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Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party – politicalbetting.com
Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party – politicalbetting.com
Almost unnoticed last weekend amid the spectacular Tory win in Hartlepool, the constitution-shaking SNP-led victory in Scotland or the dismal outcome for Labour – compounded by a botched reshuffle – another party did very well: the Greens.
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You are clearly correct with respect to Green gains so far in the merry month of May 2021, and potential near-term impacts if this trend continues. But you don't spend too much time discussing the source of the new Green votes, except to cite "the unusual weaknesses in both Labour and the Lib Dems"
Which is true enough, but thought it was interesting that, in Wales at least, some former UKIPers apparently voted Green. I'm guess this was largely tactical?
Which leads me to wonder, might some Conservatives actually go Green in this and perhaps future by-elections & locals before the next general election? As either a way of registering displeasure with whatever aspect of government policy (or folly) that is displeasing them?
AND could UK voters in these contests - and beyond - be influenced by the rise of the Green in Germany, led by moderates who have proven themselves capable, effective and popular at the state level, and now with a new, attractive young woman (remember NZ) at the helm, who is currently leading in the polls? And who looks (now) highly likely to help put her party and herself into the next federal government, quite possibly as the next Frau Bundeskanzlerin.
Here in UK Greens can attract support from anyone across the spectrum on basis of caring for global warming, polluted seas, even Tories, because the loopy manifesto just isn’t looked at.
My Wife, Mrs BigRich, normally votes green, but at the 2019 Euro Elections voted The Brexit Party, and I think possibly Con in 2019 GE, just to 'get Brexit done' May be an outlier but Not all green votes are from Libdem/Labour.
In other new, and good news on the Vaccine rollout, it seems for the Phizer Vaccine at least, the dictions to delay second Jab till 12 weeks after the first, sometimes called 'First Jabs First' leaves the person with a significantly better better protection, in the form of more Antibody's.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/14/delay-in-giving-second-jabs-of-pfizer-vaccine-improves-immunity
At worst shills for the Republicans; a look that Jill Stein did NOTHING to help in 2016. In fact, a few cases before than in WA State of Greens popping up to run for legislature who were nothing but stalking horses for the GOP.
There were some genuine Greens who ran for legislature up in Bellingham north of Seattle close to the Canadian border. But they never made it past our Top Two Primary, which is essentially death to all third parties because it virtually eliminates their chance of making to the general election ballot. (Under the previous systems, blanket primary and party primary, others could qualify for general if they got 1% of the primary vote which was not to hard, though none ever got elected in my time).
One big reason for the futility of the Green Party in the US, is the fact that the Democratic Party contains most committed enviros, and they have a lot of clout, more so I think than enviros in the Labour Party.
"Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...
""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.
"The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.
"While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."
https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013
Ruskies warn of impending World War 3 ..by twisting 4-year-old story from the Daily Star
When you think geo-politics, you think Daily Star, right?
Well, it turns out you're on the same wavelength as Russian hardman Vladimir Putin.
Full story: page 9
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57124546
This year, judging from very recent events, it will be clear to base Green voters that, as far as by-elections and locals go, voting for the Green candidate is NOT a lost cause. Rather, it represents the hope of, if not an absolute breakthrough, then certain a rising tide.
'Biggest data grab' in NHS history stuffs GP records in a central store for 'research' – and the time to opt out is now
The NHS is preparing for the "biggest data grab" in the history of the service, giving patients little information or warning about the planned transfer of medical records from GP surgeries in England to a central store for research purposes – and with no prospect of the data being deleted.
https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/13/nhs_data_grab/
Patients have until 23 June to opt out.
Despite the uplifting tale from the official US counter-cyber warfare unit, all the harm was done and it is cold comfort that the bad guys don't get to spend the ransom.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html
It does make me wonder how much the dark web isn't largely a tool of state players, allowing them to facilitate underhand activity whilst keeping track of the players they really need to worry about. People think it is safe for nefarious activity and indeed it is largely permitted to quietly proceed. Until it is time to have a sweep of say, several thousand paedos. And a bunch more who aren't exposed - but instead, quietly blackmailed into being "assets".
The LDs must be seriously concerned at the Greens parking their tanks on the lawn..... My money is on a Cons hold if both LDs and Greens contest (and even if no Green candidate I agree LDs face a big uphill but...BJ faces some tricky questions over holidays, No 10 decorations and Cameron's appearance wont have helped the cause...
Also, my very best thanks to David who has given this site sterling service every Saturday for a very long time - his pieces have always been must-reads and we've been very lucky to have him.
Thank you, Sir.
Ireland's health service operator shut down all its IT systems on Friday to protect them from a "significant" ransomware attack, crippling diagnostic services, disrupting COVID-19 testing and forcing hospitals to cancel many appointments.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/irish-health-service-hit-by-ransomware-attack-vaccine-rollout-unaffected-2021-05-14/
The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.
You must push the point where you are stilted, repressed and sensible.
But stop or at least start slowing down when you become "tired and emotional". Or paint yourself blue, grease up and attempt to climb The Gherkin.
Or The Wrekin. OR Carrie Symonds. OR Nigel Farage.
Diversity isn't wokery, it's freedom of choice!
The Statue of Liberty! Any American involved with this should truly reconsider.
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-final-toll/
EDIT - Yours truly has a couple commemorative Liberty Bells (and Independence Hall) on is a big porcelain decanter that used to hold a horse quart of 12-year old, 90 proof "Liberty Bell" Kentucky Bourbon, bottled in Schaefferstown, Penna
Steve Coombs
@SouthTerracer
Replying to
@JulieOwenMoylan
I was thinking the other day that I know Drakeford was friendly with Corbyn, and I imagine Baroness Morgan is relatively to the right. But I couldnt actually tell you which various factions the key figures in Welsh Labour represent.
I think this might be part of why they do ok.
9:25 PM · May 14, 2021·Twitter Web App
1 Like
https://twitter.com/SouthTerracer/status/1393301546985791499
Really? (Sarcasm alert!)
Interesting that Dr. Drakeford is a university professor? Because then he's seen more politics in action than a Tammany Hall repeater. And the way to survive and thrive in that league is NOT through invective or vituperation - NOT publicly. Play a wee bit nice, you get tenure, you can even get stuff you care about done.
Just kidding - I see your point. Also, your truly objects that DH left off "and Amersham"
What a sham! And what does he have against the good folk of A-ham? Some skeleton(s) in somebody's closet? A case for the Daily Mail? Or Psephology Today?
So I doubt if I would be voting Green in a GE any time soon even if I agreed 100% with their policies.
And @david_herdson, very many thanks for all your efforts over the years. I've thoroughly enjoyed your headers and really appreciate them. Saturday morning won't be the same without them. (Though whatever pieces go up instead will still be a good read, I have no doubt. So well-served are we on this site.)
Good morning, everyone.
Agree with what you say about the Greens. This bit made me laugh:
In reality, as UKIP showed, a smaller party can sometimes achieve a lot more by bringing pain to others notionally on their own side than by co-operating with them.
In reality, the Tories under Cameron and Osborne were very much not on their own side!
I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."
As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.
I sort of wonder whether English Labour Party is worrying about the tide going out as well (it has in Scotland)
I know many former UKIP voters who had voted Green in the past and may well do so in the future. I suspect the LDs now have a fight to the death with Labour rather than the Gs. All of this does leave the door somewhat open to a continuing Tory hegemony now they have ended their long running bloodletting over EU membership. Is a Lab/LD pact and merger possible? At least in the cause of building a realistic opposition.
On the downside, they are poorly organised and seem to have no desire to sort that out.
As a result, its members definitely do OK while their mates are in government.
It is misleading to think of them having any particular ideology beyond that. In many ways, they’re more intellectually scrambled than Plaid Cymru. They will do whatever benefits them, be that ideologically Socialist, Anarchist, Communist, or even Liberal (with apologies to Alastair Sim).
I have voted Green in the past, at 2 General Elections, and may do so again. No party has ever, or ever will, be a match for my own idiosyncratic political views, but for me what you see as a weakness, I see as a strength:
"Well, politics is a ruthless, competitive business and the Green movement seems to have a visceral antipathy to both ruthlessness and competition, preferring collegiality where possible."
The cult of the leader is one of the problems of politics, an intrinsic authoritarianism whether "Boris" or Starmer, that sucks life out of a movement. The Greens appeal to the inner anarcho-syndicalist in me and other Britons, a radical tradition with deep roots in our culture.
https://greenlibdems.org.uk/en/
Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?
So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.
As to the Green's the right approach all depends what you want to achieve. At the moment the centre left struggles to think about forming a government. But in the disaster for the centre left of 2019 Tories got 13.9 m votes, Lab+LD got the same, and Lab+LD +G got about 14.8 m.
If you want to achieve the realistic possibility of 15 years more of this, then the Greens should be fighting their electoral corner in every way. This is what they don't do in Scottish Parliament elections of course.
Until the centre left coalesces around policy and strategy they are at risk of repeating the election of 1983, which is remembered as a Tory landslide forgetting that in 1983 Tories got 13m votes and Lab + SDP got 16 m.
Only one Liberal Democrat Westminster seat has been held by two or more (actually, three) consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs. All the others were won from another party by the current incumbent.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2021/05/13/lions-and-tigers-and-bears-what-animal-would-win-f
More than that, their cause is arguably of far more importance than whatever the LibDem cause is this week. Perhaps the LibDems should stand aside? Throw their support behind the Greens nationally. Be the party of local government.
Yeah, right.....
What is their criteria for going "Lion? Take that down no probs mate, but a bear? Got to give the round to that one don't you. Might not walk again but it'd win."
The magnificent curse of being careful what you wish for applies to the Lib Dems all too strongly. They got a taste of government and found it poisonous.
If they dont actually want coalition governments and cant win power themselves, what is the point?
Representation is problematic under FPTP, we see in elections such as last weeks that around 15% of voters are voting LD. That is a long way off governing, but is a significant electorate.
Maybe it’s not too late.
Since then they have morphed into a centre left party rather than one Tories could naturally vote for.
There is only room for one centre left party in FPTP. Just as there is only room for one centre right party.
Lab, LDs and Greens should get on with it.
Those more interested in policies are often better off in other parties, as ideas can become influential. See the Greens and UKIP/BXP etc, which have set the national debate over recent years more than Lab/Con. Lib Dems have done this too, on tax policy and some aspects of education.
It matters not to me if other parties "steal" policies, as I am not seeking personal political power. It is the policies that I wish to see succeed.
Are the German Greens, who are nudging towards power, the same as British Greens in their political attitudes? And within the home-grown variety are there not 40 shades of political opinions? If they are approaching electoral significance here I would like to see their policies scrutinised for coherence across the gamut of issues that engage our politicians.
“But he has refused to accept her ruling and is trying to overturn it to avoid the risk of being suspended as an MP.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580509/Inquiry-Boris-Johnsons-Mustique-holiday-says-failed-say-financed.html
So I’d expect their polling boost to be ‘sustainable’
The rise of the greens coincides with the awareness of the public to climate change and the crisis in labour, which shows no signs of resolution in the near future, if indeed ever
I also do see the greens capturing lib dem votes as they remain largely in the doldrums
The split across the left does raise the real prospect of a conservative government for years to come, and that is not good for democracy
Somehow, the left need to coalesce around each other but I am not clear how practical this is
And by the way, let's hope Justin does not read this thread as he seems to think the greens are a passing phase
Also many thanks for Davids contributions to PB
Thanks for all the articles, Mr. Herdson. I can guess how difficult it must be to write them regularly (I've only written a couple and found them quite tricky).