Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Two highlights from this morning – HealthSec Hancock the main target – politicalbetting.com

13567

Comments

  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    Andy_JS said:

    Do you honestly still believe the UK is number one for deaths?
    Now that the vaccines are taking effect, the UK is no longer Number One!

    We’re headed for roughly the average EU death toll by the looks of things. Which is both good - no more deaths! But also an indictment of EU / Western governments in general. Taiwan and South Korea have shown that you can crush Covid without devastating economic effects & NZ has shown that there was nothing uniquely “Asian” about being able to do so either.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,304
    DavidL said:

    We are currently 26th on that list of excess deaths per 100k but we are falling fairly quickly given that our deaths have for statistical purposes pretty much stopped.

    One of the odd things about a pandemic is that it might be better to get hit hard early on, as that will result in greater compliance during future waves on infection. Countries that got off lighltly last year are now being hammered, and their populations are already bored of lockdowns and so less inclined to comply with restrictions.

    By the time this pandemic is all over I think the UK will be seen to have faired relatively well.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    Haven’t been listening to the DC testimony but lots of tweets on him making clear that Kuenssbeg was his go to sewage outfall. Was this revelation as stark as it sounds?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,035

    No1 ?


    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
    The problem with excess deaths per 100k is that it penalises countries with older populations (UK, Spain, Italy) while flattering those with younger ones (Brazil, India).

    Much better is to user percentage excess deaths.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813

    26th for excess deaths per capita as of today:

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    Apart from that, good point!
    Nevertheless 50% greater excess deaths compared with France and three times Germany. I think there's a challenge to be made about why this is so.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    Phil said:

    Now that the vaccines are taking effect, the UK is no longer Number One!

    We’re headed for roughly the average EU death toll by the looks of things. Which is both good - no more deaths! But also an indictment of EU / Western governments in general. Taiwan and South Korea have shown that you can crush Covid without devastating economic effects & NZ has shown that there was nothing uniquely “Asian” about being able to do so either.
    Keep an eye on Taiwan. Was looking iffy last week, they may have got on top of it, but early days.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Yes, I think it's a fair prediction from Philip. It looks like a straight race between the UK and US I would say, and our lower rate of antivax should mean we get there first. The caveat to that is that the US has already dropped its mask mandate and life is pretty much open there, whereas we have a few more weeks to wait.

    I take the earlier point about Israel – but I wouldn't class it as a major country. Population 8-9 million and a GDP outside the top 30.
    Although only one jab, which only gives 33%? I actually went out all day last Saturday to a sporting event. Sitting there guzzling beer in the sunshine, feeling much better for the experience. 🙂

    On the plus side, it didn’t feel weird at all surrounded by people milling around in close proximity, in the walkways and the stands.

    On the negative side, despite reduced capacity, all the measures and effort to enforce spacing, masks, hands, if COVID was high in the community it would have been a spreader event as there’s still so much close contact. What I am looking for from vaccination programme is it rarely in future getting that high community again we have to close down grouping together again once freedom gets going.

    Boasting about first major country to beat the pandemic is a bit early, and outside political ping pong, not really priority

    PS UK government not as good at roll out as Wales, and should learn from them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000wc4t
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133
    DavidL said:

    We are currently 26th on that list of excess deaths per 100k but we are falling fairly quickly given that our deaths have for statistical purposes pretty much stopped.
    We're also practically the only country that has had significantly less excess deaths compared to the official death toll. Not sure why that is.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Over 75% off British adults now have covid antibodies -
    https://msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/more-than-three-quarters-of-adults-have-covid-antibodies/ar-AAKoQdC?ocid=uxbndlbing
    Glorious news, and surely we are now on the way out of this. By the 21st of June this should be well over 80% if not a lot higher, plus some of the kids will have recovered/been exposed to covid too. A glorious day.

    Be a great idea to bring it forward three days to 8pm on Friday 18 June – and use the England vs Scotland match at Wembley as a very high profile stake in the ground.

    Monday is a rubbish day of the week.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FF43 said:

    Nevertheless 50% greater excess deaths compared with France and three times Germany. I think there's a challenge to be made about why this is so.
    Population density and obesity rates.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    They're spoiling us:

    Prince Harry and Oprah Winfrey are to revisit their documentary about mental health with a follow-up, Apple TV+ said on Wednesday, adding that the series had brought a 25% increase in new viewers to the streaming platform.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/prince-harry-oprah-reunite-mental-health-follow-up-show-2021-05-26/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    glw said:

    One of the odd things about a pandemic is that it might be better to get hit hard early on, as that will result in greater compliance during future waves on infection. Countries that got off lighltly last year are now being hammered, and their populations are already bored of lockdowns and so less inclined to comply with restrictions.

    By the time this pandemic is all over I think the UK will be seen to have faired relatively well.
    The one thing the Sweden egghead got right, all those breathless daily comparisons in the first few weeks, he said wait 2 years then see...
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    glw said:

    One of the odd things about a pandemic is that it might be better to get hit hard early on, as that will result in greater compliance during future waves on infection. Countries that got off lighltly last year are now being hammered, and their populations are already bored of lockdowns and so less inclined to comply with restrictions.

    By the time this pandemic is all over I think the UK will be seen to have faired relatively well.
    The other thing to always remember is that we have the ONS who count very well.

    Other Countries not so much.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534

    For a taster, the media moan about their lack of foreign holdiays at every press conference....

    Just like Cummings said we should have had a South Korean style tracing system, we should have closed the borders...but the backlash would have been immense...i mean the media lost their shit over the thought of deeping to get into the pub, where as in Israel people just said so where do I download this app from....
    The media are not the country. Indeed, this is one of Cummings’ core critiques of UK government - that they pay far too much attention to what the Westminster Village media has to say & far too little to the rest of the country.

    I think the people would (on average) have been perfectly willing to co-operate with closing the borders, if it was seen to be be fairly applied & universal. Just like they have been with all the other constraints put on them as a consequence of the pandemic, much to the surprise of that self-same gaggle of media types.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Taz said:

    He’s a reformed problem gambler turned useful idiot for the anti gambling lobby. He’s treated as an expert witness when he’s really either a lobbyist or aiding the lobbyists for more restrictions on gambling
    He was bagning on about affiliate marketing of forex trading scams the other day...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133

    The one thing the Sweden egghead got right, all those breathless daily comparisons in the first few weeks, he said wait 2 years then see...
    Interesting fact is that Sweden is doing better than most European countries on Covid-19. It's only if you compare them to the other 4 Nordic countries that they're doing badly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Be a great idea to bring it forward three days to 8pm on Friday 18 June – and use the England vs Scotland match at Wembley as a very high profile stake in the ground.

    Monday is a rubbish day of the week.
    Please don't. You'll upset HYUFD.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Auto-correct.
    LOL. The go-to excuse for any Oxbridge bungler.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813
    edited May 2021

    Population density and obesity rates.
    Don't think so on population density at least. Denmark has a high population density and a fraction of the UK's excess deaths.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Cookie said:

    Ok, sorry Roger. Second best. Israel did better.
    LOL. the Welsh government is thrashing Boris https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000wc4t
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    Phil said:

    The media are not the country. Indeed, this is one of Cummings’ core critiques of UK government - that they pay far too much attention to what the Westminster Village media has to say & far too little to the rest of the country.

    I think the people would (on average) have been perfectly willing to co-operate with closing the borders, if it was seen to be be fairly applied & universal. Just like they have been with all the other constraints put on them as a consequence of the pandemic, much to the surprise of that self-same gaggle of media types.
    I don't disagree...but politicians do worry about it and it clouds their judgement.

    Also, worth noting, the behavioural science lot said to the government the public wouldn't stick to a lockdown for more than a few weeks total. So it has to be perfectly timed and a one off.

    If you are being told that is the extent of the options, thinking you could shut off the whole country (and not just the media, businesses would have gone ape) seems an even bigger impossible step.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    DougSeal said:

    Keep an eye on Taiwan. Was looking iffy last week, they may have got on top of it, but early days.
    They’re having an outbreak & may well go back into lockdown, but the rates are still low. If they do go into lockdown, it’ll be a sign of the competence of their government frankly.

    They do seem to be a long way behind with vaccines though - not sure why that is.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,035
    As an aside, I think Russia may well be the number one worst country in the world for percentage excess deaths during Covid.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    I suppose the SNP can now finally rule out winning DavidL’s vote.

    https://twitter.com/alistairkgrant/status/1397546922362220552?s=21
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting fact is that Sweden is doing better than most European countries on Covid-19. It's only if you compare them to the other 4 Nordic countries that they're doing badly.
    That comes back to my "given" concept I set out below. A country with the population density and homogeneity of Sweden should do well, almost regardless of its policies. Like our policies these may affect the rate of infection and death but not the ultimate outcome (without vaccines).

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Phil said:

    Now that the vaccines are taking effect, the UK is no longer Number One!

    We’re headed for roughly the average EU death toll by the looks of things. Which is both good - no more deaths! But also an indictment of EU / Western governments in general. Taiwan and South Korea have shown that you can crush Covid without devastating economic effects & NZ has shown that there was nothing uniquely “Asian” about being able to do so either.
    Although in NZ's case there was something unique about being an extremely remote archipelago, 1,600 miles across the South Pacific from anywhere, that nobody needs to visit for any purpose other than hobbit-bothering.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133
    edited May 2021
    Phil said:

    They’re having an outbreak & may well go back into lockdown, but the rates are still low. If they do go into lockdown, it’ll be a sign of the competence of their government frankly.

    They do seem to be a long way behind with vaccines though - not sure why that is.
    It's difficult not to conclude that countries that did well at the start — like Taiwan — have been far less urgent about vaccinating their populations, which doesn't really make sense because you can't ever fully open up your society until you do vaccinate people. It doesn't matter how successful you were in stopping the virus to begin with.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I think Russia may well be the number one worst country in the world for percentage excess deaths during Covid.

    Russia or Belarus, probably.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    I suppose the SNP can now finally rule out winning DavidL’s vote.

    https://twitter.com/alistairkgrant/status/1397546922362220552?s=21

    Yeah, I was wavering for a while but the Greens? Spit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    The number of countries now that have had a good covid war is down to single figures...South Korea, NZ, Australia and maybe (I am rather suspious as they neither went full metal lockdown nor have South Korean style high tech surveillance) Nigeria.

    And none are doing well on vaccinations. NZ is a total f##k up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133
    Cicero said:

    While I can understand why the blue corner is spinning more wildly than an exploding neutron star today, the truth is that the Tory government has been revealed as a bunch of tenth rate chancers and incompetents. This was not news, but when the ultimate insider confirms most of the rumours, it is not great for the Tories under any circumstances. As for the authoritarians who want to keep Prital Patel´s knee on the neck of the UK economy with her mindless and stupid restrictions, well good luck with that. Of course Cummings is loathed more than Johnson is, so it won´t kill the useless PM nor his useless government, at least not yet. On the other hand the stage is set for the ultimate collapse of confidence in the Tories and it may well come from within. They are not going to get any better, so "never glad, confident morning again"

    The Gammon faction of GB News supporters, Faragistes, and assorted unpleasant anti woke conspiracists who are making so much noise today know in their hearts that they could well be backing the wrong horse.

    Those of us who are not drunk on HyperTory Media Bullshit do remember that Governments usually lose elections rather than Oppositions winning them, so I would not write off SKS as the next PM quite yet.

    A terrible government heading for a landslide victory at the next election — because the opposition are useless.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Carnyx said:

    Please don't. You'll upset HYUFD.
    :D

    Whoops, let's not start that again.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,170
    Andy_JS said:

    We're also practically the only country that has had significantly less excess deaths compared to the official death toll. Not sure why that is.
    Eyeballing the FT graphs, the UK is unusual in how much it has a winter flu season- there's a regular noticeable peak in the death rate Jan/Feb. 15k or so?
    I don't think we've had a flu season this year, thanks to all the anti-Covid measures. So they appear in the Covid accounts as a negative.

    Say 150k actual Covid deaths minus 20k lives saved by being better at hygiene, 130k excess deaths?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    The other thing to always remember is that we have the ONS who count very well.

    Other Countries not so much.
    Absolutely right. When they bring up the comparison table UK compared to France, Spain, Russia, China, Peru, we have to be sceptical about the stats.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Phil said:

    They’re having an outbreak & may well go back into lockdown, but the rates are still low. If they do go into lockdown, it’ll be a sign of the competence of their government frankly.

    They do seem to be a long way behind with vaccines though - not sure why that is.
    The wealthy Pacific Rim nations have been universally pisspoor at vaccinating their populations: see also Japan, NZ, Australia...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131

    Although in NZ's case there was something unique about being an extremely remote archipelago, 1,600 miles across the South Pacific from anywhere, that nobody needs to visit for any purpose other than hobbit-bothering.
    Sigh...i was to supposed to have been going hobbit bothering last year.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Although in NZ's case there was something unique about being an extremely remote archipelago, 1,600 miles across the South Pacific from anywhere, that nobody needs to visit for any purpose other than hobbit-bothering.
    And tuataras. I have a very soft spot for tuataras.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592

    Eyeballing the FT graphs, the UK is unusual in how much it has a winter flu season- there's a regular noticeable peak in the death rate Jan/Feb. 15k or so?
    I don't think we've had a flu season this year, thanks to all the anti-Covid measures. So they appear in the Covid accounts as a negative.

    Say 150k actual Covid deaths minus 20k lives saved by being better at hygiene, 130k excess deaths?
    We're also currently in a pretty significant 'shadow' with deaths running significantly below average, likely as a large proportion of covid deaths did not have long to live either way and they can't die twice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,035

    The other thing to always remember is that we have the ONS who count very well.

    Other Countries not so much.
    While that's true for measuring "covid", most (developed) countries do a pretty good job of raw counting of births and deaths.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Actually I don't think he was at all arrogant about it. He worked his butt off, and was the only major politician really making the case vigorously. It's a complex story, of course, not just one cause - but the bottom line is, the buck stops with the voters. They are the ones that made the decision, no one else. You can't blame the solicitor who advised you against a purchase if you instruct her to go ahead with the purchase.

    It's not like (say) Boris screwing up the Covid policy in the lead-up to Christmas, which was unambiguously a failure of his government and no-one but his government. That's a big, big difference.
    You do yourself no credit defending a man who’s actions with respect to Gupta and Greensill it is difficult for me to talk about, without inviting a libel case. Cameron was a chump. He ran the most damaging foreign policy of the last many decades. And with his post office behaviour, it should be clear to all but cultists what he really is. Boris might be chaotic and poor at giving consistent communication. But his appointments and big decisions have far surpassed Cameron. Which says a lot about Cameron.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    rcs1000 said:

    The proportion of intergenerational households is very predictive of Covid deaths.

    Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway - v. low and did well.
    Germany - q. low did pretty well.
    France - q high and did reasonably poorly.
    Italy, Spain - high and did v poorly.
    Where’s the UK on the IGH index? Pretty low I would have thought.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    What is interesting, South Korea with all its tech and preparations, but nowhere with vaccinations, and also in developing one or effective treatments.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    It's difficult not to conclude that countries that did well at the start — like Taiwan — have been far less urgent about vaccinating their populations, which doesn't really make sense because you can't ever fully open up your society until you do vaccinate people. It doesn't matter how successful you were in stopping the virus to begin with.
    Exactly. It's also a missed opportunity, because vaccinating in a low-prevalence enivironment is safer, quicker and easier. They could have just got it done – same goes for NZ – it's been a wasted year for Jacinda.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Sigh...i was to supposed to have been going hobbit bothering last year.
    I went a few years back – I'm not a massive LOTR fan but the weird hills in the King Country do look entirely fictional!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Eyeballing the FT graphs, the UK is unusual in how much it has a winter flu season- there's a regular noticeable peak in the death rate Jan/Feb. 15k or so?
    I don't think we've had a flu season this year, thanks to all the anti-Covid measures. So they appear in the Covid accounts as a negative.

    Say 150k actual Covid deaths minus 20k lives saved by being better at hygiene, 130k excess deaths?
    I think that is very important. All that washing your hands whilst singing happy birthday and wiping down every surface we come in contact with nonsense has probably had a completely negligible effect on Covid transmission but it removed our winter flu season which in turn massively reduced the pressure on the NHS. Had we had anything like a conventional flu season January could have been catastrophic.

    Was this just luck or was it recognised that this could be a very useful side benefit if people could be persuaded to change their behaviour in the face of the mortal threat of Covid? I am really not sure. Hopefully one day we will find out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,478
    BREAKING: Switzerland cancels ratification of framework agreement with EU. "Based on the results of negotiations in recent months, the [Swiss] Federal Council has determined that the talks with the EU ... haven't led to the necessary solutions," said Swiss President Guy Parmelin.

    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1397550573956837389
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Andy_JS said:

    Also, flights from India should have been stopped as soon as the Indian variant was identified. They were deliberately allowed to continue for about 5 days, presumably in order not to upset people who wanted to get back to the UK. And that's why a lot of people ended up in hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant.

    Bollocks to that. They ended up in hospital because the silly buggers turned down the vaccine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Boris’s desire to remove Matt Hancock in the next reshuffle is widely-rumoured in SW1. Last week Sky News speculated we could have faced a reshuffle today, which would likely have spelt the end for the Health Secretary; the claims were immediately quashed by numerous sources, however, including to Guido directly when he made inquiries. He now hears from allies of the PM that a reshuffle should absolutely not be expected before June 21st. Given Parliament’s summer recess begins the day after and runs through to September 6th, it would seem rational to suspect the obvious date for a reshuffle will be between September 6th and the start of Tory conference on October 3rd.

    -----

    We are never getting rid of Gavin Williamson are we?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    England wicketkeeper Ben Foakes will miss the two Tests against New Zealand in June with a hamstring injury, while opener Haseeb Hameed and keeper Sam Billings have been added to the squad.

    Hameed looked like the new Boycott when he got his chance a few years ago. Could never understand what went wrong for him, as technically he looked sound (unlike every other opener England have tried since).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,170
    Andy_JS said:

    A terrible government heading for a landslide victory at the next election — because the opposition are useless.
    We've implicitly assumed that good at politics (making alliances, telling a compelling story, campaigning effectively) is a good proxy for being good at government (running the country in a way that makes life better for it's citizens). That's worked reasonably well since I started voting in 1992.

    At some point, political parties worked out how to hack the system and run a brilliant campaign with no governmental competence to back it up. Not just one party, and not just in 2019. But Boris'n'Dom are definitely the acme of this technique.

    Si monumentum requiris circumspice
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Boris’s desire to remove Matt Hancock in the next reshuffle is widely-rumoured in SW1. Last week Sky News speculated we could have faced a reshuffle today, which would likely have spelt the end for the Health Secretary; the claims were immediately quashed by numerous sources, however, including to Guido directly when he made inquiries. He now hears from allies of the PM that a reshuffle should absolutely not be expected before June 21st. Given Parliament’s summer recess begins the day after and runs through to September 6th, it would seem rational to suspect the obvious date for a reshuffle will be between September 6th and the start of Tory conference on October 3rd.

    -----

    We are never getting rid of Gavin Williamson are we?

    Might as well let him first take the flak for whatever this year’s exam season brings, based on his policy choices...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,521
    What, the Johnson/Patel/Raab/Truss/Williamson Cabinet turned out to be out of their depth? Shit, no?
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1397553810260824066
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    BREAKING: Switzerland cancels ratification of framework agreement with EU. "Based on the results of negotiations in recent months, the [Swiss] Federal Council has determined that the talks with the EU ... haven't led to the necessary solutions," said Swiss President Guy Parmelin.

    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1397550573956837389

    Now is definitely the time for EFTA membership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Roger showing again that private education was wasted on him....more bullshit claims than Prof Peston.

    Harsh, that's really harsh.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,181

    England wicketkeeper Ben Foakes will miss the two Tests against New Zealand in June with a hamstring injury, while opener Haseeb Hameed and keeper Sam Billings have been added to the squad.

    Hameed looked like the new Boycott when he got his chance a few years ago. Could never understand what went wrong for him, as technically he looked sound (unlike every other opener England have tried since).

    Did he not get injured. He shone very briefly. Looked the part. Then vanished.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,697

    England wicketkeeper Ben Foakes will miss the two Tests against New Zealand in June with a hamstring injury, while opener Haseeb Hameed and keeper Sam Billings have been added to the squad.

    Hameed looked like the new Boycott when he got his chance a few years ago. Could never understand what went wrong for him, as technically he looked sound (unlike every other opener England have tried since).

    Yes, agree about Hameed. His fulfilment of that early potential has always been my hope for England's opening batting future.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,832
    Andy_JS said:

    Russia or Belarus, probably.
    I wouldn't be surprised by Peru ending up at the very top.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Did Dominic Cummings have a good word to say about anyone ?

    (Other than himself).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133
    Leon said:

    Fuck me

    ‘On border closures 👇
    Before April: Official repeated advice was not to close borders. "Another groupthink thing said it was basically racist to close the borders." That was the official advice, the official advice was closing the borders would have no effect.’

    50,000 were killed by Wokeness

    +1

    Most important revelation of the day. (As if we didn't already know).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Sigh...i was to supposed to have been going hobbit bothering last year.
    Presumably , if you self-identify as orc, you can still go for your holibobs in Mordor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    Taz said:

    Did he not get injured. He shone very briefly. Looked the part. Then vanished.
    He broke a finger which meant he lost his place. Then went 3 seasons in county cricket struggling to get out of single figures. The drop off was quite incredible.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2021

    Where’s the UK on the IGH index? Pretty low I would have thought.
    Quite high in places like Bolton, Leicester etc that have been hard hit I would have thought.

    The UK (esp. Eng) disastrous housing policy and high ethnicity mix probably put us higher than you'd expect I would have thought.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133

    No, people died because closing the border was thought not to have an effect. It's right there in the SAGE minutes.
    But how could anyone possibly believe that? If the virus is in China, Italy and Spain, but not in the UK, how does not stopping travel from those countries to the UK not prevent the virus from reaching the UK?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Now is definitely the time for EFTA membership.
    I wonder if the Swiss pharma industry had a view on this given the AZ nonsense.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    BREAKING: Switzerland cancels ratification of framework agreement with EU. "Based on the results of negotiations in recent months, the [Swiss] Federal Council has determined that the talks with the EU ... haven't led to the necessary solutions," said Swiss President Guy Parmelin.

    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1397550573956837389

    https://twitter.com/NotInnovation/status/1397553454038585345
    England to join federation as 27th Canton, president announced. "they can keep their queen and the tea drinking but the english will all have to learn schwyzerdütsch" he added, "and by the way the lake district doesn't count as mountains"
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,181
    Phil said:

    They’re having an outbreak & may well go back into lockdown, but the rates are still low. If they do go into lockdown, it’ll be a sign of the competence of their government frankly.

    They do seem to be a long way behind with vaccines though - not sure why that is.
    It’s having dire economic consequences too

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/world-s-supply-of-chips-is-in-danger-unless-taiwan-gets-vaccines
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,973


    Did Dominic Cummings have a good word to say about anyone ?

    (Other than himself).

    Yeah, lots of scientists are brilliant. And middle rankers in the civil service. And Fields prize winners.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,478

    Now is definitely the time for EFTA membership.
    In response, the Commission has withdrawn mutual recognition for Swiss medical devices.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_2684
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    DavidL said:

    I think that is very important. All that washing your hands whilst singing happy birthday and wiping down every surface we come in contact with nonsense has probably had a completely negligible effect on Covid transmission but it removed our winter flu season which in turn massively reduced the pressure on the NHS. Had we had anything like a conventional flu season January could have been catastrophic.

    Was this just luck or was it recognised that this could be a very useful side benefit if people could be persuaded to change their behaviour in the face of the mortal threat of Covid? I am really not sure. Hopefully one day we will find out.
    Given that Florence Nightingale intuitively understood it, I suspect there was an alement of 'it can't do any harm'.

    Mind, she *and the more progressive Victorians in general* really understood the importance of ventilation. Look at one of the late C19 Army barrack blocks, for instance. Tall, openable windows, one per bed bay (ideally, but often).
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,181

    He broke a finger which meant he lost his place. Then went 3 seasons in county cricket struggling to get out of single figures. The drop off was quite incredible.
    I didn’t realise it was that bad. He’s shown some mental toughness to come back from that. Good for him
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    In response, the Commission has withdrawn mutual recognition for Swiss medical devices.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_2684
    Foot, shooting, much?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,973

    https://twitter.com/NotInnovation/status/1397553454038585345
    England to join federation as 27th Canton, president announced. "they can keep their queen and the tea drinking but the english will all have to learn schwyzerdütsch" he added, "and by the way the lake district doesn't count as mountains"
    Its a deal!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Globally, half of the top 20 countries/territories vaccinated are either British Overseas Territories, Crown Dependencies, or the UK:

    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#global-vaccinations
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813

    Eyeballing the FT graphs, the UK is unusual in how much it has a winter flu season- there's a regular noticeable peak in the death rate Jan/Feb. 15k or so?
    I don't think we've had a flu season this year, thanks to all the anti-Covid measures. So they appear in the Covid accounts as a negative.

    Say 150k actual Covid deaths minus 20k lives saved by being better at hygiene, 130k excess deaths?
    That's why some countries in East Asia and Scandinavia mainly had fewer deaths than average, despite Covid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,959

    Eyeballing the FT graphs, the UK is unusual in how much it has a winter flu season- there's a regular noticeable peak in the death rate Jan/Feb. 15k or so?
    I don't think we've had a flu season this year, thanks to all the anti-Covid measures. So they appear in the Covid accounts as a negative.

    Say 150k actual Covid deaths minus 20k lives saved by being better at hygiene, 130k excess deaths?
    Which is another good illustration as to why excess deaths isn’t anything like a gold standard measure of how countries have dealt with the virus crisis. There are far too many other factors feeding into it to muddy the water.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    He broke a finger which meant he lost his place. Then went 3 seasons in county cricket struggling to get out of single figures. The drop off was quite incredible.
    Anyone remember Mark Lathwell.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272


    Did Dominic Cummings have a good word to say about anyone ?

    (Other than himself).

    Sunak.

    (And he wasn't complementary about himself.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    Must admit that piccaninnies, watermelon smiles and letterboxes BJ not closing the borders cos he was scared that Wokies would call him a racist was not the hot take I was expecting today.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    IanB2 said:


    Which is another good illustration as to why excess deaths isn’t anything like a gold standard measure of how countries have dealt with the virus crisis. There are far too many other factors feeding into it to muddy the water.

    Up to a point, but it's way more golden than any other standard we have at the moment, and maybe will ever have.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Foot, shooting, much?
    They really seem to have lost the place in recent times. An organisation that needs the UK government to behave even vaguely sensibly brings a whole new meaning to dysfunctional.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    DavidL said:

    That comes back to my "given" concept I set out below. A country with the population density and homogeneity of Sweden should do well, almost regardless of its policies. Like our policies these may affect the rate of infection and death but not the ultimate outcome (without vaccines).

    Sweden doing well depends on which metric you use. On the most obvious of deaths as a proportion of population yes they do well compared to the UK. Although even there not that great as they are in 33rd place with 1,418 deaths per million people compared to the UK with 1,873 deaths per million.

    But on the metric of covid cases per head of population they are actually doing terribly. They are in 11th place with 105,000 cases per million people. For comparison the UK is in 50h place with 65,000 cases per million people.

    So we perhaps need to look at what Sweden do right in terms of treating those who catch Covid but also look at what they did wrong in terms of allowing so many people to catch it in the first place.

    Compared to the rest of Scandinavia you are right they did terribly.

    I probably would not be classing Sweden as a country that 'did well'.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,304
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I think Russia may well be the number one worst country in the world for percentage excess deaths during Covid.

    Russia's excess deaths were so high at the end of last year than the only plausible explanation if they weren't down to COVID-19 is that another secret pandemic must be hitting them at the same time. To be fair the Russian "ONS" did attribute the other 100k plus deaths to COVID-19, and even the Russian government conceded in the end as I suspect they were stumped for any alternative to blame the deaths on.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,181
    gealbhan said:

    Anyone remember Mark Lathwell.
    Two tests in the early nineties wasn’t it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133
    Most Red Wall voters will write Cummings off as a "boffin". Voters in the south-east may take a different view.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    Taz said:

    I didn’t realise it was that bad. He’s shown some mental toughness to come back from that. Good for him
    I am not over egging it either, I am fairly sure he didn't even manage a 50 in 3 seasons, got dropped to the 2nd team and eventually released. Would have been very easy just to pack it in, especially as it isn't like football where being a reserve is worth millions. County cricket pay is crap.

    Then last season showed some improvement.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,973
    Surely China is doing best. But is it the lockdown or their vaccines?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281


    Did Dominic Cummings have a good word to say about anyone ?

    (Other than himself).

    Several - Valance, some other bods this morning, Bingham.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,331
    edited May 2021

    In response, the Commission has withdrawn mutual recognition for Swiss medical devices.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_2684
    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-uk-norway-trade-deal-may-collapse-as-christian-democrats-block-pact-to-protect-farmers-from-british-beef-and-cheese/

    I think both Norway and Switzerland are going to have to join the EU and sooner rather than later. Meanwhile our mickey mouse trade deals with economies we can´t actually do much trade with do not make up for the total shambles of the collapse in EU/UK trade. Then in 5 years time, when we ask to effectively rejoin, we get locked out and the EFTA half way house is not available. That really is shooting yourself in the foot.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133

    Must admit that piccaninnies, watermelon smiles and letterboxes BJ not closing the borders cos he was scared that Wokies would call him a racist was not the hot take I was expecting today.

    Why else didn't he close the borders? And why didn't he immediately stop flights from India.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    Leon said:

    It is the single biggest government failure. Perhaps in modern British history. Keeping the borders open surely killed tens of thousands and took 5% off GDP

    We need to know exactly how much ‘fear of racism’ contributed to this and then the whole culture that perpetuates this toxic drivel needs to be extirpated
    As I asked on a previous thread, What exactly do you mean by "closing the borders"? We are a major travel hub - do you mean that UK citizens abroad shouldn't have been allowed to return home, people with close family abroad not allowed to visit (either way) even in end of life scenarios, business travel reasons cancelled, journalists and news organisations not allowed to travel, HGV drivers not able to ply their trade?

    This is not easy, practically, economically and on principle.

    The government has massively cut international travel throughout all of this. And when you look at the traffic light rules now they are pretty draconian aren't they? Even visiting a green list country means a PCR test before leaving the UK plus a test within 72 hours of return to the UK plus a further PCR test two days after return - plus compulsory mask-wearing on route. Amber means all that plus a 4th PCR test 8 days after return plus quarantine. Red means all that plus quarantine in a government prescribed hotel (at traveller's expense).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2021
    geoffw said:

    Surely China is doing best. But is it the lockdown or their vaccines?

    10,000s died at the start....they had the crematoriums working 24/7 in wuhan, just like we have seen in India.

    They have had other smaller outbreaks since. But we only get a byline of such and such a city of 8 million people has been closed off.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,475
    edited May 2021
    Carnyx said:

    FPT

    I remmeber a particularly interesting and illuminating discussion on PB about 2012-13 which came to an almost unanimous conclusion (quite unusual for that time and general topic of indyref) that true federalism was a non-runner in the UK because of precisely what you say, plus the political unacceptability of breaking up England a la Anglo-Saxon Heptarchy.

    This is one reason why Gordon Brown's repeated Interventions with promises of more federalism have not, er, had much effect.
    England doesn't need to be broken up within a Federal system, and the more it is broken up within that system, the more it dominates, as the 'more Englands' there are, the more they can out-vote the other home nations. Indeed, if England is broken up in a way that is commensurate with its population size, it totally swamps the other home nations, and defeats the entire object of federalisation. It becomes Westminster MPs mark 2.

    I've made this argument to you a few times, and you've never made a counter-argument, so I'm surprised that you persist in the nonsense that England would need to be broken up to make a federal system work.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,133

    England wicketkeeper Ben Foakes will miss the two Tests against New Zealand in June with a hamstring injury, while opener Haseeb Hameed and keeper Sam Billings have been added to the squad.

    Hameed looked like the new Boycott when he got his chance a few years ago. Could never understand what went wrong for him, as technically he looked sound (unlike every other opener England have tried since).

    I've got tickets for Edgbaston which I'm feeling rather smug about. Hope the match goes the distance though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    edited May 2021

    Now is definitely the time for EFTA membership.
    Not really, our deal has better flexibility that EFTA membership and we have completely escaped ECJ jurisdiction which EFTA membership would still have, though to a lesser degree than EEA membership.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Taz said:

    Two tests in the early nineties wasn’t it.
    He was still on Somerset’s books for years, just couldn’t get the runs to get back into the first team.
    Unlike some other sports, cricket may be very much upstairs and prone to the yips, so enjoy it whilst it’s going well whatever age you are.
    I wasn’t aware Habeeb in the sort of from to get him back in picture.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,973

    10,000s died at the start....they had the crematoriums working 24/7 in wuhan, just like we have seen in India.

    They have had other smaller outbreaks since.
    3 deaths per million.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    DavidL said:

    They really seem to have lost the place in recent times. An organisation that needs the UK government to behave even vaguely sensibly brings a whole new meaning to dysfunctional.
    It's absolutely weird. You'd have thought that, in the middle of a pandemic, they might have chosen to retaliate by banning Gruyère or vanity watches, not medical equipment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    Cicero said:

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-uk-norway-trade-deal-may-collapse-as-christian-democrats-block-pact-to-protect-farmers-from-british-beef-and-cheese/

    I think both Norway and Switzerland are going to have to join the EU and sooner rather than later. Meanwhile our mickey mouse trade deals with economies we can´t actually do much trade with do not make up for the total shambles of the collapse in EU/UK trade. Then in 5 years time, when we ask to effectively rejoin, we get locked out and the EFTA half way house is not available. That really is shooting yourself in the foot.
    What collapse in EU/UK trade? Aren't volumes back to relatively "normal" levels?
This discussion has been closed.