City Am reporting that internal LD polling has the party 4% behind in Chesham and Amersham – politic

Lots of wishful thinking from LDs. It's not going to happen.

I don't see it but one can hope that the Lib Dems will win.

solarflare said:

Classic ITV random mid-football adbreak

Defund ITV....no 4k, crap commentary / analysts....

'Currently the LDs are on 13.5/1 with Betfair to win – a bet that looks very attractive'

Talk it in a little more and you'll be able to cash out for an even money return without having to hold on to your losing ticket to the end - hurrah!

SandyRentool said:

So is Outraged of Amersham going to vote LibDem because they can't visit a nightclub next week?

I can't see it.

No but they might not come out to vote Tory. Very low turnout I reckon.

SandyRentool said:

So is Outraged of Amersham going to vote LibDem because they can't visit a nightclub next week?

I can't see it.

No but they may do in support of the LD campaign against housebuilding and HS2.

Andy_JS said:

SandyRentool said:

So is Outraged of Amersham going to vote LibDem because they can't visit a nightclub next week?

I can't see it.

No but they may do in support of the LD campaign against housebuilding and HS2.

Their candidate is against LD stated policy..

rottenborough said:

First. Like Liberals in C&A hopefully.

It would be nice to see the Government take a good kicking for a change but I don't think it's going to happen. The yellows are going to need to completely fillet both the Labour and Green votes, and win over substantial numbers of Tory switchers. Insofar as I can see they've nothing to offer except Nimbyism about HS2 (which the Greens will do with more enthusiasm,) set against which the Tories have a solid core vote that's very far from tired of the Government and ready to protest and to splinter. Again, it's 2021 not 1993.

Besides, from a purely personal POV I find it hard to summon much interest in or sympathy for the Lib Dems. They stood for unpicking the result of the Brexit vote, and now they don't really stand for much at all. Insofar as one can make out, the members just want them to be a marginally less left-wing version of the Labour Party, aimed at Waitrose shoppers. And I think that, after the 2019 phenomenon of voting to put Boris Johnson back into bat because he wasn't Jeremy Corbyn, it would be nice to have some positive reasons to vote for a party at last. "Vote for us - we're not Tories" ought to help them a bit, but simply being the least offensive/most beige option on the ballot paper hardly inspires.

solarflare said:

Classic ITV random mid-football adbreak

I wonder what lovingly crafted Tyldesley bon mot we missed as a result?

Joe Biden left before the press conference with Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel and their joint statement wasn't released for hours afterwards. It doesn't say anything about the Northern Ireland protocol.

Now that IKEA have pulled their ads from GBNews do supposed wokers like me have to start frequenting that life extracting establishment? Or can we get a pass from the fact that IKEA is owned by an actual Nazi who finds GBNews too extreme?

FF43 said:

Now that IKEA have pulled their ads from GBNews do supposed wokers like me have to start frequenting that life extracting establishment? Or can we get a pass from the fact that IKEA is owned by an actual Nazi who finds GBNews too extreme?

Isn't he dead?

RobD said:

FF43 said:

Now that IKEA have pulled their ads from GBNews do supposed wokers like me have to start frequenting that life extracting establishment? Or can we get a pass from the fact that IKEA is owned by an actual Nazi who finds GBNews too extreme?

Isn't he dead?

No idea. Funnily enough, some of the brands as well as GB News itself are probably quite happy with the boycotts and anti-boycotts. Marketing moves in mysterious ways.

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

Now that IKEA have pulled their ads from GBNews do supposed wokers like me have to start frequenting that life extracting establishment? Or can we get a pass from the fact that IKEA is owned by an actual Nazi who finds GBNews too extreme?

Isn't he dead?

No idea. Funnily enough, some of the brands as well as GB News itself are probably quite happy with the boycotts and anti-boycotts. Marketing moves in mysterious ways.

Well he is. So you might want to withdraw your comment unless you are arguing the current owner is an actual Nazi.

moonshine said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Floater said:

Paging Leon

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/ufo-investigations-us-considering-extraterrestrial-hypothesis

Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!

By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.

You were first! You switched me on to this

As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention

And I do not rule out other conclusions

The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.

But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.

Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese minds

But I don’t rule out anything else

One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water

And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!

https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21

The picture quality of GB news is shit and looks low budget

But with the campaign against it on Twitter, part of me hopes it pulls through

I’d forgotten how marvelous it is, to be in a house in the English countryside, on a fine summer’s evening, as the long light departs

In 2019 the Tories got 55% in Chesham and Amersham, the LDs got 26%, Labour got 13% and the Greens got 5%. There was no Brexit Party candidate.

If the LDs are on 41% now that suggests they have squeezed most of the 18% who voted Labour and Green in 2019 to be up 15% on last time.

If the Tories are down to 55% from 45% that also suggests ReformUK could be on 5-10%

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

So is Outraged of Amersham going to vote LibDem because they can't visit a nightclub next week?

I can't see it.

No but they might vote Reform UK on that while the LDs get the Nimby vote

I stand to be corrected by events but RefUK looks dead in the water to me.

If the polling numbers CityAm are reporting are correct it seems Boris' announcement on Monday may have revived Farage and Tice's Party faster than Lazarus if the Tory voteshare is down 10%

squareroot2 said:

Lib Dem. Internal polling... has it ever been anything like accurate,?.. or is it hope and expectation over reality.

It was accurate in Richmond Park

Razedabode said:

The picture quality of GB news is shit and looks low budget

But with the campaign against it on Twitter, part of me hopes it pulls through

GBNews is there, only to make angry people angrier. On the left as well as the right it would appear

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

Lib Dem. Internal polling... has it ever been anything like accurate,?.. or is it hope and expectation over reality.

It was accurate in Richmond Park

Once.. in how many elections.. ? I have o feeling as I am not in the constituency but I would trust this polling as much as I would a Llb Dem bar chart.

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

Lib Dem. Internal polling... has it ever been anything like accurate,?.. or is it hope and expectation over reality.

It was accurate in Richmond Park

Once.. in how many elections.. ? I have o feeling as I am not in the constituency but I would trust this polling as much as I would a Llb Dem bar chart.

On which point...
Are there any local PB ers? Or with a connection to the area? Or been canvassing?
We seem short of this kind of inside information.

SandyRentool said:

So is Outraged of Amersham going to vote LibDem because they can't visit a nightclub next week?

I can't see it.

In the 40 years I've known Amersham I don't ever remember there being a nightclub. Chesham had one but it was considered naff even in 1988

Dirty Chelsea player bites the French player.

Lock him up and ban him for two years.

https://twitter.com/romankemp/status/1404888461069459463

Professor Tim Spector seems to be hinting that the PB early shout that the ‘cases’ inflation rate is slowing might be right.

“Update tomorrow” he promises…

SandyRentool said:

If Dick gets the chop, will it mark a transition for the Met?

Well Spotted, Dick may get her just desserts.

Leon said:

The cottage where I sleep dates back at least to Henry VIII: the 16th century. Possibly long before. The owners, when they restored it, found a mummified cat in the walls. Also two shoes, one 14th century - and one from the 1940s. Brilliant. That’s a ghost story right there

The estate was owned by Cardinal Wolseley who gave it to Sir Richard Rich

I love Britain.

Be a wrench when you scuttle off to whichever bastion of freedom you plump for.

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

All Irish parties have always supported Irish unity, just FF and FG support a slower timetable for it than SF do so no news there.

In any case it is a matter for the people of Northern Ireland not the Irish government

(Anyway, who would control and programme the computers?)

They're probably 10-12% behind then.

turbotubbs said:

FF43 said:

Now that IKEA have pulled their ads from GBNews do supposed wokers like me have to start frequenting that life extracting establishment? Or can we get a pass from the fact that IKEA is owned by an actual Nazi who finds GBNews too extreme?

I do have to wonder quite what GB news have done that is so offensive. This is proving everything about woke behaviour, without even having to try.

Nothing. The Spectator fought back on this by giving a lifetime ban to any organisation that played this game.

It got the Co-op to fold.

FPT

sarissa said:

Leon said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Leon said:

I just had gin, tonic and fine quirky cheeses in the garden of a quite famous Tory judge (retired) who says he encountered Sir Kir ‘Royale’ Starmer many times as Kir Royale rose through the ranks

Says Kir is outstandingly intelligent. But… zero charisma… is true

Our best prime minister is probably a combo of Boris and Royale. Boris to win elections, Royale to rule

I think that you should write a London newspaper column, say twice a week, with at least one-third (better more) devoted to your wanders to & fro across the (mostly London & English) countryside. With the spice of your views on whatever topic has got you interested - obsessed - enthralled - enraged at any given moment.

Certainly your word pictures, culinary reviews AND high-brow chit-chat are some of the best of PB.

A splendid idea!

Did you ever get to the Danakil and Erte Ale? Being a volcano junkie, it has always been on my bucket list.

And this is tonight's telegraph article
Pfizer supply shortage forces Covid vaccine rollout to slow down

Rate at which jabs dispensed set to fall further as supplies cut in hotspots where infections have taken hold among younger groups

ByBill Gardner and Laura Donnelly, HEALTH EDITOR

RobD said:

citycentre said:

This from a Whitehall leak in march as problems in vaccine supply are emerging tonight
The final milestone is due on June 21st where ALL restrictions were promised to be lifted. This will not be allowed to happen. Vaccine passports / Track and Trace will be mandatory, as will masks and social distancing. The entire week of the 21st will be taken up by a third wave, which will suddenly be ‘rampant’, and this will be attributed to a new variant which they will declare is more deadly than the previous strains of Covid allegedly doing the rounds. This will be accompanied with yet more issues with vaccine supplies. Authorities will declare that one of the vaccines is effective against the deadlier strain, but a ‘problem’ with its manufacture will emerge.

The Whitehall source went on to say –

“All the measures are aimed at two things, vaccine passports and lockdowns starting next winter, The ultimate goal is to have the public, back in their box."

What's the source for this?

The internet. Init

squareroot2 said:

Lib Dem. Internal polling... has it ever been anything like accurate,?.. or is it hope and expectation over reality.

Lib Dem internal polling is very good generally.

Also they tend to be quite good at by-elections - see Brecon, Richmond. Remember it's normal for opposition parties to do better in by-elections than the governing party typically; it's just Starmer is so shit he is going backwards in Labour's old heartlands.

The gap is I think too great for the Lib Dems to overcome here but they'll be within 10%, a decent swing from the GE.

ping said:

RobD said:

citycentre said:

This from a Whitehall leak in march as problems in vaccine supply are emerging tonight
The final milestone is due on June 21st where ALL restrictions were promised to be lifted. This will not be allowed to happen. Vaccine passports / Track and Trace will be mandatory, as will masks and social distancing. The entire week of the 21st will be taken up by a third wave, which will suddenly be ‘rampant’, and this will be attributed to a new variant which they will declare is more deadly than the previous strains of Covid allegedly doing the rounds. This will be accompanied with yet more issues with vaccine supplies. Authorities will declare that one of the vaccines is effective against the deadlier strain, but a ‘problem’ with its manufacture will emerge.

The Whitehall source went on to say –

“All the measures are aimed at two things, vaccine passports and lockdowns starting next winter, The ultimate goal is to have the public, back in their box."

What's the source for this?

The internet. Init

Conspiraloons dot com.

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

citycentre said:

And this is tonight's telegraph article
Pfizer supply shortage forces Covid vaccine rollout to slow down

Rate at which jabs dispensed set to fall further as supplies cut in hotspots where infections have taken hold among younger groups

ByBill Gardner and Laura Donnelly, HEALTH EDITOR

Tbh we'll be hitting the long demand limitation tail with first doses soon anyway so reduced supply isn't a colossal issue.

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.

ping said:

RobD said:

citycentre said:

This from a Whitehall leak in march as problems in vaccine supply are emerging tonight
The final milestone is due on June 21st where ALL restrictions were promised to be lifted. This will not be allowed to happen. Vaccine passports / Track and Trace will be mandatory, as will masks and social distancing. The entire week of the 21st will be taken up by a third wave, which will suddenly be ‘rampant’, and this will be attributed to a new variant which they will declare is more deadly than the previous strains of Covid allegedly doing the rounds. This will be accompanied with yet more issues with vaccine supplies. Authorities will declare that one of the vaccines is effective against the deadlier strain, but a ‘problem’ with its manufacture will emerge.

The Whitehall source went on to say –

“All the measures are aimed at two things, vaccine passports and lockdowns starting next winter, The ultimate goal is to have the public, back in their box."

What's the source for this?

The internet. Init

Various nutters.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/ireland-expects-uk-brexit-position-shift-following-g7-pressure-2021-06-15/

Coveney: Ireland expects UK Brexit position to shift following G7 pressure

From GB News....if you want a giggle, 2 mins onward, the lady in the red in the background appears to have a temper tantrum....initially I thought she was perhaps celebrating a goal in the footie or something, but watch he come back to her desk..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNmsygTcbHU

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.

That's his objective.

The logical implication of what he's saying though is a common market for the British Isles, and a more semi-detached relationship for Ireland within the EU.

Can someone remind me: how accurate was the LibDems constituency push polling back in (I think) 2017?

Weren’t they supposed to win 40 seats or something?

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

I wouldn't expect him to have any answers at this stage, but it's interesting that he's putting the questions out there and saying that these things need to be considered.

Commonwealth membership probably comes into the cosmetic category - but I think symbols are unusually important in this case - but it would mark a significant change in approach from Ireland.

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/ireland-expects-uk-brexit-position-shift-following-g7-pressure-2021-06-15/

Coveney: Ireland expects UK Brexit position to shift following G7 pressure

What's fascinating about the EU's behaviour at the G7 is that they're so narrow-minded and insular that crowbarring the UK back into alignment via the NI protocol is more important to them than standing up to China, or global economic recovery or climate change.

Nothing must defy The Project.

I suspect Biden was fed up of them by the end.

turbotubbs said:

FF43 said:

Now that IKEA have pulled their ads from GBNews do supposed wokers like me have to start frequenting that life extracting establishment? Or can we get a pass from the fact that IKEA is owned by an actual Nazi who finds GBNews too extreme?

I do have to wonder quite what GB news have done that is so offensive. This is proving everything about woke behaviour, without even having to try.

Lol! That's what happens when you let the free market determine everything 😂