politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The re-shuffle continued:-

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

oxfordsimon said:

Fox appears to have been offered ministerial role at FCO - but appears to have turned it down...

Huzzah.

Perhaps offered Hugh Robertson's job as a Minister of State? If true (who knows), Can't blame him for turning it down - such an offer would border on the insulting. And I'm no fan of his.

I'm all in favour of insulting Liam Fox

JackW said:

No white smoke from the LibDems over their ministerial changes, if any, or are they waiting for the Conservative music to stop before they wind up the gramophone for their own tunes to play over the airwaves ?

Is there not a convention per se that discourages other parties announcing their reshuffle while others are doing theirs? – Clegg would be wise to wait until the blue ‘gramophone’ runs down before announcing his imho.

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

MikeK has asked me to post this message

A few of weeks back I went too far in an attack on JackW for which I apologise. I will try to keep further comments within civilised bounds.

Thank you MikeK

I accept your apology without reservation and look forward to your return to the broad church that is PB.

......................................................................

I think we should be mindful of the outstanding job that Mike, Robert and the MODERATORS undertake on our behalf and note that in the ten years of PB the site has enjoyed a free flow of robust and largely civilised discourse within the context of instant publishing, that in the internet world is quite frankly an absolute marvel.

Thank you for all your efforts.

Well said!

*Raise's a lunchtime tipple of tea to Mike and team*

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

I think - in the medium term - that Eurosceptics will be very disappointed with Mr Hammond.

Undoubtedly true, just as they were disappointed in turn with Cameron and Hague. They briefly turned to Boris before discovering he wasn't a Europhobe, and so on.

Of course there's a reason for this: the source of their disappointments is that they are blaming individuals for the constraints of reality.

The constraints of reality being that David Cameron is too europhile to ever put a eurosceptic in a position of influence.

So Philip Hammond, the man who would vote to leave the EU isn't a eurosceptic.

You learn something new everyday.

As I understand, Hammond is a "in with reform" position. And a Cameron loyalist. He'll keep out the way while Cameron decides EU policy, like Hague did.

Cameron loyalist ? Stop embarrassing yourself check out of his views on gay marriage.

This is what he says about the EU

"If the choice is between a European Union written exactly as it is today and not being a part of that then I have to say that I'm on the side of the argument that Michael Gove has put forward," said Mr Hammond in an interview on Radio 5live's Pienaar's politics.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22500121

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

oxfordsimon said:

Fox appears to have been offered ministerial role at FCO - but appears to have turned it down...

Huzzah.

Perhaps offered Hugh Robertson's job as a Minister of State? If true (who knows), Can't blame him for turning it down - such an offer would border on the insulting. And I'm no fan of his.

I'm all in favour of insulting Liam Fox

I have to confess I'm beginning to lose hope. Should I ring the No 10 switchboard and ask whether they've forgotten my number?

I think Dave needs you where you are right now. You're too valuable to be moved.

Out of curiosity (and you're under no obligation to answer) is Phil Hammond your MP? Or is it Mr Raab?

Smarmeron said:

@Socrates
This one is interesting
"Underpass - a tool to change the result of online polls"
I knew there was something wrong with the old TOTY vote!

The last TOTY vote was a masterpiece of democracy that I understand those bastions of free and fair elections in North Korea, Zimbabwe and Hackney have been studying most carefully for many years.

The fact that I was the triumphant winner of that vote by a landslide of one vote is of little relevance to my declaring the vote an object lesson in fundamental and complete electoral impartiality.

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

oxfordsimon said:

Fox appears to have been offered ministerial role at FCO - but appears to have turned it down...

Huzzah.

Perhaps offered Hugh Robertson's job as a Minister of State? If true (who knows), Can't blame him for turning it down - such an offer would border on the insulting. And I'm no fan of his.

I'm all in favour of insulting Liam Fox

I have to confess I'm beginning to lose hope. Should I ring the No 10 switchboard and ask whether they've forgotten my number?

I think Dave needs you where you are right now. You're too valuable to be moved.

Out of curiosity (and you're under no obligation to answer) is Phil Hammond your MP? Or is it Mr Raab?

Elmbridge covers all of Esher and Walton and some of Runnymede and Weybridge.

As a Hershamite, Dom Raab is my own MP - I'm watching out for him, but don't expect he'll get anything.

peter_from_putney said:

No news as yet as regards the UK's EU Commissioner appointment? - This now looks virtually certain to come from the Lords...... Maybe Michael Howard, Baroness Hogg .... anyone have other ideas?

Already announced - it's Lord Hill, Leader of the Lords

Smarmeron said:

@Socrates
This one is interesting
"Underpass - a tool to change the result of online polls"
I knew there was something wrong with the old TOTY vote!

Ah. That explains Obama's Nobel. Couple of sherries too many at the GCHQ Christmas do, and an unlikely wager is struck...

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Noting that Oliver Letwin is now one of the Great Officers of State as Lord Privy Seal but is he in the Cabinet or attending as previously ?

Run for the hills.

For unerring bad judgement, combined with complete unsuitability for office, no one comes close to Oliver Letwin.

Come come Sir.

Ollie has always struck me as an amiable fellow for the back room jobs. As Stan said "we all need an Ollie."

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

oxfordsimon said:

Fox appears to have been offered ministerial role at FCO - but appears to have turned it down...

Huzzah.

Perhaps offered Hugh Robertson's job as a Minister of State? If true (who knows), Can't blame him for turning it down - such an offer would border on the insulting. And I'm no fan of his.

I'm all in favour of insulting Liam Fox

I have to confess I'm beginning to lose hope. Should I ring the No 10 switchboard and ask whether they've forgotten my number?

I think Dave needs you where you are right now. You're too valuable to be moved.

Out of curiosity (and you're under no obligation to answer) is Phil Hammond your MP? Or is it Mr Raab?

Elmbridge covers all of Esher and Walton and some of Runnymede and Weybridge.

As a Hershamite, Dom Raab is my own MP - I'm watching out for him, but don't expect he'll get anything.

Thanks, I like Mr Raab too.

I was hoping Phil Hammond was your MP and you could provide us with some gossip

SimonStClare said:

JackW said:

No white smoke from the LibDems over their ministerial changes, if any, or are they waiting for the Conservative music to stop before they wind up the gramophone for their own tunes to play over the airwaves ?

Is there not a convention per se that discourages other parties announcing their reshuffle while others are doing theirs? – Clegg would be wise to wait until the blue ‘gramophone’ runs down before announcing his imho.

Normally yes in the context of single party government. However this Coalition government hasn't always adopted this position and has effectively operated as a joint enterprise where it has suited it.

I'm watching out for him, but don't expect he'll get anything.

Dom Raab is often to be seen traveling home on public transport. Gets off at Esher...

peter_from_putney said:

Oops, sorry guys, I missed that.

This will cheer you up

Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 3h

Lord Hill was 20/1 to be next EU Commissioner. No-one backed him. Ladbrokes owe PM a drink. #reshuffle

taffys said:

I'm watching out for him, but don't expect he'll get anything.

Dom Raab is often to be seen traveling home on public transport. Gets off at Esher...

He does indeed...he's a thoroughly good egg.

Ed Vaizey Minister of State at DCMS and BIS.

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

Oops, sorry guys, I missed that.

This will cheer you up

Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 3h

Lord Hill was 20/1 to be next EU Commissioner. No-one backed him. Ladbrokes owe PM a drink. #reshuffle

He's no slouch that Shadsy, even if he doesn't bother replying to my polite requests for a particular market.

It will be interesting to see how the polls react to this reshuffle. I'm hoping to land [soon] my 9/2 bet with PP, placed 12/9/13 that the Tories would lead during H2 2014 in terms of GE VI with YouGov.

That was an excellent bet

I see the blob are all over the media...no change....no change...no change...

Do we have a Minister For Fracking yet?

GIN1138 said:

Do we have a Minister For Fracking yet?

No, but now we have a Minister for Life Sciences....is that to encourage home cooking?

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

Oops, sorry guys, I missed that.

This will cheer you up

Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 3h

Lord Hill was 20/1 to be next EU Commissioner. No-one backed him. Ladbrokes owe PM a drink. #reshuffle

He's no slouch that Shadsy, even if he doesn't bother replying to my polite requests for a particular market.

It will be interesting to see how the polls react to this reshuffle. I'm hoping to land [soon] my 9/2 bet with PP, placed 12/9/13 that the Tories would lead during H2 2014 in terms of GE VI with YouGov.

That was an excellent bet

Hopefully so - but it should be remembered that there were at the time five possible alternatives:
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
Pre GE 2015
Post GE 2015

Glad to see Dr Fox isn't back ... another plus for the blue team reshuffle.

I see almost 40% of votes in the EU Parliament were cast against the appointment of Jean Claude Junker. There must have been several countries in which a majority of MEPs voted against him.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. StClare, not quite as good/bad as when Robinson (political editor of the BBC) apologised for not bothering to report the depths of the Blair-Brown feud a decade late.

Was he playing centre half in the semi final?

Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline)
15/07/2014 14:00
Brazilian man's birth certificate shows he turned 126 last week dailym.ai/W6Pjhp

The Gove sacking is a good move politically and from a policy perspective. I think it will help the Tories immensely and will probably be very good news for the country's schoolchildren (and their parents) too. We have examples of best practice staring us in the face:

http://stephentall.org/2014/06/23/why-are-london-schools-so-good-politicians-have-been-looking-in-the-wrong-place-for-the-answers/

Start in the primary schools and build from there. All the evidence points to significant improvements at primary level. Where things have gone wrong is continuing that into secondaries - except in London.

I am amazed at how well the mechanics of the reshuffle have gone. Very few leaks in advance, scope and size well hidden from us, and no real media spoilers in advance. Remarkable discipline for the Tory Party.

Before the recess is a sensible time to hold the reshuffle, giving the new job title holders time to gather a rudimentary understanding of the brief before the next session of parliament and the party conferences. As the only major reshuffle of the parliament it is right that it should be wider ranging, as after 4 years there are areas that need a shake up. I still think the lack of ministerial musical chairs is one of the better aspects of this administration, it gives ministers a chance to become competent and achieve and follow through changes.

A rare outbreak of Tory competence, but I have no idea if the changes are good, bad or indifferent. Only time will tell

SouthamObserver said:

The Gove sacking is a good move politically and from a policy perspective. I think it will help the Tories immensely and will probably be very good news for the country's schoolchildren (and their parents) too. We have examples of best practice staring us in the face:

http://stephentall.org/2014/06/23/why-are-london-schools-so-good-politicians-have-been-looking-in-the-wrong-place-for-the-answers/

Start in the primary schools and build from there. All the evidence points to significant improvements at primary level. Where things have gone wrong is continuing that into secondaries - except in London.

Yes Gove has done a good job, bringing back meaningful exams.. His job was well done given the opposition he faced.

Cyclefree said:

Do we need all these Ministers? What the hell do they all do?

Give other MPs hope of getting a government job one day even if they will never be at the top table, and so keep at least some of them quiescent.

Twitterati in jubilation at Michael Gove's downfall.

#GoveGone

*Betting related post*

It looks like Liverpool want to sign Wilfred Bony, he's currently 25/1 to be Premier League top goal scorer.

If he signs for Liverpool, and with respect to Swansea, he's going to have more chances to score.

So his odds should tumble a fair bit from 25/1

This has the hallmarks of a good trading bet.

But as Peter from Putney says, DYOR.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Edit: Rumours also abound that Brendan wants to sign Lukakau, so the same principles apply there, and he's 20/1

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The Gove sacking is a good move politically and from a policy perspective. I think it will help the Tories immensely and will probably be very good news for the country's schoolchildren (and their parents) too. We have examples of best practice staring us in the face:

http://stephentall.org/2014/06/23/why-are-london-schools-so-good-politicians-have-been-looking-in-the-wrong-place-for-the-answers/

Start in the primary schools and build from there. All the evidence points to significant improvements at primary level. Where things have gone wrong is continuing that into secondaries - except in London.

Yes Gove has done a good job, bringing back meaningful exams.. His job was well done given the opposition he faced.

In the end a reforming education secretary needs to have teachers on his/her side - especially when their working conditions are being changed, mainly for the worst. I have never had any doubts about Gove's genuine desire to reform, but I am pretty certain he does not have the skills necessary to ensure that what he wants to happen actually comes to pass; or the ideological pragmatism to see beyond what he instinctively thinks *should* work and to be open to embracing ideas that may not immediately fit in with his beliefs system. He also alienates a lot of voters. Thus, the Tories and the country may reap a significant dividend from his departure.

The problem with this, SO, is that the teaching unions are overtly political. If an education secretary wearing a red rosette rather than a blue one had implemented identical reforms they would have passed without a whimper from them. Gove's reforms are uncontroversial, tougher exams and more concentration on concepts and understanding. Taking teachers along with that should not be such a difficult prospect and had the SoS been wearing a red rosette it would not have been.

Also congratulations on reaching a huge milestone with your marriage!

TheScreamingEagles said:

*Betting related post*

It looks like Liverpool want to sign Wilfred Bony, he's currently 25/1 to be Premier League top goal scorer.

If he signs for Liverpool, and with respect to Swansea, he's going to have more chances to score.

So his odds should tumble a fair bit from 25/1

This has the hallmarks of a good trading bet.

But as Peter from Putney says, DYOR.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Edit: Rumours also abound that Brendan wants to sign Lukakau, so the same principles apply there, and he's 20/1

Head to Betfair - longer odds there (And easier to trade if the signings happen...)

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The Gove sacking is a good move politically and from a policy perspective. I think it will help the Tories immensely and will probably be very good news for the country's schoolchildren (and their parents) too. We have examples of best practice staring us in the face:

http://stephentall.org/2014/06/23/why-are-london-schools-so-good-politicians-have-been-looking-in-the-wrong-place-for-the-answers/

Start in the primary schools and build from there. All the evidence points to significant improvements at primary level. Where things have gone wrong is continuing that into secondaries - except in London.

Yes Gove has done a good job, bringing back meaningful exams.. His job was well done given the opposition he faced.

In the end a reforming education secretary needs to have teachers on his/her side - especially when their working conditions are being changed, mainly for the worst. I have never had any doubts about Gove's genuine desire to reform, but I am pretty certain he does not have the skills necessary to ensure that what he wants to happen actually comes to pass; or the ideological pragmatism to see beyond what he instinctively thinks *should* work and to be open to embracing ideas that may not immediately fit in with his beliefs system. He also alienates a lot of voters. Thus, the Tories and the country may reap a significant dividend from his departure.

The problem with this, SO, is that the teaching unions are overtly political. If an education secretary wearing a red rosette rather than a blue one had implemented identical reforms they would have passed without a whimper from them. Gove's reforms are uncontroversial, tougher exams and more concentration on concepts and understanding. Taking teachers along with that should not be such a difficult prospect and had the SoS been wearing a red rosette it would not have been.

Also congratulations on reaching a huge milestone with your marriage!

The teaching unions were very critical of Labour too and consistently called on their members to strike. They were largely ignored. What Gove managed to do that previous education secretaries failed to do was to alienate ordinary teachers - the vast majority of whom would be natural supporters of reforms that promised them more time to prepare lessons, more freedom to teach in the way they see fit, less admin, a greater ability to get rid of bad teachers and so on. And this after so many ordinary teachers had actually supported the Tories at the last GE.

TheScreamingEagles said:

*Betting related post*

It looks like Liverpool want to sign Wilfred Bony, he's currently 25/1 to be Premier League top goal scorer.

If he signs for Liverpool, and with respect to Swansea, he's going to have more chances to score.

So his odds should tumble a fair bit from 25/1

This has the hallmarks of a good trading bet.

But as Peter from Putney says, DYOR.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Edit: Rumours also abound that Brendan wants to sign Lukakau, so the same principles apply there, and he's 20/1

Whilst not wanting to disagree with you on a football bet - couldn't you argue that at Liverpool he will be one of many, rather the out and out key striker, and so whilst there are likely to be more goals, they will also be shared around more? (The extreme of this is that you are much less likely to be Top-Goalscorer warming the winning teams bench than the relegation teams key man - see Demba Ba Newcastle to Chelsea)

A real shame that Dominic Grieve has gone and that incompetent fool Grayling is still in post. Not at all sure that Cameron really understands what the rule of law means nor why it is essential to have really heavy weight lawyers as advisors to the government, especially if they tell you what you don't want to hear.

Labour were weakened by having Goldsmith as their AG; he was weak and gave poor advice and he damaged his own professional standing.

Correct.

Also a clear lurch yet further to the Right in an attempt to keep his fruitloop backbenchers appeased.

Laughably weak.

TheScreamingEagles said:

*Betting related post*

It looks like Liverpool want to sign Wilfred Bony, he's currently 25/1 to be Premier League top goal scorer.

If he signs for Liverpool, and with respect to Swansea, he's going to have more chances to score.

So his odds should tumble a fair bit from 25/1

This has the hallmarks of a good trading bet.

But as Peter from Putney says, DYOR.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Edit: Rumours also abound that Brendan wants to sign Lukakau, so the same principles apply there, and he's 20/1

Bony is different class in my opinion, fantastic goals per game ratio, I'd love Arsenal to get him.

Not sure about the trading bet part though... His current odds probably have a move priced in.

I like the look of Swansea to be relegated at 11/2 myself... New manager w no experience plus all the best players want out... Never a good combo

A real shame that Dominic Grieve has gone and that incompetent fool Grayling is still in post.

Big defeat in the courts for Grayling today on attempt to apply residency test to legal aid eligibility...

http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jul/15/legal-aid-high-court-residence-test-discrimination-grayling

@MikeK – good to see you back posting again ‘old timer’ ; )

MikeK said:

Good afternoon folks. I have been re-admitted into the PB arena and better yet my iMac is fixed and Apple graciously declined payment.

What a momentous 24 hours leaving Cammo weaker than ever as well as making new enemies.

My twitter to Dan Hannan is making the rounds over 20 retweets so far:

Silver Shoes and 14 others retweeted you 6h: @DanHannanMEP Cameron is a big bluffer, he will never fight to leave the EU in any referendum. You know it; the Tories know it; all know it

Welcome back Mike; I am of the let them be damned by their own words school of PB contributor but I understand OGH's desire to keep a sensible ship so I'm glad you're back.

Your 20x retweeted tweet is a classic example of a "straw man" argument. Cam said he would fight for a better deal for the UK in europe and would hold a referendum to allow us to decide if we agreed with whatever outcome he achieved. He never said he would "fight to leave the EU" and I believe he is, broadly, a fan of the UK remaining a member.

He was also, of course, right about what too many tweets make.

dodrade said:

And what does IDS have over Cameron that he survives yet again when even Gove got demoted?

It's a toxification issue.

Looking all over ICM website - are their tables up yet ?

John McTernan views life through his own hate filled approach to politics. Completely wrong. No wonder his advice helped the SNP win in Scotland and helped the Liberals win in Australia.

dodrade said:

What went wrong with Esther McVey? Of all the female MP's briefed for promotion she was the most heavily tipped , the Daily Mail even put her on the front page today in expectation of a cabinet post, yet came away almost empty handed. Doesn't Cameron like her?

And what does IDS have over Cameron that he survives yet again when even Gove got demoted?

Was critical of Miller for not resigning. And she appears on the front page of the Daily Mail for reasons more to do with her figure than her promotion.

This is a compliment and a half:

"Shami Chakrabarti, director of Liberty, says "Dominic Grieve QC is one of the finest attorneys general of modern times who always put the law first and populist politics second. The coalition government has lost one of its sharpest minds, but the country may have gained a freer and even more outspoken advocate for human rights."

The moves on the Law Officers are concerning. Are the tories really going to commit themselves to withdrawing from the ECHR? The Court can be seriously annoying but that would be an extraordinary step for a Western government supposedly committed to the extension of human rights to take.

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

*Betting related post*

It looks like Liverpool want to sign Wilfred Bony, he's currently 25/1 to be Premier League top goal scorer.

If he signs for Liverpool, and with respect to Swansea, he's going to have more chances to score.

So his odds should tumble a fair bit from 25/1

This has the hallmarks of a good trading bet.

But as Peter from Putney says, DYOR.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Edit: Rumours also abound that Brendan wants to sign Lukakau, so the same principles apply there, and he's 20/1

Bony is different class in my opinion, fantastic goals per game ratio, I'd love Arsenal to get him.

Not sure about the trading bet part though... His current odds probably have a move priced in.

I like the look of Swansea to be relegated at 11/2 myself... New manager w no experience plus all the best players want out... Never a good combo

Fernando Torres can be backed at 80 with Betfair (aka 75/1 net), how are the mighty fallen. Although in fairness he probably won't be playing in the Premier League next season.

By my ratings he is the worst striker in the premiership in terms of value to team!