With everything going so well for BoJo could he be tempted to go for an early election? – politicalb

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
9m
Tuesday’s Daily MAIL: “Now Vaccine Refuseniks Threaten Freedom” #TomorrowsPapersToday


Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers warn Johnson not to put back 21st June unlocking in order to protect anti-vaxxers.

Now we need Starmer to say the same and put Labour behind that otherwise the government will just use opposition votes to keep us locked down to protect the c***s who chose not to have the vaccine.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think people just wont do it. If there is another lockdown because of anti-vaxxers there will be massive rule breaking. Absolutely massive. No one will give two fucks about the rules.

But the pubs, restaurants, bars and other hospitality will bleed to death with a thousand cuts under that scenario. The only way back for these businesses is to axe social distancing on June 21st. We have got no way around that. I want these businesses to thrive again. I have no issues breaking the rules today if necessary, I went to a house party with way more than the number of people allowed under the April rules.

We have to make the old normal come back for the sake of pubs, bars, restaurants, clubs and other hospitality businesses. Rule breaking doesn't help them.

There is no way that we can make a dent in the hospital waiting list, or even attenuate it's growth if we have to maintain social distancing etc. It is a major drag on productivity. It is like wading in treacle trying to get anything done. Exhausting and unproductive.

justin124 said:

isam said:

Cons on the slide!

Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher

Redfield & Wilton

Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):

Conservative 42% (-3)
Labour 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 5% (+1)

Changes +/- 10 May

Lowest Lab % since May 2020

It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.

dixiedean said:

Bloody Hell. Just seen Taiwan has recorded 91% of its total cases in the past 4 days!

Scott_xP said:

Tuesday’s FINANCIAL TIMES: “Cabinet split by ‘ferocious’ fight over Australia zero-tariff demand” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1394387990202523650/photo/1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.

Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.

But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!

rcs1000 said:

Scott_xP said:

Tuesday’s FINANCIAL TIMES: “Cabinet split by ‘ferocious’ fight over Australia zero-tariff demand” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1394387990202523650/photo/1

UK officials said Australian and New Zealand negotiators were holding firm on demands for full tariff liberalisation, which Truss was under pressure to grant in order to meet the G7 deadline, perhaps phased in over a 10-year period.

But such a deal risks inflaming arguments over Scottish and Welsh independence because the likely impact of zero-tariff imports of Australian lamb and beef will land hardest in rural areas such as Scottish and Welsh hill farms.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FWIW I'm coming round to the idea of a one world government with a single legal system.

Common Law… you know it makes sense!

kinabalu said:

justin124 said:

isam said:

Cons on the slide!

Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher

Redfield & Wilton

Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):

Conservative 42% (-3)
Labour 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 5% (+1)

Changes +/- 10 May

Lowest Lab % since May 2020

It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.

That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.

SandyRentool said:

Gallowgate said:

SandyRentool said:

LostPassword said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.

May or June 2023 would be earlier than those precedents. October 2023 would be more reasonable - and also the earliest realistic date to rely on boundary changes

Yes I think late Summer or Autumn 2023 would make sense too, especially as it would be on new boundaries. Only loses just over a year from the last possible date and loses less than a year from the expected 2024 date.

For the betting markets late Summer or Autumn 2023 would count as an early election, but it would be historically quite normal being roughly four years in.

The new boundaries will not be implemented before July 2023 - probably too late for a Summer election.

Summer is June to August, or 21 June to 21 September depending upon how you measure it.

So if the new boundaries come in July then a late Summer election would be entirely possible.

There are more summers than that. The Irish definition starts summer at the beginning of May (or at half-past two on the second Tuesday in June, lasting for three hours, if you're being unkind). Or you can use a long summer definition, May-September.

Professor Lamb did define a "High Summer" season, from 18th June - 9th September, based on weather circulation patterns in the first half of the 20th century, but please don't use a definition of summer that starts on the summer solstice. It's nonsensical. If you want to have a summer season defined by measurements of the length of the day, then the summer solstice needs to be in the middle of the summer season, and so summer would start on the cross-quarter day of 6th May.

The "summer starts on Midsummer's Day" brigade should be taken out and shot.

Summer starts when you start drinking in the airport at 9am before boarding your Ryanair flight to Benidorm. Everyone knows that.

9am? Slacker!

Foxy said:

CatMan said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/05/17/stereotypical-image-red-wall-residents-accurate?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=red_wall_residents

Massive difference on immigration

Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud

Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:

"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."

*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.

Something like +7 compared to +24 I think

So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.

I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.

I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.

The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.

Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.

My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.

Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.

Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.

Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.

And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?

Yes, very frequently people want to self declare as working class, as that is how they see themselves. It is quite common with University academics to do so for example, and in many liberal professions.

The one thing I really hate about England is the idea that Class isn't linked to how much money you have *now*, but how much money you had growing up. Frank Skinner for example is considered to be Working Class, despite being a sodding Multi-Millionare

Quite so, though it can pass down a further tier fairly easily. For example, an academic friend sees herself as working class, despite her parents being teachers, because her grandparents were miners.

kinabalu said:

justin124 said:

isam said:

Cons on the slide!

Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher

Redfield & Wilton

Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):

Conservative 42% (-3)
Labour 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 5% (+1)

Changes +/- 10 May

Lowest Lab % since May 2020

It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.

That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.

rottenborough said:

dixiedean said:

Bloody Hell. Just seen Taiwan has recorded 91% of its total cases in the past 4 days!

I think I read there has been an outbreak amongst airport staff and those running quarantine centres?

MarqueeMark said:

Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Seattle Times ($) - Report: Microsoft investigated Gates before he left board

Board members at Microsoft Corp. made a decision in 2020 that it wasn’t appropriate for its co-founder Bill Gates to continue sitting on its board as they investigated the billionaire’s prior romantic relationship with a female Microsoft employee that was deemed inappropriate, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Citing unnamed sources, The Journal reported online Sunday that board members looking into the matter hired a law firm in late 2019 to conduct an investigation after a Microsoft engineer alleged in a letter that she had a sexual relationship with Gates over several years.

The Journal reported that Gates resigned before the board’s investigation was finished, citing another person familiar with the matter.

An unnamed spokeswoman for Gates acknowledged to The Journal that there was an affair almost 20 years ago, and that it ended “amicably.” The spokesperson told The Journal that “his decision to transition off the board was in no way related to this matter.””

When he left Microsoft’s board last year, Gates said he was stepping down to focus on philanthropy.

In an email sent to The Associated Press late Sunday, Microsoft said that it “received a concern in the latter half of 2019 that Bill Gates sought to initiate an intimate relationship with a company employee in the year 2000. A committee of the Board reviewed the concern, aided by an outside law firm, to conduct a thorough investigation. Throughout the investigation, Microsoft provided extensive support to the employee who raised the concern.”

Comment - Have always had a lot of respect for Bill the Billionaire's father, who was a highly successful Seattle attorney & moderate, country-club Republican (a "Dan Evans Republican" as we say in WA) who led unsuccessful effort to pass a statewide initiative establishing an upper-income state income tax.

Never had much respect for Bill Gates as a person. Always thought he was more lucky than visionary and more into ego gratification than philanthropy. All of which I thought & said (if not here) long BEFORE Melinda lowered the boom on him.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TimT said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.

Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.

But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!

Not really started in the DC area yet. They tend to go for oak trees, although I am told saplings of any type can be susceptible to their unwanted attentions.

The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.

According to map with link below, Brood X has major concentrations centered on Indiana and east-central Ohio, and also in Maryland, Delaware and large swath of central PA.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22362042/cicada-brood-x-map-2021

TimT said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Seattle Times ($) - Report: Microsoft investigated Gates before he left board

Board members at Microsoft Corp. made a decision in 2020 that it wasn’t appropriate for its co-founder Bill Gates to continue sitting on its board as they investigated the billionaire’s prior romantic relationship with a female Microsoft employee that was deemed inappropriate, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Citing unnamed sources, The Journal reported online Sunday that board members looking into the matter hired a law firm in late 2019 to conduct an investigation after a Microsoft engineer alleged in a letter that she had a sexual relationship with Gates over several years.

The Journal reported that Gates resigned before the board’s investigation was finished, citing another person familiar with the matter.

An unnamed spokeswoman for Gates acknowledged to The Journal that there was an affair almost 20 years ago, and that it ended “amicably.” The spokesperson told The Journal that “his decision to transition off the board was in no way related to this matter.””

When he left Microsoft’s board last year, Gates said he was stepping down to focus on philanthropy.

In an email sent to The Associated Press late Sunday, Microsoft said that it “received a concern in the latter half of 2019 that Bill Gates sought to initiate an intimate relationship with a company employee in the year 2000. A committee of the Board reviewed the concern, aided by an outside law firm, to conduct a thorough investigation. Throughout the investigation, Microsoft provided extensive support to the employee who raised the concern.”

Comment - Have always had a lot of respect for Bill the Billionaire's father, who was a highly successful Seattle attorney & moderate, country-club Republican (a "Dan Evans Republican" as we say in WA) who led unsuccessful effort to pass a statewide initiative establishing an upper-income state income tax.

Never had much respect for Bill Gates as a person. Always thought he was more lucky than visionary and more into ego gratification than philanthropy. All of which I thought & said (if not here) long BEFORE Melinda lowered the boom on him.

It is interesting that the Gates Foundation is responsible for crashing the cichlid populations in the African Great Lakes through their massive distribution of mosquito nets which locals have turned into fishing nets.

TimT said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TimT said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.

Was raised in West Virginia and spent lots of quality time there & in the Midwest. The cicadas are a strange if not wonderful phenomena, and obviously can be a problem for farmers and gardners.

But NOT quite like those movies where the army ants march across the jungle gobbling up whole plantations, villages, towns & cities in their wake. Mostly just a lot of weird-looking bugs mostly dead. IIRC a real feast for birds & other critters who like nice grass-feed insects!

Not really started in the DC area yet. They tend to go for oak trees, although I am told saplings of any type can be susceptible to their unwanted attentions.

The usual sign that a tree has these bugs is the foliage from one or more major limbs drying up brown against the deep green.

According to map with link below, Brood X has major concentrations centered on Indiana and east-central Ohio, and also in Maryland, Delaware and large swath of central PA.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22362042/cicada-brood-x-map-2021

Yep, we're expecting them, they just haven't decided to come out in force yet. As you know, it's impossible to miss them once they do - the noise can be deafening. Not to mention the crunch underfoot.

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

Interesting polling from Yougov in "Red Wall" seats. Not much difference to the rest of us it seems, and quite "Woke" on many issues. Interesting too that there still is a national plurality that Brexit was the wrong decision.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/05/17/stereotypical-image-red-wall-residents-accurate?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=red_wall_residents

Massive difference on immigration

Same as most other areas though, they think Sir Keir’s a dud

Yes, not as pro-immigration as the country as a whole*, but still a plurality in favour:

"We did find a significant gap between residents of the Red Wall and Britain as a whole on the topic of immigration. Here, Red Wall residents are fairly split on their assessments, with a slight lean toward more positive views. While 40% agree that immigration has “generally been good for the country”, 33% believe that it has on the whole been a bad thing."

*which obviously means that other parts are more strongly pro-immigration than average.

Something like +7 compared to +24 I think

So an overall positive view of immigration, wouldn't you agree?. Presumably parts of the country are significantly more pro than +24 too.

I find it quite a positive poll. The "Red Wall" is not very different to the rest of the country, and quite open to "Woke" and other views, has a more positive view of the Labour Party than is generally made out, thinks Starmer is heading in the right direction, albeit not taken to him personally. The country is not as polarised as it is made out to be, at least on a macro-scale. Indeed one of the conclusions that I would draw is the need to champion inclusiveness and diversity as a core British value.

I must have a fossick through the data tables, as I suspect that much of the modest difference found between the Red Wall and UK as a whole is due to the age structure of the demographics of the seats rather than anything more fundamental.

The big divider is age not class or colour or colour of wall. Hardly surprising when we have the richest cohort of pensioners ever, and the first generation of workers who will do less well than their parents since the big wars.

Woke is a distraction and reflection of age.

My parents are both in their mid 70s, both still work part time. When they were full time they never earnt big money - local govt Admin/Woolworths & a labourer/sports coach. 15% interest rates when they were skint & paying a mortgage. 0.1% now they’ve paid the house off & have decent savings. So they’re now quite rich, through having modest tastes and living within their means. But they’re still working class, ex council house kids who never earnt more than 40k pa - lefties are trying to say they’re wrongly defined as working class in polls though.

Yes but their economic interests are essentially aligned with a millionaire banker now - inflate assets and squeeze the workers through rents and taxes.

Those with assets are voting Tory, those without are split roughly 50-50.

Well they aren’t voting Tory, but I don’t see why being sensible and saving their whole life transformed them from being working class to something else. Class isn’t about bank balance - if Prince Harry goes skint and works in McDonalds, he won’t be working class.

And what about interest rates pensioners paid/what they receive now? How’s that them being so lucky?

I'm not really that interested in what class people are as it means different things to different people. My point is the political landscape can at least as easily be defined by age and wealth (assets not income), as class, Brexit or historic constituency voting.

That this cohort of pensioners is (on average) far richer than those who go before them is surely not in doubt? Again whether that is down to "luck" or "hard work" does not matter much, it is in their economic interests to protect their wealth and that impacts the political sphere.

Yeah I agree, but most pensioners are protecting their wealth for their kids and grandkids, not themselves. You could just as easily point out that when they were 20 somethings, they had to stay living with their parents until they got married, save up and didn’t have wealthy grandparents to leave them big inheritances

While that's true, the average age of buying the first home was in the mid-20s not that long ago.

It's now 34.

It's hard to peg that as progress.

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

DougSeal said:

MaxPB said:

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon and Doug are spot on: that John Burn-Murdoch thread on Twitter is excellent. I wonder if we could see positive tests nationwide start falling again this week? We were within an ace of it today…

I would not be at all surprised.
The week-on-week specimen numbers look to be dropping again (even taking data lag into account).
I know we need to bear motivated reasoning in account, but it does look to me like an isolated spike in the national figures that’s already subsiding back into the floor.

Hmmm....

Never been able to make head nor tail of that graph.

Look at the peak and thickness of the different colour bands. I think @Andy_Cooke is right, there does look to have been a smallish peak in cases over the last two weeks, but no sign yet that it's resulting in higher hospitalisations other than those few vaccine refusers in Bolton.

What I think is interesting, is that we get that sharp peak on the 10th - which only reverses the fall of a couple of weeks, look at the 26th.

But just after that peak on 10th, the "sub-peak" (11th-12th) is lower. Yes, we are in a weekend and data to fill in, but it hints at a resumption of the fall. We shall see in a day or so.

We'll have to wait and see if the Indian variant seed cases in the rest of the country cause any additional transmission. I think some parts of London will be particularly susceptible, as Stodge has pointed out take up of vaccines in Newham is pretty poor. We could see some small to medium rise in cases over the next two weeks before it starts falling again as acquired immunity pushes those areas towards herd immunity.

I agree but it strikes me that this variant was seeded here over a month ago now. At what point do we file this one with the Brazilian and Spanish variants as NBD?

Yes, I think that's where it's heading. A marginal increase in transmission that looks worse in India and Indian/Pakistani areas of the UK because there's no such thing as personal space or social distancing in those places.

The odd one is why Bolton seems so badly effected but we're not really seeing it in Wembley, Ealing or Harrow. There's definitely something that needs investigating within that difference.

Luck.

It's why India and Eastern Europe were hardly affected first time around.

Fairliered said:

MarqueeMark said:

Brood X cicadas have emerged after 17 years underground - as many as 1.5 million of the insects have come out of the ground per acre of land, meaning that tens of billions in total have emerged, from Michigan to West Virginia.

Have they just found out that Trump was defeated?

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Tuesday’s FINANCIAL TIMES: “Cabinet split by ‘ferocious’ fight over Australia zero-tariff demand” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1394387990202523650/photo/1

What is there to fight with?

Of course there should be a zero-tariff agreement.

So you wish to see our hill farmers and the landscape they maintain decimated...

alex_ said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
9m
Tuesday’s Daily MAIL: “Now Vaccine Refuseniks Threaten Freedom” #TomorrowsPapersToday


Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers warn Johnson not to put back 21st June unlocking in order to protect anti-vaxxers.

Now we need Starmer to say the same and put Labour behind that otherwise the government will just use opposition votes to keep us locked down to protect the c***s who chose not to have the vaccine.

If you won't open up because of vaccine refuseniks, how do you ever open up?

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:

Devon +1 seat +1 Con
Somerset +1 seat +1 Con
Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab
Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con
Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con
Oxon +1 seat +1 Con
Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved)
W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con
Kent +1 seat +1 Con
Surrey +1 seat +1 Con
Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con
Cambs +1 seat +1 Con
Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con
Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham)
Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab
Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con
Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con
Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat)
Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con
Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab
Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat)
Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat)
Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear)
Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife)
Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)

Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2

I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat

London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Just to give a quick summary of the overall likely boundary changes based on 2019 votes:

Devon +1 seat +1 Con
Somerset +1 seat +1 Con
Bristol/Gloucs/S Gloucs +1 seat +1 Lab
Isle of Wight +1 seat +1 Con
Berks/Hants+1 seat +1 Con
Oxon +1 seat +1 Con
Bucks +1 seat +1 Con (although Lab's position in Wycombe/MK may be approved)
W and E Sussex +1 seat +1 Con
Kent +1 seat +1 Con
Surrey +1 seat +1 Con
Beds+Herts +1 seat +1 Con
Cambs +1 seat +1 Con
Suffolk + Norfolk +1 seat +1 Con
Lambeth +Southwark +1 seat +1 Lab (no longer need to be paired but Southwark will need a ward from Lewisham)
Tower Hamlets+Newham +1 seat +1 Lab
Central London - Lab should be able to flip one here +1 Lab, -1 Con
Lincs and Rutland +1 seat +1 Con
Walsall and Wolves -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat)
Dudley and Staffs -1 seat - 1 Con
Wirral -1 seat - 1 Lab
Cumbria+Lancs -1 seat - 1 LD (Cumbria is only entitled to 5.3 seats meaning a cross-border seat with lancs and the end of Farron's seat)
Durham -1 seat -1 Con (I'm guessing Con but could be Lab who lose the seat)
Northumberland and Newcastle - 1 seat -1 Con (Blyth Valley is most likely to disappear)
Scotland -2 seats -2 LD (Glasgow loses 1 seat and Highland/Abs loses the other but the SNP should eb able toflip both Caithness and NE Fife)
Wales -8 seats -3 Con -3 Lab -2 Plaid (Lab loses 4 in the South but they should be able to flip Bridgend. I would expect Plaid to lose 2 in Dyfed Powys and the NW due to their vote being spread thinly and Con to lose 2 in the NE)

Total - Con+5, Lab 0, LD -3, Plaid -2

I have mainly featured areas that will change but within counties that keep the same number of seats there will be changes as well e.g. the Northampton seats have to expand into the current South Northants seat

London will see huge change due to new groupings of the boroughs

Neat list.
I think Wansbeck will be the one to go though. Although the likely loss of Cramlington flips it to Labour anyways, meaning -1 Con.
As for Durham. It will be South Tyneside and Teesside and Durham. Sedgefield looks favourite for the chop.

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

I think a major problem with the whole BAME idea is the spectacular success of both Indian and Chinese immigrants in this country. Both earn above the national average, have higher levels of professional qualifications etc. Both achieve this because they have strong and very positive cultural values that admire hard work, education and success. Both seem to me to fit a lot more comfortably with the Tories than the victimhood mindset of so many in the Labour party as the current HS and Chancellor indicate.

Groups that do not have those cultural advantages, including many poor white kids, really struggle and our education system does a pretty crap job of helping them out or allowing them to reach their potential. This is bad for all of us but the reluctance to accept the root of the problem really doesn't help.

The thing that boggles my mind is class sizes of 30 plus in state schools.

How on earth can teachers work with pupils who need help on an individual basis?

I was taught in class sizes of around a dozen.

Abolish the department for education and use the money to give vouchers for schools to the parents, the lower the parent/carer tax bracket the more vouchers they.

An entirely privatised school system might just allow the kids who really need help to break the cycle.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Tuesday’s FINANCIAL TIMES: “Cabinet split by ‘ferocious’ fight over Australia zero-tariff demand” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1394387990202523650/photo/1

What is there to fight with?

Of course there should be a zero-tariff agreement.

So you wish to see our hill farmers and the landscape they maintain decimated...

isam said:

kinabalu said:

justin124 said:

isam said:

Cons on the slide!

Important to note this is lower than their GE19 score & Labour’s is higher

Redfield & Wilton

Westminster Voting Intention (17 May):

Conservative 42% (-3)
Labour 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 5% (+1)

Changes +/- 10 May

Lowest Lab % since May 2020

It actually matches Labour's 2019 GB vote share - 33%.

That's a solid platform at a time when things are rock bottom. Make no mistake - Labour are slap bang in the running for the next GE. People giving it to the Tories are getting carried away. All the old rules are useless, including the one that says Oppositions should have a poll lead mid parliament if they are to have a chance.

I’ll bet you an even grand Tories win a majority at the next GE