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Reaping the Whirlwind – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153

    The risks to the under 30s are very low however. They might catch it, sure, but they are unlikely to become ill from it.
    I think the IFR for the 25-29 age group is up to about 0.06% from the Nature paper. So that is 6 deaths from every 10,000 infections. A million infections in that age group could lead to 600 deaths.

    It's not a high number in the context of the pandemic as a whole, but given that death is pretty rare for that age group anyway, that's a lot of individual tragedy for a very low level of risk.

    Would I delay the June 21st date if I was in charge? Well, no, but I don't think I would be so dismissive of the residual risk.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911

    The Government has left some wriggle room, with all its language about reviews of this, that and the other, but in practice Step 4 is assumed by the public to mean a total or near-total end to the rules.

    Or, to put it another way, how is a socially-distanced, mask-wearing nightclub meant to operate? Will there be wardens patrolling the dancefloor to keep non-household groups two metres apart and watch out for illicit snogging? I mean, honestly!
    Yes. But that may mean reduced capacity.
    To which nightclubs are already limited.
    Whether that counts as "legal restrictions' remains to be seen.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187

    The Government has left some wriggle room, with all its language about reviews of this, that and the other, but in practice Step 4 is assumed by the public to mean a total or near-total end to the rules.

    Or, to put it another way, how is a socially-distanced, mask-wearing nightclub meant to operate? Will there be wardens patrolling the dancefloor to keep non-household groups two metres apart and watch out for illicit snogging? I mean, honestly!
    Have the results of all the trials been publicised? Not as far as I know. I suspect the fact that we haven't heard means they were in fact excellent and pointed to no need to keep any rules.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,598
    edited May 2021
    Your reminder that, for a year, Facebook actually TOOK DOWN posts that merely referenced the idea the virus came from a lab


    "San Francisco Chronicle
    @sfchronicle
    ·
    4h
    Facebook announced a policy change on Wednesday, saying it would no longer remove claims that the coronavirus pandemic was the result of a lab leak."

    https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1397976502692614148?s=20
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187

    I think the IFR for the 25-29 age group is up to about 0.06% from the Nature paper. So that is 6 deaths from every 10,000 infections. A million infections in that age group could lead to 600 deaths.

    It's not a high number in the context of the pandemic as a whole, but given that death is pretty rare for that age group anyway, that's a lot of individual tragedy for a very low level of risk.

    Would I delay the June 21st date if I was in charge? Well, no, but I don't think I would be so dismissive of the residual risk.
    Hang on, though. An awful lot of under 30s have been vaccinated.

    In fact, the most vulnerable (and those living with the most vulnerable). That is likely to drive the (already low) post lifting IFR in under 30s down massively.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    I see Bashar al-Assad has won re-election with 95% percent of the vote. Some may call that implausible, that no being, human or divine, would ever get that much, but he went as low as 92% last time, so it's clearly real.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    The Government has left some wriggle room, with all its language about reviews of this, that and the other, but in practice Step 4 is assumed by the public to mean a total or near-total end to the rules.

    Or, to put it another way, how is a socially-distanced, mask-wearing nightclub meant to operate? Will there be wardens patrolling the dancefloor to keep non-household groups two metres apart and watch out for illicit snogging? I mean, honestly!
    Though going to a nightclub, music festival or even large wedding is voluntary.

    I see no sign of my hospital ending masks and social distancing in 3 weeks. Indeed I have raised this with management as SD is a major drag on productivity.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think the IFR for the 25-29 age group is up to about 0.06% from the Nature paper. So that is 6 deaths from every 10,000 infections. A million infections in that age group could lead to 600 deaths.

    It's not a high number in the context of the pandemic as a whole, but given that death is pretty rare for that age group anyway, that's a lot of individual tragedy for a very low level of risk.

    Would I delay the June 21st date if I was in charge? Well, no, but I don't think I would be so dismissive of the residual risk.
    Who was being dismissive? This is part of the problem with this whole debate. I was stating a fact - a correct fact - and you accused me of being dismissive. I was merely pointing out the risk level, which is on any reasonable metric very low.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,526
    Leon said:

    Your reminder that, for a year, Facebook actually TOOK DOWN posts that merely referenced the idea the virus came from a lab


    "San Francisco Chronicle
    @sfchronicle
    ·
    4h
    Facebook announced a policy change on Wednesday, saying it would no longer remove claims that the coronavirus pandemic was the result of a lab leak."

    https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1397976502692614148?s=20

    Airplane! on ITV4 right now!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    Meanwhile local radio star Lisa Shaw died of an AZ induced blood clot. Which means I am in the ironic position of being closer to knowing (she was a good mate of several close friends) someone who died of the vaccine rather than of Covid.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    E

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1398036092323078150?s=21
    Thank you!

    Good thread.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    You have to wonder if some sections of the media want to talk us into fearfulness..again...

    The news overall is good. Death & hospitalisations nationally are staying low despite cases rising a bit and its clear vaccination works, we just got to keep going with it and get as many vaccinated as possible.

    On the Wuhan business, the story hasnt actually changed, its the fact that the messengers are changing. I mentioned months ago on here about what was going on at Wuhan. The problem it had was shit bio security for a BSL4 and occasionally hoking about with research that they didnt need to be doing.

    A retrospective look at imagery intellgence showed something up many weeks before we even had the 'its not transmissble between humans' statement out of China. And remember, that was an official line for a short period. The US has somewhat deeper intelligence which we have had a glimpse of. Its remarkably precise that three researchers sought hospital treatement for illness, not a number, not a few..three. The intelligence take knew who and when and when they went to hospital. Apparently, though, they dont know what for...

    What the review ordered by Biden brings about is not just an assessment of what they have of note already but also a re-look at raw feeds

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,781
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Your reminder that, for a year, Facebook actually TOOK DOWN posts that merely referenced the idea the virus came from a lab


    "San Francisco Chronicle
    @sfchronicle
    ·
    4h
    Facebook announced a policy change on Wednesday, saying it would no longer remove claims that the coronavirus pandemic was the result of a lab leak."

    https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1397976502692614148?s=20

    Big tech have not had a good pandemic.
    Actually, they have, in a limited way. They've made several metric fucktonnes of money.
    But they have massively overstepped the mark in terms of restricting what can be said on their platforms.
    Twitter, Google, Facebook - it's become apparent that the theoretcial arbitrary power they yield is very much more than just theroetical. Andthat their judgement is pretty patchy.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    I see Bashar al-Assad has won re-election with 95% percent of the vote. Some may call that implausible, that no being, human or divine, would ever get that much, but he went as low as 92% last time, so it's clearly real.

    Given that on current trends Mr Houchen is going win 95% of the vote in 2025 in NE England, Mr al-Assad's 95% of the vote is looking rather plausible :wink:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely. The biggest advocates of rules seem to be those whom they don't affect.

    Lots of drivers want those on public transport to be wearing masks. Lots of people who don't go to the pubs very often wanted covid passports.

    It is interesting seeing how many Brits became pettifogging little dictators about rules, twitching their curtains and tut tutting on those who made (or were forced to make) different choices to them. It really drove me mad.
    Perhaps you were really driving yourself mad? How could you tell that the people involved were drivers/no pub goers?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    Here's summat that surprised me. The number of smokers is at a record high worldwide.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/27/number-of-smokers-has-reached-all-time-high-of-11-billion-study-finds
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Who was being dismissive? This is part of the problem with this whole debate. I was stating a fact - a correct fact - and you accused me of being dismissive. I was merely pointing out the risk level, which is on any reasonable metric very low.
    Also worth adding that - yet again, this is now common on PB and I bore myself correcting it - you have failed to stratify your data by underlying health conditions. So your 0.06% is likely to be much lower. Remember that twentysomethings with UHC have already been vaccinated…
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    Mortimer said:

    Life is not risk free. Government is not about eliminating risk.

    Those two sentences and a vague understanding of how science works should be enough to ensure that we reopen the country and society adapts in a timely manner.

    If it doesn't, I will be furious.
    I agree with you about reopening. But that does not mean that those who have not yet been jabbed should be compelled to return to work or, if they have been working, to do so with all protections removed. As has already been noted on this thread that is exactly what some employers are insisting on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,598
    edited May 2021
    Yokes said:

    You have to wonder if some sections of the media want to talk us into fearfulness..again...

    The news overall is good. Death & hospitalisations nationally are staying low despite cases rising a bit and its clear vaccination works, we just got to keep going with it and get as many vaccinated as possible.

    On the Wuhan business, the story hasnt actually changed, its the fact that the messengers are changing. I mentioned months ago on here about what was going on at Wuhan. The problem it had was shit bio security for a BSL4 and occasionally hoking about with research that they didnt need to be doing.

    A retrospective look at imagery intellgence showed something up many weeks before we even had the 'its not transmissble between humans' statement out of China. And remember, that was an official line for a short period. The US has somewhat deeper intelligence which we have had a glimpse of. Its remarkably precise that three researchers sought hospital treatement for illness, not a number, not a few..three. The intelligence take knew who and when and when they went to hospital. Apparently, though, they dont know what for...

    What the review ordered by Biden brings about is not just an assessment of what they have of note already but also a re-look at raw feeds

    Another little fact about the virus, and the lab, that I did not know


    "The lab that has been assiduously and energetically collecting coronaviruses from horseshoe bats for more than a decade, gathering a far larger collection of samples and genetic sequences than any other lab anywhere in the world, just happens to be in Wuhan, as part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Run by Dr Shi Zhengli, it boasted in 2019 of having at least 100 different Sars-like viruses in its database.

    "We cannot check these samples because the database went offline on 12 September 2019, just before the pandemic began, and Dr Shi persistently refuses to reopen it, arguing that it’s been subject to ‘hacking attempts’. Right… in September 2019? And there’s no other way to show the data? Dr Daszak says he knows what is in the database and that it is of no relevance, which is why he has not asked his friend Dr Shi to share it. Right."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-covid-lab-leak-theory-is-looking-increasingly-plausible
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    dixiedean said:

    Here's summat that surprised me. The number of smokers is at a record high worldwide.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/27/number-of-smokers-has-reached-all-time-high-of-11-billion-study-finds

    For some years tobacco companies have seen developed countries as shrinking markets, and have been targeting developing countries.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    dixiedean said:

    Here's summat that surprised me. The number of smokers is at a record high worldwide.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/27/number-of-smokers-has-reached-all-time-high-of-11-billion-study-finds

    I am sure it is explained better in the body of the article but that is a weird headline link. Taken at face value it says that there are now 4 billion more people smoking than exist in the world. Must be all those aliens Leon keeps telling us about. :)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,781
    Leon said:

    That's not true
    Which part? I'm fairly sure it is. You used to get polite queues of junkies waiting for it to open. I expect they needed a prescription or something to say they were heroin addicts and therefore needed heroin. I think this happened up until the late 60s or early 70s.

    In fact, look: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-man-who-loved-junkies-1538548.html
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I think the IFR for the 25-29 age group is up to about 0.06% from the Nature paper. So that is 6 deaths from every 10,000 infections. A million infections in that age group could lead to 600 deaths.

    It's not a high number in the context of the pandemic as a whole, but given that death is pretty rare for that age group anyway, that's a lot of individual tragedy for a very low level of risk.

    Would I delay the June 21st date if I was in charge? Well, no, but I don't think I would be so dismissive of the residual risk.
    According to the up-to-date NHS England stats, 647 people under the age of 40 have died in hospitals in England of Covid since the start of the pandemic. Scaling that up to the whole UK, and assuming a negligible number of Covid deaths outside of hospital in patients that young, would give us a rough estimate of about 750 Covid deaths amongst all the under 40s since the start of the pandemic in the UK.

    That's about 12 per week, of which we can probably assume the majority were over 30, which means that the mean Covid death rate for under 30s in the UK since the pandemic started will be running at under one per day. Moreover, for most of the duration of the pandemic, there were no vaccinations; since January, every young person in the shielding or various other clinically vulnerable categories will have been offered jabs, which should cut their risk of death by anything up to about 90% if they catch this infernal Plague. The remaining unvaccinated young will almost all be those with no underlying health conditions who were at truly minuscule risk of kicking the bucket from Covid even before vaccination began.

    Thus, since the start of April 2021, 6 people aged 20-39 and nobody at all under 20 has died of Covid in an English hospital. Six deaths is significantly lower than the number of people you would expect to die from falling off a ladder over the same period, and is broadly comparable with the expected rate of mortality likely to be caused by drowning in a bathtub.

    The remaining risk of death to the young from this illness is as near to zero as makes no difference.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Here's summat that surprised me. The number of smokers is at a record high worldwide.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/27/number-of-smokers-has-reached-all-time-high-of-11-billion-study-finds

    Only in absolute terms, not relative to total population.

    I'm surprised anyone can still afford it. I think in my university days a bottle of wine cost two packets of fans, nowadays a packet of fags buys two bottles of wine.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Foxy said:

    Though going to a nightclub, music festival or even large wedding is voluntary.

    I see no sign of my hospital ending masks and social distancing in 3 weeks. Indeed I have raised this with management as SD is a major drag on productivity.
    That doesn't surprise me. As I've said elsewhere, if I had to bet on what exactly the state of play would be post-June 21st then I would anticipate a mass scrapping of most restrictions, but for some residual incumbrances to survive on public transport and in clinical settings - as well as the continuation of international travel restrictions, and the test, trace and isolate system.

    Some more cautious employers may also be reluctant to dispense with the security blanket. I suspect that we may be lumbered with masks in corridors and temperature checks on entry at my workplace for some time yet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    I am sure it is explained better in the body of the article but that is a weird headline link. Taken at face value it says that there are now 4 billion more people smoking than exist in the world. Must be all those aliens Leon keeps telling us about. :)
    1.1 billion I think.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,598
    Cookie said:

    Which part? I'm fairly sure it is. You used to get polite queues of junkies waiting for it to open. I expect they needed a prescription or something to say they were heroin addicts and therefore needed heroin. I think this happened up until the late 60s or early 70s.

    In fact, look: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-man-who-loved-junkies-1538548.html
    Yes, they were registered addicts getting their prescribed dose of skag. The average non-registered punter couldn't wander into Boots and "buy heroin"

    As I say, it was probably a better system than the one we have now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252
    Leon said:

    Yes, they were registered addicts getting their prescribed dose of skag. The average non-registered punter couldn't wander into Boots and "buy heroin"

    As I say, it was probably a better system than the one we have now
    I know, buying that Bitcoin and going on-line is *soooo* taxing.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,781
    IshmaelZ said:

    Only in absolute terms, not relative to total population.

    I'm surprised anyone can still afford it. I think in my university days a bottle of wine cost two packets of fans, nowadays a packet of fags buys two bottles of wine.
    IshmaelZ said:

    Only in absolute terms, not relative to total population.

    I'm surprised anyone can still afford it. I think in my university days a bottle of wine cost two packets of fans, nowadays a packet of fags buys two bottles of wine.
    Tangentially, but that reminds me of a similar change; when I was at uni, typically, you could go to around three gigs for the cost of an album. Now, going to a gig costs about 4-8 times as much as an album.
    Thankfully for me I'm now 46 with three young kids and opportunities to get out and see live music are few and far between, while opportunities to sit on my arse listening to an album are plentiful. But sad for today's youth. Or maybe happy for today's youth that albums are so cheap, or, in practice, free. I'm not really sure which.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    edited May 2021
    In 1950 there were around 100 known heroin addicts in the UK, with the patients being entirely managed by doctors.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/26751155?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,231
    kle4 said:

    I see Bashar al-Assad has won re-election with 95% percent of the vote. Some may call that implausible, that no being, human or divine, would ever get that much, but he went as low as 92% last time, so it's clearly real.

    I believe 95% of the vote is now the new threshold that BJ will require before he will grant indyref II.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252

    Can you provide a link to this thread?
    The logic is fairly simple (I assume):

    Half of people (roughly) have been vaccinated, but they are by far the most vulnerable half. If unprotected they would have been much more likely to end up in hospital than the young people who have not been vaccinated at all yet.

    ...a little bit of math...

    95+% effective.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,781
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Yes, they were registered addicts getting their prescribed dose of skag. The average non-registered punter couldn't wander into Boots and "buy heroin"

    As I say, it was probably a better system than the one we have now
    Fair enough. I forget exactly what point I was making now. Possibly that legalising drug use under circumstances isn't an extreme position? Presumably that was relevant at some point in the conversation. I'm basically only staying up now to put off the moment when I have to go and find all the cats and put themthrough in their half of the house then take my youngest daughter for a nocturnal wee.
    So then. Night all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,598
    Cookie said:

    Fair enough. I forget exactly what point I was making now. Possibly that legalising drug use under circumstances isn't an extreme position? Presumably that was relevant at some point in the conversation. I'm basically only staying up now to put off the moment when I have to go and find all the cats and put themthrough in their half of the house then take my youngest daughter for a nocturnal wee.
    So then. Night all.
    Bless. A little glimpse of your domestic life!

    Goodnight to you, and goodnight to PB
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252

    Spectator TV (on Youtube) discusses the lab leak theory, and Dominic Cummings.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceXgMZv4Uwg

    It is like PB in video form (or it might be – I've not watched it yet).

    Are you saying Dominic Cummings escaped from a lab?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    edited May 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Only in absolute terms, not relative to total population.

    I'm surprised anyone can still afford it. I think in my university days a bottle of wine cost two packets of fans, nowadays a packet of fags buys two bottles of wine.
    That's UK tax. In many countries they are much cheaper. And indeed a status symbol in some.
    Cookie said:

    Tangentially, but that reminds me of a similar change; when I was at uni, typically, you could go to around three gigs for the cost of an album. Now, going to a gig costs about 4-8 times as much as an album.
    Thankfully for me I'm now 46 with three young kids and opportunities to get out and see live music are few and far between, while opportunities to sit on my arse listening to an album are plentiful. But sad for today's youth. Or maybe happy for today's youth that albums are so cheap, or, in practice, free. I'm not really sure which.
    Was £4 to watch Spurs in my first year at Uni.
    Three years later when I lived just off Tottenham High Road was £15 for a League Cup tie with Hartlepool.
    I harrumphed in outrage and never crossed the threshold on principle.
    That was the Cup winning mid table side of Gascoigne and Lineker.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Oh wow. Given how extreme Potts is, likely means that the softer side of Unionism is leaving them. Good for the UUP? If so, good for NI, and Unionism.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Are you saying Dominic Cummings escaped from a lab?
    Dom Cummings is Igor and I claim 5 CHF
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    dixiedean said:

    Here's summat that surprised me. The number of smokers is at a record high worldwide.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/27/number-of-smokers-has-reached-all-time-high-of-11-billion-study-finds

    40% of the world's population lives in China or India and I suppose more people can afford to buy them now than previously.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739
    Chameleon said:

    Oh wow. Given how extreme Potts is, likely means that the softer side of Unionism is leaving them. Good for the UUP? If so, good for NI, and Unionism.
    Opposition to the protocol has given unionism a newfound non-sectarian raison d'etre. There's now something to aim for other than clinging on to the status quo.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Andy_JS said:

    40% of the world's population lives in China or India and I suppose more people can afford to buy them now than previously.
    IIRC 20 cigarettes can be legally bought in Indonesia for less than 50p a packet.....it won't be a fancy western brand (but is probably still owned by a multinational)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Can you provide a link to this thread?
    Interesting bit of trivia, James Ward was the Lib Dem candidate for Wainbody. It is a ward in Coventry the Conservatives have never lost.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285

    IIRC 20 cigarettes can be legally bought in Indonesia for less than 50p a packet.....it won't be a fancy western brand (but is probably still owned by a multinational)
    It must be questionable whether western companies should be involved in this business.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Yokes said:

    You have to wonder if some sections of the media want to talk us into fearfulness..again...

    The news overall is good. Death & hospitalisations nationally are staying low despite cases rising a bit and its clear vaccination works, we just got to keep going with it and get as many vaccinated as possible.

    On the Wuhan business, the story hasnt actually changed, its the fact that the messengers are changing. I mentioned months ago on here about what was going on at Wuhan. The problem it had was shit bio security for a BSL4 and occasionally hoking about with research that they didnt need to be doing.

    A retrospective look at imagery intellgence showed something up many weeks before we even had the 'its not transmissble between humans' statement out of China. And remember, that was an official line for a short period. The US has somewhat deeper intelligence which we have had a glimpse of. Its remarkably precise that three researchers sought hospital treatement for illness, not a number, not a few..three. The intelligence take knew who and when and when they went to hospital. Apparently, though, they dont know what for...

    What the review ordered by Biden brings about is not just an assessment of what they have of note already but also a re-look at raw feeds

    Thanks for the updates Yokes.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    I wonder whether the Cummings performance has brought closer or put back the possible date for the Covid Inquiry? BJ must be thinking about a cabinet reshuffle (normally just before Summer recess?)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    edited May 2021
    7 hours of Cummings at the select committee.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvGxsVlISrk
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Andy_JS said:

    7 hours of Cummings at the select committee.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvGxsVlISrk


    "Sadly"... I cant see Benedict Cumberbatch reprising his portrayal of DC (Brexit the Uncivil War) again for this one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    That’s the way you do it!

    two Britons entering Indonesia refused to be quarantined, citing:
    -their rights to go anywhere per “law of the nature” 🙄
    - “law of the nature” has “higher hierarchy” than “man-made law”

    both were deported straight back to the UK.

    https://twitter.com/restyworo/status/1398123021458558978?s=21
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Absolutely nuts:

    Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who is threatening to block a cruise line from resuming service if it requires passengers to be vaccinated. But the law DeSantis signed in Florida would impose a fine of $5,000 per person required to show proof of vaccination, and the governor says he will not back down.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ron-desantis-cruise-ships-unvaccinated-passengers-florida.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252

    That’s the way you do it!

    two Britons entering Indonesia refused to be quarantined, citing:
    -their rights to go anywhere per “law of the nature” 🙄
    - “law of the nature” has “higher hierarchy” than “man-made law”

    both were deported straight back to the UK.

    https://twitter.com/restyworo/status/1398123021458558978?s=21

    And rightly so.

    WTF were they on?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252

    Absolutely nuts:

    Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who is threatening to block a cruise line from resuming service if it requires passengers to be vaccinated. But the law DeSantis signed in Florida would impose a fine of $5,000 per person required to show proof of vaccination, and the governor says he will not back down.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ron-desantis-cruise-ships-unvaccinated-passengers-florida.html

    Freedom!

    (Except to choose who your customers are)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    Tw@tter premium is now a thing...

    BBC News - Twitter: Social media giant lists new 'Blue' subscription service
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57264348
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007
    dixiedean said:

    Meanwhile local radio star Lisa Shaw died of an AZ induced blood clot. Which means I am in the ironic position of being closer to knowing (she was a good mate of several close friends) someone who died of the vaccine rather than of Covid.

    You don't "know" it was AZ induced.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007
    Will Cummings still be on the front pages this morning one wonders...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    rcs1000 said:

    And rightly so.

    WTF were they on?
    I think we are going to see a summer of entitled Brits turning up in places not realising that strict local rules about quarantine are actually being enforced..... not to mention causing chaos when 000s return from their Euro break thinking they can just waltz back in without a test booked etc...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I wonder whether the Cummings performance has brought closer or put back the possible date for the Covid Inquiry? BJ must be thinking about a cabinet reshuffle (normally just before Summer recess?)

    It'll certainly be difficult to justify stalling until next Spring if it's deemed safe enough to dump most of the remaining restrictions next month. The main justification for putting off an enquiry is to allow officials to concentrate on fighting the pandemic rather than collating evidence - a much harder case to make if the disease is effectively declared to be under control.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Another possible byelection??? A Tory-Labour tight marginal - 900 votes.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57267295
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,362

    Absolutely nuts:

    Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who is threatening to block a cruise line from resuming service if it requires passengers to be vaccinated. But the law DeSantis signed in Florida would impose a fine of $5,000 per person required to show proof of vaccination, and the governor says he will not back down.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ron-desantis-cruise-ships-unvaccinated-passengers-florida.html

    Good news for Mobile, New Orleans and Galveston?

    A bit like the EU, he should be wary of tearing up the rule book to impose his own stupid counter factual reality. It may come back to bite Florida in the arse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,362

    Another possible byelection??? A Tory-Labour tight marginal - 900 votes.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57267295

    Labour would almost certainly win on the evidence of the Assembly elections, so I think the Tories will posture but not actually do anything.

    An unflattering contrast to Starmer, who brought heavy and successful pressure to bear on Mike Hill to resign even though it caused him a great deal of political trouble.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    rcs1000 said:

    And rightly so.

    WTF were they on?
    This seems to be the couple.

    https://en.tempo.co/read/1464467/soekarno-hatta-airport-police-nab-2-britons-dodging-quarantine
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082
    edited May 2021

    Will Cummings still be on the front pages this morning one wonders...

    They have moved on to “don’t steal our summer”....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57277286

    Although Hancock and care homes still features, from the telegraph to the mirror
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    ydoethur said:

    Good news for Mobile, New Orleans and Galveston?

    A bit like the EU, he should be wary of tearing up the rule book to impose his own stupid counter factual reality. It may come back to bite Florida in the arse.
    I suspect none of those would be great embarkation points. Why not start in the Bahamas?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Foxy said:

    This seems to be the couple.

    https://en.tempo.co/read/1464467/soekarno-hatta-airport-police-nab-2-britons-dodging-quarantine
    Hey @Foxy I see Alicia is campaigning for a Leicestershire flag.

    What would your suggestion be?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,362
    Foxy said:

    This seems to be the couple.

    https://en.tempo.co/read/1464467/soekarno-hatta-airport-police-nab-2-britons-dodging-quarantine
    And it even gives the answer to Mr Smithson Jr’s question - Etihad EY-474.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,362
    Foxy said:

    I suspect none of those would be great embarkation points. Why not start in the Bahamas?
    Because Americans are fiercely patriotic and want to embark in the States? :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    TOPPING said:

    Hey @Foxy I see Alicia is campaigning for a Leicestershire flag.

    What would your suggestion be?
    We already have one, albeit not official:

    https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Leicestershire-Flag-5-x-3-FT-100-Polyester-With-Eyelets-Leicester-/353389663260?_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l49286

    I have one, which I fly at music festivals. It is useful to have a distinct flag in order to find your tent, though I also fly Oliver Cromwells Commonwealth Flag
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Foxy said:

    We already have one, albeit not official:

    https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Leicestershire-Flag-5-x-3-FT-100-Polyester-With-Eyelets-Leicester-/353389663260?_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l49286

    I have one, which I fly at music festivals. It is useful to have a distinct flag in order to find your tent, though I also fly Oliver Cromwells Commonwealth Flag
    Need a few of your namesake on there.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,536
    Good morning everyone. Has summer actually come? Dr F, didn't know there was a Cromwellian Commonwealth flag.
    One or two people round here fly the Essex seaxes flag.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    You don't "know" it was AZ induced.
    The Coroner is investigating, so we should find out in time:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-57267169.amp

    The type of blood clots being associated with the vaccine is quite distinctive, being associated with a number of other blood abnormalities. There is some similarity to the Heparin Induced Thrombocytopenia syndrome.

    We are seeing numbers of rather odd vascular events, often a month or two post vaccine or post covid, mostly the latter, but hard to pin down convincing proof as usually the blood tests are back to normal. We have always seen the odd peculiar clot, so could just be coincidence, but sometimes the timeframe is highly suspicious in people with no other risk factors.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Good morning everyone. Has summer actually come? Dr F, didn't know there was a Cromwellian Commonwealth flag.
    One or two people round here fly the Essex seaxes flag.

    Yes, it is rather good, it preceeds the Union Flag.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082

    Good morning everyone. Has summer actually come? Dr F, didn't know there was a Cromwellian Commonwealth flag.
    One or two people round here fly the Essex seaxes flag.

    Now we’ve braved those snowstorms, it’s full ahead to summer. Which fully arrives Sunday, by the look of it, and might actually stick around, at least for a week or two....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,536
    edited May 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Now we’ve braved those snowstorms, it’s full ahead to summer. Which fully arrives Sunday, by the look of it, and might actually stick around, at least for a week or two....
    Was there actually any snow anywhere?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    Interesting that the allegations against the Kids Company Trustees didn't stand up to scrutiny:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/28/ban-kids-company-trustees-cost-taxpayers-8m-camila-batmanghelidjh
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Foxy said:

    Interesting that the allegations against the Kids Company Trustees didn't stand up to scrutiny:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/28/ban-kids-company-trustees-cost-taxpayers-8m-camila-batmanghelidjh

    All of public life these days resembles a special musical edition of “Line of Duty”.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    Interesting that the allegations against the Kids Company Trustees didn't stand up to scrutiny:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/28/ban-kids-company-trustees-cost-taxpayers-8m-camila-batmanghelidjh

    It is still being investigated by the Charity Commission. I wouldn't rush to the conclusion yet that Camila and plans have been the paragons of proper behaviour.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Does anyone know the background to this case? I know she has mentioned PTSD as the reason for taking time off but I can't she has given much in the way of details.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/27/war-ptsd-nadia-whittome-mp-diagnosis
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2021
    Forgive me if i am somewhat sceptical about the AZ vaccine . Has the government gone too far down the road of backing it to now back away from it? If (as it seems very likely) a BBC young presenter can die from it isn't it worth thinking how many BBC presenters are there (not huge numbers) and conclude that the risk of dying from it is not "less than 1 in a 100,000) but greater?
    I think we trust the government too much , Iraq lies , wartime secrets (perhaps necessary at the time of course) show the government does lie when it thinks it needs to - Is it doing it here? Also think of the scandals like the Post Office convictions ? We trust authority too much

    Anyway I will be literally playing Russian roulette next week when i get my second jab of AZ. Odds may be better than 5 in 6 but not sure they are 99999 in 100000
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Why did voters end up with the terrible choice of Boris Johnson vs Jeremy Corbyn? Labour cared too little about winning elections, the Conservatives cared too much. I try to answer Dominic Cummings’ question in @newstatesman. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/05/why-did-voters-end-terrible-choice-boris-johnson-vs-jeremy-corbyn
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082
    edited May 2021

    Was there actually any snow anywhere?
    No. In Britain, at least.

    Had there been, last night's thread would have consisted of non-stop posts crowing about his superforecasting prowess from LeadronicT

    As it is, doubtless he was "merely relaying concerns"....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,807
    IanB2 said:

    They have moved on to “don’t steal our summer”....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57277286

    Although Hancock and care homes still features, from the telegraph to the mirror
    Hmmm. How on earth did this Indian variant get here? The people responsible should be hauled into No10 to explain themselves to the PM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Forgive me if i am somewhat sceptical about the AZ vaccine . Has the government gone too far down the road of backing it to now back away from it? If (as it seems very likely) a BBC young presenter can die from it isn't it worth thinking how many BBC presenters are there (not huge numbers) and conclude that the risk of dying from it is not "less than 1 in a 100,000) but greater?
    I think we trust the government too much , Iraq lies , wartime secrets (perhaps necessary at the time of course) show the government does lie when it thinks it needs to - Is it doing it here? Also think of the scandals like the Post Office convictions ? We trust authority too much

    Anyway I will be literally playing Russian roulette next week when i get my second jab of AZ. Odds may be better than 5 in 6 but not sure they are 99999 in 100000

    That's flawed logic and confirmation bias. Just because there's 1 BBC presenter doesn't make the true odds 1 in 100,000 since BBC presenters aren't the proper denominator. You're only looking at BBC presenters as it happened to one of them, but you're not looking at all the categories where it is 0 out of however many.

    Its tragic, but the numbers are out there. From memory its about ~58 of these incidents, from ~35 million jabs which is about 1.5 per million jabs.

    Does make me wonder now though given the low prevalence, I got a first AZ jab but am under-40 so the advice is not to take AZ now. So it makes me wonder if its possible to get Pfizer or another for the second jab instead of AZ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    MrEd said:

    It is still being investigated by the Charity Commission. I wouldn't rush to the conclusion yet that Camila and plans have been the paragons of proper behaviour.
    It will be interesting to see, but the Trustees being exonerated and receiving costs is quite a pointer to the way it is going.

    It is not a charity that I have ever supported.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,001

    Spectator TV (on Youtube) discusses the lab leak theory, and Dominic Cummings.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceXgMZv4Uwg

    It is like PB in video form (or it might be – I've not watched it yet).

    Thanks for pointing us to this. It is Newsnight for grown-ups - a very welcome oasis in the desert of broadcast news and comment.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850

    That's flawed logic and confirmation bias. Just because there's 1 BBC presenter doesn't make the true odds 1 in 100,000 since BBC presenters aren't the proper denominator. You're only looking at BBC presenters as it happened to one of them, but you're not looking at all the categories where it is 0 out of however many.

    Its tragic, but the numbers are out there. From memory its about ~58 of these incidents, from ~35 million jabs which is about 1.5 per million jabs.

    Does make me wonder now though given the low prevalence, I got a first AZ jab but am under-40 so the advice is not to take AZ now. So it makes me wonder if its possible to get Pfizer or another for the second jab instead of AZ?
    i appreciate its not exact science taking BBC presenters as a tribe (whats the collective term for them?) but it has to make people question the official line i think . Its not as if the government does not lie when it needs to . Didnt Churchill say the truth is the first casualty of war?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2021

    i appreciate its not exact science taking BBC presenters as a tribe (whats the collective term for them?) but it has to make people question the official line i think . Its not as if the government does not lie when it needs to . Didnt Churchill say the truth is the first casualty of war?
    If they were lying the truth would out.

    If it were 1/100,000 then from 35m jabs there'd need to not be ~58 deaths but ~350. I suspect some of the families of the ~300 extra people who'd died would raise a red flag if their deaths hadn't been registered.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007
    Foxy said:

    The Coroner is investigating, so we should find out in time:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-57267169.amp

    The type of blood clots being associated with the vaccine is quite distinctive, being associated with a number of other blood abnormalities. There is some similarity to the Heparin Induced Thrombocytopenia syndrome.

    We are seeing numbers of rather odd vascular events, often a month or two post vaccine or post covid, mostly the latter, but hard to pin down convincing proof as usually the blood tests are back to normal. We have always seen the odd peculiar clot, so could just be coincidence, but sometimes the timeframe is highly suspicious in people with no other risk factors.
    Yes quite possibly, but that's why I put know in inverted commas.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    IanB2 said:

    So if someone dies who has a rare profession, the odds are higher still? Completely flawed logic.

    Had the PM succumbed to covid, since there's only one Prime Minister that would have established a death rate of 100% ???

    I think a statistics refresh might be in order here!
    It's not a totally unreasonable approach to take, in the absence of good information and when there may be some doubt about the official account. I remember at the start of the pandemic when Iran was playing down the extent of the outbreak, the high proportion of MPs who got sick or died was a signal that there was something awry with the official story there. Having said that, I have had the AZ jab and will have my second in July without too many qualms. It's quite possible that the risks are a bit higher than officially stated, but still quite low and better than catching Covid.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,552
    Can you point me to a determination that the BBC presenter died of blood clots etc and that it was linked to the particular vaccine, rather than any other cause?

    Serious question - without a medical verdict, or ideally an Inquest, it is a leaning tower of speculation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,191
    Leon said:

    I just had drinks with a smart leftwing friend. We talked about the usual gossip, but then we talked about the lab leak and he laughed it all off as conspiracy theory nonsense

    It is amazing how easily intelligent people buy into bullshit, if it accords with their political beliefs.

    My guess is, for my friend, the fact that Trump banged the lab leak drum transcends everything else. It saves him time thinking about the idea, as he can just presume it is nonsense, because Trump also believed it

    We talked for a while, tho. And I saw doubts in his eyes. At one point he said "does it even matter if it came from the lab, what do we gain from knowing that"

    I mean, my God

    In fairness to him he asked for evidence, I have given it to him, and he seems perplexed
    Off topic

    That is batshit crazy story!

    So perhaps it was the bats after all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    It will be interesting to see, but the Trustees being exonerated and receiving costs is quite a pointer to the way it is going.

    It is not a charity that I have ever supported.
    £6.4m of costs for the defence vs £400k for the prosecution seems unbalanced
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    Can you point me to a determination that the BBC presenter died of blood clots etc and that it was linked to the particular vaccine, rather than any other cause?

    Serious question - without a medical verdict, or ideally an Inquest, it is a leaning tower of speculation.

    Post hoc propter hoc fallacy
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    edited May 2021

    If they were lying the truth would out.

    If it were 1/100,000 then from 35m jabs there'd need to not be ~58 deaths but ~350. I suspect some of the families of the ~300 extra people who'd died would raise a red flag if their deaths hadn't been registered.
    It does also ascribe to the UK Government a rather impressive amount of power worldwide, seeing as the analyses and extrapolations have been done by scientists in many countries.

    I am sceptical that all of these scientists have such compliance with whatever Boris Johnson of the UK wants.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    MrEd said:

    Does anyone know the background to this case? I know she has mentioned PTSD as the reason for taking time off but I can't she has given much in the way of details.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/27/war-ptsd-nadia-whittome-mp-diagnosis

    I gather that there was a specific traumatic episode, but the media are not giving details if they know them (and there's no reason why she should feel she has to give us details), and to be fair I think they're behaving responsibly in not doing so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082

    This thread is unfit for office

This discussion has been closed.