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Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageChesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party – politicalbetting.com

Almost unnoticed last weekend amid the spectacular Tory win in Hartlepool, the constitution-shaking SNP-led victory in Scotland or the dismal outcome for Labour – compounded by a botched reshuffle – another party did very well: the Greens.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 15
    David, thank you for this typically analytical piece, and also for all your hard work on here for PB and us PBers. My fearless forecast is that you will get more kudos down-thread. EDIT - and up thread!

    You are clearly correct with respect to Green gains so far in the merry month of May 2021, and potential near-term impacts if this trend continues. But you don't spend too much time discussing the source of the new Green votes, except to cite "the unusual weaknesses in both Labour and the Lib Dems"

    Which is true enough, but thought it was interesting that, in Wales at least, some former UKIPers apparently voted Green. I'm guess this was largely tactical?

    Which leads me to wonder, might some Conservatives actually go Green in this and perhaps future by-elections & locals before the next general election? As either a way of registering displeasure with whatever aspect of government policy (or folly) that is displeasing them?

    AND could UK voters in these contests - and beyond - be influenced by the rise of the Green in Germany, led by moderates who have proven themselves capable, effective and popular at the state level, and now with a new, attractive young woman (remember NZ) at the helm, who is currently leading in the polls? And who looks (now) highly likely to help put her party and herself into the next federal government, quite possibly as the next Frau Bundeskanzlerin.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066

    David, thank you for this typically analytical piece, and also for all your hard work on here for PB and us PBers. My fearless forecast is that you will get more kudos down-thread. EDIT - and up thread!

    You are clearly correct with respect to Green gains so far in the merry month of May 2021, and potential near-term impacts if this trend continues. But you don't spend too much time discussing the source of the new Green votes, except to cite "the unusual weaknesses in both Labour and the Lib Dems"

    Which is true enough, but thought it was interesting that, in Wales at least, some former UKIPers apparently voted Green. I'm guess this was largely tactical?

    Which leads me to wonder, might some Conservatives actually go Green in this and perhaps future by-elections & locals before the next general election? As either a way of registering displeasure with whatever aspect of government policy (or folly) that is displeasing them?

    AND could UK voters in these contests - and beyond - be influenced by the rise of the Green in Germany, led by moderates who have proven themselves capable, effective and popular at the state level, and now with a new, attractive young woman (remember NZ) at the helm, who is currently leading in the polls? And who looks (now) highly likely to help put her party and herself into the next federal government, quite possibly as the next Frau Bundeskanzlerin.

    What about green vote in your part of the world Shanty? Surely there are enough people so into green concern there is some representation on map in places, such as costal communities?

    Here in UK Greens can attract support from anyone across the spectrum on basis of caring for global warming, polluted seas, even Tories, because the loopy manifesto just isn’t looked at.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,210
    Anecdote alert!

    My Wife, Mrs BigRich, normally votes green, but at the 2019 Euro Elections voted The Brexit Party, and I think possibly Con in 2019 GE, just to 'get Brexit done' May be an outlier but Not all green votes are from Libdem/Labour.

    In other new, and good news on the Vaccine rollout, it seems for the Phizer Vaccine at least, the dictions to delay second Jab till 12 weeks after the first, sometimes called 'First Jabs First' leaves the person with a significantly better better protection, in the form of more Antibody's.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/14/delay-in-giving-second-jabs-of-pfizer-vaccine-improves-immunity
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    gealbhan said:

    David, thank you for this typically analytical piece, and also for all your hard work on here for PB and us PBers. My fearless forecast is that you will get more kudos down-thread. EDIT - and up thread!

    You are clearly correct with respect to Green gains so far in the merry month of May 2021, and potential near-term impacts if this trend continues. But you don't spend too much time discussing the source of the new Green votes, except to cite "the unusual weaknesses in both Labour and the Lib Dems"

    Which is true enough, but thought it was interesting that, in Wales at least, some former UKIPers apparently voted Green. I'm guess this was largely tactical?

    Which leads me to wonder, might some Conservatives actually go Green in this and perhaps future by-elections & locals before the next general election? As either a way of registering displeasure with whatever aspect of government policy (or folly) that is displeasing them?

    AND could UK voters in these contests - and beyond - be influenced by the rise of the Green in Germany, led by moderates who have proven themselves capable, effective and popular at the state level, and now with a new, attractive young woman (remember NZ) at the helm, who is currently leading in the polls? And who looks (now) highly likely to help put her party and herself into the next federal government, quite possibly as the next Frau Bundeskanzlerin.

    What about green vote in your part of the world Shanty? Surely there are enough people so into green concern there is some representation on map in places, such as costal communities?

    Here in UK Greens can attract support from anyone across the spectrum on basis of caring for global warming, polluted seas, even Tories, because the loopy manifesto just isn’t looked at.
    Sadly the Greens in the US are pretty much a bad joke. At best a small part of the much larger environmentalist lobby.

    At worst shills for the Republicans; a look that Jill Stein did NOTHING to help in 2016. In fact, a few cases before than in WA State of Greens popping up to run for legislature who were nothing but stalking horses for the GOP.

    There were some genuine Greens who ran for legislature up in Bellingham north of Seattle close to the Canadian border. But they never made it past our Top Two Primary, which is essentially death to all third parties because it virtually eliminates their chance of making to the general election ballot. (Under the previous systems, blanket primary and party primary, others could qualify for general if they got 1% of the primary vote which was not to hard, though none ever got elected in my time).

    One big reason for the futility of the Green Party in the US, is the fact that the Democratic Party contains most committed enviros, and they have a lot of clout, more so I think than enviros in the Labour Party.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,264
    Here's an uplifting story:

    "Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...

    ""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.

    "The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.

    "While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."

    https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Keep well, DH.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 15
    TimT said:

    Here's an uplifting story:

    "Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...

    ""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.

    "The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.

    "While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."

    https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013

    Good deal! Next step - scramble the fine tuning for some sensitive military infrastructure in Moscow, or where ever. AND mess with the settings on Putin's personal showerhead! Scald the rotten hide off the fucking son of a bitch!!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Daily Star front page
    Ruskies warn of impending World War 3 ..by twisting 4-year-old story from the Daily Star

    When you think geo-politics, you think Daily Star, right?
    Well, it turns out you're on the same wavelength as Russian hardman Vladimir Putin.
    Full story: page 9
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57124546
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 15
    Mrs BigRich is very interesting example of Green voting tactically. Which given the clear absence of Green hope for victory in nearly all parliamentary races (so far) clearly makes sense. AND you cannot always predict which direction the cat will jump, or say for sure it will be the same direction or motivation all the time.

    This year, judging from very recent events, it will be clear to base Green voters that, as far as by-elections and locals go, voting for the Green candidate is NOT a lost cause. Rather, it represents the hope of, if not an absolute breakthrough, then certain a rising tide.



  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    TimT said:

    Here's an uplifting story:

    "Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...

    ""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.

    "The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.

    "While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."

    https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013

    It is not that uplifting as what it shows is that crucial infrastructure is vulnerable in times of peace, let alone war. Earlier reports said Colonial Pipeline had paid the $5 million "ransom" anyway.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,264

    TimT said:

    Here's an uplifting story:

    "Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...

    ""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.

    "The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.

    "While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."

    https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013

    It is not that uplifting as what it shows is that crucial infrastructure is vulnerable in times of peace, let alone war. Earlier reports said Colonial Pipeline had paid the $5 million "ransom" anyway.
    The head of the US counter-cyber unit was on NPR a couple of days ago saying - but being deliberately unspecific about it - that the US would do everything in its power to counter cyber ransoms. It appears she was referring to this.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Speaking of cybersecurity, what's the point if HMG is giving your data away?

    'Biggest data grab' in NHS history stuffs GP records in a central store for 'research' – and the time to opt out is now

    The NHS is preparing for the "biggest data grab" in the history of the service, giving patients little information or warning about the planned transfer of medical records from GP surgeries in England to a central store for research purposes – and with no prospect of the data being deleted.

    https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/13/nhs_data_grab/

    Patients have until 23 June to opt out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    edited May 15

    Speaking of cybersecurity, what's the point if HMG is giving your data away?

    'Biggest data grab' in NHS history stuffs GP records in a central store for 'research' – and the time to opt out is now

    The NHS is preparing for the "biggest data grab" in the history of the service, giving patients little information or warning about the planned transfer of medical records from GP surgeries in England to a central store for research purposes – and with no prospect of the data being deleted.

    https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/13/nhs_data_grab/

    Patients have until 23 June to opt out.

    I would never put important information on a computer database. The best place for it is on a piece of paper, in a filing cabinet. At least then someone has to physically break in to get hold of it. With computers, we all know that teenage hackers on the other side of the world can always find a way to breach security, as several important organisations have found out over the years.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Here's an uplifting story:

    "Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...

    ""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.

    "The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.

    "While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."

    https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013

    It is not that uplifting as what it shows is that crucial infrastructure is vulnerable in times of peace, let alone war. Earlier reports said Colonial Pipeline had paid the $5 million "ransom" anyway.
    The head of the US counter-cyber unit was on NPR a couple of days ago saying - but being deliberately unspecific about it - that the US would do everything in its power to counter cyber ransoms. It appears she was referring to this.
    Yes but the point is, it hasn't, at least not from the point of view of Colonial Pipeline or any driver who could not buy petrol. CP was knocked offline causing massive disruption, and the ransom was paid.

    Despite the uplifting tale from the official US counter-cyber warfare unit, all the harm was done and it is cold comfort that the bad guys don't get to spend the ransom.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    TimT said:

    Here's an uplifting story:

    "Servers for Darkside were taken down by unknown actors Friday, a week after the cyber extortionist forced the shutdown of a large US oil pipeline in a ransomware scam, a US cyber security firm said. ...

    ""A few hours ago, we lost access to the public part of our infrastructure, namely: Blog. Payment server. DOS servers," Darksupp wrote.

    "The Darkside operator also reported that cryptocurrency funds were also withdrawn from the gang's payment server, which was hosting ransom payments made by victims," said Recorded Future.

    "While there was no evidence of who might have forced down Darkside's website, the twitter account of a US military cyber warfare group, the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, retweeted the Recorded Future report on Friday."

    https://www.barrons.com/news/servers-of-colonial-pipeline-hacker-darkside-forced-down-security-firm-01621002013

    Good deal! Next step - scramble the fine tuning for some sensitive military infrastructure in Moscow, or where ever. AND mess with the settings on Putin's personal showerhead! Scald the rotten hide off the fucking son of a bitch!!
    More fun to deliver up some "evidence" of how much his loyal moneymen are "skimming" off him. A few billion here, a few billion there - and you are soon talking serious paranoia.

    It does make me wonder how much the dark web isn't largely a tool of state players, allowing them to facilitate underhand activity whilst keeping track of the players they really need to worry about. People think it is safe for nefarious activity and indeed it is largely permitted to quietly proceed. Until it is time to have a sweep of say, several thousand paedos. And a bunch more who aren't exposed - but instead, quietly blackmailed into being "assets".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Andy_JS said:

    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

    There would be some serious hangovers next day if they did......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    Mrs BigRich is very interesting example of Green voting tactically. Which given the clear absence of Green hope for victory in nearly all parliamentary races (so far) clearly makes sense. AND you cannot always predict which direction the cat will jump, or say for sure it will be the same direction or motivation all the time.

    This year, judging from very recent events, it will be clear to base Green voters that, as far as by-elections and locals go, voting for the Green candidate is NOT a lost cause. Rather, it represents the hope of, if not an absolute breakthrough, then certain a rising tide.

    They need to stick some turbines on that rising tide.....
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 964
    Thanks DH for the posts - you should be commended for your efforts. I generally agree with your analysis. Greens have sat (happily?) at the fringes for a long time (bit like the Lib Dems) and C& A would have traditionally been a deposit keeping effort and not much else.

    The LDs must be seriously concerned at the Greens parking their tanks on the lawn..... My money is on a Cons hold if both LDs and Greens contest (and even if no Green candidate I agree LDs face a big uphill but...BJ faces some tricky questions over holidays, No 10 decorations and Cameron's appearance wont have helped the cause...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 964

    Mrs BigRich is very interesting example of Green voting tactically. Which given the clear absence of Green hope for victory in nearly all parliamentary races (so far) clearly makes sense. AND you cannot always predict which direction the cat will jump, or say for sure it will be the same direction or motivation all the time.

    This year, judging from very recent events, it will be clear to base Green voters that, as far as by-elections and locals go, voting for the Green candidate is NOT a lost cause. Rather, it represents the hope of, if not an absolute breakthrough, then certain a rising tide.



    The Greens seem to occasionally generate a biggish name (C Lucas, Sian Berry) all they need is the right contest and `moment'...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Speaking of cybersecurity, what's the point if HMG is giving your data away?

    'Biggest data grab' in NHS history stuffs GP records in a central store for 'research' – and the time to opt out is now

    The NHS is preparing for the "biggest data grab" in the history of the service, giving patients little information or warning about the planned transfer of medical records from GP surgeries in England to a central store for research purposes – and with no prospect of the data being deleted.

    https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/13/nhs_data_grab/

    Patients have until 23 June to opt out.

    "First do no harm"
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,214
    Thank you David for all your articles over many years. I always read them.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,214
    Andy_JS said:

    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

    Is it to increase supplies of Marmite?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,210
    Andy_JS said:

    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

    I'm up for that challenge, may not improve the quality of my posts on here though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Irish health service hit by ransomware attack.

    Ireland's health service operator shut down all its IT systems on Friday to protect them from a "significant" ransomware attack, crippling diagnostic services, disrupting COVID-19 testing and forcing hospitals to cancel many appointments.
    https://www.reuters.com/technology/irish-health-service-hit-by-ransomware-attack-vaccine-rollout-unaffected-2021-05-14/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755

    Speaking of cybersecurity, what's the point if HMG is giving your data away?

    'Biggest data grab' in NHS history stuffs GP records in a central store for 'research' – and the time to opt out is now

    The NHS is preparing for the "biggest data grab" in the history of the service, giving patients little information or warning about the planned transfer of medical records from GP surgeries in England to a central store for research purposes – and with no prospect of the data being deleted.

    https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/13/nhs_data_grab/

    Patients have until 23 June to opt out.

    "First do no harm"
    Second, don't parcel up your country's health records and flog them off to big pharma, American hedge funds and the KGB.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    FPT - what's happening to the Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a crime. Just a crime.

    The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Andy_JS said:

    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

    Not a problem.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    BigRich said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

    I'm up for that challenge, may not improve the quality of my posts on here though.
    Optimum goal is balance between sobriety and intoxication. Approx. midpoint is the best for most creative tasks, like writing the Next Great American Novel. Or winning the St Mungo's Day wheelbarrow race down Ben Nevis or wherever it is.

    You must push the point where you are stilted, repressed and sensible.

    But stop or at least start slowing down when you become "tired and emotional". Or paint yourself blue, grease up and attempt to climb The Gherkin.

    Or The Wrekin. OR Carrie Symonds. OR Nigel Farage.

    Diversity isn't wokery, it's freedom of choice!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 15

    FPT - what's happening to the Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a crime. Just a crime.

    The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.

    After reading the link below (forget who posted but thanks!) tend to agree, indeed definitely. Plenty of fancy-pantsy hotels, far fewer historic gems.

    The Statue of Liberty! Any American involved with this should truly reconsider.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/the-final-toll/

    EDIT - Yours truly has a couple commemorative Liberty Bells (and Independence Hall) on is a big porcelain decanter that used to hold a horse quart of 12-year old, 90 proof "Liberty Bell" Kentucky Bourbon, bottled in Schaefferstown, Penna
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755

    FPT - what's happening to the Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a crime. Just a crime.

    The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.

    Or at least insist the new owners preserve most of it.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    Think I agree with this on Welsh Lab..

    Steve Coombs
    @SouthTerracer
    Replying to
    @JulieOwenMoylan

    I was thinking the other day that I know Drakeford was friendly with Corbyn, and I imagine Baroness Morgan is relatively to the right. But I couldnt actually tell you which various factions the key figures in Welsh Labour represent.

    I think this might be part of why they do ok.

    9:25 PM · May 14, 2021·Twitter Web App
    1 Like

    https://twitter.com/SouthTerracer/status/1393301546985791499
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Speaking of cybersecurity, what's the point if HMG is giving your data away?

    'Biggest data grab' in NHS history stuffs GP records in a central store for 'research' – and the time to opt out is now

    The NHS is preparing for the "biggest data grab" in the history of the service, giving patients little information or warning about the planned transfer of medical records from GP surgeries in England to a central store for research purposes – and with no prospect of the data being deleted.

    https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/13/nhs_data_grab/

    Patients have until 23 June to opt out.

    "First do no harm"
    Second, don't parcel up your country's health records and flog them off to big pharma, American hedge funds and the KGB.
    Galen covered that, anticipated it. After all, he WAS living in the Roman Empire.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Andy_JS said:

    "Brits urged to drink 124 pints each to help struggling pubs get back on their feet"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

    Not a problem.
    Were is William Hague when his country needs him? His time has come!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    FPT - what's happening to the Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a crime. Just a crime.

    The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.

    Or at least insist the new owners preserve most of it.
    Isn't this what listing is for?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    Naughty David, a blatant attempt to try and split the anti Tory vote and a lead that is more polemic than analysis!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Think I agree with this on Welsh Lab..

    Steve Coombs
    @SouthTerracer
    Replying to
    @JulieOwenMoylan

    I was thinking the other day that I know Drakeford was friendly with Corbyn, and I imagine Baroness Morgan is relatively to the right. But I couldnt actually tell you which various factions the key figures in Welsh Labour represent.

    I think this might be part of why they do ok.

    9:25 PM · May 14, 2021·Twitter Web App
    1 Like

    https://twitter.com/SouthTerracer/status/1393301546985791499

    "I think this might be part of why they do ok."

    Really? (Sarcasm alert!)

    Interesting that Dr. Drakeford is a university professor? Because then he's seen more politics in action than a Tammany Hall repeater. And the way to survive and thrive in that league is NOT through invective or vituperation - NOT publicly. Play a wee bit nice, you get tenure, you can even get stuff you care about done.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 15
    IanB2 said:

    Naughty David, a blatant attempt to try and split the anti Tory vote and a lead that is more polemic than analysis!

    Man, you clearly do NOT understand the concept of a farewell party! You give the guy a gold watch NOT an autographed turd!

    Just kidding - I see your point. Also, your truly objects that DH left off "and Amersham"

    What a sham! And what does he have against the good folk of A-ham? Some skeleton(s) in somebody's closet? A case for the Daily Mail? Or Psephology Today?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,839
    In my younger days I lived in constituencies where they weighed the Conservative votes, so I regularly voted for no-chance candidates merely to demonstrate support for their views. Since I've lived in places where the vote could go several ways, I find I tend to vote against whichever potential party of government I least want to see win. (At local level I've had the luxury of voting for someone because of personal knowledge of them.)

    So I doubt if I would be voting Green in a GE any time soon even if I agreed 100% with their policies.

    And @david_herdson, very many thanks for all your efforts over the years. I've thoroughly enjoyed your headers and really appreciate them. Saturday morning won't be the same without them. (Though whatever pieces go up instead will still be a good read, I have no doubt. So well-served are we on this site.)

    Good morning, everyone.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Thanks David for all the articles, I hope to read more in the future.

    Agree with what you say about the Greens. This bit made me laugh:

    In reality, as UKIP showed, a smaller party can sometimes achieve a lot more by bringing pain to others notionally on their own side than by co-operating with them.

    In reality, the Tories under Cameron and Osborne were very much not on their own side!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Agree with everyone else; thanks Mr H for the thoughtful contributions over the years.
    I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
    Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
    Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."

    As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 964

    Agree with everyone else; thanks Mr H for the thoughtful contributions over the years.
    I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
    Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
    Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."

    As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.


    I sort of wonder whether English Labour Party is worrying about the tide going out as well (it has in Scotland)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,957

    FPT - what's happening to the Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a crime. Just a crime.

    The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.

    There’s a very fine country house on the edge of Luton called Luton Hoo. It was bought by a hotel group, after the owner sadly committed suicide. And they have done an incredible job in restoring it (though personally, I used to love its air of faded grandeur). I don’t see why something similar could not be done in this case.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120

    Agree with everyone else; thanks Mr H for the thoughtful contributions over the years.
    I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
    Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
    Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."

    As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.


    I sort of wonder whether English Labour Party is worrying about the tide going out as well (it has in Scotland)
    Without unionised industrial workers it needs a rethink about it's foundations.
  • Thank you Mr. Herdson for your contributions.

    I know many former UKIP voters who had voted Green in the past and may well do so in the future. I suspect the LDs now have a fight to the death with Labour rather than the Gs. All of this does leave the door somewhat open to a continuing Tory hegemony now they have ended their long running bloodletting over EU membership. Is a Lab/LD pact and merger possible? At least in the cause of building a realistic opposition.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,424
    edited May 15
    The Greens carry three advantages ; naturally aligned to the biggest long term issue we face, secondly they carry no baggage (Brexit, Iraq, Coalition) and thirdly they are unknown enough to be able to adapt to local circumstances.

    On the downside, they are poorly organised and seem to have no desire to sort that out.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,210

    Agree with everyone else; thanks Mr H for the thoughtful contributions over the years.
    I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
    Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
    Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."

    As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.

    If the Lib Dems, don't show sings of meaningful progress over the new couple of years and the greens grow at Local government but don't look set for a big Westminster wave. Could the reality of 'First Past the Post' incentivise an alliance or merger? just as id did in the 1980s for the liberal party and the SDP. the Democratic Greens, or the Green Liberals maybe?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    Think I agree with this on Welsh Lab..

    Steve Coombs
    @SouthTerracer
    Replying to
    @JulieOwenMoylan

    I was thinking the other day that I know Drakeford was friendly with Corbyn, and I imagine Baroness Morgan is relatively to the right. But I couldnt actually tell you which various factions the key figures in Welsh Labour represent.

    I think this might be part of why they do ok.

    9:25 PM · May 14, 2021·Twitter Web App
    1 Like

    https://twitter.com/SouthTerracer/status/1393301546985791499

    Welsh Labour represents itself.

    As a result, its members definitely do OK while their mates are in government.

    It is misleading to think of them having any particular ideology beyond that. In many ways, they’re more intellectually scrambled than Plaid Cymru. They will do whatever benefits them, be that ideologically Socialist, Anarchist, Communist, or even Liberal (with apologies to Alastair Sim).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    Thanks for all the Saturday headers @david_herdson over the years, I am sure that an occasional gig is less onerous, and best wishes.

    I have voted Green in the past, at 2 General Elections, and may do so again. No party has ever, or ever will, be a match for my own idiosyncratic political views, but for me what you see as a weakness, I see as a strength:

    "Well, politics is a ruthless, competitive business and the Green movement seems to have a visceral antipathy to both ruthlessness and competition, preferring collegiality where possible."

    The cult of the leader is one of the problems of politics, an intrinsic authoritarianism whether "Boris" or Starmer, that sucks life out of a movement. The Greens appeal to the inner anarcho-syndicalist in me and other Britons, a radical tradition with deep roots in our culture.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,470

    FPT - what's happening to the Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a crime. Just a crime.

    The Government should have bought it and turned it into a national museum.

    Maybe sort out the 100,000+ children living in poverty before channeling the tax payers' largesse toward a bourgeois church bell themed Disneyland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    BigRich said:

    Agree with everyone else; thanks Mr H for the thoughtful contributions over the years.
    I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
    Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
    Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."

    As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.

    If the Lib Dems, don't show sings of meaningful progress over the new couple of years and the greens grow at Local government but don't look set for a big Westminster wave. Could the reality of 'First Past the Post' incentivise an alliance or merger? just as id did in the 1980s for the liberal party and the SDP. the Democratic Greens, or the Green Liberals maybe?

    The Green Lib Dems are quite a strong LD faction, indeed organise their own events and conferences. I see them as more light Green (as per Germany) than dark Green like our own Green Party.

    https://greenlibdems.org.uk/en/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    Thank you for this and a long series of excellent articles.

    As to the Green's the right approach all depends what you want to achieve. At the moment the centre left struggles to think about forming a government. But in the disaster for the centre left of 2019 Tories got 13.9 m votes, Lab+LD got the same, and Lab+LD +G got about 14.8 m.

    If you want to achieve the realistic possibility of 15 years more of this, then the Greens should be fighting their electoral corner in every way. This is what they don't do in Scottish Parliament elections of course.

    Until the centre left coalesces around policy and strategy they are at risk of repeating the election of 1983, which is remembered as a Tory landslide forgetting that in 1983 Tories got 13m votes and Lab + SDP got 16 m.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 15
    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Damning stat of the day:

    Only one Liberal Democrat Westminster seat has been held by two or more (actually, three) consecutive Liberal Democrat MPs. All the others were won from another party by the current incumbent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    On a lighter note, and a fairly un-Green one, this from Yougov caught my eye. There are a lot of delusional people out there:

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2021/05/13/lions-and-tigers-and-bears-what-animal-would-win-f
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    It would be an act of great largesse for the Greens to stand aside at C&A. They are the party with their tails up after the locals.

    More than that, their cause is arguably of far more importance than whatever the LibDem cause is this week. Perhaps the LibDems should stand aside? Throw their support behind the Greens nationally. Be the party of local government.

    Yeah, right.....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, and a fairly un-Green one, this from Yougov caught my eye. There are a lot of delusional people out there:

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2021/05/13/lions-and-tigers-and-bears-what-animal-would-win-f

    I want to know about the 2% of women who think they could beat a lion but not a bear (yes I know they might not overlap but give me the benefit of the doubt) .

    What is their criteria for going "Lion? Take that down no probs mate, but a bear? Got to give the round to that one don't you. Might not walk again but it'd win."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, and a fairly un-Green one, this from Yougov caught my eye. There are a lot of delusional people out there:

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2021/05/13/lions-and-tigers-and-bears-what-animal-would-win-f

    I want to know about the 2% of women who think they could beat a lion but not a bear (yes I know they might not overlap but give me the benefit of the doubt) .

    What is their criteria for going "Lion? Take that down no probs mate, but a bear? Got to give the round to that one don't you. Might not walk again but it'd win."
    I’d far rather face a lion than a polar bear, but weirdly most Yanks seem to think grizzlies are more dangerous. Probably because they see polars only on TV looking cute.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    Of late they have not been particularly liberal or democratic, they have not had a distinctive voice or indeed any voice at all. The heady days of Charlie Kennedy when he became the conscience of the nation, however briefly, or the days of "I agree with NIck" seem a long time ago. How long can it be until their position at debates is taken by the Greens? Surely not long at all.

    The magnificent curse of being careful what you wish for applies to the Lib Dems all too strongly. They got a taste of government and found it poisonous.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    edited May 15
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    Of late they have not been particularly liberal or democratic, they have not had a distinctive voice or indeed any voice at all. The heady days of Charlie Kennedy when he became the conscience of the nation, however briefly, or the days of "I agree with NIck" seem a long time ago. How long can it be until their position at debates is taken by the Greens? Surely not long at all.

    The magnificent curse of being careful what you wish for applies to the Lib Dems all too strongly. They got a taste of government and found it poisonous.
    They had to champion coalition governments and explain why those are better than one party rule. The irony is the coalition was indeed far better than most one party governments but the LDs were embarrassed by it and let Cameron get the credit for it.

    If they dont actually want coalition governments and cant win power themselves, what is the point?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    edited May 15

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    While there are Centrist factions in both Labour and Conservatives, the stateism of the one, and nationalism of the other don't fit well with many centrist.

    Representation is problematic under FPTP, we see in elections such as last weeks that around 15% of voters are voting LD. That is a long way off governing, but is a significant electorate.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    While there are Centrist factions in both Labour and Conservatives, the stateism of the one, and nationalism of the other don't fit well with many centrist.

    Representation is problematic under FPTP, we see in elections such as last weeks that around 15% of voters are voting LD. That is a long way off governing, but is a significant electorate.
    If we had PR then of course the point of the LDs is obvious. We don't though. And they dont seem to like coalitions. Are the 15% getting a good or bad deal in representation?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,214

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    While there are Centrist factions in both Labour and Conservatives, the stateism of the one, and nationalism of the other don't fit well with many centrist.

    Representation is problematic under FPTP, we see in elections such as last weeks that around 15% of voters are voting LD. That is a long way off governing, but is a significant electorate.
    If we had PR then of course the point of the LDs is obvious. We don't though. And they dont seem to like coalitions. Are the 15% getting a good or bad deal in representation?
    What % of Lib Dem votes are not actually for the Lib Dems but against something else? I voted LD over brexit as I was a remainer and voted LD for the locals as the Tories are pretty much unbeatable in my area. I would be very unlikely to vote LD at a.GE
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    edited May 15

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    While there are Centrist factions in both Labour and Conservatives, the stateism of the one, and nationalism of the other don't fit well with many centrist.

    Representation is problematic under FPTP, we see in elections such as last weeks that around 15% of voters are voting LD. That is a long way off governing, but is a significant electorate.
    If we had PR then of course the point of the LDs is obvious. We don't though. And they dont seem to like coalitions. Are the 15% getting a good or bad deal in representation?
    What % of Lib Dem votes are not actually for the Lib Dems but against something else? I voted LD over brexit as I was a remainer and voted LD for the locals as the Tories are pretty much unbeatable in my area. I would be very unlikely to vote LD at a.GE
    That is true but there are probably a similar number of LDs who vote Tory/Labour to keep the other one out.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    Of late they have not been particularly liberal or democratic, they have not had a distinctive voice or indeed any voice at all. The heady days of Charlie Kennedy when he became the conscience of the nation, however briefly, or the days of "I agree with NIck" seem a long time ago. How long can it be until their position at debates is taken by the Greens? Surely not long at all.

    The magnificent curse of being careful what you wish for applies to the Lib Dems all too strongly. They got a taste of government and found it poisonous.
    They had to champion coalition governments and explain why those are better than one party rule. The irony is the coalition was indeed far better than most one party governments but the LDs were embarrassed by it and let Cameron get the credit for it.

    If they dont actually want coalition governments and cant win power themselves, what is the point?
    The LDs came out of their coalition in a confused state, having proved that their voters understand very little about how politics works - not even realising that if you are not the lead governing party you can't keep every promise.

    Since then they have morphed into a centre left party rather than one Tories could naturally vote for.

    There is only room for one centre left party in FPTP. Just as there is only room for one centre right party.

    Lab, LDs and Greens should get on with it.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    While there are Centrist factions in both Labour and Conservatives, the stateism of the one, and nationalism of the other don't fit well with many centrist.

    Representation is problematic under FPTP, we see in elections such as last weeks that around 15% of voters are voting LD. That is a long way off governing, but is a significant electorate.
    If we had PR then of course the point of the LDs is obvious. We don't though. And they dont seem to like coalitions. Are the 15% getting a good or bad deal in representation?
    I think that any individual centrist seeking personal power is probably better off in either Lab, Con, or SNP. Any of these have a path to government.

    Those more interested in policies are often better off in other parties, as ideas can become influential. See the Greens and UKIP/BXP etc, which have set the national debate over recent years more than Lab/Con. Lib Dems have done this too, on tax policy and some aspects of education.

    It matters not to me if other parties "steal" policies, as I am not seeking personal political power. It is the policies that I wish to see succeed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354

    Agree with everyone else; thanks Mr H for the thoughtful contributions over the years.
    I always wonder whether politics, and indeed life, is like tides. Which are, after all, very basic features of life on Earth. And while tides come in and out inexorably, they don't do so without a certain amount of to and fro.
    Although a few years ago the Greens made a massive advance and then fell back, they didn't fall back quite as far. So I think they'll fall back from this, but again not quite as far, and the next time they advance they'll do so to a higher point.
    Of, course, as well, 'there is a ride in the affairs of men, which, taken on the flood, leads on to fortune."

    As a one time Lib activist and sometime LD party member and voter, I wonder whether the mess-up over the Coalition won't prove fatal. Once tides start to go out, they can't be stopped.

    Eh? Normally you just need to wait six hours
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, and a fairly un-Green one, this from Yougov caught my eye. There are a lot of delusional people out there:

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2021/05/13/lions-and-tigers-and-bears-what-animal-would-win-f

    I want to know about the 2% of women who think they could beat a lion but not a bear (yes I know they might not overlap but give me the benefit of the doubt) .

    What is their criteria for going "Lion? Take that down no probs mate, but a bear? Got to give the round to that one don't you. Might not walk again but it'd win."
    How do people think they will lose in a fight with a rat? That is even stranger than thinking they could beat an elephant without any weapons involved.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    Jonathan said:

    The Greens carry three advantages ; naturally aligned to the biggest long term issue we face, secondly they carry no baggage (Brexit, Iraq, Coalition) and thirdly they are unknown enough to be able to adapt to local circumstances.

    On the downside, they are poorly organised and seem to have no desire to sort that out.

    Yes, that last point is important. Having helped out in their UK number two target seat last time, I saw this for myself. It was worse than where the Liberal Party was in a non-target seat forty years ago.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,614
    Happy semi-PB-retirement David. We'll miss that dollop of pragmatic sanity each weekend not to mention the forensic examination of the mechanics of politics to sort the genuinely possible from the pipe dreams.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,327
    Many thanks @david_herdson for your insightful psephological Saturday narratives over the years.

    Are the German Greens, who are nudging towards power, the same as British Greens in their political attitudes? And within the home-grown variety are there not 40 shades of political opinions? If they are approaching electoral significance here I would like to see their policies scrutinised for coherence across the gamut of issues that engage our politicians.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Jonathan said:

    The Greens carry three advantages ; naturally aligned to the biggest long term issue we face, secondly they carry no baggage (Brexit, Iraq, Coalition) and thirdly they are unknown enough to be able to adapt to local circumstances.

    On the downside, they are poorly organised and seem to have no desire to sort that out.

    Yes - their most likely achievement in the short run at least could be to further divide the messy opposition.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    Rather explosive scoop: “Her damning verdict was delivered privately to Mr Johnson months ago.
    “But he has refused to accept her ruling and is trying to overturn it to avoid the risk of being suspended as an MP.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580509/Inquiry-Boris-Johnsons-Mustique-holiday-says-failed-say-financed.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    Electorally over the long term the answer is that they give dissatisfied Tories who would never vote Labour, someone to vote for. The missing element right now is large numbers of dissatisfied Tories. As and when that changes, the answers to the questions being raised about Labour, the LibDems and the Greens might look different.
  • Would the three left parties and PC/SNP (if Scotland is still in the U.K.) consider it worthwhile to run a single slate in the next election for the purpose of implementing PR ( I am saying this as a wide framework) in a quickly held follow up election? Otherwise, without a strong UKIP type party there is a chance of a default conservative rule for times to come.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188

    Off thread. I see Martin Bashir has quit the BBC before the release of the enquiry report into his behaviour over the Diana Interview. He should have been sacked IMHO

    Is this similar to the Ballymurphy discussion the other day; ie should the Beeb be held to much higher ethical standards than the rest of the media, as the Army should be compared to paramilitaries?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    Electorally over the long term the answer is that they give dissatisfied Tories who would never vote Labour, someone to vote for. The missing element right now is large numbers of dissatisfied Tories. As and when that changes, the answers to the questions being raised about Labour, the LibDems and the Greens might look different.
    There are lots of dissatisfied Tories, the Clarke/Stewart/Hammond pragmatic remainer wing and the libertarian wing angry at lockdowns should both be fertile ground for the LDs. That the LDs are not making progress with those is my point. Pre coalition they would have been polling in the high teens/low 20s in this political environment.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 15
    Another thought that should disturb the Liberal Democrats is that of their eleven seats, only two were held by the party in 2015 - Orkney and Shetland and Westmorland and Lonsdale. All the others have been held for four years or less.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852

    Off thread. I see Martin Bashir has quit the BBC before the release of the enquiry report into his behaviour over the Diana Interview. He should have been sacked IMHO

    Is this similar to the Ballymurphy discussion the other day; ie should the Beeb be held to much higher ethical standards than the rest of the media, as the Army should be compared to paramilitaries?
    Lying and forgery should be off limits by any standard.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    I always thought the Greens would likely benefit from the hostility to Corbyn and Co from Labour’s ‘New Management’. Plenty of Jezza’s supporters won’t vote for Sir Keir, & the Greens look like the obvious place to go.

    So I’d expect their polling boost to be ‘sustainable’
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    IshmaelZ said:

    Off thread. I see Martin Bashir has quit the BBC before the release of the enquiry report into his behaviour over the Diana Interview. He should have been sacked IMHO

    Is this similar to the Ballymurphy discussion the other day; ie should the Beeb be held to much higher ethical standards than the rest of the media, as the Army should be compared to paramilitaries?
    Lying and forgery should be off limits by any standard.
    For sure (as should be shooting innocent people in the back), but if we found some new evidence that a NOTW journalist had done what Bashir did 25 years ago, would there be the public interest element in properly investigating it that seems so rampantly obvious in the Bashir case?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 469
    The only ones happy with the Greens doing well are the Tories . Voting Green will split the progressive vote at a GE . . Unless Labour and the Greens come to some agreement then a vote for them is effectively a vote for the Tories who will scoop up more seats . Similarly Labour and the Lib Dems need to come to an agreement . The time for party purity is over ! Unless that is the non Tories want to keep this cesspit government in power for the foreseeable future.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    Sorry to see @david_herdson semi retire. Thanks for the interesting articles David and good luck
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    IshmaelZ said:

    Lying and forgery should be off limits by any standard.

    BoZo made a career out of it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    isam said:

    I always thought the Greens would likely benefit from the hostility to Corbyn and Co from Labour’s ‘New Management’. Plenty of Jezza’s supporters won’t vote for Sir Keir, & the Greens look like the obvious place to go.

    So I’d expect their polling boost to be ‘sustainable’

    Yes, but is it renewable?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited May 15
    Good morning

    The rise of the greens coincides with the awareness of the public to climate change and the crisis in labour, which shows no signs of resolution in the near future, if indeed ever

    I also do see the greens capturing lib dem votes as they remain largely in the doldrums

    The split across the left does raise the real prospect of a conservative government for years to come, and that is not good for democracy

    Somehow, the left need to coalesce around each other but I am not clear how practical this is

    And by the way, let's hope Justin does not read this thread as he seems to think the greens are a passing phase

    Also many thanks for Davids contributions to PB
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Lying and forgery should be off limits by any standard.

    BoZo made a career out of it
    Tell us you have some tweets about his forgery..
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,402

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic it seems to me that the Lib Dems are dying. Their poor performance in the Scottish Parliamentary elections included the painful reality that they did not get a single list seat being entirely dependent on a few constituencies which are in turn fairly dependent upon personal votes. Their performance in Airdrie and Shotts was as derisory as their performance in Hartlepool.

    Politics may a ruthless and competitive business as David says but it is not as if the main parties are pulling up trees or squeezing the daylight out of them either. There should be plenty remainer Tories who are pissed off with the direction of the party (they can't surely all just be on PB) and disillusionment with Labour remains widespread. If the Lib Dems are not going to thrive in such an environment when can they?

    So there is a clear vacancy for the NOTA party at present and it does appear that the Greens are up for the application. It seems all too likely that their sister party will be in government in Germany soon as well which will give them a boost in credibility as the lights don't go off and industry continues to thrive. I can see them becoming a significant third force in this country over the coming decade.

    I have asked on here a few times this year what is the point of the LibDems in the 2020s and yet to receive a convincing answer. The forces of liberalism and centrist politics are probably better served as factions within the two big parties than as an independent party, at national level at least. Labour currently have a policy void to fill, and who knows what the Tories will become when "Boris" leaves the scene, they yo-yo from an ideology to the next, remarkably maintaining many loyal cheerleaders throughout.
    Electorally over the long term the answer is that they give dissatisfied Tories who would never vote Labour, someone to vote for. The missing element right now is large numbers of dissatisfied Tories. As and when that changes, the answers to the questions being raised about Labour, the LibDems and the Greens might look different.
    There are lots of dissatisfied Tories, the Clarke/Stewart/Hammond pragmatic remainer wing and the libertarian wing angry at lockdowns should both be fertile ground for the LDs. That the LDs are not making progress with those is my point. Pre coalition they would have been polling in the high teens/low 20s in this political environment.

    I now just see the LDs as a centre-left party. Orange Book liberals are not much in evidence since the Coalition. Not sure where there is to go if I decide the Tories. Probably just vote for the party likeliest to beat them and hold my nose.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016

    IshmaelZ said:

    Off thread. I see Martin Bashir has quit the BBC before the release of the enquiry report into his behaviour over the Diana Interview. He should have been sacked IMHO

    Is this similar to the Ballymurphy discussion the other day; ie should the Beeb be held to much higher ethical standards than the rest of the media, as the Army should be compared to paramilitaries?
    Lying and forgery should be off limits by any standard.
    For sure (as should be shooting innocent people in the back), but if we found some new evidence that a NOTW journalist had done what Bashir did 25 years ago, would there be the public interest element in properly investigating it that seems so rampantly obvious in the Bashir case?
    Perhaps if it was a Times journalist who was lying 33 years ago, then yes it would now be in the public interest for more people to know about it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Good morning, everyone.

    Thanks for all the articles, Mr. Herdson. I can guess how difficult it must be to write them regularly (I've only written a couple and found them quite tricky).
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    I always thought the Greens would likely benefit from the hostility to Corbyn and Co from Labour’s ‘New Management’. Plenty of Jezza’s supporters won’t vote for Sir Keir, & the Greens look like the obvious place to go.

    So I’d expect their polling boost to be ‘sustainable’

    Yes, but is it renewable?
    Would be interesting if Jezza stood as a Green in Islington North next time
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    nico679 said:

    The only ones happy with the Greens doing well are the Tories . Voting Green will split the progressive vote at a GE . . Unless Labour and the Greens come to some agreement then a vote for them is effectively a vote for the Tories who will scoop up more seats . Similarly Labour and the Lib Dems need to come to an agreement . The time for party purity is over ! Unless that is the non Tories want to keep this cesspit government in power for the foreseeable future.

    You do not like this government but the public keep voting for it and will do so until its opposition can move on from the policies so much rejected by the voters

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016

    nico679 said:

    The only ones happy with the Greens doing well are the Tories . Voting Green will split the progressive vote at a GE . . Unless Labour and the Greens come to some agreement then a vote for them is effectively a vote for the Tories who will scoop up more seats . Similarly Labour and the Lib Dems need to come to an agreement . The time for party purity is over ! Unless that is the non Tories want to keep this cesspit government in power for the foreseeable future.

    You do not like this government but the public keep voting for it and will do so until its opposition can move on from the policies so much rejected by the voters

    Or if the opposition decide not to have three different left of centre parties to split their votes in a FPTP system!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited May 15

    nico679 said:

    The only ones happy with the Greens doing well are the Tories . Voting Green will split the progressive vote at a GE . . Unless Labour and the Greens come to some agreement then a vote for them is effectively a vote for the Tories who will scoop up more seats . Similarly Labour and the Lib Dems need to come to an agreement . The time for party purity is over ! Unless that is the non Tories want to keep this cesspit government in power for the foreseeable future.

    You do not like this government but the public keep voting for it and will do so until its opposition can move on from the policies so much rejected by the voters

    Or if the opposition decide not to have three different left of centre parties to split their votes in a FPTP system!
    I could not agree more
This discussion has been closed.