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Two highlights from this morning – HealthSec Hancock the main target – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    England PCR Positivity (%)

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    I'm fully expecting Tories to be up 2 or 3 points after this afternoon.

    Nothing seems to dent some of the public's love of Johnson and his clown act.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,938

    My point was sarcasm. Some people insist we would always have been slaves of the feared ECJ had we not become a 3rd country, and that we can just ignore WTO rules now having done so.
    This is a misunderstanding. No-one sensible has ever said that a country can't or shouldn't choose to bind itself to rules within the international order. But in many cases when in the EU you don't have a choice, lots of choices normally belonging to a state are made by this elaborate trade association possessing increasing state like trappings.

    Most Brexit supporters do want to be in the WTO, but all Brexit supporters want it to be a UK decision.

  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Amazon buys Hollywood studio MGM for $8.45bn

    Too much money and not enough sense. If they've that amount of money to throw away they could at least knock a couple of hundred quid off that new camera I want.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Fenman said:

    There goes any chance of Lord Cummings of Amersham & Chesham.

    Dunno. When Rishi or Gove is PM in 2025?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,007

    I'm fully expecting Tories to be up 2 or 3 points after this afternoon.

    Nothing seems to dent some of the public's love of Johnson and his clown act.

    I could see a drop in the poll ratings but as I have said, more to do with the lockdown debacle
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    Dunno. When Rishi or Gove is PM in 2025?
    Has he mentioned Gove at all?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    Andy_JS said:

    There's a presidential election in less than 12 months.
    I would now argue being generous to French double-vaxed tourists incoming from perhaps August when we are all vaxed.

    Good for the balance of payments.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    UK case summary

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  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    We've got another week or so to go until we see if the VOCs are having a serious effect. Bolton figures showing a rise in admissions and ITU.
    But we already know that the variant isn't spreading like wildfire as per the Kent Plague, and that most of the new hospital admissions are amongst the unvaccinated.

    The jabs are working. We are not going back to January.

    Frankly it doesn't much matter if the number of Covid patients doubles or triples in a few isolated hotspots. If the hospitals begin to struggle then you simply chuck the excess sufferers into the backs of a flotilla of ambulances and distribute them amongst the numerous hospitals that have less than 5 remaining Covid cases left to treat. Job done.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    UK hospitals

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    I'm fully expecting Tories to be up 2 or 3 points after this afternoon.

    Nothing seems to dent some of the public's love of Johnson and his clown act.

    He could get bitten by Carrie and the dog.

    The Mail will go to town on that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408

    Because he is competent?
    That may be true. At least in comparison to the rest of Johnson's pathetic Cabinet.

    But I suspect there's a bigger reason. Dom is 4 moves ahead don't forget.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    Where's @kinabalu ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    7m
    I'm not sure the idea Rishi is Dom's man is necessarily going to help Rishi moving forward.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    UK deaths

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,007
    Stocky said:

    Has he mentioned Gove at all?
    Yes and gave him a free pass
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,674
    Carnyx said:

    That's because there is a majoritarian phenomenon in England under FPTP at Westminster, ie the Tories usually winning being part of it. PR would put a very different perspective on the entire matter.
    But given that each English Parliament would have a ruling party (and presumably most would be Tory at the moment), that effect would surely be magnified?

    The whole point of a federal structure is surely that in some circumstances, England counts as 'just a nation' among nations, and is not granted more influence by virtue of its large population - it 'takes one for the team'. I am comfortable with that. The desire to break England into cantons runs wholly counter to that aim. Scotland and Wales would in effect be 'other Yorkshires' - something which many would strongly object to.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,905
    Good grief is this still going? I thought it was just until lunchtime.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I didn't say they were correct in their analysis, but I do think there will be a bit of prurient interest form within the village, but a large slug of "meh", too. But being mean about a dog...that's not cricket.
    Especially after making so much of the unfortunate hound on the cameras for PR purposes.

    Not quite Cruella De Vil (wrong gender for a start, also less well dressed) but the principle stands.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708
    Stocky said:

    Where's @kinabalu ?

    Most likely a liquid lunch in a discreet bar in Belsize Park.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    But we already know that the variant isn't spreading like wildfire as per the Kent Plague, and that most of the new hospital admissions are amongst the unvaccinated.

    The jabs are working. We are not going back to January.

    Frankly it doesn't much matter if the number of Covid patients doubles or triples in a few isolated hotspots. If the hospitals begin to struggle then you simply chuck the excess sufferers into the backs of a flotilla of ambulances and distribute them amongst the numerous hospitals that have less than 5 remaining Covid cases left to treat. Job done.
    Absolutely. It is a testament to the vaccine. It's unlikely to have a serious impact - but we shouldn;t fully count the chickens for another week or so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    7m
    I'm not sure the idea Rishi is Dom's man is necessarily going to help Rishi moving forward.

    I think that all depends on what exactly you mean by "help".
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    edited May 2021

    Most likely a liquid lunch in a discreet bar in Belsize Park.
    Yeah, in his cloth cap and cravatte. Munching oysters*.

    *not a sexual reference.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408

    Good grief is this still going? I thought it was just until lunchtime.

    Just ended.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    But given that each English Parliament would have a ruling party (and presumably most would be Tory at the moment), that effect would surely be magnified?

    The whole point of a federal structure is surely that in some circumstances, England counts as 'just a nation' among nations, and is not granted more influence by virtue of its large population - it 'takes one for the team'. I am comfortable with that. The desire to break England into cantons runs wholly counter to that aim. Scotland and Wales would in effect be 'other Yorkshires' - something which many would strongly object to.
    That's the issue - either England accepts that the other nations have a veto (in effect) which would upset a lot of its voters ('why should we count for no more than the Nirish?', they might say). Or it doesn't, and therefore either overrides the other nations by population share, or by being broken up into cantons.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    It's no coincidence, there is a 15 second delay in broadcast so any state secrets, swearing etc can be muted. Handy for the BBC.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    Good grief is this still going? I thought it was just until lunchtime.

    I think it is tomorrow as well.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    EU-Swiss talks broke down over freedom of movement:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2021/0526/1224063-switzerland-european-union/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777

    Apologies I missed the point. A limit of the internet not of your writing.

    As you probably know I am a big advocate of EFTA membership. Since I am in favour of open borders I would also have ben happy with EEA membership. CU membership is just impossible due to the EUs own treaty rules.
    Indeed. We could have created a CU-lite arrangement where we are not members of The CU but avoid the customs catastrofuck we are suffering.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Andy_JS said:

    It's true that a decent opposition would be 10% ahead given everything that's happened. Something the Corbynistas are right about.

    They are right that a decent opposition would be 10% ahead.

    Their mistake is in thinking that *they* would be that decent opposition.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    UK vaccinations

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    CFR

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    It's no coincidence, there is a 15 second delay in broadcast so any state secrets, swearing etc can be muted. Handy for the BBC.
    State secrets apparently including Ms Kuenssberg, one wonders?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    Which vaccine manufacturer is the EU suing?



    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#global-vaccinations

    I'm not sure those numbers are correct* - they certainly don't match the numbers from Bloomberg or the NYTimes.

    Also, the EU has told AZ they don't want any more shipments post June, so I'd be very surprised if a lawsuit actually happened.

    * They may have been correct in the past, but I don't think they're correct now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,220
    Stocky said:

    He could get bitten by Carrie and the dog.

    The Mail will go to town on that.
    To adjust the old saw, BJ biting the dog would be the news. Poor, old Dilyn would need a jag after that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,759
    Carnyx said:

    That's the issue - either England accepts that the other nations have a veto (in effect) which would upset a lot of its voters ('why should we count for no more than the Nirish?', they might say). Or it doesn't, and therefore either overrides the other nations by population share, or by being broken up into cantons.

    Succinctly put.
    I can't see any solution bar a unitary state or dissolution, and I can't see any takers for the former.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    algarkirk said:

    This is a misunderstanding. No-one sensible has ever said that a country can't or shouldn't choose to bind itself to rules within the international order. But in many cases when in the EU you don't have a choice, lots of choices normally belonging to a state are made by this elaborate trade association possessing increasing state like trappings.

    Most Brexit supporters do want to be in the WTO, but all Brexit supporters want it to be a UK decision.

    If we left the EU but remained in the EEA via EFTA it would not have been the EU making any decisions, it would be EFTA. It is a failing of logic and frankly intelligence when the two get conflated as being the same.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082

    Most likely a liquid lunch in a discreet bar in Belsize Park.
    You used "discrete" to describe something connected with one of the SeanTs...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Cookie said:

    Succinctly put.
    I can't see any solution bar a unitary state or dissolution, and I can't see any takers for the former.
    Pretty much what we concluded in 2012-3 here. I did rather elide my earlier comments as I didn't believe for a moment that equal status was much fo a goer, but Luckyguy has made some good points/queries anyway.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    dixiedean said:

    Yep. One of my best mates lives in Sydney. Over the past week he has posted pictures of his vacation in Tasmania, including visits to plenty of restaurants and bars, his daughters packed indoor 21st birthday party, and massive crowds at sporting events.
    Apart from the travel bans, they are living more normally than us, and have been largely throughout.
    “Apart from the travel bans”.

    This is the problem though. The population think there’s no point in vaccines because it can be controlled easily enough the way it has been so far. There is fairly widespread support for just keeping the border closed forever. Friends of mine in their mid 30s there have now got jabbed, by simply wandering in to vaccine centres with no appointment and finding bored nurses with nothing to do. With just 3 million first doses given.

    Singapore has a similar tale to tell. 30% of at-risk citizens declining the vaccine. And a government that has no inclination to do anything about it and happy just to keep the borders closed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not sure those numbers are correct* - they certainly don't match the numbers from Bloomberg or the NYTimes.

    Also, the EU has told AZ they don't want any more shipments post June, so I'd be very surprised if a lawsuit actually happened.

    * They may have been correct in the past, but I don't think they're correct now.
    They're on the CDC website - take your pick.

    As to the EU suing ANZ:

    EU seeking €10 per day per missing dose from #AstraZeneca for its failure to meet delivery schedule, as of 1 July. Plus €10 million for each breach of contract.

    AstraZeneca is expected to be 200 million doses short by the end of June.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1397516727492222979?s=20


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777

    You used "discrete" to describe something connected with one of the SeanTs...
    I am sure that his artisan flint dildos would be shipped in discreet packaging.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    Leon said:

    Of course. My Aussie family sends me the same depressing photos (depressing for a European)

    Most Brits would take Australia's Closed Borders Strategy. Add in our vaccine drive, and Korea's test and trace, and there, you have the right response to the pandemic

    It means some Brits would end up stuck in India or America or wherever. Sorry. That's tough, but it's better than 200,000 dead
    Except we've discussed this already.

    Australians can travel to Australia. They just have hotel quarantine upon arrival in Australia.

    Hence the fact that there are multiple flights a day to Australia from the US.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Absolutely. It is a testament to the vaccine. It's unlikely to have a serious impact - but we shouldn;t fully count the chickens for another week or so.
    I understand where you're coming from, but the problem here is that, moving forward, there are going to be new variants and nasty little clusters of cases cropping up for a long, long time to come. And we can't be having a wetting episode each time this happens, or else Covid panic will keep cycling round and round on television and in the stupid newspapers, and we'll never be able to get on with our lives.

    Unless or until a significant degree of vaccine escape occurs - and, as time passes, it looks increasingly likely that the virus has driven itself into an evolutionary cul-de-sac, and we are therefore fairly safe from this - then it's important that these episodes aren't magnified out of all proportion. Localised surge testing (and, until the whole program is completed, surge vaccination) seem an entirely sufficient and proportionate response.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,674
    Carnyx said:

    That's the issue - either England accepts that the other nations have a veto (in effect) which would upset a lot of its voters ('why should we count for no more than the Nirish?', they might say). Or it doesn't, and therefore either overrides the other nations by population share, or by being broken up into cantons.

    Well yes, that is the issue that got the likes of our Phillip so exercised when I proposed a 'Council of the Isles' to ratify major foreign policy and defence decisions. However, I see no real loss - I suspect it would result in less 'Iraqs' and less expensive defence white elephants. In that sense I see it being very popular with actual English people.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,627
    Cummings says 99% of civil service jobs should be open to outsiders.
    Why on earth did he not focus on this rather than all of his other obsessions?

    Just change the HR rules to let external people apply by default and sit back and relax in the knowledge you have profoundly transformed Whitehall for all time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited May 2021
    Carnyx said:

    That's the issue - either England accepts that the other nations have a veto (in effect) which would upset a lot of its voters ('why should we count for no more than the Nirish?', they might say). Or it doesn't, and therefore either overrides the other nations by population share, or by being broken up into cantons.

    Why should it accept that? For starters on occasion in the past the other home nations have overridden what England wanted anyway, eg 1950, 1964, February 1974 when England voted Tory but got a UK Labour government. If Starmer becomes PM in 2024 it will almost certainly happen again thanks to SNP MPs propping him up.

    Plus in no other Federal nations do individual states get a veto on defence or Federal tax policy, that is what you elect the Federal governments to manage. However individual states do determine most of their domestic policy anyway, as Scotland, Wales and NI now do and as England would with its own Parliament
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Dom's tales of the Mayor of Jaws do not match the cowardly way the Government have kept us in this lockdown months past the point deaths were eliminated.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    rcs1000 said:

    Except we've discussed this already.

    Australians can travel to Australia. They just have hotel quarantine upon arrival in Australia.

    Hence the fact that there are multiple flights a day to Australia from the US.
    “Just have hotel quarantine”.

    Robert this is a major impediment to travel and effectively a complete block if you have children.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    They're on the CDC website - take your pick.

    As to the EU suing ANZ:

    EU seeking €10 per day per missing dose from #AstraZeneca for its failure to meet delivery schedule, as of 1 July. Plus €10 million for each breach of contract.

    AstraZeneca is expected to be 200 million doses short by the end of June.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1397516727492222979?s=20


    Yes, but they're not actually going to sue. Because there is no case.

    This is all political posturing by the EU, to distract from their failings. And now that they've finally gotten their vaccination drive working, it will be quietly dropped.

    Ultimately, there is no case. The contracts are clear, and there is no guarantee and there is certainly no "penalty payment".

    This is like when a celebrity says they're going to sue someone for libel. It's a way of changing the conversation away from the EU's failings.

    In general, I'd reckon the ratio between "I'm going to sue you" and "People actually getting sued" is probably about 10:1.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    A bit of "wood for trees" going on here....

    The unwelcome move by France to tighten travel restrictions is a direct consequence of the failure of the UK to put India on the red list immediately following the emergence of the terrible and urgent health crisis unfolding in India” – Brittany Ferries.

    https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1397566685293461511?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2021
    Stocky said:

    I'm sorry Leon but that's ridiculous. Australia has behaved abominably to its own citizens. Seems they have been more authoritarian than even we have.
    Once you’re in Australia, it’s been party central bar a few brief local lockdowns.

    The problem has been getting there in the first place. The limited hotel capacity they have available, means that only a few hundred people can arrive in each city every day, so the airlines have been given maximum numbers of people per plane in the double digits. The airlines can’t work with mostly empty planes, so are only selling business and first tickets. So if you’re in the UAE (as a random example), it is going to cost you AUS$10k for flight and quarantine. The flights are all still ‘sold out’ though.

    Maybe they could have built a massive tent city on an airfield somewhere, to allow more people in, but the basic issue is that millions of Aussies don’t live there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    moonshine said:

    “Apart from the travel bans”.

    This is the problem though. The population think there’s no point in vaccines because it can be controlled easily enough the way it has been so far. There is fairly widespread support for just keeping the border closed forever. Friends of mine in their mid 30s there have now got jabbed, by simply wandering in to vaccine centres with no appointment and finding bored nurses with nothing to do. With just 3 million first doses given.

    Singapore has a similar tale to tell. 30% of at-risk citizens declining the vaccine. And a government that has no inclination to do anything about it and happy just to keep the borders closed.
    Yeah it sure is. Taiwan is another with huge vaccine hesitancy.
    But what level would ours have been if the rollout hadn't coincided with huge cases and lockdown? Not too different I reckon.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    Age related data

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    Back above 3 000 cases.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,759
    Looking through today's stats, quite a few places look likely to see a sudden surge in rates: Oldham, Rochdale, Manchester, South Ribble, Birmingham, Charnwood, Blaby ... Hopefully not on the scale of Bolton, but we'll see,
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    Age related data scaled to 100k population

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  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    If we left the EU but remained in the EEA via EFTA it would not have been the EU making any decisions, it would be EFTA. It is a failing of logic and frankly intelligence when the two get conflated as being the same.
    A point I have been trying to make to both sides of the argument for more than a decade. EFTA (if they would have us which I accept is by no means certain) really doesn't have any downsides as far as I am concerned.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Cookie said:

    Succinctly put.
    I can't see any solution bar a unitary state or dissolution, and I can't see any takers for the former.
    Except many won't acknowledge, let alone face up to, the consequences of the latter
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    dixiedean said:

    Yeah it sure is. Taiwan is another with huge vaccine hesitancy.
    But what level would ours have been if the rollout hadn't coincided with huge cases and lockdown? Not too different I reckon.
    I disagree.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,913
    edited May 2021

    They're on the CDC website - take your pick.

    As to the EU suing ANZ:

    EU seeking €10 per day per missing dose from #AstraZeneca for its failure to meet delivery schedule, as of 1 July. Plus €10 million for each breach of contract.

    AstraZeneca is expected to be 200 million doses short by the end of June.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1397516727492222979?s=20
    So what does that come to? €100billion give or take?

    Shame they didn't value the vaccine that much when they ordered it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It's no coincidence, there is a 15 second delay in broadcast so any state secrets, swearing etc can be muted. Handy for the BBC.
    If that's true why wasn't the swearing censored?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    COVID Summary

    The rise in cases continues. This is still in the less vaccinated age groups. Otherwise steady or falling

    image

    The rise in admissions continues. This is still in the less vaccinated age groups. Otherwise steady or falling

    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,523
    rkrkrk said:

    Cummings says 99% of civil service jobs should be open to outsiders.
    Why on earth did he not focus on this rather than all of his other obsessions?

    Just change the HR rules to let external people apply by default and sit back and relax in the knowledge you have profoundly transformed Whitehall for all time.

    I thought that, to some degree anyway, Thatcher had done that.

    It's either that they are not, in fact, advertised, or that (perish the thought) no-one applies.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    Dom's tales of the Mayor of Jaws do not match the cowardly way the Government have kept us in this lockdown months past the point deaths were eliminated.

    I think it matches very well with the apparent mindset and chaos of last year. And have you never heard of overcompensation?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    moonshine said:

    “Just have hotel quarantine”.

    Robert this is a major impediment to travel and effectively a complete block if you have children.
    That's the idea though.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    I plotted a graph of cases by specimen date against hospitalisations one week later to see if there was a vaccine effect on the ratio. Unsurprisingly it was much higher during the peak (presumably due to missing a large number of cases); however, more interestingly it seems to have been in roughly the same place in mid-May as it was at the end of December (hospitalisations at roughly 5% of cases a week before).

    This seems a bit odd in the context of vaccinations breaking the link between cases and hospitalisations.

    I suppose one explanation might be that vaccinated people simply aren't catching Covid in any large numbers so the impact of vaccinations is seen in case numbers rather than hospitalisations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    So what does that come to? €100billion give or take?
    I will happily bet anyone £100 that the case will never see the inside of a court.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,689

    So what does that come to? €100billion give or take?
    Does it matter?

    There are 2 things worth noting here - I don't remember any clauses with such penalties in the published contract and it screams don't do business with the EU...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,938
    Evidence in which the account says that some people can't do anything right and others can't do anything wrong is, in normal circumstances, incomplete with regard to accuracy. This tendency discredits the entire operation except where evidence is both significant and corroborated.

    I don't think there is anything here to harm Boris and friends right now. Though obvs there is stuff which can be used to add weight once his wheels come off. That isn't yet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    moonshine said:

    I disagree.
    If we'd never had a significant outbreak, nor a national lockdown nor serious restrictions of any kind?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, but they're not actually going to sue.
    They were in court this morning:

    A lawyer for the European Union asked a Brussels court on Wednesday to impose a large fine on AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for its delays in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to the EU.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-seeks-huge-fine-astrazeneca-vaccine-delays-2021-05-26/

    Although what AZ PLC has got to do with a case against AZ AB is anyone's guess....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777

    A point I have been trying to make to both sides of the argument for more than a decade. EFTA (if they would have us which I accept is by no means certain) really doesn't have any downsides as far as I am concerned.
    I (regretfully at the time, regretted massively now that it has turned into a clusterfuck) voted to leave the EU as we were increasingly incompatible with its political integration strategy. Stepping off in our own time in preference to being removed in their own time. What we have gone foaming-at-the-mouth crazy with is our drive to cut all trade links with the EU.

    There is still a way out of this. Rejoin EFTA. Marketing it as a bulwark against EU bullying or whatever. Just get up able to import and export again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708
    rcs1000 said:

    I will happily bet anyone £100 that the case will never see the inside of a court.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-seeks-huge-fine-astrazeneca-vaccine-delays-2021-05-26/

    A lawyer for the European Union asked a Brussels court on Wednesday to impose a large fine on AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for its delays in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    edited May 2021
    According to Google Flights, you can fly today from LAX to Melbourne for $2,335. Although you will need to pay for hotel quarantine when you get to the other end.

    And you will need to be Australian. Obviously.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566

    COVID Summary

    The rise in cases continues. This is still in the less vaccinated age groups. Otherwise steady or falling

    image

    The rise in admissions continues. This is still in the less vaccinated age groups. Otherwise steady or falling

    image

    Hmmm
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    Also: you can fly TOMORROW on Emirates from Dubai to Melbourne for $1,691.

    That's not $10k.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Cummings says his decision to quit No 10 was linked to Carrie Symonds, the PM’s partner, trying to change various Downing Street appointments. In particular, he says she was trying to change the outcome of one official hiring process in a way that was “completely unethical”.

    But he says his relationship with the PM had deteriorated. “Fundamentally I regarded him as unfit for the job,” says Cummings.

    That’s actually the big one.

    Symonds doesn’t have a job in No.10, but has previously worked for the party and knows everyone.

    Presumably she doesn’t hold a security clearance, which would be an interesting line of questioning...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Another Boris Fanboi.....

    While experts & those following closely know the system failed & how much suffering was preventable, I think broader public want to move forward, forget Covid & see vaccines as the solution. Have to keep optimism about normal life ahead with sobriety over the mistakes made.

    https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1397582208676810753?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-seeks-huge-fine-astrazeneca-vaccine-delays-2021-05-26/

    A lawyer for the European Union asked a Brussels court on Wednesday to impose a large fine on AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for its delays in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to the EU.
    You should have taken the bet :smile:

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    They were in court this morning:

    A lawyer for the European Union asked a Brussels court on Wednesday to impose a large fine on AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for its delays in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to the EU.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-seeks-huge-fine-astrazeneca-vaccine-delays-2021-05-26/

    Although what AZ PLC has got to do with a case against AZ AB is anyone's guess....
    Indeed.

    The point is that this is a smokescreen to hide the EU's failings, not a serious attempt to extract money from AZ.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    edited May 2021

    I thought that, to some degree anyway, Thatcher had done that.

    It's either that they are not, in fact, advertised, or that (perish the thought) no-one applies.
    One of the things I strongly disagreed with about the Thatcher era was the way in which they changed rules in some parts of the public sector

    In 1986 just after leaving Uni I had a summer job at the British Geological Survey. There was a lady there who was a renowned expert on a system of clay analysis known as X-Ray Goniometry - a vitally important technique for analysing clay minerals in North Sea cores - it was used as part of the process of checking oil companies were being honest in their declarations of reserves.

    Anyway, a period of reform swept through many institutions and in the case of the BGS it basically meant that jobs were reclassified with a minimum education level. In the case of her position you had to have a PhD. Which she didn't have. So she had to reapply for her own job and didn't get it because she didn't have the necessary qualifications. Even though there was probably no-one in the country who knew more about the subject than she did.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    rcs1000 said:

    According to Google Flights, you can fly today from LAX to Melbourne for $2,335. Although you will need to pay for hotel quarantine when you get to the other end.

    And you will need to be Australian. Obviously.

    And you need to get permission before you fly.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672

    If that's true why wasn't the swearing censored?
    I think public attitudes have changed to the point that factually reporting that someone allegedly said "fuck" is not regarded by most as offensive. We see it here too - the word pops up 20 times a day, whereas if you used it in the early days it'd probably have got you suspended.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    4m
    Within 24 hours we will have Matt Hancock's response to Cummings's claims.

    Labour has called an urgent question for tomorrow, which Hancock is likley to respond to in Commons.

    Hancock is also expected to do a Covid press conference tomorrow.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,200
    One point on Hancock. Cummings said he suggested breaking up the Health departments roles and thinks it was a mistake not to do so.

    This is something I said repeatedly at the time. It made no sense to have one cabinet minister responsible for maybe 4 or 5 of the most important 6 things in government at the time, whilst someone as senior as Gove had few responsibilities.

    During the peak emergency period we should have had a Cab Sec for Health Procurement, another for Testing, another for Hospitals, another for Care Homes (or something similar).

    I can believe Hancock was as incompetent as Cummings suggests, but I doubt anyone could have done his role properly in that period. The underlying mistake is overloading one manager rather than spreading the work and responsibility out to enough resource.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    moonshine said:

    “Just have hotel quarantine”.

    Robert this is a major impediment to travel and effectively a complete block if you have children.
    But that's exactly the same as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc (although those countries accept non citizens who go through the quarantine).

    The goal is to stop any CV19 cases entering the country. And a proper quarantine regime is the best way to achieve it. Now two weeks in a shitty hotel room is pretty miserable. But it's not prison. And if you need to return to Australia it's perfectly achieveable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    rcs1000 said:

    Also: you can fly TOMORROW on Emirates from Dubai to Melbourne for $1,691.

    That's not $10k.

    Because very few citizens are being admitted:

    You can travel to Australia if you are an Australian citizen, a permanent resident or a New Zealand citizen usually resident in Australia.

    Australia has strict border measures in place to protect the health of the Australian community. Very limited flights are currently available to and from Australia and you may not be able to travel at this time.


    https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/australian-citizen-or-permanent-resident
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Philip Collins
    @PhilipJCollins1
    ·
    1h
    Boris Johnson is both a formidable electoral politician and fundamentally ill-equipped for high office. Lots of senior Tories knew what they were giving us.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242

    And you need to get permission before you fly.
    According the the Australian government website, you need to fill in this: https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/australia-travel-declaration

    It doesn't look too onerous.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    5h
    If voters are indifferent to D Cummings’ accounts of the chaos behind the scenes as Covid struck and subsequently ...they shouldn’t be.


    A 'change the voters' view?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    rcs1000 said:

    Also: you can fly TOMORROW on Emirates from Dubai to Melbourne for $1,691.

    That's not $10k.

    Thing is, you can't cherry pick the strategy. When does Australia expect to open its borders? According to that Spiked article, not any time soon. It might be a case of the hare and the tortoise.

    They have taken it slowly but for how much longer will the country be closed? Three months? Six months? A couple of years?

    That's no way to run a country.

    I'd take Boris' option any day of the week and trust me I can't f**king believe I am saying that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    @CarlottaVance

    That site has the reasons why you might be refused permission to return to Australia:

    red response (with a cross), if you indicated that you:
    have COVID-19 like symptoms
    have been near a person with COVID-19 symptoms.
    have been in an location of interest in New Zealand
    have not acknowledged the need to have a negative COVID-19 test result to travel to Australia

    And I believe they have a blanket ban on people who've been in India in the previous 14 days, but I don't see that on the site.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited May 2021

    A bit of "wood for trees" going on here....

    The unwelcome move by France to tighten travel restrictions is a direct consequence of the failure of the UK to put India on the red list immediately following the emergence of the terrible and urgent health crisis unfolding in India” – Brittany Ferries.

    https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1397566685293461511?s=20

    I would say it is a direct consequence of the U.K. being virtually the only country to do genome sequencing in any bulk. Although I wouldn’t be totally surprised to discover that there is collusion between the French and U.K. Govt’s given the U.K. official position that people should not travel to amber countries on holiday.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408

    One point on Hancock. Cummings said he suggested breaking up the Health departments roles and thinks it was a mistake not to do so.

    This is something I said repeatedly at the time. It made no sense to have one cabinet minister responsible for maybe 4 or 5 of the most important 6 things in government at the time, whilst someone as senior as Gove had few responsibilities.

    During the peak emergency period we should have had a Cab Sec for Health Procurement, another for Testing, another for Hospitals, another for Care Homes (or something similar).

    I can believe Hancock was as incompetent as Cummings suggests, but I doubt anyone could have done his role properly in that period. The underlying mistake is overloading one manager rather than spreading the work and responsibility out to enough resource.

    Except one of the big plans going forward is to bring NHS England back into government as being directly managed by the Health Sec, whereas at moment it is arms length and Stevens has a lot more control.
This discussion has been closed.