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edited July 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

Tories take lead – Ukip down 7 – in latest ICM/Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/abv7Nah6BT

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  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First, like the Tories!
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2014
    'Others' still quite high.

    Martin Boon points out:

    The more striking thing, as he sees it, is the failure of the declining protest vote to split decisively in any direction. Too many voters, he says, see "no reason to commit just yet", instead "holding off, perhaps until the end of this year, to see whether they can really feel the recovery in their pockets or not by that point".

    I'd suggest it's not so much whether they can feel the recovery in their own pockets, as whether it's too much of a risk to switch back to a Labour government.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited July 2014
    Hahahaha

    For the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 14% lead with ICM in July 2009.

    Ed truly is crap
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Holy crossover, batman.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Baxter..

    National Prediction: LAB short 13 of majority

    Party 2010 Votes 2010 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Pred Seats
    CON 36.97% 307 34.00% 18 40 285
    LAB 29.66% 258 33.00% 55 0 313
    LIB 23.56% 57 12.00% 0 32 25
    UKIP 3.17% 0 9.00% 0 0 0
    NAT 2.26% 9 2.26% 0 0 9
    MIN 0.89% 19 0.89% 0 1 18
    OTH 3.48% 0 8.85% 0 0 0
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Ive updated the google doc with the three polls today:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Speccie rolling blog - Hague?

    Isabel on a rumour doing the rounds:
    In terms of what we can expect from this evening, it looks as though the announcements will predominantly be sackings. But there is a rumour that there may be a big announcement at some point tonight, possibly an unexpected retirement.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    "Where is the (gold standard) crossover?"

    Still 10 more months for further swingback too.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Wow!
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    edited July 2014
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Speccie rolling blog - Hague?

    Isabel on a rumour doing the rounds:
    In terms of what we can expect from this evening, it looks as though the announcements will predominantly be sackings. But there is a rumour that there may be a big announcement at some point tonight, possibly an unexpected retirement.

    That might well be Hague. Perhaps he is heading off to Brussels.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Speccie rolling blog - Hague?

    Isabel on a rumour doing the rounds:
    In terms of what we can expect from this evening, it looks as though the announcements will predominantly be sackings. But there is a rumour that there may be a big announcement at some point tonight, possibly an unexpected retirement.

    I said last week at the PB meet that I expected William Hague to stand down.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited July 2014
    PBreds ignore this poll, there's those 7% ones to cling to last week.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    Ive updated the google doc with the three polls today:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Excellent - that is a flaccid drooping from the purple protrusion.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Ive updated the google doc with the three polls today:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Excellent - that is a flaccid drooping from the purple protrusion.
    UKIP haven't gone sub-10 for about six months.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Ive updated the google doc with the three polls today:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Excellent - that is a flaccid drooping from the purple protrusion.
    UKIP haven't gone sub-10 for about six months.
    The only polls having them in the high teens or 20+ recently are TNS and Survation..
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    But even with this fabled crossover Ed still becomes PM......yes?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Cyclefree said:

    But even with this fabled crossover Ed still becomes PM......yes?

    Sure, if there were an election tomorrow.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Damn, the Guardian have not included the politicians ratings in their piece.

    So we will have to wait until tomorrow to know if George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician in the UK, and is Ed still crapper than Nick Clegg.

    The tension is overwhelming me
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    I think Ed's (dwindling) supporters will try and ignore this for now.

    YouGov will be critical I think. Lefties will put on a brave face until a YouGov turns up with Con in the lead... Then all hell will break lose probably. ;)
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hahahaha

    For the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 14% lead with ICM in July 2009.

    Ed truly is crap

    True but the public hadn't realised how crap Cameron was at that point. Ed already has the crap factored in.

  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    Tim & Basil will be gutted.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    methinks ICM spend too much time in leafy areas
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    MrJones said:

    methinks ICM spend too much time in leafy areas

    methinks there is some wishful thinking going on here...
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cyclefree said:

    But even with this fabled crossover Ed still becomes PM......yes?

    He needs the LDs or some unlikely rainbow with no orange coalition.
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Ive updated the google doc with the three polls today:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Excellent - that is a flaccid drooping from the purple protrusion.
    UKIP haven't gone sub-10 for about six months.
    No, but since they're going to get maybe 5% in the GE - it is the law - they have to move into single figures at some point.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Can't pretend its good for Ukip.

    I still say no pollster has proven themselves accurate in 4 party politics, but a drop is a drop and this is a biggie.

    How sad it would be if the old guard got to carry on giving away all our power until there was nothing left
  • Gadfly
    Gadfly Posts: 1,205
    Chart of ICM/Guardian polls since 2010 general election...
    http://www.mediafire.com/view/ppajez4nrpjapp4/ICM_Guardian_polls_since_2010_GE.jpg
    (UKIP gaps due not always prompted)

    Showing a similar squeeze to an averaged YouGov polls over the same period...
    http://www.mediafire.com/view/3xdx8azi2b2ggjq/10-Poll_YouGov_since_2010_GE.jpg
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited July 2014
    Hague and Clarke to step out of the limelight?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    But even with this fabled crossover Ed still becomes PM......yes?

    If you believe this Gold Standard poll* and it happened tomorrow sure. But realistically I wouldn't put money on Ed coming PM if he is behind in the polls now.

    * As positive as this poll is until others back it up it could be a rogue or outlier. Though its not the first poll this year to show crossover.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    GIN1138 said:

    I think Ed's (dwindling) supporters will try and ignore this for now.

    YouGov will be critical I think. Lefties will put on a brave face until a YouGov turns up with Con in the lead... Then all hell will break lose probably. ;)

    Ashcroft, Populus, the marginals polling? It's tricky because ICM is generally considered the gold standard but on the Lab/Tory battle they are out of line.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Can anyone link me to the data tables ?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Ive updated the google doc with the three polls today:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Excellent - that is a flaccid drooping from the purple protrusion.
    UKIP haven't gone sub-10 for about six months.
    The only polls having them in the high teens or 20+ recently are TNS and Survation..

    9% is okay for UKIP, with ICM.

    The poll is undoubtedly good news for the Tories, though.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrankBooth said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Ed's (dwindling) supporters will try and ignore this for now.

    YouGov will be critical I think. Lefties will put on a brave face until a YouGov turns up with Con in the lead... Then all hell will break lose probably. ;)

    but on the Lab/Tory battle they are out of line.
    Says who ?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Calm down no need to order the tressle tables yet.

    EICIPM in all June and July polls including this one
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Ouch.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    MrJones said:

    Hague and Clarke to step out of the limelight?

    Hague out?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone link me to the data tables ?

    They're not up.

    Won't be until tomorrow.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The "Unexpected retirement" is Ken Clarke.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    edited July 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cyclefree said:

    But even with this fabled crossover Ed still becomes PM......yes?

    Sure, if there were an election tomorrow.
    So until the Tories start getting regular poll leads of 7% or more, no change to the likely outcome of the next election.

    I quite accept that this may hearten / dishearten parties and their likely voters so any sort of a poll lead may have an effect quite disproportionate to its actual size. Still, there is not much time for the Tories to turn things round, I'm wary of underestimating Ed M (who I think is both cannier and nicer than some give him credit for) and the Tories' capacity for shooting themselves in the foot should never be underestimated either.

    (Edited for spelling mistakes.)

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hahahaha

    For the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 14% lead with ICM in July 2009.

    Ed truly is crap

    True but the public hadn't realised how crap Cameron was at that point. Ed already has the crap factored in.

    You're assuming Ed can't get any crapper.

    Brave.
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Oh lord.

    Let the hysteria commence.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2014
    Cyclefree said:

    So until the Tories start getting regular poll leads of 7% or more, no change to the likely outcome of the next election.

    I quite accept that this may hearten / dishearten parties and their likely voters so any sort of a poll lead may have an effect quite disproportionate to its actual size. Still, there is not much time for the Tories to tur things round, I'm wary of underestimating Ed M (who I think is both cannier and nicer than some give him credit for) and the Tories' capacity for shooting themselves in the foot should nerver be underestimated either.

    I take the foot-shooting point, but it's certainly not the case that there is not much time to turn things round. I refer you to the analysis of Professor Fisher, which indicates that on previous experience there is every likelihood of a turnaround (though a shift in the other direction is also possible, of course).
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Can't pretend its good for Ukip.

    I still say no pollster has proven themselves accurate in 4 party politics, but a drop is a drop and this is a biggie.

    How sad it would be if the old guard got to carry on giving away all our power until there was nothing left

    There's no guarantee that in Westminster we're in an era of 4 party politics. Seat-wise besides nationalists we could be heading back to 2 party politics.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    oxfordsimon said:

    MrJones said:

    methinks ICM spend too much time in leafy areas

    methinks there is some wishful thinking going on here...
    Maybe. I think Ukip has a base vote with peaks in certain types of area so sampling matters a lot.

  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    The "Unexpected retirement" is Ken Clarke.

    Unexpected???

  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Baffled as to why UKip should have dropped 7 points – they’ve not been in the news for yonks.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    SimonStClare said:

    Baffled as to why UKip should have dropped 7 points – they’ve not been in the news for yonks.

    Maybe that's the reason.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "Unexpected retirement" is Ken Clarke.

    Unexpected???

    To the general media, UKIP winning the Euros was "unexpected"

    The Lib Dems losing 30 seats at the next GE will probably be a 'disaster'.

    It's not me who makes up their ridiculous expectations management.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I think there will be more UKIP+ Labour than Conservative + Lib Dem in the ICM sample. If I'm wrong I'll be surprised.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone link me to the data tables ?

    Don't expect the data tables till tomorrow at the earliest

  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Cyclefree said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Baffled as to why UKip should have dropped 7 points – they’ve not been in the news for yonks.

    Maybe that's the reason.

    But there is no reason for them to be in the news now that the Euros are behind us. Yes, they can turn their backs when the Ode to Joy is played but that isn't really making a strong policy statement.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Good lord, did Andrea miss this one?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2014/07/cllr-amanda-milling-selected-to-fight-cannock-chase.html
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2014
    Saying to pollsters who you vote for has an element of fashion about it.

    UKIP was in fashion and Lib Dems out of fashion.

    But fashions change and if this ICM trend takes hold, momentim will be with the Conservatives and another coalition with Lib Dems becomes likely.

  • jayfdee
    jayfdee Posts: 618
    David_Evershed said:

    Saying to pollsters who you vote for has an element of fashion about it.

    UKIP was in fashion and Lib Dems out of fashion.

    But fashions change and if this ICM trend takes hold, momentim will be with the Conservatives and another coalition with Lib Dems becomes likely.

    Yes and UKIP could soon be "So last year"
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Boo, years ago, he was my tip for a future Tory leader.

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 24s

    BREAKING: Development Minister Alan Duncan has left the government “at his own request” - so has Northern Ireland Minister Andrew Robathan.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boo, years ago, he was my tip for a future Tory leader.

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 24s

    BREAKING: Development Minister Alan Duncan has left the government “at his own request”

    Don't worry, TSE, no-one followed you in!
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Good lord, did Andrea miss this one?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2014/07/cllr-amanda-milling-selected-to-fight-cannock-chase.html

    You should know better than that! He posted this over the weekend (although he did forget to mention the seat in his excitement)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boo, years ago, he was my tip for a future Tory leader.

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 24s

    BREAKING: Development Minister Alan Duncan has left the government “at his own request”

    Don't worry, TSE, no-one followed you in!
    This was back in the late 90s
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    JohnO said:

    You should know better than that! He posted this over the weekend (although he did forget to mention the seat in his excitement)

    Ah, good. For a moment I thought the world had been turned upside down.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    I take it this was a phone poll ?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I get the feeling this is going to be a bigger reshuffle than anticipated/than normal
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The UKIP loss of 7% has gone to

    Con 3%
    Lib Dem 2%
    Lab 1%

    The proportion of these gains by the parties from UKIP are credible as past supporters return.

    No Lab supporters returning to Lib Dem though as yet.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited July 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Boo, years ago, he was my tip for a future Tory leader.

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 24s

    BREAKING: Development Minister Alan Duncan has left the government “at his own request” - so has Northern Ireland Minister Andrew Robathan.

    His stock has fallen massively. At one point, it seemed like I couldn't turn the telly on without him popping up as the friendly more liberal face of the Tory party, but he got a right bashing over expenses and seems to have been downhill from there.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I get the feeling this is going to be a bigger reshuffle than anticipated/than normal

    What's the point? There's sod all legislation planned iirc.

  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Ed needs to do something interesting. If I was him I'd make a big speech in which he makes it clear that if he doesn't lead Labour into government next year after the general election he will stand down as party leader. Could go something like this:

    'Ladies and gentlemen. One of the problems of modern politics is that people think politicians are only in it for themselves and don't take responsibility when things go wrong. So let me make a commitment to you. As I have repeatedly said the current government is having a terrible impact on the poorest in society and is taking our country in the wrong direction. It is my responsibility to remove the Tories from office and I will blame no-one but myself if I fail to do that. To be clear, if after the next election we are not in government in some way I will stand down as party leader to be replaced by someone else. The most important thing is the party and the leader should never lose sight of that.''

    There are risks involved, but overall I think it would make Miliband look bold and decisive.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I get the feeling this is going to be a bigger reshuffle than anticipated/than normal

    What's the point? There's sod all legislation planned iirc.

    I think it maybe for the media wars between now and the election.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    surbiton said:

    I take it this was a phone poll ?

    Yes
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    FrankBooth said:



    There are risks involved, but overall I think it would make Miliband look bold and decisive.

    The problem with anything like this as it will not be at all authentic - as he has done nothing so far to show that he really can be bold and decisive. It will be seen as a last throw of the dice, a calculated act - and exposed as such.

    He would have needed to have built up a track record of bold, decisive acts for anything like this be credible.
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Labour's poll slump continues.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Nick Hurd out
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Why has David Jones got the sack, he seemed an excellent performer when I saw him on Question Time. Not in the right clique ?
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited July 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Oh lord.

    Let the hysteria commence.

    No, there isn't any - except in the imagination of the Basil bloke. Everything feels a bit odd at the moment and I shan't be surprised if we revert to business as usual and narrow Labour leads. Think how much worse it would be for Labour if ed were weird, or crap.

    The Ukip surge predicated on their immunity to cover up allegations seems not to have occurred.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    One for Alanbrooke

    joncraigSKY ‏@joncraig 3m

    I'm also reliably informed N Ireland minister Andrew Robathan & David Willetts (Science) leaving Govt. "They'll get knighthoods," I'm told.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Stephen Hammond out. Looks like David Willetts is gone as well
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Why has David Jones got the sack, he seemed an excellent performer when I saw him on Question Time. Not in the right clique ?

    His views on gay marriage, and his willingness to air them.
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    oxfordsimon said:

    Nick Hurd out

    The purge of the Etonians intensifies....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    JohnO said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Nick Hurd out

    The purge of the Etonians intensifies....
    Dave, if you're reading, you should ennoble and make a minister the Leader of the Council with the highest Tory share of the vote in the Euros.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    JohnO said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Nick Hurd out

    The purge of the Etonians intensifies....
    Anything that ends a political dynasty (of whatever party) is good for me. Don't care where they went to school, but I do find the concept of a political family dynasty unpalatable.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Now thats what I call an outlier.
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    edited July 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnO said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Nick Hurd out

    The purge of the Etonians intensifies....
    Dave, if you're reading, you should ennoble and make a minister the Leader of the Council with the highest Tory share of the vote in the Euros.
    He is also a grammar school boy and is even willing to have a sex change if that helps.
  • MikeP
    MikeP Posts: 47
    Haven't seen PBers comment on a single poll so much since...err.. the last one that was OK for the Tories.

    Can't think why.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    David Willets also standing down as MP.

    A lot of people will want his seat. Very safe.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    JohnO said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnO said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Nick Hurd out

    The purge of the Etonians intensifies....
    Dave, if you're reading, you should ennoble and make a minister the Leader of the Council with the highest Tory share of the vote in the Euros.
    He is also a grammar school boy and is even willing to have a sex change if that helps.
    The sacrifices you're willing to make for your party and country should not go unrewarded.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Willets also standing down as MP.

    A lot of people will want his seat. Very safe.

    Dissolution honors?
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited July 2014
    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appears to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Willets also standing down as MP.

    A lot of people will want his seat. Very safe.

    Dissolution honors?
    Yes, or The New Year's honours
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appear to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    IIRC - The UKIP plan is to stand in every mainland seat.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appears to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    What price sub 5% ?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Willets also standing down as MP.

    A lot of people will want his seat. Very safe.

    Dissolution honors?
    Yes, or The New Year's honours
    Ah I was thinking of being put upstairs.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appear to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    IIRC - The UKIP plan is to stand in every mainland seat.
    If true that sounds like an expensive exercise!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    TGOHF said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appears to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    What price sub 5% ?
    11/2 on UKIP getting 0-5%

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appears to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    What price sub 5% ?
    11/2 on UKIP getting 0-5%

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage
    That's the value..
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appear to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    IIRC - The UKIP plan is to stand in every mainland seat.
    If true that sounds like an expensive exercise!
    UKIP to stand in all seats at general election

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/34583/
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appears to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand.
    I'm on but DYOR.

    What price sub 5% ?
    11/2 on UKIP getting 0-5%

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage
    That's the value..
    I'm ummming and ahhhing.

    Ah feck it. I'm on.
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeP said:

    Haven't seen PBers comment on a single poll so much since...err.. the last one that was OK for the Tories.

    Can't think why.

    Troll trolls, no surprise there.
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Willets taking the rap for getting the tuition fee sums wrong?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    saddened said:

    MikeP said:

    Haven't seen PBers comment on a single poll so much since...err.. the last one that was OK for the Tories.

    Can't think why.

    Troll trolls, no surprise there.
    You see as many posts on a bad Tory poll commenting on the lack of comments!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    You can get evens on the Lib Dems outpolling UKIP

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet
  • MikeP
    MikeP Posts: 47
    Populus: Ed Miliband PM: majority 32
    Ashcroft: Ed Miliband PM, majority 42
    YouGov: Ed Miliband PM, majority 42
    ICM: Ed Miliband PM, majority 13 short.

    Imagine how much worse it'd be for the Tories if David Cameron was an out of touch upper class twit doing favours for his rich mates.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You can get evens on the Lib Dems outpolling UKIP

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet

    That's nailed on now.
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