%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.JohnLilburne said:
What I've said in the past is that eg increasing from 0.8% to 1.4% doesn't mean that inflation is too high, it means its gone from not high enough* to still below target.
2.1% is pretty much at the sweet spot at the perfect amount of inflation. Its only 0.1% off target. If it keeps rising past 3% then that would be bad and trigger a "please explain" letter on what steps will be required, if any, to get it back down.
* Indeed 0.8% is so low the Governor of the Bank of England is required by law to write a "please explain" letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.0 -
A lot of people do a few years then return. I agree though that the appeal of Australia is far wider than EU countries due mainly to language issues.CarlottaVance said:
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.0 -
But it *feels* incredibly small - if you’re Australian. It’s one reason Australians like coming to Britain - everywhere in the country is about 2 hours away - at most. As compared to a 17 hour drive across unchanging semi-desertCookie said:
Whenever I see Great Britain described as a 'small island' I wince.Leon said:
Australia was wiped clean, culturally, by the British: 200 years agoTimS said:
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html
A 50,000 year-old-civilisation - intricate, complex, fantastical, unique - was obliterated in a couple of generations
Of the millions and millions of islands that there are in the world - and the thousands of inhabited islands - Great Britain is the 8th biggest. It is (I think) the fifth most populous. The second most important economically.
That is not a 'small island'. Alderney is a small island. Great Britain is not.
Now the UK is, at best, a medium sized country in land area (though large in terms of population or economy). And we certainly don't have the diversity of geography that Australia does (though arguably the UK contains a lot more diversity per unit area). The point the writer makes is broadly valid. But the 'small island' claim is witless.
I remember having lunch in at outback farm in the Northern Territory. It was quite jolly because the ‘neighbours’ had popped over. The neighbours lived 80km away1 -
That's harsh. Are you not very keen on your grandchildren?OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there. Apart from any other consideration it's not as cheap to come back from Australia as from Spain.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.
But if one of my grandchildren was talking about trying it'd say go.0 -
The r from the % increase in cases is always looking back a bit too...Anabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.
Today's case numbers are importent as they'll have Monday by specimen I believe0 -
June 16 (Reuters) - Britain is in talks with six companies for building gigafactories to produce electric vehicle batteries, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people briefed on the discussions.
Ford Motor Co (F.N), Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T), LG Corp (003550.KS), Samsung (005930.KS) and start-ups Britishvolt and InoBat Auto are in talks with the British government or local authorities about locations for potential factories and financial support, according to the report.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-talks-with-6-firms-about-building-gigafactories-ev-batteries-ft-2021-06-16/2 -
Not so well as some of my colleagues who have their spouses on the payroll of their private practices, and have had them furloughed for a year! I am sure that other small companies have done this too.Northern_Al said:
It's also worth noting that there a quite a lot of people (nobody knows how many, I suspect) who are currently on furlough but are also 'moonlighting' in other jobs. Such people are doing very well, financially, out of the pandemic.Sandpit said:
I did wonder how many on furlough have left the country completely, and are living a good life somewhere much cheaper with little intention of coming back?DavidL said:
There is no question that the loss of several hundred thousand EU citizens, mainly young, often students, is creating labour shortages in some areas. I think, on balance, Rishi was right not to extend furlough beyond 1st July. There is going to be a lot to do and we do not want dead businesses hoarding labour that could be better deployed elsewhere.Gardenwalker said:
I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.DavidL said:
There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.Floater said:
The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....RochdalePioneers said:
Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.Scott_xP said:Why Brexit is far from over...
This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
Progress at last
There is certainly a labour shortage.
The furlough scheme is bloody expensive, one of the most generous schemes in the world, and has to end at some point.
(Mrs Foxy is not furloughed)1 -
Mr. Eagles, the weirdest editing of that nature I ever saw was when Pick replayed Farscape.
They edited to make the time, which is fair enough, but then they started cutting out the swearing. Only it was sci-fi pretend swearing (frell, I think).1 -
It's all part of the WWII folklore, isn't it! 'Just one small island nation standing alone......'Cookie said:
Whenever I see Great Britain described as a 'small island' I wince.Leon said:
Australia was wiped clean, culturally, by the British: 200 years agoTimS said:
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html
A 50,000 year-old-civilisation - intricate, complex, fantastical, unique - was obliterated in a couple of generations
Of the millions and millions of islands that there are in the world - and the thousands of inhabited islands - Great Britain is the 8th biggest. It is (I think) the fifth most populous. The second most important economically.
That is not a 'small island'. Alderney is a small island. Great Britain is not.
Now the UK is, at best, a medium sized country in land area (though large in terms of population or economy). And we certainly don't have the diversity of geography that Australia does (though arguably the UK contains a lot more diversity per unit area). The point the writer makes is broadly valid. But the 'small island' claim is witless.
Now if it had been said about Japan.......1 -
Ah, the "Australia" nonsense again.OldKingCole said:
Historically, of course, not all went voluntarily..........CarlottaVance said:
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.
The claim that there is a huge continent, inhabited by mammals that lay eggs*, created a liberal democracy out of fly tipping convicts and has *black swans*???
Frankly, UFOs are pedestrian next to that.
*The "Platypus" fakery is especially ridiculous. Sewing a duck beak on an otter, I ask you.....1 -
Did anyone else watch ‘Time’ on the BBC starring Sean Bean & Stephen Graham? I thought it was brilliant2
-
Of course it's not negative publicity for the Govt.. so you will ignore it.Roger said:
Has anyone seriously got the time to listen to listen to Darren Grimes pontificating on Australian trade agreements or anything else for that matter except perhaps Philip Thomson?Gardenwalker said:I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.
LOL.
Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.0 -
It would be good optics and good politics.Leon said:
Boris did say they would review the situation after two weeks. Perhaps we will be free on the Fourth of JulyAnabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.
Look serious with the change and the slow down in the easing, but then 'oh wait, it's ok, we can go earlier as it's better than we feared'.
Boris looks like Father Christmas again, and a grateful nation loves him/1 -
It’s also two-way traffic. There’s as many young Aussies who want to come and jeer the Pommies as they lose the Ashes spend a couple of years working and travelling in the UK, as there are Brits wanting to visit Down Under.darkage said:
A lot of people do a few years then return. I agree though that the appeal of Australia is far wider than EU countries due mainly to language issues.CarlottaVance said:
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.0 -
The press will notice whatever bullshit the government feeds them. My faith in the political and media classes has been shattered for good. The only way out is for Tory MPs to tell Boris to get fucked.Anabobazina said:
Interesting that several of us on here spotted a flattening of curve as soon as Saturday. That was before the Monday announcement. Now, of course the fact that the infection inflation rate has fallen sharply over the last five days could be noise. It could rise again.MaxPB said:
No way will Boris go back on it now, he's locked in for the 19th. Even though it would be a hugely positive and popular u turn, the government will stick to their idiotic overly cautious wanker scientist led projections and simply ignore the real world data.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
Yet there is nevertheless a nontrivial chance that the government has been spooked into a bad decision by old data. If the case rate turns negative by the weekend, what will happen?
Presumably the press will finally notice?2 -
Admissions derived R might be a better measure...Pulpstar said:
The r from the % increase in cases is always looking back a bit too...Anabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.
Today's case numbers are importent as they'll have Monday by specimen I believe
0 -
Their beef export quota for Britain is indeed huge. Also, it's difficult to avoid giving the same concessions to the US, who definitely are an agricjulture superpower.Casino_Royale said:
It's hilarious reading on here how Australia is some agricultural superpower that's going to decimate Britain.
Quite barking.
I'm not saying that people can't make a case for other bits of the deal to make the undermining of British meat farming worthwhile - that's a matter of judgment and preference. But it's silly to pretend there isn't a real issue.0 -
London is a huge draw for young Aussies. A great world city, speaking English, with all the treasures of Europe surrounding you. Much more alluring than NYC and LA, and now much easier to accessSandpit said:.
It’s also two-way traffic. There’s as many young Aussies who want to come and jeer the Pommies as they lose the Ashes spend a couple of years working and travelling in the UK, as their are Brits wanting to visit Down Under.darkage said:
A lot of people do a few years then return. I agree though that the appeal of Australia is far wider than EU countries due mainly to language issues.CarlottaVance said:
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.
Britain’s bars and restaurants are about to recruit a lot of Aussie workers1 -
Yes, if the cases are coming down be then he surely has to end restrictions. He will probably get away with having extended them too.Leon said:
Boris did say they would review the situation after two weeks. Perhaps we will be free on the Fourth of JulyAnabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.
I didn’t realise we were supposed to be going back to ‘normal life’ on the 21st - People will be imposing their own set of restrictions for a while I reckon, when they government say we are free again2 -
The rates are expressed seven day week on week anyway so differences in the daily numbers are ironed out. The TUE-WED will certainly show a rise. But this is irrelevant - what we are looking for is the week on week rate to fall again (it’s currently at 39% - was 64% last week…)Pulpstar said:
The r from the % increase in cases is always looking back a bit too...Anabobazina said:Lilico again
R down to 1.36 from 1.57 last week. That's an enormous change - way too much to be explained by vaccination alone. No way on Earth Step 4 would have been postponed if the R last week had been 1.36 (or even 1.4). Policymakers have been spooked into an error by 1 weeks' data.
Today's case numbers are importent as they'll have Monday by specimen I believe0 -
Bit harsh from GB News I think.
4 -
It’s amusing how the word Gigafactory has entered popular parlance, a portmanteau dreamed up by Musk when he was in maximum hype phase for equity raising purposes.CarlottaVance said:June 16 (Reuters) - Britain is in talks with six companies for building gigafactories to produce electric vehicle batteries, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people briefed on the discussions.
Ford Motor Co (F.N), Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T), LG Corp (003550.KS), Samsung (005930.KS) and start-ups Britishvolt and InoBat Auto are in talks with the British government or local authorities about locations for potential factories and financial support, according to the report.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-talks-with-6-firms-about-building-gigafactories-ev-batteries-ft-2021-06-16/2 -
Its all a matter of perspective.Cookie said:
Whenever I see Great Britain described as a 'small island' I wince.Leon said:
Australia was wiped clean, culturally, by the British: 200 years agoTimS said:
Excellent, I'd not heard the "place was wiped clean in the last ice age" line before but it's a good one. On the flip side you could make a similar argument about literature, music and architectural history.CarlottaVance said:Oz take on trade deal:
“The biodiversity values in Australia are incomparable to the UK. One is a large continent of Gondwanan-origin whose variety of life has evolved in isolation for tens of millions of years and is like nothing else on the planet,” he says.
“The other is a small damp island whose entirety of lifeforms emigrated back from Europe after the place was wiped clean in the last ice age a mere 10 thousand years ago.”
As Mr Beshara put it in a recent speech to the Australian Farm Institute: “the UK has 32 native species of trees and shrubs full stop. Australia has 850 species of eucalypts alone”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/like-comparing-apples-with-dried-oranges-will-australia-ruin-uk-farms-20210616-p581lt.html
A 50,000 year-old-civilisation - intricate, complex, fantastical, unique - was obliterated in a couple of generations
Of the millions and millions of islands that there are in the world - and the thousands of inhabited islands - Great Britain is the 8th biggest. It is (I think) the fifth most populous. The second most important economically.
That is not a 'small island'. Alderney is a small island. Great Britain is not.
Now the UK is, at best, a medium sized country in land area (though large in terms of population or economy). And we certainly don't have the diversity of geography that Australia does (though arguably the UK contains a lot more diversity per unit area). The point the writer makes is broadly valid. But the 'small island' claim is witless.
Relative to the island of Orkney then Great Britain is massive, relative to the island of Australia the disparity is immense.
Britain like Rishi, while Australia is like the trooper in the photo the other day . . . only on an almost infinitely grander scale of difference.0 -
"We had intended you to beNorthern_Al said:
That's harsh. Are you not very keen on your grandchildren?OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there. Apart from any other consideration it's not as cheap to come back from Australia as from Spain.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.
But if one of my grandchildren was talking about trying it'd say go.
The next Prime Minister but three:
The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
The Middle Class was quite prepared.
But as it is! . . . My language fails!
Go out and govern New South Wales!"1 -
Nevertheless, had the rate been showing a fall on Monday, we’d be unlocking on 21 June…Malmesbury said:
Yes. The easy answer, politically, is that when cases start falling, you don't immediately reduce restrictions. That is one thing that has been learnt around the world for COVID.Anabobazina said:
Indeed. Be interesting to see what happens. Some projections have positive tests actually falling by next week. Could all change. We’ll see.Malmesbury said:
That's not going to go anywhere, while cases and hospitalisations are actually rising.Anabobazina said:Andrew Lilico on Twitter picking up on the “noise”
Cases growth now down to 39%. Seriously, MPs. If this continues to fall in this way to Friday you need to be all over Boris this weekend to get him to u-turn & enact Step 4 next Monday.
If they were falling, maybe.0 -
My Grandparents came to England to "see the old country" in 1932, just planning a couple of years, but then events. They never got back to the antipodes apart from a holiday in the Fifties and another in the Seventies.CarlottaVance said:
Like my brother - "for 18 months" - over a quarter of a century ago. There's a reason the British diaspora is as large in Australia alone as the whole of the EU.....OldKingCole said:
Free movement to Aus could see quite a few young people give it a go, and even if planning only to stay 'for a while' ending up staying there.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Conway of Sky News pointed out last night that Australia has made significant concessions on migration.Gardenwalker said:
I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:
NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear
https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20
In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
There will effectively be free movement for under 35s, up to a total of three years, with unrestricted working and residency rights.1 -
Yep I have checked, Wednesday reported is always the most importent day of the week as Monday by specimen arrives in the figures so anyone who was feeling ropey over the weekend and tests positive shows up0
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Shock news: Lib Dem documents indicate "a two-horse race"!2
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James Ward
@JamesWard73
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11h
But, whatever your view on that, it’s certainly an argument for why it might be better to “complete” our epidemic with Delta over this summer/early autumn, rather than holding out for a more perfect exit (with fewer deaths and hospitalisations) in the winter. 14/n
Fascinating thread.
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